The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung: The Last Cold Warriors?Author(s): Akan Malici and Johnna MaliciSource: Political Psychology, Vol. 26, No. 3 (Jun., 2005), pp. 387-412Published by: International Society of Political PsychologyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3792603Accessed: 18/08/2010 09:43

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Political Psychology, Vol. 26, No. 3, 2005

The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim II

Sung: The Last Cold Warriors?

Akan Malici Arizona State University

Johnna Malici Arizona State University

Although the end of the Cold War brought the transformation of the communist bloc, some states have resisted the ensuing wave of democratization. This study assumes that impor- tant mechanisms of continuity and change in communist states are situated in the belief systems of their leaders and that the years between 1985 and 1991 were a catalytic period. What did Fidel Castro of Cuba and Kim II Sung of North Korea learn from the end of the Cold War? Their belief systems are examined prior to 1985 and after 1991, i.e., before and after the collapse of other communist regimes. If learning has occurred, it should be reflected in a comparison of their beliefs for these time periods. Our results from ANOVA analyses indicate that Fidel Castro engaged in some learning but Kim II Sung did not. This finding is complemented by the results of a MANOVA analysis, which indicate that the end of the Cold War had only a modest impact on Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung, independent of their specific personalities. We conclude by drawing attention to the ensuing debate between structural- and agent-level theorizing and by giving some suggestions for future research.

KEY WORDS: Cold War, change, learning, operational code, structural adaptation

The end of the Cold War brought with it the demise and transformation of the communist bloc led by the former Soviet Union. Indeed, after August of 1991 only a handful of communist states remained in the international system and even fewer maintained their confrontational relationship with the United States. Two such states, Cuba and North Korea, had depended heavily on support in the form of economic aid and political backing from the Soviet empire during the Cold

387 0162-895X ? 2005 International Society of Political Psychology

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War. With the breakdown of the Soviet Union, this support system quickly dried up: the economies of Cuba and North Korea declined significantly, and the leaders of these states became politically isolated. Despite these developments, why did Cuba and North Korea continue to walk on the communist path? Was it simply a Cold War artifact of geopolitics, due to Cuba's location next to the Yankee colos- sus and the presence of U.S. troops on the Korean peninsula?

The way the foregoing question is framed is admittedly somewhat of an exag- geration as it suggests rigid and strict continuity in Cuban and North Korean foreign policy behavior. To be sure, some change towards moderation and (selec- tive) opening did occur in both states. Yet, the magnitude of the events that led to the end of the Cold War, as well as the fundamentally changed nature of inter- national politics on both the structural and the dyadic levels, make the nature of these changes appear rather minor.

Structural approaches call our attention to incentives in the international envi- ronment for particular types of policies. It is posited that "governments respond in a rational manner to the reward and punishment contingencies of the interna- tional environment" (Tetlock, 1991, p. 24). The rational actor premises underly- ing structural approaches lead us to expect cooperative foreign policy behavior, or policies of accommodation in general when cooperation is indeed prudent. It is the very small degree of change in Cuban and North Korean foreign policy since the end of the Cold War-an event that had a very pronounced impact on these states-that leads us to question the validity of analyses that focus prima- rily on external conditions when explaining Cuban and North Korean foreign policy behavior. This suspicion is further strengthened given that an explanation of foreign policies of small states such as Cuba and North Korea should be an easy case for approaches that focus on the international environment as an explanans (Elman, 1995).1

Questioning the validity of structural explanations is, of course, not new to international relations scholarship. Scholars have convincingly argued that struc- tural explanations do not sufficiently explain the Soviet dissolution (Breslauer, 1987, 1992; Breslauer & Tetlock, 1991; Evangelista, 1991; Lebow, 1994). Instead, it is often argued that the "new thinking" policies were the result of changes made within the Soviet leadership, led by Mikhail Gorbachev, who has been described

In a comparison of great powers and small states, Rosenau (1966, pp. 4748), for example, argues that features of the international environment are more potent regarding a small state's foreign policy decisions. This assertion is underlined by Waltz's reasoning that small states are to be more attentive to external constraints because they "operate on narrow margins" (Waltz, 1979, p. 195). Similarly Jervis argues that since small states lack the resources of great powers, they also lack a "margin of time and error" in their responses to occurrences in the international environment. The international environment, therefore, dictates that leaders of small states be "closely attuned" to it (1978, pp. 172-173). In a strikingly similar fashion Jack Snyder (1992, pp. 317-318) argues that small states, as opposed to great powers, do not "enjoy a substantial buffer from the pressures of international competition." Small states are therefore "more exposed to the vagaries of international security and economic competition."

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The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung

as an "uncommitted thinker and motivated learner" (Stein, 1994). Reversing this logic, we offer a "learning" explanation of the Cuban and North Korean non- transitions (Deutsch, 1963; Jervis, 1976; Levy, 1994). That is, we contend that substantive and lasting change in Cuba and North Korea did not occur because of the absence of learning by the leaders of those states. By learning, we mean "a change in beliefs (or degree of confidence in one's beliefs) or the development of new beliefs, skills, or procedures as a result of the observation and interpretation of experience" (Levy, 1994, p. 283). Thus, the main assumption of this study is that the mechanisms of continuity are situated in the beliefs of the Cuban and North Korean leadership.

The great transformations of the late 1980s and early 1990s, so we contend, provided plenty of opportunity for the observation and interpretation of experi- ence: the international structure, Cuba and North Korea's position within it, and the dyadic relationships between the Soviet Union vis-a-vis Cuba and North Korea all changed dramatically. Thus, it is very puzzling that Cuban and North Korean foreign policy did not undergo sizeable changes following this catalytic period. Following from this and given our basic assumptions, our primary research ques- tions are: "Did Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung learn from their Cold War experi- ences, and if so, what did they learn?"

There is a large demand to apply theories used within the field of interna- tional relations to the cases of Cuba and North Korea (e.g., Ahn, 1997; Kim, 1998). The most frequently articulated plea is for individual level theorizing (e.g., Gonzalez, 1996; Gonzalez & Ronfeldt, 1986; Planas, 1993; Smith, 1988), and common sense explains why this is so. While democratic countries are charac- terized by systems of checks and balances and multiple veto points, hindering the personalized rule of one individual, authoritarian regimes often lack these features (Tsebelis, 2002). Leaders in authoritarian regimes are better able to pursue their subjective will, as they are often considered to be what Hermann and Hermann (1989) call "predominant leaders." Yet, ironically, to the best of our knowledge, no systematic effort has been undertaken to theorize about the leaders of Cuba and North Korea-a gap that we intend to fill.

