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Seminar Ilmiah dan Lokakarya Sagu Nasional 2016Masyarakat Sagu Indonesia (MASSI) bekerjasama dengan Institut

Pertanian Bogor dan Kementerian Pertanian. “PERAN SAGU UNTUK KEDAULATAN PANGAN DAN KEMANDIRIAN

ENERGI”Bogor, 9 November 2016

Adhi LukmanChairman of Indonesian Food and Beverage Industry Association

Pemanfaatan Sagu dalam Industri Makanan dan Minuman

Development of F&B Industry

GDP Growth in 2012 – 2016 (YoY %)

Source : BPS , calculated by Kemenperin

F&B Growth 8.2 % and Contribution 33% to GDP Non Oil Industry Sector

**Temporary*** very temporary

2014Medium -

LargeSmall

& Micro Total

Food 5,793 1,125,425 1,131,218

Beverages 344 43,293 43,637

Total 6,137 1,168,718 1,174,855

% 0.52 99.48 100.00

Number of establishment

INDICATOR 2012 2013 2014 2015** Q2 2016***

GDP Growth 6.03 5.56 5.02 4.79 5.18

GDP Growth Non Oil Industry 6,98 5,45 5,61 5.04 4.74

F&B Growth base in 2010 10,33 4,07 9,49 7.54 8.20

Contribution to GDP Non-Oil Industry Sector 29,52 29,01 29,74 30.86 33.26

Industry Policy (Ministry of Industry2016)

“Industri Prioritas berbasis Agro diarahkan pada hilirisasi Industri Hulu Agro, Industri Pangan dan Industri Furnitur dan Barang Lainnya dari Kayu.”

a. Industri pengolahan Ikan dan Hasil Laut

b. Industri Bahan Penyegar.c. Industri Pengolahan

Minyak Nabati.d. Industri Pengolahan

Buah-Buahan dan Sayuran.

e. Industri Tepung.f. Industri gula berbasis

tebu.

a. Industri Oleofood.b. Industri Oleokimia.c. Industri Kemurgi.d. Industri Pakan.e. Industri Barang dari

Kayu.f. Industri Pulp dan

Kertas.

Dec-15 Oct-16Total inflation 3.35 2.11Food Raw Material 4.93 3.44 Processed food, drink, cigarette 6.42 4.64Housing, water, electricity, gas & fuel 3.34 1.55Clothing 3.43 3.54Health 5.32 3.28Education, recreation, and sport 3.97 2.66Transportation, communication & financial service (1.53) (1.89)

Source: BPS ( 2016)Combined Inflation Rate of 82 Cities (2014 – 2016)

YoY: Oct 2016 Inflation is 2.11%. However, Food Material & Processed Food, Drink, Cigarette accounted the highest contribution

The Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia

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A Global Investment Destination

Rising Direct Investments1 Large Investments Relative to Peers within the Region2

The Economist: Top 3 investment destination in Asia (Jan 2016)3

JBIC: The most preferred place for business investment after India (Dec 2015)4

Investment Performance: F&B Investment Realization

Source: BKPM

INVESTMENT2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Sept)

P I P I P I P I P I

DDI 222 11,166.70 434 15,080.90 493.0 19,596.39 879 24,533.99 736 24,005.20 (Rp. Billions)

FDI 347 1,782.90 797 2,117.80 1,054.0 3,139.60 886 1,521.18 1,303 1,620.88 (USD million)

Total 569 1,231 1,547.0 1,514 2,039

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Trade Balance of Semi processed & Processed Food in 2014-2016In USD . Source: BPS/ Ministry of Trade

Indonesia – World – ASEAN - RCEP Export Import Balanced

2014 2015 2016 Jul 2014 2015 2016 Jul 2014 2015 2016 Jul

6,353,427,439 6,002,001,194 3,347,172,108 7,304,062,157 6,278,094,256 3,604,893,645 (950,634,718) (276,093,062) (257,721,537)

