Priority Evaluation: Oklahoma's Promise

Table of Contents LOFT Oversight Committee.........................................................................................3

Executive Summary ....................................................................................................4

Summary of Policy Considerations and Agency Recommendations ..........................6

Introduction ................................................................................................................7

Finding 1: Oklahoma’s Promise Recipients are Earning Critical Workforce Degrees and Remaining in Oklahoma .................................................................................... 10

Finding 2: Oklahoma’s Promise Exceeds the Legislative Intent to Provide Post-Secondary Opportunities for Oklahoma Students. ................................................. 15

Finding 3: Trust Fund Reliance Allows Additional Savings and Appropriation Flexibility for the State Budget. ............................................................................... 21

Finding 4. Tuition and Fees and Income Inflation Is Driving Up Program Costs. ..... 23

Finding 5: Accessibility to Further Data Would Drive Better Evidence-Based Policy Decisions. ................................................................................................................. 29

About the Legislative Office of Fiscal Transparency ................................................ 31

Appendices .............................................................................................................. 32

Appendix A. Methodology ............................................................................... 32

Appendix B. Oklahoma’s Promise Student Requirements .............................. 33

Appendix C. Oklahoma’s Promise Eligibility and Scholarship Process ............ 34

Appendix D. Oklahoma’s Promise 2020-21 Scholarship Rates ....................... 35

Appendix E. State Comparison Education Attainment Rate ........................... 36

Appendix F. Diversity of OKPromise Students (2000-2019) ............................ 37

Appendix G. Degree Attainment Rates by County in Oklahoma ..................... 38

Appendix H. Tuition Setting Authority and Process ........................................ 39

Appendix I. Growth in Tuition and Fees over Time ......................................... 40

Appendix J. Peer State Promise Scholarship Comparison ............................... 42

Agency Response ..................................................................................................... 45

Alternative and Additional Policy Considerations ................................................... 55

Adjusting Oklahoma’s Promise Scholarship to a “Last-Dollar” Model. ........... 55

Granting Eligibility for Undocumented Students ............................................ 56

Granting Eligibility for Justice-Involved Students ............................................ 57

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 3

LOFT Oversight Committee


Executive Summary Nearly 20 years ago, Oklahoma created a scholarship program with the goal of making college education accessible to more families. The construct was simple: students could sign up for the program as early as the eighth grade, and as long as they maintained acceptable grades and good behavior, the state would fulfil its promise of funding tuition at Oklahoma institutions of higher education.

Through this evaluation, the Legislative Office of Fiscal Transparency (LOFT) sought to determine the outcomes and cost benefit of Oklahoma’s Promise. LOFT examined how the tuition incentive contributes to the State’s workforce demands and economic output. LOFT also projected the future costs of funding Oklahoma’s Promise through FY30. This report is organized around five key findings:

Finding 1: Oklahoma’s Promise Recipients are Earning Critical Workforce Degrees and Remaining in Oklahoma. Between 2011-20, Oklahoma’s Promise assisted Oklahoma students in earning over 39,000 post-secondary credentials; the majority (76%) aligned with the State’s critical workforce demands. Oklahoma’s Promise is supporting over 4,000 graduates per year with the vast majority (85%) employed in-state after graduation. The return on investment for funding the scholarships is 9 years after graduation.

The return on investment for funding Oklahoma’s Promise scholarships is 9 years post-graduation

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 5 Finding 2: Oklahoma’s Promise Exceeds the Legislative Intent to Provide Post-Secondary Opportunities for Oklahoma Students. LOFT’s analysis confirms the primary recipients of Oklahoma’s Promise scholarships are students from race and ethnic minority populations, and students from rural communities. Female recipients have accounted for 65% percent of all post-secondary credentials awarded to scholarship recipients between 2011-2020 and rural students account for over 50% of scholarship recipients.

Finding 3: Trust Fund Reliance Allows Additional Savings and Appropriation Flexibility for the State Budget. Oklahoma’s Promise has an established trust fund dedicated to the program. LOFT’s analysis found by limiting the Trust Fund balance to no more than ten percent of the last completed fiscal year’s allocation, it would reduce reliance on General Revenue. A ten percent reserve balance would provide the State Regents financial security and offer policymakers more flexibility in the state budgeting process.

Finding 4: Tuition and Fees and Income Inflation Is Driving Up Program Costs. The average cost of tuition and fees has outpaced Oklahoma’s Promise scholarships, creating an affordability gap for Oklahoma’s Promise recipients. In 2020, the difference between the average Oklahoma’s Promise scholarship and average cost of tuition and fees was $2,524.

Income growth and inflation have impacted the eligible number of Oklahoma students able to meet the financial qualifications for Oklahoma’s Promise. The percentage of Oklahoma families with incomes under $50,000 has declined from 48 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2019. The median family income in Oklahoma has risen from $51,958 in 2010 to $68,358 in 2019, an increase of $16,400 or thirty-two percent. During the same period, the qualifying family income limit for Oklahoma’s Promise increased from $50,000 to $55,000 (10% increase).

Finding 5: Accessibility to Further Data Would Drive Better Evidence-Based Policy Decisions. LOFT found that the State Regents collect a greater level of detail and data regarding Oklahoma’s Promise than peer state programs. However, opportunities exist to gather further data to formulate evidence-based policy decisions on the future of Oklahoma’s Promise. Since the program’s inception in 1996, more than $63.8 million in scholarships have been awarded through private institutions without any data reporting requirements for academic outcomes. Oklahoma also lacks information about Oklahoma’s Promise graduates who leave the state and recipients who withdraw from the program.

LOFT estimates that Oklahoma’s Promise recipients will pay, on average, over $3,500 in general fees per year in FY2030 as opposed to $2,200 in general fees in FY2022. As fees are not covered under Oklahoma’s Promise, the increase will further create an affordability gap for recipients.


Summary of Policy Considerations and Agency Recommendations The Oklahoma State Legislature and State Regents may consider the following:

Policy Considerations: • Establish a residency requirement for Oklahoma’s Promise graduates.

• Reduce reliance on General Revenue by limiting the Trust Fund balance to no more than 10 percent of the last completed fiscal year’s allocation. If the fund were to exceed the ten percent limit, the excess funds would be rolled back into the General Revenue Fund (GRF).

• Revaluate legislative peer benchmarks against which Oklahoma tuition is compared.

• Require regular review of the scholarship’s income limit and formula, with a focus on adjusting for inflation.

• Modify the qualifying income eligibility for recipients to include family size.

• Require the collection and sharing of data from private institutions participating in Oklahoma’s Promise, including student performance metrics and student enrollment data.

Agency Recommendations: • The State Regents should collaborate with Oklahoma’s higher education

institutions to determine the primary factors contributing to low graduation rates among Oklahoma’s Promise recipients.

• The State Regents should seek to develop cooperative agreements with the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission (OESC) and surrounding state workforce agencies to track Oklahoma’s Promise recipients in the workforce outside of Oklahoma.

• The State Regents should work to conduct research into both the retention and graduation barriers of Oklahoma’s Promise recipients to identify challenges that prohibit recipients from earning post-secondary credentials.


Introduction

Oklahoma’s Promise Intent Created in 1992 by the Oklahoma State Legislature to help more Oklahoma families provide an affordable pathway for their children to earn post-secondary credentials, Oklahoma’s Promise, originally designated as the Oklahoma Higher Learning Access Program (OHLAP) allows eighth, ninth and tenth grade high school students from families with an income of $55,000 or less to earn a tuition scholarship.1

The State Regents report the goal of the Promise program is “to encourage more Oklahoma middle school and high school students with limited financial resources to aspire for college, prepare themselves academically in high school, and ultimately earn college degrees.” Statutory language further specifies that Oklahoma’s Promise should be a program “whereby a broader range of the general student population of this state will be prepared for success in postsecondary endeavors.”2

The Oklahoma’s Promise scholarship program provides complete in-state tuition costs of public post-secondary and vocational institutions within the state for up to five years. The program only covers tuition expenses, with students responsible for institutional fees and any other additional charges. Promise grant recipients must satisfy academic and conduct benchmarks to be eligible for tuition assistance (Appendix B, page 33).

