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THE RISE OF HERMAN CAIN: GOP VOTERS GIVE HIM
A DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD OVER ROMNEY
This weeks Economist/YouGov Poll results provide no doubt who the GOP favorite
is: businessman Herman Cain has a double-digit lead over former Massachusetts
Governor Mitt Romney. And now Cains popularity with registered voters who say
they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus next year is not only because of
his support from those GOP voters who identify with the Tea Party.
If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want
to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012?
Registered voters who are likely
to vote in Republican primary or caucus
All Tea Party followers Non-Tea Party followers
Mitt Romney 21% 19% 22%
Newt Gingrich 11% 11% 10%
Michele Bachmann 4% 2% 6%
Jon Huntsman 3% 0% 6%
Ron Paul 10% 10% 9%
Herman Cain 31% 38% 24%Rick Santorum 3% 4% 2%
Rick Perry 8% 8% 7%Gary Johnson 0% 1% 0%
Other 5% 3% 6%
No preference 6% 4% 8%
Cain leads Romney 31% to 21% among all Republican voters, and by 38% to 19%
among Tea Partiers (who make up nearly half of all Republican voters). He and
Romney are co-frontrunners with the 56% of Republican voters who do not iden-
tify with that group. 24% of non-Tea Party GOP voters favor Cain, 22% Romney.
As for the rest of the field, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Congress-
man Ron Paul and Texas Governor Rick Perry have the support of about one in ten
GOP voters. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, once a favorite, has
dropped to only 4% support.
Cain may yet have a long way to go to reach Democratic and independent voters.
But Republican voters see him as caring, sharing their values, tough and capable
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enough to do the job. In fact, he does better than Romney does with Republican
voters when it comes to caring about them, and sharing their values.
He is tough enough for
the job of president.
He understands
complex issues.
He shares
my values.
He cares about people
like me.
68%
68%
68%
63%
48%
65%
50%
63%
Herman Cain
Mitt Romney
Please tell us whether you agree or disagree with each of thefollowing statements about these Republican presidential candidates.
(Registered voters who are likely to vote in Republican primary or caucus)
Displaying percent who agree only
But among the public overall, both Cain and Romney are seen mostly negatively.
However, Americans are more likely to see both Republicans as tough enough to
handle the job. Romney scores better than Cain with the public overall when it
comes to understanding the complex problems a President must face, and having
the overall qualifications to be a good president.
Romney is seen as more electable that Cain is. By 40% to 27%, Americans think
the President would defeat Cain. They see a Romney-Obama matchup as more
competitive. But both men would now give President Barack Obama a very close
contest if next Novembers election were being held today. When registered voters
are asked who they would support today, Obama leads Romney by just four points,
and Cain by just three.
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Mitt Romney Herman Cain
45%
41%
8%6%
45%42%
6% 7%
Barack Obama
Republican Candidate
Other
Not sure
If the 2012 presidential election were being held today,and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat,
and the following Republican candidate, would you vote forBarack Obama or the Republican candidate?
(Registered voters only)
WHATS 9-9-9?: MOST HAVE HEARD OF IT, BUT
AMERICANS OPPOSE CAINS PLAN 35% TO 24%
Businessman Herman Cains top economic proposal is his 9-9-9 tax plan: a 9%
federal business tax, a 9% federal payroll tax and a 9% sales tax. Two out of three
respondents in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll have heard of this plan and
more importantly so have 84% of Republican primary voters.
GOP voters and the public overall hold very different opinions of 9-9-9: Repub-
lican voters are twice as likely to favor as oppose it, while the public is negative.
However, many people arent sure quite what to think of it.
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Allrespondents
Republicanprimary voters
24%
15%
35%
26%
50%
13%
21%
16%
Favor
Neither favor, nor oppose
Oppose
Not sure
Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain has proposed replacingthe current U.S. tax code with a 9 percent federal business tax,a 9 percent federal payroll tax, and a 9 percent federal sales tax.
Do you favor or oppose this proposal?
Republican voters are especially concerned about taxes. Nearly half of them say
they pay more than their fair share of taxes, something just a third of Democratic
voters say. Democratic voters are more likely to believe they pay their fair share of
taxes.
Republicanprimary voters
Democraticprimary voters
46% 45%
3%6%
33%
54%
4%
9%
More than fair share
About right
Less than fair share
I don't file taxes
Do you feel you pay more than your fair share infederal income taxes, less than your fair share,
or is the amount you pay about right?
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And Republican voters are much more likely to think that the tax burden falls too
heavily on wealthier Americans. Nearly a third of them say the wealthy pay more
than their fair share of taxes. Thats not because GOP voters think of themselves as
wealthy: only 2% of Republican voters describe themselves that way.
AMERICANS LIKE OBAMAS JOBS PROPOSALS: BUT
ONLY 32% THINK HIS PLAN WILL CREATE MANY
JOBS
The components of President Barack Obamas jobs plan meet with general approval
and there even is bi-partisan support for some of the ideas at least until thepublic is told that the plan is Obamas. But there remains skepticism in the lat-
est Economist /YouGov Poll that the Presidents proposals will create a significant
number of new jobs.
Only 32% believe the Presidents jobs plan will create a significant number of new
jobs; 39% say it wont. And when Americans look backwards, many dont see the
2009 stimulus package as having helped the economy. Only one in four say it did;
a majority believes it either had no effect or hurt the economy.
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Not sure
Would not create a substantialnumber of new jobs
Would create a substantialnumber of new jobs
29%
39%
32%
The measures just described are a part of President Obama's jobs plan.Taken together, do you think it would create a substantial
number of new jobs in the U.S. or not?
