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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Pre-prov. profit 638 704 (9.4) 687 (7.1)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Andhra Bank posted a weak operating performance, with a 7.1% yoy decline in itsoperating profit. However, the bank was able to report a marginal net profitgrowth of 3.0%, aided by lower provisioning expenses (PCR declined by 723bpqoq). Slippages continued to remain elevated for the bank, which coupled withlower recoveries/upgrades, resulted in persistent asset quality stress.
: The bank witnesseda healthy growth in its business during 2QFY2013, with advances and depositsregistering a growth of 15.9% and 15.0% yoy, respectively. The healthy advancesgrowth was largely aided by strong growth in agri book and robust growth in SMEand Corporate book. CASA deposits grew at 14.0% yoy. The CASA ratio declinedby 78bp qoq to 25.9%. Reported NIMs were lower by 20bp qoq to 3.1% onaccount of an 8bp qoq decline in yield on advances and 29bp sequentially highercosts of deposits. The bank witnessed a robust growth of 37.6% yoy on thenon-interest income (excluding treasury) front, which was largely aided by stronggrowth of 30.8% yoy in fee income and higher recoveries. On the asset qualityfront, the bank continued to see stress, with both gross and net NPA levelsincreasing sequentially by 27.8% and 41.6%, respectively. Slippages came in at`771cr, though lower compared to `833cr in 1QFY2013, but remained elevated
considering slippages of `853cr in entire 2HFY2012. `530cr of the incrementalslippages came out of 3 chunky accounts belonging to pharmaceuticals,hotels and gems & jewelry sector. The management however exudedconfidence in upgrading two of these three accounts in the coming quarter.Recoveries/upgrades came in lower at `113cr compared to `142cr in 1QFY2013and `551cr in 4QFY2012. PCR dipped by a substantial 723bp qoq to 53.2%. Thebank also restructured advances worth `451cr, which largely came frominfrastructure, iron & steel and textiles sectors. As of 2QFY2013, the totaloutstanding restructured book stands at `9,077cr (10.6% of total advances). Themanagement has guided for advances worth ~`1,200cr to be in the restructuringpipeline for 2HFY2013, which includes an advance of ~`450cr to Tamil Nadu SEB.
At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV
compared to its eight-year range of 0.81.4x one-year forward ABV with amedian of 1.1x. Considering the banks relatively higher risk exposure, particularlyto the power, iron & steel and textiles sectors, and taking into account that peers ofthe bank are also trading at similar valuations with similar or better asset qualityoutlook
% chg 46.8 16.7 1.2 16.0
% chg 21.2 6.1 (10.5) 1.3
NIM (%) 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.0
P/E (x) 4.6 4.3 4.8 4.8
P/ABV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
RoA (%) 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8
RoE (%) 23.2 19.2 15.2 13.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
CMP `96
Target Price -
Investment Period -
Stock Info
Sector Banking
Market Cap (` cr) 5,383
Beta 1.0
52 Week High / Low 139/79
Avg. Daily Volume 75,815
Face Value (`) 10
BSE Sensex 17,558
Nifty 5,320
Reuters Code ADBK.BO
Bloomberg Code ANDB@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 58.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 15.2
FII / NRIs / OCBs 13.4
Indian Public / Others 13.5
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 6.9 2.5 17.0
Andhra Bank (8.1) (28.7) 13.8
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872
Performance Highlights
2QFY2013 Result Update | Banking
November 16, 2012
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Andhra Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
November 16, 2012 2
Exhibit 1:2QFY2013 performance (standalone)