Answering our primary research questions also allows us to shed some light on an empirical, theoretically uninformed debate found in the literature on Cuba and North Korea. Traditionally, scholars considered Castro and Kim to be hard- line communists who rejected liberal ideas and policies on the domestic as well as the foreign policy level. With regard to foreign policy, Castro and Kim were characterized as having rather hostile beliefs and attitudes toward the (over- whelmingly capitalistic) outside world (on Cuba see Dominguez, 1989, pp. 29-33; Erisman, 1985; on North Korea see Buzo, 1999; Eberstadt & Ellings, 2001; Kim, 1998). Throughout the Cold War decades Cuba and North Korea pursued hard- line policies of confrontation and were particularly antagonistic towards the United States as the imperialist force of the capitalist world but also against most other "capitalist" states.

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This consensus regarding the beliefs and attitudes of Castro and Kim, however, largely disappeared upon the Cold War's end. According to some revi- sionist interpretations of Cuban and North Korean foreign policy behavior in the post-Cold War era, the two states appear to depart somewhat from policies of "revolution" towards more moderate policies of pragmatism that seem to better serve the national interest. Scholars now also tend to offer two conflicting inter- pretations of these leaders. One group of scholars, whom we refer to as the "status quo school," argues that the beliefs of Castro and Kim have not been affected and therefore remain autonomous from external events such as the end of the Cold War and the Soviet collapse. Put simply, they argue that Castro and Kim's beliefs have not changed and that any post-Cold War behavior is due to external factors (on Castro see Centeno, 1997; Dominguez, 1993, 1997; Mesa-Lago, 1993a, 1993b; Pickel, 1998; Ritter, 1994; Suchlicki, 2000; on Castro and Kim see Mazarr, 1991; on Kim see Ho-yol, 1992; Moon-Young, 1994; Youn, 1999). On the other hand, a second group of scholars, whom we call the "reformist school," argue that the events leading to the end of the Cold War had a significant impact on Castro and Kim; they argue that Castro and Kim have adjusted their beliefs in response to changes in the international system, and furthermore, that post-Cold War behav- ior is due to altered beliefs (on Castro see Erisman, 2000; Fernandez, 1994; Rich- Kaplowitz, 1993; Smith, 1992; on Kim see Kim, 1994; Oh, 1990; Sang-Woo, 1991, 1992). In short, these two schools disagree over whether the two leaders have exhibited significant learning.

The debate and disagreement between the status-quo and reformist schools poses an interesting research puzzle that recurs within the literature on foreign policy decision making and political psychology (e.g., Breslauer & Tetlock, 1991; Levy, 1994; Stein, 1994; Tetlock, 1998): Do individuals learn from process and experience? If so, what do they learn? Furthermore, is learning related to foreign policy behavior? In order to answer these research questions, we employ opera- tional code analysis (George, 1969, 1979; Holsti, 1977; Walker, 1977, 1983, 1990).

Operational code analysis allows us to determine Castro and Kim's philosophical beliefs about the nature of the political universe-whether it is cooperative or conflictual, and the nature of political conflict-as well as their instrumental beliefs about the most effective strategies for accomplishing politi- cal goals. When applied over time, operational code analysis makes it possible to detect changes in a decision maker's belief system as a result of learning (Walker, Schafer, & Marfleet, 2001; see also Bennett, 1999). Operational code analysis thus permits us to offer answers regarding our primary research puzzle and thereby to function as arbitrator between the status quo and reformist schools. While the explanandum of this study is beliefs, there also appears to be a relationship between beliefs and behavior (George, 1979; Holsti, 1976; Tetlock, 1991, 1998). We will formulate our hypothesis so that it is possible to falsify either of the inter- pretations given by the reformist and status quo schools regarding the origins of

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The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung

Cuban and North Korean post-Cold War behavior. Doing so also allows us to address an auxiliary puzzle, namely whether in the present cases beliefs are linked to behavior or whether these are epiphenomenal vis-a-vis behavioral changes.

The remainder of this paper will proceed in the following manner. First, we illustrate the dimensions of the Soviet withdrawal from Cuba and North Korea in economic and political terms. We argue that the Soviet abandonment, which led to economic crisis and political isolation in Cuba and North Korea, was an event of such magnitude that it provided ample opportunity and incentives for Castro and Kim to reevaluate their beliefs. Second, arguing for a belief systems approach to the present research question, we will present operational code analysis as a method not only for the identification of a leader's beliefs but also for the iden- tification of learning patterns.

In a subsequent section we will discuss levels of learning and distinguish these from other mechanisms that may lead to changes in foreign policy behav- ior. This move allows us to function as an arbiter between the "status quo group" and the "reformist group." Then we present and discuss the results of our data analysis. We also assess whether changing circumstances, personalities, or a com- bination thereof matters more in an explanation of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung's beliefs as leaders of rogue states. Finally, we conclude by drawing attention to a debate between structure and agent-based explanations for foreign policy behavior.

The Cold War: Soviet Withdrawal from Cuba and North Korea

In structural terms, the Cold War era was marked by bipolarity-a condition in which states are polarized into two opposing coalitions of about equal power (Wagner, 1993; Waltz, 1979). However, the economic and political problems of the Soviet Union as the leader of one of these coalitions led to the independence of Eastern Europe and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. The ultimate outcome was the end of the Cold War accompanied by a change in the distribution of power among states and a structural transformation from bipolarity to unipolarity (Mastanduno, 1997). Because units within the international system adapt to new structural configurations, the end of the Cold War also affected the particular sit- uations of individual states, which in turn affected dyadic relationships between states (Lebow, 1994). Thus, the disintegration of the Soviet Union as one of the systemic poles changed the structure of the international system, but it also led to situational changes within the particular dyadic relationships between the Soviet Union (later Russia) vis-a-vis Cuba and North Korea.

For the vast part of the Cold War era both Cuba and North Korea, as "fortresses of communism," were able to rely on the Soviet Union for economic and military support in the form of aid and subsidized trade. This relationship extended into the Gorbachev era, peaked there, but was then terminated by Gor- bachev and other reform-minded allies as they recognized and acknowledged the

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Malici & Malici

-- GNP Growth North '-5 Korea

O -10 G--i GDP Growth Cuba

-15

-20 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Year

Figure 1. Real GNP/GDP Growth Rates, 1985-1994 Sources: Oh and Hassig (2000, p. 42), Hernndez-Cata (2000, p. 30), United

Nations (1997, p. 47).