CountryExport Import Balanced

2014 2015 2016 Jul 2014 2015 2016 Jul 2014 2015 2016 Jul

MALAYSIA 813,305,570 785,566,583 407,077,452 392,852,447 331,810,997 215,999,551 420,453,123 453,755,586 191,077,901

PHILIPPINE 456,899,018 468,351,572 301,304,466 29,956,751 25,143,725 17,428,742 426,942,267 443,207,847 283,875,724

SINGAPORE 309,196,623 268,166,469 163,996,628 215,983,590 186,202,973 101,998,853 93,213,033 81,963,496 61,997,775

VIETNAM 223,762,918 231,197,14 144,553,335 24,189,870 49,755,636 23,032,406 199,573,048 181,441,509 121,520,929

CAMBODIA 307,079,757 271,217,783 162,673,888 18,170 22,817 0 307,061,587 271,194,966 162,673,888

THAILAND 187,767,449 186,750,794 116,947,080 870,044,570 856,477,952 758,671,493 (682,277,121) (669,727,158) (641,724,413)

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

13,244,236 13,901,646 7,766,226 0 0 0 13,244,236 13,901,646 7,766,226

MYANMAR 10,596,204 14,715,019 12,544,544 2,463,692 3,879,744 1,679,091 8,132,512 10,835,275 10,865,453

LAOS 123,094 152,381 95,905 50,617,818 741,902 165 (50,494,724) (589,521) 95,740

Sub TOTAL 2,321,974,869 2,240,019,392 1,316,959,524 1,586,126,908 1,454,035,746 1,118,810,301 735,847,961 785,983,646 198,149,223

JAPAN 250,862,770 226,707,352 123,268,664 19,085,240 19,799,056 11,615,941 231,777,530 207,622,112 111,652,723

PR of CHINA 284,715,924 311,181,650 162,143,986 711,277,907 560,982,575 391,658,989 (426,561,983) (249,800,925) (229,515,003)

SOUTH KOREA 266,142,310 149,784,454 94,782,635 107,400,680 99,083,843 58,242,168 158,741,630 50,700,611 36,540,467

NEW ZEALAND 191,879,150 130,146,361 52,923,524 79,783,943 64,563,264 31,055,777 112,095,207 65,583,097 21,867,747

AUSTRALIA 156,792,692 171,938,542 78,879,340 534,128,428 511,516,419 238,674,278 (377,335,736) (339,577,877) (159,794,938)

INDIA 73,159,685 80,753,824 52,128,253 177,847,853 90,199,505 48,154,688 (104,688,168) 9,445,681 3,973,565

TOTAL 3,545,527,400 3,310,531,575 1,881,085,926 3,215,650,959 2,800,180,408 1,898,212,142 329,876,441 529,956,345 (17,126,216)

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Indonesia - TPP

CountryExport Import Balanced

2014 2015 2016 Jul 2014 2015 2016 Jul 2014 2015 2016 Jul

SINGAPORE 309,196,623 268,166,469 163,996,628 215,983,590 186,202,973 101,998,853 93,213,033 81,963,496 61,997,775

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

13,244,236 13,901,646 7,766,226 0 0 0 13,244,236 13,901,646 7,766,226

NEW ZEALAND 191,879,150 130,146,361 52,923,524 79,783,943 64,563,264 31,055,777 112,095,207 65,583,097 21,867,747

CHILE 2,313,870 1,419,837 573,066 5,329,290 5,800,607 8,557,652 (3,015,420) (4,380,770) (7,984,586)

UNITED STATES 961,030,320 907,391,537 506,709,371 776,565,675 702,020,950 354,686,525 184,464,645 205,370,587 152,022,846

AUSTRALIA 156,792,692 171,938,542 78,879,340 534,128,428 511,516,419 238,674,278 (377,335,736) (339,577,877) (159,794,938)

PERU 1,298,884 1,225,880 409,187 40,611,457 16,246,453 9,021,841 (39,312,573) (15,020,573) (8,612,654)