- on Advances / Bills 2,551 2,520 1.2 2,293 11.3 5,071 4,458 13.8- on investments 602 579 4.0 477 26.3 1,181 930 27.1
- on balance with RBI & others 27 22 23.7 13 113.6 49 18 178.3
- on others 18 - - - - 18 12 49.3
Other income excl. treasury 214 211 1.4 156 37.6 425 313 35.8
- CEB 70 65 8.8 62 14.2 135 119 13.4
- Treasury Income 5 25 (78.4) 22 (76.0) 30 82 (63.3)
- Recoveries from writ.-off acc 16 44 (63.8) 4 288.3 60 9 597.6
- Others 128 103 24.8 90 42.2 231 186 24.1
- Employee expenses 297 296 0.4 274 8.5 593 547 8.4
- Other Opex 178 174 2.3 169 5.6 352 323 9.0
- Provisions for NPAs 121 157 (22.9) 221 (45.1) 279 338 (17.6)
- Provisions for Investments (14) 13 - 3 - (1) 5 -
- Other Provisions 32 36 (9.8) 37 (12.2) 68 95 (28.1)
Effective Tax Rate (%) 34.7 27.1 758bp 25.8 888bp 30.9 26.0 488bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:2QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimatesNet interest income 894 972 (8.0)
Non-interest income 219 208 5.4
Operating expenses 475 490 (3.0)
Provisions & cont. 139 274 (49.0)
PBT 499 416 19.7
Prov. for taxes 173 108 59.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Andhra Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
November 16, 2012 3
Exhibit 3:2QFY2013 performance (standalone)
Advances (`cr) 85,299 86,612 (1.5) 73,592 15.9
Deposits (`cr) 108,647 107,695 0.9 94,435 15.0
Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 78.5 80.4 (191)bp 77.9 58bp
Current deposits (` cr) 5,937 6,269 (5.3) 5,338 11.2
Saving deposits (`cr) 22,219 22,485 (1.2) 19,355 14.8
CASA deposits (`cr) 28,156 28,754 (2.1) 24,693 14.0
CASA ratio (%) 25.9 26.7 (78)bp 26.1 (23)bp
CAR (%) 12.4 12.7 (29)bp 13.1 (68)bp
Tier 1 CAR (%) 8.5 8.7 (21)bp 8.8 (30)bp
Cost of deposits 8.0 7.7 29bp 7.5 58bp
Yield on advances 12.0 12.1 (8)bp 12.5 (45)bp
Yield on investments 8.0 7.9 8bp 7.8 26bp
Yield on funds 10.0 10.0 4bp 10.1 (10)bp
Cost of funds 7.2 7.0 24bp 6.7 56bp
Reported NIM 3.1 3.3 (20)bp 3.8 (69)bp
Cost-to-income ratio 42.7 40.0 267bp 39.2 351bp
Gross NPAs (`cr) 3,014 2,358 27.8 1,987 51.7
Gross NPAs (%) 3.5 2.7 76bp 2.7 81bp
Net NPAs (`cr) 1,831 1,293 41.6 1,087 68.5
Net NPAs (%) 2.2 1.5 64bp 1.5 68bp
Provision Coverage Ratio (%) 53.2 60.4 (723)bp 61.7 (854)bp
Slippage ratio (%) 3.7 4.0 (29)bp 6.1 (244)bp
Loan loss provision to avg assets (%) 0.4 0.5 (12)bp 0.8 (42)bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
Business growth healthy; NIM declines by 20bp sequentially
The bank witnessed a healthy growth in its business during 2QFY2013, with
advances and deposits registering a growth of 15.9% and 15.0% yoy, respectively.
The healthy advances growth was largely aided by strong growth of 26.2% in agri
book and robust growth of 16.7% and 15.2% yoy in the SME and Corporate book
respectively. Growth in the retail loan book for the bank remained moderate at
6.0% yoy.
On the liabilities front, savings deposits registered a healthy growth of 14.8% yoy,
while growth in current deposits was moderate at 11.2% yoy. Consequently,
overall CASA deposits grew at 14.0% yoy. The CASA ratio dipped by 23bp yoy and
78bp qoq to 25.9%.
Reported NIMs for the bank dipped by 20bp qoq to 3.1% on account of 8bp qoq
decline in yield on advances and 29bp sequentially higher cost of deposits. Yieldon advances declined by 8bp qoq, on account of interest reversal of ~`60cr and
base rate reduction. Cost of deposits was higher by 29bp qoq, partly on account
of lower CASA ratio. Yield on investments for the bank grew by 8bp qoq to 8.0%.
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Andhra Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
November 16, 2012 4
Exhibit 4:Business growth healthy
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5:CASA ratio declines sequentially
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6:29bp qoq higher Cost of deposits, led to...
