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Building Resilience Workshop IV New Orleans, Louisiana
Implementing Social Change & Resilience EconomicsUses of the COAST Approach to Catalyze Action:
Helping Communities and StakeholdersDecide on Economically Viable
Sea Level and Storm Surge Adaptation Strategies
with the COAST software tool
Jonathan T. Lockman, AICPVice President of Environmental Planning
March 8, 2013
1:30 PM
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What is COAST?
COastal Adaptation to
Sea level riseTool
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In the Spring of 2012,Dr. Sam Merrill, Director of the New England EFC at theMuskie School, created Catalysis Adaptation Partners , to
spread the use of the Coast Approach beyond Maine andNew England.
SamuelMerrill, PhDPresidentCOASTdeveloper
J.T. Lockman, AICP Vice PresidentEnvironmentalPlanning
Peter Slovinsky Vice PresidentGeologicalSciences
Paul Kirshen,
PhDSeniorTechnicalConsultantClimateScience
Ellen Douglas,
PE, PhD SeniorTechnicalConsultantEngineering
Jack Kartez,
PhDSeniorTechnicalConsultantCitizenEngagement
http://www.catalysisadaptation.com
http://www.catalysisadaptation.com/http://www.catalysisadaptation.com/7/27/2019 JT Lockman
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Why did we name the company Catalysis?
The word catalysis comes fromchemistry. To catalyze means to
create a reaction by bringing thingstogether; we are experts in catalyzinglocal adaptation to sea level rise andstorm surge, by bringing togetherinnovative technology with tailoredcommunity engagement processes.
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ACTIONSOCIAL POLITICAL
E C O N O M I C
Social +Political +Economic
Factors =Force for Action
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Helping Communities Decide on
Sea Level and Storm Surge Adaptation Strategieswith the COAST software tool
COAST is flexible; it can provide cost-benefit analysis for manycandidate adaptation actions to protect a diversity of vulnerable
assets, staged over time. Different scenarios for sea level rise and storm surge can be
inputted in to the model, after stakeholder engagement.Stakeholder engagement delivers social buy-in.
Vulnerabilities to damage are mapped and quantified based on thescenarios.
Costs of adaptation strategies are estimated. The software willgenerate prediction of cumulative expected damages avoided overtime, with different strategies providing a cost benefit analysis.
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There are only four adaptation options: 1) Do nothing (usually = remain in denial)
2) Fortify assets3) Accommodate higher water levels4) Relocate assets
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Steps in the COAST Process
1. Engage Stakeholders toSelect Different Scenarios forSea Level Rise and StormSurge.
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Scientists Get It But
Everyday People Do Too
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0
16
32
47
63
79
S e a
L e v e l
C h a n
g e ( i
n c h e s )
8
24
40
55
71
Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106, 21527 21532.
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Use Local Data Connect
with Peoples Experiences
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2. Provide a Vulnerability Assessment with CumulativeExpected Damage Estimates
Over Time for a No ActionScenario of Sea Level Rise andStorm Surge
Steps in the COAST Process
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New York City
Albany
Kingston
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Select an Asset to Model: Damage to Real Estate
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To Predict FutureDamage to Real EstateYou Need a Tax Parcel Map with Assessed Values
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Then you need to input predicted flood heights from the 10 year, 25 year, 50 year, 100 year, and
500 year storms, from your FEMA flood insurance study or whatever youve got
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COAST Model for City of Kingston Modeled Water Levels and Vulnerability Assessment
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COAST Model for City of Kingston - Modeled Water Levels and Vulnerability AssessmentResults
Year
SeaLevelRise
Scenario
StormIntensit
y (returnperiod
in years)
PredictedElevationof FloodHeightfromFEMA Flood
InsuranceStudy,2007
NAVD88(ft.) 1
COASTModel of
SeaLevelRise
AboveMHHW in 2013
Selectedby
Kingston(in./ft) 2
COASTModelTotalFlood
Elevation forEach
ScenarioNAVD 88
(ft.)
COAST ModelExpected
Damage to the Value of
All Buildings &Improvements
FromThis Single
Storm Incidentin the
Scenario Year($ Million)
COAST ModelExpected
Damage to the Value of
Waste WaterTreatment Plant
Only From
This Single StormIncident in theScenario Year
($ Million)
COAST ModelCumulative
Expected Damageto the Value of
All Buildings &Improvements
From All Storms , 2013 to
Scenario Year($ Million) 3
COAST ModelPercent of
Cumulative ExpectedDamage
to the Value of All Buildings &ImprovementsFrom 2013 toScenario Year
Attributable toSea Level Rise Only
(Percent) 3
20131
No SLR 10 yr 6.0 0 0 6.0 12.0 8.7 n/a n/a
2013 2No SLR 100 yr 8.2 0 0 8.2 21.7 16.8 n/a n/a
2060 3
Lo SLR 10 yr 6.0 20 1.67 7.7 18.8 14.4 69.0 26.8%
2060 4
Lo SLR 100 yr 8.2 20 1.67 9.9 24.7 18.8 69.0 26.8%
2060 5
Hi SLR 10 yr 6.0 36 3 9.0 22.0 16.8 73.5 31.7%
2060 6
Hi SLR 100 yr 8.2 36 3 11.2 29.5 22.2 73.5 31.7%
2100 7
Lo SLR 10 yr 6.0 33 1.75 8.8 21.9 16.8 82.7 28.6%
2100 8
Lo SLR 100 yr 8.2 33 1.75 11.0 27.5 20.6 82.7 28.6%
2100 9
Hi SLR 10 yr 6.0 68 5.67 11.7 29.7 22.2 88.3 34.8%
2100
10
Hi SLR 100 yr 8.2 68 5.67 13.9 34.5 24.8 88.3 34.8% 1Tidal state is included in FEMA FIS predicted flood elevations for the 10 year and 100 year storms.2Elevation of Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) in year 2013 is 3.0 feet (NAVD 88).