VIETNAM 223,762,918 231,197,145 144,553,335 24,189,870 49,755,636 23,032,406 199,573,048 181,441,509 121,520,929

MALAYSIA 813,305,570 785,566,583 407,077,452 392,852,447 331,810,997 215,999,551 420,453,123 453,755,586 191,077,901

MEXICO 22,812,144 43,940,837 17,900,826 3,576,119 1,598,698 1,002,540 19,236,025 42,342,139 16,898,286

CANADA 33,980,315 29,835,003 22,683,636 50,441,403 25,209,561 7,506,009 (16,461,088) 4,625,442 15,177,627

JAPAN 250,862,770 226,707,352 123,268,664 19,085,240 19,799,056 207,622,112 231,777,530 207,622,112 (84,353,448)

TOTAL 2,980,479,492 2,811,437,192 1,526,741,255 2,142,547,462 1,835,882,102 1,199,157,544 837,932,030 897,626,394 327,583,711

Trade Balance of Semi processed & Processed Food in 2014-2016In USD . Source: BPS/ Ministry of Trade

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Ease Of Doing

Business Index 2016

# 91 of 190 (109 of 189)

Countries

#6 in ASEAN

The Global Competitiveness Index

2016 –2017

41 of 138

(37 of 140)

Countries

#4 in ASEAN

LogisticPerformanc

e Index 2016

63 0f 160 (53 of 160)Countries

#4 in ASEAN

Labor Productivit

y per worker GDP

2012

#4 in ASEAN

Global Food Security

Index 2016

71 of 113 Countries

#5 in ASEAN

The Global Innovation Index 2015

97 of 141 Countries

#5 in ASEAN

INDONESIA in the World Rank

Opportunities & Challenges in the Free Trade Region:

AEC 2015 & OthersPOTENSIAL MARKET INTEGRATION?

The Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia

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World’s Largest Markets

Global Population

United StatesPopulation: 322 millionGDP: USD 17.42 trillion

European Union (EU)514 million

USD 18.46 trillion

India1,252 million

USD 2.05 trillion

China1,368 million

USD 10.35 trillion

Southeast Asian (ASEAN)618 million

USD 2.16 trillion

Source: World Bank, CIA World Factbook, 2016.

Asia-PacificInward FDI 2015

USD billion Share

ASEAN 107 35%India 60 20%China 52 17%Others 82 27%Total 302 100%

45%

25%

17%

9%4%

Asia-Pacific

America

Europe

AfricaMid-East

Global Inward FDI 2015[Source: FDI Markets of the Financial Times, 2016]

Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board

Indonesia – In the Heart of Global Market

Concentration

*) Associaton of Southeast Asian Nations. Source: OECD, BCG & FT, ASEAN, IMF 2015.

Global Market ConcentrationHalf of world’s population are in this area

Southeast Asia(10 ASEAN countries)

ASEAN* Indonesia

Population (million) 618 255 (41%)

Labor force (million) 285 124 (44%)

GDP (Nominal, USD billion) 2,158 896 (42%)

GDP per capita (Nominal, USD) 3,911 3,416

Middle-income class (million) 190 64 (34%)

FDI inflow 2015 (USD billion) 107 37 (34%)

Jakarta

ASEAN is GREATER INDONESIA

• The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will open trade within the region and provide growing export opportunities

• Indonesia is an attractive investment base from which to supply to local customers and neighboring countries

• Despite fast growth in recent years, the market's potential is far from exhausted

Opportunity in AEC Era

ASEAN Middle Class 2012 2020(AC Nielsen)

Competitiveness in Manufacture(MacKinsey, 2014)

Accenture Strategy (2015): 100 million New Consumers to win & a $ 770 billion reason to move now

Growth of the ASEAN Consumers Goods Market (billions US)

ASEAN’s Challenges: Fragmentation, Rapid Evolution and Stiff Competition (Accenture, 2015)

Analysing The 2016 Asia Pacific Food And Beverage Industry http://www.apfoodonline.com/index.php/bf/item/793-analysing-the-2016-asia-pacific-food-industry

• The Asia Pacific F&B industry is expected to achieve a turnover of US$3.23 trillion in 2016 after growing to almost the same level as the rest of the world combined.