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7:...20bp sequential fall in reported NIM
Source: Company, Angel Research
Strong growth in fee income and higher recoveries, lead to
robust growth in non-interest income
During 2QFY2013, the bank witnessed a robust growth of 37.6% yoy in non-
interest income (excluding treasury), which was largely aided by strong growth of
30.8% yoy in fee income and higher recoveries. Growth in CEB income was
moderate at 14.2% yoy, however a strong performance by forex and other income
streams resulted in a strong growth of 30.8% yoy in the overall fee income.Recoveries came in higher during the quarter at `16cr compared to `4cr in
2QFY2012. The treasury income was lower at `5cr compared to `22cr in
2QFY2012 on account of a high base (investments in liquid MFs liquidated post
the RBI limit of 10% of NW). Overall, the non-interest income witnessed a strong
growth of 23.4% yoy, during 2QFY2013.
Elevated slippages coupled with lower recoveries/upgrades
resulted in persistent asset quality stress
During 2QFY2013, the asset quality for the bank continued to see stress, with both
gross and net NPA levels increasing sequentially by 27.8% and 41.6%,
respectively. Consequently gross and net NPA ratios were higher by 76bp and
64bp qoq respectively to 3.5% and 2.2%. Slippages came in at `771cr, which
21.5
20.7
17.1
14.4
15.9
20.2
20.2
14.9
18.5
15.0
77.9
80.2
79.0
80.4
78.5
76.5
77.5
78.5
79.5
80.5
81.5
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
Adv. yoy chg (%) Dep. yoy chg (%) CDR (%, RHS)
26.1
26.6
26.4
26.7
25.9
3.4
12.1
4.4
13.6 14.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.014.0
16.0
25.4
25.6
25.8
26.0
26.2
26.426.6
26.8
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
CASA ratio CASA yoy growth (%, RHS)
7.457.59
7.947.74
8.03
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
(%)
3.82 3.81
3.34 3.33
3.13
2.00
2.40
2.80
3.20
3.60
4.00
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
(%)
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Andhra Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
November 16, 2012 5
though were lower compared to `833cr in 1QFY2013, but remained elevated
considering slippages of `853cr in entire 2HFY2012. The annualized slippage
ratio came in at 3.7% compared to 4.0% in 1QFY2013. `530cr of the incremental
slippages came out of 3 chunky accounts belonging to pharmaceuticals, hotelsand gems & jewelry sector. The management however exuded confidence in
upgrading two of these three accounts in the coming quarter.
Recoveries/upgrades came in lower during the quarter at `113cr compared to
`142cr in 1QFY2013 and `551cr in 4QFY2012. The management was not
able to recover a chunky advance amounting to ~`200cr, which it had guided
for. The PCR dipped on a sequential basis by a substantial 723bp to 53.2%.
The management plans to increase the PCR level to 60% by FY2013.
During the quarter, the bank also restructured advances worth `451cr compared
to restructuring of `751 in 1QFY2013, which largely came from infrastructure, iron
& steel and textiles sectors. As of 2QFY2013, the banks total outstandingrestructured book stands at `9,077cr (10.6% of total advances). The management
has guided for advances worth ~`1,200cr to be in the restructuring pipeline for
2HFY2013, which includes an advance of ~`450cr to Tamil Nadu SEB.
