Advancing Growth

2015 North American Light Vehicle Aluminum

Content Study

Executive SummaryJune 2014

Executive Summary

Key Findings2015

In 2015:• Pickup trucks will contain the most aluminum at 548.9 lbs. per vehicle, followed closely by E Segment

sedans at 546.9 lbs., SUVs at 410.3 lbs. and minivans at 396.5 lbs. All other segments will be below the average content of 394 pounds per vehicle.

• Tesla, Mercedes, BMW and Ford will all exceed the average aluminum content and the average aluminum share of curb weight.

• The F-150 will contain 1,080 pounds of aluminum. Aluminum sheet and extruded products for the body and closures are over one half of this content.

• The total aluminum content for the 17.46 million vehicles of expected production will equal nearly 7 billion pounds. Body and closure parts will be 11% of the total.

• Total North American light vehicle aluminum consumption will increase by 28% in 2015 over 2012.• Consumption will surpass all records set in previous decades by one billion pounds.• Aluminum hood penetration will increase from 34% in 2012 to 48% in 2015. • More than 500,000 pickup trucks and EV’s (a combined total) will have complete aluminum bodies,

and have a content of over 500 million pounds of aluminum.

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Executive Summary

Key Future Projections 2025

Within the Decade: • Seven out of 10 new pickup trucks produced in North American will be aluminum-bodied. • Every leading automaker will have an aluminum body program in place. • Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler will be the biggest users of aluminum sheet.• Aluminum hood penetration will reach 85% and doors will reach 46%; complete bodies will reach

18%, from less than one percent today. This will drive total aluminum content to 547 pounds per vehicle.

• The total North American aluminum content will be 10 billion pounds.• Aluminum will comprise more than 75% of pickup truck body and closure parts, 24% of E Segment

body and closure parts, 22% of SUV body and closure parts and 18% of minivan body and closure parts.

• Aluminum sheet for light vehicle body and closure parts will grow from less than 200 million pounds in 2012 to nearly 4 billion pounds.

• On a volume basis, 26.6% of all the body and closure parts will be made of aluminum.• The gross weight savings from aluminum body and closure use will be 175 pounds per vehicle.• Globally, light vehicle aluminum content will approach 35 billion pounds, making light vehicles the

most important global market for aluminum.

3

Executive Summary

Aluminum content will break with the long term 40 year trend line in 2015 as aluminum penetration for body parts, doors and closures (other than hoods) finally reaches the critical mass for an explosive period of growth from 2015 to 2025.

350

394

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Net

Pou

nds p

er V

ehic

le

Calendar Year

Net Aluminum Pounds per Light Vehicle

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Executive Summary

22.3

12.6

5.4

32 1.4 1.50

5

10

15

20

25

Net Gains in Pounds per Vehicle

-2.4

-1.2-0.3

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0Engines Control Arms

& LinksOther Losses

Net Losses in Pounds per Vehicle

Component or System Changes for Aluminum Content in 2015 versus 2012

+48.2 lbs. (3.9) lbs.

Large content increases for body parts, closures and larger transmission cases will more than offset small content losses for smaller engines and stiff competition from new steels for suspension control arms over the period 2012 to 2015.

The net increase is expected to be a plus 44.3 pounds per vehicle from 2012 to 2015 compared to an increase of only 10 pounds per vehicle from 2010 to 2012.

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Executive Summary

Total North American light vehicle aluminum consumption will increase by 28% in 2015 over 2012.

– The increase is an equal combination of more vehicles and more aluminum content per vehicle.

Consumption in 2015 will surpass any records set in previous decades by one billion pounds.

5395

6886

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2012 2015

Mill

ions

of P

ound

s

Aluminum Consumption for Light Vehicles

6

Executive Summary

In 2015, the total aluminum content for the 17.46 million vehicles of expected production will equal nearly 7 billion pounds.

– Body and closure parts will be 11% of the total.– 33% of the content will be for engine parts.

