Womem employment

21
ISBN 0019-5723 INDIAN LABOUR JOURNAL (A MONTHLY PUBLICATION) Vol. 53 October 2012 No.10 GOVERMNET OF INDIA MINISTRY OF LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT LABOUR BUREAU SHIMLA/CHANDIGARH

Transcript of Womem employment

ISBN 0019-5723

INDIAN

LABOUR

JOURNAL

(A MONTHLY PUBLICATION)

Vol. 53 October 2012 No.10

GOVERMNET OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU

SHIMLA/CHANDIGARH

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

961

WOMEN EMPLOYMENT SCENARIO IN INDIA - BASED ON NSS DATA

B.S. Kambo and Dr. Kulwinder Kaur

Introduction: Recent employment statistics from 66th NSS round 2009-10 over the last quinquennial (2004-05) revealed a downward trend in labour force and work force of women. The ray of economic reforms highlighted that the problems of poverty, unemployment and inequalities based on gender, caste and class will be reduced. However, it is assumed that a simple correlation exist between women work and women status. The characteristic features of the structure of the female workforce in the 1990s is often highlighted as an increasing feminization of the urban workforce on account of an increased work participation for urban women, a feminization of agriculture an account of an increased share of women workers in the primary sector, decrease in secondary sector employment and an increase in tertiary sector employment. In our Indian society, Women as a category of workers need special attention and focus as the contribution of women is mostly undermined. This may be due to various reasons behind this. First, women have to craft a balance between children, work and home. They have to take care of their children and work and simultaneously being loyal to their employers. This is true fact that women balance it very nicely. Second, most of the women do not work at odd hours due to security reasons or even family do not allow them to do so. There is also an absence of any widespread system for social security for women. Third, in a male dominated society, imperfect information due to low social networking of female of various economic opportunities may act as constraints in grasping of the emerging opportunities. Therefore, major contribution of the women workers is in informal sector. This may be due to Indian society hinders women’s access to jobs in stores, factories and so on. But again, informal sector includes jobs such as domestic servant, small traders, and artisan or field labourer on a family firm. Most of these jobs are ‘disguised’ and low-remunerated. Even in informal sector, their work is insecure, irregular and often unrecognized. Hence, this type of work is also not recognized in official statistics conducted by the Government of India. Further, the remuneration and position given to women is usually low even when they have sufficient skills to perform higher level jobs. Many researchers observed that there is wage discrimination among female workers as compared to male ones (Jose 1988)1. In spite of high GDP and high employment growth, trend rate of decline in poverty has been relatively low, at 0.8 per cent per annum. between 1993-94 and 2004-05 Papola (2008)2. Obviously growth has not benefited the poor, nor has new employment gone to them. The Approach Paper to the Eleventh Plan (2007-2012), therefore, calls for more ‘inclusive’ growth and envisages employment as a central element of such growth. Productive and gainful employment with decent working condition is viewed as a crucial strategy for “inclusive growth” (Planning Commission 2008)3

In the present study, we will attempt to explore the changing trends and sector-wise contribution of female employment during post reform period 1993-94 to 2009-10.The present paper is organised into three sections. Section I deals with the concepts, definitions, data and methodology used in the present paper. Section II presents the trends and changing scenario of all India population, labour forces and work forces at all India by gender and rural &urban location. Section III includes the sector-wise structure of female employment, distribution of work force by activity status and projection of employment ,in post- reform period 1993-94 into 2009-10. This section also deals with the wage discrimination among female workers. Section IV concludes and summarizes the paper.

* Sh. B. S. Kambo is Former-Deputy Director, DGE&T, Ministry of Labour and Employment, New Delhi. At present,Deputy director on Contract, in the Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India working in a Project “Annual Health Survey” , New Delhi. Email: [email protected] ** Dr.Kulwinder Kaur is an Assistant Professor at Hindu College, University of Delhi

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

962

Section I 2. Concepts and definitions adopted in various important data sources: One of the serious problems in this field is the use of different concepts and definitions of employment unemployment in different sources such as NSSO and census and in the same source also, it has changed over time. This makes the comparison of data from various sources quite difficult and meaningless. However, efforts have been made by various sources to standardize the definitions particularly NSS to ensure comparability of data over time. Labour Force (LF): Labour force constitutes all the persons who are either working (or employed) or seeking or available for work (or unemployed). Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR): Labour Force Participation Rate is a measure of the proportion of the country’s population that is engaged actively in the labour market, either by working or seeking work. It provides an indication of the size of the supply of labour available to engage in the production of goods and services. Work Participation Rate (WPR): Work Participation Rate is a measure of the proportion of the country’s labour force who is engaged in work. It provides information on the ability of the economy to generate employment. Unemployment Rate (UR): Unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force that does not have employment and is actively looking for work. The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), obtained by dividing the number of persons in the labour force by total population, is an important parameter in employment projections and formulation of employment strategies. The crucial issue, however, is the basis, or the decision rule, on which a person is classified as belonging to the labour force. There are four different concepts used in India in this regard. These are: Usual Principal Status (UPS) : It indicates a status in terms of major time (More than or equal to 180 days ) over the 365 days before the date of interview : Current Weekly Status (CWS), Here the reference period of 7 days preceding the interview Current Daily Status (CDS): it reflect labour time deposition during each day in terms of two half days. Usual Principal and Subsidiary Status (UPSS): For each UPS status person (employed, unemployed, out of labour forces) a subsidiary status is also recorded. Subsidiary status indicates the status in terms of 30 days before the date of interview. There is no agreement among analysts on which of these measure provides a more accurate insight into the employment and unemployment.

3. Sources of data on employment and unemployment: The major source of information on employment and unemployment has been the Sample Surveys conducted periodically by the Department of Statistics (National Sample Survey Organisation ( NSSO). Besides this, there are other sources such as the decennial Population Census, Employment Exchange Register, Employment Market Information Programme, Employment and Unemployment Survey conducted by Labour Bureau and Economic Census by Central Statistical Organization. NSSO conducts, quinquennial thick (large) sample surveys as also annual thin surveys. The results of thin sample surveys have to be examined with care as to their statistical significance. 4. Methodology: NSSO report4 515 Part I point out “Population estimates from the NSSO surveys are, in general, on the lower side. This difference arises mainly due to the differences in coverage and methods adopted in NSS in comparison with the census operation. However, the ratios obtained from the survey are expected to be robust. This is why the estimates on employment- unemployment are presented as ratios in NSSO reports. To estimate an absolute number in any category, it is advisable to apply the survey estimates of ratios to the census population or projections thereof, for that category”. Earlier researchers have estimated labour force and work forces for 2004-05 on the basis projected population as on1.1.2005 since population census data was not available at that time. The estimates of labour and work force (Table S1.1) for 66th round5 are also based on projected population as on 1.1.2010 .Paper 1 of

