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World Development Vol. 33, No. 3, pp. 333–354, 2005� 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

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Global Educational Expansion and

Socio-Economic Development: An Assessment

of Findings from the Social Sciences

EMILY HANNUMUniversity of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

and

CLAUDIA BUCHMANN *

The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

Summary. — Among development agencies, conventional wisdom holds that educational expan-sion improves economic welfare and health, reduces inequalities, and encourages democratic polit-ical systems. We investigate the empirical foundations for these expectations in recent social scienceresearch. Consistent evidence indicates that health and demographic benefits result from educa-tional expansion, and suggests that education enhances, but does not ensure, individuals� economicsecurity. However, the impact of educational expansion on growth remains debated, and decades ofsociological studies offer evidence that educational expansion does not necessarily narrow socialinequalities. Finally, considerable controversy surrounds the implications of educational expansionfor democratization. Reasonable forecasts of the consequences of further educational expansionsneed to consider the diverse social contexts in which these expansions will occur.
� 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Key words — health, growth, poverty, inequality, demographic change, democratization

* This paper was supported by the Universal Basic and

Secondary Education (UBASE) Project at the American

Academy of Arts and Sciences. The authors have bene-

fited from the feedback of Joel Cohen, David Bloom,

Martin Malin, and Francisco Ramirez, and from con-

versations with other participants in UBASE discussion

meetings. Final revision accepted: October 18, 2004.

1. INTRODUCTION

Among development agencies, conventionalwisdom holds that educational expansion facil-itates numerous favorable changes for coun-tries and individuals. Improved economicwelfare and health, reduced inequalities, andmore democratic political systems are just someof the purported benefits invoked in pleas forthe expansion of education throughout theworld. A recent World Bank document on theEducation for All initiative provides a charac-teristic example:

[G]lobal research . . . has established unequivocallythat education increases individual incomes; that itis positively correlated with macroeconomic growth;that it is strongly correlated with reductions in pov-erty, illiteracy and income inequality; and that ithas strong complementary effects on the achievement

333

of . . . lower infant and child mortality, better nutri-tion, and the construction of democratic societies.The expansion of educational opportunity, whichcan simultaneously promote income equality andgrowth, is a ‘‘win win’’ strategy that in most societiesis far easier to implement than the redistribution ofother assets, such as land or capital. In short, educa-tion is one of the most powerful instruments knownfor reducing poverty and inequality and for layingthe basis for sustained economic growth, sound gov-ernance, and effective institutions. (2002a, p. v)

334 WORLD DEVELOPMENT

Similar rationales for investments in educa-tion are readily found in other documents pro-duced by the World Bank, the United NationsEducational, Scientific, and Cultural Organiza-tion (UNESCO), the United Nations Children�sFund (UNICEF), and other internationalorganizations supporting greater access to edu-cation worldwide (see UNESCO, 2002; UNI-CEF, 1995; World Bank, 1999, 2002b).Just how strong is the empirical foundation

for statements, such as the one above, that por-tray education as the panacea for a wide rangeof social ills? To address this question, we as-sess the evidence on five related assumptionsabout the consequences of educational expan-sion for socioeconomic development:(a) Human capital stock is central tonational economic development, as better-educated citizens are more productive.(b) Within societies, the expansion of edu-cational opportunities enables individualsto improve their economic circumstances.(c) Educational expansion narrows socialinequalities within countries by promotinga meritocratic basis for status attainmentin which the talented can achieve appropri-ate positions in the economy, regardless ofsocial background.(d) Countries with better-educated citizenshave healthier, slower-growing populations,as educated individuals make better healthchoices, live longer, and have healthier andfewer children.(e) Countries with more educated popula-tions are more democratic, as their citizensare able to make more informed politicaldecisions.We investigate these statements by drawing

on evidence from empirical studies in sociology,demography, economics, political science, andanthropology. 1 Prior reviews of the impact ofeducation have tended to focus on research ina single discipline; in contrast, this paper syn-thesizes available evidence for a range of out-comes and across the social sciences with thegoal of accumulating knowledge from diversedisciplines and promoting interdisciplinary re-search on the implications of global educa-tional expansion. We also illustrate certainpoints made in the literature with empirical evi-dence about links between education and eco-nomic, health, demographic, and politicaloutcomes. Note that the term education canrefer to a wide range of formal and informallearning programs and processes; for the pur-poses of this paper, we follow the general con-

vention in development organizationdocuments and use the term to refer to formalschooling.Our comprehensive assessment of empirical

research on the consequences of educationalexpansion is revealing on several fronts. Wefind consistent evidence from a range of disci-plines for the beneficial effects of educationalexpansion in the realms of health and demo-graphic change. There is less consensus regard-ing the effects of educational expansion foreconomic growth, the erosion of social inequal-ities, or democratization. Finally, we identifyfour plausible reasons for inconclusive orambiguous findings in these domains. Theseinsights should serve to advance futureresearch on the consequences of global educa-tional expansion.

2. EDUCATION AND NATIONALECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Human capital stock is central to national economicdevelopment, as better-educated citizens are more pro-ductive.

On the one hand, there is an obvious coinci-dence of educational expansion and nationaleconomic development: Developed countriestend to have more educated populations thanless-developed countries. Figure 1 presents anillustration of the relationship, plotting pri-mary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrollmentratios against the gross national product (GNP)per capita for 102 countries with complete datain 1995. Data points for individual countriesand trend lines for each level of education areincluded. Figure 1 demonstrates that countrieswith higher per capita GNPs have higher ratiosof educational enrollment, especially at levelsbeyond primary school. 2 More rigorous evi-dence supporting the link between human cap-ital stock and growth can be found in Barro�s(1991) study showing a positive relationship be-tween initial enrollment rates and economicgrowth in 98 countries. Most recently, in a syn-thesis of the empirical growth literature, Petra-kis and Stamakis (2002) similarly concludedthat economies with a larger stock of humancapital experience faster growth.Also supporting the beneficial consequences

of educational expansion for growth is researchon the impact of government investments ineducation. Poot�s (2000) synthesis of research

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000GNP Per Capita

Gro

ss E

nrol

lmen

t Rat

ios

(%)

Primary Secondary TertiaryLinear (Primary) Linear (Secondary) Linear (Tertiary)

Figure 1. Gross enrollment ratios by GNP per capita. Note: Countries are Algeria, Armenia, Australia, Austria,

Azebaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Botswana, Brunei, Bulgaria, Combodia, Canada, Chad, Chile, China, Colorn

Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Guinea, Guyana, Hungry,

Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Ita Lesotho, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi,

Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Narr Panama,

Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Phillipines, Poland, Portugal, Quatar, Romania, S. Korea, Saudi Arabia,

Singapore, Slovikia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spair & Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, the United Kingdom, the United

States, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe. Source: Created from date in US Agency for International Development, 2000.

‘‘Global Education Database (GED) 2000 Edition,’’ http://www.usaid.gov/edu_training/ged.html, accessed June

2002.

GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 335

on the impact of government policies on long-run growth concludes that the most definitiveresults relate to the positive impact of educa-tion expenditures: Eleven of the 12 empiricalstudies identified showed significant, positiveeffects of educational expenditures on growth(Poot, 2000, Table 4). Sylwester (2000) similarlyfound a long-term positive effect of educationalexpenditures on economic growth. 3

On the other hand, associations betweenmeasures of educational expansion and indica-tors of economic growth are open to interpreta-tion. Scholars do not agree on the best way toisolate causal impacts on national development.Two factors contribute to the controversy: thedifficulty of distinguishing the effects of growthon education from the effects of education ongrowth, and the possibility that other factorsdrive both educational expansion and eco-nomic growth. Moreover, some studies castdoubt on whether a consistent, positive rela-tionship between education and economic

growth really exists (e.g., Levine & Renelt,1992, Table 5; see Krueger & Lindahl, 2000for a critical review). Emblematic of this lineof research is Pritchett�s (1996) aptly titledpiece, ‘‘Where Has All the Education Gone?’’Pritchett uses two crossnational time-seriesdata sets spanning the 1960s to the mid-1980sand finds that the rate of growth of educationalcapital is not significantly related to growth inGDP per worker.One possible explanation for controversies

surrounding the education–growth relationshipis a mismatch between education and labormarket demands in some countries, if the edu-cation system primarily serves to sort individu-als to fill slots in the labor market, rather thanto help individuals to create new opportunitiesin the market. To the extent that labor marketsare static, the incidence of unemployment mayrise with education and increases in educationmay reduce total output (Krueger & Lindahl,2000, p. 10). For example, column 1 in Table 1

http://www.freedomhouse.org/ratings/index.htm

Table 1. Panel regressions of seven outcomes on gross enrollment ratios, 1970–2000

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

Total unemployment

rateaInternet users

per 100

populationb

Life expectancy

at birthcTotal fertility

ratecInfant mortality rate

(per 1000)cPolitical rights

indexdCivil liberties

indexd

Tertiary gross enrollment ratioc 0.07 0.20 0.07 �0.01 �0.25 0.03 0.04

(2.08)** (5.66)** (2.89)** (1.62) (2.53)* (3.81)** (4.55)**

Secondary gross enrollment ratioc 0.03 �0.05 0.10 �0.02 �0.43 0.00 �0.01(1.78)* (2.63)** (7.76)** (7.34)** (7.55)** (0.93) (1.46)

Primary gross enrollment ratioc 0.01 0.02 0.09 �0.01 �0.68 0.01 0.03

(0.66) (1.01) (6.26)** (2.41)* (10.24)** (2.60)** (5.15)**

GNP/capitac 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(0.88) (4.93)** (0.02) (2.53)* (2.90)** (1.91) (1.10)

Population 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(1.01) (0.25) (2.89)** (5.87)** (3.13)** (0.89) (1.96)

Constant 3.21 �7.00 49.54 5.96 139.90 3.31 1.96

(1.43) (2.79)** (40.17)** (18.62)** (23.63)** (9.64)** (4.62)**

Number of observations 431 367 554 661 690 953 953

1980–97 1980–97 1970–97 1970–97 1970–97 1975–97 1975–97

Number of countries 79 103 142 145 144 151 151

R-squared (within) 0.09 0.32 0.52 0.33 0.45 0.03 0.07

Note: Absolute value of t statistics are in parentheses. Models are estimated using data on outcome y for country i at time t, and allow for different intercepts forcountries, but constrain the slopes (B) to be the same across countries. Models are estimated as yit = (alpha + ui) + XB + eit.a Source: United Nations, 2002. ‘‘United Nations Common Database,’’ http://unstats.un.org, series 4690: Unemployment Rate [99 countries, 1980–97], accessed July2002.b Source: United Nations, 2002. ‘‘United Nations Common Database,’’ http://unstats.un.org, series 29969: Internet users per 100 population [209 countries, 1980–2001],accessed June 2002.c Source: US Agency for International Development, 2000. ‘‘Global Education database (GED) 2000 Edition,’’ http://www.usaid.gov/educ_training/ged.html [1970–98],accessed June 2002.d Source: Freedom House, Inc., 2000. ‘‘Annual Survey of Freedom Country Scores 1972–73 to 1999–2000.’’ http://www.freedomhouse.org/ratings/index.htm, accessedJune 2002.*Significant at the 10% level.**Significant at the 5% level.

336

WORLDDEVELOPMENT


http://www.measuredhs.com/data/indicators/

http://www.infodev.org/library/working.htm

http://unstats.un.org


shows fixed-effect panel regressions of totalunemployment rates for countries with validdata for years during 1980–97. Net of popula-tion size and per capita GNP, the significant,positive coefficients for tertiary enrollment sug-gest that as enrollment ratios at this level in-creased, unemployment rates increased aswell. 4 Marginally significant results at the sec-ondary level suggest, if weakly, the same infer-ence. The possibility that unemploymentrises—or at least fails to fall—with educationalexpansion may be particularly relevant in coun-tries where those most likely to benefit fromcontinued educational expansion, such as therural poor and, in many cases, women, werehistorically excluded from wage employment.Other scholars attribute ambiguous results

regarding the relationship between educationand economic development to data problemssuch as measurement error and time-frame lim-itations. Krueger and Lindahl (2000) maintainthat there is considerable measurement errorin country-level education data, particularly atsecondary and tertiary levels. After accountingfor measurement error, they find that increasedyears of schooling has little short-term effect onGDP growth, but positive and statistically sig-nificant effects on economic growth over peri-ods of 10–20 years (2000, p. 25). 5

A third possible explanation for mixed resultsis that different levels of schooling simply maynot have consistent consequences for growthacross countries. Petrakis and Stamakis (2002)demonstrate that the levels of education thatmatter for economic development may dependon the countries� level of development: in lessdeveloped countries, primary and secondaryeducation may matter more; in more developedcountries, tertiary education may matter more.A final complication is that past studies may

tell us less and less about the future, as global-ization and technological change modify theimperative for education. Using an index oftechnological progress constructed of five com-ponents (personal computers, Internet hosts,fax machines, mobile phones, and televisions),Rodrıguez and Wilson (2000) show that humancapital investment is positively related to na-tional technological progress. They argue thatthere may be particular synergies between tech-nology and human capital, and that high levelsof education may be a necessary condition fortechnological innovation and adaptation. Col-umn 2 in Table 1 shows some suggestive results,regressing Internet users per 100 population onenrollment ratios, population, and per capita

GNP. Only tertiary gross enrollment ratiosshow a significant positive coefficient for Inter-net use. This example, together with Rodrıguezand Wilson�s study, suggests that globalizationand technological change may be forging newmechanisms to link advanced skills to nationaldevelopment; mechanisms that may modify oldrelationships.

3. EDUCATION AND INDIVIDUALECONOMIC WELFARE

Within societies, the expansion of educational opportu-nities enables individuals to improve their economiccircumstances.