161

803

812

629

1325

658

1083

173

243

143

80

777

0 500 1000 1500

All other

Blocks

Heads

Other Engine

Transmission & Driveline

Heat Transfer

Wheels

Brakes

Steering

Suspension

Bumpers

Body & Closures

Millions of Net Al Pounds by Component/System

2%

12%

12%

9%

19%10%

16%

2%

4%

2%1%

11%

Component/System Share of Al Consumption

All other Blocks

Heads Other Engine

Transmission & Driveline Heat Transfer

Wheels Brakes

Steering Suspension

Bumpers Body & Closures

6.9 Billion Pounds

7

Executive Summary

Aluminum’s share of the 3,798-pound curb weight in 2015 is expected to be 10.4%. – This is compared to the 9% share of the 3,828-pound curb weight in 2012.

Tesla, Mercedes, BMW and Ford will exceed the average aluminum content and the average aluminum share of curb weight for 2015 .

9.0%

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Executive Summary

2015 Vehicle Segment Average Aluminum Pounds and Share of 2015 Production

A/B SegmentFiat 500Ford Fiesta

C SegmentFord FocusHonda Civic

D SegmentChevy MalibuDodge ChargerMUSTANG

E SegmentCadillac XTSSTING RAY

MPV SegmentHonda OdysseyChrysler Town & Country

SUV SegmentChevy SuburbanJeep Grand Cherokee

VAN SegmentDodge SprinterFord Transit

PUP SegmentFord F150Ram 1500

251.6 lb.’s

273.9 lb.’s

363.3 lb.’s

546.9 lb.’s

396.5 lb.’s

410.3 lb.’s

273.2 lb.’s

548.9 lb.’s

As aluminum content spreads across vehicle segments, the E Segment, SUV Segment and PUP Segment emerge as content leaders.

3% of Production

17% of Production

21% of Production

2% of Production

4% of Production

33% of Production

2% of Production

17% of Production

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Executive Summary

The aluminum-bodied F-150 goes into production later this year. This is the first high-volume aluminum-bodied vehicle to go into production in the world. When the program reaches full production in 2016, Ford will be making 850,000 trucks per year

and require 350,000 tons of aluminum sheet per annum.

The 2015 Ford F-150 is a test case for a high-volume aluminum vehicle, achieving ~ 700 lbs. of weight savings over the current model.

Redesigned 2015 F-150

600 Pounds (Excludes 70 pounds of extruded aluminum products)

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Executive Summary

7%6%

3%

6%1%

2%

1%3%

1%7%

1%

0%21%

26%

9%

3%3% 1%

2015 F-150 Crew Cab Net Aluminum Content Blocks

HeadsOther EngineTransmission CasesOther TransmissionDifferential CarriersDrive shafts & YokesHeat ExchangersHeat Shields and SinksWheelsBrakesSteeringClosuresBody Sheet HTBody Sheet NHTBody ShapesBody TubeAll other

1,080 Pounds25% of Curb Weight

2015 F150 Crew Cab Lbs. / VehicleCY2015

Blocks 71Heads 66

Other Engine 37Transmission Cases 68Other Transmission 12Differential Carriers 17

Drive shafts & Yokes 7Heat Exchangers 32

Heat Shields and Sinks 10Wheels 72Brakes 6

Steering 5Closures 223

Body Sheet HT 281Body Sheet NHT 96

Body Shapes 31Body Tube 37

All other 9Total 1080

The 2015 Ford F-150 will have over 1,000 pounds of net aluminum content, or approximately 25% of its curb weight.

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Executive Summary

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mill

ions

of P

ound

s

NA Aluminum Sheet DemandFor Auto Body and Closure Parts

Aluminum sheet for light vehicle body and closure parts will grow from less than 200 million pounds in 2012 to nearly 4 billion pounds by 2025.

This growth of aluminum rolled products for automotive applications will require a tremendous increase in heat treating capacity.

Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler will be the biggest users of aluminum sheet

Every leading automaker will have several aluminum body and closure panel programs by 2025.

26.6% of all the body and closure parts on a volume basis will be made of aluminum in 2025.