Funding Oklahoma’s Promise Originally, the family income eligibility level was statutorily set at $24,000. Due to the eligibility and growing demand of the program, in 1999 the income limit was raised to $32,000 and then to $50,000 in 2000. The current $55,000 family income limit was set in 2017. The financial threshold for Oklahoma families will be raised to $60,000 beginning in Fall 2021.

Prior to receiving any program benefit in college, the federal adjusted gross income (AGI) of the student's parents (or the income of the student if the student is officially determined to be financially independent of their parents) may not exceed $100,000.3

1 70 O.S. § 2602 (OSCN 2020), Oklahoma Higher Learning Access Act 2 Ibid. 3 Oklahoma’s Promise | Annual Reports. (n.d.). OSRHE Oklahoma’s Promise. https://www.okhighered.org/okpromise/reports.shtml

Key questions: How does

Oklahoma’s Promise address Oklahoma’s critical state workforce needs?

To what extent can it be said Oklahoma’s Promise provides value for the investment?

What are the projected costs of Oklahoma’s Promise and the ensuing economic impacts through 2030?

https://www.okhighered.org/okpromise/reports.shtml


In order to fully fund Oklahoma’s Promise from a stable revenue source, in 2007 the Oklahoma State Legislature enacted SB820, creating a permanent, dedicated funding stream for Oklahoma’s Promise. By statute, the State Regents must provide a funding estimate for Oklahoma’s Promise to the State Board of Equalization (BOE) no later than November 1 of each year. The funding estimate is for the fiscal year that begins the following July 1. Once certified, the State sets aside that amount of funding for the program “off the top” before appropriations are made to any other programs.4 Factors for calculating the estimate include:

• Enrollment rates of 8th, 9th, and 10th grade students in the program

• Rate at which Oklahoma’s Promise students complete the high school requirements to be eligible for the scholarship

• High school to college-going rates

• Student enrollment patterns at colleges in Oklahoma

• Student persistence/award retention rates in college

• Number of college semester credit hours in which students enroll

• Tuition rates at each institution

• Estimated tuition increases for upcoming academic year5

On October 22, 2020, the State Regents announced their funding estimate for Oklahoma’s Promise in 2021-2022 as $69.4 million, a reduction of $3 million (4%) from the FY21 funding level of $72.4 million.6 In December 2020, the Oklahoma State Board of Equalization (BOE) approved the State Regents’ FY22 funding request.

4 Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education. (2017, December). FY17-18 Tuition Impact Analysis Report. http://www.osrhe.edu/studies-reports/tuition-impact/tuition-impact-analysis-17-18.pdf 5 Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education. (2020, October). October 22, 2020 Meeting Agenda. http://www.osrhe.edu/state-system/pdf/2020-10-22-State%20Regents%20Agenda.pdf 6 Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education. (2020, October). October 22, 2020 Meeting Agenda. http://www.osrhe.edu/state-system/pdf/2020-10-22-State%20Regents%20Agenda.pdf

In December 2020, the Oklahoma State Board of Equalization (BOE) approved the State Regents’ FY22 funding request of $69.4 million for Oklahoma’s Promise.

http://www.osrhe.edu/studies-reports/tuition-impact/tuition-impact-analysis-17-18.pdf

http://www.osrhe.edu/state-system/pdf/2020-10-22-State%20Regents%20Agenda.pdf


LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 9 Scholarship Funding Formula Students qualifying for Oklahoma’s Promise have their tuition paid through a scholarship to Oklahoma public two-year colleges or four-year universities.7 Students enrolled in certain training programs that meet requirements can also receive a scholarship at Oklahoma public technology centers. The program also allows for students attending an Oklahoma accredited private college or university to have a portion of their tuition covered, pursuant to Section 4103 of the Oklahoma Higher Learning Access Act.8

The Oklahoma’s Promise scholarship is not a pre-set amount; the scholarship amount depends upon the institution the student attends and the number of credit hours the student is enrolled per semester. The scholarship amount does not include the cost of other required fees, such as room and board expenses, books, or other expenses associated with college attendance. See Appendix D (page 35) for the 2020-21 scholarship rates for student recipients by institution.9

7 Please refer to Appendix C on page 34 for details on the program’s eligibility and scholarship awarding process. 8 70 O.S. § 2602 9 Oklahoma’s Promise | Annual Reports. (n.d.). OSRHE Oklahoma’s Promise. https://www.okhighered.org/okpromise/reports.shtml



Finding 1: Oklahoma’s Promise Recipients are Earning Critical Workforce Degrees and Remaining in Oklahoma

The Need to Build Oklahoma’s “Tomorrow Ready” Workforce Rapid changes in technology, education, workforce demographics and global competition have increased the demand for Oklahoma to have both an educated and skilled workforce. By 2030, more than 70 percent of jobs in Oklahoma will require some post-secondary education or training beyond high school.10 Overall, education attainment levels among Oklahoma’s workforce are insufficient to meet the growing technical and labor demands of the rapidly evolving job market. As highlighted in Chart 01, Oklahoma currently is behind the rest of the nation in the percentage of the workforce with an Associate’s Degree or higher (35% vs. 43%).

Chart 01: Oklahoma Education Attainment Rate/Skills Gap Comparison11 (Horizontal bar chart that compares the educational attainment rate of Oklahoma adults against the national average.)

Currently, Oklahoma stands in the bottom ten states with the lowest education attainment rate (Appendix E, page 36). Sixty-three percent of the 100 critical occupations identified through Oklahoma Works require some level of post-secondary education; however, only 26 percent of Oklahomans 25 and older have a bachelor’s degree or higher. The ability for Oklahomans to compete for critical jobs, grow the State’s workforce and boost economic prosperity relies in assuring companies and industry

10 Oklahoma Works. (2019, May). Oklahoma’s Talent Pipeline. https://oklahomaworks.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/OK-Talent-Pipeline-Report-2019v2.pdf 11 Lumina Foundation. (n.d.). A Stronger Nation: Learning Beyond High School Builds American Talent. https://www.luminafoundation.org/stronger-nation/report/2020/#state/OK

https://oklahomaworks.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/OK-Talent-Pipeline-Report-2019v2.pdf

https://www.luminafoundation.org/stronger-nation/report/2020/#state/OK

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 11 leaders they will have both an educated and skilled workforce to meet their demands. To accomplish this, Oklahoma will need to produce and retain college graduates.

Oklahoma’s Promise is Responding to 21st Century Workforce Demands Between 2011-20, OKPromise assisted Oklahoma students in earning over 39,000 post-secondary credentials; the majority (76%) aligned with the State’s critical workforce demands. Chart 02 depicts the alignment of OKPromise recipient degrees with the State’s workforce demands. Within this timeframe, over 30,000 post-secondary credentials conferred to OKPromise recipients were in academic fields aligned with the State’s critical workforce demands.

Chart 02: Percentage of Post-Secondary Credentials Conferred Aligned with State’s Critical Workforce Demands12 (Vertical bar chart that correlates the degrees conferred to Oklahoma’s Promise recipients with State’s workforce demands, green line represents the percent of degrees conferred aligned with critical workforce demands.)

OKPromise is supporting over 3,000 graduates a year, who are earning a wide range of degrees. The Coronavirus pandemic emphasized a critical demand for more nurses, doctors and health care professionals. Over the last decade, 15 percent of OKPromise recipients earned degrees in the field of health. Data reflects the majority of those graduates are remaining in Oklahoma. Ninety-two percent of the 3,101 OKPromise recipients who earned post-secondary credentials in health professions fields between 2014-2018 are still actively employed in Oklahoma. In 2020 alone, OKPromise financially assisted 718 Oklahoma students in earning credentials in the health professions field. The top credentials conferred to OKPromise recipients by field of study is illustrated in Chart 03.

12 Oklahoma Works. (2020, June). STATE OF OKLAHOMA 2020 WORKFORCE BRIEFING. https://oklahomaworks.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/State-Briefing-2020.pdf

https://oklahomaworks.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/State-Briefing-2020.pdf

https://oklahomaworks.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/State-Briefing-2020.pdf

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 12 Chart 03: Top 10 Fields of Study for Oklahoma’s Promise Graduates (2011-2020) (Vertical bar chart with corresponding icons illustrating the top fields of study.)