The supposition that countries with moreeducated individuals should prosper hinges onthe notion that better educated individuals aresocialized in ways that increase their productiv-ity and improve their economic standing.Researchers in the fields of sociology and eco-nomics have thoroughly investigated theseassumptions. Sociologists have examined pat-terns and trends in individuals� school-to-worktransitions and occupational attainment. Thesestudies reveal variations in the links betweeneducation and labor markets across industrial-ized and industrializing countries (see Bills &Haller, 1984; Blau & Duncan, 1967; Hannum& Xie, 1998; Shavit & Kraus, 1990; Shavit &Mueller, 1998; Treiman, McKeever, & Fodor,1996). Similarly, in the field of economics,rate-of-return studies show dramatic variationsacross countries (Nielsen & Westergard-Niel-sen, 2001), as well as within countries acrosslevels of schooling, social groups, and timeperiods (Demetriades & Psacharopoulos,1987; Psacharopoulos & Velez, 1992; Moll,1996; Zhao, 2004; see Psacharopoulos & Patri-nos, 2002, Appendix Table A-4 for an extensivecompilation of comparable estimates). Varia-tions notwithstanding, these studies attest tothe importance of education as a determinantof individuals� occupational outcomes and sub-sequent economic status.The credentialism hypothesis raises questions

about such results. This hypothesis states thateducational attainment offers credentials thatsignal underlying abilities, preferences, andprivileges that are important for labor out-comes but often unmeasured in empirical stud-ies. In other words, education simply provides aconvenient ‘‘job queue’’ for employers, rather


than actually improving the productivity ofindividuals. 6 If education were primarily aprocess of credentialing, rather than generat-ing, productivity, cross-sectional studies ofoccupational attainment or rates-of-returncould tell us little about the consequences offurther educational expansion. Stated moregenerally, the fact that education itself reflectssocial origins, abilities, choices and preferences,and assessments of likely returns complicatesthe task of interpreting estimates of the conse-quences of schooling for labor or other out-comes (see Becker, 1967, Chap. 2 for adiscussion).It is likely that the selective function of

schooling does play some role in producingthe relationships between education andemployment observed in many of the studiescited above, but empirical evidence casts doubton strict credentialist arguments. Studies in avariety of national settings have offered moreconservative tests of the beneficial economicconsequences of schooling by attempting toaddress potential biases associated with un-measured background characteristics such asability, preferences, or privileged social origins(e.g., see Lam & Schoeni, 1993 for Brazil;Duflo, n.d. for Indonesia; Psacharopoulos &Velez, 1992 for Colombia). One particularlyconvincing approach took advantage of a natu-ral experiment to trace the impact of schoolconstruction on earnings in Indonesia. Thisstudy estimated wage increases of 1.5–2.7%for each additional school built per 1,000 chil-dren (Duflo, n.d., p. 34).Two recent studies have offered critical

assessments of evidence about whether conven-tional rate of return studies are misleading. Intheir review of studies that used natural exper-iments to develop instrumental variables esti-mates of the returns to schooling, Kruegerand Lindahl (2000) concluded that the impactof education persists with ability and other fac-tors controlled. Psacharopoulos and Patrinos(2002) found that rate-of-return estimatesbased on twin measures or instrumental vari-able estimates yielded an average rate of returnto schooling—10%—that was the same as theaverage based on a much larger compilationof studies that used more conventional rate-of-return estimation techniques. Psacharopou-los and Patrinos (2002) also point out thateconomists� direct attempts to quantify bias inreturns estimates associated with ability havesuggested that it does not exceed 10% of theestimated schooling coefficients.

Most of the research on returns to educationhas operationalized education as the amount oftime or number of years spent in school. Butfailure to consider the quality of education inaddition to the amount of time spent in schoolcan produce misleading conclusions regardingthe returns to education. To address this con-cern, a number of studies have examined theimpact of school quality on labor market andother outcomes (Behrman & Birdsall, 1983;Behrman, Birdsall, & Kaplan, 1996; Card &Krueger, 1992; Glewwe, 1999a, 1999b). Themeasures of school quality used in these studiesvary, but are usually comprised of some combi-nation of student–teacher ratios, teacher train-ing or pay, measures of physical aspects ofschools, or the availability of resources relatedto learning (e.g., textbooks or computers). Thisliterature generally concludes that the qualityof education an individual receives is as impor-tant for labor market outcomes as the quantityof education. Moreover, these studies demon-strate that treating school quality separatelyfrom time spent in school affects the inferencesabout the impact of school quantity; in somecases, returns to years of education are loweronce school quality is taken into account (Behr-man & Birdsall, 1983). These findings suggestthat, for labor outcomes, deepening educationby increasing its quality is as important asexpanding education.Evidence about the economic benefits of

schooling for individuals tells only part of thestory. In developing countries, educationalexpansion, particularly among women, also ap-pears to have significant implications for thehuman capital of children of the newly edu-cated (Schultz, 2002). Behrman, Foster, Rosen-zweig, and Vashishtha (1999, p. 682) argue thata component of the significant positive relation-ship between maternal literacy and childschooling in India reflects the productivity ef-fect of home teaching. This effect, combinedwith the increase in returns to schooling formen, underlies the expansion of female literacyfollowing the onset of the green revolution. 7

The mechanisms behind such findings areilluminated in anthropological studies in devel-oping countries. Most notably, Robert andSarah LeVine�s crosscultural research combin-ing ethnographic methods, survey work and lit-eracy testing in Mexico, Nepal, Zambia, andVenezuela indicates that education, and partic-ularly the acquisition of literacy, helps womendevelop aspirations, skills, and models of learn-ing that eventually affect their child-bearing,


child-rearing behaviors (LeVine et al., 1991;LeVine, LeVine, & Schnell, 2001; LeVine,Rowe & Schnell-Anzola, 2004).These studies attest to the economic benefits

of increased schooling for individuals, and tothe likely echo effects on their children. Yet,forecasting the specific economic implicationsof rising educational attainments is extremelycomplex, absent access to unusual data sourcessuch as those utilized by Duflo (n.d.). Part ofthe difficulty is that peoples� economic opportu-nities are linked not only to their own humancapital, but also to the contexts in which theyfind themselves. For example, in Latin Americaand China, both poverty and nonenrollmentare concentrated in poor rural settings wherereturns to education tend to be lowest (Lopez& Valdez, 2000; Piazza et al., 2001; Zhao,1997). 8 Lower returns in the poorest rural set-tings may be partially attributable to lowerquality of schooling or lack of ready access tourban labor markets in which educational cre-dentials can directly affect employment. Lowerreturns may also be attributable to the factthat, among farmers, the returns to schoolingvary in ways likely to be directly related tothe level of local development. Where farmershave the possibility to innovate, such as inareas where the agricultural practices are in fluxdue to technological modernization, returns toschooling tend to be higher (Schultz, 1975, p.841). Rosenzweig (1995) observes that returnsto education are high when productive learningactivities can be exploited, such as during timesof technological innovation (see Welch, 1970,p. 47 for a similar discussion). 9 Where agricul-tural practices are static, as they are likely to bein the poorest areas, returns to education aresmaller or even nonexistent (Schultz, 1975, p.841). These examples provide an importantcaution that the implications of education foreconomic welfare for those remaining outsideof the school system may be less favorable, onaverage, than for those already in the schoolsystem. 10

A second important contextual factor is thatthe value of an individual�s own educationalcredential depends in part on how it comparesto the credentials of the local population. Asthe average level of schooling in the populationincreases, the value of a given level of educationin the labor market declines, leading to ‘‘cre-dential inflation’’ (e.g., Demetriades & Psachar-opoulos, 1987; Moll, 1996; Psacharopoulos &Velez, 1992). Both of these contextual factorsare consistent with a global trend of slightly

falling returns to education with economicdevelopment and educational expansion (Psa-charopoulos & Patrinos, 2002). 11

One unique contribution of sociology to de-bates about contextual effects on returns toschooling is the insight that the value of a giveneducational credential depends not only on theaverage level of education in a population, butalso on the institutional structures of nationaleducation systems. Shavit and Mueller�s (1998)study of linkages between educational qualifi-cations and occupations in 13 industrializedcountries demonstrates this point. In somecountries, education is valued for the specificvocational skills it confers; in others, for pro-viding workers with general knowledge; in stillothers, for sorting students by scholastic abilityor potential to learn. Shavit and Mueller (1998)argue that where education�s main purpose is tosort students, there is a built-in incentive foryoung people to acquire more education inorder to stay ahead of the queue. As ever-largerproportions of a population obtain a creden-tial, its labor market value declines. In contrast,in countries where vocational qualifications areused by employers to organize jobs and allocatepersons among them, the value of a credentialderives not from its scarcity, but rather fromthe specific skills it represents. In such contexts,credential inflation is less of a problem.Shavit and Mueller�s work suggests that the

returns to schooling are conditioned both bythe existing stock of human capital and by thenature of the credentials conferred. A largerconclusion to be drawn from this section isthat, while studies attest to the importance ofeducation as a determinant of individuals�occupational outcomes and subsequent eco-nomic status, the rate of return to schooling de-pends on a number of contextual factors, manyof which are not easily incorporated into empir-ical models.