70% of the aluminum sheet will need to be 6xxx heat treatable sheet.

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Executive Summary

The number of vehicles with aluminum closures and complete body structures will increase by significant proportions over the next ten years.

34%

48%

6% 6% 7%4% 4%

73%

19%

28% 26% 24%

9%

85%

27%

46%

33%30%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Hoods Fenders Doors Trunk/Gate Roof Complete Bodies

Shar

e of

All

Ligh

t Veh

icle

s

Aluminum Penetration for Closures and Complete Bodies

2012 2015 2020 2025

The chart does not include the numerous vehicles that will also have partial body structures, vacuum die cast shock towers and other VD cast body parts.

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Executive Summary

The material mix for body and closure parts will change dramatically over the next ten years. On a weight basis, aluminum will grow to 19% of the weight for body and closure parts by 2025.

861, 84%

154, 15%

8, 1% 2012

Mild and HSLA

AHSS/UHSS

Aluminum Sheet

Aluminum Extrusions

Aluminum VD Castings 751, 76%

201, 20%

37, 4%

3, 0%

1, 0% 2015

Mild and HSLA

AHSS/UHSS

Aluminum Sheet

Aluminum Extrusions

Aluminum VD Castings

559, 59%277, 29%

92, 10%

8, 1%5, 1% 2020

Mild and HSLA

AHSS/UHSS

Aluminum Sheet

Aluminum Extrusions

Aluminum VD Castings

366, 41%

357, 40%

144, 16%

13, 2%8, 1% 2025

Mild and HSLA

AHSS/UHSS

Aluminum Sheet

Aluminum Extrusions

Aluminum VD Castings

1023 lbs. 993 lbs.

941 lbs. 888 lbs.

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Executive Summary

A mild, HSLA and bake hard steel body structure with closures weighs on average 1,060 pounds. This excludes bumpers and the 500-pound ladder frame for pickup trucks. By 2025, the weight for the average body with closures will be 888 pounds.

– This is based on a constant vehicle footprint of 49 square feet. New materials, including aluminum, will continue to save weight without sacrificing safety, size or

efficiency.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Net

Pou

nds f

or B

ody

and

Clos

ures

Aluminum VD Castings

Aluminum Extrusions

Aluminum Sheet

AHSS/UHSS

Mild and HSLA

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Executive Summary

By 2025, 26.6% of all the body and closure parts for light vehicles in North America will be made of aluminum (measured by volume rather than weight).

A burst of aluminum activity is expected in the few years leading up to the 2025 EPA mandate of 161 grams of CO2 per mile taking full effect.

1.4% 1.7%3.2%

6.6%

9.3%10.7% 11.5%

13.7%

16.9%19.0%

20.2%22.1%

25.6%26.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Aluminum Volume Share of Body and Closure Components

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Pickup trucks will demonstrate the highest penetration of aluminum parts for bodies and closures at more than 75% by 2025.

If the fuel economy achieved with powertrain changes does not achieve projected levels, additional fuel economy improvements can be achieved through additional aluminum based weight savings on C, D and SUV segment vehicles. Other segments such as minivans and E segment cars are also candidates for additional weight savings, but their volumes are too small to have a significant impact on CO2 emissions.

22.1%

4.0% 4.8%

59.3%

11.5% 10.8%

75.9%

22.0%17.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Pickup Trucks SUV / CUV Minivan

2015 2020 2025

Aluminum Volume Share of Body and Closure Components by Vehicle Type

Executive Summary

17

Executive Summary

In the car segments, E Segment vehicles will show the highest aluminum penetration for body and closure parts at nearly 24% by 2025.

Weight savings estimates remain conservative for C segment and D segment cars given they are the prime candidates for hybrid and electric powertrains. Alternative powertrain assumptions will be severely challenged by the high cost of hybrid, plug-in and all-electric technologies. A low-cost, low weight battery solution is not yet on the horizon.

