Seminar Saham

Presented By : Hery Gunawan Muhamad

PT. Sarijaya Permana SekuritasRetail Division

Yogyakarta BranchGedung AA YKPN

Jl. Langensari No 45 Balapan Yogyakarta 55222Phone (0274) 550503 Fax. (0274) 550538

DEPKEU

BAPEPAM

BEJ BESKSEI(LKP)

KPEI(LPP)

KPEI(LPP)

ANGGOTA BURSA/PE

PERUSAHAAN NON AB

INVESTOR

How the Market work

Apakah ‘Price’ ? Apakah ‘Market’ ?

BID Harga OFFER

2075 185

2050 200

1003 2025

585 2000

320 1975

Beli saham ABCD:

• Rp 2025, 23 lot

• Rp 2000, 585 lot

• Rp 2025, 980 lot

• Rp 1975, 320 lot

Jual saham ABCD:

• Rp 2050, 200 lot

• Rp 2075, 185 lot

Jika Jual saham ABCD di Rp 2025 sebanyak 3 lot,maka Bid tinggal 1000 lot. Time and Price Priority

ABCD

BID Harga OFFER

2075 185

2050 200

1003 2025

585 2000

320 1975

BUYERSSELLERS

ABCD

Motivasi ?

Motivasi?

Fakta!

Buyers dan Sellers selalu dalam keadaan konfrontasi. Buyers ingin murah, sellers ingin mahal. Sesekali ada kompromi, saat buyers/sellers mengalah.

If you say I’ve made a mistake on the portfolio construction why it is still profit?

The right trading strategy does not always come with profit

And the profit does not always come with the right trading strategy…

”Lucky” profit will not be consistent!

Business risk – Carried by the uncertainty of the core business of the company

Liquidity risk – the risk of the low trading activity of the secondary market of the stock, and high bid-offer spread

Fundamental Analysis◦ Select the market leader of each industry by

comparing the financial ratio with the performance of its industry

◦ Winning company not always be the winning investment, so we calculate the fairness of its pricing

◦ Company selected must be supported by steady growth of its operational and profitability measures

Technical Analysis ◦ To optimize the opportunity of each Rupiah

invested, Investment decision must be made to the stocks that moves in the most powerful uptrend

◦ The decision based on historical study of price movement and measures the probability of its movement by several technical indicator

◦ Technical analysis says :”We know where we stop when we are wrong”

1. Market price discounts everything : TA do not concern themselves with reasons why price rise or fall. This is because market participants act upon expectations or upon information not yet published.

2. Price move are not entirely random and move in trend : Market are “efficient”

3. Human nature is constant : TA are able to watch what is happening on a price chart, interpret how buyers and sellers are reacting to a situation and to frame a view about likely directions of prices.

1. Trend Analysis

2. Price & Volume Analysis

3. Pattern Analysis

4. Indicator Analysis

1. Up Trend

2. Down Trend

3. Non Trend/SidewaysMajor Middle &Minor Trend, Commitment Buying/Selling, Support/Resistance,Note : Time Frame

15 22 5June

12 19 26 3July

10 17 24 31 7August

14 28 4 11 18September

25 2 9October

16 30 6 13November

20 27 4 11December

18 26 82007

15 22 29 5 12February

19 26 5March

12

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

2500

2550

2600

2650

2700

2750

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

161.8%

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

161.8%

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

BMRI (2,425.00, 2,450.00, 2,375.00, 2,425.00, +25.0000)

10000

20000

30000

40000

x10000

Volume (26,052,500)

13 20 27 4December

11 18 26 22007

8 15 22 29 5February

12 19 26 5March

12

102030405060708090Volume (10,186,000), Stochastic Oscillator (65.0000)

8400

8500

8600

8700

8800

8900

9000

9100

9200

9300

9400

9500

9600

9700

9800

9900

10000

10100

10200

10300

10400

10500

10600

10700

10800

10900

11000TLKM

15 22 29 5February

12 19 26March

5 12 20 26 2April

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

PGAS (9,000.00, 9,100.00, 9,000.00, 9,100.00, +100.000)

0

50

Stochastic Oscillator (20.6897), Volume (3,014,500)

Remember that:# trend is determined by price action# trend lines are only measuring the rate of

change of price in trend

So, Trend Lines do not end Trends, It’s only give a Warning that the Trend is losing Momentum.