4. EDUCATION AND SOCIALINEQUALITY

Educational expansion narrows social inequalities bypromoting a meritocratic basis for status attainmentin which the talented can rise to appropriate positionsin the economy, regardless of social background.

While returns vary with context, a conver-gence of evidence suggests that education playsan important role in improving the absolute


economic standing of individuals. Whethereducational expansion improves the relativestanding of historically disadvantaged groupssuch as the poor, women, and ethnic minoritiesis a different question. Here, we discuss evi-dence regarding the impact of educationalexpansion on socioeconomic, gender, and eth-nic inequalities. Much of the sociological re-search attempting to answer this question hasbeen guided by the ‘‘industrialism hypothesis,’’or the idea that industrialization promotesgreater social mobility (Treiman, 1970). Thistheory holds that as societies develop, urbani-zation, mass communication, and industrializa-tion should lead to greater social openness anda shift from particularistic to universalisticbases of achievement. These changes, in turn,should tighten the link between education andeconomic mobility. Data constraints have pre-cluded systematic evaluation of the industrial-ism hypothesis, but existing studies show onlymixed support for the notion that developmentand educational expansion bring increasedsocial mobility (e.g., Bills & Haller, 1984;Holsinger, 1975; Kelley & Perlman, 1971;Mukweso, Papgiannis, & Milton, 1984).

(a) Socioeconomic inequality

Substantial research indicates that educa-tional expansion does not reduce the relativeadvantages of elite children over children fromless-privileged backgrounds. Educationalexpansion alone does not change the relativeposition of social groups in the ‘‘educationqueue,’’ and elites manage to maintain theirstatus by getting more education than themasses (Walters, 2000, p. 254). Research froma wide range of societies finds little change ineducational opportunities between social strataover the course of educational expansion (e.g.,Mare, 1981; Halsey, Heath, & Ridge, 1980,Cha 11; Smith & Cheung, 1986; Shavit & Bloss-feld, 1993). As Walters (2000, p. 254) notes,these findings highlight the need to considerseparately the effects on educational inequalityof an overall increase in the size of the educa-tional system (i.e., school expansion) andchanges in the rules by which educationalopportunities are allocated (i.e., school reform).Even expansions in education accompanied

by reforms designed to modify the allocationof educational opportunities within society donot always reduce educational inequality. Raf-tery and Hout (1993; see also Hout et al.,1993) argue that a process they call ‘‘maximally

maintained inequality’’ explains the seemingpuzzle that many sweeping reforms intendedto make education more egalitarian have notaccomplished their purpose. When advantagedgroups are not fully integrated at a given levelof education, they strongly support efforts toexpand educational participation by eliminat-ing tuition fees and increasing capacity. Expan-sion at these levels of education does not leadto greater equality between social groups be-cause advantaged groups, who tend to favoreducation, can garner the largest share of valu-able educational credentials (Mare, 1981; Hal-sey et al., 1980, Chap. 11). In such cases,expansion does not alter the effect of socialbackground on educational transitions.

(b) Gender inequality

Evidence from countries around the worldindicates a global, long-term trend toward girls�access to schooling catching up with boys�(King & Hill, 1993; Knodel & Jones, 1996;Schultz, 1993; Shavit & Blossfeld, 1993). Inthe United States and Europe, in fact, femaleshave made substantial gains in all realms ofeducation and now generally outperform maleson several key educational benchmarks. In theUnited States today, women are more likelythan men to persist in college, obtain degrees,and enroll in graduate school (Bae, Choy, Ged-des, Sable, & Snyder, 2000). In the year 2000, inall member states of the European Union, therewere more 18–21 year old women than men ofthe same age group enrolled in tertiary educa-tion (Eurostat, 2002). Likewise, a recent analy-sis of survey data from 18 countries in LatinAmerica showed that girls in most of the coun-tries receive more education than boys (Ander-sen, 2000). Researchers are just beginning toexamine this shift toward a female advantagein education in some countries.In contrast, in South Asia and the Middle

East, expanding education overall has occurredin the context of extreme gender gaps that con-tinue to favor boys (King & Hill, 1993). Forexample, in Nepal, during a period when en-trance and completion rates rose for girls, ratesfor boys also rose, such that gender gaps did notsubstantially narrow (Stash & Hannum, 2001).Sometimes, the persistence of gender gaps thatdisadvantage females is linked to cultural normssurrounding women�s roles in society, particu-larly women�s access to paid employment.Further, norms about female labor force par-

ticipation can condition the consequences of


educational expansion among girls. Femalegains in education are not always mirrored byfemale gains in employment and income. Forexample, a study of five Asian countries usingWorld Fertility Survey data showed that inthe 1970s, higher levels of educational attain-ment had little impact on female labor forceparticipation in Korea, the most developedand highly educated of the societies under study(Cameron, Bowling, & Worswick, 2001). Simi-lar research comparing Taiwan and Koreafound very different education–employmentrelationships for women in the two societies.In Taiwan, higher levels of education increasedwomen�s probability of employment; in Korea,highly educated women were less likely to beemployed. The difference was likely due to thefact that an adequate supply of educated malesoffered Korean employers few incentives to re-duce barriers to married women�s employment,while in Taiwan, an inadequate male laborforce pressured employers to alter ‘‘patriarchalpreferences’’ (Brinton, Lee, & Parish, 1995, p.1111). Finally, research on South Africa andIsrael in the 1980s concluded that, despite rela-tively egalitarian patterns of educational attain-ment by gender, women lagged behind men inoccupational attainment (Mickelson, Nkomo,& Smith, 2001).