Exhibit 8:Asset quality face persistent pressures
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9:Slippages remained at elevated levels
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: PCR including tech. write-offs
Exhibit 10:Cost-to-income ratio higher in 2QFY2013
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11:Employee expenses trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
2.7
2.4
2.1
2.7
3.5
1.5
1.2
0.9
1.5
2.2
61.765.4
71.1
60.453.2
-
15.0
30.0
45.0
60.0
75.0
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS)
6.1
2.1
2.6
4.0
3.7
0.8
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.4
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-
1.0
2.0
3.04.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
Slippages (%) Credit cost (%, RHS)
39.2
37.0
42.2
40.0
42.7
1.6
1.61.6
1.5 1.5
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
Cost-to-income ratio (%) Opex to average assets (%, RHS)
274
285
319
296
297
0.2
4.1
11.9
(7.2)
0.4
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
Staff expenses (`cr) QoQ growth (% , RHS)
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Exhibit 12:Key assumptions
Credit growth 12.0 13.0 12.0 13.0Deposit growth 13.0 15.0 13.0 15.0
CASA ratio 25.5 24.5 25.5 24.5
NIMs 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0
Other income growth 7.6 10.3 7.7 9.8
Growth in staff expenses 12.0 13.0 8.0 13.0
Growth in other expenses 15.0 13.0 15.0 13.0
Slippages 2.8 2.7 3.8 3.1
Coverage Ratio 65.0 67.5 55.0 60.0
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 13:Change in estimates
Non-interest income 926 926 0.0 1,021 1,016 (0.5)
Operating expenses 2,040 1,994 (2.3) 2,306 2,254 (2.3)
Provisions & cont. 1,095 1,017 (7.2) 1,366 1,372 0.4
PBT 1,793 1,720 (4.1) 1,961 1,806 (7.9)
Prov. for taxes 466 516 10.7 588 586 (0.4)
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 14:P/ABV band
Source: Company, Angel Research
0
40
80
12 0
16 0
20 0
24 0
Apr-02
Nov-0
2
Jun-0
3
Jan-0
4
Aug-0
4
Mar-05
Oct-05
May-0
6
Dec-0
6
Jul-07
Feb-0
8
Sep-0
8
Apr-09
Nov-0
9
Jun-1
0
Jan-1
1
Aug-1
1
Mar-12
Oct-12
Price (`) 0.6x 0.8x 1x 1.2x 1.4x
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Andhra Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
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Exhibit 15:Recommendation summary
AxisBk Buy 1,226 1,476 20.4 1.7 2.0 8.9 16.0 1.6 20.2
FedBk Accumulate 459 491 7.1 1.1 1.2 8.9 6.7 1.1 13.3
HDFCBk Neutral 642 - - 3.6 - 17.8 27.9 1.9 22.0
ICICIBk* Buy 1,027 1,270 23.8 1.7 2.0 12.4 21.7 1.5 15.7
SIB Accumulate 23 25 7.0 1.0 1.1 6.0 4.2 0.9 16.9
YesBk Buy 416 492 18.5 2.1 2.5 9.8 23.5 1.5 23.5
AllBk Accumulate 137 152 10.7 0.6 0.7 4.1 (5.6) 0.8 14.5
BOB Accumulate 736 817 10.9 0.9 1.0 5.4 6.4 1.0 17.0
BOI Accumulate 274 294 7.5 0.7 0.8 4.3 16.9 0.8 15.8
BOM Neutral 54 - - 0.7 - 4.5 38.9 0.7 16.1
CanBk Neutral 428 - - 0.8 - 5.3 4.0 0.8 14.6CentBk Neutral 75 - - 0.6 - 3.5 102.4 0.6 14.9
CorpBk Accumulate 396 445 12.6 0.7 0.7 4.0 (3.4) 0.7 14.7
DenaBk Accumulate 108 123 13.9 0.7 0.8 4.5 2.5 0.8 15.6
IDBI# Neutral 103 - - 0.7 - 4.7 17.5 0.9 13.9
IndBk Accumulate 174 195 12.4 0.6 0.7 4.1 2.8 1.1 16.3
IOB Neutral 75 - - 0.5 - 3.8 23.0 0.6 13.1
J&KBk Neutral 1,320 - - 1.1 - 6.8 7.9 1.3 17.7
OBC Accumulate 317 347 9.4 0.7 0.8 4.9 29.0 0.9 14.4
PNB Accumulate 743 843 13.4 0.8 0.9 4.5 6.8 1.0 17.3
SBI* Buy 2,108 2,437 15.6 1.4 1.6 8.2 21.5 1.0 17.7
SynBk Accumulate 119 131 9.4 0.7 0.8 4.4 11.5 0.7 16.6
UcoBk Neutral 72 - - 0.7 - 4.3 7.9 0.6 14.4
UnionBk Accumulate 222 250 12.2 0.8 0.9 4.8 20.3 0.8 16.4
UtdBk Accumulate 67 74 10.2 0.476 0.525 3.1 18.4 0.7 15.7
VijBk Neutral 54 - - 0.6 - 4.8 12.1 0.5 13.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries); # without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Andhra Bank is a mid-sized PSU bank, with a balance sheet size of ~`1.3lakh cr.
