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Commodity Report - Apricots

Brian Cusack & Jane Xu

July 2015

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Appendix

1.Supply2.Supply Standards3.Demand4.Supply & Demand5.Prices Index 6.Key Insights & Buying Actions7.Resources & references

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Supply

1.Turkey is world leading supplier• 70-80% of Apricot exports• Only 2-7% of total world fresh apricot share however

2.Harvest Season• Mid June -> beginning of August 3.Import duty – 20% on apricot

imports to China

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SupplyCountry Prod/

Yield ItemName Year Value USD Country Prod/Yield ItemName Year Value USD

Turkey Production Apricots 2013 811609 Turkey Productio

n Apricots 2012 795768

Turkey Yield/hectare Apricots 2013 134774 Turkey Yield/

hectare Apricots 2012 131029.44

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Production Apricots 2013 457308

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Production Apricots 2012 460000

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Yield/hectare Apricots 2013 77871.47

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Yield/hectare Apricots 2012 91089.11

Uzbekistan Production Apricots 2013 430000 Uzbekista

nProduction Apricots 2012 390000

Uzbekistan Yield/hectare Apricots 2013 95555.56 Uzbekista

nYield/hectare Apricots 2012 97500

Algeria Production Apricots 2013 319784 Algeria Productio

n Apricots 2012 269308

Algeria Yield/hectare Apricots 2013 82359.12 Algeria Yield/

hectare Apricots 2012 71078.15

Italy Production Apricots 2013 198290 Italy Productio

n Apricots 2012 247146

Italy Yield/hectare Apricots 2013 104368.65 Italy Yield/

hectare Apricots 2012 128815.8

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Supply

Turkey

Iran

Uzbekistan

Algeria

Italy

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

20132012

Change in production 2012-13

000’s USD

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Supply

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total IndustrialDicedWhole

Turkey - Production by product (MT’s)

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SupplyTurkish Apricot Production

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Supply Standards

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Supply Standards

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Demand

2010 2011 20120

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

TaiwanHong KongChina

Turkish imports – Dried Apricots 000’s tonnes

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Demand

2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

TurkyUzbekistanIran

Apricot (Fresh) Exports (000’s USD/Tonne)

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Demand + Supply

1. World’s larger apricot producer Malatya (province of Turkey) experienced a major frost at the final week of March 2014

• 80% total apricot crop destroyed• 0-30% of average annual yield 2013: 150,000 MT 2014: 75,000 MT 2015: ~95,000 MT

2. Rise in Californian and Uzbekistan apricots to fill market void

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Demand + Supply

1. 2015: Average demand exceeds 105,000 MT

• Exports (~100,000MT) + Domestic cons. (5000MT)

2. Total crop harvest (Malatya) estimate – 95,000 MTAverage exports 2009-2014

(Turkish ministry of food, agriculture and livestock)

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Prices Index

YFG QKP QDT QDT GHT YFI HQG HTU HAF TTN0

500100015002000250030003500400045005000

Price USD/MTAverage price

Chinese Supplier prices 07/07/2015

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YFG – Yummy Food Group ltd.QKP – Qindao Kington Produce ltd.QDT – Qingdao Dacon Trading Co. Ltd.QDT – Qingdao Dacon Trading Co. Ltd.GHT– Golden Harvest Technology Group Co., ltd.YFI – Yummy Food Industrial GroupHCQ – Hebei QG Import & Export Co., Ltd.HTU– Hermes Tarim Urunleri ltd.HAF – Henan Alchemy foodTTN – Tianjin Metal import and export Co., ltd.Contacted through Alibaba.com, made-in-china.com, email

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Prices Index

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

20040060080010001200140016001800

IranTurkey

Producer Apricots price USD/Tonne

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Prices Index

6/1/2015 13/1/20152 27/1/2015 3/2/2015 10/2/2015 24/2/2015

2.062.45

2.1 2.21.9 2

South African apricot exportsPrices EU/KG

Source: ITC weekly statistics

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Key Insights + Buyer Actions 1. Prices fell 47% from August 2014 –

February 2015• Decreased demand after price hikes

(result of crop failure) 2.High prices until September 2015

when crop will be harvested 3. Ozbek + Tajik apricot prices to

rise by 50-60%• Frost damage4. Expected price drop from beginning

of August onwards• Artificially high prices placed by

wholesalers

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Resources + References

• http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pa00jqq8.pdf• http://www.chelmerfoods.com/turkish-apricots-his

torical-data-and-market-report-on-upcoming-crop-2015/

• https://www.agra-net.net/agra/public-ledger/commodities/dried-fruit/apricots/

• http://www.globaltrading.nl/News/Apricots• http://www.chelmerfoods.com/wp-content/uploads/2

015/06/Apricots-Data-Last-10-years-World-2005-2014-.pdf

• http://www.malatyaapricot.com/• http://www.21food.com/product/search_keys-turkis

h+dried+apricots-p1.html• Email correspondence with domestic and

international suppliers