(c) Ethnic inequality

Because of the close link between educationand occupational outcomes, increased absolutelevels of education are likely to benefit disad-vantaged ethnic groups. However, it is not safeto assume that expansion in access to educationwill allow disadvantaged minorities to ‘‘catchup’’ with initially advantaged ethnic groups,at least in the short run. For example, in Nepal,patterns of access to formal education haveclosely mirrored traditional caste-ethnic hier-archies, despite rapid educational expansion(Stash & Hannum, 2001). Likewise, Shavitand Kraus (1990) show that in Israel, fromthe 1940s to the 1970s, the effects of ethnicitydeclined in the transition from primary to sec-ondary schooling but remained constant forsubsequent educational transitions. In China,analysis of data through the early 1990s showedthat considerable ethnic disparities persisted,with progress toward equity at the stage of pri-mary entrance offset by increasing disparities atthe junior high school stage (Hannum, 2002).The effects of educational expansion on eth-

nic inequalities in occupational status are also

mixed. In Brazil, Telles (1994) showed thatindustrialization and educational expansionwere associated with decreased racial inequalityacross the full occupational distribution, butgreater racial inequality in professional andwhite-collar sectors. In northwest China, risingethnic disparities in occupational status in the1980s could be explained by rising ethnic differ-ences in education, despite dramatic improve-ments in access to schooling for bothminorities and ethnic Chinese (Hannum &Xie, 1998). Similarly, in South Africa, despiteeducational expansion, educational disparitiesplayed an important role in maintaining race-based differences in occupational status in the1980s (Mickelson et al., 2001) and 1990s (Trei-man et al., 1996; Powell & Buchmann, 2002).In short, while educational expansion offers

new economic opportunities to both advan-taged and disadvantaged groups, its implica-tions for reducing inequality associated withsocioeconomic status, gender, and ethnicityare decidedly mixed. While human capital dis-parities can be an important cause of occupa-tional and income disparities across socialgroups, there are often important contextualcauses, outside of education, as well. Further,as education becomes more central to occupa-tions and incomes, those who are otherwiseable but lack appropriate credentials are ex-cluded from high wage jobs, and those whogain credentials later may have a harder timeturning their credentials into high-status orhigh-wage employment. Yet, to maintain a bal-anced perspective on these findings, it is impor-tant to bear in mind that continued relativedeprivation loses some of its significance ifabsolute deprivation is eased significantly byeducational expansion.

5. EDUCATION, HEALTH, ANDDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Countries with better-educated citizens have healthier,slower-growing populations, as educated individualsmake more informed health choices, live longer, andhave healthier and fewer children.

Across many fields of research, there areimportant linkages between education, health,fertility decline and, subsequently, slowing pop-ulation growth. Beginning with the education–health relationship, recent crossnational re-search has shown that the education of

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Figure 2. Under-5 mortality rates in 10 years preceding survey by mother’s educational attainment, DHS countries with

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children, especially girls, is associated with sig-nificantly longer life expectancies and lowerdeath rates (Buchmann, 1996; Hadden & Lon-don, 1996; Schultz, 2002). According to thewithin-country, over-time estimates providedin Table 1, a 10% rise in primary enrollment ra-tios is associated with an average 0.9 year in-crease in life expectancy. A 10% increase insecondary enrollment ratios relates to an aver-age one year increase in life expectancy; for ter-tiary enrollment ratios, the figure is 0.7 years(column 3). Similarly, increases in enrollmentratios at all levels are associated with significantreductions in infant mortality per 1,000 livebirths (column 5). Of course, because educa-tional investments and investments in expand-ing health systems may occur concurrently, itis difficult to separate the influence of invest-ments in education from those in health care.Nonetheless, microlevel data suggest that,

whether on its own or in conjunction withimproving health care systems, education doeshave an impact. For example, Figure 2 graphsunder-five mortality rates by mothers� educa-tion for countries with recent Demographicand Health Surveys (hereafter DHS) data(2000 or later). 12 Consistent with the aggregate

findings just described, DHS data indicate thatchildren of better-educated mothers have lowermortality rates. The relationship betweenmaternal education and child health persistsacross empirical studies that employ controlsfor other dimensions of socioeconomic status(see reviews in Jejeebhoy, 1996; Schultz, 2002).The mechanisms driving the relationship

have yet to be fully understood. However,many studies suggest that, rather than specifichealth or scientific knowledge gleaned fromthe school curriculum, it is a general set of skillsand orientations that enables educated womento obtain the knowledge or services that theyneed, or that empower them to act effec-tively. 13 Research suggests that women withmore education, even when that educationwas of dubious quality, were better able to pro-cess information about health (LeVine, LeVine,Rowe, & Schnell-Anzola, 2004). In Nepal, bothsurvey-based regression estimates and ethno-graphic fieldwork point to the enhancing effectof women�s literacy on concrete health-relatedskills, such as ability to comprehend healthmessages in print and over the radio, to under-stand medical instructions, and to explainhealth problems in a comprehensible manner


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Figure 3. Immunization rates by mother�s educational attainment, DHS countries with 2000 or later survey dates.

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(LeVine et al., 2004). Similarly, Glewwe�s(1999c) research in Morocco highlights theimportance of general literacy and numeracyskills acquired in school that enabled mothersto obtain health knowledge not taught inschools. Health knowledge, in turn, was animportant predictor of child height-for-age.Finally, other research suggests that, com-

pared to mothers with no schooling, educatedmothers were more informed about preventivehealth care practices such as immunizations,less fatalistic about disease, and more likely toadopt innovative behaviors related to children�shealth (Cleland & van Ginnekin, 1988; Jejee-bhoy, 1996). One illustrative example comesthrough clearly in recent DHS surveys. Figure3 shows that in most of the countries participat-ing in the DHS since the year 2000, children ofbetter-educated mothers have higher immuni-zation rates.Better health is an end in itself, but better

health also carries implications for demo-graphic change. Improved infant and child sur-vival enables parents to plan their family sizeand, therefore, contributes to declines in fertil-ity (e.g., London, 1992; Subbarao & Raney,1995). Using data from 23 African countries,

Kirk and Pillet (1998) show that countries withhigher rates of female schooling and lower childmortality experienced substantial reductions infertility and desired family size. Lower infantmortality may also extend the period of lacta-tion and postpartum infecundability, thusreducing the time women are at risk of conceiv-ing additional children.Because access to nonfamilial employment

expands with higher levels of education, bet-ter-educated women are more likely to delayor forego childbearing, in part because theopportunity costs associated with childbearingand childrearing increase and the time availablefor parenting declines. 14 Evidence from 20countries participating in the World FertilitySurvey indicated that female participation inthe labor force was consistently associated withreduced fertility (Rodrıguez & Cleland, 1981).While the authors acknowledge that data limi-tations precluded statistically convincing causalinterpretations, they argue that in societieswhere fertility norms were rapidly changing, itis reasonable to interpret this pattern as evi-dence that participation in the labor market isperceived as an alternative to childbearing,and thus influences fertility decisions.




Education and employment may increase wo-men�s decision-making authority and receptive-ness to innovation—changes that lead not onlyto greater utilization of health resources andimproved child health, as described above, butalso to increased family planning. For example,in nine Latin American countries, while fertilitypreferences varied little across education levels,achieved fertility levels varied substantially(Castro Martin & Juarez, 1995). In Vietnam,better-educated women (and women with bet-ter-educated husbands) were more likely touse contraceptives (Dang, 1995). In sub-Saha-ran Africa, Lloyd, Kaufman, and Hewett(2002) find that the onset of mass education,defined as the point at which 75% of 15–19-year-olds completed at least four grades ofschool, was linked to increased contraceptivepractice. 15 Even the behavior of individualswho themselves do not attend school may beaffected, as educational expansion speeds cul-tural change and creates new values (Caldwell,1980). In Nepal, Axinn and Barber (2001) showthat women�s proximity to schools duringchildhood dramatically increased their contra-ceptive use in adulthood. Women who hadlived near a school had 39% higher annual odds

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Figure 4. Mean children ever born to women aged 40–49 by

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of adopting a permanent contraceptive method,given that they had not already done so. 16 Thisfinding was largely independent of whether thewoman subsequently attended school, her hus-band attended school, she lived near a school inadulthood, or she sent her children to school.Finally, educational expansion reduces the

economic benefits associated with childbearing,through increasing the pressures on parents toinvest in their children and through reducinga child�s availability for working inside and out-side the home (see Caldwell, 1980). Axinn�s(1993) analysis of microdemographic data froma rural community in Nepal indicated that chil-dren�s schooling exerted a strong influence onparents� fertility preferences and behavior.Ogawa and Retherford (1993) cited concernsvoiced by women in a national family planningsurvey in Japan about the economic and psy-chological costs involved in educating childrenas an indication of the likely importance ofsuch considerations in fertility decisions.Together, these influences lead to a consistent

and regular association between education andfertility. Figure 4 shows the average number ofchildren born to women aged 40–49 by educa-tional attainment for recent DHS countries.