"errors" of their past policies (Erisman, 2000, pp. 110-111).2 Relations that had

formerly been with other communist partners began being replaced by new rela- tions with Western states, especially the United States (Blacker, 1993, p. 188; Blasier, 1993, pp. 68-70).

Subsequent trade losses at the end of the Cold War would have been less damaging to the economies of North Korea and Cuba had they been able to com- pensate for the loss by initiating new partnerships. Yet they could not. During the time period under consideration, North Korean total trade was virtually cut in half, and Cuban total trade declined by almost 75% leaving both countries in severe economic recessions (Erisman, 2000, pp. 148-149; Mesa-Lago, 1993b, p. 138).

The magnitude of this ensuing economic recession becomes even clearer when considering North Korea and Cuba's GNP/GDP and the evolution of foreign debt in the years surrounding these events.3 As shown in Figure 1, before 1990, real GNP growth rates for North Korea were modest yet steadily positive oscil- lating between 2.1 and 3.3%. The abrupt downfall came in 1990, when the Soviet Union undertook concrete measures that curtailed the North Korean economy, which bottomed out in 1992 with a negative growth rate of 7.6%. Though recov- ering somewhat in the following years, the North Korean economy was unable to reach positive growth rates. Similar observations hold for Cuban real GDP growth

2 Regarding Gorbachev's policy changes, Stein (1994) argues that Gorbachev changed his policies by "trial and error" learning, and Wohlforth (1994/95, p. 115) argues that "cognitive change was compelled by mounting negative feedback." See also Kupchan (1994, pp. 495ff).

3 Though we have made extensive efforts at data collection, we have encountered some limits. We could not find a consistent measure of macroeconomic growth across the two cases, which is why we report real GNP growth rates for North Korea and real GDP growth rates for Cuba. Addition- ally, we have been unable to locate real GDP growth rates for Cuba for the years 1986, 1987, and 1988. For North Korea's real GNP growth, see Oh and Hassig (2000, p. 42). For Cuba's real GDP growth from 1988 to 1994, see Hernmndez-Cata (2000, p. 30), and for 1985, see United Nations (1997, p. 47).

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The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung

rates. Although we are missing data between 1986 and 1988, it appears as no coin- cidence that the real GDP growth rate, while still positive in 1989, dropped into the negative in 1990-the same year that the Soviet-Cuban economic agreement, which provided Cuba with much less favorable terms of trade than it had been accustomed to receiving, was renegotiated. By 1993, real GDP reached rock bottom with a negative growth rate of 14.9%. Thereafter it recovered somewhat, yielding a rate of 0.7% in 1994 (Hemarndez-Cata, 2000).

The magnitude of Cuba and North Korea's economic recession is furthermore illustrated when considering the evolution of their foreign debt. Whereas in 1985 North Korea's foreign debt made for "only" 19.2% of its GNP, by 1991 North Korean foreign debt was 40.5% of GNP, and even reached 50.3% in 1994. Again, a similar pattern developed in Cuba. Whereas in 1985 Cuba's foreign debt was 12.1% of its GDP, by 1991 foreign debt accounted for as much as 35.6% of GDP, and this figure reached 59% in 1993. In both cases the percentage of foreign debt to GNP/GDP increased significantly after the Soviet Union pulled out (on Cuba see Erisman, 2000, p. 122; on North Korea see Oh & Hassig, 2000). Parallel to these developments Fidel Castro and Kim I1 Sung had to witness how their former communist allies in eastern Europe were-sometimes violently-pushed out of their offices.

But, did Castro and Kim consequentially learn from these events, and if so, what did they learn? These questions are derived from and motivated by our basic assumptions: (1) that the late 1980s and early 1990s was a catalytic period for these countries and (2) that the mechanisms of continuity and change are situated in the beliefs of Cuban and North Korean leadership.4 Although there is dis- agreement over whether Castro and Kim learned, what scholars do seem to agree on is the nature of Cuban and North Korean foreign policy behavior in the Cold War era as well as in the post-Cold War era, which is marked by a mixture of change and continuity.5 On the one hand we observe some moderation and prag- matism of Cuban and North Korean foreign policy behavior in the post-Cold War era. Instances are Cuba's decreased participation in socialist revolutionary

4 Critics might counter and argue that Fidel Castro and Kim I1 Sung were not entirely free to learn and to change their attitudes as major concessions to the capitalist world would have endangered their political standing at home. A slightly different argument would be that if Castro or Kim were to make concessions toward the aggressively portrayed capitalist world, they would no longer have the "Yankee imperialists" to blame for domestic problems, and anti-Americanism would no longer serve to unify the Cuban and North Korean peoples under the Castro and Kim regimes. However, both counterarguments are mistaken. As cases in Eastern Europe efficiently demonstrated, it is not concessions that endanger a regime, but rather the continuation of Cold War practices. Regarding the second argument, the idea that the Cuban and North Korean people were unified behind their leaders is simply wrongheaded. Indeed, scholars have often commented on the eroding political legitimacy of Castro and Kim's regimes (Mazarr, 1991; Gonzalez, 1996, pp. 19-20, 28-32; Oh and Hassig, 2000, pp. 127-147). Hence, the above assertion remains: the events between 1985 and 1991 provided ample opportunity and incentive for Castro and Kim to learn.

5 For a detailed account of Cuban and North Korean foreign policy behavior in the post-Cold War period see Erisman (2000), Fernandez (1994), Henriksen (1997), and Lee (2001).

393

movements, its withdrawal of armed forces in foreign countries, and, in the eco- nomic realm, the legalization of a small-scale private sector, joint ventures, and foreign ownership (Pickel, 1998, p. 77). Similarly, North Korea conceded and signed a 25-article Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-aggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation (the "Basic Agreement") with South Korea, signed the "Agreed Framework" with the United States, and, in the economic realm, created a free economic trading zone (FETZ; Cotton, 1998; Lee, 2001, p. 60).

At the same time Cuba and North Korea demonstrated a tendency to resume practices of the Cold War era. Instances here are Cuba's violent crackdown of political dissidents, thereby violating international human rights, a continuously harsh denunciation of United States' foreign policy, or the rejection of United States envoys (Fernandez, 1994, pp. 57, 60). North Korea, for its part, demon- strated continuity as it became delinquent in meeting its IAEA obligations, threat- ening to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and engaging in the reprocessing of plutonium (Manning, 1998, p. 145; Snyder, 1997).

Cuba and North Korea's departure from Cold War policies thus appears unsta- ble at best. Accordingly, the "status quo" group of scholars questions the sincer- ity of any changes that did occur in the post-Cold War period. We should also bear in mind that despite the dramatic changes in Cuba and North Korea's position in the international system, and unlike other former socialist states, Cuba and North Korea remained socialist. It is a combination of these aspects that splits the schol- arly community into a "status quo" group and a "reformist" group regarding the analysis of North Korean and Cuban foreign policy in the post-Cold War era.