Analysis shows that 62% percent of all critical workforce degrees earned between 2011-2020 were conferred to female OKPromise recipients. In fact, female recipients have accounted for 65% percent of all post-secondary credentials awarded to OKPromise recipients between 2011-2020.

Residency of OKPromise Graduates Oklahoma is on target to experience a worker shortage of nearly 20,000 people by 2028.13 Not only will the State have to replenish the diminishing workforce but also produce and retain more graduates for future jobs. LOFT’s evaluation found the majority of graduates receiving OKPromise scholarships remain in Oklahoma after graduation.

13 Oklahoma Works. (2019b, October). Governor’s Council for Workforce and Economic Development Strategic Plan. https://oklahomaworks.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/GCWED-Strategic-Plan-2019-22-FINAL.pdf

https://oklahomaworks.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/GCWED-Strategic-Plan-2019-22-FINAL.pdf

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 13 Chart 04: Residency Status as of 2019 Comparison of Oklahoma Graduates (Vertical bar chart that compares residency status as of 2019 between Oklahoma Promise graduates and non-Oklahoma’s Promise graduates.)

College graduates have been moving out of Oklahoma, on net, every year since 2013. From 2013 to 2017, the last year for which detailed data is available, the average net outflow has been over 5,300 college graduates per year.14 OKPromise, on average, generates roughly 4,000 graduates per year for the State’s workforce; with the vast majority (85%) employed in-state after graduation. As OKPromise graduates maintain long-term residency in Oklahoma, more than their student peers, the program will assist the State in retaining recently skilled and educated graduates to fill critical job shortages. Not only will this assist employers in filling job shortages and advancing Oklahoma’s economy but also increase the program’s return on investment.

Return on Investment Between 2013-2018, OKPromise recipients received an average total scholarship of $18,188.76. To determine the State’s return on investment, LOFT examined the workforce salary difference between workers with a high school diploma and workers with a bachelor’s degree. Using the last quarter of the calendar year 2018, the post-graduation salary difference between the two groups was $13,067.31 ($19,020.00 vs. $32,087.31).

However, the overall Oklahoma workforce salary difference at that time among all demographics and industries was $26,196 ($46,812.00 vs. $73,008.00).15 Assuming that difference was consumed in full on goods and services subject to the sales tax and both types of workers paid income tax according to tax rates as single, the college graduate paid $3,966.06 more in state taxes. Educational attainment correlates to higher-wage occupations which contribute more in taxes over the course of a career. Further graduates would contribute more to the State’s economy, increasing the program’s return on investment.

14 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. (2019, June 7). A Closer Look at Oklahoma’s Recent “Brain Drain.” https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/oke/articles/2019/2q-closer-look-oklahoma-brain-drain 15 United States Census Bureau. (2021, January 25). LED Extraction Tool — Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI). https://ledextract.ces.census.gov/static/data.html

https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/oke/articles/2019/2q-closer-look-oklahoma-brain-drain

https://ledextract.ces.census.gov/static/data.html

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 14 Based on the increased tax revenue generated by a college-graduated OKPromise recipient, the State would see a direct return on investment per graduate within approximately 4.6 years. However, after adjusting for the fact that only 82 percent of that year’s graduating class was employed in Oklahoma, the return on investment is extended by one year to about 5.6 years. The return on investment was further adjusted to account for the overall 5-year graduation rate of 43 percent. With all adjustments, the overall program’s return on investment per graduate is nearly nine years.

Oklahoma’s return on investment could be improved by increasing the percentage of program recipients that graduate and by increasing the number of recipients who become employed in Oklahoma post-graduation.

To reduce out-of-state migration, Oklahoma could consider enacting a post-graduation requirement or creating an incentive for graduates to remain in state. An example of an incentive program can be found in Connecticut, which provides a $500 per year tax credit for five years after graduation.16 If Oklahoma were to adopt a similar incentive, and the incentive yielded an increase in the in-state post-graduation employment and 5-year graduation rate, from 82 to 92 percent and from 43 to 53 percent respectively, the State’s ROI would improve by about a year. Such increase is projected to improve revenues by $1.8M per year ($4.3M in revenue increase vs. $2.5M tax credit cost).

Policy Consideration The Legislature may consider the following policy changes:

Enhance the in-state post-graduation employment and overall graduation ratios by establishing a residency requirement for Oklahoma’s Promise graduates or by enacting a tax incentive for Oklahoma’s Promise graduates to seek in-state employment.

• 70 O.S. § 2605 – Establish a residency requirement for Oklahoma’s Promise graduates to help reduce and reverse the net out-migration of Oklahomans with high levels of educational attainment. Residency duration could match scholarship award limit of five years (70 O.S. § 2604) or however many years the scholarship was used to obtain the awarded post-secondary credential. As a point of comparison, The New York State Excelsior Scholarship, New York’s version of Oklahoma’s Promise, has a post-graduation residency requirement for recipients to live and work, if employed, in New York State for the same number of years that the Excelsior Scholarship was received. Failure to meet this requirement results in the value of the award being converted to a student loan.17

• 68 O.S. § 2357 – create a new tax credit for OKPromise graduates employed in the State. Residency duration could match scholarship award limit of five years (70 O.S. § 2604) or however many years the scholarship was used to obtain the awarded post-secondary credential.

16 12-704f (2019, January 1), General Statutes of Connecticut https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_229.htm#sec_12-704f 17 Section 669-H Excelsior Scholarship. (2021, January 9). NY State Senate. https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/EDN/669-H

https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_229.htm#sec_12-704f

https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_229.htm#sec_12-704f

https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/EDN/669-H


Finding 2: Oklahoma’s Promise Exceeds the Legislative Intent to Provide Post-Secondary Opportunities for Oklahoma Students. Data reported in the annual Oklahoma's Promise (OKPromise) Year-End Reports was helpful in analyzing the extent to which Oklahoma’s Promise, in accordance with the statutory language, has worked to provide post-secondary education opportunities to a “broader range of the general student population of this state.”18

Race and Ethnicity The student enrollment of OKPromise cohorts has become more diverse over time. Until 2014, White students consistently comprised at least 50% of annual OKPromise scholarship recipients. As Figure 01 highlights, as of 2019 nearly 50% of all OKPromise high school graduates are of diverse racial and ethnic backgrounds.

Figure 01: Diversity of OKPromise Students (2000-2019) (Figure illustrates the change in both ethnic and racial minority students over time by cohort.)

18 70 O.S. § 2602

Statutory language specifies that Oklahoma’s Promise should be a program “whereby a broader range of the general student population of this state will be prepared for success in postsecondary endeavors.”


Over nearly the last 20 years, the Hispanic demographic has experienced the largest growth in representation within OKPromise. Since 2000, enrollment of Hispanic students in OKPromise has increased by 10%. In comparison, Black students are the only student demographic that has not statistically experienced enrollment growth over the last 20 years, remaining at 9% of all OKPromise recipients.19 According to the Oklahoma State Department of Education (OSDE), Black students account for 8.39% of the total enrollment of students in Oklahoma’s public education system in the 2019-20 academic school year.20 Chart 05 details the enrollment demographics comparison of the 2019-20 academic school year enrollment from OSDE and the 2019-20 cohort of OKPromise recipients.

Chart 05: Enrollment by Student Demographics Comparison 2019-2021(Horizontal bar chart that compares student enrollment by demographics between Oklahoma’s Promise recipients and within Oklahoma’s K-12 education system for 2019-20.)

19 Please refer to Appendix F on page 37 for full breakdown of student demographic by fiscal year. 20 OSDE Office of Accreditation; OSDE Data & Information Systems (Oct. 2019). Found at: https://sde.ok.gov/sites/default/files/documents/files/Fast%20Facts%20February%202020.pdf 21 Ibid.

Oklahoma’s Promise has seen the largest enrollment growth from the Hispanic demographic.

https://sde.ok.gov/sites/default/files/documents/files/Fast%20Facts%20February%202020.pdf

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 17 Gender LOFT’s analysis of OKPromise enrollment and completion data reveals that female recipients outpace male students in OKPromise. Since 2000, female high school students have made up 60% of recipients in each OKPromise cohort. Chart 06 displays the gender composition of OKPromise high school graduates over the last 10 years.

Chart 06: Gender Composition of OKPromise High School Graduates (FY10-19) (Mirror bar chart that compares Oklahoma’s Promise recipients by gender.)

According to OSDE, female students represent 49% of the total enrollment of students in Oklahoma’s public education system in the 2019-20 academic school year.22

Geographic Composition

The geographic trends of student enrollment in OKPromise is another element to identify and understand the effectiveness of OKPromise. The average degree attainment rate among rural counties in Oklahoma is only 27%.23 OKPromise appears to be addressing the rural education gap by connecting students from rural communities with a pathway to earn post-secondary credentials. Figure 02 displays the geographic breakdown of OSDE enrollment and OKPromise recipients for the 2018-19 academic school year.

22 OSDE Office of Accreditation; OSDE Data & Information Systems (Oct. 2019). Found at: https://sde.ok.gov/sites/default/files/documents/files/Fast%20Facts%20February%202020.pdf 23 Please refer to Appendix G on page 38 for degree attainment rates for all 77 counties in Oklahoma.

Since 2000, female students have consistently accounted for nearly 60% of recipients in each Oklahoma’s Promise cohort.

https://sde.ok.gov/sites/default/files/documents/files/Fast%20Facts%20February%202020.pdf

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 18 Figure 02: Geographic Composition Comparison of Oklahoma Students (Figure compares student enrollment by geography between Oklahoma’s Promise recipients and within Oklahoma’s K-12 education system for 2018-19.)

Source: Legislative Office of Fiscal Transparency. In the annual Oklahoma's Promise Year-End Reports, urban is defined as the “5 Most Populous Counties”, consisting of Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Canadian, and Comanche counties. 24 OSDE rural enrollment retrieved from 2018-19 Why Rural Matters Report. 25

Rural students are highly represented in OKPromise despite rural students making up less than a third of the enrollment in Oklahoma public schools. Rural students have predominately been recipients of OKPromise scholarships over the last twenty years, accounting for over 60% of annual recipients.

OKPromise Graduation Rates Analyzing enrollment and completion data, LOFT recognized a disparity in the percentage of OKPromise recipients who graduated with post-secondary credentials within the statutory five-year limit for the scholarship. Between 2004 and 2014, the average 5-year graduation rate for OKPromise recipients was only 41%. Since 2004, the 5-year graduation rate never surpassed 43%; indicating more than half of OKPromise recipients are not graduating within the 5-year statutory limit.

In 2018, the Task Force on the Future of Higher Education identified retention and graduation rates as a key challenge for Oklahoma’s public higher education system. As the Task Force stated,

24 Oklahoma’s Promise | Annual Reports. (n.d.). OSRHE Oklahoma’s Promise. https://www.okhighered.org/okpromise/reports.shtml 25 The Rural School and Community Trust and Our Partners: College Board and the School Superintendents Association (AASA). (2019, November). Why Rural Matters 2018-2019. http://www.ruraledu.org/WhyRuralMatters.pdf


http://www.ruraledu.org/WhyRuralMatters.pdf


“There is a cost associated with every student who begins a college program but is slow to or fails to complete the program. The cost is to the institution, but it is also to the state and workforce needs.”26

On December 6, 2017, the Task Force unanimously voted to approve a recommendation on improving both retention and graduation rates:

“The State Regents should require that every institution utilize a predictive analytics data program to aid in enrollment strategies and improve student retention and graduation rates.”

While OKPromise recipients consistently have higher 5-year graduation rates than their student peers (41% vs 33%), further research is needed to understand why OKPromise recipients fail to graduate within the statutory timeframe.

Nationally, Oklahoma’s Promise is just one of two state-subsidized “Promise” scholarship programs that offer student assistance up to five years. 27 The other is New York’s Excelsior Scholarship. The average five-year graduation rate for Excelsior recipients is 30%.28 Most similar state scholarship programs are based on either a limited number of semesters or a maximum of two years. The five-year completion window is an advantage and benefit that Oklahoma’s students have over college students across the country.

26 Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education. (2018, February). Report on the Future of Higher Education. https://okhighered.org/future/docs/final-report.pdf 27 Jones, T., & Berger, K. (2018). A PROMISE FULFILLED: A Framework for Equitable Free College Programs. The Education Trust. http://edtrustmain.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/05155636/A-Promise-Fulfilled-A-Framework-for-Equitable-Free-College-Programs-9.6-18.pdf 28 System Retention and Graduation Rates of Full-time First-time Freshmen in Associate Programs by Year of Entry:* (cuny.edu)

Between 2004 and 2014, the average 5-year graduation rate for Oklahoma’s Promise recipients was only 41%.

https://okhighered.org/future/docs/final-report.pdf

http://edtrustmain.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/05155636/A-Promise-Fulfilled-A-Framework-for-Equitable-Free-College-Programs-9.6-18.pdf

http://edtrustmain.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/05155636/A-Promise-Fulfilled-A-Framework-for-Equitable-Free-College-Programs-9.6-18.pdf

http://www.cuny.edu/irdatabook/rpts2_AY_current/RTGS_0001_FT_FTFR_ASSOC_TOT_UNIV.rpt.pdf

http://www.cuny.edu/irdatabook/rpts2_AY_current/RTGS_0001_FT_FTFR_ASSOC_TOT_UNIV.rpt.pdf

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 20 Peer Promise Program Comparison

Currently, there are fourteen active state-funded “Promise” scholarships across the nation. The Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education consider Indiana’s 21st Century Scholars Program and Washington state’s College Bound Scholarship the most comparable to OKPromise. LOFT sought to evaluate these two peer programs, but due to lack of information and data from Indiana, the comparison is limited to Washington’s College Bound Scholarship. Table 01 highlights program details and performance metrics between the two scholarship programs.

Table 01: Peer State Promise Scholarship Program Comparison29 (Table compares Oklahoma’s Promise with Washington’s College Bound Promise Scholarship on a variety of metrics.)

In summary, demographic and geographic enrollment and performance data confirms that OKPromise has been both effective and efficient in meeting the program’s legislative intent of providing students from families of diverse backgrounds, communities and socio-economic status with a pathway to post-secondary education.

Recommendation The State Regents should heed the recommendation from the Task Force on Higher Education and collaborate with Oklahoma’s institutions to determine the primary factors contributing to low graduation rates among OKPromise recipients. These specific findings could assist in restructuring policies to better serve the academic and financial needs of OKPromise recipients, increase graduation rates and better serve the State’s workforce demands.

29 Washington Student Achievement Council. (2019). College Bound | WSAC. https://wsac.wa.gov/college-bound

https://wsac.wa.gov/college-bound


Finding 3: Trust Fund Reliance Allows Additional Savings and Appropriation Flexibility for the State Budget. Oklahoma’s Promise has an established trust fund dedicated to the program. $20.8 million was budgeted from Trust Fund between FY11-21. The program’s balance at the end of FY20 was $22.6 million; which accounted for 29 percent of the OKPromise’s funding for FY20. Table 02 shows the State Regent’s plan to “use available trust fund balances in FY2023 and FY2024 to keep General Revenue funding needs under $70 million and to target a reserve fund balance of approximately ten percent by the end of FY2024.”30

Table 02: Oklahoma’s Promise Funding Sources by Fiscal Year (FY11-24) (Table shows the Trust Fund balance and utilization between FY11-24 Estimated.)

When the OSRHE have utilized funds budgeted from the Trust Fund, the amount, on average, accounts for six percent of the funding for the fiscal year. Utilizing available funds from the trust account will reduce dependence on General Revenue funding and provide the State Legislature more revenue to be allocated to state agencies and other core government services.

30 Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education. (2020, October). October 22, 2020 Meeting Agenda. http://www.osrhe.edu/state-system/pdf/2020-10-22-State%20Regents%20Agenda.pdf



Policy Consideration

The Legislature may consider the following policy change:

Reduce reliance on General Revenue Fund (GRF)

• 70 O.S. § 3953.1 – create new policy to limit Trust Fund balance to ensure the fund does not exceed an amount equal to 10 percent of the last completed fiscal year’s allocation. If the fund were to exceed the ten percent limit, the excess funds would be rolled back into the General Revenue Fund (GRF).

A ten percent trust fund balance would allow the OSRHE financial security in case of an enrollment spike in the program.31 As the OSRHE are strategically planning to utilize the Trust Fund to reach a ten percent balance by FY24, this policy could go into effect beginning in FY24. This policy could be reevaluated every five years.

The balance of the program’s Trust Fund should also be reported in the State Board of Equalization’s (BOE) annual December meeting before the funding level for Oklahoma’s Promise is voted on and confirmed for the upcoming fiscal year.

31 A ten percent threshold for FY22 would equate to $6.9 million which, based on the FY19 average OKPromise scholarship, could provide an additional 1,601 recipients a scholarship for one year or 320 recipients scholarships for five years.


Finding 4. Tuition and Fees and Income Inflation Is Driving Up Program Costs.

Projected Costs to Fund OKPromise through 2030 The projected costs for OKPromise for the next ten fiscal years sums to approximately $719 million, using data provided by OSRHE on tuition cost trends, participation in the program, and institute attendance from FY2008 to FY2021.32 These figures align with OSRHE internal projections on the annual cost of the program through FY2024, as referenced in Table 02. It should be noted that since OKPromise covers tuition only, Chart 07 does not include the growth of fees (see Chart 09 for a projection of fees paid by OKPromise recipients over the same period).

Per statute, the State Regents must make a reasonable effort to “effect a proportionate increase in the availability of need-based student financial aid” to include OKPromise awards.33 The increasing cost of tuition and fees directly correlates with the funding levels of OKPromise. The Legislature should be apprised of the applicable funding levels for the long-term support of OKPromise.

Chart 07: Projected Annual and Cumulative Cost of OKPromise through FY2030 (Bar and line chart comparing yearly vs. 10-year cumulative projected cost.)

32 To see the full version of this worksheet, please refer to Appendix I on page 40. 33 70 O.S. § 3218.8

The projected costs for Oklahoma’s Promise for the next ten fiscal years sums to approximately $719 million.

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 24 Tuition and Fees Inflation Creates an Increasing Affordability Gap for Oklahoma Promise Recipients

The State Regents were granted tuition-setting authority for the entire public higher education system by the State Legislature via HB1748 in 2003.34 Per statutory requirement (70 O.S. § 3218.8), the State Regents must keep resident and nonresident tuition and mandatory fees below state-supported institutions under the Big Twelve Conference and similar public four-year and two-year institutions in surrounding and other states.

The average cost of tuition and fees for resident undergraduate students has risen from $3,913 in 2008 to $6,860 in 2020, an increase of $2,947 or 75%. Between the same time period, the average OKPromise scholarship increased from $2,540 to $4,335.37, an increase of $1,795 or 71%. In 2020, the difference between the average OKPromise scholarship and average cost of tuition and fees was $2,524 (See Chart 08).

Chart 08: Average Tuition and Fees for Resident Undergraduate Students Compared with Average OKPromise Scholarship (FY08-20) (Vertical bar chart illustrating the affordability gap as driven by increasing tuition and fees.)

Source: Legislative Office of Fiscal Transparency analysis, based upon data in OSRHE Tuition Impact Analysis Annual Reports. 35 Average cost of tuition and fees represented is valued at the resident undergraduate rate for tuition and mandatory fees for 30 credit hours.

34 Please refer to Appendix H on page 39 for outline of tuition and fees setting authority and process. 35 Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education. (n.d.). OSRHE Tuition Impact Analysis Annual Reports. http://www.osrhe.edu/studies-reports/fiscal.shtml

http://www.osrhe.edu/studies-reports/fiscal.shtml

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 25 As illustrated in Chart 08, the average OKPromise scholarship in FY20 reflects the cost of tuition and fees from FY09. But since the OKPromise scholarship is restricted to only cover tuition and not fees, the average cost of tuition and fees has outpaced the OKPromise scholarship, creating an affordability gap for OKPromise recipients.

Increase in Fees Fees constitute a growing cost to OKPromise program participants. LOFT estimates that OKPromise students will pay, on average, over $3,500 in general fees per year in FY2030 as opposed to $2,200 in general fees in FY2022 (See Chart 09), indicating year-over-year growth of 6.75%. This projection does not include fees for specific programs. This projection is based on data provided by OSRHE, encompassing fee trends, participation in the program, and institute attendance from FY2008 to FY2021.36 In FY30, fees will account for nearly 30% of the total cost of attendance for OKPromise recipients.

Chart 09: Total Projected Fees per OKPromise Student per Year (Vertical bar chart indicating an average growth of yearly cost of fees.)

Nine of the fourteen active, state-funded “Promise” scholarships programs (64%) pay for mandatory and other institutional fees to recipients.

36 To see the full version of this worksheet, please refer to Appendix I on page 40.

LOFT estimates that Oklahoma’s Promise students will pay, on average, over $3,500 in general fees per year in FY30.

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 26 Policy Consideration The Legislature may consider the following policy change:

Limit the increase on tuition prices at Oklahoma’s public institutions of higher education

• 70 O.S. § 3218.8 – Reevaluate legislative peer benchmark against which Oklahoma tuition is compared.

Income Growth and Inflation Significantly Impacts Program Eligibility for Students. Income growth and inflation have impacted the eligible number of Oklahoma students able to meet the financial qualifications for OKPromise. The percentage of Oklahoma families with incomes under $50,000 has declined from 48 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2019. In 2019, the percentage of Oklahoma families with income under $75,000 was less than the percentage of families with income under $50,000 in 2000.

Chart 10: Oklahoma Median Family Income Percent of Families under $50k, $75k and $100k (Line chart showing the percentage of Oklahoma families earning $50k, $75k, and $100k on a yearly basis.)

The median family income in Oklahoma has risen from $51,958 in 2010 to $68,358 in 2019, an increase of $16,400, or thirty-two percent. During the same period, the qualifying family income limit for OKPromise increased from $50,000 to $55,000 (10% increase). While the income limit is scheduled to increase to $60,000 beginning in the Fall of 2021, the qualifying limit will still be $8,358 behind the 2019 median family income for Oklahoma; a twelve percent difference. Since 2007, as illustrated in Chart 11, the family median income has exceeded the OKPromise scholarship limit, restricting the number of Oklahoma students who qualify as income continues to rise.

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 27 Chart 11: Family Median Income and Oklahoma’s Promise Scholarship Comparison (Vertical bar chart with secondary area chart showing the Oklahoma’s Promise family income limit compared with the median family income by year.)

Chart 12 summarizes the trends of income growth in relation to the cost of tuition and fees among the public institutions of higher education in the State between FY08-FY19. Data indicates that the overall growth of educational costs outpaces median income growth by threefold.

Chart 12: Family Median Income vs. Oklahoma Higher Education Cost Growth (Vertical bar chart demonstrating a threefold gap in the growth of the cost of higher education in comparison to median income)

Family Size vs. Qualifying Income Level OKPromise uses a flat income level that is not adjustable for family size. As data is not captured for families that don’t meet eligibility, LOFT could not determine if family size restricts access to the

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 28 program. However, of the fourteen peer scholarship programs, only five, including Oklahoma, have family income limits for students.37

Indiana, Maryland and Washington adjust income limits to family size. SoonerCare, Oklahoma’s Medicaid program, is also based on family size and its current threshold for the family of four mirrors OKPromise’s income limit.

There are other examples of federal student loan programs, state programs and similar peer state scholarships that provide a framework to adjust income eligibility based on family size, if Oklahoma policymakers choose to pursue a change. Eligibility for the two largest federal student aid programs, the Pell Grant and Stafford Student Loan, are determined by a complex formula that defines financial need on the basis of income and family size.

Chart 13 highlights the difference in scholarship eligibility among peer state “Promise” scholarships.

Chart 13: Peer State Scholarship Income Limits by Family Size (Vertical bar chart and line chart indicates increase of the household income eligibility limit based on the family size.)

Policy Consideration The Legislature may consider the following policy changes:

Regularly review scholarship’s income limit and formula

• 70 O.S. § 2605 – create policy to reevaluate income limit for inflation, as measured by the percentage increase, if any, from the preceding fiscal year in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor.

• 70 O.S. § 2605 – create policy to modify the qualifying income eligibility for recipients to include family size.

37 Please refer to Appendix J on page 42 for comparison on peer state Promise programs.


Finding 5: Accessibility to Further Data Would Drive Better Evidence-Based Policy Decisions.

LOFT’s evaluation found the State Regents collect a greater level of detail and data regarding Oklahoma’s Promise than peer state programs. However, opportunities exist to gather further data to formulate evidence-based policy decisions on the future of OKPromise and their recipients. The following section outlines opportunities to expand and improve OKPromise.

Scholarship Performance Measures and Outcomes are Not Reported from Private Institutions. Since the program’s inception in 1996, more than $63.8 million in scholarships have been awarded through private and proprietary institutions.

Currently, only public institutions are required to report data on OKPromise recipients. The lack of data from both private independent and for-profit institutions limits the ability to determine the program’s full return on investment. LOFT was unable to draw conclusions regarding the effectiveness of allocated scholarship funds for scholarship recipients at these respective institutions nor include these funds in their analysis of the return on investment.

As of the writing of this report, no cooperative agreement or memorandum of understanding (MOU) is active between private institutions and the OSRHE to share data related to OKPromise.

Collecting and sharing data for policy analysis and program evaluation purposes can improve evidence-based data available to state leaders as they determine the best policies to produce the greatest benefits for the State. Privacy concerns could be addressed by requiring the reporting of quantitative, aggregate data to protect personally identifiable information (PII).

Policy Consideration The Legislature may consider the following policy change:

Facilitate the collection and sharing of data from private institutions.

• OAR 610:25-23-8. – Establish new requirement for State Regents to enter into cooperative agreement with private institutions participating in Oklahoma’s Promise to report performance metrics and student enrollment data yearly to the State Regents.

LOFT’s evaluation found that the level of detail and data the State Regents collect on Oklahoma’s Promise is more detailed than that collected by Promise scholarship programs in peer states.

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 30 Net Migration Outflow of Oklahoma Promise Recipients Oklahoma also lacks information about OKPromise recipients who graduate with post-secondary credentials and leave the state. Per the residency data analyzed, on average, nearly 15% of OKPromise recipients who earn credentials leave the state or are not currently working. The State loses its return on investment when OKPromise recipients leave the State post-graduation. Their education, skills and abilities assist another state’s workforce and Oklahoma never recovers their return for investing in their education and future. Being able to track OKPromise graduates outside the State could provide further context and motives for leaving the State and forecast patterns of migration outflows. Key metrics to identify and track are the states recipients are moving to and the industries where they are employed.

Recommendation The State Regents should aim to develop cooperative agreements with the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission (OESC) and surrounding state workforce agencies to track OKPromise recipients in the workforce outside of Oklahoma. This data could identify motives or other underlying trends that could assist Oklahoma’s workforce and the State Legislature in retaining newly educated and equipped OKPromise graduates.

Further Data Needs to be Collected on Recipients who Fail to Earn Post-Secondary Credentials There is a cost associated with every OKPromise recipient who enters the program and fails to earn post-secondary credentials. Without post-secondary credentials, college dropouts are less qualified to compete for employment opportunities with higher wages. The State’s contribution to the unfinished education becomes a sunk cost and the program’s overall return on investment is delayed because it is spread over a smaller population of graduates.

More data needs to be collected and reported on the number of OKPromise recipients who fail to persist in their academic journey and why. This data would assist the State Regents in identifying potential warning signs of retention and graduation challenges and develop intervention strategies to deter withdrawals from the program. Further data also needs to be collected on the financial investment into these students, as those who fail to complete the program negatively impact the program’s intended legislative purpose and overall return on investment to the State.

Recommendation The State Regents should work to conduct research into both the retention and graduation barriers of OKPromise recipients to identify challenges that prohibit recipients from earning post-secondary credentials.


About the Legislative Office of Fiscal Transparency

Mission To assist the Oklahoma Legislature in making informed, data-driven decisions that will serve the citizens of Oklahoma by ensuring accountability in state government, efficient use of resources, and effective programs and services.

Vision LOFT will provide timely, objective, factual, non-partisan, and easily understood information to facilitate informed decision-making and to ensure government spending is efficient and transparent, adds value, and delivers intended outcomes. LOFT will analyze performance outcomes, identify programmatic and operational improvements, identify duplications of services across state entities, and examine the efficacy of expenditures to an entity’s mission. LOFT strives to become a foundational resource to assist the State Legislature’s work, serving as a partner to both state governmental entities and lawmakers, with a shared goal of improving state government.

Authority With the passage of SB1 during the 2019 legislative session, LOFT has statutory authority to examine and evaluate the finances and operations of all departments, agencies, and institutions of Oklahoma and all of its political subdivisions.

Created to assist the Legislature in performing its duties, LOFT’s operations are overseen by a legislative committee. The 14-member Legislative Oversight Committee (LOC) is appointed by the Speaker of the House and Senate Pro Tempore, and receives LOFT’s reports of findings.

The LOC may identify specific agency programs, activities, or functions for LOFT to evaluate. LOFT may further submit recommendations for statutory changes identified as having the ability to improve government effectiveness and efficiency.


Appendices Appendix A. Methodology

Oklahoma Constitution, Statutes and Agency Policies LOFT incorporated legal research methodology for a detailed analysis of state laws and governing policies found in various sources (constitution, statutes and administrative rules) to assist with the legislative history of Oklahoma’s Promise, funding process, program’s eligibility, requirements and policy considerations.

Post-Secondary Credentials Aligned with Critical Workforce Demands Data received from the State Regents was statistically correlated with the top 100 critical occupations, their required level of education and industry sector from Oklahoma Work’s 2020-22 Critical Occupations list to analyze Oklahoma’s Promise impact on addressing the State’s critical workforce demands.

Return on Investment LOFT utilized the U.S. Census Bureau workforce data for the 4th quarter of CY2018 by education for employees on the full-quarter employment. LOFT calculated the difference between "High school or equivalent, no college" and "Bachelor's degree or advanced degree". A simplified taxable liability based on income and sales tax only was assumed for each group’s salary average, the difference of which was used as a denominator in dividing OKPromise scholarship average as of 2018, resulting in number years when the difference in taxes due to higher revenue would repay the OKPromise’s scholarship received.

Analysis of Oklahoma’s Promise Legislative Intent LOFT conducted a pooled time-series analysis from data on scholarship recipients’ enrollment and demographics to measure the variation in the gender, demographics and geographic composition of scholarship recipients.

Tuition and Fees Analysis The projected cost analysis of funding Oklahoma’s Promise through FY30 was analyzed using longitudinal data provided by the OSRHE on tuition and fees cost trends, participation in the program, and institutional attendance from FY2008 to FY2021.

Income Inflation Analysis Using longitudinal income data from the U.S. Census Bureau, LOFT conducted a time series analysis to measure the variation in median family income levels for Oklahoma families at three different income rates: $50k, $75k and $100k. The contents of this report were discussed with the Chancellor of the Oklahoma State System of Higher Education and State Regents staff throughout the evaluation process. Additionally, sections of this report were shared with the State Regents for purposes of confirming accuracy. It is the purpose of LOFT to provide both accurate and objective information: this report has been reviewed by LOFT staff outside of the project team to ensure accuracy, neutrality, and significance.


Appendix B. Oklahoma’s Promise Student Requirements 1. The family income of the student's parents may not exceed $55,000 at the time of enrollment

in the eighth-, ninth- or 10th grade. In addition, prior to receiving any program benefit in college, the federal adjusted gross income (AGI) of the student's parents (or the income of the student if the student is officially determined to be financially independent of their parents) may not exceed $100,000. Each year in college Oklahoma's Promise students will be required to complete a Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), which will be used to determine whether the federal adjusted gross income exceeds $100,000. For any year that the income exceeds $100,000, the student will not be eligible to receive the program benefit.

2. Take 17 units of required high school courses to help get ready for college.

3. Make a cumulative 2.50 GPA for all courses in grades 9-12.

4. Make a cumulative 2.50 GPA or better in the 17-unit OK Promise core curriculum.

5. Do your homework.

6. Don't skip school.

7. Don't abuse drugs or alcohol.

8. Don't commit criminal or delinquent acts.

9. Meet with a teacher, counselor or principal to go over your schoolwork and records.

10. Provide information when requested.

11. Apply for other financial aid during your senior year of high school.

12. Take part in Oklahoma's Promise activities that will prepare you for college.

13. The student must be a U.S. citizen or lawfully present in the United States at the time they enroll in college in order to receive the scholarship.38

38 Oklahoma's Promise Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education (2021 February). Student Requirements https://www.okhighered.org/okpromise/student-requirements.shtml

https://www.okhighered.org/okpromise/student-requirements.shtml


Appendix C. Oklahoma’s Promise Eligibility and Scholarship Process

Figure 03: OKPromise Participation Steps (Flow chart depicting steps from the eligibility to graduation.)


Appendix D. Oklahoma’s Promise 2020-21 Scholarship Rates

Exhibit 01: Scholarship Rates (Excerpt depicting scholarship rates for the 2020-21 academic year.)

Source. OSRHE


Appendix E. State Comparison Education Attainment Rate

Figure 04: National Attainment Rate (Map comparing states by their average attainment rate.)

Source: Legislative Office of Fiscal Transparency’s creation based on data available from Lumina Foundation.


Appendix F. Diversity of OKPromise Students (2000-2019)

Table 03: High school graduates demographics (Table depicts demographic breakdown of graduates by race and ethnicity.)

Source: Legislative Office of Fiscal Transparency’s creation based upon data available in Oklahoma’s Promise Annual Reports (FY’00-’19).

High School Graduation

YearWhite Black

Native American

Hispanic AsianTwo or More Races

Unknown

2000 70% 9% 14% 5% 2%2001 62% 13% 14% 4% 3% 4%2002 64% 9% 15% 5% 3% 4%2003 67% 8% 15% 4% 2% 4%2004 67% 9% 15% 4% 2% 3%2005 68% 8% 13% 5% 2% 4%2006 68% 8% 12% 6% 3% 4%2007 65% 8% 12% 6% 3% 6%2008 62% 9% 11% 7% 3% 8%2009 58% 8% 13% 8% 3% 10%2010 57% 9% 14% 8% 3% 9%2011 55% 9% 14% 9% 2% 9%2012 52% 11% 13% 9% 3% 3% 9%2013 52% 10% 13% 10% 4% 4% 7%2014 49% 9% 14% 12% 4% 4% 8%2015 47% 9% 14% 12% 4% 5% 9%2016 45% 9% 14% 13% 3% 5% 11%2017 44% 9% 13% 14% 4% 6% 10%2018 42% 9% 14% 14% 4% 7% 10%2019 41% 9% 14% 15% 4% 7% 10%


Appendix G. Degree Attainment Rates by County in Oklahoma

Figure 05: Oklahoma Attainment Rate (Map comparing counties by their average educational attainment rate in FY20.)

Source: Legislative Office of Fiscal Transparency’s creation based on data retrieved from the Lumina Foundation. Degree attainment is shown here as the percentage of people ages 25-64 with at least an associate degree.


Appendix H. Tuition Setting Authority and Process

Figure 06: Tuition and Fees (Flow chart depicting steps from the eligibility to graduation.)

Source: Legislative Office of Fiscal Transparency’s creation based on Oklahoma Constitution and Statutes. *Special fees charged for instruction and academic services in addition to tuition and mandatory fees.


Appendix I. Growth in Tuition and Fees over Time

Table 04: FY08-21 Tuition Growth (Table depicts tuition increase by the public institution.)

Institution FY2008 Tuition

FY2021 Tuition

Total % Change

Average Annual Change

University of Oklahoma $108.70 $159.60 46.83% 3.55% Oklahoma State University $119.50 $178.55 49.41% 3.75% University of Central Oklahoma $110.50 $222.85 101.67% 7.71% East Central University $88.74 $188.25 112.14% 8.51% Northeastern State University $96.50 $197.10 104.25% 7.91% Northwestern Oklahoma State University $104.25 $227.00 117.75% 8.93% Rogers State University $82.75 $152.00 83.69% 6.35% Southeastern Oklahoma State University $108.30 $208.00 92.06% 6.98% Southwestern Oklahoma State University $100.00 $212.25 112.25% 8.52% Cameron University $85.70 $158.00 84.36% 6.40% Langston University $80.30 $144.74 80.25% 6.09% Oklahoma Panhandle State University $83.00 $154.00 85.54% 6.49% University of Science and Arts of Oklahoma $96.00 $213.00 121.88% 9.25% Carl Albert State College $47.50 $91.25 92.11% 6.99% Connors State College $60.45 $100.00 65.43% 4.96% Eastern Oklahoma State College $68.30 $115.43 69.00% 5.24% Murray State College $74.00 $140.00 89.19% 6.77% Northeastern Oklahoma A&M College $52.70 $99.00 87.86% 6.67% Northern Oklahoma College $49.25 $107.50 118.27% 8.97% Oklahoma City Community College $54.55 $100.84 84.86% 6.44% Redlands Community College $88.00 $154.84 75.95% 5.76% Rose State College $59.95 $125.95 110.09% 8.35% Seminole State College $52.50 $104.00 98.10% 7.44% Tulsa Community College $57.50 $112.55 95.74% 7.26% Western Oklahoma State College $51.50 $103.15 100.29% 7.61%

Source: OSRHE Tuition Impact Analysis Reports

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 41 Table 05: FY08-21 Fees Growth (Table depicts fees increase by the public institution.)

Institution FY2008 Fees

FY2021 Fees

Total % Change

Average Annual Change

University of Oklahoma $ 78.20 $ 142.48 82% 6.24% Oklahoma State University $ 63.54 $ 122.05 92% 6.99% University of Central Oklahoma $ 18.05 $ 37.70 109% 8.26% East Central University $ 39.30 $ 50.77 29% 2.21% Northeastern State University $ 30.10 $ 33.40 11% 0.83% Northwestern Oklahoma State University $ 20.75 $ 21.75 5% 0.37% Rogers State University $ 47.00 $ 97.00 106% 8.07% Southeastern Oklahoma State University $ 22.55 $ 17.00 -25% -1.87% Southwestern Oklahoma State University $ 25.00 $ 36.50 46% 3.49% Cameron University $ 39.50 $ 57.00 44% 3.36% Langston University $ 39.55 $ 73.23 85% 6.46% Oklahoma Panhandle State University $ 25.30 $ 109.30 332% 25.19% University of Science and Arts of Oklahoma $ 39.00 $ 55.00 41% 3.11% Carl Albert State College $ 24.00 $ 36.00 50% 3.79% Connors State College $ 18.83 $ 55.00 192% 14.57% Eastern Oklahoma State College $ 17.70 $ 43.47 146% 11.05% Murray State College $ 13.17 $ 30.00 128% 9.70% Northeastern Oklahoma A&M College $ 23.48 $ 64.75 176% 13.34% Northern Oklahoma College $ 20.80 $ 35.50 71% 5.36% Oklahoma City Community College $ 23.45 $ 34.45 47% 3.56% Redlands Community College $ - $ 23.67 100% 7.59% Rose State College $ 18.05 $ 33.22 84% 6.38% Seminole State College $ 33.95 $ 54.67 61% 4.63% Tulsa Community College $ 28.08 $ 29.78 6% 0.46% Western Oklahoma State College $ 30.85 $ 44.27 44% 3.30%

Source: OSRHE Tuition Impact Analysis Reports


Appendix J. Peer State Promise Scholarship Comparison

Table 05: Peer State Promise Scholarship Comparison (Table compares peer state Promise scholarship programs equivalent to Oklahoma’s Promise.)

Income Limit Does Scholarship Pay for Fees? Eligibility LengthProgram Pays Tuition

at 4-Year CollegesRecipients Eligible to Enroll Part-

Time

California College Promise

NoParticipating institutions

determine which fees, if any, to waive.

1 Year NoOnly full-time students are

eligible.

Delaware Student Excellence Equals

Degree (SEED)No

The program does not cover fees.

6 Continuous Semesters

No, with the exception of the Associate in Arts

Program at the University of Delaware.

Only full-time students are eligible.

Hawaii Promise NoThe program covers

educational fees.8 Semesters No

The program does not include credit accumulation or enrollment

intensity requirements beyond satisfactory academic progress for

renewal.

Indiana 21st Century Scholars

Based on family size (e.g., $45,510 for a

family of four)

The program covers fees that are assessed to all students.

4 Years of Undergraduate Tuition

Yes

Only full-time students are eligible, and recipients must earn 30 credit hours per year to remain

eligible.Louisiana Taylor

Opportunity Program for Students (TOPS)

NoThe program does not cover

fees.8 Semesters Yes


Maryland Guaranteed Access Grant

Based on family size (e.g., $31,980 for a

family of four)

The program covers remaining cost of attendance (including fees) after other aid is applied.

4 Years YesOnly full-time students are eligible and recipients must earn 30 credit hours per year to remain eligible.




Time

Missouri A+ Scholarship

No

The program covers general fees (those applied to all

students and not specific to individual programs or groups

of students).

Recipients lose eligibility after they earn an

associate degree or complete 105% of the

hours required for their program, whichever

occurs first.

No

Recipients must complete at least 30 credits per academic year

starting in their second year of enrollment to remain eligible for

the full award.

Montana Promise Grant Program

Potentially based on funding level


2 Years No



renewal.

Nevada Promise Scholarship

NoThe program covers

registration fees and other mandatory fees.

3 Years NoRecipients must enroll in 12 credit

hours per semester to remain eligible.

New York Excelsior Scholarship

Yes, $110,000 combined federal

adjusted gross income in 2018,

increasing to $125,000 in 2019.


The program covers a maximum of two years for

associate degrees, four years for bachelor’s

degrees, or five years for bachelor’s degrees that

normally require five years to complete.

YesOnly full-time students are eligible

and recipients must earn 30 credits per year to remain eligible.

Oklahoma's Promise

Adjusted gross income of $55,000 or

less (increasing to $60,000 in 2021-22)


5 Years YesRecipients can enroll part time

but the five-year eligibility period will not be extended.


Source: Lumina Foundation



Time

Oregon PromiseNo, except in cases of

a budget shortfall.The program does not cover

fees.90 Credit Hours No


intensity requirements beyond satisfactory academic progress for renewal, but awards are prorated

for part-time students.

Rhode Island Promise NoThe program covers

mandatory fees.4 Semesters No


Tennessee Promise and Reconnect

NoBoth programs cover

mandatory fees.5 Semesters

Tennessee Promise and Reconnect

recipients may enroll at four-year

institutions, but the awards are only applicable for

associate degree and certificate programs and do not cover the

full cost of tuition.

Only full-time students are eligible for Tennessee Promise.

Tennessee Reconnect recipients can enroll part time

Washington College Bound Scholarship

Equal to 65 percent of the state’s median

family income (e.g., $57,000 for a family

of four in 2018-2019).

The program covers service and activity fees.

4 Year Yes



renewal.


Agency Response


Alternative and Additional Policy Considerations Within this section, LOFT provides policy analysis on alternatives and additional policy considerations in response to requests submitted by members of the Legislative Oversight Committee.

Adjusting Oklahoma’s Promise Scholarship to a “Last-Dollar” Model. Currently, 8 of the 14 active Promise programs are structured as last-dollar scholarships. Last-dollar scholarships, as their name implies, are intended to provide financial assistance to student recipients after all other financial aid resources have been awarded. In a last-dollar program, the amount of College Promise funding awarded to an eligible student takes into account any other financial assistance to include the Expected Family Contribution (EFC), and eligible state and federal aid, like a federal Pell Grant.

LOFT estimates that shifting Oklahoma’s Promise scholarship formula to a last-dollar award would initially save Oklahoma $13 million dollars per year before eventually saving $19 million by 2030.

Chart 14: Annual Cost of Oklahoma’s Promise as Last-Dollar Model. (Line chart comparing annua cost of Oklahoma’s Promise with current funding formula with a last-dollar model.

Also, by adjusting the Oklahoma’s Promise scholarship to a last-dollar award, the need for an income limit is removed as a student’s EFC controls the level of financial support received by the State; freeing up additional funds to be distributed to more students.

Policy Consideration The Legislature may consider the following policy changes to change the funding formula:

• 70 O.S. § 2605 – Adjust Oklahoma’s Promise scholarship from a flat-income based eligibility to an adjustable formula. The formula could account for expected family contributions, college savings plans and state and federal aid for scholarship award amounts.


Granting Eligibility for Undocumented Students Per Title 70, Section 2603, Oklahoma’s Promise recipients must be a United States citizen or lawfully present in the United States. This statute clearly restricts undocumented students from being eligible for Oklahoma’s Promise.

Currently, 8 of the 14 active Promise programs across the nation permit undocumented students to be eligible for state Promise scholarships.

Due to limited data on the accurate number of undocumented students and DACA recipients residing in Oklahoma, LOFT was unable to analyze the impact allowing access for these respective populations into Oklahoma’s Promise would have on the program.

The latest data available, from the Pew Research Center, reported that 6.4% of Oklahoma students had at least one unauthorized immigrant parent. According to enrollment data from the OSDE, this percentage equates to 44,330 students. Absent further information on these students, LOFT is unable to provide an impact analysis of granting access for undocumented students.

While not eligible for Oklahoma’s Promise, Undocumented immigrants meeting certain requirements may be considered for in-state tuition rates and awards under the Oklahoma Tuition Aid Grant Program (70 O.S. § 3242).

Policy Consideration The Legislature may consider the following policy changes to provide eligibility for further students:

• 70 O. S. § 2603 – Create new policy to allow undocumented students who meet specific requirements to be eligible for Oklahoma’s Promise.


Granting Eligibility for Justice-Involved Students Oklahoma’s Promise currently requires that students must avoid both drugs and alcohol abuse and not commit criminal or delinquent acts in order to be eligible to receive Oklahoma’s Promise. This limits the number of students with juvenile offenses to qualify for Oklahoma’s Promise.

Currently, 6 of the 14 active Promise programs allow access for justice-involved and formerly incarcerated students. Most recently, Oregon enacted HB2910, effective as of January 2020, which allows incarcerated and justice-involved students to be eligible for Oregon Promise.

To provide further context regarding this question, LOFT’s evaluation team researched and analyzed data on juvenile offenses in Oklahoma. In 2019, violent crimes accounted for 15% of all juvenile offenses, but the majority of arrests, 85%, came from non-violent offenses.

Chart 15: 2019 Juvenile Arrests, by Offense. (Pie of pie chart that shows the percent breakdown of juvenile arrests by offense in 2019).

In 2019, 34% of non-violent juvenile offenses were drug and alcohol related, 13% were from runaway situations and 9% were from curfew and loitering violations. The number of juvenile arrests has also been decreasing in Oklahoma.

LOFT: Oklahoma’s Promise Priority Evaluation 58 Between 2000 and 2019, the occurrence of juvenile arrests has also decreased by 67%, again with 85% of the arrests related to non-violent offenses in 2019.

Chart 16: Total Oklahoma Juvenile Arrests by Year. (Line chart illustrating declining trend in Oklahoma juvenile arrests.)

Policy Consideration The Legislature may consider the following policy changes to provide eligibility for further students:

• 70 O.S. § 2603 – Create new policy to allow students with non-violent, drug and alcohol offenses to be eligible for Oklahoma’s Promise.

Priority Evaluation: Oklahoma's Promise

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Transcript of Priority Evaluation: Oklahoma's Promise