• Projected y-on-y growth of 11% in 2016, the industry will outpace the second and third largest regions—Western Europe and North America—which will see relatively modest expansion rates of 2% & 4% respectively.

• China, Japan, and Indonesia are set to rank as the leading F&B producers in Asia Pacific in 2016, together accounting for just over three quarters of total turnover.

• Although the countries in Asia Pacific are highly diverse in terms of income levels, demographics, and dietary preferences, the industry is nevertheless shaped by several common trends.

Asia Pacific beverage turnover will account for 11 % of the joint F&B industry in 2016 after reaching US$365 billion. In value terms, alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks will account for nearly equal shares of the industry.

Analysing The 2016 Asia Pacific Food And Beverage Industry http://www.apfoodonline.com/index.php/bf/item/793-analysing-the-2016-asia-pacific-food-industry

The New International Trade Order• Trade is no longer dominated by products, but in tasks and components.

• According to UNCTAD, 60% of global trade is in intermediate goods and services.

› Share of Foreign Value-Added in global exports is 28% (22% for food products)

Why are Global Value Chains (GVC) important?

• Industrial organisation (and economic opportunities for participation) is increasingly shaped by the actor practices of globally coordinated lead firms

• “There is a positive correlation between participation in GVCs and growth rates of GDP per capita. GVCs have a direct economic impact on value added, jobs and income.”

• “They can also be an important avenue for developing countries to build productive capacity, including through technology dissemination and skill building, thus opening up opportunities for longer-term industrial upgrading.”

(UNCTAD 2013 World Investment Report on Global Value Chains)

What is Indonesia’s involvement in GVCs?

Indonesia is not currently well integrated into GVCs compare to other ASEAN Countries

GVC Participation Rate of the Top 25 Developing Economy Exporters , 2010

Source: UNCTAD-EORA GVC Database

Raw Material:

• Availability, continuity and sustainability

• Quality, Time Delivery, Price competitiveness

• Planning upstream –downstream

• Regulations and government policies must support sustainable raw materials and business friendly

• Innovation is a must

Added Value Products:

• Market more open & difficult to stop Global Sourcing

• Competition is tougher• Food Products must be

innovative with new products to meet consumer’s needs and lifestyle

• Anticipation of rapid changes in the global market

CSIRO Indonesia | Archie SlametCSIRO Indonesia | Archie Slamet

Indonesia needs to connect

Innovation is a Must for Sustainable Development

Pemanfaatan Sagu

Sago and It’s Potential

Source: Indofood

• Opportunities of unexploited commodity• One Sago palm can produce 150 – 300 kg of dry sago• Indonesia has the largest Sago palm of around 1.128 millions hectare (of 2.6 millions

hectare total Sago area in the world)

Source: Prof Slamet Budijanto (IPB)

Comparing Sago and Wheat Flour Noodle

Source: Dapur HJM (Kulinologi)

Source: Dapur HJM (Kulinologi)

Source: Dapur HJM (Kulinologi)

Source: Dapur HJM (Kulinologi)

Opportunity as a Staple Food

• Local wisdom • Strengthening Food Security• Culturally appropriate • Comparative advantage

Challenges

• Sustainable supply chain (upstream –downstream)

• Lack of modern farming, harvesting and infrastructure economic viable

• Culture and community

Key Success Factor Pemanfaatan Sagu

Sagu sangat potential sebagai sumber daya pangan berbasis karbohidrat danmemiliki keunggulan (comparative advantage)

Perlu dieksplorasi lebih lanjut pemanfaatan Sagu sebagai sumber pangan dan energi. Namun tidak membandingkan langsung dengan sumber daya lainnya (Comparative Advantage)

Perlu strategi khusus dalam mengatasi tantangan Hulu – Hilir Sagu, juga Promosikhusus pemanfaatan sagu

Team Khusus Terpadu sebagai Pionir Pengembangan Sagu

Program Bersama A-B-G (K/L) – Pemerintah Pusat-Daerah

11/9/2016 47

Thank you