Operational Code Analysis and Learning Dynamics

The "reformist" and "status quo" scholars agree on the importance of Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung when examining North Korean and Cuban foreign poli- cymaking. The literature indicates that Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung are to be categorized as predominant leaders (Hermann & Hermann, 1989), establishing them as indispensable actors (Greenstein, 1967). Regarding Castro, for example, it is argued that,

To understand Cuban foreign policy, one must first understand Fidel Castro. Even though Cuba has a more institutionalized and complex political order than before, Castro remains the architect of foreign policy, the final arbiter of policy disputes, and the ultimate authority whose backing must be secured by all political subordinates... he remains Cuba's undisputed Socialist caudillo and lider maximo. (Gonzalez and Ronfeldt, 1986, p. 1)

Similarly, regarding Kim Il Sung it is argued that he "exhibit[s] the classic char- acteristic of the 'personalized power' leader.... Governance in North Korea is a case of personalized rule" in which no one aside from Kim Il Sung has power

394 Malici & Malici

The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung

(Oh and Hassig, 2000, pp. 96, 103). These and similar evaluations feed into Holsti's argument that individual level approaches are particularly promising and relevant when "decisions [are] made at the pinnacle of the government hierarchy by leaders who are relatively free from organizational and other constraints-or who may at least define their roles in ways that enhance their latitude for choice" (1976, p. 30).

The theoretical and empirical call for an individual-level approach suggests that operational code analysis provides a satisfying method for examining our research puzzle. Leites (1951, 1953) initially introduced operational code analy- sis into the discipline of political science. In A Study of Bolshevism, Leites attempted to "study the spirit of a ruling group... [through] ... the analysis of [one aspect] of... its doctrine ... what I call the operational code, that is, the conceptions of political 'strategy'" (1953, p. 15), understood as internalized rules of conduct and norms of behavior that were shared among the Soviet ruling elite (George, 1969, p. 194; Walker, 1990, p. 404). In his attempt to systematize and simplify Leites' extraordinarily complex work, George (1969) suggested that a leader's "operational code" be conceptualized as a political belief system consist- ing of two central elements, philosophical beliefs and instrumental beliefs. While a leader's philosophical beliefs guide the diagnosis of the context for action, their instrumental counterparts prescribe the most effective strategy and tactics for achieving political goals.

Taken together, these beliefs act as guides for making political decisions. In order to discern these beliefs, George formulated the 10 questions below that, when answered, "would capture a leader's 'fundamental orientation towards the problem of leadership and action'" (George, 1969, p. 200). While both George (1969) and Holsti (1977) originally proposed that individual beliefs formed a coherent belief system that remained relatively stable over time and across policy domains, subsequent empirical research supported this proposition for some, but not all leaders (Walker, 1977, 1995; Walker & Falkowski, 1984; Walker, Schafer, & Young, 1998). As a consequence of these mixed results a leader's operational code was reconceptualized as a set of alternative "states of mind," which may contain different answers to George's questions (Walker, 1983, 1995). This move allows for "compartmentalization of beliefs within the same individual into schemata that vary by issue or actor domains,... [and] learning (defined as changes in beliefs) over time by a leader" (Walker et al., 1998, p. 178).

George's Ten Questions About Operational Code Beliefs

The Philosophical Beliefs in an Operational Code

P-1. What is the "essential" nature of political life? Is the political universe essen- tially one of harmony or conflict? What is the fundamental character of one's political opponents?

395

P-2. What are the prospects for the eventual realization of one's fundamental values and aspirations? Can one be optimistic, or must one be pessimistic on this score; and in what respects the one and/or the other?

P-3. Is the political future predictable? In what sense and to what extent? P-4. How much "control" or "mastery" can one have over historical develop-

ment? What is one's role in "moving" and "shaping" history in the desired direction?

P-5. What is the role of "chance" in human affairs and in historical development?

The Instrumental Beliefs in an Operational Code

I-1. What is the best approach for selecting goals or objectives for political action?

1-2. How are the goals of action pursued most effectively? 1-3. How are the risks of political action calculated, controlled, and accepted? 1-4. What is the best "timing" of action to advance one's interests? 1-5. What is the utility and role of different means for advancing one's interests?

Levels of Learning and Main Hypothesis

The hypothesis that we advance to explain Cuban and North Korean foreign policy behavior in the post-Cold War era is a learning hypothesis. We follow Levy's (1994) definition of experiential learning to refer to changes in beliefs (see also Tetlock, 1991; Walker et al., 2001). Conceptualized within an operational code framework, learning occurs if and when Castro and Kim Il Sung's beliefs about the nature of the political universe and the most effective means to achieve political goals are strengthened, weakened, or altered altogether. Operational code analysis also allows us to distinguish among three levels of experiential learning: simple, diagnostic, and complex (Deutsch, 1963; Leng, 2000; Levy, 1994; Nye, 1987; Tetlock, 1991; Walker et al., 2001).

Simple learning is defined as changes in instrumental beliefs about the best means to achieve goals, and diagnostic learning is defined as changes in philo- sophical beliefs about the political universe. Complex learning occurs when an actor's key philosophical beliefs about political goals and key instrumental beliefs about the most effective means to achieve them are modified so as to alter a leader's strategic preferences. Walker et al. (2001) identify the leader's image of the political universe (P-1), the belief in the ability to control historical develop- ment (P-4), and the leader's belief regarding the most effective strategy for achiev- ing political goals (I-1) as key beliefs (see also Walker, Schafer, & Young, 2003, pp. 231-235). Their corresponding indices aggregate the basic elements (attribu- tions and valences) used to construct the indices of all the remaining operational code beliefs into summary indices of beliefs about the power relationship (P-4) and the cooperative or conflictual orientations between self (I-1) and other (P-1).

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The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung

The answer to our basic research question, "Did Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung learn from their Cold War experiences, and if so, what did they learn?" lies in identifying the learning that the leaders experienced and evaluating what they learned at each level of learning.

An important distinction is to be drawn between any substantive change and a statistically significant change of beliefs (Achen, 1982). While any substantive

changes inform us about a shift in a leader's beliefs in the context of a learning hypothesis, they could have occurred simply through random chance. Applying a test of statistical significance to evaluate the change lessens this possibility, allow-

ing us to draw conclusions with more confidence. Our yardstick for measuring learning is thus a change in a leader's beliefs at the p < .05 or p < .10 level of

significance, depending on whether or not it is a directional hypothesis being tested.