Penetration of Trend Line:

1. Closing2. The Two Days Reversal3. The 3% Rule

1. Open : emotional reaction of public

2. High : maximum power of buyers3. Low : maximum power of seller4. Closing : professional take profit,

conclusion of the daily battle

1. Volume Up, Price Up, Up Trend

2. Volume Up, Price Down, Down Trend

3. Volume Down, Price Up, Correction

4. Volume Down, Price Down, Correction

Bar Chart Candlestick

Trend Major, Middle & Minor Up(Price)

• 25-200 Rp 1,-

• <500 Rp 5,-

• 500-2000 Rp 10,-

• 2000-5000 Rp 25,-

• >5000 Rp 50,-

1. Last High Last Low

2. Trend Line

3. Channel/Trend Channel1. Up Channel2. Low Channel

Dow TheoryThe Market has three movement

1. Primary Trend2. Secondary Reaction3. Daily Fluctuation

Sideways (Non Trend)1. Reversal2. Continuation

Note:a. Support & Resistance b. Break Up/Down c. Target Price after break

StrategyBuying : Buy 1st at Break

Buy 2nd at Pull Back

Selling : PartialOn target

Note : Falls break TP (pattern)

Double/Triple TopDouble/Triple BottomHead & Shoulder (Left, Right, Neck Line)Inverse Head & Shoulder

Continuation/ReversalTriangle (Ascending & Descending)Flag

19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 1March

2 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 16 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 2April

3 4 5


8450

8500

8550

8600

8650

8700

8750

8800

8850

8900

8950

9000

9050

9100

9150

9200

9250

9300

9350

9400

9450

9500

9550

9600

9650

9700

9750

9800

9850TLKM

15 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 1 2March

5 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 16 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 2April

3 4 5


8450

8500

8550

8600

8650

8700

8750

8800

8850

8900

8950

9000

9050

9100

9150

9200

9250

9300

9350

9400

9450

9500

9550

9600

9650

9700

9750

9800

9850TLKM

2005 April May June July August September November 2006 February April May June July August September November 2007 February April

3800

3900

4000

4100

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

5300

5400

5500

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

6200

6300

6400

6500

6600

6700

6800

6900

7000

7100

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

161.8%

ISAT (5,850.00, 5,900.00, 5,800.00, 5,800.00, +0.0)

-200-100

0100200

Volume (2,617,000), Stochastic Oscillator (25.0000), MACD (-31.1421)

25 2 9October

16 30 6November

13 20 27 4 11December

18 26 22007

8 15 22 29 5February

12 19 26 5March

12 20 26 2April

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

100.0%

161.8%

261.8%

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

161.8%

LSIP (5,650.00, 5,950.00, 5,650.00, 5,900.00, +250.000)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


December 2006 February March April May June July August September October November December 2007 February March April

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500PGAS (9,000.00, 9,100.00, 9,000.00, 9,100.00, +100.000)

0

50

Stochastic Oscillator (20.6897), Volume (3,014,500)

Modern Analysis1. Trend Following

lagging/late, in trendExample : MA5 average 5 days before,

Price > MA Buy Price < MA Sell Price Down near MA Buy

2. Momentum Indicatorclosing price, non trend/sidewaysExample : Over Bought (Sell)

Over Sold (Buy)

1. Fundamental Analysis2. Technical Analysis3. Trading Tactic4. Capital/Money Management

1. Global Market

2. Regional Market

3. JCI/JSE/IHSG

4. Stocks or Individual Stock

Portfolio Management◦ Diversify investment to 8-10 different industry or

stock ◦ Select the market leader of each industry◦ Create the maximum tolerable percentage of loss

each transaction◦ Select stock that do not move together (negative

correlation) to optimize the power of diversification

Stock Picking Process :◦ Find stock that both the excellent company

(included in MSCI index) AND liquid stock (included in LQ45 Index)

Find the Timing :◦ At the beginning of the estimated uptrend◦ Stock that still move in healthy uptrend

The Portfolio Management Thing :◦ Allocated by observing the power of

diversification!

The Fact : Investment in Stocks Carrying High Risk Profile

High Risk means it has a higher risk than the other investment alternatives

Do not means uncontrollable risk!

We set the maximum stop loss percentage each trading

The best position when the market is uncertain is no position

Potential Gain VS Potential Loss Setting the Stop Loss Calculate time-adjusted-return

◦ 150 to 200 = 33% (expected 6 Months)◦ Or 5.5% per month◦ Or 0.275% per days!◦ Ex : TLKM 7000, Gain 0.275% per days = 19.25

Be careful with average down…

2 M

1 M

4 M

Past

NOW

?Key Success Factor ?

You Can Learn, We Can Teach

Seminar Saham

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Seminar Saham