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data/indicators/, accessed June 2002.



These graphs show a regular pattern in whichwomen with education, especially secondaryand higher education, had substantially fewerchildren by the end of their childbearing years.The negative relationship between educationand fertility is also evident in national aggre-gate data. Estimates in Table 1 indicate that a10% expansion in primary gross enrollment ra-tios leads to an average reduction in the totalfertility rate of 0.1 children; the correspondingincrease in secondary enrollment ratios is asso-ciated with a reduction of 0.2 children (column4).Such relationships ultimately imply slowed

population growth. Lutz, Goujon, and Dobl-hammer-Reiter (1998) illustrate the significanceof links between education and demographicchange by including educational fertility andmortality differentials into population projec-tions. Using data from Tunisia, Sudan, andAustria, the authors conclude that under theconditions of large age differentials in educa-tional attainment and significant educa-tion-related fertility and mortality differentialsthat characterize many developing countries,the explicit inclusion of education in popula-tion projections significantly impacts popu-lation size. Their projections indicate thatshort-term investments in education willproduce long-term effects on population size.Beyond its effects through health and fertil-

ity, education may also slow population growththrough encouraging a later age at marriage(Jejeebhoy, 1996). Later marriage typically in-creases the mean length of a generation, orthe time a cohort takes to replace itself, andthus slows population growth even at constantfertility levels. Weinberger�s (1987) analysis ofWorld Fertility Survey data indicated that themean age at marriage was four years later forwomen with at least seven years of educationthan for uneducated women. In a study of fiveAsian societies, Hirschman (1985) showed thatwomen�s schooling had a strong effect on thetiming of family formation, with the largest ef-fect at the secondary level.Of course, as in the case of conventional rate-

of-return studies, studies that do not accountfor factors that determine education itself mayoverstate the causal impact of education. Forexample, one study conducted in the Philip-pines compared three-stage least square andOLS estimates of the effect of schooling onage at marriage, and concluded that OLS esti-mates were inflated by 40% due to heterogene-ity and the endogenous response of schooling

to attributes valued in the marriage market(Boulier & Rosenzweig, 1984, p. 727). Evenso, the authors raised doubts about whetherthe estimates were statistically significantly dis-tinct, and substantively, the difference wassmall: a year of schooling in their OLS estima-tion increased age at marriage by 0.3 years,compared to 0.2 years in three-stage leastsquares estimates. While this example suggestscaution about the precise magnitude of educa-tion effects on age at marriage in research thatadopts simple model specifications, it supportsthe notion that education is associated with la-ter age at marriage.

6. EDUCATION AND POLITICALCHANGE

Countries with more educated populations are moredemocratic, as their citizens are able to make more in-formed political decisions.

In the debate over the ‘‘requisites’’ of politi-cal democratization, education is just one ofmany factors deemed important. Research hasalso examined the role of economic factors(economic development, income inequality,dependence on foreign aid, position in theworld economy), and noneconomic factors(ethnic heterogeneity, experience with colonial-ism, religious orientation) as they relate to therise and stability of democratic institutions.While many scholars have emphasized the posi-tive role of educational expansion in facilitatingpolitical development, there are fewer empiricalanalyses of the impact of educational expansionthan there are analyses of these other potentialfactors (Benavot, 1996, p. 377).Of the research that has investigated this

issue, two theoretical perspectives offer some-what different views on the processes linkingeducation with democratization. The politicalmodernization perspective sees a strong causallinkage between an educated citizenry anddemocracy. Schools produce ‘‘modern’’ indi-viduals who have a greater desire and abilityto participate in political decisions and nationalconcerns (Inkeles & Smith, 1974). Indeed, earlycrossnational studies (Lipset, 1963; Cutright,1969) found strong correlations between massliteracy and the presence of democratic politicalsystems, as well as between the expansion ofprimary education and degree of politicaldevelopment. In their survey of six countries,


Inkeles and Smith (1974) showed that peoplewith more schooling tended to be more individ-ualistic, more informed and activist-oriented,and less parochial than those with little educa-tion.Of course, one weakness of these studies was

that their emphasis on correlations said littleabout the issue of causality. Later studies thatapproximated a longitudinal design throughthe use of panel data reported more ambiguousresults. According to the political moderniza-tion perspective, the ‘‘aggregate effects of masseducation expansion on democracy are largelyachieved via education�s socializing influenceson individuals’’ (Benavot, 1996, p. 384). More-over, this view assumes that education has lin-ear effects on individuals that are beneficialfor the development and retention of democ-racy (Kamens, 1988).The institutional perspective differs on both

fronts. First, in contrast to modernization argu-ments, the institutional perspective focuses onthe macrolevel impact of educational expan-sion. Educational systems are part of a broaderprocess in the social and political constructionof society, in which highly institutionalizedsocial roles and categories are created andlegitimated (Benavot, 1996, p. 385). Thus, edu-cational expansion affects the political develop-ment of society not only through its impact onindividuals, but also through the wider mean-ings attributed to given levels of educationalattainment. Meyer (1977) refers to this as the‘‘chartering’’ role of education, and suggeststhat the organization of education may haveas important an effect on political developmentas the expansion of education. Moreover,whether or not education is beneficial for thedevelopment and retention of democracy de-pends on how education and educated elitesare incorporated into the political system of acountry. In societies where graduates of tertiaryeducation become representatives of the nationstate, the result may be a decline in the indepen-dent authority of other collectives (Kamens,1988, p. 119). For example, Ramirez, Rubin-son, and Meyer (1973) found that the level ofpolitical incorporation of higher educationhad statistically significant negative effects onthe introduction and retention of democracyduring 1950–68.These perspectives also differ in their views

regarding how expansion of different levels ofeducation should influence political develop-ment. Political modernization views all levelsof schooling as beneficial for the building of

democracy, but emphasizes mass schooling—primary and secondary levels—as most impor-tant. For reasons explained above, institution-alists emphasize the importance of tertiaryeducation.The results presented in Table 1 do not re-

solve this debate, but they indicate a positiverelationship between educational and democ-racy. The final two columns of Table 1 showregressions of two commonly used scales, polit-ical rights and civil liberties, taken from Free-dom House scores (Freedom House, Inc.,2000). Both primary and tertiary enrollment ra-tios have significant, positive effects on bothindicators of democracy, with much larger ef-fects at the tertiary level.Benavot (1996) provided a more sophisti-