One cautionary note is appropriate here and that is learning means changes in beliefs and does not automatically involve behavioral changes.6 "The latter," as Walker, Shafer, and Marfleet (2001) point out, "could reflect a leader's adap- tation to changing circumstances (structural adaptation) or simply a reaction to a stimulus (social learning) without a corresponding change in important beliefs" (see also Levy, 1994). Such a distinction is important for the assessment of whether any Cuban or North Korean departure from Cold War practices was

simply structural adaptation due to a fundamental change of the international envi- ronment and Cuba and North Korea's positions within it after 1991, or just behav- ioral adjustment due to social learning following the Soviet withdrawal.

If experiential learning is related to the conduct of Cuban and North Korean post-Cold War foreign policy, then Cuban and North Korean operational code beliefs should experience a change following the end of the Cold War and the Soviet withdrawal. This main hypothesis is consistent with the shift of Cuban and North Korean foreign policy towards some pragmatism for the time period after 1991. It is stated so that it is possible to falsify the empirical interpretations of either the "status quo" scholars or "reformist" scholars. More specifically, if the hypothesis is confirmed, the interpretations of the "reformist school" bear more validity. On the other hand, if the hypothesis is rejected, then the conclusion would be that Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung did not learn and that the interpretation of the status quo school bears more validity.

The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung

In order to assess Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung's operational code beliefs we employ the Verbs in Context System (VICS). As a method of content analysis, VICS draws inferences about a decision maker's operational code beliefs from

6 For a contrasting view/definition see Jarosz and Nye (1989, p. 130) who define learning as "the acquisition of new knowledge or information that leads to a change in behavior."

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public statements such as speeches or interviews made by the decision maker.7 We use an automated content analysis program called Profiler +, which retrieves the verbs from each decision maker's public statements, codes them with the aid of an operational code dictionary, and then provides the data to index each element of the decision maker's operational code. VICS works by retrieving "utterances," in this case each verb in the statement and the corresponding parts of speech asso- ciated with the verb.8 VICS provides values for six attributes for each recorded verb and its surrounding context: subject, verb category, domain of politics, tense of the verb, intended target, and context (see Table 1). These categories become the basis for calculating the operational code indices, as Table 2 illustrates (Walker, 2000a, pp. 6-7; Walker, Schafer, & Young 2003). Our strategy for assess-

ing our research questions is to compare and contrast the VICS scores of each leader's operational code over time as well as to each other. Thus, the independ- ent variables for our analysis are time period and leader while the operational code beliefs serve as the dependent variables.9

We also compare the scores of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung to the mean scores of a collection of 164 speech acts given by 30 different and diverse world leaders-leaders of poor and rich states and weak and strong states-whom we refer to as a norming group. Making this set of comparisons allows us to put the Cuban and North Korean leaders into a broader perspective, which is instructive because it permits us to develop a better sense of how the leaders in our study- Third World communist leaders who experienced significant political and eco-

7 To the extent possible, we followed Walker, Schafer, and Young (1998, p. 182), who set the fol- lowing criteria for foreign policy speeches: "(1) the subject and object are international in scope; (2) the focus of interaction is a political issue; (3) the words and deeds are cooperative or conflict- ual." The sample of speeches for Fidel Castro was randomly drawn from the Lexis Nexis Academic Universe databank and the University of Texas' Latin American Network Information Center (LANIC) Castro Speech Database. Our final sample included 13 speeches for the Cold War period (1981-1985) and 11 foreign policy speeches for the post-Cold War period (1991-1994). Due to the scarcity of speeches by Kim II Sung, random sampling was not possible. Databases, such as Lexis Nexis and the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS) served as our main sources for the sample. In addition, some speeches in our sample were taken from Kim II Sung: For an Indepen- dent World (1986), a collection of his speeches and interviews. From these sources we selected those speeches that meet the above criteria best. Despite this effort, the ratio between domestic and foreign policy content contained in these speeches is somewhat more balanced than was the case for Castro's sample. Our final sample of Kim Il Sung's rhetoric included 13 speeches for the Cold War period (1981-1985), and eight speeches for the post-Cold War period (1991-1994).

8 For example, if the verb is transitive, then VICS will record the subject and object of the verb; if the verb is intransitive, then VICS records the subject and predicate nominative or adjective.

9 "At-a-distance" assessment techniques, such as operational code analysis, are sometimes criticized for not truly capturing internally held beliefs of leaders (see Schafer, 2000, for a wider discussion). We contend that this critique is often inflated and somewhat beside the point. The operational code research program does not necessarily claim that it captures the private beliefs of leaders. Instead, it aims to analyze and determine publicly articulated beliefs that the leader is convinced to be impor- tant at a given moment in time and see if they influence a state's behavior (Vertzberger, 1990, p. 114; see also Winter, Hermann, Weintraub, & Walker, 1991).

Malici & Malici 398

The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung

Table 1. Steps in the Verbs in Context System (VICS)*

1. IDENTIFY THE SUBJECT AS

SELF OR OTHER

2. IDENTIFY THE TENSE OF THE TRANSITIVE VERB AS

PAST PRESENT FUTURE

AND IDENTIFY THE CATEGORY OF THE VERB AS

POSITIVE (+) OR NEGATIVE (-)

APPEAL, SUPPORT (+1) OPPOSE, RESIST (-1) WORDS OR OR

PROMISE BENEFITS (+2) THREATEN COSTS (-2)

DEEDS REWARDS (+3) PUNISHMENTS (-3)

3. IDENTIFY THE DOMAIN AS

DOMESTIC OR FOREIGN

4. IDENTIFY TARGET AND PLACE IN CONTEXT

AN EXAMPLE A quote taken from President Carter's January 4, 1980, address to the nation: "Massive Soviet military forces have invaded the small, non-aligned, sovereign nation of Afghanistan ..."

1. Subject. The subject is "Massive Soviet military forces" which is coded as other, that is, the speaker is not referring to his or her self or his or her state.

2. Tense and Category. The verb phrase "have invaded" is in the past tense and is a negative deed coded, therefore, as punish.

3. Domain. The action involves an actor (Soviet military forces) external to the speaker's state (the United States); therefore, the domain is foreign.

4. Target and Context. The action is directed toward Afghanistan; therefore, the target is coded as Afghanistan. In addition, we designate a context: Soviet-Afghanistan-conflict-1979-88.

The complete data line for this statement is: other -3 foreign past afghanistan soviet-afghanistan- conflict-1979-88.