Helped No effect Hurt Not sure
25% 23%
35%
16%
In February 2009, Congress passed President Obama's $787 billioneconomic stimulus bill. Overall, do you think that the
2009 stimulus bill helped or hurt the economy?
The public supports several aspects of the current jobs plan, however. They want
spending for highways and transit, for school construction, for hiring teachers,
police and firefighters. They would give tax credits to businesses for hiring the long-
term unemployed, and for hiring disabled military veterans. Smaller pluralities
would extend unemployment benefits and extend the Social Security tax cut for
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workers. Nearly half favor raising revenues with a 5.6% tax hike for those whose
incomes exceed $1 million.
Do you favor or oppose the following measures to stimulate theeconomy and create jobs? (Asked of half of respondents)
Favor Oppose Not sure
Extending and expanding the Social Security
payroll tax cut for workers 41% 22% 37%
Reducing the Social Security taxes paidby businesses on the first $5 million
in wages paid in 2012 24% 40% 35%
Funding highways, transit, rail
and aviation improvements 52% 21% 26%
Funding school construction 48% 27% 24%
Extending unemployment benefits 41% 32% 24%
Offering tax credits for businesses thathire the long-term unemployed 54% 20% 24%
Providing aid to local governments
to save and create jobs for teachers,
police and firefighters 52% 26% 20%
Funding job creation measures through a 5.6%
surtax on annual incomes over $1 million 49% 27% 22%
Offering tax credits for businesses hiring military
veterans with service-related disabilities whohave been unemployed more than six months 63% 13% 24%
Extending tax provisions allowing companies to more
quickly write off the cost of new equipment 41% 22% 37%
Half the sample was asked for their opinion on these items without being told that
they were part of the Presidents jobs bill. The other half was told these were pieces
of the Presidents bill. Overall support did not change much, but on some items
where the support came from did. For example, a majority of Republicans favored
extending tax provisions allowing businesses to write off the cost of new equipment
more quickly in principle; GOP support was ten points lower among the half sample
told this was what the Presidents plan did. At the same time, Democratic support
rose 12 points.
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MAIN STREET SEES OCCUPY WALL STREET
FAVORABLY OWS FARES BETTER THAN THE
TEA PARTY
The Occupy Wall Street movement continues to gather attention and increas-
ingly positive assessments from the public. In this weeks Economist/YouGov Poll
31% say they have heard a great deal about OWS, up ten points in one week. More
than eight in ten have heard something, nearly as many as those who have heard
something about the more than one year old Tea Party movement.
October 811, 2011 October 1518, 2011
21%
34%
22% 23%
31% 31%
19% 18%
A great deal
A fair amount
Not much
Nothing at all
How much have you heard or read about the protest movementknown as the Occupy Wall Street movement?
More important, Americans seem to like the Occupy Wall Street movement. By
43% to 30%, they support its goals. Even among those with incomes above $100,000,
more say they support the movements goals than oppose them.
OWS fares much better in public esteem than does the Tea Party. Opinion of the
Tea Party is slightly more negative than positive.
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The Tea Party movement The Occupy Wall Street movement
35%
15%
39%
11%
43%
16%
30%
11%
SupportNeither support, nor oppose
Oppose
Not sure
Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the goals of...
(Asked if respondent is aware of these movements)
Occupy Wall Street identifiers are from all age groups and all educational and in-
come levels. They are more likely to be Democrats, and unlike the public over-
all they are hopeful about government spending and the Presidents jobs bills. By
more than three to one, they favor government spending to create jobs and stimulate
the economy. By more than two to one, they believe the Presidents jobs bill would
create a significant number of new jobs.In addition, OWS identifiers are engaged in the 2012 election. Just as many OWS
identifiers as Tea Partiers claim to be paying very close attention to the campaign,
making both groups far more attentive than the public overall.
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Allrespondents
Tea Partyfollowers
Occupy WallStreet followers
27%
33%
24%
16%
48%
40%
11%
0%
47%
33%
16%
4%
Very closely
Somewhat closely
Not too closelyNot at all
How closely have you been following news aboutthe 2012 presidential election campaign?
HARD TIMES: 72% SAY COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG
TRACK, PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS AT OR NEAR
RECORD LOWS IN APPROVAL
These are not good times for Americans. Americans overwhelmingly think thingsare off on the wrong track, and that concern also is bringing down their opinion of
the person in charge President Barack Obama. The Presidents approval ratings
is just one point above the lowest ever recorded for him inEconomist/YouGov Polls.
Just 38% approve of his handling of his job, while 53% disapprove.
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PercentofRespondents
"Do you approve or disapprove of the wayBarack Obama is handling his job as President?"
Obama Approval
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 53%
q
q
1
0
20
30
40
50
60
7
0
2009 2010 2011
There are other low marks for the President this week. Just 43% believe that he
mostly says what he really believes; 57% - close to the highest figure ever think
he panders and says mostly what he thinks people want to hear.
Overall judgments of how things are going in the country are at a record low. 72%
believe things are seriously off on the wrong track, near the highest level in the
Obama Presidency.
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Direction of Country
PercentofRespondents
"Would you say things in this country today aregenerally headed in the right direction
or off on the wrong track?"
q
q
Right: 14%
Wrong: 72%
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2009 2010 2011
As for Congress, its approval rating this week ties its all-tie low in this poll. Only
7% approve of how Congress is handling its job. Republicans feel only marginally
better: 16% of them approve. Just 4% of independents do. 77% of independents
disapprove.
Perce
ntofRespondents
"Do you approve or disapprove of the waythat the United States Congress is handling its job?"
Congress Approval
Approve: 7%
Disapprove: 68%
q
q
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2009 2010 2011
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