cated examination of the consequences of edu-cational expansion at primary, secondary andtertiary levels for four measures of democracyprevalent in the literature. 17 He investigatedthe effect of educational expansion over twoperiods (1965–80 and 1980–88), controllingfor economic development, colonial heritage,date of independence, ethnic homogeneity,and region, and found no impact of educationalexpansion on political democracy in the earlyperiod. In the 1980–88 period, educationalexpansion at the tertiary level had strong posi-tive effects on both measures of politicaldemocracy available for that time period, whileprimary and secondary expansion had negligi-ble effects on the same measures. Benavot con-tends that the contrast of these results withearlier studies (that find positive effects of lowerlevels of schooling on democracy) is due to thesuperior methods and data used in his study.At the individual level, abundant research

from a wide range of contexts shows a strongrelationship between education and politicalparticipation (Almond & Verba, 1963; Ingle-hart, 1977; Nie, Verba, & Petocik, 1979). Mostof this research focuses on already democraticsocieties where citizens have rights to partici-pate in political processes through voting andopposition or protest. Studies show that edu-cated citizens are more likely to vote (Nie, Junn,& Stehlick-Barry, 1996) and voice more tolerantattitudes and democratic values. 18 The assump-tion is that schools are responsible for transmit-ting these outlooks, but exactly how schoolspromote these outlooks is unclear (Chabott &Ramirez, 2000). Some arguments emphasizecurriculum (Torney, Oppenheim, & Farnen,1976); others stress the institutional influenceof the school (Kamens, 1988; Meyer, 1977).


Several caveats regarding research on therelationship between education and democracyare noteworthy. First, many of the studies thatattempt to measure individual political viewsand values use paper and pencil tests to deter-mine democratic orientations. It is possiblethat more educated individuals are better ableto guess the ‘‘appropriate’’ answers to ques-tions about political norms. This raises ques-tions about the nature of the relationshipbetween education and political orientations.Second, the rapid expansion of education inthe absence of growth in labor market oppor-tunities may create a crash in returns toschooling. Certainly, the presence of educated,unemployed youth may have a negative impacton political stability (Huntington, 1968; Lipset,1985).Finally, it is very important to consider the

content of education. Cuba and pre-reform-era China are important examples of socialistcountries where periods of rapid expansion of‘‘revolutionary’’ schooling were not character-ized by obvious shifts toward political democ-ratization, as conventionally defined in theWest. Similarly, high levels of state control overtertiary education may undermine the supportof democratic political institutions because, insuch cases, graduates are more likely to becomestate civil servants and representatives of thecountry state.

7. CONCLUSION

This paper has discussed the empirical foun-dations for widely held expectations about theconsequences of educational expansion. Wefind that two of the assumptions listed at theoutset of this paper are well supported byempirical research. First and most strikingly,substantial research spanning disciplinaryboundaries attests to the health and demo-graphic benefits of improved educational com-position: Countries with better-educatedcitizens indeed have healthier populations, aseducated individuals make more informedhealth choices, live longer, and have healthierchildren. The populations of countries withmore educated citizens are likely to grow moreslowly, as educated people tend to marry laterand have fewer children. Second, educationalopportunities enhance, but do not necessarilyensure, the future economic security of theworld�s most vulnerable children. Consistent re-sults spanning many years and several social

science disciplines guided by diverse researchparadigms suggest that these benefits can bereasonably anticipated from further educa-tional expansion.In other areas, empirical support for the as-

sumed benefits of education is more ambigu-ous. Considerable controversy surrounds theeffects of educational expansion on nationaleconomic development. Many empirical studiesfind a positive relationship, but other studiescast doubt on it. Reverse causality, time framelimitations and measurement error have oftenbeen blamed for the disparate results. In short,statements of the benefits of educational expan-sion for economic growth are still based onmixed evidence, as research has not establisheda consensus regarding findings or the best waysto address complex conceptual, methodologi-cal, and data challenges.For other hypothesized consequences, impor-

tant lines of research in the fields of sociologyand political science contradict the rhetoriccommon in development organizations. Forexample, numerous empirical studies in sociol-ogy have indicated that while educationalexpansion tends to offer absolute benefits todisadvantaged groups, it is less likely to erodesocial inequalities rapidly, except perhaps forinequalities associated with gender. Inequalitiesassociated with economic origins or ethnicityoften prove resistant to educational expansion,as educational access often expands faster foradvantaged than disadvantaged groups. Inshort, decades of empirical research in socialstratification and mobility offer evidence thateducational expansion does not necessarily nar-row social inequalities between advantaged anddisadvantaged groups.Similarly, there is considerable controversy

surrounding the effects of educational expan-sion on the democratization of societies,though expansions of primary and secondaryeducation are likely to improve the informedcitizenship of individuals. Obvious concernswith this line of research include measurementissues related to the challenge of developingvalid and reliable measures of democratization.An additional concern is that democratization,perhaps more so than other outcomes, mayhinge directly on the hard-to-measure contentof education. This possibility is suggested instudies that find larger effects of tertiary educa-tion than lower levels of education. The conse-quences of expanding basic and secondaryeducation for political democratization remainan empirical question.


In areas where research is inconclusive orcontradictory, four general points are worthconsidering. First, much of the research dis-cussed above underscores the importance of along-term perspective. The observed relation-ship between educational expansion and eco-nomic growth is stronger over longer timeperiods (Krueger & Lindahl, 2000). Studies alsoshow echo-effects of parental education forchildren�s human capital (e.g., Behrman et al.,1999; LeVine et al., 2001), suggesting futureeconomic payoffs for current expansions. Lutzet al. (1998) emphasize that ambiguities in theresearch on short-term national-level benefitsof education may be attributable, in part, tothe lag time between improving enrollments ofchildren and changes in the overall human cap-ital stock of the population. As data for longertime periods become available, the ambiguitiesof current research may be clarified with the im-proved ability to incorporate appropriate timelags into such studies.Second, the expansion of different levels of

education seems to have different consequences.For example, tertiary enrollments in particularappear to be linked significantly to democrati-zation and technological change, while educa-tional expansion through the secondary levelappears to be extremely important for reapingmany health and demographic benefits. Thesedifferences may be linked to qualitative differ-ences in what individuals learn at these differentstages in education.Third, the ‘‘quality’’ of education, the organi-

zational structures of education, linkages be-tween education and the labor market, andthe specific content of education all matter foreducation�s impacts on various outcomes.While this point seems obvious, at present,widely available measures of education systemsand schools are insufficient for revealing criticalmechanisms that link education to various out-comes. Hence, with the exception of rate-of-return studies on school quality, little researchincorporates these nontrivial elements of educa-tion into empirical strategies. There is an urgentneed to develop data collection strategies thatallow more detailed empirical descriptions ofwhat education means in different national con-texts, and thus enable investigations of theattributes of education that facilitate outcomesacross a variety of realms.This point is as applicable to data collected

from individuals as it is to data collected aboutschools and school systems. Our understandingof the potential consequences of schooling

could be much improved by knowing moreabout those aspects of individuals� skills thatare enhanced by education. The concept ofhuman capital stock has occupied a central rolein research on educational expansion, but fewresearchers have tried to develop direct mea-sures of the aspects of human capital thoughtto be most important. One way that researchcan make progress in this direction is by incor-porating new literacy and life-skills assessmentsinto studies of the consequences of education.The recent International Adult Literacy Survey(IALS) initiative (OECD, 2000; OECD &HRDC, 1997) is an important step towarddeveloping international standards for measur-ing productivity-related skills. A parallel initia-tive sponsored by UNESCO explores howadult literacy, numeracy, and life skills can bebest measured in developing countries. 19 Themeasures being developed by these initiativesseem particularly suited to the task of uncover-ing the links between education, skills, and thepositive social changes of interest to develop-ment agencies. Combined with appropriatesurvey data, such measures would allow directinvestigation of the competencies acquired inthe school system, and their consequences foreconomic welfare, health and family change,and citizenship.A final contributor to contradictory findings,