*adapted from Walker et al., 1998.

nomic crises at the end of the Cold War-compare to the "average leader."10 We conclude our analysis with a comparison of the two leaders in the post-Cold War period.

The results from the difference of means test between Castro's Cold War (1980-1985) operational code and that of the norming group, summarized in Table 3, suggest that Castro's beliefs differed significantly from those of the 0 The data for the norming group was obtained from Professor Mark Schafer, Department of Politi-

cal Science, 240 Stubbs Hall, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803-5433.

399

Table 2. Indices for Philosophical & Instrumental Beliefs*

PHILOSOPHICAL BELIEFS

Elements Index** Interpretation

P-l. NATURE OF THE POLITICAL %Positive minus %Negative +1.0 friendly to UNIVERSE (Image of Others) Transitive Other Attributions -1.0 hostile

P-2. REALIZATION OF POLITICAL Mean Intensity of Transitive +1.0 optimistic to VALUES (Optimism/Pessimism) Other Attributions divided by 3 -1.0 pessimistic

P-3 POLITICAL FUTURE 1 minus Index of Qualitative 1.0 predictable (Predictability of Others' Tactics) Variation*** for Other to 0.0 uncertain

Attributions P-4. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT Self Attributions divided by 1.0 high to 0.0

(Locus of Control) [Self plus Other Attributions] low self control P-5. ROLE OF CHANCE (Absence 1 minus [Political Future x 1.0 high role

of Control) Historical Development Index] to 0.0 low role

INSTRUMENTAL BELIEFS

Elements Index Interpretation

I-1. APPROACH TO GOALS %Positive minus %Negative +1.0 high cooperation (Direction of Strategy) Transitive Self Attributions to -1.0 high conflict

1-2. PURSUIT OF GOALS (Intensity Mean Intensity of Transitive +1.0 high cooperation of Tactics) Self Attributions divided by 3 to -1.0 high conflict

1-3. RISK ORIENTATION 1 minus Index of Qualitative 1.0 risk acceptant (Predictability of Tactics) Variation for Self Attributions to 0.0 risk-averse

1-4. TIMING OF ACTION 1 minus Absolute Value [%X 1.0 high to 0.0 (Flexibility of Tactics) minus %Y Self Attributions] low shift propensity a. Coop v. Conf Tactics Where X = Coop and Y = Conf b. Word v. Deed Tactics Where X = Word and Y = Deed

1-5. UTILITY OF MEANS (Exercise Percentages for Exercise of +1.0 very frequent of Power) Power Categories a through f to 0.0 infrequent a. Reward a's frequency divided by total b. Promise b's frequency divided by total c. Appeal/Support c's frequency divided by total d. Oppose/Resist d's frequency divided by total e. Threaten e's frequency divided by total f. Punish f's frequency divided by total

*adapted from Walker et al., 2001. **All indices vary between 0 and 1.0 except for P-l, P-2, I-1, and 1-2, which vary between -1.0 and +1.0. P-2 and I-2 are divided by three to standardize the range (Walker, Schafer, & Young, 1998). ***"The Index of Qualitative Variation is a ratio of the number of different pairs of observations in a distribution to the maximum possible number of different pairs for a distribution with the same N [number of cases] and the same number of variable classifications" (Watson & McGaw, 1980: 88).

400 Malici & Malici

The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim Ii Sung

Table 3. Operational Codes of Two Cold Warriors Compared to Norming Group

Philosophical & Instrumental Beliefs P-1. Nature of Political Universe

(Conflict/Cooperation) P-2. Realization of Political Values

(Pessimism/Optimism) P-3. Political Future

(Unpredictable/Predictable) P-4. Historical Development

(Low Control/High Control) P-5. Role of Chance

(Small Role/Large Role) I-1. Strategic Approach to Goals

(Conflict/Cooperation) 1-2. Intensity of Tactics

(Conflict/Cooperation) 1-3. Risk Orientation

(Averse/Acceptant) 1-4. Timing of Action

a. Conflict/Cooperation b. Words/Deeds

1-5. Utility of Means a. Reward b. Promise c. Appeal/Support d. Oppose/Resist e. Threaten f. Punish

Castro

(n= 13) 0.081*

-0.001*

0.101*

0.161*

0.983

0.154*

0.094

0.116*

0.664* 0.694*

0.202 0.106 0.269* 0.200 0.066* 0.158

Norming Group

(n = 164) 0.301

0.147

0.134

0.224

0.968

0.401

0.178

0.332

0.503 0.464

0.157 0.075 0.468 0.154 0.034 0.112

Kim Il Sung

(n = 13) 0.321

0.239*

0.123

0.165*

0.980

0.383

0.202

0.194*

0.566 0.659*

0.261* 0.096 0.335* 0.084* 0.054 0.171*

*Significant difference between each leader and the norming group at the p < .10 level (two-tailed test).

average leader in a number of ways. All of Castro's philosophical beliefs differed significantly from the norming group such that Castro viewed the political uni- verse in more conflictual terms (P-l), was more pessimistic about the realization of political values (P-2), thought the political future was less predictable (P-3), believed he had less control over historical development (P-4), and thought chance played a large role in political outcomes. Several of Castro's instrumental beliefs were also significantly different from the norming group. During the Cold War, Castro had a more conflictual strategic approach to goals (I-1), was less accep- tant of risk (1-3), had a significantly higher propensity to shift between coopera- tive and conflictual tactics (I-4a) and between words and deeds (I-4b), and ascribed significantly less utility to Appeal tactics (I-5c) and more utility to Threaten tactics (I-5e) as a means of goal attainment.

401

Malici & Malici

The results from the difference of means test between Kim Il Sung's Cold War (1980-1985) operational code and that of the norming group displays a some- what similar pattern. During the Cold War period, Kim Il Sung believed that he had significantly less control over historical development (P-4), but he was sig- nificantly more optimistic about the realization of political values (P-2) when

compared to the norming group. Like Castro, Kim was less acceptant of risk and had a comparatively high propensity to shift between words and deeds (I-4b) during the Cold War period. Finally, with respect to the average leader, Kim Il Sung ascribed significantly less utility to Appeal (I-5c) and Oppose (I-5d) tactics and significantly more utility to Reward (I-5a) and Punish (I-5f) tactics as a means for attaining political goals during the Cold War period.

In sum, Castro and Kim are distinct from the average world leader. However, Castro's beliefs deviate from the norming group more so than Kim's. Castro is distinct with respect to all of the key operational code beliefs (P-1, P-4, I-1) while Kim is different with respect to one of them (P-4). Geopolitical reasons are likely to figure in Castro's more intense hostility. Cuba is in close proximity to the U.S. superpower, while North Korea is located thousands of miles away from the Western enemy. Nevertheless, both leaders show significant differences on a number of the remaining operational code beliefs, demonstrating their unique identities.

