Adapting business models: Ready for Post-COVID19?Prof. Dr. Oliver Gassmann & Georg von der Ropp13.05.2020
1987: Black Monday2000: Dot-com bubble2008: Financial crisis2011: Euro crisis2020: COVID-19
Government debtsAcross the globe
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China started in Feb. after the lockdown.Empty streets, busy factories.But:Consumer spending -40%Hotel nights – 35%Bankruptcies 3x
90%US-GDP-10% = largest since 2.WWdeep, long recession?
Consumption?Innovation?
What changes for us?
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BGW (2020)
Long-termShort-term
Winners
LosersGastronomy
Retail
What changes for us?
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BGW (2020)
Long-termShort-term
Winners
Losers
Where lies our future?
How tosurvive today?
Innovation in times of crisis: frugal and agile
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Textile companiesproduce masks
Innovation in times of crisis: frugal and agile
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Online degustationWinemaker
Innovation in times of crisis: frugal and agile
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Rent-a-dog, Madrid
Innovation in times of crisis: frugal and agile
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pragmaticleancost-effectivecreativethinking in sprintsand prototypes
The future is already here.It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson
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7 Steps to prepare for Post-COVID-19
Document your main business
models
Update your business
ecosystem
Develop scenarios
Analyse impact on your business
models
Identify new opportunities
Develop a post-Covid-19 vision for your
company
Roadmap for further procedure
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1. Document your main business models
<
ValueProposition
Revenue Model
Value Chain
What?
How?Value?
Who?
Why does the business model generate profit?
What do you offer to the customer?
Who is your target customer (segment)?
How is the value proposition created?
• 10,000 foot view on your business
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2. Update your business ecosystem
• Focus on change drivers impacted by thepandemic
• Existing trends could be reinforced,counter-trends could emerge, ...
• Foreseeable trends: • Digitalization & virtualization
• New work
• Regionalization
• Resilience before efficiency
• Select a few change driversBased on: ITEM/BGW 2017
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3. Develop scenariosFamiliarize yourself with options for what the future might look like
1. Define a time horizon, e.g. 3 years
2. Build assumptions on how influencing factors develop within the time horizon
3. Group assumptions into scenarios
4. Identify indicators that show which of the scenarios will occur
Examples:
• Enforcement vs. postponement of the Global Green New Deal
• Accelerated shift from retail outlets to e-commerce
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WHOCustomer and
Needs
Assumptions about customers & changing needs
Will customer needs remain /
increase / decrease?
Which customer segments gain / lose
importance
How is the market size affected
How will customer acquisition and
retention change
WHAT
Value Proposition and offered products
& services
Assumptions about changing
attractiveness of value proposition
Will VP's attractiveness
remain / increase / decrease
Which products and services gain / lose
importance
How is the market share being influenced
How do the number of
purchases per customer change
Internal resources and
processes
Assumptions about changes in
resources & processes
Will we still be able to deliver VP?
How will change in products / services
impact delivery
How will change of service delivery
impact costs
What kind of changes are
necessary for the operating model
External partners and supply chain
Assumptions about partners and changes in
supply chain
Will key partners be able to contribute
How will change in products / services or markets impact
key partners
How will a change in partners affect
costs
What kind of changes are
necessary for the partner model
VALUEStrategic and
economic viability
Assumtions about revenues and cost
drivers
Is there still a rationale for this
business
What is the impact on revenue model
and prices
How will the ability and willingness to
pay change
What are the main change drivers for
business case
Key assumptions of scenario
Problem / Solution Fit
Product / Market Fit Willingness To Pay Value Delivery &
SalesImpact Analysis
HOW
Implications from Scenario XYZ on
Business Model ABC
Business Model Evaluation Matrix: Business Model ABC and Scenario XYZ
4. Analyse impact on your business models• Analyse impact of most
relevant scenario(s)
• Detail the need for adaptation of business models
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5. Identify new opportunities
• Focus on drivers that lead to new orchanging customer needs
• Identify opportunities to create new businesses matching your skills and resources
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6. Develop a post-Covid-19 vision for your companyHow will the company look after a successful transformation in a post-Covid-19 world
• Build on your purpose & mission statements
• Project your time horizon in the future
• Dream big and focus on success
• Use the present tense to describe what we achieved
• Address heads and hearts
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7. Roadmap for further procedure
• Define responsibilities
• Decide how to track and monitor indicators
• Initiate projects to adapt existing business models and develop new ones
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7 Steps to prepare for Post-COVID-19Document your main business
models
Update your business
ecosystem
Develop scenarios
Analyse impact on your business
models
Identify new opportunities
Develop a post-Covid-19 vision for your
company
Roadmap for further procedure
Prof. Dr. Oliver Gassmann2020 No. 23
Prof. Dr. Oliver GassmannUniversity of St. Gallen
DirectorInstitute for Technology ManagementDufourstrasse 40aCH-9000 St. Gallen
Georg von der Ropp
CEO BMI Lab AGHardturmstrasse 161CH-8005 Zurich
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Before you leave…
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Find all the resources to start preparing for the post-COVID-19 worldhere: https://bmilab.com/resources
Don‘t miss our latest newshttps://bmilab.com/blog
Get in touch for more information: [email protected]
Prof. Dr. Oliver Gassmann2020 No. 27
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