and an important caveat even in areas whereconsistent results have emerged, is the pointthat educational impacts are sensitive to con-text. The human capital perspective implicit inmuch of the research on educational invest-ments is inherently individualistic, assumingthat education will offer the same enablingcapacities to individuals regardless of the con-texts in which they function. This perspectiveoften fails to acknowledge that within the glo-bal economy, within countries, within localcommunities, and within school systems, socialstructures shape and constrain the impact ofexpanding education. For example, effects ofeducational expansion on economic develop-ment may be conditioned by national politicalstability or by a country�s position in the globaltrade system. Within countries, the economicbenefits to those educated later may be smallerthan the benefits to those educated earlier, be-cause as a national population�s educationalcomposition improves, the value of a given edu-cational credential in the labor market declines.As education expands to reach individuals fromincreasingly disadvantaged or isolated groups,these individuals may have a harder time than


others turning credentials into high-status,high-wage employment. The health benefits ofeducation may be more evident in societieswhere the sanitation infrastructure is weak, orless evident in societies with universal accessto health care. These examples emphasize thateducational expansion should be viewed as

one of many important elements in economicand social development. Reasonable forecastsof the consequences of further expansions in-tended to reach the world�s most disadvantagedpopulations need to consider the diversesocial contexts in which these expansions willoccur.

NOTES

1. One challenge with this interdisciplinary approach is

that different disciplines vary in their ideas about the

kinds of research designs that demonstrate evidence of

causal relationships. The studies referenced here include

a mix of cross-sectional and longitudinal designs, macro

and microlevel analyses, and studies that focus on

changes over time. Many of the available studies in this

realm involve cross-sectional research; readers may find

some designs more convincing than others.

2. Correlations between per capita GNP and enroll-

ment ratios derived from the same data provide further

illustration: the correlation of per capita GNP with the

primary gross enrollment ratio is weak and marginally

significant (0.16, N = 131, p = 0.07), while the correla-

tions with secondary and tertiary gross enrollment ratios

are strong and significant (0.64, N = 121, p = 0.00 for

secondary; 0.63, N = 107, p = 0.00 for tertiary).

3. Sylwester (2000) found that educational expendi-

tures were negatively related with contemporaneous

growth, but that previous expenditures were positively

related.

4. We present the results in Table 1 to illustrate

temporal associations of education and various national

outcomes. This table is not meant to imply that

education alone causes the observed changes in the

outcome variables.

5. While much research on education and national

development has focused on the issue of growth, an

equally important aspect of national economic develop-

ment is the distribution of income. Studies suggest

beneficial consequences of educational expansion for

income distributions. Theoretical work in economics

predicts that income inequality declines with support for

public education (Glomm & Ravikumar, 1992). In an

empirical study of 50 countries, Sylwester (2002) showed

that public education expenditures were associated with

a subsequent decrease in the level of income inequality.

He argues that costs must be low enough that individ-

uals have enough resources to forego income and attend

school. If individuals are too poor to attend school, then

promoting public education can cause the distribution of

income to become more skewed.

6. However, as discussed below, considerable evidence

supports a different form of the credentialism argument:

that educational credentials often serve to reproduce

older forms of social inequality.

7. These findings may not apply in developed settings,

where educational opportunities are relatively expanded.

In a study using twin data from the United States,

Behrman and Rosenzweig (2002) suggest that the

observed positive relationship between the schooling of

mothers and their children is substantially biased

upward due to correlations between schooling and

heritable ‘‘ability’’ and assortative mating. They con-

clude that in the United States, an increase in women�sschooling would not be beneficial in terms of the

schooling of children.

8. These issues have global significance, as some

estimates suggest that rural poverty accounts for nearly

63% of poverty worldwide (Khan, 2000).

9. Welch (1970) credited changing technologies for a

trend of rising education without falling rates of return

to schooling in the United States.

10. There are additional factors that suggest other

labor market disadvantages for children currently

excluded from the school system. Poorer health may

be one example. Levine�s (2004) review cites studies inEgypt and Tanzania showing that out-of-school children

were less healthy than children enrolled in school. It is

also likely that those currently excluded from schooling

have less access to social networks that can be helpful in

the labor market.

11. There are, however, important exceptions to this

trend. Zhao (2004) has shown that returns to schooling

in China have risen in recent years, during a period of

educational and economic expansion. In addition, Psa-

charopoulos and Patrinos (2002) report increases in

private returns to tertiary schooling.

12. Armenia and Turkmenistan both had surveys in

2000 but are excluded here due to implausible data.


13. The focus of research in the United States is

somewhat different, but also emphasizes empowerment.

Recent research in sociology linking individuals� educa-tion and health in the United States emphasizes the key

mediating roles played by psychosocial factors such as

level of personal control, sense of agency, self-concept,

and stress (House et al., 1994; Mirowsky & Ross, 1998;

Ross & Mirowsky, 1999; Williams, 1990; Williams &

Collins, 1995).

14. Of course, as noted above, the degree to which the

extension of educational opportunities to girls translates

to gender equity in the labor market varies across

societies.

15. Note that innovative behavior is not always demo-

graphically favorable. Education can lead to unfavor-

able demographic outcomes such as the erosion of

traditional norms regarding postpartum sexual absti-

nence or breast-feeding, thus contributing to increased

fertility (e.g., Oni, 1985). Further, some scholars have

warned that education may also confer more liberal

attitudes toward high-risk behaviors and thus indirectly

increase the incidence of HIV/AIDS (Krull, 1994).

16. This finding offers an example of the kind of

potential ‘‘spillover’’ effect of schooling that makes

assessing the full range of benefits of investing in

education difficult to quantify. Psacharopoulos and

Patrinos (2002, p. 3) review studies that attempt to

quantity externalities of schooling, and characterize

these studies as inconclusive (for a similar assessment,

see Foster & Rosenzweig, 1995, pp. 1176–1177).

17. The four measures capture slightly different elements

of democracy, but are highly correlated. The index

designed by Ken Bollen (1980) captures the extent of

political liberties and popular sovereignty and is consid-

ered highly reliable and valid crossnationally. The mea-

sure designed by Zehra Arat (1991) captures four

dimensions of democracy: degree of popular participation

in political decision making, the lack of restrictiveness in

the franchise, the degree of competitiveness in the political

system, and the extent of civil liberties. A third measure,

developed by Tatu Vanhanen (1990), combines a measure

of political competition (the smaller parties� share of votesin either parliamentary or presidential elections) and the

degree of public participation (the percentage of the

population that voted). The fourth measure of democracy

is based on an annual crossnational survey coordinated

by Gastile (1987) and sponsored by the Freedom House.

In this measure, each country is ranked on two seven-

point scales according to the extent to which political

rights and civil liberties are respected.

18. The empirical evidence regarding the relationship

between education and tolerance is mixed. For example,

Weil (1985) shows that the relationship between indi-

vidual level of education and degree of political toler-

ances varies across countries.

19. For a summary of key guidelines emerging from the

UNESCO project, see ILI and UNESCO (1999).

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