Learning Comparisons

Our main concern in this paper is the disagreement between the two con- tending groups of scholars: did the end of the Cold War lead these leaders to alter their beliefs as the reformist group of scholars argues? Or do Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung's beliefs continue into the post-Cold War period despite their new, isolated position in the international system as the status quo group of scholars suggest? Determining whether or not Castro and Kim learned requires us to compare the leaders' Cold War operational codes to their post-Cold War opera- tional codes. To test the reformist school's learning hypothesis that the two rogue leaders have shifted their foreign policy orientations in a cooperative direction, we have conducted a one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) for each leader using time period as the independent factor and the operational code indices as dependent variables.

When comparing Castro's Cold War (1980-1985) operational code to his post-Cold War (1991-1994) operational code, a few statistically significant dif- ferences emerge. The ANOVA results in Table 4 suggest that, compared to the Cold War period, Castro believed he had significantly more control over histori- cal development (P-4) in the post-Cold War period. This perception of increased control is most likely the result of the collapse of the Soviet Union as the center of the ideological battle against western capitalism. Now he considered himself to be in charge of continuing the battle. Only a few of Castro's instrumental beliefs

402

The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung

Table 4. Fidel Castro's and Kim I1 Sung's Cold War and Post-Cold War Operational Codes

Fidel Castro Kim I1 Sung

1980-1985 1991-1994 1980-1985 1991-1994

Philosophical & Instrumental Beliefs P-1. Nature of Political Universe

(Conflict/Cooperation) P-2. Realization of Political Values

(Pessimism/Optimism) P-3. Political Future

(Unpredictable/Predictable) P-4. Historical Development

(Low Control/High Control) P-5. Role of Chance

(Small Role/Large Role) I-1. Strategic Approach to Goals

(Conflict/Cooperation) 1-2. Intensity of Tactics

(Conflict/Cooperation) 1-3. Risk Orientation

(Averse/Acceptant) 1-4. Timing of Action

a. Conflict/Cooperation b. Words/Deeds

I-5. Utility of Means a. Reward b. Promise c. Appeal/Support d. Oppose/Resist e. Threaten f. Punish

(n = 13) (n = Il) (n = 13) (n = 8) 0.081 0.183 0.322 0.383

-0.001

0.101

0.063

0.098

0.161* 0.205*

0.983

0.154

0.094

0.116

0.664 0.694

0.202 0.106* 0.269* 0.200 0.066 0.158

0.980

0.370

0.182

0.167

0.610 0.632

0.213 0.054* 0.418* 0.133 0.059 0.123

0.239

0.123

0.165

0.980

0.383

0.202

0.194

0.566 0.659

0.261 0.096 0.335 0.084 0.054 0.171

0.260

0.147

0.196

0.970

0.438

0.249

0.203

0.562 0.762

0.271 0.065 0.384 0.092 0.079 0.110

*Significant difference between indices at the p < .05 level (one-tailed test).

had changed significantly from the Cold War to the post-Cold War period-in the

post-Cold War period Castro was less likely to ascribe utility to Promise tactics

(I-5b) and more likely to ascribe utility to Appeal (I-5c) tactics as a means of

attaining political goals than he was during the Cold War period. Unlike Castro, Kim I1 Sung's Cold War and post-Cold War operational codes in Table 4 show no

significant differences.

Although Castro perceives that he has significantly more control over his- torical development and shows more inclination to appeal to others in the post- Cold War period, a consideration of his remaining operational code beliefs indicates that overall he continues to maintain a conflictual stance. These results seem to suggest that Castro engaged at best in modest learning, and Kim II Sung did not learn. That is to say, whereas one of Castro's philosophical beliefs about

political goals and two of his instrumental beliefs about the most effective means

403

to achieve them were modified from the Cold War to the post-Cold War period, changes in Kim Il Sung's beliefs were not significant.

These findings lend little support to the reformist group of Cuban scholars and strong support to the status quo group of North Korean scholars. Only one of Castro's key operational code indices (P-4) changed significantly between the Cold War and post-Cold War period. For Kim Il Sung the conclusion is straightforward since he did not engage in any learning. Therefore, we conclude that the changes in Cuban and North Korean foreign policies following the Cold War were more likely due to structural adaptation to changing circumstances than to experiential learning by Castro and Kim. The lack of learning by the two leaders is consistent with the erratic pattern and the lack of lasting change in their foreign policies despite radical shocks from their domestic and international environments.

Leader Comparisons

In addition to identifying whether or not Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung learned from their Cold War experiences, we are also interested in knowing if the two leaders' beliefs differ significantly from each other, and if they do, whether the variance in beliefs between the two leaders is due (a) primarily to their individ- ual differences, (b) to the changes in the circumstances they faced at the end of the Cold War, or (c) a combination thereof. In order to examine this question, we have conducted a Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) using time period (Cold War or post-Cold War) and leader (Castro or Kim) as the independ- ent factors and the operational code indices as the dependent variables.

The results of the MANOVA in Table 5 show that there were significant main effects for both leader and time period; however, there were no significant inter- action effects. These findings suggest that the changes in the conditions that con- fronted Cuba and North Korea at the end of the Cold War (measured by the time period factor) were substantial enough to lead to some belief differences inde- pendent of the individual leaders' identities. Independent of whether the leader was Kim Il Sung or Fidel Castro, the end of the Cold War led to significant belief changes such that the leaders thought they had more control over historical devel- opment (P-4 = 0.201 vs. 0.163), and they were more likely to ascribe utility to Appeal tactics (I-5c = 0.404 vs. 0.302) as a means for attaining political goals in the post-Cold War period compared to the Cold War period.