Date Run: 03-03-2013
Lost Value of Buildings and/or Improvements to Land
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Lost Value of Buildings and/or Improvements to LandFor Flooding Scenario #7 , Flood Height: 8.8 ft. (NAVD 88) Year 2100, With Low Sea Level Rise and a 10-year Storm10% Probability of Occurrence in Any Given Year
Total Damage for this Event: $21.9 MillionDamage to Wastewater Treatment Plant: $16.8 Million
Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise + Storm Surge
Cumulative Expected Damages by 2 With Low Sea Level Rise = $82.7 Million
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West Strand Street
Rondout Landing Area, Kingston, NY COAST OutputRelative Height of Blue Boxes Indicates Predicted DollarDamages to Buildings and Improvements
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Year 2060, 100-yr Storm, Hi SLR, Height = 14.2 ft NAVD 88
JAF Partners Inc.@1 Broadway Height of Blue Box IndicatesPredicted Damages toBuildings and Improvements
Scenario 6: Year 2060, 100-yr Storm, Hi SLR, Height = 14.2 ft NAVD 88
PrintKey 56.43-5-40
Acreage 0.12392824
ADDRESS_NU 1
ADDRESS_NA BROADWAY
PRIOR_PC 482
NEW_PC 482
OWNER_1 JAF Partners Inc
STREET 30 Broadway
CITY_STATE Kingston NY
ZIP_CODE 12401
BOOK 01512
PAGE 00355
PR_TOTAL_A 1012000
PR_LAND_AV 169000
ZONING RT
NO_BEDS 0
NO_BATHS 0
bldgvalue 843000
RawDepth 2.151024288
Depth 2.151024288
Damage 157897.134100422
Extrusion 16.78971341
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COAST Model Output Can Be Easily Used by the Community
All output files are in Google Earthformat, and can be easily distributed.
Google Earth is available as a freedownload usable on a variety of operatingsystems. Friends can share the files anduse them at home to show others.
Users can fly through the community toany location and look up potential flooddepths and damages.
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Damage to Assets Other than Real Estate
Can be Modeled:Economic outputPublic health impacts
Displaced persons, vulnerable demographicsNatural resources valuesCultural resources valuesCommunity impactsInfrastructure (transportation, energy, facilities,telecommunications )
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3. Select Candidate Adaptation Actions to Protect from Sea Level
Rise and Storm Surge, StagedOver Time, and Estimate theCosts of Each Action
Next Steps in the COAST Process
4. Perform a Cost Benefit Analysisof Adaptation Strategies
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Example: Groton/Mystic, Connecticut
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Selected Public Assets and Thresholds for Vulnerability
Asset 100 Yr.Flood
High SLR Low SLR
Seabrook WW Treatment Plant 9.8 now now
Hampton WW Treatment Plant 9.8 now now
Hampton Police Station 8.2 now now
Hampton Sewage Pump Station 6.6 now now Seabrook Middle/Elem. School 14.8 ~2080 >2100
Hampton High School 23.0 >2100 >2100
NextEra Nuclear Power Plant 19.7 >2100 >2100
Example: Hampton Beach, New Hampshire
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S i l l l d
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Credit: Robin Utrecht/AFP/Getty Images Flooding in the Netherlands
Some social lessons learnedusing the COAST approach:
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Some social lessons learned
using the COAST approach:Fear is a powerful motivator.Communities that have experienced f looding dont needconvincing that there is a problem.
Citizens want cities, towns and states to get beyond vulnerability studies and to start putting adaptationstrategies in place! As a general rule, local action is the level where we are working.Higher levels of government provide research and basicresources that we use (aerial photography, LiDAR, grantsfor studies), but States and the US Congress are notbuilding free adaptations anymore.
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Some social lessons learned
using the COAST approach: Agenda 21 and Tea Party Activism can make lifedifficult, but no one wants to drown in a flood.
Ultimately People and Business Owners want theirpocketbooks protected. Appropriations for expensive designs for adaptationstrategies (for example, elevating waterfronts orrelocating sewage treatment plants) will not happenuntil there is enough of a social/political/economicconsensus on a particular direction to take.
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[email protected] 207-590-5031http://www.catalysisadaptation.com
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]