Aluminum Volume Share of Body and Closure Components by C, D & E Segment Cars

4.7%2.5%

0.7%

7.8%

5.2%3.9%

23.9%

13.8%

8.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

E Segment D Segment C Segment

2015 2020 2025

18

33%

41%

23%

2% 1%2025

Mild and HSLA

AHSS/UHSS

Aluminum Sheet

Aluminum Extrusions

Aluminum VD Castings

Executive Summary Extensive use of aluminum, dual phase, complex phase and press hardened steels will be required to

remove 150-200 pounds out of the average auto body with closures by 2025. To remove more than 200 pounds it will require aluminum to be used for over 30% of the parts.

81%

18%

1%2012

Mild and HSLA

AHSS/UHSS

Aluminum Sheet

Aluminum Extrusions

Aluminum VD Castings71%

23%

6%

2015

Mild and HSLA

AHSS/UHSS

Aluminum Sheet

Aluminum Extrusions

Aluminum VD Castings

52%

31%

15%

1% 1% 2020

Mild and HSLA

AHSS/UHSS

Aluminum Sheet

Aluminum Extrusions

Aluminum VD Castings

Light Vehicle Body and Closure Part Volume Share by Material

19

Executive Summary

As aluminum grows to 26% of the part volume for light vehicle bodies and closures, the total amount of material needed in 2025 will decline by over 3 billion pounds per year over the need in 2012.

Cumulative Savingsof 175 pounds per vehicle

from 239 poundsof Aluminum Additions

per vehicle

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mill

ions

of P

ound

s Sav

ed

Savings due to Aluminum Sheet Savings due to Aluminum Extrusions

Savings due to Aluminum VD Castings

Gross Weight Savings for Body & Closure Parts 2012-2025

Private and Confidential 20

Executive Summary

Fifty years of uninterrupted aluminum growth for North American manufactured light vehicles is guaranteed. There is nothing on the horizon that would indicate that this burst in aluminum growth can be significantly slowed over the next ten years.

120139

165

212

258

306

340

394

473

547

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Net

Pou

nds p

er V

ehic

le

Calendar Year

Aluminum Net Pounds per North American Light Vehicle

21

Executive Summary

Aluminum heat treated and non-heat treated sheet, extruded shapes and tube as well as vacuum assisted high pressure die castings are the products that will benefit the most from the need to use more aluminum to save weight and improve fuel economy by 90% by 2025.

All other product forms including conventional HPDC, permanent mold castings, brazing sheet, fin stock, rod and bar and forgings will only increase by 27 pounds in total over the period 2012 to 2025.

13.419.1

42

24.6

1

97

35

7

150

42

12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Rolled Products Extruded Produts Vacuum Die Castings

Net

Pou

nds p

er V

ehic

le

Net Pounds per Vehicle for Select Product Forms

2012

2015

2020

2025

This chart excludes rod and bar, fin stock, brazing sheet, forgings and all castings except VDC

22

Executive Summary

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1999 2012 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ions

of T

ons

Global Light Vehicle Aluminum UseHistory and Forecast

(includes scrap)

Primary Secondary

43%

55%54 Million Vehicles

57%

45%

8.7

Will be closer to 50/50,if sheet promptscrap is closedloop recycled

4.9

11.4

14.8

30 - 35 million tons if the world follows NA

120 Million Vehicles

18 Million Ton Base20 Million Ton Upside

Light vehicles will be the most important global market for aluminum in the coming decade.

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This concludes our report. Thank you.

This presentation was prepared by Ducker Worldwide LLC. Opinions and estimates constitutejudgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Anyinterpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of the client.Reproduction without the explicit consent of DuckerWorldwide LLC is strictly prohibited.

For 50 years, Ducker Worldwide has enabled clients to navigate and thrive in a dynamic, global marketplace.Our unique and proven combination of custom market intelligence, critical thinking and strategic consultingcreate valuable opportunities that deliver critical results.

For more information regarding our strategic services, expertise and to learn how Ducker Worldwide can helpyou, please contact one of our team members at 248-644-0086 or visit our website at www.ducker.com

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