LAPORAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER - bi.go.id · ISM Manufaktur ISM Jasa-Jasa Sumber: Bloomberg i Data Sept...
Transcript of LAPORAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER - bi.go.id · ISM Manufaktur ISM Jasa-Jasa Sumber: Bloomberg i Data Sept...
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 1
LAPORAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER
Triwulan III 2013
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 2
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 3
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 4
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 5
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
ISM Manufacture
ISM Services
Index
Source: Bloomberg
exp
an
din
gco
ntr
acti
ng
Date Sept 2013
ISM Manufaktur
ISM Jasa-Jasa
Sumber: Bloomberg
kon
trak
si
eksp
an
si
Data Sept 2013
Data Sept 2013
Sumber: Bloomberg
Keyakinan konsumen ke depan
Keyakinan konsumen saat ini
Indeks Indeks
Sumber: Bloomberg
PMI Komposit
PMI Non Manufaktur
PMI Manufaktur
Data Sept 2013
> 50 : Ekspansi < 50 : Kontraksi
Indeks, 50 : netral
Sumber: Bloomberg Data Sept 2013
PMI < 50 : kontraksi
PMI > 50 : ekspansi
Indeks, PMI = 50 : netral
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 6
Data Sept 2013
Sumber: Bloomberg
Indeks Indeks
Data Ags 2013
Sumber: Bloomberg
Indeks
Produksi Industri PMI Manufaktur (sk. Kanan)
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 7
Sumber: Bloomberg
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 8
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 9
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 10
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 11
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 13
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13
Trade Balance Non Oil and Gas
Trade Balance Oil and Gas
Trade Balance Total
US$ MSaham
Neraca Perdagangan Nonmigas
Neraca Perdagangan Migas
Neraca Perdagangan
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 14
IDR/USD harian Rata-rata bulanan Rata-rata triwulan
Rata-rata
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 15
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 16
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan
-08
Ma
y-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Jan
-09
Ma
y-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Jan
-10
Ma
y-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Jan
-11
Ma
y-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Jan
-12
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Nilai Tukar (dep (+)/apr (-), %, yoy)
Indeks Harga Impor (proksi Imported Inflation, % YOY) *)
Inflasi Core Traded (%, yoy), RHS
*) Indeks komposit harga global dengan weigted average (berdasar prosentase impor dan bobot di IHK) dari komoditas pangan (CPO, gandum, gula, jagung dan kedelai) , minyak dunia (WTI), emas, kapas, dan besi.
60
65
70
75
80
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% Kapasitas Produksi Terpakai Industri Pengolahan (SKDU)
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 17
80
100
120
140
160
180
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Indeks%,yoy
Administered Prices
Ekspektasi Inflasi (SPE 3 bln), RHS
Ekspektasi Inflasi SPE 6 bln, RHS
Ekspektasi ↑ sebelum kebijakan diberlakukan
Sumber: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Inf ≤ 6,80%
8,00% < inf ≤ 8,50%
Inf > 8,50%
6,80% < inf ≤ 8,00%
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 18
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
rPUAB O/N rLending rate
rDF O/N rBI Rate
% %
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Okt-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13
Vol DF O/N (RHS) Vol PUAB O/N (RHS)
rBI Rate rPUAB O/N
rDF O/N
Rp T%
Avg Vol DF: Rp 114.2 TRRT Vol PUAB : Rp 10.1 T
rPUAB : 5.05%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
5
7
9
11
13
15
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Spread-rhs Sb Kredit Sb Dep 1 bln BI rate Sb LPS
%
Selisih rKredit - rDepo1: 586bps
%
6.19
12.05
11
.49
11
.29
13
.40
12
.11
11
.45
11
.27
13
.22
12
.02
11
.44
11
.24
13
.28
12
.03
11
.44
11
.21
13
.22
12
.00
11
.46
11
.17
13
.20
11
.99
11
.41
11
.14
13
.14
11
.93
11
.66
11
.29
13
.06
12
.05
11
.63
11
.37
13
.05
12
.05
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
Sb KMK Sb KI Sb KK RRT
Jan-13 Feb-13
Mar-13 Apr-13
May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13 Aug-13
%
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 19
-
5
10
15
20
25
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
DPK (RHS) Giro (Pangsa 23.9%)
Tab (Pangsa: 31.9%) Depo (Pangsa 44.2%)%, yoy
Per Agst 2013
-
5
10
15
20
25
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
DPK (%, yoy) RHS Giro (Pangsa 23.9%)
Tab (Pangsa: 31.9%) Depo (Pangsa 44.2%)
Kontribusi Pertumbuhan (%)
Per Agst 2013
%yoy
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 20
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan
-07
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Jan
-08
Ma
y-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Jan
-09
Ma
y-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Jan
-10
Ma
y-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Jan
-11
Ma
y-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Jan
-12
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
JCI BI RATE
-10,4%
2,4%
-4,7%
-4,2%
-0,3%
0,6%
9,9%
9,9%
-0,1%
4,0%
5,7%
1,5%
4,1%
5,8%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Indonesia (IHSG)
Vietnam
Thailand (SET)
Philippine
Kuala Lumpur (KLCI)
Strait Times (STI)
Shanghai (SHCOMP)
Hong Kong (Hang Seng)
India (SENSEX)
England (FTSE)
Japan (Nikkei)
US (Dow Jones)
EM ASIA
World
IHSG
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 21
(25,0)
(20,0)
(15,0)
(10,0)
(5,0)
-
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
Ma
r-0
8
Jun
-08
Se
p-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Jun
-09
Se
p-0
9
De
c-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Jun
-10
Se
p-1
0
De
c-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Jun
-12
Se
p-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Se
p-1
3
Net Beli/Jual (RHS) IHSG
-10,4%
-8,6%
0,8%
-7,8%
-19,8%
-6,9%
-9,9%
-11,8%
-13,8%
-20,5%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
IHSG
Infrastructure
Mining
Finance
Basic Industry
Misc. Industry
Consumption
Trade
Agriculture
Property
Quarterly Changes
Properti
Pertanian
Perdagangan
Konsumsi
Aneka Industri
Industri Dasar
Keuangan
Pertambangan
Infrastruktur
IHSG
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 22
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
6,00
6,50
7,00
7,50
8,00
8,50
9,00
9,50
10,00
10,50
11,00
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y
Spread (bps) - RHS 30-Jun-13 30-Sep-13 BI RATE
Sumber: Bloomberg, data eop
%
BI RATE
bps
Indikator
Utama Sep Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt
Total Aset (T Rp) 4,009.4 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8 4,367.8 4,418.7 4,461.8 4,510.3 4,581.1
DPK (T Rp) 3,050.0 3,225.2 3,204.5 3,207.3 3,243.1 3,299.4 3,349.7 3,374.4 3,392.9 3,440.2
Kredit * (T Rp) 2,555.9 2,707.9 2,688.1 2,718.7 2,768.4 2,824.2 2,887.5 2,959.1 3,021.1 3,067.4
LDR* (%) 83.8 84.0 83.9 84.8 85.4 85.6 86.2 87.7 89.0 89.2
NPLs Gross* (%) 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0
CAR (%) 17.4 17.4 19.2 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.0 18.0 17.9
NIM (%) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5
ROA (%) 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
* tanpa channeling
20132012
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 23
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 24
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 25
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 26
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 27
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 28