3 Financial Forecasting
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Transcript of 3 Financial Forecasting
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8/2/2019 3 Financial Forecasting
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Ch. 4: Financial Forecasting,
Planning, and Budgeting
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Tujuan Pembelajaran
Mahasiswa mampu untuk:Menggunakan metode persentase penjualan untuk
meramal kebutuhan pembiayaan perusahaanMenjelaskan ketrbatasan metode persentase penjualan
Menghitung tingkat pertumbuhan perusahaan yang
berkelanjutan
Membuat anggaran kas dan menggunakannya untukmengevaluasi jumlah dan waktu yang kebutuhan
pembiayaan perusahaan
Memahami jenis-jenis anggaran dan proses penyusunan
anggaran
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Pokok Bahasan
Peramalan keuangan
Keterbatasan Metode Peramalan Persentase
Penjualan
Tingkat Pertumbauhan Berkelanjutan
Perencanaan Keuangan dan Pengaanggaran
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Financial Forecasting
1) Project sales revenues and
expenses.
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Financial Forecasting
Project sales revenues and expenses.
Estimate current assets and fixedassets necessary to support projected
sales.
Percent of sales forecast
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Percent of Sales Method
Suppose this years sales will total
$32 million.
Next year, we forecast sales of$40 million.
Net income should be 5% of sales.
Dividends should be 50% of
earnings.
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This year % of $32m
Assets
Current Assets $8m 25%Fixed Assets $16m 50%
Total Assets $24m
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable $4m 12.5%
Accrued Expenses $4m 12.5%
Notes Payable $1m n/a
Long Term Debt $6m n/a
Total Liabilities $15m
Common Stock $7m n/a
Retained Earnings $2m
Equity $9m
Total Liab. & Equity $24m
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Next year % of $40m
Assets
Current Assets 25%Fixed Assets 50%
Total Assets
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable 12.5%
Accrued Expenses 12.5%
Notes Payable n/a
Long Term Debt n/a
Total Liabilities
Common Stock n/a
Retained Earnings
Equity
Total Liab. & Equity
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Next year % of $40m
Assets
Current Assets $10m 25%Fixed Assets $20m 50%
Total Assets $30m
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable $5m 12.5%
Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%
Notes Payable $1m n/a
Long Term Debt $6m n/a
Total Liabilities $17m
Common Stock $7m n/a
Retained Earnings
Equity
Total Liab. & Equity
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Predicting Retained Earnings
Next years projected retained earnings = last
years $2 million, plus:
projected net income cash dividends)
sales sales net income )
$40 million x .05 x (1 - .50)
= $2 million + $1 million = $3million
x x ( 1 -
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Next year % of $40m
Assets
Current Assets $10m 25%Fixed Assets $20m 50%
Total Assets $30m
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable $5m 12.5%
Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%
Notes Payable $1m n/a
Long Term Debt $6m n/a
Total Liabilities $17m
Common Stock $7m n/aRetained Earnings $3m
Equity
Total Liab. & Equity
% $
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Next year % of $40m
Assets
Current Assets $10m 25%
Fixed Assets $20m 50%Total Assets $30m
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable $5m 12.5%
Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%Notes Payable $1m n/a
Long Term Debt $6m n/a
Total Liabilities $17mCommon Stock $7m n/a
Retained Earnings $3m
Equity $10m
Total Liab. & Equity $27m
How muchDiscretionary
Financing
will weNeed?
N % f $40
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Next year % of $40m
Assets
Current Assets $10m 25%
Fixed Assets $20m 50%Total Assets $30m
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable $5m 12.5%
Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%Notes Payable $1m n/a
Long Term Debt $6m n/a
Total Liabilities $17mCommon Stock $7m n/a
Retained Earnings $3m
Equity $10m
Total Liab. & Equity $27m
How muchDiscretionary
Financing
will weNeed?
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Predicting Discretionary
Financing Needs
Discretionary Financing Needed =
projected projected projectedtotal - total - ownersassets liabilities equity
$30 million - $17 million - $10 million
= $3 million in discretionary financing
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Sustainable Rate of Growth
g* = ROE (1 - b) where
b = dividend payout ratio(dividends / net income)
ROE = return on equity
(net income / common equity) or
net income sales assets
sales assets common equity
ROE = x x
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Budgets
Budget: a forecast of future events.
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Budgets
Budgets indicate the amount and
timing offuture financing needs.
Budgets provide a basis for takingcorrective action if budgeted and
actual figures do not match.
Budgets provide the basis for
performance evaluation.