The MANOVA results in Table 5 also reveal that the significant main effects for leader were more substantial than those for time period, suggesting that there are several important differences between Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung, inde- pendent of the global changes accompanying the end of the Cold War. In the realm of philosophical beliefs, Castro views the nature of the political universe in sig- nificantly more conflictual terms (P-l = 0.128 vs. 0.345), is significantly more pessimistic about the realization of political values (P-2 = 0.029 vs. 0.247), and thinks the political future is significantly less predictable (P-3 = 0.099 vs. 0.132)

404 Malici & Malici

The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung

Table 5. Cuban and North Korean Leaders' Beliefs in a Two-Factor Multivariate Analysis of Variance Design (Leader x Time Period)

Main Effects (N = 45) Independent Factors F (1,41) p Value (two-tailed)

Leader P-1 9.700 .003* P-2 15.683 .000* P-3 5.146 .029* P-4 .016 .899 P-5 2.426 .127 I-1 2.681 .109 I-2 1.924 .173 I-3 2.609 .114 I-4a 1.339 .254 I-4b .409 .526 I-5 Reward 2.419 .128 I-5 Promise .000 .986 I-5 Appeal .095 .759 I-5 Oppose 6.852 .012* I-5 Threaten .031 .861 I-5 Punish .000 .999

Time Period P-1 1.330 .255 P-2 .597 .444 P-3 .410 .525 P-4 3.750 .060* P-5 2.294 .138 I-1 2.225 .143 I-2 1.134 .293 I-3 .758 .389 I-4a .211 .649 I-4b .080 .779 I-5 Reward .075 .785 I-5 Promise 2.592 .115 I-5 Appeal 3.868 .056* I-5 Oppose .943 .337 I-5 Threaten .157 .694 I-5 Punish 1.446 .236

Interaction (Leader by Time Period) P-1 .087 .771 P-2 .153 .697 P-3 .732 .397 P-4 .105 .747

405

Table 5.

Interaction (Leader by Time Period) (cont.) P-5 .644 .427 I-1 .785 .381 1-2 .105 .748 I-3 .346 .560 I-4a .160 .691 I-4b 1.268 .267 I-5 Reward .000 .990 I-5 Promise .170 .682 I-5 Appeal 1.004 .322 I-5 Oppose 1.525 .224 I-5 Threaten .481 .492 1-5 Punish .105 .748

*Significant effects at the p < .10 level (two-tailed test).

than Kim II Sung. In the realm of instrumental beliefs, the results suggest that

compared to Kim, Castro is significantly more likely to ascribe utility to Oppose tactics (I-5d = 0.169 vs. 0.087) as a means of accomplishing political goals. The

Strategic Approach to Goals index (I-1) approaches significance (p < .109), and if interpreted as significant, suggests that Castro has a much more conflictual

approach to goals than does Kim II Sung (I-1 = 0.253 vs. 0.404). It seems that

although the end of the Cold War had an impact on these two leaders, Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung have significantly different beliefs about political goals and the most efficient means to achieve these goals."

Conclusion

Our analysis leads us to the following conclusions. First, the belief systems of Kim Il Sung and Fidel Castro differ significantly from the average leader's with Castro displaying more dramatic deviations in the form of significant differences for the key beliefs affecting general strategic orientation (I-1), image of others (P- 2), and control over historical development (P-4). Second, while Fidel Castro shows some evidence of simple and diagnostic learning in the post-Cold War

period, we argue for a cautious interpretation because only a few of his beliefs

changed significantly, and only one of the indices for key beliefs (P-4) shows sig- nificant learning. Kim Il Sung's beliefs did not change significantly, indicating

A static comparison of just the post-Cold War operational codes of Castro and Kim reveals similar differences regarding philosophical beliefs but no significant differences for instrumental beliefs. Castro's view of the political universe is significantly more conflictual (P-l), more pessimistic (P-2), and less predictable (P-3) than Kim's.

406 Malici & Malici

The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung

that he did not engage in any learning. Third, the evidence from the MANOVA presented above also suggests that the end of the Cold War had only a modest impact on the Cuban and North Korean leadership, independent of the specific regional circumstances, personalities or identities of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung. Instead, when we control for the tumultuous events that have accompanied the end of the Cold War, there are significant differences between Castro and Kim's belief systems.

These results lead us back to a debate introduced at the beginning of this paper, namely the debate between "structuralists" and "cognitivists." And it is within the context of this debate that we want to set forth some more general con- clusions. "When do governments change course, and why?" is a question that has received considerable attention in the international relations literature (Hermann, 1990; Wendt, 1992). Structural approaches focus on changes in the international environment and predict that they will impact the foreign policies of individual states. During the late 1980s and early 1990s the configuration of the international system, Cuba and North Korea's position within it, and the dyadic relationships between the Soviet Union vis-a-vis Cuba and North Korea changed profoundly.

Despite forceful arguments made by structuralists (Waltz, 1979; Wolfers, 1962) that these "external shocks" (Hermann, 1990) should lead to changes in the foreign policy behavior especially of small states, Cuba and North Korea continue on the status quo path with rather minor changes in their foreign policies. We contend, therefore, that changes in foreign policy will be missing in the absence of change at the individual level. In opposition to structural approaches, we con- clude that governments and their respective leaders do not necessarily "respond in a rational manner to the reward and punishment contingencies of the interna- tional environment" (Tetlock, 1991, p. 24). Instead, the mechanisms for continu- ity and change are located in the belief systems of leaders. We also agree with Wendt (1992) that a change in leadership may be more potent than an environ- mental change, as in the case of Mikhail Gorbachev's accession to power in the USSR and his subsequent initiatives to end the Cold War.

While a change of leadership might be a necessary condition for change in Cuban and North Korean foreign policy behavior, it may not be a sufficient con- dition. Although Kim I1 Sung was replaced by his son Kim Jong Il in 1994, con- tinuity rather than change has prevailed in North Korea's foreign policy behavior. We suspect that Kim Jong Il shares essential beliefs with his predecessor and that for substantial change to occur, a "reformist mindset" would have to enter the pinnacle of North Korea's foreign policy apparatus. However, future research would have to determine first whether there is indeed continuity between the "beliefs" of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong II.

An alternative strategy for foreign policy change may be to alter the Cuban and North Korean leadership's perceived security context. Both consider the United States as a main threat to their respective regimes. By employing a con- structive strategy of increased and repetitive engagement in the Caribbean and on

407

the Korean peninsula, the United States could potentially contradict the percep- tions of the Cuban and North Korean leadership and thereby compel these states to change their foreign policies with an altercasting strategy. Most famously, Mikhail Gorbachev adopted such a strategy, changing President Reagan and President Bush's "enemy image" perception of the Soviet Union, and was able to end the enduring rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union (see Cha, 2002; Stein, 1994; Walker, 1992; Walker 2000b; Wendt, 1999).

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank the editors and three anonymous reviewers for their helpful sug- gestions and comments. We also want to thank Stephen Walker, Mark Schafer, Hendrik Spruyt, Colin Elman, Bradley Aldrich, and Michael Young. We alone remain responsible for the ideas and perspectives presented in this article. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association. Correspondence concerning this article should be sent to Akan Malici, Department of Political Science, Arizona State Univer- sity, P.O. Box 873902, Tempe, AZ 87287-3902. Email: Akan.Malici@asu.edu.

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