What can the past teach us about

an uncertain future?

IHOPE

Integrated History and Future of People on Earth

Photo Courtesy Tom McGovern

Circumpolar

Network

The Southwest

The Urban Mind

Yucatan Maya

MayaSim

Australian Desert

Prespective

www.ihopenet.org

www.ihopenet.org

Goals of the IHOPE Project

• Map the integrated record of biophysical and human

history

• Understand the dynamics of the coupled human and Earth

system

• Increase options for the future by learning from the past

A Three-Fold Approach to Research

Design

• Historical ecology integrates the history of the Earth´s

biophysical system with the history of human life in all its

aspects.

• Environmental humanities draw humanities disciplines into

conversation with each other and with the natural and

social sciences.

• Future Studies incorporate complex adaptive systems

(CAS), an aggregate of several strands of investigation

now widely applied in the biological, physical, and social

sciences.

www.ihopenet.org

www.ihopenet.org

The past is a laboratory for understanding relationships

among drivers; knowledge of historic systems offers good

ideas and highlights those to avoid

Past human/environment histories permit modelling of future

regional scenarios

An Integrated Approach can Advance the Exploration of

Critical Issues:

• The Role of Biological AND Cultural Diversity in Food

Security

• Recyclable Ancient Architecture and Engineering

• Model Future Landscapes in the Laboratory of the Past

We are a Clever Species

• Need to give credit to the last 2.5 MYRS of careful human

experimentation with Earth’s environment.

• We must draw on the ingenuity and rich empirical history

of our species in what has always been a changing world.

Producing a (Pre-hi)Story Quantitative vs qualitative methods reading prehistoric land

use

Breadbasket regions forced to produce only grain

Many earlier advances were abandoned, increasing short-

term yields, erosion and the loss of soil fertility

Unpredicted climate around AD 270 devastated harvests

Imported species were particularly vulnerable

Burdened with excessive taxes and low harvests,

peasants abandoned farmland

Without maintenance, farmland reverted to scrub and

forest

Roman Farming In the entire past three millennia, Roman period industrial

farming practices were the most destructive

Little Ice Age (ca. 1300-1850 AD) conditions

gave early rise to communal farms in Burgundy

The communauté of Grand Dardon

ca. 1450-1847

Documents and architecture trace the growth of

the community

Community members held the land in common and elected

work managers from among their number; this form of

household economy was particularly effective in times of

environmental and economic crisis Crumley, C. & Marquardt, W. 1987. (eds) Regional Dynamics – Burgundian

Landscapes in Historical Perspective.

What happens when the seasonal rhythm

is broken? The variability of weather is likely to increase in the future.

Will ruins harvests, makes planning difficult.

Human societies respond effectively to weather extremes but

not to highly variable short term conditions.

Humans can be part of the solution by search the regional

history for place-specific managements ideas.

Some Broad Conclusions • Reliance on non-renewable resources is patently

unsustainable.

• Diversity plays a critical role in ensuring resilience to

systemic shocks.

• We have the tools to map risk and vulnerability and to

assess this information with regard to the future.

• The linked human/environment history of a region contains

information about how it responds to extremes in climate.

• This allows managers to anticipate changes in many

aspects of the region.

• All (pre)historic techniques are not sustainable, but their

longevity is witness to their efficacy.

www.ihopenet.org

Read more Chase, Arlen F., and Vernon L. Scarborough (eds.) 2013. The Resilience and

Vulnerability of Ancient Landscapes: Transforming Maya Archaeology through

IHOPE. Archaeological Papers of the American Anthropological Association, Wiley,

Hoboken, NY.

Costanza, Robert, et al. 2012. Developing an Integrated History and future of People

on Earth (IHOPE). Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4:106-114. DOI

10.1016/j.cosust.2012.01.010

Scarborough, Vernon L., et al. 2012. Low-Density Urbanism, Sustainability, and

IHOPE-Maya: Can the Past Provide More than History? UGEC Viewpoints 8:20-24.

Hibbard, K. A., R. et al 2010. Developing an Integrated History and Future of People

on Earth (IHOPE): Research Plan. IGBP Report No. 59. Stockholm: IGBP Secretariat.

Costanza, R., L. Graumlich, and W. Steffen, eds. 2007. Sustainability or Collapse: An

Integrated History and Future of People on Earth. 96th Dahlem

Workshop. Cambridge: MIT Press.