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

963

census6 2011 shows that figure for population projection and provisional population as per census 2011 at all India levels differ only by 1.48 per cent but at state level the variation is much more. For example, for ten state (Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan Uttarakhand and Assam), the figures are within (+/-) 2 per cent of projected population. For 11 states namely NCT of Delhi, Kerala, West Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Jammu and Kashmir, the variation is outside (+/-) 2 per cent (in 000) .The variation ranges from( - ) 9.20 per cent in the NCT of Delhi to 7.09 per cent in case of Jammu and Kashmir. The variation ranges from – 11.92 per cent (Nagaland) to 13.09 per cent (Meghalaya) for 7 North Eastern states (excluding Assam). It has been observed that the States/UTs (namely Chandigarh, Andaman and Nicobar island, Goa, Lakshadweep, Puducherry, Daman & Diu and Dadra & Nagar Haveli), the provisional population is short of respective projected population ranging from - 27 per cent to -3 per cent. Thus, there is a variation between projected and provisional population total at state level. Therefore, it is felt to estimate labour force and work forces on the basis of real population instead of projected population. The rural urban and gender wise distribution of population for 2001 and 2011 was collected from 7,8 The state wise estimate of population total by gender and location for 2004-05 and 2009-10 have been made by inter-censual interpolation of 2001-2011 population census. Thus, we have built up the population estimates for 2004-05 and 2009-10 (mid-survey period as on 1st January) by gender and location at states / UTs. The Labour forces participation rate, worker-population ratios based on Usual Principal and Subsidiary Status (UPSS)) were collected for four different categories, namely, rural male, rural female, urban male and urban female across states from the NSSO reports 515 part (2004-05) and NSSO K 1 Key indicator of employment and unemployment report (2009-10) .We have also used the secondary data published in research papers. We have applied these ratios to the estimated interpolated population figures for year 2004-05 and 2009-10 and obtained aggregate estimates of labour force and workforce at disaggregate level viz. States, location and gender. The employment projections were made by using the technique suggested by Rangarajan C9. Section II

Table I All India Population by Gender and Rural Urban Location 1993-94 to 2009-10

(in 000)

Population Segment

1993-94*

1999-2000*

2004-05** 2009-10** Compound annual growth rate

1.1.994 1.1.2000 1.1.2005 1.1.2010 1999-2000 over

1993-94

2004-05 over 1999-2000

2009-10 over

2004-05

2009-10 over

1993-94

Rural

Males 339642 374432 399024 422367 1.64 1.28 1.14 1.37

Females 319411 353785 377639 399910 1.72 1.31 1.15 1.41

Persons 659053 728217 776663 822277 1.68 1.30 1.15 1.39

Urban

Males 124031 145878 166497 189878 2.74 2.68 2.66 2.70

Females 111104 131244 151531 175236 2.82 2.92 2.95 2.89

Persons 235135 277122 318028 365114 2.78 2.79 2.80 2.79

Total

Males 463673 520310 565521 612245 1.94 1.68 1.60 1.75

Females 430515 485029 529170 575146 2.01 1.76 1.68 1.83

Persons 894188 1005339 1094691 1187391 1.97 1.72 1.64 1.79 Note: *As reported in Table 1 Working paper No. 155 Employment and Poverty in India :2000-2005 Sundaram .K ** Segment wise population are based on inter-censuses interpolation of 2001-2011population.

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

964

5. Growth of population: India is passing through an extraordinary phase of demographic changes. Although the overall growth rate of population has been decelerating from 1.97 per cent per annum to 1.72 per cent per annum during the period from 1993-94 to 2004-05 (Table1) and it has further decelerated to 1.64 per cent per annum from 2004-05 to 2009-10. Nevertheless, India’s population has grown close to 92.7 million during 2004-05 to 2009-10. The census projection report10 indicates that the proportion of population in the working age group15-59 years is likely to increase approximately 58 per cent in 2001 to 64 per cent in 2021.In absolute terms, there will be approximately 63.5 million new entrants to the working age 15-59 years between 2001 to 2016.The bulk of this increase is likely to take place in the relatively younger age group 20-35 years this trend would make India as one of the youngest nations in the world. This ongoing changes are likely to contribute to an ever increase to the size of labour forces in the country.

Chart I

6. Labour Force: The latest and eighth quinquennial NSSO 66th round survey , showed that there has been a notable changes in the labour forces , work forces and employment trend in India during the period 2004-05 to 2009-10. During the year 1993-94, labour forces was estimated to be 381.6 million in 1993-94 which increased to 407.4 million in 1999-2000 and further increases to 470.72 and 474.96 millions in 2004-05 and 2009-10 respectively, implying thereby that only 4.24 million labour forces have been added during 2004-05 to 2009-10 (Table 2).

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05 2009-10

i

n

m

i

l

l

i

o

n

s

Year

Labour force by gender & location

Rural male

Rural female

Urban male

Urban female

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

965

Table 2

All India labour forces ( in million) by Gender and Rural Urban Location 1993-94 to 2009-10

UPSS

Population Segment

1993-94*

1999-2000*

2004-05**

2009-10 **

2009-10***

Compound Annual Growth Rate

1.1.994 1.1.2000 1.1.2005 1.1.2010 1.1.2010 1999-2000 over 1993-

94

2004-2005 over 1999-2000

2009-10

over 2004-

05

2009-10

over 1993-

94

Rural

Males 190.54 202.19 222.23 236.04 235.70 0.99 1.91 1.21 1.35

Females 105.41 106.84 126.19 106.52 106.20 0.23 3.38 -3.33 0.07

Persons 295.94 309.04 348.42 342.56 341.90 0.72 2.43 -0.34 0.92

Urban

Males 67.35 79.07 95.23 106.69 102.70 2.71 3.79 2.30 2.92

Females 18.33 19.29 27.07 25.72 24.20 0.85 7.01 -1.02 2.14

Persons 85.68 98.36 122.30 132.40 126.90 2.33 4.45 1.60 2.76

Total

Males 257.89 281.26 317.46 342.72 338.40 1.46 2.45 1.54 1.79

Females 123.74 126.14 153.26 132.23 130.40 0.32 3.97 -2.91 0.42

Persons 381.63 407.40 470.72 474.96 468.80 1.10 2.93 0.18 1.38

Note : *As reported in Table 4 Working paper No. 155 Employment and Poverty in India :2000-2005 Sundaram . K

** The estimates of employment are based on NSS data combined with census data. The NSS gives the Labour force participation rate( LFPR) for four categories: Rural Male(RM), Rural female(RF), Urban male(UM), Urban

female(UF) separately. We obtained estimates of total Labour force in each year by applying LFPR to the total population of each category ( RM,RF,UM and UF) obtained from interpolation for census year.

*** population projection based as per 66th round report

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

966

The labour forces compound annual growth rate accelerated from 1.10 per cent to 2.93

per cent, which is an all time high during the period 1993-94 to 2004-05 .This increase is unique in the sense that not only has the labour force growth rate out lined the population growth rate 1.72 per cent but is also exceeded it by 1.7 times . An increase in the labour forces was seen across all segments (Table 2) with most important being seen in case of women. The annual growth rate of women labour force has increased from 0.23 per cent to 3.38 per cent in rural area during a period from 1999-2000 to 2004-05 and the corresponding growth rate in the urban area was 0.85 per cent to 7.01 per cent. In general ,per cent of women in the labour forces has been typically low .Only 36 per cent of women in rural area and 22 per cent of women in the urban area participate in the labour market during the period from 1993-94 to 2004-05. But trend has reversed during the period 2004-05 to 2009-10.The labour forces participation rate fell to 40 per cent in 2009-10 from 43 per cent in 2004-05 on UPSS basis and in case of female it fell to 23.3 per cent from 29.4 per cent ,this decline appeared to very significant . The declines in the LFPR brought down the growth rate of labour force to 0.18 per cent in 2009-10 from 2.93 per cent in 2004-05 but in case of female decline is very rapid from 3.97 per cent to (-) 2.91 per cent. The decline in the labour force growth rate has a positive feature. It will mean, a reduction in the new employment opportunity required to be created. In, parts, the decline in population growth rate which fell from 1.72 per cent to 1.64 per cent during the period 2004-05 to 2009-10. But deceleration in the growth rate of labour force is very much steeper than that of population.

India’s labour market is influenced by a variety factors such as full & part time workers,

deviation in the availability of work during the different seasons of a year, engagement of workers in multiple jobs, willingness of workers to work at low wages, social, cultural and demographic factors restricting large number of women to participate in labour market .There are two factors which are responsible for the drop of the LFPR, that is, demographic and structural and cyclical factors. Different age groups have different LFPRs. People younger than 25 or older than 60, especially, are much less likely to participate in the labour market than the rest of the population. As the age distribution of the population changes, the total LFPR also changes, even if the within-group LFPR remains unchanged. Secondly, when job opportunities become scarce due to recent (2007-09) global financial meltdown and related economic recession, two things happen. New entrants in the labour market (recent graduates, for example) put off their job search. Also, former unemployed persons stop looking for work. In both cases, they are excluded from the ranks of the “active population,” depressing the LFPR. However, the recent drop in the LFPR is relevant in present context because it will affect the future path of the unemployment rate. If the LFPR has fallen so much over the last five years because of demographic factors, we should expect the LFPR to continue declining at about the same rate, without affecting much the unemployment rate. If the crash of the LFPR is due to structural/cyclical factors, many of those who are currently out of the labour force may come back to the job market at some point, raising the LFPR. This phenomenon will also keep the unemployment rate elevated even if the economy is creating jobs, as those who were formerly out of the labour force join the ranks of the unemployed. In other words, a low LFPR may be hiding a large “shadow army” of labour, waiting to join the labour force. In reality, a combination of demographic and cyclical/structural factors is at work. As per 66th round, for the age group 15-59 years, LFPR at the all-India level was nearly 60 per cent in UPSS: 85 per cent for rural male, 40 per cent for rural female, 81 per cent for urban male and 21 per cent for urban female.

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

967

Table 3 All India work force ( in million) by Gender and Rural Urban Location 1993-94 to 2009-10

UPSS

Population Segment

1993-94*

1999-2000*

2004-05**

2009-10**

2009-10***

Compound Annual Growth Rate

1.1.994 1.1.2000

1.1.2005

1.1.2010

1.1.2010

1999-2000 over

1993-94

2004-2005 over 1999-

2000

2009-10 over

2004-5

2009-10 over

1993-94

Rural

Males 185.11 200.32 218.75 232.41 231.90 1.33 1.78 1.22 1.43

Females 101.89 105.07 123.99 105.00 104.50 0.51 3.37 (-)3.27 0.19

Persons 287.00 305.40 342.74 337.41 336.40 1.04 2.33 (-)0.31 1.02

Urban

Males 64.12 77.02 91.78 103.72 99.80 3.10 3.57 2.48 3.05

Females 16.56 18.37 25.26 24.33 22.80 1.75 6.57 (-)0.75 2.43

Persons 80.68 95.40 117.03 128.05 122.60 2.83 4.17 1.81 2.93

Total

Males 249.23 277.35 310.53 336.13 331.70 1.80 2.29 1.60 1.89

Females 118.45 123.45 149.24 129.33 127.30 0.69 3.87 (-)2.82 0.55

Persons 367.68 400.79 459.77 465.46 459.00 1.45 2.78 0.25 1.48

Note : *As reported in Table 4 Working paper No. 155 Employment and Poverty in India :2000-2005 Sundaram K

** The estimates of employment are based on NSS data combined with census data. The NSS gives the work population ratio( WPR) for four categories: Rural Male(RM), Rural female(RF) Urban male(UM), Urban female(UF) separately. We obtained estimates of total Work force in each year by applying WPR to the total population of each category ( RM,RF,UM and UF) obtained from interpolation for census year. *** population projection based as per 66th round report

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

968

Chart II

7. Growth of Employment: Our estimates of work force in 2004-05 based on real population was of order of 459.77 million and the corresponding estimates provided by Planning Commission as reported in paper (2007) 9 was 457.82 million. and by Sundaram K10 was 457.90 million. But, according to the Annual Report12 to the People on Employment (1st July 2010), the estimated work force for 2004-05 was the order of 459 million (estimates9,10,11 were based on projected population). The estimates of work force for the year 2009-10 based on real population were of the order of 465.46 million. What has attracted much attention in the recent discussions is the fact that the rate of growth of work force declined continuously from one quinquennial to another except for the period 1987-88 to 1993-94 and 1999-2000 to 2004-05. But decline was very sharp in 2009-10 as compared to 2004-05. It has declined from 2.78 per cent per year in the period 2004-05 to 0.25 per cent in 2009-10 (Chart II). Thus, there is distinct downward swing (eleven time fall in the work force growth rate) in span of five years from 2004-05 to 2009-10, with only 5.69 million jobs having been added during this period.

In rural area, it has come down from 2.33 to (-) 0.31 per cent per cent and corresponding rate of growth in the urban areas also fell very sharply from 4.17 per cent to 1.81 per cent during a span of five year from 2004-05 to 2009-10 .But in case of female workers, it has come down from 3.87 per cent per year to ( -) 2.82 per cent (Table 3 chart II). For rural female, it has declined to (–)3.27 per cent in 2009-10 from 3.37 per cent in 2004-05 and for urban female there is a rapid deceleration in the rate of growth of employment as it went down to( -) 0.75 per cent per annum in 2009-10 from 6.57 per cent per annum in 2004-05.

This put a question mark where the female workers have gone? This rapid deceleration in employment growth must be carefully interpreted. It has to be looked in the context of the fact that the rate of growth of female labour force has also fallen from 3.97 per cent to - 2.91per cent during the period 2004-05 to 2009-10. (Table 2).Thus rate of growth of female employment is less than that of female labour force implying thereby that less work

2.73

2.17

1.54

2.43

1.45

2.78

0.25 y = -0.0308x4 + 0.41x3 - 1.71x2 + 2.2513x + 1.7786

R² = 0.7233 0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1972-73 to 1977-78

1977-88 to 1983

1983 to 1987-88

1987-88 to 1993-94

1993- 94 to 1999-2000

1999-2000 to 2004-05

2004-05 to 2009-10

G

r

o

w

t

h

r

a

t

e

Year

Growth rate of employment (UPSS) (% per annum)

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

969

Chart III

opportunity were created for female during this period .The rate of growth female population, female labour force, female work force and GDP per annum over a long period (1993-94 to 2009-10) was 1.83 per cent, 0.42 per cent, 0.55 per cent and 7% per cent respectively. This shows that over a long period of time the growth rate of female work force is more than that of female Labour force but much behind the GDP. NSS 55th round ( 1993-94 to 1999-2000), had also shown a deceleration in the growth rate of employment from 2 per cent per annum in a period 1983 to 1993-94 to 1.45 per annum in a period 1993-94 to 1999-2000 (Economist Sundaram K)10. Growth of employment is less than one per cent during this period as per Rangarajan .C 2007)9.

In spite of moderate growth of GDP, job growth had declined .Obviously growth has neither benefited the poor, nor has new employment gone to them. The results led to a major concern of “Job poor growth”. Some scholars put forth the arguments that factor such as more people in the younger age group staying back in school or colleges longer for higher education, thereby delaying their entry into the labour forces. The other plausible explanation, as the income and females education improves, families pull females out of the work force for status reasons. Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar in his article (3rd July 2011)13 “Where are all the women workers” reported that rising higher education is not a new trend. It has been there for decades; yet rural female participation remained around 33 per cent from 1983 till 2004-05, and has only now crashed to 26.1 per cent. Rising higher education is more marked for males, yet their works participation has not fallen. So, this factor cannot fully explain the withdrawal of 35 million females (in fact withdrawal is 19.91 million) from the workforce. But it is a fact that the number of young people in education, and therefore out of the workforce, has increased

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05 2009-10

i

n

m

i

l

l

i

o

n

s

Year

Work force by gender & location

Rural male

Rural female

Urban male

Urban female

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

970

dramatically causing a drop in the labour participation rate The total number of young working‐age (15‐24) people who continued in educational institutions doubled from about 30

million in 2004‐05 to over 60 milliona in 2009‐10.Women generally have higher Unemployment

Rate (UR) and especially of under-employment and disguised unemployment than men and find it harder to re-enter employment once they lose their jobs. The result of as 66th round confirms this phenomena. In CDS, gender differentials in UR was observed in both rural and urban areas, with URs in females in both the rural and urban areas were higher than those of males: rural female UR was 8 per cent compared to 6 per cent for rural male and urban female UR was 9 per cent compared to 5 per cent for urban males. The working age is defined as 15-60 years, but as demand for higher education rises, the proportion of students aged 15-25 rises. According to Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar13 “This aids skill creation, but reduces worker participation, and so offsets the demographic dividend created by falling fertility. Some researchers are of the opinion that due to economic slowdown, the growth rate of employment has dipped. A detailed study14 conducted by V.V. Giri National Labour Institute (VVGNLI, 2009) for Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, indicated that most of the job losses during the economic slowdown had taken place in unorganised sector. In the organised sector, the job loss was minimal as indicated by the Labour Bureau study. Moreover, there was also considerable wage loss, more so in the organised sector. On the basis of surveys15 of approximately 1,300 firms across three export intensive sectors viz. textiles, diamond cutting and polishing, and handicrafts, the study estimated that there was job loss in unorganised sector to the extent of approximately 6 per cent. Although magnitude of job loss in the organised sector was small to the extent of 0.3 per cent, wage loss in the organised sector was significant. In unorganised sector, the job cuts were compensated with increased working hours of the retained workers and hence wages were increased, particularly, in textiles and handicraft sectors. Although the study is export sector specific and the results cannot be generalised for the entire Indian economy, the assessment for the country as a whole based on secondary data indicated that approximately 7 to 8 million potential jobs could not be created because of economic slowdown and resultant slowdown in the India’s economic growth from 9 per cent in 2007-08 to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 (Annual Report to people on employment12 ( 2010) . By any standard, the impact of economic slowdown on Indian labour market cannot be undermined as the same has potential to negatively impact the employment growth in future. Further research, may throw other reasons for female withdrawal. Thus the major concern is that we need a changed attitude to promote work force with special attention to female workers. More females’ college skilled graduate will also help. Finally, not least we need less gender discrimination and better work conditions for women. _____________________________________________________________________ a) The draft approach to the Twelfth Five Year Plan revealed that in the age group of 5–14

years, 89.3 percent of children were in school in 2009‐10, up from 82.4 percent in 2004‐ 05.

Further this increase was higher for girls, rising from 79.6 percent in 2004‐05 to 87.7 percent in 2009‐10. In the 15–19 years age group, 59.5 percent of young people were in the educational

system in 2009‐10 as compared to 46.2 percent in 2004‐05. Once again, the increase was more for girls, from 40.3 to 54.6 percent. In the next higher age group of 20–24 years, 22.5 percent of

boys and 12.8 percent of girls were still in the educational system in 2009‐10 against only 14.9 and 7.6 percent respectively in 2004‐05

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

971

Section III 8. Structure of employment in industry: Table 4 presents changes at the aggregate level across various industrial sectors/ sub sectors as it could reveal important insights into the processes that are underway. Table 4 shows that there has been a sharp decline in the share of agriculture and allied activities in female employment from 72.42 per cent to 68.09 per cent between 61st round and 66th NSS round yet it account for about 68 per cent of the total female workforce in the country. In absolute figures, the workforce has shrink to 88.16 million in 2009-10 from 108.08 million in 2004-05 registering annual rate of deceleration of (-) 3.99 per cent per annum, resulting withdrawal of 19.91 million female work force. This decline per se is not only desirable but is essential to reduce the present underemployment in agriculture and a steady improvement in real wages in this sector as according to Ahluwalia Montek S16 “A key challenge in the Twelfth Plan is how to ensure creation of a sufficient number of productive jobs in the non-agricultural sector to absorb the expected increase in the labour force and also absorb surplus labour that must be shifted out of agriculture. The need to shift labour out of agriculture follows from the fact that productivity in agriculture is relatively low and if agriculture is not expected to grow at more than 4 per cent, the only way labour productivity in agriculture can raise at a rate higher than 4 per cent is for employment in agriculture to shrink.”

The share of female work force in industrial sector has increased to 16.48 per cent in 2009-10 from 13.87 per cent in 2004-05, registering annual acceleration of 0.58 per cent per annum in a span of five years. Despite of the fact that growth rate of employment in manufacturing has decelerated to -3.97 per cent per annum in 2009-10 from 6.85 per cent per annum in 2004-05 but still manufacturing alone account 52 per cent of the total workforce in the secondary sector. The rate of growth of female employment in the electricity, gas and water supply has significantly increased to 17.60 per cent in 2009-10 from 3.87 per cent per annum in 2004-05. The rate of growth of construction sector has jumped to 18.57 per cent in 2009-10 from 6.60 per cent per annum in 2004-05. The share of female employment in construction sector has increased 3.2 percentage points during the span of five years and accounts for 31 per cent of total work in industrial sector.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Agriculture,forestry & fishing Industrial Sector Service Sector

Share of female work force by broad industry group

1993-94

1999-2000

2004-05

2009-10

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

972

Table 4:

Distribution of female workers across various industrial categories- UPSS Total

S.No Industrial Category 1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05 2009-10 Compound Annual

Growth Rate

Total

(Million)

Percent

Share

Total

(Million)

Percent

Share

Total

(Million)

Percent

Share

Total

(Million)

Percent

Share

1999-

2000

over

1993-

94

2004-

05

over

1999-

2000

2009-

2010

over

2004-

05 1 Agriculture, forestry &

fishing 91.73 77.44 92.44 74.88 108.08 72.42 88.16 68.09 0.13 3.18 -3.99

2 Mining & quarrying 0.51 0.43 0.40 0.32 0.42 0.28 0.39 0.30 -3.97 0.98 -1.47 3 Manufacturing 11.74 9.91 12.51 10.13 17.42 11.67 14.22 11.00 1.06 6.85 -3.97 4 Elect. gas & water supply 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.09 0.07 -3.65 0.00 17.61

5 Construction 1.60 1.35 2.05 1.66 2.82 1.89 6.61 5.11 4.22 6.60 18.57

Industrial Sector 13.89 11.73 14.99 12.14 20.70 13.87 21.31 16.48 1.27 6.67 0.58 6 Trade, hotels & restaurant 3.83 3.23 5.31 4.3 6.13 4.11 5.58 4.38 5.61 2.91 -1.87

7 Transport , storage and

Communications 0.32 0.27 0.44 0.36 0.60 0.40 0.52 0.41 5.45 6.40 -2.82

8 Financing,insurance,real

estate & business services 0.44 0.37 0.48 0.39 0.91 0.61 2.76 2.14 1.46 13.65 24.84

9 Community, social &

personnel Services 8.24 6.96 9.79 7.93 12.82 8.59 10.99 8.50 2.91 5.54 -3.03

Service Sector 12.83 10.83 16.02 12.98 20.46 13.71 19.85 15.43 3.78 5.01 -0.60

10 Total Employment 118.45 100.00 123.45 100.00 149.24 100.00 129.33 100.00 0.69 3.87 -2.82

Source: NSSO Employment and unemployment Data, Various rounds

The share of work force in service sector has marginally increased to 15.43 per cent in 2009-10 from 13.71 per cent in 2004-05 but total female work force remained around 20 million during the span of five years. The share of work force in community, social & personal services remained around 8.50 per cent during a span of five years from 2004-05 to 2009-10. In absolute figures, the work force has declined marginally to 10.99 million in 2009-10 from 12.82 million in 2004-05 registering annual deceleration of - 3.03 per cent yet it absorbs 55 per cent of total

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

973

female work force in service sector. The share of employment in Financing, insurance, real estate & business service, as expected, has increased to 2.14 per cent in 2009-10 from 0.61 per cent in 2004-05. In absolute figures, the workforce has increased to 2.76 million in 2009-10 from 0.91 million in 2004-05. Thus there is an incremental of 1.83 million work force in this sector, registering highest rate of growth as 24.84 per cent per annum .The share of Trade, Hotels & Restaurant in employment remained almost same (4.11 per cent in 2004-05 and 4.38 per cent in 2009-10) but the rate of growth of employment had declined to -1.87 per cent per annum in 2009-10 from 2.91 per cent in 2004-05.

Indian economy is back on the road to recovery as reflected by rising manufacturing and overall economic growth to 8.6 per cent in 2010-11.Special programmes for re-skilling and redeployment of retrenched workers during the slowdown period are highly desirable. “A large part of the job opportunities we need must come from a more rapid expansion in manufacturing. The industrial sector was targeted to grow at an average rate 10 per cent to 11 per cent per year in the Eleventh Plan, but the actual achievement is unlikely to exceed 8 per cent. Most economic simulations suggest that if the economy is to grow at 9 per cent in the Twelfth Plan, and agriculture, which now accounts for only 15 per cent of GDP, is constrained to grow at 4 per cent, then services should grow at around 10 per cent and industry at 11 per cent. Industry must not only grow faster than it has thus far, it must also be more able to absorb labour with relatively simple skills of the type which migrants from rural areas can acquire. Expansion of industrial activity must also be regionally balanced since demographic projections suggest that the growth of labour supply in future will be much greater in the northern states that are industrially backward at present. Migration will take care of some of the regional mismatch but there is a strong case for doing more to ensure that employment opportunities expand in states that are expected to generate larger growth of labour. This is best achieved by state governments paying much greater attention to the infrastructure needs and skilled labour requirements of industry that could locate in those states. Adequate availability of power and good connectivity are crucial.” Ahluwalia Montek S16 (2011) 9. Employment status of female workers: It has been generally expected that with shift of workers from agriculture to non-agricultural activities and from footloose to enterprise based employment, there will be an increase in the proportion of workers employed on a regular wage and salary basis. The NSS 66th round survey, throws interesting features when we look at the activity status distribution of work force (Table 5). In the self-employment category, the previous trend of incline has now been reversed. Cutting across the rural urban divide, the share of self-employed female workers has decreased to 53.20 per cent in 2009-10 from 61.00 per cent in 2004-05, resultantly a reduction of 8.8 percentage points. The share of regular wage-salaried workers has, however, stagnated at around 9 per cent while that of casual workers has increased from 30.0 per cent to 32.80 per cent. The increase in percentage of casual worker in rural area (7.30 per cent) is more that of urban area 2.90 per cent. The recent increase in casual employment has taken place mainly at the cost of self employed workers, with the proportion of the latter declining from 63.70 per cent to 55.70 per cent among rural female between 2004-05 and 2009-10 respectively. Self employed do not operate in the labour market for wages or earnings, but earn profits out of their own enterprises. A small proportion of these is exclusively employers, while a large section of them works as owners/employers cum workers. Further, an overwhelming proportion of these self-employed workers are small and petty traders and small and marginal farmers, and many a times, their earning levels are as low as those of casual workers. This situation has generally been interpreted to mean an increasing “casualisation” of workforce. In so far as the term describes an increase in the share of casual workers, it is factually true. But if it is meant to imply a process of self employed workers turning “casual”, or a decline in employment and earning, the trend needs to be carefully analyzed. The phenomenon of casualisation, needs to be seen in the overall perspective of employment trends in the economy. As we have observed that agriculture is increasingly unable to productively absorb the growing rural labour force. At the same time, there has been some growth of non-

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

974

agricultural activities in rural areas in construction trade, services which have generally offered better earnings than agriculture. Though, majority of these employment opportunities have been of temporary and casual nature, they add incomes of the rural households. On the other hand, regular jobs have hardly increased in the rural areas. Most new jobs have been in the casual category. Increasing proportion of casual workers in the total employment is thus mostly a result of structural changes taking place in the rural areas. To some degree, it is distress-driven, the small and marginal landholders and the landless not finding gainful work in agriculture and taking up whatever work they find in the nonagricultural activities, irrespective of earnings from them. This has been possible partly on account of various central sponsored employment scheme such as Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Scheme (MGNREGA), Swarnjayanti Gram Swarojgar Yojana (SGSY ), Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), Bharat Nirman, Total Sanitation Campaign, National Rural Health Mission and partly because of an increase in the demand for labour in expanding construction, trade and service activities in rural areas. Table 5: Percentage Distribution of Employment by Status (UPSS)

S. No.

Employment Status and Year

Rural Urban Total

Male Female Male Female Male Female

1

Self-Employeda

1993-1994 57.70 58.60 41.70 45.80 52.90 56.70

1999-2000 55.00 57.30 41.50 45.30 52.80 55.60

2004-2005 58.10 63.70 44.80 47.70 54.21 61.00

2009-2010 53.50 55.70 41.10 49.90 49.90 53.20

2

Regular employeesb

1993-1994 8.50 2.70 42.00 28.40 17.00 6.30

1999-2000 8.80 3.10 41.70 33.30 14.00 7.30

2004-2005 9.00 3.70 40.60 35.60 18.25 9.00

2009-2010 8.50 4.40 41.90 39.30 18.20 10.40

3

Casual Labourc

1993-1994 33.80 38.70 16.30 25.80 30.10 37.00

1999-2000 36.20 39.60 16.80 21.40 33.20 37.10

2004-2005 32.90 32.60 14.60 16.70 27.54 30.00

2009-2010 38.00 39.90 17.00 19.60 31.90 36.40

Source: Various Rounds of NSSO Data _________________________________________________________________________ a )Self Employed: Persons who operate their own farm or non-farm enterprises or are engaged independently in a profession or trade on their own account or with one or a few partners are deemed to be self-employed. Self-employed persons are further categorized as follows: Own-account Workers: Those self-employed persons who operate their enterprises on their own account or with one or a few partners and who, during the reference period, by and large, run their enterprise without hiring any labour. Employers: Those self-employed persons who work on their own account or with one or a few partners and, who, by and large, run their enterprise by hiring labour. Helpers in household enterprises: Those self-employed persons (mostly family members) who are engaged in their household enterprises, working full or part time and who do not receive any regular salary or wages in return for the work performed. They do not run the household enterprise on their own but assist the related person living in the same household in running the household enterprise. b) Regular Salaried/Wage Employees are those who work in others’ farm or non-farm enterprises (both household and non household) and in turn receive salary or wage on a regular basis. This category includes not only persons getting time wage but also persons receiving piece wage or salary and paid apprentices, both full time and part-time.

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

975

c) Casual Wage Labour: A person who is casually engaged in others’ farm or non-farm enterprises (both household and non-household) and, who in return, receives wages according to the terms of the daily or periodic work contract.

The major area of concerns in future is to raise the proportion of regular wage paid employment, particularly in rural areas. Given the vast potential of education and health sectors expand in rural areas, regular employment in rural areas can be enhanced by providing relevant training to rural workers. Rural self-employed persons need to be encouraged to diversify the off-farm and non-farm activities so that their levels of earning could be improved. In urban areas, suitable policy measures are required to safeguard the interest of small and petty traders. 10. Wages and Earnings: Casual wage labourers are one of the most disadvantaged groups in the labour market. While their work contract is terminated and renewed on a daily basis,

Table 6: Average Daily Wage (in Rs) of Regular and Casual Workers (15-59), 2009-10 at

constant price 2004-05

Location/Activated status Code Male Female Index of Gender Bias in

wage payments

Regular Salaries

Rural (code 31.,71,72) 164.75 103.07 0.63

Urban( code 31.,71,72) 249.40 204.19 0.82

Casual

Rural ( labour engaged in works other than public works, code 51)

67.14 45.59 0.68

Urban ( labour engaged in works other than public works, 51)

87.23 50.74 0.58

Rural (engaged in public work other than MGNREG activity status code :41)*

65.02 56.94 0.88

Rural (engaged in MGNREG public works activity status code :42)

60.13 57.66 0.96

Source: NSS 66th round Table S 38.39,40 and 41 Note: Index of gender bias in wage payments has been calculated as the ratio of females wages to male wages . Smaller ratio implies high gender bias

poor working conditions and low wages push them below poverty line. In 2009-10, average casual wage for males varies between Rs 60.13 (engaged in MGNREG public works ) to Rs 67.14 (engaged in works other than public works), and females it lies between Rs. 45.59 (engaged in works other than public works) to Rs 57.66 (engaged in MGNREGA public respectively in rural areas and Rs. 87.23 and Rs. 50.74 respectively in urban areas.( Table 6)

On an average in 2009-10, casual workers received far less wages than those received by regular workers. In addition to low wages for casual workers, there is also gender bias in wage payments. It is important to note that the gender bias in casual wage payment for labours engaged in works other than public works is low in rural areas (0.68) than in urban areas (0.58). But it is low for the casual labour engaged in public works and smallest for casual workers engaged in MGNREG public works. However, the reason for low gender bias in wage payments in rural areas is highly suppressed wages both for male and female rural workers. The gender bias is also noticeable in case of urban regular workers.

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

976

66th round survey indicates the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) has significant positive impact on rural wages almost no gender bias for payment of wages. Therefore the basic raising the wage levels of casual workers both in agriculture and non-agriculture needs adequate policy attention. In this regard, stricter implementation of the Minimum Wages Act, 1948 and targeted employment generation programmes are important policy considerations.. Moreover, standardisation of minimum wages across various States through centrally fixed and periodically revised Statutory National Floor Minimum Wage may be an important policy initiative in this regard. 11. Projected Employment: It is worth mentioning that Indian economy was also affected along with the other economies of the world, during the economic slowdown during the period 2008-09. Since the economic growth was down to 6.7 percent per annum in 2008-09 as compared to 9.0 percent in 2007-08. Employment growth also decelerated significantly.The projections for later years are useful to understand the emerging scenario during the next five years for planning and formulating policy.The elasticity of employment is defined as the rate of change of employment with respect rate of change of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and measure the sensitivity of employment growth to GDP growth. The relationship is not simple and straightforward as factors other than GDP like wage rate, technology and improvement in infrastructure also impact employment growth rate. Notwithstanding these qualifications, the employment elasticity is commonly used to track sectoral potential for generating employment and in forecasting future growth in employment. In making forecasting researchers have recommended that the elasticity should be derived from longer period. The theoretical objection to this could be that, it does not give proper weight to the recent experience but advantage is that it enable us to check the consistency of earlier projections over a longer period . Accordingly we have estimated elasticity of employment with respect to gross value added in a period 1993-94 -2009-10.

Specifically, We estimate: Log employment = αt + β Log Value Added(GDP) +ε t ------------- (1)

αt refer to fixed effect and t year. As a dependent variable, we consider employment in Log term. We calculate elasticity with respect to value added by estimating regression line (1). The result of regression analysis is shown in the following table.

Analysis of variance Table Source of variation df SS MS F

Regression due to log value added 1 0.02577259 0.0257726 222.326

Residual 16 0.00185476 0.0001159

Total 17 0.02762735

df: degree of freedom, SS: Sum of square MS; Mean sum of square

The estimated regression line (1) is

Log employment = 1.011803354 + 0.255533966Log Value Added

The elasticity of employment with respect to value added was found to be 0.26 with 95 percent confidence interval (0.22 – 0.29) and is statistically Significant (t stat =14.9106, p < 0.0000000001). The employment has been projected on the basis of employment elasticity 0.26. The estimate of employment figure for 2009-10 as per NSSO 66th round is 465

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

977

million. Scenario- A, if the employment grows at 2.2 percent per annum; Scenario- B, if the employment grows at 2.1percent per annum and Scenario- C, if the employment grows at 2.4 percent per annum . One obvious question that arises is what rates of economic growth, in the country need to achieve employment in three Scenarios. The answer really lies in the magnitude of employment elasticity likely to prevail in future. The estimates indicates that 2.2 percent. 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent growth in employment is achievable with an economic growth rate of approximately 8.6 percent, 8.1 percent and 9.2 percent provided the average employment elasticity of 0.26 continues. If the employment elasticity fall to 0.22 ( Lower limit of 95 percent confidence of elasticity ) ,the required economic growth rate will be 10.0 percent, 9.5 percent, and 10.9 percent to achieve the employment growth rate under Scenario-A, Scenario-B, Scenario C respectively. Similarly, if employment elasticity geared to 0.29 (upper limit of 95 percent confidence of elasticity ), the required economic growth rate will be 7.6 percent, 7.2 percent, and 8.3 percent to achieve the employment growth rate under Scenario-A, Scenario-B, Scenario C respectively. Assuming an overall elasticity 0.26 , the projection showed that with annual growth rate of 8.6 percent in GDP and 40.9 percent LFPR , it will take up to 2016-17 to reach the point when work force equal labour force under scenario A ( table 7) .

Table 7: Projected employment in during 2009-10 to 2016-17

Population Characteristics

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

Percent Growth rate of GDP

needed

Total population( in million)**

1187 1206 1226 1246 1267 1288 1309 1330

LFPR(%) 41.2 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.0 40.9 40.9 40.9

Labour forces( in million)

489 496 504 512 519 527 535 544

Scenario A- Employment growth rate (2.2%) in million

465 476 487 497 509 520 532 544 8.6

Scenario B- Employment growth rate (2.1%) in million

465 475 485 495 506 517 527 539 8.1

Scenario C- Employment growth rate (2.4%) in million

465 477 487 497 507 518 529 540 9.2

** As on Ist Jan of each year and estimates are based on interpolation of 2001-2011 censuses under the assumption that population grows at rate of 1.64 per year as observed during decade 2001-2011 *Based on the Employment elasticity 0.26 with respect to GDP ,the underlying annual employment growth has been worked out to be 2.5 percent, 2.5 percent, 2.4 percent, 1.8 percent, 2.1 percent,2.2 percent for the years 2005-06, 2006-07,2007-08,2008-09,and 2009-10. This yield an average ( Geometric mean) annual growth rate of 2.24 percent for the period 2005 -06 to 2009-10. Projection of LFPR has been done on the basis of linear trends in LFPR observed between1993-94 and 2009-10.

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

978

Section IV

Conclusion: By analyzing the trend of post reform period, one can conclude that there have been remarkable changes in the labour forces, work forces and employment trends in India especially female workers. The major findings of the analysis have been shown below:-

The labour forces participation rate fell to 40 per cent in 2009-10 from 43 per cent in 2004-05 on usual UPSS basis and in case of female it fell sharply to 23.3 per cent from 29.4 per cent .The declines in the LFPR brought down the growth rate of labour force to 0.18 per cent in 2009-10 from 2.93 per cent in 2004-05 but in case of female, decline is very rapid from 3.87 per cent to (-) 2.93 per cent.

The growth of workforce has decelerated from 2.78 per cent per year in the period 2004-05 to 0.25 per cent in 2009-10.There is distinct downward swing (eleven time fall in the workforce growth rate ), with only 5.69 million jobs have been added in during this period. In case of female workforce, it has come down from 3.78 per cent per year to (-) 2.88 per cent. Cutting across the rural urban divide, the share of self employed workers has decreased from 56.4 per cent in 2004-05 to 50.6 per cent in 2009-10, resultantly, a reduction of 5.8 percentage point. The share of regular wage-salaried workers has, however, stagnated at around 16 per cent while that of casual workers has increased from 28.3 to 32.8 per cent. The gender bias in casual wage payment for labour engaged in works other than public work is low in rural areas (0.68) than in urban areas (0.58). But it is low for the casual labour engaged in public works and lowest for casual workers engaged in MGNREG public works.

The share of agriculture & allied activities in female employment has declined from 72.42 per cent to 68.09 per cent during the period 2004-05 to 2009-10. In absolute figures, the workforce has shrink to 88.26 million in 2009-10 from 108.08 million in 2004-05, registering annual rate of deceleration of (-) 3.99 per cent per annum, resulting withdrawal of 19.91 million work force.

The share of work force in industrial sector has increased to 16.48 per cent in 2009-10 from 13.87 per cent in 2004-05, registering annual acceleration of 0.58 per cent per annum. The rate of growth workforce in construction sector has jumped to 18.57 per cent in 2009-10 from 6.60 per cent in 2004-05.

The share of work force in service sector has marginally increased to 15.43 per cent in 2009-10 from 13.71 per cent in 2004-05 but total female workforce remained around 20 million during the span of five years. The share of Financing, insurance, real estate & business has increased to 2.40 per cent in 2009-10 from 0.61 per cent in 2004-05. The share of Trade, hotels and restaurants & communication remained almost same (4.11 per cent in 2004-04 to 4.38 per cent in 2009-10) but the rate of growth of employment had declined to (-) 1.87 per cent per annum in 2009-10 from 2.93 per cent in 2004-05.

The elasticity of employment with respect to value added was found to be 0.26 with 95 per cent confidence interval (0.22 – 0.29) and is statistically Significant (t stat =14.9106, p < 0.0000000001).

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

979

Assuming an overall elasticity 0.26, the projection showed that with annual growth rate of 8.6 per cent in GDP and 40.9 per cent LFPR ,it will take up to 2016-17 to reach the point when work force equal labour i.e there would be no unemployment. Following are the major areas of concern

a) Employment growth to be targeted at least at 2.2 per cent per annum compatible with the 8.6 per cent growth of economy;

b) Raise the proportion of regular wage paid employment, particularly in rural areas. Given the vast potential of education and health sectors to expand in rural areas, regular employment in rural areas can be enhanced by providing relevant training to rural workers. Rural self-employed persons need to be encouraged to diversify to off-farm and non-farm activities so that their levels of earning could be improved. In urban areas, suitable policy measures are required to safeguard the interest of small and petty traders;

c) We need a changed attitude to promote work force with special attention to female workers with less gender discrimination and improved work conditions for women. The newer avenues for workforce that have been identified have the potential to lead to gradual transformation in terms of acceptance of a typical and uncommon job profile, for example; night shift in IT office, BPOs, call centers, etc. changing perception and aspirations among parents / guardians for example; in fashions, entertainment and media related jobs, and conducive and accepting societal environs. These changes are at the moment limited to urbanized, metropolitan areas with little percolation in rural areas. The Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Schemes (MNREGS) programmes could be a forerunner of changes in the context, with assured government employment for those women who will demand work upto 100 days.

d) Raising the wage levels of casual workers both in agriculture and non-agriculture needs adequate policy attention. In this regard, stricter implementation of the Minimum Wages Act, 1948 and targeted employment generation programmes are important policy considerations.. Moreover, standardisation of minimum wages across various States through centrally fixed and periodically revised Statutory National Floor level Minimum Wage may be an important policy initiative in this regard;

e) There is urgent need of skill development in higher education as India ranked third in output of graduates after US and China but in terms of quality it still lagged behind .Focus on inclusion of youth, women and vulnerable groups with their specific needs of training;

f) Statutory provisions to provide social security and improved conditions of work and remuneration of contract workers at par with the regular employees;

g) Promote labour intensive and high employment elasticity sectors to achieve the quantitative employment growth target;

h) Focus on self-employed and casual workers for improving livelihood; i) Simplification and rationalisation of labour regulations and broadening the ambit of

labour reforms;

j) Collection and compilation of employment/unemployment data on annual basis regularly.

k) Target regions with concentration of vulnerable social groups such as ST, SC, minorities, women, illiterate and less skilled for active labour market policies.

Indian Labour Journal,October 2012 Vol 53 No. 10

Special Article

980

References

1. Jose A. V. (1988), Agricultural Wages in India, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 23 No. 6

2. Papola T.S. (2008), Employment Challenge and Strategies in India, ILO Asia-Pacific Working Paper Series, ILO Subregional Office for South Asia, New Delhi.

3. Planning Commission, (2008), Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-12, Government of India, New Delhi. National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) (2006),.

4. National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO)(2006),Employment and Unemployment Situation in India - 2004-2005, Round 61st, Report No. 515-I and II (61/10/&2), Ministry of Statistics. Programme Implementation, Government of India, New Delhi

5. National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) (24 June 2011), Key Indicators of Employment and Unemployment in India :2009-10, ,Report No K1(66/10), Round 66th, Ministry of Statistics. Programme Implementation, Government of India, New Delhi.

6. Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner (RGCC)(31.3.2011) Provisional Population Totals:Paper1:Census2011 Website http://censusindia.gov.on

7. Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner (RGCC) Rural urban distribution Population :Census 2001. Website http://censusindia.gov.on

8. Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner (RGCC)(15.7.2011) Provisional Population Totals:Paper 2 volume 1 of 2011, Rural urban distribution India Series 1:Census2011. Website http://censusindia.gov.on

9. Rangarajan C, Padma Iyer Kaul and Seema (2007), “Revisiting Employment and Growth”, Money and Finance, September.

10. Sundaram. K.Employment and poverty in India New Delhi , Centre for Development Economics. Delhi School of economics) working paper no 155

11. Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner (RGCC) (2006), Population Projections for India and States – 2001-2026, Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, National Commission on Population, Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, New Delhi.

12. Ministry of Labour and Employment, Government of India (1st july 2010), Annual Report to the People on Employment: , New Delhi.

13. Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar ( 3rd July. 2011) Where are all women workers, Times of India

14. V.V. Giri National Labour Institute (2009), Global Slowdown and Export Sector in India: Impact on Production, Export and Employment (with special reference to Textiles, Handicrafts and Diamond Sectors), Report of the Research Study commissioned by Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, New Delhi.

15. Labour Bureau, Five quarterly surveys conducted during October 2008 to December 2009 .Ministry of Labour and Employment, Government of India , Chandigarh

16. Montek S Ahluwalia (May,2011) Prospects and Policy Challenges in the Twelfth Plan, Economic & Political Weekly may 21, 2011 vol xvi no 21