The bank has a network of over 1,730 branches, mainly concentrated in thesouthern region (~two-third of total branches in the parent state of Andhra
Pradesh).
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November 16, 2012 9
- YoY growth (%) (5.5) 21.5 34.9 46.8 16.7 1.2 16.0
- YoY growth (%) 19.9 22.2 26.0 (7.0) (4.1) 7.7 9.8
- YoY growth (%) 1.3 21.7 32.1 30.3 12.2 2.4 14.8
- YoY growth (%) (2.6) 21.5 22.2 26.3 5.8 10.5 13.0
- YoY growth (%) 5.0 21.9 40.5 33.3 16.7 (2.8) 16.1
- YoY growth (%) (37.2) 179.9 (4.1) 72.8 53.4 2.6 34.9
- YoY growth (%) 16.9 (2.1) 59.9 23.1 3.2 (5.7) 5.0
- as a % of PBT 37.3 27.3 27.2 28.3 26.3 30.0 32.4
- YoY growth (%) 7.0 13.5 60.1 21.2 6.1 (10.5) 1.3
Share Capital 485 485 485 560 560 560 560
Reserves & Surplus 2,764 3,162 3,925 5,933 6,920 7,831 8,758
Deposits 49,437 59,390 77,688 92,156 105,851 119,612 137,554
- Growth (%) 19.3 20.1 30.8 18.6 14.9 13.0 15.0
Borrowings 591 1,311 2,832 4,620 5,221 5,879 6,729
Tier 2 Capital 1,115 2,040 3,020 3,020 3,020 2,945 2,871
Other Liab. & Prov. 2,201 2,081 2,392 2,612 3,393 3,894 4,598
Cash Balances 4,902 4,853 6,699 7,184 5,564 5,383 5,502
Bank Balances 793 434 4,469 3,275 3,082 2,814 3,221
Investments 14,898 16,911 20,881 24,204 29,629 35,422 42,584
Advances 34,238 44,139 56,114 71,435 83,642 93,679 105,857
- Growth (%) 22.8 28.9 27.1 27.3 17.1 12.0 13.0
Fixed Assets 219 335 356 317 303 330 367
Other Assets 1,542 1,796 1,825 2,485 2,745 3,092 3,539
- Growth (%) 19.0 21.0 31.9 20.5 14.8 12.6 14.5
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Ratio analysis (standalone)
NIMs 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.0Cost to Income Ratio 46.2 46.2 42.7 41.4 39.1 42.2 41.5
RoA 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8
RoE 18.0 18.9 26.0 23.2 19.2 15.2 13.8
CASA Ratio 33.6 31.4 29.4 29.1 26.4 25.5 24.5
Credit/Deposit Ratio 69.3 74.3 72.2 77.5 79.0 78.3 77.0
CAR 11.6 13.2 13.9 14.4 13.2 12.6 11.9
- Tier I 8.5 8.7 8.2 9.7 9.0 9.0 8.7
Gross NPAs 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.4 2.1 4.3 5.3
Net NPAs 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.4 2.5
Slippages 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.8 3.8 3.1
Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8
Provision Coverage 85.6 78.5 91.6 83.9 71.1 55.0 60.0
EPS 11.9 13.5 21.6 22.6 24.0 21.5 21.8
ABVPS (75% cover.) 67.0 75.2 90.9 116.0 131.9 132.2 148.8
DPS 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.5
PER (x) 8.7 7.7 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.8 4.8
P/ABVPS (x) 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
Dividend Yield 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.3 4.3 4.3
NII 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.9
(-) Prov. Exp. 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9
Adj. NII 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.0
Treasury 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Int. Sens. Inc. 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.0
Other Inc. 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6
Op. Inc. 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.7
Opex 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5PBT 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.2
Taxes 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Leverage 16.3 18.1 19.7 18.3 16.7 16.7 17.0
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
the past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.
Disclosure of Interest Statement Andhra Bank
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors