IFIMES2003

Publisher: IFIMES-InternationalInstituteforMiddle EastandBalkanStudies,Tivolska50, P.O.BOX2795,SI-1001Ljubljana,Slovenia,EU tel.:++38614301533, fax:++38614301534 e-mail:ifimes@ifimes.org www.ifimes.org

ForthePublisher:BakhtyarAljaf

Editor: ZijadBećirović

Translatedby: IFIMES

DTPandcoverpage PrintingOfficeMišmaš,Adamičeva4, ŠmarjeSap,Slovenia

Printedby: Slovenia

CONTENTS

INFORMATIONSABOUTTHEINSTITUTE 5FOUNDERSOFICTAC-INTERNATIONALCOUNTER-TERRORISMACADEMICCOMMUNITY 7THEANALYSISOFEVENTSINIRAQANDTHEREGIONAHURRICANEOVERBAGHDAD? 8THEFEDERALISMANDTHEFUTUREOFIRAQ 17INHOCSIGNOVINCESRELIGIOUSSYMBOLISMINTHEBALKANWARS1991-1995 24DEMOCRATIZATION–WEAPONAGAINSTTERRORISM 37SUDAN:TERRORISMYESTERDAY,OILTODAY 42WHEREARETHEISRAELISANDTHEPALESTINIANS???THEOSLOPEACEAGREEMENTISDEAD 45PARTNERSHIPFORTHEMIDDLEEAST 49LIKUDORTHELABOURITES? 52STUDIESONTHEFUTUREOFIRAQ 54WARCRIMES 59THEFEDERALISMANDTHEFUTUREOFIRAQ 65TURKEY:THEARMYSIDESWITHTHEAKPISLAMISTICGOVERNMENT 72ISTHEMACEDONIANSUNGOINGTOSHINE? 74THEGENOCIDEANDTHEINTERNATIONALCRIMESINSOUTHOFIRAQ 77AMERICANSTRATEGYINTHEWARFORTHELIBERATIONOFIRAQ 84WITHTHEOPERATIONTOLIBERATEIRAQ,SADAMHUSSEIN’SMORTALENEMIESREMAINNEUTRALWILLRUSSIAFILLTHEVOID? 87ISUSALOOSINGTHEWAR–MILITARILYANDPOLITICALLY? 90STREETFIGHTING-ANIGHTMAREFORTHEALLIES 93WHOISGOINGTOREBUILDIRAQ:COALITIONORUNITEDNATIONS? 96SYRIA–WILLITBEPUNISHEDORREWARDED? 99THELOSERS:FROMSANKTPETERSBURGTORIYADH 102TURKEY:ONTHETRACKOFRADICALCONSTITUTIONALREFORMS 105MONTENEGRO:ONTHEROADTOINDEPENDENCEANDAUTOKEPHALITY 110LEGALPOSITIONOFCHURCHESANDRELIGIOUSCOMMUNITIESINBOSNIAANDHERCEGOVINA 113AMERICANBASESINIRAN–RUSSIANBASESINSAUDIARABIA? 127THEMIDDLEEAST:REARINGFORTERRORISM? 132THEMIDDLE-EASTERNREGION-THEBEGINNINGOFATHIRDPHASE? 137HOTIRAQISUMMER 142VOJVODINA:NEW(OLD)OPPORTUNITYFORTHESERBIANGOVERNMENT 145SERBIA:G17PLUSSECRETPLANS? 149GENOCIDEANDTHEINTERNATIONALCRIMESAGAINSTKURDINIRAQUNDERSADDAMREGIME 153HASPANDORA’SBOXBEENOPENED? 158VIOLATIONIFWOMENRIGHTSINIRAQ 161ISLAMICTERRORISMKNOCKINGATTHEEUROPEANDOOR 165COMMUNICATINGSECURITYANDCOOPERATIONINSOUTH-EASTERNEUROPE 170WHATWILLHAPPENAFTERTHEELECTIONSINCROATIA? 184SLOVENIA-BRANDINGASMALLNEWEUNATIONABSTRACT 191THEDAYTONPEACEAGREEMENTANDTHEDEVELOPMENTOFPOLITICALPLURALISMINBOSNIAANDHERZEGOVINA 204

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INFORMATIONS ABOUT THE INSTITUTE

IFIMES– International Institute forMiddle-East andBalkan studies,based inLjubljana - Slovenia, gathers and selects various information and sources onkeyconflictareasintheworld.Basedontheselectedinformation,theInstituteanalysesmutualrelationsamongpartieswithanaimtopromotetheimportanceofglobalconflictresolutionoftheexistingconflictsandtheroleofpreventiveac-tionsagainstnewglobaldisputes.IdeatoestablishIFIMESInstituteisareflectionofourcommonrealityandtheneedsoftheworldtoreachforcommonsolutions–nowmorethaneverinthepast.Commoninterestsandbondsamongdifferentpolicies,nations, religions,worldregionsanddiverseinterestpartiesintheunipolarworldareessential.Con-stantsearchfordifferencesandrejectionsislikesearchingforaneedleinapackofhay,whileinsistingoncooperationandrespectfordiversityprovidesachancetocreateabetterworld.The area of research and work of IFIMES Institute is the Middle East (Gulfstates)andtheBalkans(South-EasternEurope),whererelationsamongdifferententitiesarebasedonreligious,ethnic,nationalandracialgrounds.AssociatesoftheInstitutearerespectedexperts,scientists,managers,journalistsandresearch-ers,whoareintroducingyoungercolleaguesfromallovertheworldtowork,withapurposeofadditionaleducation,promotionofknowledgeandscientificachieve-mentswithanemphasison thepoliticalandeconomicconnectionswithin theregion,amongtheregionsandonthegloballevel.TheIFIMESInstituteisthroughorganizingseminars,symposiums,conferences,round tables, (with participants from various interest groups: scientists, politi-cians,managers, representativesofreligious institutions, journalists,artistsandothers), performing analyses, studies and projects, as well as through its ownpublicationspresenting theresultsof itsworkandachievements,also targetingleadinginternationalmedia.IFIMESwillinthefuturecooperatewithrelevantinstitutionsfromtheUSA,EU,Gulf states and countries from South-Eastern Europe on projects, studies andanalysespreparedindividuallyorbasedonspecificdemandsfromaknownparty.TheactivitiesofIFIMESareespeciallydirectedtowardstheareasofinternational(foreign)politicsandeconomy,internationalrelations,counsellingthestateinsti-tutions,companiesandindividualsandmore.IFIMES is searching for and recommending political solutions to the govern-mentsof theworld,especiallyandforemostfortheregionsof theBalkansandtheMiddleEast.

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FOUNDERS OF ICTAC - INTERNATIONALCOUNTER-TERRORISM ACADEMIC COMMUNITY

TheInternationalCounter-TerrosimAcademicCommunity(ICTAC),wasestab-lishedatICT’sthirdinternationalconferenceinSeptember2003.TheICTAC’smembers include leading counter-terrorism researchers and research institutesfromcountriesaroundtheglobe.AmongICTAC’sgoals:developingandexpand-ingacademiccooperationincounter-terrorism;conductingresearchthatwillleadtomoreefficientdecision-making incounter-terrorism;promotingnewpoliciesandinitiativestofightterrorism:

1. InternationalPolicyInstituteforCounter-Terrorism(ICT),Israel2. International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES),

Slovenia3. UnconventionalConcepts,Inc.,USA4. GeorgiaInternationalLawEnforcement,Exchange-DeptofCriminalJustice,

GeorgiaStateUniversity,USA5. CenterforTacticalCounter-TerrorismfortheNYPD6. InstituteofDefenceandStrategicStudies(IDSS),Singapore7. InternationalFoundationExperimentalCreativityCenter,Russia8. Center for High Studies on Counter-Terrorism and Political Violence

(Ce.A.S.),Italy9. OklahomaRegionalCommunityPolicingInstitute,USA10.NationalCenterforEmergencyPreparednessatVanderbiltUniversityMedical

Center,USA11.EinvironmentalPlannigSpecialists,Inc-and-GeorgiaStateUniversity,USA12.Counter-TerrorismResearchCenterofGeorgia,Georgia13.CenterofSecurity&TerrorismResearch,InstituteofPoliticalStudies,SCG14.CenterforGlobalizationStudies,SCG

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The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana has specially for the September issue of “Obramba” (“Defence Monthly”), a Slovenian professional journal dealing with defence-military issues, prepared the analysis of events going on in Iraq and the region. Since it is a very complex question concerning not only the regions of the Middle East but the whole global community, the experts of the Institute have, together with their co-operators, analysed the present situation in Iraq and in the wider region as well as the factors which have contributed to the dispute between Iraq, i.e. Sadam Husein and the USA.

THE ANALYSIS OF EVENTS IN IRAQ AND THE REGIONA HURRICANE OVER BAGHDAD?

ThequestionwhicharisesattheverybeginningiswhetherpresenteventsarethecontinuationoftheconflictbetweenSadamHuseinandGeorgeBushSr.–whichistheopinionofsomepoliticiansandanalysts–orthereissomethingelseinthebackground–astheexpertsfromtheIFIMESLjubljanaInstitutebelieve.Isthereasonforthedisputesimplythefact,thatIraqdoesnotrespecttheResolutionsoftheSecurityCouncilNos.687,688and949?Orwasittriggeredby11Septem-berlastyearandtheeventsrelatedtothatdate,orbythecrisisoftheAmericaneconomy and the decay of American corporate giants? Perhaps there are alsosomeindirectfactorssuchastheIsraeli-Palestinianconflict?CanitbethecrisisinSaudiArabia,therelationshipsintheroyalfamilyitself?Isitthecrisisoftherefor-mationmovementleadbyMohamedKhatami,thepresentIranianpresident?Orperhapsthe(non)successofAmericanwaragainstterrorism?KonstantinSpiliots,politicalresearcherattheDartmuthCollege,said:“Thewaragainstterrorismfollowing11SeptemberisthefocusofthehistoricalmissionMr.Bushhastoaccomplishduringhistermofoffice.Atthebeginningofhisoffice,BushdidnotmanagetoreviveAmericaneconomy,reducethebudgetarydeficitandinfluencethecapitalmarket.Ifhefailsinallthat,hispoliticaltermofofficewillbeweakandhispoliticalfuturevague.Apresidentcanalwaysbenefitfromawaraslongasitdoesnotturnintoacatastrophe.”Infact,alltheabovementionedfactorshavesignificantlyinfluencedthepresentflowofeventsandtheenvisageddenouementinthefuture.

IRAQ FOR THE SECOND TIME WITH THE SECOND BUSH

In 1991, Norman Schwarzkopf, the American general, already reached theshootingrangeofBaghdadandAmericanforcesweremakingaprogress.In14provinces(of18altogether),thepowerwasassumedbytherebels,i.e.thepresent

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opposition.However,PresidentGeorgeBushSr.decidedtoendthewarsoastoprevent Iraq from disintegrating which would not have been acceptable in thecontextofcircumstancesintheworldthenduetothestabilityintheregion.In1991,theUNSecurityCounciladoptedResolutionsNos.687and688withtheconsentofSadamHuseinwhotherewithapprovedoftheintroductionofUnitedNationscontrolsystem.DuringhisresidenceintheWhiteHouse,PresidentClintonfollowedthepolicyofsustainmentoftheexistingsituationinIraq.Periodicmissileattacksonmarginalgoals in IraqandcontinuousAmerican-Britishaircontrolof theskyabove the36thparallelandbelowthe32ndparallelwerehavingonlypsychologicaleffects.PresidentClintontriedhohelptheIraqioppositionanduniteit.Atfirst,hisin-fluencemetaresponsesincetheIraqiNationalCongress(INC)wasestablishedin1992inSalahaddin(IraqiKurdistan)astheumbrellaorganisationofallop-positionpoliticalparties–rangingfromtheleft-wingtoIslamic,fromnationalistKurdishandArabictoliberal.In1998,PresidentClintonachievedtheadoptionoftheLawonLiberationofIraqintheAmericanCongress,whichenabledtheINCtogainasubsidyamountingtoUSD100million.However,internaldisagree-ments(fracturing)eventuallyledtoasituationwheretheIraqiNationalCongressbecameonlyonemorepartyinsteadoftheumbrellacongressofallparties.Aseriousincidenttookplaceduringthesameyear(1998)whenIraqiauthoritiesaccusedScottRidder,theheadofagroupofUNinspectors,ofespionageinbe-halfoftheUSAandIsrael.Ridderlateradmittedtheactinhismemoirs.Conse-quently,IraqbanishedUNinspectorsandtheDesertFoxoperationcommenced,althoughwithnoeffect.When George Bush Jr. assumed power, great changes occurred in Americanforeignpolicy, followedby11Septemberwhichshockednotonly theUSAbutthe whole democratic world. That triggered the introduction of the AmericanpolicyofpunishmentofterroristsoutsidetheborderoftheUSAandterritoriesofNATOalliancememberstates.UnilateralismandcriticismoftheNorthAtlanticAllianceforlosingitsrolebutnotimportancewasevenmoreintensivelypresentinAmericanpolitics.ThiswasmostevidentinAfghanistaninprovidinghelptotheAfghanistanNorthAllianceandtheopposition,whentheUSAtookoverthedominantroleinfightingagainstAl-KaidaandtheTalibans.InAmericanpolitics,theworldhasbeenre-dividedintothestateswhichsupportterrorismononehandandthosewhichfightagainstterrorismtogetherwiththeUSAontheotherhand.Iraqhasbeenlabelledasoneoftheaxesoftheevilforces.TheevidenceagainstIraqwasprovable,butitslinksandassociationswiththeAl-KaidaterroristnetworkcouldnotbeproveninspiteoftherumoursthatthereisevidenceofthemeetinginPraguebetweenanIraqidiplomatandMohamedAtta,oneof theterroristswhowas inoneof theplaneswhichhit theWTCinNew

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York.Duetolackofevidence,theUSAarelookingforconfirmationintheUNResolutionsNos.687,688and949.Inspiteofallevidenceandnon-evidence,MsCondolizzeRice,SecurityAdviser,believesthatSadamHuseinistoodangerouswhichisgoodenoughreasonforhimtoleavethestage.As the anniversary of 11 September is approaching, the USA are intensifyingtheirexpectationsregardingtheimportantdecisiontotakeawaypowerfromIraqidictator,SadamHusein.PresidentBushmadeitclearinJune2002thattheUSAarenotwillingtoobserveindifferentlythosewhopossesorevenproduceweaponsofmassdestruction.“Wehavetoattackinordertodefendourfreedom”Bushsaidandhiswordsech-oedeverywhere,notonlyamongtheallies.Nevertheless,PentagonandtheStateDepartment have different opinions on how to overthrow Sadam Husein. TheinfluentialRepublicansDickCheney,DonaldRumsfeldandPaulWolfowitzareinfavouroftheclassicinvasionofIraqandcollapseoftheregime.Ontheotherhand,CollinPowell,SecretaryofState,sharestheopinionofthemajorityofal-lies,i.e.thatthecontrolofIraqiarmamentshouldbemademoresevere.StephenWalt,thedeanatKennedySchoolofManagementattheHarvardUni-versitysaid:“TherearenoindicatorsthatIraqcouldbecomemoredangerous.Wecanmaintainstatusquoforafewmoreyears”.Inhissecondstatementhecontin-ues:“Asfarasthetimescheduleoftheoperationisconcerned,italldependsonthesituationindomesticpolitics.ThoseintheAdministrationwhoareinfavourofthewarareintheminoritybutstillveryinfluential.Theyareneo-conservatives,gatheredaroundVicePresidentCheney,RumsfeldandWolfowitz.”Undeniably, the use of force in order to overthrow Sadam Husein would becontrarynotonly to theprovisionsof theTreatyofWestphaliabutalso to themoderninternationallawwhichpermitstheuseofforceinself-defenceincaseofgroundedthreatsandnotincaseofmerelyexpressedsuspicion.

WHO IS IN FAVOUR AND WHO IS AGAINST

Europeanallies,withtheexceptionofUnitedKingdom,opposetheattackonIraqsincetheinterventioncannotbegroundedontheResolutionsoftheUNSecurityCouncil.Moreover,thefinancingofsuchanoperationisalsoquestionable.ThiswaspointedoutbytheGermanChancellorSchroederwhostatedontheoccasionthatGermanyisnotabottomlessbag.TheIslamicworld,especiallytheIslamicmasses,opposeabovealltheUSAbeliev-ingthattheyarethetraditionalenemyofIslamandeventuallyoftheMuslims.ThismoodofMuslimmassesisabovealltheresultofunsuccessfulpeacenego-tiationsinWyPlantionsintheUSAwhichtookplacein2002(Clinton–Barak–Arafat)andthebeginningofthesecondstageofIntifada.

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TheArabregimeswillnothaveasignificantinfluenceontheAmericandecision,amongotherduetotheirinternalproblems.Forexample,SaudiArabiaisfacingproblemsintheroyalfamilyandthefightforthesuccessiontothethroneofkingFahdwhoisbecauseofhisseveresicknessonlyartificiallykeptalive.Theeco-nomiccrisisfollowingthedropinoilpriceshaslimitedambitiousmedium-termeconomicplansforthecountrywhicharebeingquestionednow.Moreover, the IslammovementswhichsympathizewithandhelpAl-Kaidaareveryinfluential.LoaramMorawic,theanalystatRandCorporation(whichunitessomeveryprominentmemberssuchasD.Coel,H.Kissinger,J.Shliessenger,H.Braun,N.GingrichandT.Folli),believesthatSaudiArabiaishostiletotheUnit-edStatesofAmericaandthattheSaudisareveryactiveininternationalterrorismincludingplanning,financing,sympathizingandrealizationofterroristacts.TheofficialpoliticsofIranareanti-American,althoughitwasneutralin1991intheGulfwar.Sincethereformersenteredthestage,thewindsofchangehavebeenfeltintherelationsbetweenIranandtheUSA.ThiscouldbeclearlyobservedintherolewhichIranplayedintheAfghanistanwaraswellasinthecomposingofthenewAfghangovernmentandbringingundercontroltheShiiticleadersundertheKarzaigovernment. In thenineties, theSupremeCouncilof IslamRevolu-tioninIraq(SCIRI),whichisthemainShiiticoppositionpartyinIraqwithitsheadquartersinTeheran,opposedanykindofAmericanhelptoIraqiopposition.ThankstoimprovedrelationsbetweenIranandtheUSA,SCIRItookpartatthemeetingoftheoppositionwiththeAmericanAdministrationon9and10AugustthisyearinWashington.IranhasexpressedgreatinterestintheperiodfollowingtheregimeofSadamHusein,andSCIRIwillassumetheappropriatepositionintheinterimgovernment(about60%).Fromtheverybeginning,Turkeyhasopposedanykindof interventionagainstIraq.PrimeMinisterBulendEdževithaswrittenseveraltimestoSadamHuseinadvisinghimtoallowUNinspectorstoenterIraq,sincethewholeTurkishecon-omywassufferinggreatlossesduetotheisolationofIraq.Mostofall,AnkaraisafraidofthedisintegrationofIraqandtheproclamationoftheKurdishstateintheNorthofIraq,asthatwouldencourageTurkishKurdstotakesimilaractions.ThemeetingofPeterGallbright,aformerAmericanambas-sadortoCroatia,whoisarecognizedexpertintheKurdishissueandprofessorattheNationalSecurityCollege,withtherepresentativesoftheKurdishpowerandIranianKurdishopposition,whichtookplaceinIraqiKurdistaninJuly2002,hasperhapsstrengthenedthefearsofAnkarathattheKurdishandAzerbaijaniissuesmightbeactualisedandtheinternationalcommunitymighteventuallyinterfereininternalpoliticalmatterswherethoseminoritiesactuallylive.WeshouldnotforgetthefactthattheprovinceofMosul(IraqiKurdistan),whichisrichinoil,belongedtoTurkeyuntil1924whenitbecamepartoftheKingdom

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ofIraq.ItwasagreedthenthatTurkeywouldget10%ofoilextractedinthatterri-tory,buttheagreementwasneverrealised.However,Turkeyhasits“Trojanhorse”attheNorthofIraqwherethereareabout300to500thousandTurkmen.AnkaraevenstatesthatthereisaroundmillionofTurkmenandisdoubtlesslyreadytousethisfacttojustifyaneventualinterventioninthispartofIraq(behindtheveilofprotectionofTurkmen)inordertopreventtheestablishmentoftheKurdishstate.ThiswasalsodiscussedintalksbetweenAmericanVicePresidentCheneyandDeputySecretaryofDefencePaulWolfowitzandtheTurkishmilitaryleadershipwhichishascriticalinfluenceintheTurkishpolitics.WhatareTurkey’sexpectations?Firstly,a“stand-by”arrangementwiththeInter-nationalMonetaryFund,secondly, reschedulingofmilitarydebt to theUnitedStates of America, and thirdly, a firm assurance given by the USA that therewouldbenodisintegrationofIraq.TurkeyisstrivingforadirectcooperationinmilitaryoperationsinIraqandnotonlypassiveparticipationaswasthecaseinAfghanistan(policeunitsinISAF).ThereactionsofIndiaandPakistanwillrepresentthegreatestandperhapsmostdangerousenigma.Namely,theymightusethenew“rules”oftheworldpolicyintheirconflictwhichcouldleadtoanewwar(thepolicyoffirststrike).As regards Russia, the majority of analysts believe that it will give its consenttotheactionsinIraqinexchangeforAmericanconsenttonuclearcooperationbetweenRussiaandIran(notonlyconcerningthenuclearreactorinBushehr,butalsofivenewreactors).This is thesubjectofnegotiationsofamixedAmerican–Russiancommission.PresidentPutinhaspromisedPresidentBushthatRussiawouldnotopposetheinterventioninIraqdespitethepubliclydeclaredpolicyandoppositionintheUNSecurityCouncil(however,withoutexercisingthepowerofveto).RussiastrivesforcooperationwiththeUSAespeciallyinordertogainsup-portintheInternationalMonetaryFundandtogetitspeaceoftheIraqicake.WhataboutIsrael?IftheIraqiregimeattacksIsraelwithunconventionalweap-ons, Israelwill strikebackwithanuclearattack. Israelwill respond toattacksonTelAvivorHaifawithretaliatorynuclearattackonthoseIraqitownswherenoAmericanforcesarepresent.TheUSApromisedIsraeltoinformitoftheat-tack60hourspriortothecommencementandletitmakeafreedecisionontheresponse.

ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE INTERVENTION IN IRAQ

TheanalystsofourInstitutesharetheopinionthatthechangeofregimeinIraqwillleadtoanewdrawingofmapsintheregion.Asregardsthenaturalresources,IraqispotentiallytherichestcountryintheMiddleEasttodaysinceitistheonlycountrywithbothoilandwater.Iraqhasthesecondlargeststocksofoilfoundin

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theworld.Atthemomentitextractsthepermitted2.1millionbarrelsperday(onebarrelcontains159l)butitscapacityis6millionbarrelsperday,whileitsinten-tionsaretopump10millionbarrelsperday.Thiswillsignificantlycontributetothecollapseofeconomicplansofthecountriesintheregion.GreatestlosseswillbesufferedbytheOPECstates,especiallySaudiArabiawhichearns90-95%ofrevenuesfromexportsandtwothirdsofallnationalrevenuewiththesaleofoil.ThiswasconfirmedbyBradPortland,headanalystatSaudi-AmericaBank.TheOPECoil cartelwould surely lose someof its present international influence.Less“obedient”statesandregimeswilldefinitelyhavelessimportantinfluenceontheformationofoilprices.ThenewIraqigovernmentwillmostprobablyhaveamoreliberalattitudetothepolicyofpriceformationandsupplyofoiltotheWest.Moreover,thenewgovernmentwillnotrespectthecontractsforsupplyofoil andmodernisationofoil industry, signedwith thecompanies fromRussia,FranceandChina,whichwereconcludedduringtheregimeofSadamHusein.TheInstitute’sanalystsbelievethatthoseareactuallyonlydraftcontractssincethe existing sanctions against Iraq prevent the conclusion of contracts whichwouldbindbothparties.AccordingtoRaadAlkadiry,theleadinganalystatPetroliumFinanceCompany,thereisatreasureinIraqwhichthreatenstocauseanoil-rushsimilartotherealgold-rushwhichhittheUSAinthemid-nineteenthcentury.Filip Mareni from the budget committee of the French senate said: “The waragainstIraqwillcollapsealleconomicforecastsofthegovernmentsinceFranceaswell asotherEuropean states are facingbudgetarydifficultiesbasedon thehypothesisofthe3%economicgrowth.”RenéDefonsée,analystatCDCExis,stated:“ThebusinessenvironmentintheUSAisreservedtowardstheAmericaninterventioninIraqsincetheinvestorsandconsumersarelosingtheirconfidence.DuringtheGulfwarin1991,investmentsintheUSAfellby6.9%.”Iraqmayexpecthighrevenuesfromtourism.ThetwomostimportantShiiticholycities,KerbelaandNaif,arelocatedthere,aswellasthecityofUrukwhereAbra-ham,fatherofJews,ChristiansandMuslims,livedbeforehemovedtoJerusalem.Moreover,IraqpridesitselfinoneoftheSevenWondersoftheWorld-theHang-ingGardens-andtheIshtarGateintheancientcityofBabylon.

WHAT ARE THE REASONS FOR THE PRESENT EVENTS?

IraqhasanimportantgeographicpositionandasignificantroleinthespirituallifeofMuslims.Weshouldnotforgetthattherewasthecentreofoneofthefourcaliphates,i.e.theheadquartersofAbbasids,whichwastheleadingcaliphateforcenturiesandcontributedgreatlytotheformationofIslamichistory.Asregards

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itsgeographic-religiousposition,IraqislocatedbetweentheTurkish(Sunnite)andIranian(Shiite)state.TheformerisintheNATOalliancewhilethelatterisoneoftheevilforcesaccordingtothedefinitionofAmericanPresidentBush.ThisistheAmericanstrategicareastretchingfromtheBalkansandTurkeythroughthecentralAsiaandAfghanistanandendinginIraqintheformofaring.ThesuccessofAmericanpolicy inIraq is likely tohavepositiveeffectsonthepeaceprocessintheMiddleEast.Syriawillremainisolatedandforcedtocontin-uenegotiationswithIsraeltoresolvetheissueoftheGolanplain(waterreservesforIsraelcoveringasmuchas37%waterreservesfortheneedsofIsrael).ThePalestinianswillrealizethattheUSAaredeterminedtogetridofcompromisedandbadregimes.Afterall,PresidentBushpromisedtheproclamationoftheStateofPalestinealreadyduringhistermofoffice.TheArabsbelievethatthewaytoBaghdadgoesthroughJerusalem.TheAmeri-cansnowhavetoprovethatthewaytoJerusalemgoesthroughBaghdad,orinotherwords,thatthesolutionofthePalestineissuewillfollowthesolutiontotheIraqiquestion.

THE OPERATION HURRICANE

ThewrongideamightbedetectedinhintsgivenbyseveralmediathattheUSAhavenoclearstrategyfortheinterventioninIraq.Asamatteroffact,theUSAhaverichexperienceininterventions:Haiti,Somalia,Kosovo,Afghanistan.TheAmericanAdministrationisfacingastrategicdecisionandnotatacticaloneandthedecisionisbasedonstayinginIraqandtheregion.TheAdministrationwillnotallowanyonetosharetheIraqicakewithit.TheUSAwantsthereconstruc-tioninIraqtobecarriedoutbyAmericancompanies.Americahas found thebest ally for the century following11September2001,sincetheIraqinationiseducatedandsecularised.Atthebeginning,theoperationHurricanewillbeaone-sidedmilitaryinterventionwithoutallies–exceptUnitedKingdomandAustralia–intheformofairassaultsfortheprotectionofthepopulationbelowthe32ndparallel.TheAmericanideaisthattheinterventionistobecarriedoutintheformofasnowball.Itwillgradu-allyprogressfromBasratoMandaliononesidewhilecombatoperationswillbeperformedbytheSCIRIarmedwing(Badrcorps)ontheotherside.TheKurdishforces(100,000)arenearMandalithereforeclosingtheringaroundBaghdad.American infantry units (75 - 200,000 soldiers) will invade from Jordan andKuwait–especiallyfromJordanduetothemodernhighwaylinkbetweenAmanandBaghdad.AmericanswilldescentonthreeairportsintheNorthIraqwhichiscontrolledbyKurdishandAmericanforces.HeavybombingofpositionsheldbyIraqiRepublicanGuardinthevicinityofBaghdadandTikritisexpected.Baghdad

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willnotwithstandthefierceattack.TheoperationmightbecomedifficultincaseofdisplacementoftheRepublicanGuardunitsintothecitycentresandtheuseofweaponsofmassdestruction.AmericanairforceswillnotusethePrinceSultanairbaseinSaudiArabia.TheUSAare reconstructing theOdedhairport inQatar(investmentvalueofUSD1.4billion).AircraftcarrierswillbelocatedintheRedSeaandtheGulf.TheairbasesofDiegoGarcia,Turkey(Incirluk,AskiŠeher),Georgia(Tbilisi),Bulgaria,Belgrade,Niš,PodgoricaandFairForthinGreatBritainwillbeemployed.Militaryanalystsanticipate jointoperationsof theopposition(KDP,PUKandSCIRI)-withthesupportofalliedairforcesandspecialunitsfortheliberationofBaghdad-tolastoneweek.

THE NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT

TheUSAplaytheroleofanassistantinunitinganti-regimepoliticalpartiesonthebasisofagreedpoliticalstarting-points.Americanswillactasasurgeonwhohastoremoveatumourandkeepthebodyaliveandhealthy.DonaldRumsfeldhaswarnedrepresentativesof theopposition that themilitaryoverthrowofSadamHuseinisofAmericanconcernandstressedtheimportanceofwhatthegovern-mentinIraqwillbelikeafterSadamHuseinandwhatdirectionwillitstrivefor.TheUSAwillhavethefinalsayintheformationofthenewjointIraqigovernment(representativesofShiites,Sunnites,Christians)of theArabs,Kurds,TurkmenandAssyrians.This canbeprovenby the fact that theUSAdidnot take intoconsiderationdifferentdraftsoftheconstitutionproposedbytheopposition.ThenewconstitutionwillsuitAmericanwishes.Iraqwillbedividedintotwotothreeentities with one central government. American representatives Dick CheneyandDonaldRumsfeldpresented the above intentions to the representativesofsixoppositionpartiesatthemeetinginWashingtonwhichtookplaceon9and10August2002.Theydiscussed theorganisationof theoppositionconferenceofbroaderextentsomewhere inEuropeduring thenextweekswith theaimofformingthenewIraqigovernment,takingintoconsiderationtheinterestsofdif-ferentethnic,religiousandpoliticalgroups.AttheWashingtonmeetingtheyalsodiscussedthequestionofKurds,theissueofoil-richKirkuk,theformsofnationalinstitutionsandtheroleandorganisationofthearmy.ThenewIraqigovernmenthastoshowreadinesstocooperateinthesettlementoftwooutoffourmillionPalestinianrefugeeswhorepresenttheheartoftheprob-lemintheIsraeli-Palestinianconflict,recognitionofthestateofIsraelandactiveparticipationinthepeaceprocess,eventhoughIraqdoesnotborderonIsrael.ItcanbeconcludedfromtheabovethatthemilitaryinterventioninIraqwillbeinevitableinthenextsixmonths.TheregimeofSadamHuseinwillbeeliminated

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andanewinterimIraqigovernmentappointed.Asaresult,alltheseeventswillinfluencestronglythepoliticalandeconomicchangesintheMiddleEast.IRAQTheRepublicofIraqcoverstheareaof437,072sq.kmandcountsabout23millioninhabitants.ThecapitalisBaghdadwith3.9millioninhabitants,whoarebynationality75%Arabs,20%Kurds,theremaining5%areTurkmenandAssyrians.Byreligiousbeliefthereare60%Shiites,35%Sunnites,4%Christians,1%JewsandYeizidsandother.Theworkingpopulationcounts4.4millioninhab-itants(44%employedinagriculture,26inindustry,30%intheservicesector).GrossdomesticproductisUSD57billion,percapitaUSD2,500.Inflationis100%.Naturalresources:oil,phosphates,sulphur.IraqbordersTurkey,Iran,Kuwait,SaudiArabia,JordanandSyria.

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Iraqi Kurdistan - Ten years of self-rule and future prospectsAn International ConferenceUniversity of Southern Denmark, 30th November – 1st December 2002 in Odense, Denmark

Paper presented by

Munther Al Fadhal, PhDFormer Visiting professor of Middle Eastern law International College of Law in LondonCounsellor-at-law and human rights authorStockholm, SwedenMember of the Council of the International Institute IFIMES

THE FEDERALISM AND THE FUTURE OF IRAQ

INTRODUCTION

PrinciplesofFederalisminFutureIraq:

ThenatureandsystemofgovernmentinIraqisresponsibleformostofitsexternalandinternalproblemssinceitsinceptionin1921anduntilthepresenttime.AdeficiencyexistsinthepoliticalandconstitutionalstructureforIraqsincethefirstestablishedconstitution“BasicLaw”of1925untilthelastconstitutionof1970,characterizedbyexcessivecentralizationandtheruleofanindividualespeciallysince1979theyearSaddamHusseinascendedtopower.Thisironfistcentralau-thoritycontradictswiththeestablishmentofademocraticsocietyandcivilsoci-etyespeciallyinacountrylikeIraqwithadiverseethnicandreligiouspopulationandvaryingpoliticalpartiesandmovements.Asaresult,theKurdishpopulationwassubjecttowarcrimesandthecrimeofgenocide.OtherethnicgroupswerenotsparedfromsuchcrimesincludingthemajorityArabShiite.Inordertoestablishademocraticsystem,ruleofthelawandconstitutionalinsti-tutionsitisnecessarytochangethetypeofgovernmentandnatureofruleforma simple state based on centralization to a federal compound union, wherebytheauthoritiesaredistributedamongtheregionalgovernmentsandinstitutions.Suchaset-upiscompatiblewithIraq’sdiversepopulationandanintroductiontoresolvetheKurdishissueandtorecognizetheirlegitimaterightsforwhichtheyhavesubmittedhugesacrifices.Thus, theKurdswillhave independence insidetheKurdishregion,whichispartoftheonestateofIraqthatwillensurepeace,

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security and stability inside Iraq andoutsideof it.Thiswoulddispel fear of abreak-upofIraqandwouldemphasizetheprinciplesofdemocracyandfreedomthatcannotbeobtainedinadictatorialsystembecausefederalismanddemocracyareinterrelated.StabilityandpeacecannotbesecuredinfuturefederalIraqwithoutrecognizingthefollowingbases;1. Ensure respect for democratic freedoms such as freedom of opinion,

expression,thoughts,assembling,belief,peacefulcongregationandthelikes.2. Ensurerespectfortransferofpowerbypeacefulmeansthoughthefreeand

democraticelections.3. Respect for theprincipleofmulti-politicalpartiesand forpeacefulpolitical

opposition.4. Emphasize the separation of powers among the legislative, executive and

judicialbranchesofgovernment.5. Separationofstateandreligion.6. Maintaintheindependenceofthejudicialbranchofgovernment.7. Separatethemilitaryestablishmentfrompoliticsandpartyaffiliation.8. Establish High federal constitutional court in charge of overseeing the

applicationoflaworthebreachoflawinlightoftheruleoflaw.9. Grantequalrightsforwomentothatofmaninrightsandresponsibilities,also

securethemaintenanceofchild’s,handicappedandelderlyrights.10.Ensurefreedomofreligiousbelief.Institutetheprincipleofreligious,ethnic

and intellect tolerance. Respect for human rights in accordance to theinternationalcharterforhumanrightsandotherinternationaldeclarations.

FIRST - THE KURDISH POSITION IN FUTURE IRAQ

TheKurdishpositionseesthesolutiontotheKurdishissuethroughtheirinde-pendence inmanaging theaffairsofKurdistanRegion.Theconstitutionalrela-tionshipbetweentheKurdsandtheArabsoughttoberegulatedthroughafederalformofgovernmentafterthesimpleformisdismantledandacompoundfederalunion isestablished.Thiswillensure that theKurdswillmanage theaffairsoftheirregionandparticipateinthepoliticaldecision-makingprocessofthecentralfederalgovernmentbasedonthedecentralizationofauthoritiesandpolicies.TherestoftheethnicgroupssuchastheTurkuman,Assyrian,andothersenjoyfullcitizenship,parliamentaryandjudicialrightswhethertheylivedintheAra-bicregionsortheKurdishregion.Theserightsincludetheuseoftheirnationallanguage in special schools, establishing theirpoliticalparties,publishing theirownnewspapersandfullyrepresentingandparticipatinginthelegislative,execu-tiveandjudicialbranchesofgovernment.Theserightsareregulatedthroughthe

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constitutionandaspecialdecreeforregulatingtherightsandresponsibilitiesofethnicgroups.TheseprinciplesaredeclaredinthedraftpresentedbytheKurdishleadership.

SECOND - POLITICAL PARTIES, MOVEMENTS ANDINDEPENDENTS POSITION TO FEDERALISM

Iraqi political parties, movements and independents that participated in Sala-huldeenConference in1992adoptedFederalismasa solution for theKurdishissue,whichhasdrainedIraq’sresourcesandaffectedpeaceandstabilityinthearea.Moreover,manyIraqipoliticalparties,movementsandindependentshaveopenlydeclaredtheFederaloptionthroughtheirdeclarations,publicationsandannouncementssuchas;1. IraqiCommunistParty.2. SupremeCouncilfortheIslamicRevolutioninIraq.3. IraqiNationalCoalition.4. IraqiNationalCongress.5. MilitaryConferenceorganizedbytheMilitaryCoalitioninJuly2002.6. FreeIraqCouncil.7. DeclarationforIraqiShiite.8. ManyIndependentIraqiPoliticalFigures.

THIRD - THE POSITION OF OTHER ETHNIC GROUPS(TURKUMAN, ASSYRIAN AND OTHERS)

1. thePositionoftheTurkuman;DistinctionmustbemadebetweentwopartsofTurkuman;thefirstpartrepresentsthemajorityofTurkuman,liveinpeaceand tolerance in Kurdistan, they are represented in the Kurdish RegionalParliament,participateintheRegionalGovernmentandenjoyfullcitizenshiprightsasmentionedabove.Thepositionof thisgroupofTurkumanisclearandknown;theyrespectthestrongbindwithKurds,ArabsandAssyrian.TheyhaverealattachmenttothesoilofIraqandhavenoproblemwiththeKurdsenjoyingFederalismagainstsecuringtheircitizenshiprights.Thesecondpartrepresentsaminority,aretheTurkumanFront,whichhasstrongtiestoTurkey.Thisgroupdemandsself-independencewithinalargeillegitimategeographicalborder.

2. ThePositionoftheAssyrian;thisgroupisinvolvedinabattleoverhistoricalidentityamongthemselves.TheAssyrianbelievethattheyandtheChaldeanare from the sameethnicoriginwhile someChaldean reject thisnotionof

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ethnic assimilation. This group live in the Kurdish Region and the ArabicRegion.TheonesintheKurdishRegionenjoyfullcitizenshiprightssimilartotheTurkuman,whiletheonesintheArabicRegionsufferfromdictatorship,whichpersecuteallIraqisofallethnicbackgrounds.

RisksandHurdles;1. The Turkish Position; The objections made by Turkey through public

announcementsand the threat toenterandoccupyKurdistan-Iraq isbasedontheassumptionthataFederalKurdistanoraKurdishStaterepresentsadangertothenationalsecurityofTurkey.Therearegraveinternalproblemswith the Kurdish population inside Turkey whereby the Kurds human andnational rightsareabused.Moreover,Turkeydemandsethnic rights for theTurkumanandistryingtofindaself-governmentorafederalgovernmentforthemdespitethelackoflegalbasisforthat.

2. Some Iraqi Opposition; Some Iraqi Opposition parties may not accept theconceptofFederalismpresentedbytheKurdsastheyseefitinlightoftheirlegitimaterightforself-determination.ThefearisthatFederalismisthebreak-upofIraq;thereforesomeoftheIraqiOppositionsubmitsadifferenttypeofFederalism,whichdoesnotconformtoIraq’ssociety.Finally,noIraqiGroupiswillingtosacrificeFederalismespeciallytheonesthatfollowademocraticpath.

3. The Kurdish House; The rift inside the Kurdish house is preventing theFederalism for being applied. The last meeting between the two KurdishParties (October 2002), the KDP and the PUK is playing a major role inremoving these rifts, helping establish Federalism and draw the new Iraqcorrectly.

4. The struggle forKurdishKirkuk;which is inhabitedbyamajorityKurdishpopulation(48%)asperthe1957census.

Recommendations,LegalandPoliticalSolutions;1. International Guarantees for Respecting and Applying Federalism; Any

application for Federalism in future Iraq needs international guarantees toensurestability,securityandrespectfortheKurdishchoiceinitsrelationshipwiththeArabicRegionsandwiththeotherminorities.TheseguaranteesneedtobepresentedbytheUSAtoavoidbreachintheformandstructureoftheFederal State of Iraq and the new civil rule. International guarantees shalldispelconcernfromallethnicsandreligiousgroupsinfutureIraq.

2. InternalGuarantees;isachievedthroughadeclarationbytheIraqiOppositionfor Federalism for the Kurdish People on Kurdistan Region, during theirGeneralMeetingscheduledforNovember2002.TheFederalchoiceneedsto

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bepartoftheworksofthenextTransitionGovernmentinpostSaddamIraqinaccordancetotheproposedfederalconstitutionforthestateofIraq.

3. SolvingtheKurdishIssueisKeytoSolvingtheIraqiIssue;throughbuildingdemocraticprinciples,respectforhumanrightsanddemocraticinstitutions,recognition for all ethnic groups without discrimination based on origin,language, religion and others in accordance to the legal and constitutionalrightsinthenewIraq.Democracyisnottheruleofthemajority,butistheruleofallandtheparticipationofall.

Basedontheaboveprelude,theconstitutionneedstobebasedonaunionamongTHREEregions;(TwoArabicRegionsandOneKurdishRegion):

-FIRST:ConstitutionforFederalIraq-SECOND:ConstitutionforKurdistanRegion-THIRD:ConstitutionforArabicRegionintheSouthbasedongeography-FOURTH:ConstitutionforArabicRegionintheMiddlebasedongeography.

Naturally, theoption forFederalism for Iraq is an application for theKurdishpeopleright forself-determinationandthustheKurdishpeoplewilldecidethenatureof therelationshipwiththeArabicRegionswithouttheneedtoasktheArabs throughareferendumabout theirposition inregards toFederalismasafutureoption,buttohaveareferendumforadraftpermanentconstitutionfortheFederalStateofIraq.ConsequentlyseparatereferendaareneededforRegionalConstitutionsforeachRegion.

LegislativeAuthority:(ParliamentsRequiredinFederalIraq)-FIRST-CentralFederalParliament(LegislativeFederalAuthority)1.Representatives’Council2.RegionalCouncils-SECOND-LocalParliamentElectedinKurdistan(LegislativeAuthority)-THIRD-LocalParliamentElectedinArabicRegionintheSouth-FOURTH-LocalParliamentElectedinArabicRegionintheMiddle

ExecutiveAuthorityforCentralFederalState:-FIRST-PresidentoftheState(CeremonialPositionfora4-yeartermsubjecttoonetimeextension).-SECOND-CouncilofMinisters(UpperExecutiveAuthority)

UpperFederalConstitutionalCourt(basedinBaghdad)looksintospecificcasessuchas;-TheelectedPresidentshallreadtheoathofofficeinfrontoftheheadand

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committeeofthiscourt.-Lookintoandtakeresolutionsinregardstoconflictsamongtheregionsorbetweenaregion(s)andtheFederalgovernment.

Authority’sBorders:ThebordersbetweentheKurdishRegionandtheArabicRegionsshallconformtotheproposalsubmittedbytheKurdishleadership(DraftfortheConstitutionfortheFederalStateofIraq)–Thebaseforthesaidbordersisgeographic.RightforOtherEthnics(Turkuman,Assyrianandothers)Their rightsareguaranteed through thecitizenshiprights inaccordance to theconstitution,lawandinternationalguaranteesreferredtoabove.ResponsibilitiesoftheFederalGovernment;1. Drawtheforeignpolicyanddiplomaticandconsulaterepresentation.2. Signinternationaltreatiesandagreements.3. Defenceandarmedforceswhereasthearmyisfordefenceandnotoffence,

joining the military needs to be voluntary and not compulsory for bothgenders.

4. Printthenationalcurrencyplanthebankreservepolicyandexecutefederalloans.

5. Economicanddevelopmentplanning.6. ManagetheGeneralBalanceofPayment.7. GeneralFederalSecurity.8. Citizenship,immigrationandresidencyforforeignnationals.9. Powerandnationalresources.

THE ADVANTAGES TO A FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

There are many advantages to a federal democratic republic especially in Iraqwherewecanfindmulti-Ethnics,differentreligionsanddifferentopinions.Feder-alismdoesnotexistinadictatorregime.InIraqtherearetwomainnationalities(Arabs and Kurds) besides the other minorities such as (Turkuman, Assyrian,Arman).FederalismshouldthereforebecomeacornerstoneofthenewIraqibodylegal-poli-tics.FederalismalsoabolishesthediscriminationbetweenthedifferentnationalitiesinIraq,distributetheequityandjusticeandrespecthumanrights.Itcanconfirmtheparticipationinauthoritiesbetweenregionsgovernments.Thereforefederalismhasmanyadvantagesincountries,whichhasdifferentnationalitiesandreligions.ItisthebestsolutionfortheIraqiproblemsespeciallytheconflictsbetweenIraqigovernmentandtheKurdforseveraldecades.ThemostimportantadvantagetoafederalismdemocraticrepublicistokeeptheunityoftheIraqistate.

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Whichcivilandpolitical rightsshouldbeenumerated inIraq’s futureconstitu-tion?ThecivilrightsthatshouldbeenumeratedinIraq’sfutureconstitutionare:1. Theliferight.2. Therightofthephysicalsafety.3. Thethinkingandtheexpressionfreedom.4. Therightofthereligiousbeliefandthenon-religiousbeliefandtherightof

changingreligiousbelief.5. Theagreementfreedom.6. Themoveandtravelrightwithoutrestrictions.7. Therightofownershipandnon-confiscationofproperties.8. Eachpersonshouldhaveanationality.Andshouldnotbedroppeddoesfrom

him.9. The correspondences and communications secrecy right without any

espionagefromanyauthority.10.Andmanyotherrightswhicharementionedintheinternationaldeclaration

ofhumanrights.

Whichwomen’srightsshouldbehighlightedinthefutureofIraq?Thewomen’srightsthatshouldbehighlightedare:1. Thecompleteequalityintherightsandthedutieswiththeman.2. Theworkrightbyequalwageswiththeman.3. Therightofequalchancesbetweenthemanandthewoman.4. The body protection right from any violence treatment, rape crimes and

circumcision.5. TheRightofhusbandselection.6. Protectionfromthehonourkilling.7. Protectionfromthepolygamy.8. Thekindergartenrights.9. TheRightoffreetravelandmovementwithoutlimits(withoutMohram).10.Therightofundertakingofallofthepoliticalpositionsandthejudicialand

administrativeone.11.Therightofvotingandcandidature.12.ProtectionRight from thecoercionon themarriage.And the rightofnon-

marriagebeforethematurity.13.TheabortionRight.14.Lawlegislationaboutsexualharassmentisneeded.

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IN HOC SIGNO VINCESRELIGIOUS SYMBOLISM IN THE BALKAN WARS 1991-1995

Dr Mitja VelikonjaAssistant ProfessorFaculty of Social SciencesUniversity of Ljubljana, Slovenia

See now, how men lay blame upon us Gods for what is after all nothing but their own folly.

Homer, The Odyssey, 1st Book

DISCOURSE OF IRRATIONALIZATION

SomeofthemostcommonexplanationsfortheBalkanwarsofthe1990shavebeenthattheywere,inthefinalinstance,religiouswars,ortheconsequenceofnationalincompatibilitiesandculturaldifferences,orareturnofoldmyths,orathirstforrevengeforhistoricalinjustices,orthelogicalresultofthebloodthirsty»nationalcharacter«of theBalkanpeoples,etc.Deliberatelyornot,both localandforeigncommentatorsperceivedthesedevelopmentsasbeingrationallyinex-plicable,spontaneous,completelyunreasonable,contrarytoanysense.Insharpcontrastto–forexample–theGulfwar,theBalkanwarswerecomprehendedandportrayedasobscure,dirty,mean,uncivilised,cruel,etc.Needlesstosay,everysocialaction–inourcasewar-hasparallel»rational«and»irrational«dimensionswhichmustbestudiedcarefully.Belligerentgroupswereveryoftenfromdifferentreligiousandideologicalbackgrounds.Ifwelimitour-selvestothe»profanized«20thcentury,wefindmythicconstructs,religiousrheto-ricandarchaiciconographyatdifferenttimesandindifferentpartsoftheworld.Many nations perceived themselves as the Most Ancient, even Holy, Sacred,Heavenly,as theChristamongnations,as theElected,oronaGod-givenmis-siontofulfil;othersareself-declaredwarrantsofdemocracyorculturednations;military campaigns were labelled Crusades; various dictators were glorified asbeingsent(orchosen)byGodHimself,orastheincorporationoftheWilloftheNation;politiciansoftenrefertoreligioustraditionandvaluesandswearbeforeGodattheirinauguration;thestruggleoftheproletariatagainsttherulingclasseswasinterpretedintermsofacosmicstrugglebetweenGoodandEvil;HolyWarswerefoughtindifferentpartsoftheworldbydifferentreligiousfundamentalists;thecleansingoftheirdifferentenemieswasconstitutiveformanynewstatesandrégimes;an“EternalAlliesversusEternalEnemies”oppositioncouldbefoundonmanyofthewarringsides,ascouldthenotionoftheLastBastionofthereligionorcivilization inquestion;borderswereperceivedas sacred,historic,untouch-

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able;enemieswereoftendemonized,animalised,bestialisedetc.It is, of course, not my intention to exonerate belligerent South Slav religiousnationalists–IdisapproveofthemasmuchasIdoofanyothermilitantsorfunda-mentalists.IsimplywishtoemphasisethatthebattlecryInhocsignovinceswasheardacrosstheworldthroughoutthe»ageoftheextremes«,toborrowaphrasefrom Eric Hobsbawm. In other words, the catastrophic Hobbesian war of allagainstalliscertainlynotsomekindofBalkanpeculiarity,noristhesignificanceoftheroleofreligion,itsrhetoricanditssymbols.Therefore,thesamequestionsmust be asked anytime suchphenomenaappear anywhere in theworld.Otherthan thehastyandoverly simplistic explanationsmentionedabove, I viewandtreattheuse–ormisuse-ofreligiousiconography,symbolsanddiscourse,andmythologicalrhetoricinthelastBalkanwarsinthefollowingcontext:asaveryspecificversionorandregionalmanifestationofthebroaderphenomenaofthereligionizationofpolitics,thenation,place,time,neighbouringgroups,etc.Inmyopinion,the»irrationalization«oftheBalkanwarsinfirsthalfofthenine-ties(un)intentionallyhidestheirmainmotivesandcauseswhich,inchronologicalorder,areasfollows:firstly,theplantoreuniteYugoslaviaundertheleadershipofthenon-reformistsegmentsoftheLeagueofCommunistsandArmyhard-lin-ers;secondly,promptedalsobytheineffectivepoliciesoftheinternationalcom-munity,thegreat-nationalpoliciesandaggressionstowardsCroatiaandBosnia-Herzegovina.Allthesegoals-reunitarizationandterritorialconquests-andthemethodsinwhichtheywererealisedwereundoubtedlystrategicallywellorgan-ized,»rational«andpre-planned.TheobviousattemptstoirrationalizerecentBalkanhistory–i.e.,toreducetheconflicttoamatterofnationalistmadnessandreligiouszeal,toaspontaneousand somewhatnaive barbarity, a revival of age-old hatreds, etc. - combine twoparticularaspects.Firstly,thetheoretical,isthediscourseofOrientalismandthethesis-oneofthemostpopularisedinthe1990s-ofunavoidableculturalconflictsinthecontemporaryworld(inplaceofthepoliticalandideologicalconflictsofbygoneeras).Thesecondispolitical: thedeliberateavoidanceofresponsibilityandfeignedignorancebythemainculpritsforthewar.

INSTRUMENTALIZED OR INSTRUMENTALIZING?

Ifwelimitourselvestothereligiousaspectsofthewars,wearefacedwithafun-damentaldilemma.Werereligionsandreligiouscommunitiesandsymbolsusedbynationalistpolitics/policiesintheirgrandnationalistschemes?Or,conversely,didtheyexploitnationalisteuphoriaandpoliciesinachievingtheirownreligiousgoals?Weretheyinstrumentalizedordidtheyinstrumentalize?Inshort,didtheyplayanactiveorpassiveroleinthemostrecentBalkanhistory?

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Ithinkboth.Myanswertothesequestionmightseemparadoxicalonlyinitially.Tocertainreligiousintegrists,politicaldevelopmentsinthelate1980sandearly1990spresentedanexcellentopportunityforthelong-awaitedre-Christianizationandre-Islamizationof thenational,politicalandcultural identityof»their«na-tions, and the reaffirmationof theirdominantposition in society.Thealreadybelatedmodernistdifferentiationandpluralizationofthesesocietiesseemedtohavelosttoradicalpre-modernistde-differentiation.Religiousinstitutionsrapidlybecameanimportantpartofthedominantnational/political/religious/culturalmeta-platformandstrategy.Thistotal–andtotalitarian -alliancebetweennationalistpoliciesandreligiouscommunitiesandinstitutionswasoneofmutualbenefit:national,politicaland,ultimately,militarymobilizationcouldnotbeachievedwithoutreligiouslegitima-tion, whilst, on the other hand, religious communities were unable to achievetheirgoalswithouttheactivesupportofnationalistpartiesandpoliticsingeneral.Religiouselementsbecameanimportantpartoftheprocessof»theethnificationofpoliticsandthepoliticizationofethnicity«(asdescribedbyVrcan,2001).Inotherwords:inthisintegristicprocessofreligio-nationalre-traditionalization,theoneneededandstrengthenedtheother:religiousinstitutionslentlegitimacytoandopenedperspectivesforchauvinistpolitics,andviceversa.Or,inthewordsofRadovanKaradžić,notasingleimportantdecisionwasmadewithouttheChurch(Mojzes,1998,89;forasimilarquotation,seeRadić,1998,176,177).Likewise,Bosnianex-FranciscanProvincialPetarAnđelovićadmitsthattheChurchinitiallysupportedthemajorCroatianpoliticalparty,butlaterreverseditspoliciesandbe-camecriticalofit(Anđelović,2000,207,208).ThemajorMuslim/BosniakpartywasalsoinfluencedbyPanislamictraditionalistgroupingsandcurrentswithintheBosnianIslamicreligiouscommunity(seeBougarel,1999;L.Cohen,1998,58;Zulfikarpašić,1995).ThelongBalkantraditionofpluralismdatestotheMiddleAges:theBalkanshavebeenaplaceofmeeting,symbiosis,conflict,collaboration,syncretism,etc.,forseveralreligions(anddifferentsectswithinthem):RomanCatholic,Orthodox,Muslim, Bosnian Church, Jewish, Uniate (Greek Catholic), and some others.Inclearcontrast to their self-declareduniversalisticcharacter , religions in theBalkans(aselsewhere!)feignedspecificregional,national,localcharacteristics:theywere/areall»ethnicized«or»nationalized« inasimilarway.Thisbecomesparticularly obvious in the religio-national mythologies of these nations. TheChristoslavicreligio-nationalmythology–inourcasethatoftheSerbsandCroats–consistsof twobasicbeliefs: thatSlavsareChristianbynatureand thatanyconversionfromChristianityisabetrayaloftheSlavicrace(Sells1996,36,47,51).Inshort,ChristoslavismrepresentsradicalOrthodoxPan-SerbianorCatholicPan-Croatianmythology,whoseultimategoalisamono-confessional,nationally

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(andpreferablypolitically)homogenizedstate.But almost identical mytho-logic can be observed also on the third side: ac-cordingto theadvocatesof theBosniakreligio-national integristmythology,allBosniaks are inevitably Muslims. One-and-a-half years before the outbreak ofwar, Izetbegović characterized the Muslims/Bosniaks as a religious nation (L.Cohen,1998,60).Althoughtheroleandinfluenceofreligiouscommunitiesandhierarchiesbeforeandduring the lastwars inCroatiaandBosnia-Herzegovinawerequitedifferent, all thewarringpartiesalsoemployed religious symbols intheirnationalist/politicalmobilizationandmilitaryefforts.Asarule,dominantreligiouscommunitiessidedwiththemajorpoliticalpartiesof»their«nations.InBosnia-Herzegovina,theresultofsuchcollectivepoliticsonalargelysecularizedpopulationsoonbecameevident.Opinionsaboutthenationalistandmilitaristicroleofreligiouscommunities intheBalkansfromthelate1980sdifferconsiderablyfromauthortoauthor.How-ever,themajorityclaimthattheroleoftheSerbianOrthodoxChurchwas»themostharmful«(Mojzes,1998,84),incomparisontotheothertwomajorreligiouscommunities.SellsevenpointsoutthatinBosnia,theSerbianOrthodoxChurchbecame a servant of religious nationalist militancy (Sells, 1996, 79), and - atthebeginning -supportedSlobodanMilošević’spolitics(Markotich,1996,30).According toL.Cohen, theRomanCatholichierarchy inCroatia andBosnia-HerzegovinawasinclinedtowardsthelargestCroatianpoliticalparty,whichwasopenlypro-Christian,butalsowishedtopreserveitshard-wonautonomy(L.Co-hen,1998,63).InBosnia-Herzegovina,therewereconsiderabledifferencesinthisregardbetweenthestandsofCatholicclergyandtheFranciscansinHerzegovinaandinBosnia.ForBougarel,theroleoftheIslamicCommunityinthenationalistmobilizationoftheBosniakswasparticularlyblatant(Bougarel,1996,96).

RELIGIOUS SYMBOLISM IN THE BALKAN WARS

Onlyifwerecognisethesimilaritiesbetweenthebroaderphenomenacanweem-phasisethespecificcharacteristicsofacertainprocessorarea.MypresentationwillconcentrateonlyononeaspectoftherecentBalkanwars,namely,thespec-trumofuseofreligioussymbolismbythethreewarringsides:OrthodoxontheSerbian,RomanCatholicontheCroatianandIslamicontheBosniakside.Theseexamplesmustbetreatedandunderstoodinabroadercontextoftheabove-men-tioned integrist, religio-national mythologies, Christoslavic or Muslim/Bosniak.A comparative and socio-historical analytical approach can, to some degree,elucidatehowtraditionalreligioussymbolswererenewedandhownewreligioussymbolswere»traditionalized«duringthatperiod;howtheywere»nationalized«and»politicized«;what elementsof religiousheritageweremostoftenapplied;

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andhowthesesymbolswereexploitedformilitaryoperationsandthepoliticsofethnic/religiouscleansing.Duetorestrictionsonspace,Ishallonlypresentthebasisforafurther,moreprofoundanalysis.

1. UseoftraditionalreligioussymbolsUniversalreligioussymbols(thecrossfortheOrthodoxandCatholic;theCres-cent,thecolourgreen,andQur’anicinscriptions),orreligioussymbolsthathadalready been »nationalized« (e.g., the Serbian Orthodox symbol /four S-es sur-roundingacross/,orthecombinationofthecrossandtheCroatiancoat-of-arms/theso-calledchessboard/),wereusedregularlybythewarringsides,eitherin-dividuallyoraspartofbroaderpoliticalormilitarysymbolism.Theywerewornonuniforms,aspersonalmilitarydecor(e.g.,badgesbearingreligioussymbols,greenbandstiedaroundtheforeheadwith(out)Qur’anicinscriptions,rosaries),and on military equipment and weapons, flags etc. Uniforms and appearanceweresometimesinspiredbyreligiousorreligio-nationaltradition,e.g.,beardsandIslamicoutfitsontheBosniakside,andChetnik-likeattireontheSerbianside.SomeBosniakmilitaryunitsassumednamesthatwereinspiredbytheirreligion,andinwhichrigorousreligiouscustomswerepractised(e.g., theGreenBerets,ElMujahidin,theGreenLegion,MuslimBrigades).AmongtheirnumberwerevolunteersfromvariousIslamicstates.

2. UseoftraditionalreligiousslogansandsalutationSomeofthemostcommontraditionalreligiousslogansandsynthagmasusedinmilitaryandnationalistrhetoricoverthe last tenyearshavebeenGodandtheCroats;GodprotectstheSerbs;ASerbisprotectedbySt.SavaandGod;GodismostGreat,etc.SalutationsincludedSohelpyouGod,Heroes!,thethree-fingerSerbianOrthodoxsalute,benedictionunderthesignofthecross,theuseoftheexpressionsbrothersandsisters,andmanymore.Armychaplains–ChristianandMuslim-weretobefoundinalmosteverymilitaryunit;religiouspractices,cus-tomsandsymbolswereintroducedtomilitarylife,barracksandunits.Religiousservicesand rituals– including theblessingofunitsandweapons -wereoftenconductedbylocalreligiousdignitaries;themostimportantservicesandritualswereconductedbyseniorclergymen,suchasbishops.Theyregularlyvisitedtheirtroopsintheliberatedterritories.Onsuchoccasions,theimagesof(erstwhile)politicalleadersandmilitarycommandersweredisplayedalongsideicons,imagesofimportantreligiouspersonalitiesandsymbols.Thesitesofdramatichistoricandreligiouseventsbecamethedestinationsandsitesofreligio-nationalpilgrimagesandrituals(MedjugorjefortheCroats,Ajva-tovicafor theBosniaks, thetombsofsecond-world-warUstashavictimsfor theSerbs);religiousfeastswereturnedintonationalholidays(Easter,Assumption,

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Christmas,St.Vitus’Day,theBajram,commemorationofthebattleofBadr,andthenightoftheMight)andwerecelebratedinpublicbuildings.Marchingsongsandpoliticalhymnsdeclaredreligio-nationalunityandunanimity.Ontheeveofwar,theskeletalremainsoffallenandtorturedcompatriotsfromwereexhumedandrituallyreburied; theceremonialprocessioncarryingthere-mainsofPrinceLazar throughSerbiaproper,KosovoandBosnia-Herzegovinain1988wasofasimilarnature.Anumberofhigh-rankingreligiousdignitaries-victimsof thesecondworldwarorpost-warviolence,whowere torturedandkilledforreligiousandnationalcauses-werecanonized:OrthodoxMetropoliteDositeljVasićandbishopsPetarZimonjić,SavaTrljajićandPlatonJovanovićinJune1998,andCatholicCardinalAlojzijeStepinacinOctoberofthesameyear.InsomeofthemoremilitantCroatianRomanCatholiccircles,similarhomagewasconferredonanumberofimportantpersonalitiesfromthewartimeUstasharégime,andontheSerbianside,toChetnikcommanders.Contemporarypoliticalandmilitaryleadersreceivedaflatteringreligiousrepu-tationaswell:KaradžićandRatkoMladićweresaidtobefollowingthethornypathofChrist.ThefirstreceivedadecorationfromtheGreekOrthodoxChurch,whichdeclaredhimoneof themostprominent sonsofourLordJesusChristworkingforpeace(Sells,1996,85).Similarcourtesies,exaltationandconsecra-tionwereaffordedbyhigh-rankingOrthodoxdignitariestoanothercontroversialprotagonistoftheBalkanwars–ŽeljkoRažnatovićArkan.ForsomeIslamicbe-lievers,IzetbegovićbecameafighterforIslam,sentbyGodtoleadtheMuslimsalongthetruepath(Zulfikarpašić,1995,144,172),thefirstpersonafterMuham-madtorevealandfulfiltheultimatetruth(MiroslavJančićinMojzes,1998,94).SaudiKingFahdawardedIzetbegovićwithamedal forhiscontribution to thespreadofIslam.

3. InterpretationofpoliticaldevelopmentsinreligioustermsAsHastingspointsout(1997,18),»theBible,moreover,presentedinIsraelitselfadevelopedmodelofwhatitmeanstobeanation–aunityofpeople,language,religion,territoryandgovernment«.IntheBalkans,historicalandcontemporarydevelopmentswereinterpretedinreligiousterms:analogiesweremadebetweencontemporariesandepisodesandpersonalitiesfromtheScripturesorthereligioushistoryoftheirownnation.InsomeOrthodoxcircles,forexample,theSerbswerereferredtoasChrist’sNation,theHolyorSufferingNation,theBearersoftheTruthandDivineJustice,theavant-gardeoftheSlavworldandOrthodoxy.SerbiawasagainreferredtoasHeavenly,etc.SimilarconstructswerealsotobefoundontheCroatianside(EternalorHolyCroatia;protectedbytheVirginMary).ThetriumphantCroatianmilitaryoperation»Tempest« inAugust1995was seenastestimonythatthisnation(Croatia,remarkbyMV)isatcertaintimestouchedby

30

God(Vrcan,2001,footnote11onpage207).Inbothcases,tragicepisodesfromthepastandpresentofbothnationshavebeenvariously interpreted as Golgotha, the Crucifixion, Calvary or the Way of theCross,theirlandhasbeendeclaredSacred,asourJerusalemorourPalestine,etc.Theself-victimizingdiscourse–suchas»onlyournation/religionsuffers«–excul-patedpoliticalactionandmilitaryoperations.InKaradžić’swords,ourdeaths,sufferingandendurance,weacceptasGod’sgrace(Powers,1998,236).BosnianMuslimsweresaidtobemakingsacrificestosafeguardIslambyidentifyingitsenemies(Zulfikarpašić,1995,172).Asarule,politicaldecisionsandmilitaryoperationsreceivedreligiousargumenta-tionandlegitimation,andwereopenlysupportedbysomereligiousmediaandinpublicstatementsmadebyreligiousdignitaries.Thus,theywereexaltedasactions-forexample-inthenameofGod,ManifestationsoftheFaith,StruggleforChristandEurope,SacredDuty,self-defence,warofliberation,fightfortheHolyCross,etc. Fallen soldiers became martyrs or Knights of the Faith (and the Nation)whomadevoluntarysacrificesfortheirreligionandnationinthestruggleagainsttheinfidels.Theirtombsandmonumentsweredesignedasreligiousobjects(informandwithreligiousinscriptionsandsymbols,etc.).Allsidessearchedforthehelpoftheirco-religionists,whosuddenlybecameAncientifnotEternalAllies:therewereinitiativestocreateaso-calledOrthodoxCircle(anassociationofallcountrieswithanOrthodoxmajority),oranarrowerBalkanOrthodoxUnion;theBosniaks»discovered«along-lastingfriendshipwithMuslim(Arabic)coun-tries;whilsttheCroatsfoundthesameinWestern(Catholic)countriesandtheVatican.

4. DemonizationoftheenemyInreligio-nationalpoliciesandmilitaryoperations,thefirststeptowardsthede-structionoftheenemyistheirsymbolicinferiorizationanddehumanization.Intheracistdiscourse,theybecomesinferior,animal-likecreatures;inthereligio-na-tionaldiscourse,theyarecursedbyGod.Thisinfernalizatonanddemonizationofadversarieswascharacteristictoallthreesides:asthoughentrappedinsomekindof“laboratoryofhatred”,theenemywascondemnedasgenocidal,diabolical,etc.Myths about religious conspiracies emerged: for Serbian religious nationalists,thesewereabouttheVatican(andGerman)plot,andthePope’sservants-Italy,AustriaandGermany;theconspiracyofWesternPowers;theGreenTransversal(Ankara-Tirana-Sarajevo)and theconspiraciesby Islamic fundamentalists (andUstashabutchers).If we limit ourselves only to insults related to religious identities, the Serbianextremists (and the Croatian during Croatian-Bosniak clashes) labelled theBosniaks as jihad fighters, mujahidins, janissaries, brothers in fez, whose final

31

ambition was to turn Bosnia into a state modelled on the Qur’an, an Islamicfundamentaliststate,oraLibya-styleJamahiriyah,inwhichnon-Muslimswouldbecome slaves, etc. In the chauvinistic media, Izetbegović became the world’sforemostsoldierofthejihadortheleaderoftheMuslimterrorists.Croatreligiousnationalists fearedOrthodoxconspiraciesorallegedplans tocreatean IslamicstateinBosnia-Herzegovina.AlarmistdiscoursealsoappearedinsomeBosniakcircles, which identified evil-minded plots, the Crusades launched by both en-emiessidesandbyaChristianEurope.Thus,religio-nationalistextremistsfromallsidesjustifiedtheirpoliciesnotonlyasadefenceoftheirownnation,butalsoasshields,lastbastionsorfortressesof–respectively–theOrthodox,CatholicandMuslimworld.Anobsessiveparanoiaofbeingsurroundedbytheenemies(ofthefaith)triumphed.AsHobsbawmwrote,“thereisnomoreeffectivewayofbond-ingtogetherthedisparatesectionsofrestlesspeoplesthantounitethemagainstoutsiders”(Hobsbawm,1995,91).If our faith is theonly right and righteous one, then that of the enemy (or ofreligiousminoritieswithintheirownnations)isscornedasbeingfalse,foreign,heretical,superstitious,andevensacrilegious.Accordingtothislogicofsymbolicdiades,theeliminationofotherfaiths–religiousandethniccleansing-becameareligiousduty;killingisnolongerconsideredas“homicide”,butasa“malicide”,theliquidationoftheevil.Manyclericswerekilledorinjuredduringtheclashesandethniccleansingcampaigns.However,politicaladversariesandcriticswithinanationwerealsodemonizedbymilitantreligiousnationalists:forexample,afterabandoninghisGreaterSerbianpolicy,MiloševićwascharacterizedastheAnti-christfromDedinje,hisideologyassombreandhisrégimeasalientoOrthodoxtraditionandtheessenceoftheSerbiannation(whereasthoseinKninandPalewereexemplary).AccordingtoPanislamistLatić,secularizedBosniakintellectu-alsaremoredangeroustousthantheChetniks(Bougarel,2000,90).Non-integrist ideas,politicalpartiesand individualswerealsomany timescon-demnedbyreligiousnationalistsonallthreesidesasatheistic,nihilistic,a(nti)-national,foreign,modernist,pro-Western,liberal,left-oriented,etc.Similarly,theSocialistrégimewasperceivedasbeing(in)directlyresponsiblefortheoutbreakofhatredandviolencebecauseofitsdesertionoftheBible/Qur’anandbecauseof its immorality and Godless, soulless, secularist and anti-Serb/Croat/Muslimorientation.Thefalseanddangerouslogicthatthereexistsonlyonetypeofcon-flict,namely,betweenfaithandnihilism,andthatExtraEcclesiamnullasalus,reappeared.

5. Destructionoftheenemy’ssacralobjectsInmilitaristlogic,victoryiscompletewhenitisaccompaniedwiththesymbolictriumphover theenemy.Thebuildings thatweremostoften systematicallyde-

32

stroyedthroughoutthewarsinCroatiaandBosnia-Herzegovina-eitherinmili-taryoperationsorfollowingconquest-werereligiousobjects:mosques,churches,chapels,monasteriesetc.Accordingtosomeestimates,1,000to1,100mosqueswereruined,inadditiontoapproximately340Orthodoxand450RomanCatho-licchurchesandmonasteries(Powers,1998,footnote68onpage240;Velikonja,1998, 309). As has been the case throughout history, the religious symbols ofthe conquerors were built over the ruins of the sanctuaries of the vanquished.Territorymustbesymbolicallyappropriatedandthesignofvictory“engravedinstone”:e.g.,CroatianforceserectedahugeconcretecrossinplaceofadestroyedmosqueinPočitelj(Vrcan,2001,22).Firsttoraze,firsttoerect:itisalsoverysymptomaticthatsacralbuilding(church-es,mosques,etc.)wereamongthefirstobjectstoberestoredorrebuiltafterthewar.Reconstructionwasoftensponsoredbyforeigncountriesortheirreligiouscommunities (Greek Orthodox Church, Islamic Community /often from fromSaudiArabia/,RomanCatholicChurchetc.).ThefirstsynagoguetobebuiltinBosnia-Herzegovinaafter1945isexpectedtobecompletedinMostarbytheendof2002;thefoundationstonewaslaidinearlyMay2001.Suchreconstructionispracticallyimpossibleonterritoryconqueredbytheadversary:therecenteventsinTrebinjeonMay5andBanjaLukaonMay7,2001-whenSerbianextremistsheld violent protests against the ceremonies at which foundations were to belaid fornewmosques intendedtoreplace thedestroyedones -aresadandnotuncommonexamples.These(andotherlessobvious)examplesclearlyshowthatinpost-DaytonBosnia-Herzegovina-hereIinvertClausewitz -peaceisjustthecontinuationofthewar»withothermeans«.6.EloquentsilenceInsuchsituations,thatwhichisnotutteredisasimportantasthatwhichis:si-lencecanbemoreeloquentthanwords.Notonlyexplicit,butalsoanother–indi-rect–symbolicactofreligiousinstitutionsmustbepointedouthere:namely,theirsinistersilenceregardingtheobviousandsystematicpersecutionandliquidationofbelieversofotherfaiths,andthedestructionoftheir(religious)infrastructure.In other words, significant was not only »hate-speech« but also »hate-silence«.Onlyrarelyhavethemoderaterepresentativesofthereligioushierarchiesreactedandcondemnedtheactcommittedbytheircompatriots/co-religionists,distancedthemselvesfromtheblatantmanipulationofreligiousjustification,rhetoricandsymbols,andexplicitlyrejectedreligiousnationalistsof»theirown«faith/nation.

UNSUITABILITY OF APRIORISM

Religions,theirtraditionalsymbolsandrhetoricremainimportantandextremelypersuasiveelementsofcontemporarynationalandpoliticalmythologiesandtheir

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iconography.Althoughlatentlypresentallthetime,theyareparticularlyexposedduringthecriticalperiodsinanation’shistory.Assuch,theymustnotbetreatedassomethingthatisneitheraprioritolerantnormilitant;neitherinadvancecon-ciliativenordestructive;neithernecessarilyorientedtowardfriendshipnortowardenmity;neitherapriorizealotnorwell-intentioned.Inshort,theyareneitherhate-fulnorpeacefulinadvance:theircurrentinterpretationsandpracticalactivitiesmakethembecomesuch.Thecrossandthecrescentareeasilytransformedintothesword,andthebrillianceoffaith,ascomprehendbybelievers,intotheglareoftheblade.Thestepfrommythomaniactheorytobloodthirstyterrorisasmallone;anycreedcanbetransformedintoaruthlessbeast.Thisshortintroductorypresentationillustrateshownationalized,politicizedandmilitarizedreligioussymbolism(andreligiouscommunities ingeneral)wasnotonlytheconsequenceoftherecentcatastrophiceventsintheBalkans,butalsooneofthesources;notonlytheconclusionbutalsooneoftheorigins.Thehiddenhypothesisofthisoutstandingattentiontothereligiousdimensionsandiconogra-phyofBalkanwarfare–promotedbylocalreligiousnationalistsandsomeforeignorlocalsimplisticormalevolentinterpreters-isthattheproblemsbetweenthesenationsareirrationalandcannotbesolvedinarationalway.Insuchanarrow-mindedormaliciousanddestructivediscourse,thedifferences-betweenSerbs,Croats,Bosniaksandothernations;Orthodox,Catholics,Muslims,Jews,otherbelieversandatheists-seemtoolargetobebridgedand,assuch,thepredominantsourceoftherecenthatredandwarfareandaninstantexplanationforit.Such inciting and irrationalizing discourse can be successfully rejected, firstly,bycarefullystudyingthewholecomplexityofthecausesofthetragedies,i.e.theparallelismbetweenthewell-planned,»rational«causes(i.e.Realpolitik)andthe»irrational«,mythicalandsymboliccauses; secondly,byaprofoundanalysisofthisparticularaspect,namely,thestatements,behaviourandactionsofreligiousinstitutions,theclergyand,indeed,thebelieversthemselves;andthirdly,byrecol-lectingtherichmultinational,multireligiousandmulticulturaltraditionoftheBal-kans.Onlyafterdoingthiscanalltheinvolvedpartiesandinstitutions–includingreligious–indeedreflectontheirattitudesandactivitiesduringthisperiod.

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HrvatskojiBosniiHercegovini1990.-1990.Godine;Durieux,Zagreb

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DEMOCRATIZATION – WEAPON AGAINST TERRORISM

Forthemajorityofpoliticalanalystsandexpertsthequestionisnolongerwheth-ertherewillbeawarinIraqornot,butwhen,howand…what(is)willbeitspurpose?RegardlessofthefactthattheIraqiregimehasagreedtothereturnofinspectorswhowerebarredfromIraqin1998priortotheoperationtheDesertFox.Onceagain,thequestionofoverthrowingSaddamHusseinhasbecomethemajorissue:becauseoftheproductionofweaponsofmassdestructionorbecauseoftheIraqioilstocks.Thelatteramountto220billionbarrels,andthecountryalsohas30trillionm3ofgasstocks.IsthereasonhidinginthefertileMesopotamiawheretwomillionPalestinianrefugeescouldbesettled,orinthenewpoliticalmapoftheMiddleEastwheretheUSAwouldreplacethenon-democraticregimeswiththedemocraticones?IraqisthebeginningofoneoftheseriesofdemocratisationprocessesoftheMiddleEastwhichaccordingtoDr.BernardLewis,professoratthePrincetonUniversity,metaphoricallypresentsagameofdominoes.Baghdadisthediceandwhenitiscasttheotherdominoeswillstarttofallsuccessively.USPresidentGeorgeBushhasannouncedthecourseofeventsinrelationtoIraqattheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblySession:1)inhisspeechtotheGeneralAssemblyoftheUnitedNationsOrganization,PresidentBushwasclearthattheAmericangoalisnotonlythereturnofinspectorsbutalsoadditionalconditionsinherentinformerresolutionsoftheSecurityCouncil(No1284of17December1999,No1051of17December1999,No715of11October1991,No707of15November1991)bindingIraqtodestroytheweaponsofmassdestructions;2)theIraqiregimehastoresolvetheconflictwithKuwait,i.e.thequestionsofmissingpersonsandwarindemnity(ResolutionNo686of3March1991andNo687of3April1991);3)resolutionsNo688of5April1991andNo949of15September1994bindIraqtostoppersecutionsofcivilianpopulationandminorities.Inhis speech to theGeneralAssembly,Bushadvocated thedissolutionof theIraqirepressiveapparatusandpublicprosecutionoftheIraqileaders.However,SaddamHusseindefinitelycannotfulfiltheseconditions,sinceitwouldmeantheendofhisauthority.Inthatcase,BushhascheckmatedSaddamHussein.Undoubtedly,thereisaplanforoverthrowingSaddamHussein,butthereisalsoa chance that no real scenario has been prepared. According to STRATFOR,Americanintelligenceanalysesagency,theAmericanAdministrationhasseveralvariantsofthescenarioandisreadytoinitiateatanymomentoneorevenmorescenariossimultaneously:1)Thedesertturbulence:afierceairassaultwithradar-guidedinvisiblebomberstocommandposts;2)Thedesertchopping:astrongandcontinuousoffensivewhichwouldchopoffsomeareasandregionsfromBaghdadandtransfertheirgovernancetotheopposition;3)ThedesertstormII:astrong

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offensive fromairwhichwouldcauseamilitary andeconomiccollapseof thecountry;4)Thedesertthunder:bombingofBaghdadandofthepositionsoftheRepublicanGuardwithvariousweaponsandinvariousways.Theexpertsandco-workersoftheIFIMESinstitutebelievetheIraqiforces(ex-ceptIsrael)stilltobethestrongestintheMiddleEast,althoughatleast40%ofitscapacitieswerelostduringtheDesertStormoperation.Intheregularcomposi-tion,Iraqiforcescount430thousandsoldiersandtheincredible6.6millionre-servists(“theJerusalemArmy”).Iraqhas2,200tanks(ofwhich700aretypeT-72tanks),3,700armouredpersonnelcarriers,2,400artilleryweapons–theyhavepreservedsome20-50SCUDrocketmissiles,316aircraft(airforceiscomposedof30thousandmen),whilethenavycounts2,000menandisarmedwithland-to-seamissilesandseamines.The two strongest components of the Iraqi forces are the Republican Guard(60,000 men), which occupied Kuwait in a lightning three-hour military op-eration,andtheSpecialRepublicanGuard(15,000men)underthecommandofSaddam’ssonQusey.TheRepublicanGuardprovidesthedefenceofBaghdadandofthecitiesofKirkukandBasra.

AMERICAN EXPORT OF DEMOCRACY

ThereisnodoubtthattheAmericansalreadyhaveasilentagreementandconsentofRussiaandChinafortheoverthrowofSaddamHussein.FranceischangingitsviewpointandtheEuropeanUnion,accordingtoPrimeMinisterRasmussenfromEUpresidingDenmark,believesthattheAmericansneednospecialresolutionsincetheyarealreadybackedbypreviousresolutions.The Arab regimes have the form of monarchies or presidential monarchies(SaddamappointedhissonQuseysuccessortothethrone,HafesalAsadawassucceededbyhissonBashaar,eventuallyHosniMubarakalsoappointedhissonJamalsuccessor…).TheArabregimeswill,insteadofsheddingtearsforSaddamHussein,feartheirownfateinspiteofthedeclaredresistancetotheintervention.AsvividlydescribedbysheikHamadbenJasimAl-Thani,foreignministerofQa-tar:“TheAmericansandtheUnitedAmericanHQhavebeenattheAlidedhbaseforthreeyears.WehaveinformedtheGulfstatesthereof,eventhoughtheysaynowtheywerenotinformed…”“TheArabstateswillnothinderactionagainstIraq”saidLieutenant-GeneralofIsraelidefenceforcestotheaudienceattheauditoriumofInstituteforPoliticalStudiesinHertzli.

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THE RESPONSE OF THREE HUNDRED MILLION ARABS AND ONE BILLION MUSLIMS

BushAdministrationhasrecognized that theendof totalitarianregimes in theMiddleEastisapproaching.During50yearsofcoldwartheAmericansdefeatedthecommunistregimesinEastEuropeandCentralAsia.IraqisthefirstphaseofanewlonglastingprocessintheMiddleEast.Inanycase, theArabmassesare scepticalaboutAmericanplans.The regime-controlledmediainthosestatespresenttheUSAastheaggressoragainsttheirtraditionalvaluesandthewaragainstterrorismasthewaragainstIslam.TheArabmedia have not mentioned Bush’s speech immediately after the attack on theWTCwhichhedeliveredattheIslamcentreinNewYorknorthespeechgivenbytheveryprominentDeputySecretaryofDefencePaulWolfovitz,bothsayingthattheUSAarenotatwarwiththeliberalIslam.Americahasnotsucceededinbring-ingitsviewpointclosertotheMuslimmassesdespitetheappointmentofUnderSecretaryforPublicDiplomacyandPublicAffairs(CharlotteBeers),norhasitmanagedtopresentthegoalsofAmericanpoliticssuchaspeaceintheMiddleEast,toleranceandpromotionofdemocracyintheArabsociety.Nevertheless,majorityofIraqiswillawaitAmericanliberatorsinthestreets,ex-pectingthemtobringthedemocracyandhumanrightstheyhavewaitedsolongfor,asVicePresidentCheneyclearlyputitinhisspeechdeliveredon29August2002.PerhapsCheneyfoundedhisstatementontheopiniongivenbyDrFuadAjmy,professorofpoliticalstudiesattheJohnHopkinsUniversity,whorecom-mendstheUSAnottopaytoomuchattentiontothereactionsofArabmasses.

EQUATION: DEMOCRACY AND WAR AGAINST TERRORISM

Democracy and war against terrorism are two strongly interrelated ideas. Allradical Islamorganisationshaveemerged innon-democraticArabstateswhichsuffergreatpoliticalandsocialpressures.IslamJihad,JamaaIslami-GIAinEgyptandotherorganisationsaretheresultsofsocialandpoliticalrepressionexertedbyNaser,SadatandtheirbloodyrevengeonMuslimbrothers,communistsandtrade unions. Hamas is the product of irrational policy of corrupt PalestinianauthorityledbyArafatandofLikud-ledrepressionundertheleadershipofPrimeMinisterSharon.InIraq,SCIRIisthereactionofthemajorityShiitepopulation,inAlgeria,GEAhasresultedfromthesocialistreignofHawariBomidien,OsamabinLadenandal-QuaedaareproductsofofficialpolicyofcertainMuslimcoun-tries.Al-QuaedawasatoolusedduringthecoldwarinAfghanistan,Kashmiretc.whereIslamwasthedisguiseforachievinggoalsintheglobalcontext.AccordingtotheopinionofGrahamFoller,knownAmericananalyst,theendof

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SaddamHussein’sregimewillpositivelyaffecttheatmosphereintheregion.TheIraqiregimeistheworstofthebadArabregimes.Eventually,thenationsinthere-gionwillbeconvincedofthesincereintentionsofAmericanAdministration.The IFIMES InstituteproposesconstantpresenceofAmericans in Iraqand set-tingupofmilitarybasesinIraq.PresentdeploymentofforcesisnamelyirrationalandAmericanAdministrationwillhavetotakeadvantageofthepositiveeffectsofinterventiontosupportthereformmovementsintheregionandinthiswayclearlyexpressathreattothosemostresistantwhocanawaitasimilarfateasSaddamHus-sein.TheUSAhaverichexperienceininterventionsandestablishmentofdemoc-racy:Haiti,Bosnia,Kosovo,Afghanistanetc.RadicalIslamorganisationshavetakenadvantageofthesufferingofIslammassesinordertoimposeits(destructive)ideologiesofsolution.Eventsfollowing11Sep-temberhavebeyonddoubtcausedaheavyblowforthosemovementsandweakenedtheirpoliticalandmanoeuvringposition.Intheideologicalsensetheyhavelostcred-ibilityamongthefollowersandareconsequentlyfacingthestageofinternalconflictsandfractioning.Theirfateandconsolidationdependonwhatdemocraticalternativecantheyofferintheircountries.However,therearealmostnosuchalternativesortheyareweakduetolackofdemocratictradition,economic-socialcrisesandoverallstatecorruption.RadicalorganisationssuchasAl-QuaedadidnotmanagetorecruitMuslimmassesagainst the intervention in Afghanistan in spite of fierce and mortal AmericanbombingandconsequentcivilvictimsorevenrevengefulmarchoftheNorthAlli-ance(MazariSharif)againstTalibans.Today,radicalorganisationsactuallyliveonlythankstothedifferencesininterpretationsoftheideaofterrorismbetweenIslamandtheWest.The“ConspiracyTheory”prevailsinallanalysesofterroristorganisationsinrela-tionwithAmericanpoliticstowardstheArabsandMuslims.Fundamentalistorgani-sationsaredividedonthebasisofideologyandgoals.Somecallformilitaryresist-anceandterrorismwhileothers,onthecontrary,condemnthosemethods.Certainmovementshaveanationalconnotation,suchastheShiiteHezbollahinLebanonorHamasinPalestine.Theseorganisationsseethemselvesasnationalliberationmove-mentsincontrasttoVehabultraradicalmovementswhichhaveexpandedsince11Septembereveninsomecountrieswithnohistoryofsuchmovement(LebanonandMorocco).FundamentalistorganisationsintheGulfhaveexpandedandstrength-enedinthepasttwodecadesasaresultofpowerfulmissionaryactivitiesinEgypt,Algeria,PakistanandeventuallyinBosnia,andmainlyduetovastfundsallocatedintheframeworkofhumanitarianorganisation.Duringthe1980s,theywerealsosup-portedbytheWestinneutralisingtheSovietinterestsinAfghanistanandPakistan.ExamplesareShiiticexportofIslamrevolutiontoEgyptandtheGulfstatesandsup-portofIslamgroupsinBosniaasacounterweighttoSerbiannationalism.Present

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organisationsarefacingamajorcrisisastheyoperateingroupsthataretoosmalltosustaintheopposinginfluenceoftheirgovernments.TheUSAhaverecognisedthattherewouldbeno11Septemberwithoutthesilentsupportofsuch(terrorist)organisationsbycertainregimes.Iraqisbeyonddoubtoneofthem.ThebasisofsuchideologiesishatredtowardstheWestexpressedinthemedia,educationalprograms,activitiesofhumanitarianorganisationsetc.Afterall,thiswasatleastsymbolicallyconfirmedbyagroupactionbroughtagainstthreeSaudiprincesbytherelativesofvictimsof11September.AmericanSenatorJohnMcCainhasclearlyaccusedSaudiArabiaofsupportingterrorismsince15attackersofWTCwereSaudicitizens.SomestatestookthemessagefromWashingtonveryseriously.SaudiArabiawasoneofthemandatthemeetingbetweenBushandSaudiPrinceBandaritwasagreedthatSaudiArabiawouldfinancehalfofthecostsofin-terventioninIraq.However,nobodyhasdeniednorconfirmedtheagreementuntilnow.CrownPrinceAbdullahhascalledthereligiousleadersatameetingtoopen-nesstotheworld,toleranceandspreadingofrealvaluesofIslaminsteadofhatred.LibyahasagreedtopaytheindemnityforrelativesofthevictimsofaircrafttragedyinLockerbie,Iranhashandedover16membersofAl-QuaedatoSaudiArabiawhichlaterdeliveredthemtotheAmericans.DrBernardLewis fromPrincetonUniversitybelieves thathatredofMuslims to-wardstheWestispartlyhiddeninsupportwhichtheUSAprovidedtoinhumaneandrepressiveMuslimregimes.HetoldthattoPresidentBustataprivatedinner.However,LewisalsobelievesthattheUSAwillwinfavourandtrustoftheArabpeoplewhohavebeenwaitingmuchtoolongfordemocracy.ThissupportisamuchbetterweaponthanallavailablenuclearandconventionalarmamentAmericapos-sessedwhichprovedtobeofnouseon11Septemberlastyear.Theexpertsandco-workersoftheIFIMESinstitutesharetheopinionthattheUSAaremakingprogressintheireffortstoachievereformsanddemocratisationintheMiddleEast.TheUSAshouldestablishdirectcommunicationwithMuslimnationsinsteadofthroughcorruptandhatefulregimesandregime-controlledmedia.ThosenationswilleventuallybecomepartnersandalliesoftheUSAandtheWest.AmericashouldconsideravariantoftheMarshallPlanfortheMiddleEast.Notonlyintheeconomicscopebutalso,andaboveall,inpoliticalandsocialsense.Asregardsthesecurity,itwouldberecommendabletoconsidertheestablishmentofmilitaryallianceasafactorofstabilityintheregion,suchastheNATOPartnershipforPeaceinEurope.TheEuropeanUnionhastobemoreactivelyinvolvedintheresolvingofaccumulat-edproblemsintheMiddleEast.ThelattershouldnotbecomethestumblingblockandreasonforcompetitionbetweenEUandtheUSA.TheEuropeanUnion,havingtheneighbouringpositionwiththeMiddleEast(whichtheUSAdonothave)shouldplayanactiveroleintheeconomicandpoliticalreconstructionoftheMiddleEast.

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The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana has specially for the September issue of “Obramba” (“Defence Monthly”), a Slovenian professional journal dealing with defence-military issues, prepared an analysis of events going on in Sudan. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below.

SUDAN: TERRORISM YESTERDAY, OIL TODAY

Duringthe1990s,Sudanwasofcentralinteresttotheworldpublic,sincethispoorcountry,thoughrichinunexploitedresources,gavesheltertoOsamabinLadenafter he lost his Saudi citizenship. In Sudan, the idea of al-Quaeda developedandreacheditsfinalstage–realisationandestablishmentoftheinfrastructurenetwork.TheSaudimillionaire tookgoodadvantageof thewelcomeexpressedby the thenIslamicSheriatgovernment ledbyAlturabi.He investedmoney intheconstructionofreligiousschoolsandsomefactories,especiallypharmaceuti-calplantsinKhartoum,thusgainingtheultimatefavourofthegovernmentandespeciallyoftheSudanesepeople.OsamabinLadenwasexiled fromSudanunder thepressuresof theUSAanddifferenttargetsinSudanwerebombedincludingapharmaceuticalplantandter-roristtrainingcentresinKhartoum(1998).In1997,theUNOSecurityCouncilsanctionswereintroduced.AmericastartedtoopenlysupporttheSudanPeople’sLiberationArmy(SPLA),whichhasbeenfightingtheSudanesegovernmentbacksince1983.Today,SudanisofcentralinterestduetotheMachakospeaceagreement(Kenya,20July2002)betweentheSPLAandtheSudanesegovernment,whichisperhapsone of the results of the antiterrorist fight after 11 September. The Sudanesegovernmenthasnamelyfinallyshownunderstandingaboutthesouthregardingitsautonomyandchangedrelationswiththecentralgovernment inKhartoum.ThepeaceagreementatthesametimerepresentsaserioussteptowardstheendofbloodyviolencebetweentheMuslimsandtheChristians.However,itcontainsonlycertaincomplexissuessuchasthestateandreligionwhiletheissuesofoilrevenueandoftheborderlinebetweenthenorthandthesouthremainopenandperhapsahardnuttocrack.TheSouthdoesnotrecognisetheadministrativebor-derdrawnbytheBritishandstrivestogaincertainterritoriesintheeastandwestof thecountry.Basically, theagreementenvisagesasix-year transitionalperiodfollowedbyareferendumonself-determinationofthesouth.Thecentralgovern-menthascommitteditselftoincreaseinvestmentsinthispartofthecountryinordertoencouragethepeopleofthesouthtovoteforunityofthestateaftertheinterimperiodofsixyearsexpires.Allsidesareinfavouroftheultimatepeace.AtthemeetingofChristianchurches

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(organisedbytheWorldChurchCouncil)inKenyanKosom,theSPLAagreedunder thepressureofWCC to continue talks inMachakos (inNovember thisyear).GeneralJohnGarangsaidthatthesouthwouldvoteforunityiftherela-tionsinthispartofthecountrychangedsignificantly.InrelationtotheissueofSudanweshouldnotforgetthatwehaveseenyetnoendtomutualaccusationsbetweenIsraelandSudan.SudanisaccusingIsraelofprovidingweaponstoandtrainingtheSPLAmembers.AsIsrael’sally,EritreiaisactivelyinvolvedinthisactivityprovidinglogisticsupporttotheSPLA.Ontheotherhand, Israel isaccusingSudanof trainingPalestinianengineers fromtheHamas terrorist group for thepreparationof explosives.The IFIMES Institutebelievesthetruthaboutthesemutualaccusationsistobefoundonbothsides.

AMERICAN INTEREST IN SUDAN

DuetooilstocksinSudan,especiallyinthesouth,ChineseandEuropeancom-panies have been offensively penetrating this country. The USA have becomeinterestedinthesemovements.PresidentBushhasnamedspecialUSenvoyforSudan,JohnDanforth,formerinfluentialRepublicansenatorfromMissoury.TheUSAhaveshownstronginterestinbeingpresentintheregionaswellasstabilis-ingthesituationandrestoringbilateralrelationswiththecountrywhich,notlongago,supportedterrorismbuthasnowbecomememberoftheworldantiterroristcoalition.Sudanhasrichintactoilstocks.Beyonddoubt,oilwasneveronlyaneconomicand commercial category but always related to the context of politics and itsgeopoliticalgoalsandinterests.Since1974,theAmericanoilcompanyChevronheldtheconcessionforoilforasmanyas40sitesinSudan.Dailyproductionwas120,000barrelsoil.In1984,Chevronceaseditsoperationsduetopolitical(theUSAgovernmentpressures)andsecurity(SPLAattacks)reasons.In1991, thenewgovernmentof Islamsolutionacted in twodirections: firstly,exploitationofAbuJaribaoilfieldswhereChevronhaditsconcessions,andsec-ondly,establishingcontactswithcompanieswhicharenotundertheinfluenceoftheUSA.TheseactionsweresupportedbyaprivateSudanesecompanyConcorp.ThefirstcontractwasconcludedwiththeCanadianStatePetrolium.Later,acon-sortiumforoilexploitationwasestablishedwiththefollowingstakes:40%China(NationalOilCorporation),30%Malaysia(Petronas),25%Canada(Talisman)and5%Sudanesegovernment.TheoilconsortiumbuilttheportinBaasher,fromwhere160,000barrelsoilareexporteddailywhiletherestisleftfordomesticuse.ThearrivalofAsiantigers,suchasChinaandMalaysia,andannouncedappear-anceofEuropeancompanies(Russian,AustrianandSwedish)have,ofcourse,provokedtheAmericans.Thosecompaniesnamelynotonlydevelopoilindustry

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butalsoconstruct roads,bridges,electrification,andplanandbuildcommuni-cations,watersupplysystemsetc.Themost interesting isChinesepenetration,whichisactuallyanoffensive.Obviously,ChinaisnotinterestedonlyinoilbutalsoinbeingconstantlypresentintheareafromwhereitcaneasilycontroltheRedSeaasthearterythroughwhichallsearoutesforoilleadtoEurope.Chinathereforehaspoliticalandmilitaryinterestsinthisstrategicarea.ThenationalChineseoilcorporationplanstotripletheproductionbytheyear2005toreach15milliontons.Namely,Chinahasnoownlargeoilresourcesandisthereforelookingforsolutiontothisproblemabroad.TheUSAshouldtherefore,throughspecialenvoy,formersenatorDanforht,actquicklyandeffectivelyandtreatequallyboth,theformerlyrebelSPLAandtheSu-danesegovernment.AmericansanctionsagainstthetwelveSudanesecompanies(of22October2002)andaidtotheSouthintheamountof100milliondollarsannuallyforthenextfiveyearsareprobablytherightdirectiontofollowbeforetheNovemberpeacenegotiationsbetweentheSudanesegovernmentandtheSPLAinKenyatakeplace.TheIFIMESInstitutebelievesthatAmericanAdministrationshouldnotattributegreatimportancetotheAfricanlobbyinitsCongress.SpecialenvoyforSudan,formersenatorDanforthshouldcontinuehispeacemissionnotonlyinthepoliti-calbutalsoeconomicsense.ThisistheonlywayfortheAmericanstobalancetheChinesepenetrationwhichcouldhaveanegativeinfluenceontheSudanesepeo-pleandconsequentlyonthepeaceintheregion.TheAmericanauthoritywilldefi-nitelypositivelyeffectthefuturepeacenegotiations,whichshouldgobeyondtheinfluenceofreligiouscommunities(muftisandtheCatholicchurchofSudan).SUDANTheRepublicofSudancovers2,505,810km2;Inhabitants:37.090.298;Religiousstructureofinhabitants:70%Muslims(Sunnites),25%animists,5%Christians;BDP:USD1,360Labourforce:11million,ofwhich43%inagriculture,17%inindustry,40%inserviceindustry.

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The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na constantly analyses events in the Middle East and brings them to the attention of international public. One such contribution is this analysis of the conflict and present events between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

WHERE ARE THE ISRAELIS AND THE PALESTINIANS???THE OSLO PEACE AGREEMENT IS DEAD

TwoyearsafterIntifada,sevenyearsafterYitzhakRabin’sassassination–wherearetheIsraelisandthePalestinians?OneoftheresultsofthemilitarydefeatofIraqin1991wastheinitiationofpeacenegotiations inOslo and the signingof theOsloPeaceAgreementbyYitzhakRabin,ShimonPeresandYaserArafat.MillionsofPalestinianscouldthenstarttorealisetheirdreamsoftheindependentPalestinianstate,andontheotherhand,theIsraelipeoplecouldrealisetheirdreamsoflivingtogetherinpeacewiththeirArabneighbours.PLOabandonedtheprevailingideologyoftheremovalofIsraelandthrowingtheIsraelisintothesea.ThePalestiniansgainedautonomouspower,theLegislativeCouncil,thegovern-ment,thenegotiationgroupforresolvingthedisputedissuesoftherefugees,Jeru-salemandthebordersofthefuturePalestinianstate.ThePalestinianleadermadetheworstmistake inDecember2000whenhe refused theCampDavidPeacePlanaccordingtowhichthePalestinianswouldgainsovereigntyovertheArabpartofJerusalemwhileIsraelwouldkeeptheWestJerusalemandtheArmenianQuarter.Asregardstheborder,theAmericanplansuggestedthatIsraelgaincertainsettle-mentsontheWestBankandtheGazaStripasthecompensationifthePalestin-iansgaincertainareasintheNagavdesert.Obviously,thereisnosolutionwhichwouldprovideananswertothereturnofPalestinianrefugees.Meanwhile,however,corruptionhasgainedgroundintheautonomouspowerandthe lifeofPalestinianswasnot improveddespite enormoushelp arriving fromtheEU,USAandtheIslamcountries.ThiswastheperfectatmosphereforthedevelopmentofmilitantIslamicorganisationsandgroups(Hamas,Jihad).Suchorganisationswantedtoassertthemselvesaspartnersandnegotiatorsinthepeaceprocess,butinthiswaytheyonlyfurtherexhaustedthealreadyweakPalestinianpower.Whatdid thePalestiniansget?Theygot fanaticswilling todie since theyhavenohopesof thebetter future.ThePalestinianterritoryhasbecomethesecondSomalilandwitheachpartoftheareahavingitsownmilitia.Thousandsofkilled,injured,cityblockades,exiled,disabled,unemployed,leadershipisolatedfromthepeopleetc.DreamsofthePalestinianownstatehaveinrealityreducedtodreams

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ofendingthestand-offoftheChurchoftheNativityandthecomplexinRamal-lah.Duringthistime,Israelgainedalotinforeignpolicy.TheUnitedNationswith-drewtheirpreviousresolutions,duringtwoyearsofIntifadathey increasedthenumberofsettlementsandthenumberofJewishinhabitantsontheWestBank.On the internalpolitical field,moderate Israeligroups lost their influenceanddistinctivenesswhileLIKUDgainedmorepoliticaltrustandcontinuedwiththeevenmoredeterminedpoliticsandresponsetoterrorism.TheirpoliticalstrategyisbasedonthepersecutionofArafatandtransferofPalestiniansfromtheWesttotheEastBank.TenyearsaftertheOsloPeaceAgreementPalestiniansgainedmorethaninthepast 30 years of war. However, the Palestinians were deluded by their leadersandAraballiesintothinkingthatterrorismandsuicidalattackscouldhelpthemachievethedesiredgoals.Theyforgotordisregardedthefactthatduringthelast50yearsIsraelhasbecomeamodernstatewithstrongdemocraticinstitutions.We can compare the acts of Palestinians with IRA and ETA terrorist attackswhichdidnotsucceedinoverthrowingtheBritishnortheSpanishgovernmentwiththeirbombsandassassinations.The Oslo Peace Agreement is dead, or better, makes no sense any more. ThenewroundofnegotiationswiththefutureLIKUDgovernment(totakeplaceon28January2003)willhavetoincludeotherorganisations,suchasthemoderatePalestinianpoliticalorganisations.TheelectionofAmranMitznatothe leaderofLabouritesinIsraelwillnotalterthesituation.Mitzna’spromiseregardingthetransferofPalestiniansfromtheWestBankisnotrealisticsincesuchintentionshavebeenexpressedforyearsbutnoprogresshasbeenmadeinthisdirection.ThereismorerealismintheopinionsharedbyLIKUDandthePrimeMinisterSharon(mostlikelythewinnersofthenextelections)ontheonehand,andtheIFIMESInstituteontheotherhand,thatisnecessarytofindthecommonpointsintheRoadMapPlanasthestartingpointforfurthernegotiations.ThereismorerealismnoticedalsoonthePalestinianside.MinisterforinformationofthePales-tinianautonomouspower,YaserAbdRaba(whoisahighofficialinPLO)statedattheconferenceoftheEuropeanGreenPartiesinBrusselsthatthePalestiniansarereadytoresolvethequestionofreturnofrefugeesonthebasisofClinton’splanwhichdoesnotenvisagethereturntoIsraelbutthesettlementinGaza,theWestBankandothercountries,wheretheyarelocatedatthemomentandcanstaythereascitizenswithequalrights.ThenegotiationsshouldbeinitiatedonthebasisoftheMichelo’srecommenda-tionandtheRoadMapplan.TheIFIMESanalystsbelieve that thepeaceagreementcangainadditional im-petusifall thesidesarereadytosupport it.PursuanttoArticles4,6and7of

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theNationalSecurityStrategywhichPresidentBushsubmittedtotheCongress,theUSAhaveto lookforthesolutionsregardingtheMiddleEast.Article4ofthatStrategyenvisagesco-operationwithothersinpreventingconflicts,Article6providesforsupportofthefreemarketandArticle7establishesthebroadeningofthecircleofeconomicdevelopmentthroughthedevelopmentofdemocraticinfrastructure.TheUSAhavestartedwith theactivities fromArticle7, i.e.de-mocratisationoftheMiddleEast,thefirstpieceinthemosaicbeingIraqwhichshould,followingtheregimeofSaddamHussein,turnintoanexampleofdemoc-racyforothersandtakeanactivepartinthepeaceprocessbyassumingcertainobligationsrelatedtothatprocess.InternationalInstituteIFIMESbelievesthatthedefeatofSaddamHusseinintheDesertStormactuallymeantthedefeatofArafatandthereforeforcedthePales-tinianstocometoOsloin1992.MostArabstatesaredictatorialandthemaindeficiencyoftheregionislackofdemocracyandofinstrumentsforitsimplemen-tationaswellasfortheimplementationofrespectofhumanrights.IFIMESisstressingthattheWestwillhavetostartdirectcommunicationwiththeMuslimandtheArabnationsandgiveupthepracticeofcommunicatingthroughstatemediaandcorruptregimeswhichhavebeencreatingtheatmosphereofhatredinsteadofdialogueandunderstanding.Forexample,theyrefertoIsraelasthe»oc-cupiedterritory«orthe»Zionisticformation«andtotheJewsasZionistsetc.TheMiddleEast shouldbe regionalisedbycreatinga formation similar to theEuropeofregions.Iraqcouldbedividedintofourcantons(Shiitic,Sunnite,Kurd-ishandTurkmen)ortwoentities(KurdishandArab),EgyptcouldhaveaCopticentity,SaudiArabiashouldbeunitedintofourfederalunits(Najid,Hijaz,Aseer,theEast province),while thedivisionof Sudan should beprevented by givingtheSPLAagreaterrole intheSudanesefederalgovernment.Thisseemstobeagoodrecipealsoforotherconflicts intheregion(Algeria,Somaliland,Syria,Lebanon)sinceitwouldprovidetheconditionsforresolvingtheethnicandreli-giousproblemsintheMiddleEastandopenthedoortoanewregulationofthecircumstancesintheregion.TheArabsshouldrealisethatthereturnofPalestinianrefugeestoIsrael isnotpossiblesinceitwouldendangertheexistenceofIsraelastheJewishstate.Ac-cordingtothewell-knownanalyst,YehudLitani,thedreamofthedivisionofPal-estineisunfeasible,norisitpossibletoputupprotectivewallsbetweentheWestBankandGaza.Aftersixtyyearsofhardshipinrefugeecamps,thePalestinianpeopleexpectthesolutionoftheirstatuseitheroncertainareasoftheWestBankorbysettlinginotherArabstates.Until1991,inIraqandotherGulfstatestherewereoverhalfamillionPalestinianswhowereexiledduetothealliancebetweenSaddamHusseinandArafataftertheinvasionofKuwait.TheprioritiesforthePalestinianpeoplearetheregulationofcivilstatus,housing,educationandother

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basicconditionsneededforadignifiedhumanlife.ForaPalestinian,theseneedshavepriorityoverallotherissues.TheIsraelisandthePalestiniansshouldtalkopenlywiththenewleadersofIraq,SaudiArabia,SyriaandJordanonthelegalisationofstatusandgrantingofrightstoPalestinianrefugeesonequaltermswithothercitizens.InternationalInstituteIFIMESbelievesthattheroleofcertaininstitutionsshouldbetransformedorevenreplacedandnewinstitutionsestablishedinordertolookfor(andfind)solutionsforthewholeregion.AsaguidelinewerecommendtheestablishmentoftheMiddleEastPartnershipforPeacewhichwouldreplaceallthesofarexistingineffectiveinstitutions:theArabLeague,theGulfStatesCo-op-erationCouncil(GCC)andtheOrganisationoftheIslamicConference(OIC).

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na constantly analyses events in the Middle East region. By promoting the idea of “Partnership for the Middle East” we try to contribute to the stabilisation in the region. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below.

PARTNERSHIP FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

Initspreviousanalyses,theIFIMESInternationalInstitutecalledupontheUSAtostartapplyingadifferentpolicytowardstheMiddleEast,fornotonlytheUSAanditsinterestsbutalsothewholedemocraticsystemintheworldhasbeenen-dangeredsince11September2001.Asamethodofadifferentpolicywehavepro-posedtheUSAtoestablishanorganisationmodelledontheNATOPartnershipforPeacewhichwouldbecalled“PartnershipfortheMiddleEast”.On12December2002,thedemocraticworldreceivedpositivelytheinitiativeoftheAmericanstatesecretary,ColinPowell,intheWashingtonHeritageCentre,where he announced the establishment of “Partnership Initiative between theUSAand theMiddleEast”.However, theEuropeanalliesand thepoliticalno-menklaturaintheMiddleEastrespondedwithscepticismtothisinitiativewhiletheArabmediaansweredbyaccusingtheUSAofinterferingintheinternalaffairsofthosecountries.Incontrast tothe initiativesof theformercentury, thisoneaimsat integratingwholenationsinthereformsofpoliticalsystems,helpingineducation,fightingagainstilliteracy,implementingwomen’srights,establishingcivilsocietyorganisa-tionsandsupportingthepublicandprivatesectorintheregioninordertoreformtheeconomy.ThemaininitiatorsoftheideaoftheUSAandtheMiddleEastpartnershipareDickChanney,DonaldRumsfeld,PaulWolfowitz,WilliamKristol,GarySchmitt,RobertKaganandBruceJackson,allcomingfromthelineofAmericanNeocon-servativeswhoformulatedtheirattitudeatthebeginningof1970s,basedontwoideas: rejecting the isolationismof theDemocrats and rejecting the realismoftheRepublicans.OnthosetwobasestheyregardtheUSAasthesuperior-forcewhichisspreadingtheideasofdemocracyandprotectionofhumanrightsintheworld.Theypublishedtheirviewsintheproject“NewAmericanCentury”(1997)andvariousmagazinessuchasTheWeeklyStandard,wheretheyexpressedtheirdemandsforamoreintensiveroleofAmericaintheMiddleEast,theabolitionofundemocraticregimesandthedrawingofanewpoliticalmap.TheIFIMESInstituteisoftheopinionthattheideaoftheNewAmericanCen-turyshouldbeintegratedinPowell’splanandofferedtothepeopleintheMiddleEastthroughindependentmediaandinstitutionstohelpintheformationofthecivilsocietybodies.Inthebeginningitwouldhavetheformofjointventureswith

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similar institutions inEurope,especially in theBalkans,where thepeoplecan,after50yearsofcommunismandadecadeofwar,freelyvotetheirrepresenta-tivesinfreeanddemocraticelectionsandcreateaprogressinthepoliticalandeconomicreforms.TheBalkannations,amongwhichtherearealsotenmillionMuslims,arepositivetowardsAmericaninterventionsintheregionandparticipa-tioninthepeaceprocess.However,theBalkanrealityisnotaccessibletothemil-lionsofpeopleoftheMiddleEastbecausethemedia,obviouslyintentionally,stillcreatetheimagewhichpreventsthepresentationofpositiveeffectsoftheWestandofAmericaninterventionintheBalkans.IFIMESbelievesthat,initially,contactsshouldbeestablishedintheMiddleEastwiththefinancialandreligiousleadersofsuchorganisations,professorsandstu-dentsinordertoexplaintheplanofchangesandstressthatthechangeswouldnotendangertheirstatusandinterests–financial,religious,tribal–norinterfereintheirtradition.Theycouldthusbecomethegeneratorsofnewchanges,sincetheyknowtheWestwellduetomanyyearsofvariousformsofco-operationthroughinvestments,educationetc.AccordingtoIFIMES,thosepeoplearethehostagesintheirstatesofthecoldwarideologies(Baath’ssocialismandNaser’sPan-Ara-bism,radicalWahhabism,Shiiticexportofrevolution).AllthesegroupingsshouldbeinvitedtoparticipateinseminarsandsymposiumsofindependentinstitutionsofthecivilsocietyinEurope(independentinstitutesandNGOs)inordertoshowandpresentthemtheachievementsofdemocraticstandards(elections,freeme-dia,humanrights,socialandhealthsecurity).Moreover,therelevantstructuresfromIsraelshouldbeinvitedtotakepartinthiskindofco-operationwheretheycouldgettoknoweachother,exchangeexperienceandbuildthebridges.Inthisway,wecouldpromoteideaswhichwouldunitethosenationsinsteadofdistanc-ingthemfromeachotherinordertocreateabetterlifeforalltheinhabitantsoftheregion.Therefore,Israelshouldalsobeincludedinthe“PartnershipfortheMiddleEast” initiativesince it isbynationalstructureamultiethnicstatewithdemocraticinstitutionswhere,forexample,theArabpartiestakepartintheelec-tionsandhavetheirrepresentativesintheIsraeliKnesset.

The“PartnershipfortheMiddleEast”initiativecomprisesthreemaingoals:1.reformofeducation,2.reformoftheeconomyand3.reformofthepoliticalsystems.

1. Religiousteachingshouldbeliberatedfromtheburdensofhistoricaleventswhichweremarkedbythecrusade(theChristianandIslamicwarandthewarsbetweenJewsandArabs,aswellasChristiansandJewsinEuropeinthe15thand20thcentury).Theseandsimilarideologiesendangerthestabilityinthe

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region.Reformsofeducationalsystemshould,accordingtoIFIMES,includetheerasingoftheconstitutionalchapterwhichstatesthatIslamisthestatereligion inmostcountriesof theMiddleEast.Religiousteachingshouldbeseparatedfromthecurriculum,especiallyinLebanon,Syria,Palestine,EgyptandIraq,since itpoursoilon the flames in thesemulti-religiouscountries.Religionshouldbetaughtinspecialisedschoolsandtheologicaluniversitiesanditshouldbebasedonscientificandhistoricalresearchwork.

2. Economic reformsare related topolitical reforms since tensofmillionsofpeople in theMiddleEastareunemployed. In thosecountries therearenoefficientstateinstitutionswhilesocialandhealthsecuritydoesnotevenexist.Thosepeoplehavenohope.Thepoliticians,professorsandjournalistsaccusetheWestofcausingthissituation.Thatiswhytheyarebecomingvolunteerrecruits in certain organisations (religious, humanitarian and other) whichpromotethefightagainsttheWestanditsinterestsastheirmainideology.

3. According to Richard Hass, Director of Policy Planning in the StateDepartment, the USA will not impose the outmoded freezing formula ofpolitical reform but rather work individually with each state in order togradually form their election systems.Hassadmitted that theUSAmadeamistakebynotgivingtheprioritytothedemocraticprocessesintheregion.DuringhisvisitsinEgypt,Pakistan,SaudiArabiaandotherstates,DirectorHasswasconvincedthroughcommunicationwithordinarypeoplethattheyfeeldisappointedwiththefailureoftheUSAinpromotingdemocracyintheregionandwithAmericansupportoftotalitarianregimes.

TheIFIMESInstitutebelieves that the21stcenturywillbemorefavourable tothenations in the regionsince the“Partnership for theMiddleEast” initiativewillhelpthepeopleoftheMiddleEasttogaintheirlongawaitedfreedomanddemocracyandtointegrateinthemodernworld.

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On the occasion of parliamentary elections in Israel which are to be held on 28 Janu-ary 2003, the International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana has prepared the pre-election analysis. The most interesting sections are given below:

LIKUD OR THE LABOURITES?

On28January2003,the16thIsraeliparliamentaryelectionsaretobeheldsincethestateofIsraelwasproclaimedin1948.TheparliamentaryelectionswilltakeplaceinthisdelicateandsensitivemomentsforIsraelandtheregion,inthelightofAmericanattackonIraqandoverthrowingtheregimeofSaddamHusseinwhogenerouslyfinancedPalestinianterroristac-tionsduringthesecondIntifadawhen,incontrasttothefirstIntifada,thebombsandsuicidalbelts replaced thestonesandpeacefulprotestsof thePalestinianswhoweredissatisfiedwiththeresultsoftheOslopeacenegotiations.As regards its internalpolitical affairs, Israel is facinga serious economicandpoliticalcrisis.Theeconomiccrisishasbeenfurtheraggravatedduetothecon-tinuationofIntifadaandthere-occupationandblockadeofmostoftheWestBankwhichusedtobeunder thecivilandsecurityadministrationof thePalestinianautonomouspower.Ontheotherhand,thepoliticalcrisishasbeencausedbythewithdrawaloftheLabouritesfromthegovernmentofnationalunity.AttheTuesdayelections,PrimeMinisterArielSharonwillaccordingtotheesti-mationsensureitsLikudparty32to38parliamentaryseats,whichwouldprovidetheright-wingparties includingLikudwith6oto65parliamentaryseats inthenewlyelectedKnesset.TheelectioncampaigninIsrael,startingwiththeinternalelectionsintheLabour-itespartyinOctoberlastyearandinLikudinNovemberlastyear,wasdirtyandwithmanylowblows.Bothsidestriedtowashinpublicasmuchofeachother’sdirtylinenaspossible.TheloudestweretheLabouritesledbythenewleaderAmranMitzna,accusingLikudforthefallofthegovernment,thatistosay,fortheirwithdrawalfromthegovernment,whichwastriggeredbytheirdisagreementwiththeproposedBudgetActfor2003andbysubsequentfullboycottofthevotingbytheLabouritesrepre-sentativesduringthesecondandthirdreadingofthebill.TheLabouritesweretryingveryhardtomakethevotersforgettheirresponsibil-ityforthefallofgovernmentinthesensitivemomentsforthestate(Intifadaandsuicidalactions,theslumpintourismandinvestments,theRoadMappeaceinitia-tivepresentedbytheUSA,Russia,EUandUN).Theypresentedthepublicwithcompletelydifferentreasonsforwithdrawingfromthegovernment,suchasoppos-ingthegovernmentpolicytowardsthePalestinians,inordertogainthevotesof

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Israelileft-wingersandIsraeliArabswhotraditionallyvotefortheLabourites.The voters are fully aware that the initiative for putting up the protective wallatthegreenlinebetweentheWestBankandIsraelhasbeengivenbythethenLabouritedefenceministerBenjaminBenEliazerandthattheunsuccessfuldip-lomaticattemptstoresolvethePalestinianissueweretakingplaceinthedepart-mentofforeignaffairsofthethenLabouriteministerShimonPeres.ItisalsoobvioustotheIsraelivotersthatthepoliticsoftheLabouritesduringthetermofofficeofEhudBarakandthewithdrawalfromsouthLebanonhaveledtothesecondPalestinianIntifada.TheIFIMESInstitutebelievesthatLikudwillwinthemajorityofvotesinthe120memberKnesset.However,thiswillnotsufficeforindependentformationofthegovernment.Itisnecessarytoformthegovernmentofabroadcoalitioncompris-ingtheLabouritesandultraleft-wingpartiessuchasShinoiandMeretzaswellastheultraright-wingpartiessuchasShas.Thefuturegovernmentwillhavetotakeupaclearpositionasregardstheunem-ployment problem, the economic crisis in the state, the inclusion of orthodoxreligiouspeopleinthesecurityandpoliticalissuesandasregardsthedefinitelymostsensitivePalestinianissue.Asregardsthenationalforeignaffairs,thenewIsraeligovernmentisexpectedtoactivelyparticipateintheAmericaninitiativeofPartnershipfortheMiddleEastandto try to find, in the frameworkof the initiative, themodelsandsolutionsfor the reform of the Palestinian administration, incorporating the PalestinianreformatoryforcesandtheArabneighboursinfindingtheanswerstothequestionofthestatusofPalestinianrefugeesintheneighbouringArabstates.

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Munther Al Fadhal, Ph.DInternational Counsellor-at-lawVisiting professor of Middle East laws / International College of law – London

Member of the Council of the International Institute IFIMES

STUDIES ON THE FUTURE OF IRAQDISABLING THE CONSTITUTION AND ABSENCE OF LAW IN THE PERIOD OF GOVERNING OF THE BAATH PARTY AND SADDAM HUSSEIN (1968 - AS YET)

TheconstitutionallivesinIraqhavebeenunstablethroughmorethanhalfcen-tury.Eightconstitutionshadbeenpresented,IraqiBasicLawwaspresentedonMarch21,1925,andwhichrevisedtwice,FirstlyinJulyof1925andsecondtimeinOctober1943.ConstitutionofJuly14,1958whichwasfollowedbyconstitutionofApril1963,thenconstitutionofApril22,1964,constitutionofApril29,1964,constitutionofSeptember1968andthetemporaryconstitutionof1970,whichwasrevisedmanytimesbutitsgovernancewasabsentconsiderably,neitherthegovernornortheregimehasrespectedit.After theceasefirebetweenIraqandIran in1988manyphantasmal talkstookplaceaboutthepermanentconstitution, thepoliticalpluralityandthedevelop-ingdemocracy.OnJuly30,1990,thelastconstitutionswaspresentedandwhichinclude 179 paragraphs, that explain the political form of the country and itspolitical,socialfoundationsandthephilosophyoftheregimeabsolutepanopticgoverningandinthisconnection69paragraphshasbeenspecializedforthepro-prietiesofthedictatorSaddam.Inthiscontext,ourpointofviewisnotjustaboutthenecessityofmakingpro-posals,thatisrelatedtolifebasicrules,buttheimportantthingistorespecttheclausesbythejudgesandwithoutmakinganyexceptionforthejudgmentsofanylaw.Theconstitutionhasimpededsince1968tonowadaysandthathasresultedinahugerepressionofhumanrightsandmilitarizationofthesocietyinaseriouslevelthathasnothappenedintheworldsincethefallofNazismen.RepeatedlythepeopleofIraqhasbecomevictimsfortheabsenceoftheconsti-tutionasthecrisisofMarch,1970,regardingtheagreementbetweentheKurdsandtheArabandwhichwasendedinadisasterbymissingahugepartofIraqinationalwealthandbycreatingdisappointmentamongallIraqipeopleformiss-ingapossibilitytoliveinpeacewiththeKurdsaccordingtothelawsinthecon-stitution.Thesamefaulthappenedagain,whenthenationalfrontformedwiththe

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IraqiCommunistpartyandotherpoliticalparties.TheIraqiCommunistpartybecamevictimforthesamereasonafterashorttime.BecauseofthewarwithIrantheregimegotallenoughopportunitiestostopanychanges of legal, political, social and economical toward the better are in thecountryandthesociety.ThewarandtheexternaldangerswereexcusesusedbytheregimetohangingtheconstitutionandtoviolatehumanrightsinIraq.Accordingtoconstitutionof1970(paragraph42)theabsoluteproprieties,whichhave been exerted by president Sadam, included 120 paragraphs for execution(Deathpenalty).Generallyabouttheparagraphswhethertheyhavebeenfoundornot,thedictatorSaddamhasusedhisabsolutepoweraccordingtonatureofthisregime.Ifwegobacktoconstitutionof30July1990thenwefindalllawshasbeenimpededandviolatedeventhoughthisconstitutionhasnotbelegislatedbecauseitwasnotsubmittedtoanyvotingbytheIraqipeople.

THE LEGAL SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE OF IRAQ

TheclausesofIraqiconstitutionhavebeenviolatedsince1968,andthesituationhasbecomeextremelyworsein1979asyetandbythis,themeaningofhavingtheconstitutionbecomeuselessunderthisregime.ThereforewethinkofrebuildingthepresentlegalsystemandreviseitinconformitywiththefutureofIraqasstatewithconstitutionalfoundations,thereforethelawandnothingbutthelawshouldbethebasicforallreformsthatcreatesharmonybetweenthelawsononesideandharmonybetweenthesocietyreformsinconnectionwiththeprinciplesofreformsintheworldontheotherside.

Inplaceofthepresentlegalsystemoftheregime,webelieveinnewchangingasfollows:1. Forbiddingthetortureofpoliticalprisonerandabolishthelawofamputation

andtattoo.Thepeoplewhohavecarriedoutsuchcrimesmustbepunishedforthat.

2. ReformingtheIraqilawofgrantingcitizenship,whichisrepresentingabadexample and which is in a disagreement with International Conventionsconcerningthehuman’srights.

3. Carryingoutanewlawthatlegalizingthereturnofallimmigrants,whohadbeenforcedto leave theirhomelandIraq.The lawhasalso toensure thosepeopletheirrightssuchascompensatingthelosingoftheirproperties.

4. Abolishingallresolutions,thathasbeencarriedoutthroughtheGoverningRevolutionCouncilbecauseofitsdisagreementtotheconstitutioninIraqandthatwillrequirealongtimetofindoutallresolutionsandclausesnumbersandthedateoftheissuing.

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5. Abolishing all clauses that has deprive people their job because of theremarryingtoIraqiwomenandtoArabicwomenandthewomenofforeigner.Thoseclausesinouropinionarepointingtoaracial,nationalisticandreligiousdiscriminationandmustbeeliminated.

6. Abolishingallrestrictionsfromthelawsandtheresolutionsconcerningtheforeigner’s currencies and to give the people possibility to deal freely withthosecurrenciesaccordingtoafreeeconomicprogram.

7. Abolishing Arabzation policy against the Kurd and the policy of racialcleansingandcompensatethosepeopleforthosecrimesagainstthem.

8. Studyingthesituationsintheprisonsandcarryoutaradicalreformaboutitbyusingconceptoftreatmentinsteadofthepunishmentthroughtheeducation,rehabilitationandcompensationoftheprisoners.

9. Abolishingallrestrictionsofhabitationandnullityallaclauses,thatrestrictstherightsofmovingandtheresidencyinanypartofthecountryaccordingto constitutions, Iraqi laws and the international conventions among thesetheparagraphs13ofhumanrights,thatincludefreerightsforresidencyandparagraphs12from(International

10.Nullity all laws and resolutions about carrying out mass punishment andinsteadrespectingconceptofindividualpunishmentandalsotocompensatingallpeopleforlossanddamagethataffectedthembecauseofthecovertandtheovertresolutions.

11.Abolishingall resolutionsand instructions that restrict freedomof religion.Grantingtherightstoexertthereligiousceremonialsthatdonotprovokethegeneralpublic.

12.Abolishingthe lawof forbiddingtheactivityof(Behavepeople)andwhichwascarriedoutin1970againstthisgroupbecausethathasbeenagainsttheInternationalConventionstoosuchasthelawofexecutionoftheiractivists.

13.AbolishingthepenaltyofexecutionfromallIraqicivilresolutionsandmilitarypunishmentslaws.

14.Abolishing all laws and resolutions that create superiority for one caste inproportiontoother,becausethatinfractstheconstitutionandtheinternationalcompacts.

15.IssuingaspeciallawtofrozebalancesthathavebeenembezzledfromtheIraqitreasuryandpunishthepeoplewhohaveparticipatedinthiscrime,becausetheIraqwealthdoesnotbelongtoanypersonbuttotheIraqipeople.

16.Abolishing the rent estate of 1978 and the state has to provide peopleappropriate habitation and prevent the exploitation. It is important toencourage the private sector to provide habitations unities too in order toprovidethepeopleacomfortablehousingpolicy.

17.Carryingout anew law thatprevent tackinga statement from theaccused

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unlessthathappensbyaclerkinlawandalawyertobepresent.18.Thepenaltieslawsmustberevisedandreplacebyrehabilitationinorderto

granttheprisonersadecentlife.19.Changingthelawsofmilitaryserviceof1940andconsiderIraqasneutrality

country,thereforethemilitaryservicewillbevoluntarilyforthewomanandthemaninthenexttwodecades.

20.Improvingtheroleofwomaninthesocietyandtofightagainstdiscriminationpolicybetweenmanandwomen.

21.Support thewomen rights by improve the conditionsof their life and stopabusingtheirrightsinthesocietyandtoprotectthemofsexualharassment.

22.Forbidding the ideology of Baath Party because its foundations and policybasedonextremelyfanaticalnationalisticpointofview.

23.Fightingagainstallformsforreligiousfanaticismandterrorismandinsteadofthatpopularisethecultureoftoleranceandtorespectthehumansrightsprinciples.

TheJudicatureofIraqisrepresentingafundamentguaranteeforachievingjusticeinthesociety.Inthecountriesthatareidenticalwiththeconstitutional institu-tionsthejudicatureissovereignandindependentandnothingbutthelawisaboveit.AllIraqiconstitutionsisbasedonthispointtoo(principleofSovereigntyofjudiciarysystem).OneoftheforemostassignmentsthestateofthelawofIraqinfuturehastoworkforistoprotecttheimposingnessofjudicatureandtoprotectitssovereigntyac-cording to the principles of the constitution. This will accomplish an internalharmonybetweenthelawsandimplementtheminthesocietyononesideandachievingjusticeonotherside.Thereforeitwillbeimportanttoconcentrateondevelopingjudiciarysystem,thejudicialcareerandtoestablishingpropercourtsforinterpleading.Byimprovingthelegalsystemandjusticesysteminthenexttwodecadesmustalsoconcentrateonmotivating theroleof Iraqiwomen indifferent fields,andwhichhasnotbeenallowedforwomentoexertcareersuchas legaladviser incourtofappeal(CivilDivision,CriminalDivision),andhighcourt.The reform must also include closing down some courts such as “Revolutioncourt”thathasseriousshortageinperformingandapplyingthelawbecauseofrepresentingtheregimesattitudein judgment,andontheotherhandmusttheemploymentproceduresbeimportantinordertohaveaqualifiedpeopleinthisfield,becausethatplaysacentralroletohavesecureandaneffectivelegalsystemandthereforeevenemployeeinthepolicesystemmustbegraduatedinlaw.ThejudiciarysystemhastobelongtoJusticeMinistry.In transitionalperiodwehave to thinkofcreatinga specialisedauthoritywith

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highknowledgetostudythelawandlegislationinconformitywiththeconstitu-tion,UniversalDeclarationofHumanRights,andtheInternationalConventions.Thehighconstitutioncourtinfactwillurgedthisworkandinadditionwillcon-sideranewplantolegislationlawsforthefutureofIraqlikeacivilizedcountrybelievinginpeaceandtolerance.

THE LAW OF NATIONAL FRONT

Wethinkofthecomingpoliticalsystemmustbebasedonwidenationalfrontandtheirpointofviewis totackthemistakeof theSaddam’sregimeinconsidera-tionandtofocusingonnottoletthemhappenagain.Thereforeitisimportanttoestablishthelawofthenationalfrontthatworkstoimplementhumanrightsprinciplesinallfieldsandissuethelawofgeneralamnestycanbeastartforthataimbutnotfortheverydangerouscrimes.Wethinkalsoaboutabolishingallthepresentlawsconcerningthetrading,theCentralBank,andcompaniesandinstead,issuenewlawsthatgivemoreaspecttofreemarketandencouragingtheprivatesectorinordertocreaterationaleco-nomicpolicy.AlargepartofthelawsthatiscarriedoutrightnowinIraqisreturninginfacttoIndia,Osmannisctime,theBritishcolonytime,andthedictatorshipatlast.Therefore the situationof judiciaryhas alwaysbeenunstable and far from theIraqi people influence and Iraqi society benefit. Consequently the specialisedcommitteesof judiciary in futurehave to clarify the confusion about judiciaryenvironments and devise new and solid process to improve it and to help thepeopleofIraqtocreateapositiveattitudetowarditaftermanyyearsofsufferingandrepressing.Theconceptof“discrimination”hasbeenapartoftheregimespoliticprogramsconcerning the ethnical question, religious believe and women rights. For thisreason,thequestionofIraqiwomenrightsmustberecognizedandbeprotectedthroughissuedlawsconcerningmanyfieldssuchastheIraqicivillaws,theIraqipenaltylaws.

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AmericanEnterpriseInstituteforPublicPolicyResearchWashington,D.C.Conference:TheDayAfter:PlanningforaPost-SaddamIraq

PaperpresentedbyMuntheral-Fadhal,Ph.D.Counsellor-at-lawandhumanrightsauthorFormerVisitingProfessorofMiddleEastLawsInternationalCollegeofLaw:LondonStockholm,SwedenMemberoftheCounciloftheInternationalInstituteIFIMES

WAR CRIMES

LadiesandGentlemen:Iwouldlikefirsttothankyouforyourkindinvitationtospeakatthisimportantconferenceconcerning“WitherIraq.”IwishtoexpressmygratitudetothefriendsoftheIraqipeopleintheUnitedStateswhoaretryingtohelpthemgaintheirfreedom,builddemocracy,andestablishtheruleoflaw.ThisdesiredfutureforIraqcouldonlybeachievedthroughtwoimportantmeans:First, Trying the Iraqi officials accused of committing international crimes inordertoaffirmtheprincipleofretribution,establishjustice,applythelaw,andrespecthumanrights.ThisisthepointofdepartureintendedtoaccordthelawtheleadingroleinthelandofMesopotamiathatestablishedthefirstlawsinhu-manhistory.Second,ModifyingtheshapeoftheIraqiStatetowardsaunited,federal,parlia-mentarystate,dismantlingtheorgansofthedictatorialregime,andrebuildingtheorgansofthenewIraqistatewhichwouldbecommittedtopursuethefollowing:1. Establishingthefederalsystem.2. Respectinghumanrightsandtheruleoflaw.3. Declaringstateneutralityandneverengaginginanywarinthefuture.4. Constructingdemocracyandcivilsociety.

Myparticipationinthispanelonwarcrimes,whichisthesecondpanelofthisconference,isintendedtodiscussthetransitioninthejusticesystem.IthusstatemylegalopinionintheformofmyresponsestothequestionsputtomebytheChair,Mr.Christopher:

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QUESTIONONE:HOWCANSADDAMHUSSEINANDOTHERSBEBROUGHTTOJUSTICEFORTHEIRCRIMES?

Answer:There is not the slightest doubt that Saddam and a large number of the highofficials around him have committed serious, international crimes against theIraqipeople(theShi’aArabsinthesouth,theKurdsinHalabjaandintheAnfalcampaigns, and the Faili Kurds), including crimes of genocide, crimes againsthumanity,andwarcrimes,aswellascrimesofterrorismandofaggressionagainstneighbouringstatesandtheregimecontinuestoconstituteathreatforpeaceandsecurityintheregionandintheworld.Allthesecrimesviolateinternationallawsandconventions.SaddamandhisrulehaskillednolessthantwomillionIraqisinhisinternalandexternalwars,andheisthecauseforthedispersalofanadditionalfourmillionIraqisindifferentcountriesintheworld.Asfortheexternalwars,Saddam’sregimelaunchedwaragainstIran1980-88,inwhichhedeployedall kindsof internationallybannedweapons suchchemicalweapons,deliberatehittingofciviliantargets,andpoisoningwatersources.Sadd-am’sregimeisadictatorialregimethatpracticesstateterrorism.OnAugust2nd1990,Saddam’sregimecommittedacriminalaggressionandoccupiedtheStateofKuwait,fromwhichherefusedtowithdraw,forcingtheinternationalcommu-nitytobuildacoalitiontoliberateKuwait.Moreover,Saddam’sregimehitciviliantargetsintheStateofIsraelwith39missiles,whichconstitutesacrimeofaggres-sioninviolationofUN-Charter.AndSaddam’sarmysetmostoftheoilwellsinKuwaitonfirebeforeitsforcedwithdrawal,causingthegreatestenvironmentalcatastropheintheworldthatinvolvedtheannihilationofalargenumberoflivingbeingsaswellasseriousenvironmentalpollution.NeitherSaddamnorhisregimehasevercompliedwithinternationaldecisions.He secretly pursued dangerous programmes to produce lethal weapons andweaponsofmassdestruction,thusthreateningpeace,security,andstability,bothinternalandexternal,regionalandinternational.Anyfairtrial,inaccordancewithinternationalstandardsmusthavethefollowingfouringredients:1. A defendant accused of a crime. There are many persons who committed

warcrimes in Iraq; somework for theBaathParty, some for thearmy, thesecurity and even many Iraqi officials. In my legal opinion we cannot tryallthesesuspects,butonlythosewhoareresponsibleforseverviolationsofinternationallaw.TrialsagainstallIraqidefendantscouldtakeseveralyears.SoweshouldfirstbesureofhowmanyIraqileadersareresponsibleforthosewarcrimes,whicharecommittedafterthe17thofJuly1968.OtherSuspects

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anddefendantsshould,aftertheestablishmentofaTruthandReconciliationCommittee and under certain conditions to governed by law, get generalpardon.

2. Legalproofs.3. A just, impartial court (open trial, right of appeal, victim and witness

protection…)

Wealreadyhavethesethreeingredientsinplace,butanewIraqmustshowanewleaf,andwhatbetternewleafthantheabolishmentofthedeathsentence-evenforwarcriminals, for I support theabolishmentof thedeathpenalty,asdeathpenaltyisregardedasaviolationofthefundamentalrightsoflifeandcontravenesinalienablerightsenshrinedinUniversalDeclarationofHumanRightsandotherinternationalhumanrightsconventionsfromallIraqilawsandindemnitejudici-aryallvictims.Mostof theaccusedofwarcrimes(i.e.SaddamandotherhighIraqiofficials)liveinsideIraqandsomeresideoutsideIraq.Thelegalproofs,likerecordsanddocuments,areavailableintheUnitedStatesandwiththeLondonorganizationINDICTandtherearealsosurvivingvictimsandwitnessesoftheinternationalcrimescommittedbytheIraqiregimeinsideandoutsideIraq.

TheCourtModels:

RegardingthespecialcourtthatlooksintothewarcrimescommittedbySaddamandtheIraqiofficials,wecanconsiderthefollowingpossibilities:1. The International Crime Court, the Statute of which was adopted Rome

1998andcameintoforceonApril11,2002,cannotbringthesecriminaltotrialbecauseIraqisnotapartytotheStatuteofthisCourtandtheCourtstemporaljurisdictionistotryonlycrimescommittedafterSeptember1,2002.The crimesofSaddamand theofficials ofhis regimeoccurredbefore thisdate.

2. ASpecialInternationalWarCrimetotrySaddamandtheIraqiofficialscouldbesetupbyaresolutionfromtheUnitedNation’sSecurityCouncil,similarto the Special International War Crimes for former Yugoslavia, RwandaandSierraLeone,on thecondition that itsheadquartersbe inTheHague,Holland.

3. ANationalIraqiCourtcouldbesetup,byrecruitingagroupofIraqijudges,jurists, investigators and administrative specialists. This choice wouldmaintaintheintegrityofthenationalsovereigntyoftheIraqiState.ThelocalcourtsystemtotryIraqiwarcriminalsunderIraqilawcreatedfourcategoriesofcrimes,eachwithdifferentpunishments:

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· Thefirstcategoryrelatestoindividuals“whosecriminalactsorwhoseactsofcriminalparticipationplacethemamongtheplanners,organizers,instigators,supervisorsandleadersofthecrimeofgenocide,crimesagainsthumanity, war crimes and the crime of aggression”. Theses individualsshouldincludepersonswhoactedinpositionsofauthorityatthenational,governorate,communalorsectorlevel,orinapoliticalparty,thearmyandmilitias,andwhoperpetratedorfosteredsuchcrimes.

· The second category: relates to individuals “whose criminal acts orwhoseactsofcriminalparticipationplacethemamongtheperpetrators,conspiratorsoraccomplicesofinternationalhomicideorofseriousassaultagainstthepersoncausingdeath”.Theseincludeparticipantsinindividualmurdercases,whereitisclearthatadefendantparticipatedinsuchcrimes,butwhereitmaybedifficulttoproveatiebetweensuchindividualcrimeandthoseofthecrimeslistedinthefirstcategory.

· The third category: relates to individuals “whose criminal acts orwhose acts of criminal participation make them guilty of other seriousassaultsagainsttheperson”.ThiscategorywouldinvolveindividualswhoparticipatedinseriousassaultsagainstIraqis,suchastorturebutwhereitisdifficulttoproveparticularamurdercaseagainstsuchindividuals.

· The fourth category: addresses persons who committed offencesagainstproperty and the environment.Thiswould involve accusedwhoparticipatedinthedestructionofvillagesinKurdistan,thedryingupofthemarshesandtheoilspillsfollowingtheGulfWarof1991.

5. A mixed court composed of judges appointed by Iraq and by the UnitedNations,similartotheoneestablishedforSierraLeone.

6. Call Saddam and the other Iraqi official for trial in an American courtspecialised in international terrorist crimes in accordance with Americanfederal legislation. This is justified by several indications that point to aconnection between Saddam’s regime and the international terrorist acts,especiallythosecommittedbytheal-Qa’idacriminalorganization.

QUESTION TWO: HOW CAN A NATION RECOVER WHEN ITS MILITARY AND GOVERNMENT HAVE BEEN IMPLICATED IN GENOCIDE AGAINST THEIR OWN PEOPLE?

Answer:Iraqcanneverrecoveritsstrengthandriseagaintoliveasacivilizedcountrythatrespectshumanrightsandtheprinciplesoflawunlessthefollowingconditionsaremet:

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1. Buildingdemocracyandcivilsociety.2. Respectinghumanrightstoalltheethnicnationalities,recognizingpluralism,

andcombatingextremism,fanaticism,andterrorism.3. IdentifyingtheideologyoftheBaathPartyasbeingsimilartoNaziideology,

accordinglybanning it inIraq.Creatingacultureof toleranceandcivilizeddemocratic dialogue among the members all ethnicities, religions, andideologies.

4. Securing international support for Iraq, pursuing a Marshall plan for itsreconstruction of Iraq, and defining a direction for its path of peace, andeconomic,cultural,religious,andintellectualfreedoms.

5. DeclaringIraqaneutralcountrythatdoesnotengageinwarsandisledbycivilianselectedthroughconstitutionalinstitutions.InthisnewIraq,women,representinghalfthesociety,playanactiverole.

6. Establishinggoodneighbourlyrelationswiththecountriesintheregionandothercountriesintheworld,normalizingrelationswiththeStateofIsrael,andrespectingallinternationaltreaties,conventions,andlegitimateresolutions.

7. Paying compensations from the Iraqi treasury to all Iraqis who sufferedas victims of the successive dictatorial regimes that ruled the country (theIraqisfromamongtheArabShi’as,theKurds,theFailiKurds,theJews,theTurkmen,theCaldeans,theAssyrians,andtheothers)aswellasthevictimsofwarsandthecrimesagainsthumanrights.

8. Promulgating a permanent constitution and reforming the legal system inIraq.

QUESTION THREE: HOW CAN THE EXPERIENCES OF THE OTHER POST-TOTALITARIAN STATES INFORM IRAQ’S FUTURE?

Answer:WecanbenefitfromthesuccessfulexperiencesofthecountriesthatprecededIraqinthisrealmaftertheyhavebeenliberatedfromtotalitariandictatorialregimes,suchasRumania,Yugoslavia,andothers.WecanpursuetheestablishmentofaciviliangovernmentelecteddemocraticallyunderthesupervisionoftheUnitedNations, the respectofpeaceful successionofpower, thedisseminationof thecultureofpeace,tolerance,andtherecognitionoftheother,aswellastheabol-ishmentofthedeathpenalty.Moreover,weneedtomaintaintheindependenceofthejudiciaryasinallcivilizedcountries,separatereligionfromthestate,andestablishasecularstatethatrecognizesandrespectstheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRightsandissuestheBillofRightsofIraqiCitizens.

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WecanalsoexamineYugoslavia’sexperimentandadoptfromitwhateverisben-eficialtotheIraqisociety,sincetherearesomesimilaritiesbetweenthetwocoun-triesincertainaspects,especiallyintherealmofethnic,religious,andideologicaldiversity in the two countries. For such pluralist countries, the federal systemsuitesthembest.WeobservethatYugoslaviahassolvedtheproblemsconcerningtheregimeandmulti-ethnicity according the Dayton Accord that organized governance andpeacefulsuccessionofpower,throughapresidentialcouncil,whosechairmanshipalternatesbetweenmembersrepresentingthethreemainethnicnationalitiesthatconstitutedex-Yugoslavia.TheshapeofthegoverningsystemofthenewIraqhasbeendealtwithintheconstitutionproposedbytheKurdistanDemocraticPartyfortheFederalStateofIraqinwhichthenewIraqwillconsistof tworegions,ArabicandKurdish,withinwhichtherightsoftheotherminoritiesarerespected.ThisproposedconstitutioncomesveryclosetotheideasthatIdraftedandintro-ducedintheblueprintofaprojectfortheconstitution,andwhichwaspublishedinAl-Mutamernewspaper,no.305.Moreover,wecanbenefitfromex-Yugoslavia’sexperiencebyseekingtheexpertiseofsomepoliticalpersonalitieslikeMr.RichardHallbrook,theformerAmericanAmbassadortotheUnitedNations,andPeterGalbraith,theformerUnitedStatesambassadorinCroatia.Finally,inspiteofthegreatdifferencesbetweenthesitu-ationinAfghanistanandIraq,therearemanypositiveaspectsthattookplaceinpost-TalibanAfghanistanthatcouldbebeneficialforIraqsuchashavingacivilianasaheadofstate,unifyingthedifferenttribes,andactivatingtheroleofwomen.

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Iraqi Kurdistan - Ten years of self-rule and future prospectsAn International ConferenceUniversity of Southern Denmark, 30th November – 1st December 2002 in Odense, Denmark

Paper presented byMunther Al Fadhal, PhDFormer Visiting professor of Middle Eastern law International College of Law in LondonCounsellor-at-law and human rights authorStockholm, SwedenMember of the Council of the International Institute IFIMES

THE FEDERALISM AND THE FUTURE OF IRAQ

INTRODUCTION

PrinciplesofFederalisminFutureIraq:ThenatureandsystemofgovernmentinIraqisresponsibleformostofitsexternalandinternalproblemssinceitsinceptionin1921anduntilthepresenttime.AdeficiencyexistsinthepoliticalandconstitutionalstructureforIraqsincethefirstestablishedconstitution“BasicLaw”of1925untilthelastconstitutionof1970,characterizedbyexcessivecentralizationandtheruleofanindividualespeciallysince1979theyearSaddamHusseinascendedtopower.Thisironfistcentralau-thoritycontradictswiththeestablishmentofademocraticsocietyandcivilsoci-etyespeciallyinacountrylikeIraqwithadiverseethnicandreligiouspopulationandvaryingpoliticalpartiesandmovements.Asaresult,theKurdishpopulationwassubjecttowarcrimesandthecrimeofgenocide.OtherethnicgroupswerenotsparedfromsuchcrimesincludingthemajorityArabShiite.Inordertoestablishademocraticsystem,ruleofthelawandconstitutionalinsti-tutionsitisnecessarytochangethetypeofgovernmentandnatureofruleforma simple state based on centralization to a federal compound union, wherebytheauthoritiesaredistributedamongtheregionalgovernmentsandinstitutions.Suchaset-upiscompatiblewithIraq’sdiversepopulationandanintroductiontoresolvetheKurdishissueandtorecognizetheirlegitimaterightsforwhichtheyhavesubmittedhugesacrifices.Thus, theKurdswillhave independence insidetheKurdishregion,whichispartoftheonestateofIraqthatwillensurepeace,security and stability inside Iraq andoutsideof it.Thiswoulddispel fear of a

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break-upofIraqandwouldemphasizetheprinciplesofdemocracyandfreedomthatcannotbeobtainedinadictatorialsystembecausefederalismanddemocracyareinterrelated.StabilityandpeacecannotbesecuredinfuturefederalIraqwithoutrecognizingthefollowingbases;1. Ensure respect for democratic freedoms such as freedom of opinion,

expression,thoughts,assembling,belief,peacefulcongregationandthelikes.2. Ensurerespectfortransferofpowerbypeacefulmeansthoughthefreeand

democraticelections.3. Respect for theprincipleofmulti-politicalpartiesand forpeacefulpolitical

opposition.4. Emphasize the separation of powers among the legislative, executive and

judicialbranchesofgovernment.5. Separationofstateandreligion.6. Maintaintheindependenceofthejudicialbranchofgovernment.7. Separatethemilitaryestablishmentfrompoliticsandpartyaffiliation.8. Establish High federal constitutional court in charge of overseeing the

applicationoflaworthebreachoflawinlightoftheruleoflaw.9. Grantequalrightsforwomentothatofmaninrightsandresponsibilities,also

securethemaintenanceofchild’s,handicappedandelderlyrights.10.Ensurefreedomofreligiousbelief.Institutetheprincipleofreligious,ethnic

and intellect tolerance. Respect for human rights in accordance to theinternationalcharterforhumanrightsandotherinternationaldeclarations.

FIRST - THE KURDISH POSITION IN FUTURE IRAQ

TheKurdishpositionseesthesolutiontotheKurdishissuethroughtheirinde-pendence inmanaging theaffairsofKurdistanRegion.Theconstitutionalrela-tionshipbetweentheKurdsandtheArabsoughttoberegulatedthroughafederalformofgovernmentafterthesimpleformisdismantledandacompoundfederalunion isestablished.Thiswillensure that theKurdswillmanage theaffairsoftheirregionandparticipateinthepoliticaldecision-makingprocessofthecentralfederalgovernmentbasedonthedecentralizationofauthoritiesandpolicies.TherestoftheethnicgroupssuchastheTurkuman,Assyrian,andothersenjoyfullcitizenship,parliamentaryandjudicialrightswhethertheylivedintheAra-bicregionsortheKurdishregion.Theserightsincludetheuseoftheirnationallanguage in special schools, establishing theirpoliticalparties,publishing theirownnewspapersandfullyrepresentingandparticipatinginthelegislative,execu-tiveandjudicialbranchesofgovernment.Theserightsareregulatedthroughtheconstitutionandaspecialdecreeforregulatingtherightsandresponsibilitiesof

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ethnicgroups.TheseprinciplesaredeclaredinthedraftpresentedbytheKurdishleadership.

SECOND - POLITICAL PARTIES, MOVEMENTS ANDINDEPENDENTS POSITION TO FEDERALISM

Iraqi political parties, movements and independents that participated in Sala-huldeenConference in1992adoptedFederalismasa solution for theKurdishissue,whichhasdrainedIraq’sresourcesandaffectedpeaceandstabilityinthearea.Moreover,manyIraqipoliticalparties,movementsandindependentshaveopenlydeclaredtheFederaloptionthroughtheirdeclarations,publicationsandannouncementssuchas;1. IraqiCommunistParty.2. SupremeCouncilfortheIslamicRevolutioninIraq.3. IraqiNationalCoalition.4. IraqiNationalCongress.5. MilitaryConferenceorganizedbytheMilitaryCoalitioninJuly2002.6. FreeIraqCouncil.7. DeclarationforIraqiShiite.8. ManyIndependentIraqiPoliticalFigures.

THIRD - THE POSITION OF OTHER ETHNIC GROUPS(TURKUMAN, ASSYRIAN AND OTHERS)

1. thePositionoftheTurkuman;DistinctionmustbemadebetweentwopartsofTurkuman;thefirstpartrepresentsthemajorityofTurkuman,liveinpeaceand tolerance in Kurdistan, they are represented in the Kurdish RegionalParliament,participateintheRegionalGovernmentandenjoyfullcitizenshiprightsasmentionedabove.Thepositionof thisgroupofTurkumanisclearandknown;theyrespectthestrongbindwithKurds,ArabsandAssyrian.TheyhaverealattachmenttothesoilofIraqandhavenoproblemwiththeKurdsenjoyingFederalismagainstsecuringtheircitizenshiprights.Thesecondpartrepresentsaminority,aretheTurkumanFront,whichhasstrongtiestoTurkey.Thisgroupdemandsself-independencewithinalargeillegitimategeographicalborder.

2. ThePositionoftheAssyrian;thisgroupisinvolvedinabattleoverhistoricalidentityamongthemselves.TheAssyrianbelievethattheyandtheChaldeanare from the sameethnicoriginwhile someChaldean reject thisnotionofethnic assimilation. This group live in the Kurdish Region and the Arabic

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Region.TheonesintheKurdishRegionenjoyfullcitizenshiprightssimilartotheTurkuman,whiletheonesintheArabicRegionsufferfromdictatorship,whichpersecuteallIraqisofallethnicbackgrounds.

RisksandHurdles;1. The Turkish Position; The objections made by Turkey through public

announcementsand the threat toenterandoccupyKurdistan-Iraq isbasedontheassumptionthataFederalKurdistanoraKurdishStaterepresentsadangertothenationalsecurityofTurkey.Therearegraveinternalproblemswith the Kurdish population inside Turkey whereby the Kurds human andnational rightsareabused.Moreover,Turkeydemandsethnic rights for theTurkumanandistryingtofindaself-governmentorafederalgovernmentforthemdespitethelackoflegalbasisforthat.

2. Some Iraqi Opposition; Some Iraqi Opposition parties may not accept theconceptofFederalismpresentedbytheKurdsastheyseefitinlightoftheirlegitimaterightforself-determination.ThefearisthatFederalismisthebreak-upofIraq;thereforesomeoftheIraqiOppositionsubmitsadifferenttypeofFederalism,whichdoesnotconformtoIraq’ssociety.Finally,noIraqiGroupiswillingtosacrificeFederalismespeciallytheonesthatfollowademocraticpath.

3. The Kurdish House; The rift inside the Kurdish house is preventing theFederalism for being applied. The last meeting between the two KurdishParties (October 2002), the KDP and the PUK is playing a major role inremoving these rifts, helping establish Federalism and draw the new Iraqcorrectly.

4. The struggle forKurdishKirkuk;which is inhabitedbyamajorityKurdishpopulation(48%)asperthe1957census.

Recommendations,LegalandPoliticalSolutions;1. International Guarantees for Respecting and Applying Federalism; Any

application for Federalism in future Iraq needs international guarantees toensurestability,securityandrespectfortheKurdishchoiceinitsrelationshipwiththeArabicRegionsandwiththeotherminorities.TheseguaranteesneedtobepresentedbytheUSAtoavoidbreachintheformandstructureoftheFederal State of Iraq and the new civil rule. International guarantees shalldispelconcernfromallethnicsandreligiousgroupsinfutureIraq.

2. InternalGuarantees;isachievedthroughadeclarationbytheIraqiOppositionfor Federalism for the Kurdish People on Kurdistan Region, during theirGeneralMeetingscheduledforNovember2002.TheFederalchoiceneedstobepartoftheworksofthenextTransitionGovernmentinpostSaddamIraq

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inaccordancetotheproposedfederalconstitutionforthestateofIraq.3. SolvingtheKurdishIssueisKeytoSolvingtheIraqiIssue;throughbuilding

democraticprinciples,respectforhumanrightsanddemocraticinstitutions,recognition for all ethnic groups without discrimination based on origin,language, religion and others in accordance to the legal and constitutionalrightsinthenewIraq.Democracyisnottheruleofthemajority,butistheruleofallandtheparticipationofall.

Basedontheaboveprelude,theconstitutionneedstobebasedonaunionamongTHREEregions;(TwoArabicRegionsandOneKurdishRegion):-FIRST:ConstitutionforFederalIraq-SECOND:ConstitutionforKurdistanRegion-THIRD:ConstitutionforArabicRegionintheSouthbasedongeography-FOURTH:ConstitutionforArabicRegionintheMiddlebasedongeography.

Naturally, theoption forFederalism for Iraq is an application for theKurdishpeopleright forself-determinationandthustheKurdishpeoplewilldecidethenatureof therelationshipwiththeArabicRegionswithouttheneedtoasktheArabs throughareferendumabout theirposition inregards toFederalismasafutureoption,buttohaveareferendumforadraftpermanentconstitutionfortheFederalStateofIraq.ConsequentlyseparatereferendaareneededforRegionalConstitutionsforeachRegion.

LegislativeAuthority:(ParliamentsRequiredinFederalIraq)-FIRST-CentralFederalParliament(LegislativeFederalAuthority)

1.Representatives’Council2.RegionalCouncils

-SECOND-LocalParliamentElectedinKurdistan(LegislativeAuthority)-THIRD-LocalParliamentElectedinArabicRegionintheSouth-FOURTH-LocalParliamentElectedinArabicRegionintheMiddle

ExecutiveAuthorityforCentralFederalState:-FIRST-PresidentoftheState(CeremonialPositionfora4-yeartermsubjecttoonetimeextension).-SECOND-CouncilofMinisters(UpperExecutiveAuthority)

UpperFederalConstitutionalCourt(basedinBaghdad)looksintospecificcasessuchas;- TheelectedPresidentshallreadtheoathofofficeinfrontoftheheadand

committeeofthiscourt.

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-Lookintoandtakeresolutionsinregardstoconflictsamongtheregionsorbetweenaregion(s)andtheFederalgovernment.

Authority’sBorders:ThebordersbetweentheKurdishRegionandtheArabicRegionsshallconformtotheproposalsubmittedbytheKurdishleadership(DraftfortheConstitutionfortheFederalStateofIraq)–Thebaseforthesaidbordersisgeographic.RightforOtherEthnics(Turkuman,Assyrianandothers)Their rightsareguaranteed through thecitizenshiprights inaccordance to theconstitution,lawandinternationalguaranteesreferredtoabove.

ResponsibilitiesoftheFederalGovernment;1. Drawtheforeignpolicyanddiplomaticandconsulaterepresentation.2. Signinternationaltreatiesandagreements.3. Defenceandarmedforceswhereasthearmyisfordefenceandnotoffence,

joining the military needs to be voluntary and not compulsory for bothgenders.

4. Printthenationalcurrencyplanthebankreservepolicyandexecutefederalloans.

5. Economicanddevelopmentplanning.6. ManagetheGeneralBalanceofPayment.7. GeneralFederalSecurity.8. Citizenship,immigrationandresidencyforforeignnationals.9. Powerandnationalresources.

THE ADVANTAGES TO A FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

There are many advantages to a federal democratic republic especially in Iraqwherewecanfindmulti-Ethnics,differentreligionsanddifferentopinions.Feder-alismdoesnotexistinadictatorregime.InIraqtherearetwomainnationalities(Arabs and Kurds) besides the other minorities such as (Turkuman, Assyrian,Arman).FederalismshouldthereforebecomeacornerstoneofthenewIraqibodylegal-poli-tics.FederalismalsoabolishesthediscriminationbetweenthedifferentnationalitiesinIraq,distributetheequityandjusticeandrespecthumanrights.Itcanconfirmtheparticipationinauthoritiesbetweenregionsgovernments.Thereforefederalismhasmanyadvantagesincountries,whichhasdifferentnationalitiesandreligions.ItisthebestsolutionfortheIraqiproblemsespeciallytheconflictsbetweenIraqigovernmentandtheKurdforseveraldecades.ThemostimportantadvantagetoafederalismdemocraticrepublicistokeeptheunityoftheIraqistate.

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Whichcivilandpolitical rightsshouldbeenumerated inIraq’s futureconstitu-tion?ThecivilrightsthatshouldbeenumeratedinIraq’sfutureconstitutionare:1. Theliferight.2. Therightofthephysicalsafety.3. Thethinkingandtheexpressionfreedom.4. Therightofthereligiousbeliefandthenon-religiousbeliefandtherightof

changingreligiousbelief.5. Theagreementfreedom.6. Themoveandtravelrightwithoutrestrictions.7. Therightofownershipandnon-confiscationofproperties.8. Eachpersonshouldhaveanationality.Andshouldnotbedroppeddoesfrom

him.9. The correspondences and communications secrecy right without any

espionagefromanyauthority.10.Andmanyotherrightswhicharementionedintheinternationaldeclaration

ofhumanrights.

Whichwomen’srightsshouldbehighlightedinthefutureofIraq?Thewomen’srightsthatshouldbehighlightedare:1. Thecompleteequalityintherightsandthedutieswiththeman.2. Theworkrightbyequalwageswiththeman.3. Therightofequalchancesbetweenthemanandthewoman.4. The body protection right from any violence treatment, rape crimes and

circumcision.5. TheRightofhusbandselection.6. Protectionfromthehonourkilling.7. Protectionfromthepolygamy.8. Thekindergartenrights.9. TheRightoffreetravelandmovementwithoutlimits(withoutMohram).10.Therightofundertakingofallofthepoliticalpositionsandthejudicialand

administrativeone.11.Therightofvotingandcandidature.12.ProtectionRight from thecoercionon themarriage.And the rightofnon-

marriagebeforethematurity.13.TheabortionRight.14.Lawlegislationaboutsexualharassmentisneeded.

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IFIMES –The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies in Ljublja-na analyses events going on in the world. The analysis of the situation in Turkey is the contribution to the better understanding of events in Iraq and the region. The most interesting sections are given below.

TURKEY: THE ARMY SIDES WITH THE AKP ISLAMISTIC GOVERNMENT

AnEasternlegendsaysthatmiraclescanhappenonlytoprophetsand...politi-cians.Well,incaseoftheTurkishJusticeandWelfareAKPPartyanditspresidentRecepTayipErdogan,wehaveseenadoublemiraclehappen.ErdoganhasbecomeaprophetintheeyesoftheTurkishpeopleandaninfluentialpoliticianwithabsolutemajorityintheTurkishparliament,althoughhehasgotnopoliticalfunctionyetintheParliamentnorinthegovernment.ThevictoryofAKPshockedalltheprotagonists,whowerecarefullyobservingthefunctioningofallTurkishgovernments.InthisrespectweshouldpointouttheTurkisharmywhichhasplayedacrucialroleinthenationalpolicyeversincethefoundingofthestateontheruinsoftheoldOttomanEmpirein1920.Thearmyhasalwaysregardeditselfastheguardianofthesecularandpro-Europeanherit-age.Duringpoliticalandeconomiccrises,ithasevenintervenedandoverthrownlegitimatelyelectedgovernmentsseveraltimes(1960,1971,1980in1997).Today,Turkeyisfacingadoublepoliticalandeconomiccrisis,thereforethearmyhas,inaccordancewithalltherulesofTurkishpoliticalheritage,thereasonforanother interventionandtakeoverof thepower.WhenhisAKPpartywon,Er-dogandeniedtheofficeofprimeministertoAbdulahGul.Thiswasprohibitedbytheconstitutionsincehewassentencedtofourmonthsinprisonforhisnotori-ousintolerantpoetry(Mosquesareourbarracks,minaretsareourbayonets,thebelieversareourMujahids...).TheanalystswereoftheopinionthatAKPwould,astheotherprecedingTurk-ishleadingparties,preservetheconventionalpoliticalapproachinresolvingtheburning issuesandthat itwould, in thebestcase, implement thepro-islamisticpolicyrelatedtootherislamisticpartiesaroundtheworld.AmericanpressuresonTurkeytopassitsdemandsfor62,000Americansoldierstobeplacedonitsterritoryandtoagreetoco-ordinatedcollaborationwiththeKurdishforcesonthenorthofIraq(whenthenorthfrontopensunderAmeri-cancommand)inexchangefor$30billioninformofaidandloansecurityfellthroughafterthevotingintheparliament.AKP’spoliticalmanoeuvresprovethatthisdeclaredpro-WesternpartywithislamisticrootshasanutterlynewapproachnotonlytowardsdealingwiththeIraqicrisisbutalsoinallotherissuessuchastheEU,CyprusandorientationtowardstheIslamicstates.Atthesametime,these

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tendencieshavenonegativeeffectonclosealliancewiththeUSAandonmilitary-strategicagreementswithIsrael.ThevotingintheTurkishparliamentcanberegardedasthedoublevictoryofthepartyleader,Erdogan.HemadeitcleartoalltheprotagonistsofthepoliticalandmilitaryTurkeywhorunstheshow.HewonhisfirstvictoryattherepeatedparliamentaryelectionsintheSiirtregion(9March2003)whichopenedhimthedoortotakeovertheofficeofprimemin-ister.AstheprimeministerhewillmostprobablysendAmericandemandstotheparliamentfortheseconddiscussionandasthecharismaticleaderorderhisdepu-tieswiththemajorityintheparliamenttovotefortheadoptionofthepackage.Andthatwouldbehissecondvictory.AccordingtoAmerican-Turkishagreement,Turkeywouldhaveanimportantroleintheafter-warregulationoftheregion.ThisitemthereforepresentsthemaingainforTurkeyinordertoshowtheWestthatitisnot“thepatientfromBosporus”,astheOttomanEmpirewasnamedatthebeginningofthe20thcenturyandalsoafterthevotingintheparliamentinthebeginningofMarch2003onplacingtheAmericanforces.ErdoganiswellawarethatthefutureroleofTurkeyinthisregulationwouldgiveTurkey the position it used to have during the period of the cold war and theUSSR.However,theAmericansaregivingseriousthoughttosubstitutebasesintheTurkishneighbourhood(theconstant–Romania,Bulgaria,Tbilisi–Georgia,Iraq...).Erdogansucceededinhavingthearmysidewiththegovernmentinthisinternalcrisis.Theprecedingprimeminister,NecmettinErbekan,didnotmanagetore-solve(dis)agreementswiththearmyandwasdeposedin1997fromhisofficeofprimeminister.AccordingtotheopinionoftheIFIMESInstitute,theTurkishrecipecanbeusefulalsoforothercountrieswhichfacedoubtsintakingsidestowardsdifferentworldcrises–oneofthembeingalsoSlovenia–andfindthemselvesattheinternalpo-liticalcrossroadsnotbetweenthearmyandthegovernment(andtheparliament)butbetweenthegovernmentandthecitizens.TheTurkishgovernmenthastolookforbettersolutionswhichwouldtakeintoaccountthewillofthepeopleaswellastheAmericandemandsandatthesametimetofindasmanypoliticalandeconomicitemsaspossible(accordingtothisequation).Ofcourse,thatisnotenough,sinceitshouldnotbeincontradictionwithTurkey’spositionofthefuturememberoftheEUwhichdoesnothaveauni-fiedcommonpolicynotonlytowardstheissueofresolvingtheIraqicrisisbutalsotowardsotherissues(suchastheNorthKoreaandPalestinian-Israelicrisesetc.).

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na constantly analyses events in the regions of the Balkans and the Middle East. The most interesting sections of the comprehensive analysis of events in Macedonia are given below.

IS THE MACEDONIAN SUN GOING TO SHINE?

After the Republic of Macedonia gained independence in the early ninetiesit seemed the country would avoid conflicts, especially those based on ethnicgrounds.TheMacedoniangovernmentofthenineties,whichwas-likethepresentgovernment -burdenedwiththecommunistpast inseveralrespects,believeditwouldonceforeverfreezetheharmfulethnicvirus.However,itturnedoutthatthevirussurvivedandthatthegovernmentprognosesbecameironical.TheAlbanians,asthemajorityethnicpopulationinthewesternpartofthecoun-try,startedtoorganisethemselvespoliticallyandtotakeactionsestablishingthePDPpoliticalparty(PartyofDemocraticProsperity).PDPhadnosophisticatedpoliticalpartyprogram,anditcouldnothavehaditifwetakeintoaccounttheintellectualandsocial(political)awarenessofAlbanianswhichwasonthemar-ginsatthetime.TheAlbanianswantedtobecomeapoliticalfactorinMacedonia.In 1994, PDP won the trust of 21% of voters from the total electoral body inMacedonia.ThefailureofMacedoniansandtheirgovernment todealwiththeproblemsofethnicminoritiesresultedintheemergenceofanewpoliticalpartyofAlbaniansinMacedoniacalledDPA(DemocraticPartyofAlbanians)whichwasmoreradicalincomparisonwithPDP,especiallyregardinghumanrightsandfreedomsandtheprocessofintegrationinthevitalnationalstructuresinMac-edonia.ThepoliticalandideologicalmagicwanddidnotworkandeventuallytheAlbanians,emotionallymovedwiththeideology,tookovertheactionintotheirhands.TherewasaculminationofAlbanianradicalisminviewofachievingtheirowngoalswithoutanyunderstandingofotherethnicminorities inMacedonia,i.e. theTurks,MacedonianMuslims(Torbesi),Romaniesetc.This sociologicalturbulence,whichwasragingthroughMacedonia,resultedinthewarinthewestpartofthecountryin2001.ArmedAlbanianswithdrewtothemountainsformingpara-militarygroupssupportedbytheAlbanianmafia,thediasporaandpowerfullobbiesfromacrosstheAtlanticOcean.After the war ended, former combatants sponsored by their political mentorsformedapoliticalpartycalledtheDUI(DemocraticUnionforIntegration).ThistimetheAlbanians,havinglearntbypreviousmistakeswhichtheypaiddearlynotintegratingandparticipatingwiththeotherethnicitiesinMacedonia,decidedtocooperateandactivelyintegrateintheirownranksofintellectualsaswellastocollaboratewiththeotherethniccommunitiessuchastheTurksandMacedonian

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Muslims.TheTurksinMacedoniahaveinadditiontoco-operationwiththeAlba-niansestablishedtheirownpoliticalpartywhichhadbeenmarginalizeduntiltheRepublicofTurkeyinterferedthroughitsembassyinSkopje.AlltheseactivitiesresultedintheTDP(TurkishDemocraticParty)ortheTurkishminorityhavingthreedeputiesintheMacedonianparliament,oneambassadorandCounsellortotheMinisterofEconomy.DUI is currently the most influential Albanian political party in Macedonia.AccordingtoitsprogramdeterminationitisorientedtowardstheEuro-AtlanticIntegrationsandactsontheprinciplesofliberaldemocracy.Duringthepre-electioncampaigns,theDUIleadersadvocatedtheunionoftwoentities in Macedonia alluding to the current Dayton solution in Bosnia andHerzegovinawhichprovedtobeusefulforstoppingthewarbutnotforthefunc-tioningof a stable andmodern state.Thepost-DaytondevelopmentofBosniaand Herzegovina has already shown that ethnic political organisation can notensuretheconsensusforthedevelopmentofthestateanditsintegrationintheEuro-AtlanticIntegrations.DUIcanbedescribedaccordingtotherepresentativeoftheparty,GezimOstreni,whosaidatapressbriefinginTetovoin2001:“DUIis theparty for all thosewhoconsider themselvesdeprived in theRepublicofMacedonia.”Theirallegedflexibility,adaptabilityandunderstandingofdifferentviewsandinterestsarticulatedinamulti-ethnicpoliticalrealityofMacedoniawasconfirmedbyadeputyfromtheDUIcomingfromtheTurkishethnicminorityaswellasbyadeputyformtheethnicminorityofMacedonianMuslims.Thisisthefirstcaseoftheaffirmationofnon-AlbaniansintheAlbanianpoliticalpartyinMacedonia.TheDUIhas16deputiesintheMacedonianparliamentofthetotal26Albaniandeputies.SevenAlbaniandeputiescomefromDPAwhichisthesec-ondpartyaccordingtoitsinfluenceamongtheAlbanians.FromtheotherAlba-nianpoliticalparties,therearetwodeputiesfromthePDP(PartyofDemocraticProsperity)andonedeputyfromNDP(NationalDemocraticParty).ThepresentleadingcoalitioncomposedofSDSM(SocialDemocraticUnionofMacedonia)andDUIisfacingthepressureofinternationalaswellasdomesticpublicinrelationtoachievingconsensusregardingthedevelopmentofinterna-tionalrelationswhicharerelevantevenfortheexistenceofMacedoniaasastate.Sincethepoliticaldemagogiesofethnicnationalpolicyarenottobereliedupon,theconclusionofeventsinMacedoniawilldependonthepaceofintegrationofMacedonia in theEuro-Atlantic Integrationsandon thesupport that theUSAoffertothestatesintheBalkanregion.ThisisevenmoresignificantduetotheunfavourableattitudeofMacedonia’sneighbouringcountries.TheIFIMESInternationalInstitutebelievesthattheRepublicofMacedoniahasto continue to be actively involved in the development of sound internationalrelations–takingintoaccountthatitisaverycomplicatedmultinational,multire-

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ligiousandmulticulturalsociety.TheleadingMacedonianandAlbanianpartiesplayaspecialroleindevelopingsuchrelations.InthesamewayastheDUIin-cludedrepresentativesofotherethniccommunitiesintheregion,theMacedonianpartiesshouldincludetherepresentativesofethniccommunitiesofSerbs,Bulgar-ians,GreeksandotherssinceonlytheintegrationofminoritycommunitiesbasedonhumanrightsandfreedomsinthesociallifeofMacedoniaandtheeconomicdevelopmentcancreatetheconditionsforstabilityandprosperityofMacedonia.TheMacedoniansunwillthenshineagain.TheIFIMESInternationalInstituteisoftheopinionthatthegovernmentoftheRepublicofMacedoniamayfaceadditionaldestabilisationofthestateandthees-calationofmilitaryconflictsupportedbytheplanstoestablishanethnicAlbania.ThisisfurtheraggravatedbythecomingpoliticalcrisisinBelgradeandtheweak-enedMacedonianstate.DestabilisationofMacedoniawillenable thesocalledBalkanmafiatooperateundisturbedlyandtogainenormousprofit.ItsinterestinMacedoniahasfurtherincreasedaftertheassassinationoftheSerbianPrimeMinisterZoranĐinđić,sincethepresentSerbianauthorityisgoingtoundertakeaseriesofactionsinordertopreventthefunctioningofmafiainSerbia,whichhadbeenthrivingundisturbedlyuntilnow.

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THE GENOCIDE AND THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMES IN SOUTH OF IRAQ

By Dr.Munther Al FadhalSummary of the speech at University of London – School of Oriental and African Studies SOAS

Genocide isaimingtokillpeoplebydifferentdevicesandit isconsideredasadangerous acts that threaten security and safety of society because it result inexterminationandpersecutionofhumantotallyorpartiallybecauseofthenatureoftheirnationality,theirraceortheirreligion.Genocideisnotapoliticalcrimesbutitisausuallydeliberatecrimeevenifit’scommittingbyapoliticalmotivation.GenocideisanInternationalCrime.HistoricaldevelopmentthiscrimegoesbacktotimeofBabylonanditwascom-mitted in the First World War by Germans who used the poisonous gasses inFranceandduringtheSecondWorldWartooin1939-1945.KurdsinsideKurdis-tanandotherplacesofIraqhasalsosufferedfromthiscrimeandwhattheFailyKurdshasbeenexposedtoemigration,disappearingandexecutionoutofjudici-arygirdle.ThesamecrimeshavebeencommittedagainstShiaa incentralandsouthIraqbeforeandafteruprising1991.GenocidecommittedbytheIraqiregimewasalwayscomprehensiveandagainstall Iraqi people regardless of ethnical, religious or cultural considerations. Forinstant,theAssyrianswhoaretheindigenouspeopleofIraqandatiny&peace-fulnationalandChristianminorityhavebeensubjectedtoethnicalandreligiouscleansingeventheywerenotforminganythreateningordangeroustotheexistingregime.BecauseofGenocideisanawfulcrimeandaffectinghumanrights,thereforehasFNissuedtowinternationalagreementsandthatwasresultedinholdingassemblyinRomtoestablishanInternationalcourtin1988andthatcametolightin11/4-2002,wheretheagreementwasdepositedtoFNandthejudgeswouldresearchindifferentInternationalcrimesamongtheseisgenocidecrime.DenominationalrepressionpolicyisanotherkindofgenocidethattheIraqire-gimehas committed in central and south Iraq against citizens.DiscriminationandhumiliationofShiaathroughseriesofarticlesthatwaspublishedinregimenewspaperfollowingtheuprisinginApril1991wasapartofthiscrimeandespe-ciallywhentheregimehasdoubtedabouttheidentityofMarshlandsresidentsasArabsandasIraqisandbythattheregimegotexcusestobombingtheircitiesbydifferentweaponsandestablishing(Saddamrivers).NodoubtthesepeoplelivinginareawheretheoldestcivilizationhistoricallybeganandwheretheoldlawasSumerian,Babylonlawborn.

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Violationofhumanrightsthatiscommittingbydictatorsisnolongeraninteriormatter,where the International community interfering isnotpossible to ceaserepressionofthecivilorremainsasasightseerforallkindsofgenocidescrimesintheworld.ButrespectinghumanrighthasshowntobematterforInternationalcommunityandmustnotbelimitedaslongasthatsituationbecomeasourceforinsecurityand instabilityandthatwouldaffecting internationalpeacesituationespeciallywhentherepressionsiswithinthestateterror.InIraqhasviolationagainsthumanrightsbeensince1968veryseriouslyespe-ciallyconcerningtheKurds,Shiaa,TurkmenandAssyrians.ThesituationbecameworsewhenthewarbetweenIraqandIranbrokeout,chemicalweaponswasusedin1988againsttheKurdsandduringinvadingKuwaitin1990.DryingtheMarsh-lands,destructingenvironment,poisoningthewatersandbumpingthecitiesinSouthhasbeenaclearinfractingtolegislations,internationalcommitmentsandnotleastallreligions.Inthisconnectiontheresearchisdivideopasfollows:· Restrictingconceptofgenocidecrime· Internationalcrimesagainsthuman-beinginSouthIraq1. Restrictingconceptofgenocidecrime

Conventionofforbiddingcommittinggenocidein1946wasaboutthatextermi-nationmeanswhippingouthumanbeingfortheirrace,religiononpurposeandexpressionof genocidebecameassociatedwithNazismbecauseofmassacringpeoplefortheirraceandreligionandthatwasconsideredascrimeagainsthuman-ityeventhoughtthatwasnotaninfractionstolawofthoseregimes.1. Killingmembersofgroups2. Physicalandmentaltorturingofthemembersofgroups3. Forcingthegrouptotallyorpartlytoacriticalmaterialisticlifesituation4. Enforcingfacilitiesthatpreventbirthinthegroup5. Removingthechildrenofthegrouptoothergroup

All these Internationalcrimesdonot fallby timeandapunishableby the lawwhetherithasbeencarriedoutorworkforatcarryitout.Everyonewhocom-mittedthiskindofcrimeisresponsibleforthatapartfromhispositionsuchasconstitutionalresponsibleorordinarypublicstaff.

Killingthegroupshappensindifferentwaysandbydifferentfacilitiesasfollowing:· Bodilygenocideandtheethnicalcleansing: it isaboutkillingthepeopleby

poisongas,executionandburiesthepeoplealive,andthatwhathappenedinIraqin1991andlateronagainsttheShaiinhabitantsinSouthIraq.TheIraqiregimekilledinoneday2000oftheShaithroughaprocesscalled“cleaning

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ofprisons”.ThecrimeagainstSouthofIraqhavebeenveryhugeandthroughtheSatellitesthesecrimeswasfilmedandshowthedestructionofMarshlandsbyconstructionofdamsanddrainingtheMarshlands,whichcausedforciblemigrationof localpopulations.Thehumanrights,EuropeansParliament inyear2002,andthehumanrightscondemnedthecrimesanditwasdefiniteasInternationalcrimefollowingadeclarationfromAmbassadorDavidShiverinUSA.

· Biologicalgenocide:itisaboutsterilisingthemenandabortingthewomeninordertowipingouttheraceofthatgroup.

· Culturalgenocide:itisaboutforbiddinganationtoconversewithownnativelanguageandthathashappenedtotheKurdinIraqiKurdistanandInTurkeyagainst theKurds.Thoughthiscrimehasresult inassimilationandruiningof that groups existence, still the “The international family ”hasnot givenenoughattentionstothiscrime.Thereasonsforthiscrimecouldbepointedoutasfollows:- Religiousreason:Oneoftheworsecrimesinourtimehasbeencrimesof

IraqiregimeagainsttheSouthIraqsuchaspoisingthewater,dryingtheMarshlands,bumpingtheircityandterrorisingtheirpeopleespeciallythereligious,whodisappearedandkilled.

- Politicalandsocialreasons:itisboutassimilationandarabisationofnon-Arabpeople inIraqas ithasbeencarriedoutbyaseriesofresolutionsagainst the Kurd generally and Faily Kurd, who has been offer for thiscrime because of their nationality and as follower of Shiia belief. It isneedless to mention in details about the Ba’ath Arabization tyrannicalpolicyagainstsmallminorityi.e.theAssyrianswhowerenotallowedtomentiontheirethnicityduringtheofficialIraqicensusof1977and1987andtheywereforcedtorefertothemselvesasArab,sincetherearealotofhumanrightsorganizationsreportsdealtwiththismatter.

PART TWO

InternationalcrimesagainstthehumanityinSouthIraq1. IntroductionBeforereportingtheInternationalcrimesinSouthIraq,itisnecessarytoclarify-ingthethreepartsofitasfollowing:1. WarCrimes2. Waragainstpeace3. CrimesagainstHumanity

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The International crime: It is a high crime and committed on purpose whichmeanscriminalintentexists.ThereforetheInternationalcrimesisconsideredtobeInfamousCrimethattrembletheInternationalsecurityandpeacenotjustthatcountrybut thewhole Internationalcommunityand thepunishmenthas tobecarriedoutbytheInternationalcommunity.

2. TheInternationalcrimeagainsthumanity1. Legitimacy background: It is about the law clause that condemn the event

throughInternationalconventionsasconventionsofforbiddinggenocidethatexterminatehuman likewhat the Iraqi regimedoneagainstShiaa inSouthIraq,wherethousandsofpeopleburiedaliveduringtheuprising1991andinKurdistanconcerningAnfalandHalabjha.

2. Materialisticbackground:it isaboutactsorthatconstituteanInternationalcrime like demolishing environment, disappearing of people and usingpeopleforbiologicalandchemicalexperimentation.Almost300.000peopleabandonedthereplacesandmorethan100.000liveinIranasrefugeebecauseofthedisasterthathittheenvironmentlikewaterpoisoningandextinctionofmajorpartofbirdsandfishesofthatarea.

3. Mentallybackground:becauseoftheInternationalcrimecommitsonpurposeandthreatenthepeaceintheworldthereforethecrimeisconsideredtobe.

3. WarcrimeinsouthofIraq

Althoughwarisnotresultinanythingbuthugeviolationsofhumanrights,there-fore the international conventions which concerning the rules of war must betakenintoconsiderationasfollowing:1. Den-Haugconventionin1899–19072. Rulesinforbiddingusing3. Genevaprotocolfor1925inforbiddingusingpoisongasandbiologic

TheinternationalSecurityCouncilcondemnedtheIraqiregimeforusingchemi-calweapons in1988against theKurds inaccordance to introduced resolutionin26-8-1988.Usingthechemicalweapons,dryingandpoisonmarchlandscom-mittedagainsttheinhabitantsinSouthIraqbesidesstoringchemicalweaponsinmortuaryofNejafandKerbala.

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4. ExampleoftheinternationalwarcrimeinIraq1. Genocide,thecrimeofgenocidecommittedagainstKurdinKurdistanandin

otherpartofthecountrylikeagainsttheemigrationsofthefailyKurd,whobecomeofferbecauseoftheirbeliefinShiaa.

2. GenocidethehumanitybyusingchemicalweaponsagainsttheKurdin1988andshaiain1991.

3. Bumping the civil target against the Kurdish villages, inhabitants of Najef,Kerbala,Basara,semaowandDewaniaandagainstIran.

4. Buryingthepeoplealive.ThousandshundredsoftheKurdinIraqiKurdistanandofshaainSouthwereburiedalive.Thiscrimeisawarcrimeanddonotfallbytimeandtheinternationalcriminalcannotclaimanypoliticianexcusetocommitthatcrimeandmustnotbegivenasylum.

5. Execution crime of the captives: killing, executing or burying the captivesaliveisaninternationalcrimeandmusttheaccuserbeprosecutedasawarcriminal.

6. Torturingthecaptivesandinterrogatethembyforceiswarcrime.7. Violationagainstwoman:thiscrimeascommittedinKurdistanandinKuwait

duringtheoccupation.8. Minesimplantationagainsthuman:TheIraqiregimehasimplantedmorethan

10.MillionsminesagainstpeopleinKurdistan.AccordingtorulesofInternationallawthepeoplewhocommitanInternationalcrimecannotbegrantedpoliticalorhumanistasylumandmustbepunishedbylawfortheircrimethatcannotbefallenbecauseoftime.FallenacrimebecauseoftimeisnotconsideredinsituationofBenoshe,formerpresidentofChileandSlobedanMelosafechofSerbia.AmnestyInternationalinthisconnectionhastakeninitiativetotallyingrulesofInternationalLawaccordingtoagreementofGenevain1949-8-12,agreementofDen-Haugin1899andprotocolGenevain1925.Toprotectthehuman.AmnestyInternationalhasalsoprovidedmanyrulestoprotecthumaninthewarsituationsuchasforbiddingkillingthecivilpeopleandtheinjuredcaptive,totreatthein-juredpeopleandthesick,toinsurethepeopleafaircourt,andnopartinthewarhastochoosetheweaponorthemannerofthewar.ButunfortunatelytheIraqiregimedidnottakeanyoftheserulesinconsiderationinthewarwithIranandinsuppressingtheuprisinginKurdistanandSouthIraqorinKuwait.

5. Crimesagainstpeace

Thepeopleattimeofpeacehavemanyrightsthatshouldnotgetviolatedsuchascivilrights,politicalrights,economicalrights,andsocialandculturalrights.

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ThereforeinawarsituationmusttheserightsbetakeninconsiderationandifnotthentheInternationalcrimeisinforcesuchasoffensiveagainstothercountryasthecaseofKuwaitin1990,participatinginconspiracytoinvadinganothercoun-try,oraffiliatingothercountry’sterritorybyforce.

6.CrimesagainstHumanity

The crimes that against humanity has been considered by Vatican as crimesagainstGodandhuman.ThesecrimeswerespecifiedbyNurembergcourtandconsideredasInternationalcrimesandmustbepunishable.AbigpartofthesescrimeshasbeencommittedbySaddamregimesuchaskillingandwhippingoutthecivil inKurdistan-Kirkuksuchasdestroying4500villages.In1976-77over200AssyrianancestralvillagesinnorthernIraqwererazedbytheIraqiregime.Scoresofchurcheswerealsodestroyed.Nearlyeveryvillagehadachurchand/ormonasteryandsomeoftheancientchurcheswereasmuchas1400yearsoldandtotallywerelevelledwiththegroundwithoutanyconsiderationtoitshistoricalaccount.

7.CrimesagainstSouthIraqiShia

...suchas forcinghundreds thousandsof themto leave Iraq to Iranbecauseoftheirbelieve,torturingandkillingtheirreligiousleadershipinallholycityofIraqsuchasNejaf,Kerbal.

8.Recommendationandconclusion· Becauseof the brutality of repression of human rights in Iraq, it has been

necessarytocarryoutfollows:· Activatingandrevisingresolution688inordertobeintroducedaccordingto

chaptersevenofthecompactforsetupteamsofresearchingtoinvestigatethesituationofhumanrightsinIraq.

· EstablishinganespecialcourtforInternationalcrimestocalltoaccountthathasbeenresponsibleforcommittingtheInternationalcrimesagainsttheShiaandKurds.

· Pay compensation to victims who life got ruined because of Internationalcrimesoffencesandcancelaparticularcourt.

· Cancelling theexecutionpunishment fromall Iraq lawsand it isnecessaryto International community to carry out retribution against regimes whichabusinghumanrights.

· Establishing high constitution court to watch constitution of the law and

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obligatingthestateandallingovernor.· ActivatingoftheUN´sroletohelpIraqipeople.· FreezingallstolenbalancesfromtheIraqstate.· TheUNhastoworkforpayingapartofthereturnoilascompensationto

Iraqipeople,whohasbecomerefugebeforeandaftertheGulfwar.· EstablishingahighcommitteeofIraqiexpertsinlawinordertoinvestigatethe

crimesthatcommittedagainstIraqipeopleandpointingoutthecompensationtopaythosepeople.

· CarryingoutthroughmediatotheworldallcrimesagainstIraqipeopleandfocusing on International community role to stop the continued ethnicalcleansingofIraqipeople.

· RehabilitationoftheenvironmentinSouthIraqandworkforrenovatingalldamaging in theMarshlandsby removingalldamsandhelp the refugee toreturntotheirplaceinthoseareas.

Nowwearewaitingtheresult:BringingIraqiwarcriminalstojustice!

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana has in line with current events in Iraq constructed an analysis of the situa-tion. Here only the most interesting parts of a more extensive study are highlighted:

AMERICAN STRATEGY IN THE WAR FOR THE LIBERATION OF IRAQSIMULTANEOUSLY REACHING SIX GOALS WITH AN ASSISTANCE OF SIX FACTORS

36hoursafterthebeginningoftheWarfortheliberationofIraq,whichisapoliti-calnameforthemilitaryoperations,calledSHOCKANDFEAR,wecanclearlystatethattheAmericanforcessurprisedtheIraqiforceswithaninvasionofthe3rdandthe7thcavalrydivisionthroughthedesert.ThenamedforcesarebynowalreadyhalfwaytoBaghdadinordertoavoiddirectconfrontationswiththeIraqiarmylocatedatthetraditionallypositioneddefenselines.TheAmericanstrategyofavoidingtheIraqiforcesisextremelyimportantfortheadvancetowardsBaghdad.WiththistheywouldavoidmassivesurrenderingoftheIraqisoldiersandcivilians,whichwouldpresentlogisticdifficultiestotheadvanc-ingforces(identification,welfare,lodginginprisons).ThementioneddifficultieswillinthefutureundoubtedlyinfluencefurtherquickadvancetowardsBaghdad,whichisthemaingoaloftheoperation.

Americanstrategyisbasedonsixfactorstoachievesixstrategicgoals:

Thefirstfactoristhe‘beheading’ofSaddamHusseinandhisclosestassociates,whichisthebasicandthemostimportanttask.TheAllieswillinthecourseoftheoperationfiremissilesatallthesuspiciouslocationswhereSaddammightbesituated.Simultaneouslyotherspecialplannedoperationswillbecarriedout.ThesecondfactoristakingovertwothirdsofCentralandSouthernIraqin72hours.TheNorthernIraqisinanycaseundertheAmericancontrolonthebasisoftheagreementbetweentheKurdsandtheUSA,concludedinAnkaraonMarch19th2003,withwhichtheKurdishunitscameundertheAmericancommand.AllthiswouldsmooththeprogressoftheoperationtosurroundBaghdadfromallsides,wherethereisapossibilityofarevoltwithinthecityitselforastatecoupwithinthepoliticalelite.The third factor, which is the bombardment of military facilities, will stronglydamagemeagermissilecapacitiesofthearmedforcesoftheIraqiregime.Thefourthfactoristhesimultaneousperformanceofthreeoperations.Thefirstoneisstrongbombardment,followedbygroundtroopsandspecialoperationsof

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themarinesinthehinterland.Thisrepresentsanewtacticalapproach,asopposedtotheliberationofKuwaitoperations,whenthegapbetweenairandgroundat-tackaccountedfor39days.Thefifthfactor:TheIraqileadershipisnotawareenough,orisneglectingthefact,that theAmericansposses somenewkindsofweaponrywithgreatdemolitionforce,whichwillbeusedforthefirsttime.Thesixthfactor:TheAlliesestimatetheywillbefightingonly80.000Iraqisol-diers,sincetheother350.000thatarewithintheregularIraqiarmyandarenotloyaltotheregime,mightsurrenderatthefirstopportunity.This,though,ismademoredifficultduetothefactthateveryarmyunitincludesfiringsquadcomposedofmembersofIraqimilitaryintelligenceservices.SaddamHusseinfollowstwoincorrectdefensetheses.Firstofall,theuseofthechemicalweaponswoulddamagehisunitsmorethanthealliedones,sincethesearequitewellprotected.ThesecondmistakeisthatSaddamisplayingthecard‘Baghdad – Stalingrad’. In each case, Baghdad cannot become Stalingrad thatwasresistingtheNazisduringWWII.InBaghdadtherearemorethan2millionoppressedShiites thatwould,similar toApril1991,rebelagainst theregimeofSaddamatthefirstgivenopportunity.According to the opinion of military analysts of the International InstituteIFIMES, the Iraqi regime will crumble within a week after the arrival of theAmericantroopsintothesuburbsofBaghdad,whatmightaccordingtotheexpec-tations,occuralreadywithinnext20hours.Simultaneously,thenorthernfrontwouldbeactivated,Americanmarinesandapartofthe101stair-strikedivisionwouldtogetherwiththeKurdishtroopsenterKirkukandtakecontroloftheoilfields.The liberationofMosul, thesecond largestcity inIraq,dependsonthearrivaloftheTurkishunitsas logisticalsupportundertheAmericancommand(inordertoavoidunnecessaryincidentswiththeKurdishunitsinthenorthofIraq).According to the opinion of political analysts of the International InstituteIFIMESthiswarisoneofthemostcomplicatedanddemandinginthehistoryofmankindduetothefactthattheyaresimultaneouslytryingtoachievesixgoalsintheshortestperiodoftimeandwithinonesingleoperation.

Goals:

1. Neutralizationof theIraqiarmyandapartof theRepublicanguardwithinfirstdaysofthewar.

2. TodefeattheIraqiarmywithoutdestroyingitinordertouseitinthepost-warrebuildingofthecountry.

3. To reach Baghdad within 72 hours, surround it and wait for the further

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developmentsinthecity.4. To destroy as quickly as possible the supporting pillars of the regime (the

Republicanguard,Intelligenceservices,etc.).5. Topreventtheprocessofmass-revengeofthepeopleonthemembersofthe

regime,aprocessthatcanleadtoacivilwar.6. TopreservetheunityoftheIraqiterritoryandtopreventinterferenceofthe

neighbors,meaningespeciallyTurkeyandIran.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana has been regularly analyzing the events in Iraq and those connected to it, especially now with the ongoing Iraqi crisis. Here only the most interesting parts of a more extensive study are highlighted:

WITH THE OPERATION TO LIBERATE IRAQ, SADAM HUSSEIN’S MORTAL ENEMIES REMAIN NEUTRAL WILL RUSSIA FILL THE VOID?

InthesouthofIraq,specificallyonthesouthernbattlegroundonthelineBasra-Nasiriya-Najaf,theAmericansareexperiencingunpredictabledifficulties.TheIn-ternationalInstituteIFIMESisanalyzingthecausesforthecurrentsituationthatcanprolongthedurationoftheoperations,evenfailureinthisphase.FromSeptember7thtill22nd2002fourretiredEgyptiangeneralshadoninvitationoftheIraqigovernmentvisitedIraqinordertoconsulttheIraqigovernmentontheirdefenseplanbeforealreadythenprobableAmericanattackonthecountry.Thegeneralshaveonthebasisofgeographic,armamentandnationalpresump-tionsthat influencedthedefenseplans,reexaminedthe importantpointsof theIraqistrategy.ThegeneralswereconvincedthattheIraqiKurdistanhasbeeninfactundertheAmericancontrolsince1991.ThetwoimportantcitiesintheNorthwithrichoildepositsare locatedtoocloselytotheborderlinewiththeKurdishtroops.Kirkukisremoved30kmandMosul40kmfromtheadministrativeborderwithKurdistanandtheyarethereforeinmilitarysenseinfactlost.InthiscasetheIraqiswouldnothaveanygreatpossibilitytodefendthemselvesagainstanattackfromnorthandthereforethefirstdefenselinesofBaghdadhadbeensetupnexttoHamrinsome100kmfromthecapital,whichsimultaneouslyrepresenttheKurd-ishethnicalborder.ThegeneralsweredrawingtheirconclusionsfromthefactthatTurkeywillimme-diatelyopenitsairspaceandallowunhinderedarrivaloftheAmericantroopstotheNorth.ButtheTurkshavenotcompliedwiththeAmericandemandsandthenorthernfronthasforthefirstdaysofwarremainedactuallyinactivated.InconnectiontotheIraqisouththegeneralsadvisedSaddamHusseintotryandruninthesouthofthecountryamediacampaigninhisownfavor,beingawareofthefact,thattheAmericanshavealreadyin1991lefttheShiitepopulationintheSouthoftheCountrytothemercyofSaddamHussein.ThelatterhaswithmillionsofdollarsboughttheloyaltyoftheShiitetribesthatatthemomentshownosup-portforthemilitaryaction.TheAmericanshadtochangetheirstrategyinthelastmomentandthe4thdivi-sionwith its 30 shipsofmilitary equipmentwaiting for theTurkish consent in

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Mediterranean,had tobe redirected towards theSuezCanal.Thus thedivisionwillbeloosing,inbestcase,aweekofcombatactivity:TheAmericanssimultane-ouslyhadtorelocatepartofthemarinesandofthe101stair-borndivisiontotheNorth,sotheplanshadtobechangedinthefirstdaysoftheoperation.WiththistheyhavequiteweakenedtheircapabilitiesinthesouthernpartofthefrontnexttoBasra,whichhadanegativepsychologicalinfluenceontheunitsinthissectorwaitingforthesimultaneousopeningofthenorthernfront.Herebythefirstreasonforthe(un)successoftheAmericaneliteunitsofmarinesandofthe3rdandthe7thdivisionatUm-Qasr,Basra,NasiriyaandNajafisstated.ThesecondreasonforthementionedunsuccessescanbeprobablyfoundwiththedeadlysilenceoftheShiitepopulationoftheSouthernIraq,meaning10millionpeople,onwhichtheAmericanplannersseriouslycounted.ThewerecountingontheShiiteuprisingthatwouldwiththeadvanceoftheAmericantroopsbecomemortalenemiesofSaddamHussein’sregime.ThiswouldbesimilartoMarch3rd1991,whenonthesignfromAmericanpresidentGeorgeBushSen.theystartedamagnificentpopularuprisingthathasafterwardsspreadto14Iraqiprovinces(outof18).Theinsurgents,leadbytheSupremeCounciloftheIslamicRevolutioninIraq(SCIRI),remainedinpowerfor17days.PerhapsthegreatestAmericanmistakeafterthevictoryintheGulfWarwasthattheysuccumbedtofearthatapro-IranianShiitegovernmentwouldbeestablishedinBaghdad,inotherwords:theconspiracyoftherulersoftheGulf(excepttheKuwaiti sovereign).TheAmericansallowedSaddamHussein tousehelicoptersandsimultaneouslywithoutaUNSecurityCouncil resolutionestablishedaNoFlyzonefortheIraqiplanesabovethe36thandunderthe32ndparallelfortheprotectionofKurdsandtheShiites.Followingthis,theworldpublicwasshockedandappalledatthebrutalreprisaloftheRepublicanguardagainsttheShiitesouth.Ithasbeenestimatedthatsome110.000peoplewerekilled.Throughthe1990-tiestheShiiteoppositionhasbeenveryskepticalandevenop-posed toAmerican involvement in the topplingofSaddamHussein.Theirviewwasthattheregimeshouldbebroughtdownfromwithinandnotfromoutside.ThisopinionwaschangedonlyonDecember9th2002on theIraqioppositionconferenceinLondon,whentheAmericanplansforthefutureofIraqwereap-proved.ThecreditforthisgoestotheKurdishleadersBarzaniandTalabaniandtothesecretUSpressuresontheIraniangovernment,wheretheseatofSCIRIislocated.DespiteapparentcooperationtheyremainedskepticaltowardstheAmeri-canplans,asforinstance,toinstallanAmericangeneralasamilitaryleaderofthecountryafterthefallofSaddam.TheUSAhasinthemeantimechangeditspositionandhasexpressedreadinesstotransferthepoweraftertheliberationtotheIraqis.TheAmericanshavenotconcededtothecooperationofSCIRIinthemilitaryoperationstoliberateIraq.

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TheShiitesouthisveryinterestinginitspoliticalopinions,themostinterestingfactbeingthatthefirstcommunistpartyintheArabworldatallwasfoundedinthecityofNasiriyainIraqintheyear1936.ItsfounderFahdwasarepresentativeofpoorandoppressedShiites,whoplayednoroleinthestatesincetheestablishmentoftheKingdomofIraqin1921thatwasundercontroloftheSunniteArabs.Aftertherevolutionin1958andtheestablishmentoftheIraqirepublic,thepresi-dent generalAdbulkarimKasim Iwas apro-communistpatriot from theShiitesouthtowhichhereturnedtherights,theywereentitledtoundertheconstitution.ThestatecoupoftheBaasPartyonFebruary8th1963andthemurderofKasimstoppedthisprocessuntil1972whenthevice-presidentatthattime,SaddamHus-sein,nationalizedtheoilandthecountryhadtoface,duetothesanctionsofthewesternoilcorporations,aharshcrisis.SaddamHusseinfoundedthePopularPro-gressiveFrontwiththeCommunistPartyandevenpresenteditwithsomeministe-rialportfolios.InthesameyearanagreementoffriendshipandcooperationwassignedwiththeSovietUnionandthusIraqfellintotheRussianhands(whereithaswithslightcoolingoftherelationshipremaineduptothisday).Russia,whichhasexcellentrelationswithIranandhasdespiteAmericanopposi-tionconstructedanuclearreactorinBushehrandisplanningtoconstructanothersixinthefuture,hasanopendoortoinfluencetheSCIRIandisprobablyalreadythinkingoffillingthevoidintheSouthofIraq,especiallynow,whentheAmeri-canshavefoundthemselvesingreatcrisisonthisfront.Russiahasimmenseinterestsinthesouthofthecountry,sinceRussianoilcorpo-rations(Lukoil,Transneft,etc.)havemulti-billioncontractsfortheoildepositsatBasra.Inaddition,SCIRIisenjoyingabsolutesupportintheSouthofIraq,anditsmilitarycouncil-FailakBadr–TheBadrCorpus,iscontrolling10.000fighterssituatedalongsidetheborderwithIranthathavesince1991uptothisdaycon-ductedaseriousofguerillaactions.TheRussianvulturesarewithasupportofthepowerfuloillobbypressuringthepresidentPutintosupportthestrategicinterestsofRussiainIraqandtoimmedi-atelyrealizeseveralconfidentialplansofcooperationwiththeBadrCorpus.There-foretheyproposeimmediateentryoftheseunitsintotheIraqiterritory,towhichAmericans strongly oppose, since this would repeat the scenario from Kosovo,whentheRussianunitsinSFORinBosniaandHerzegovinain1999enteredthePrishtinaairportbeforethearrivaloftheAmericans.ProbablysuchaplanwouldbeespeciallylikedbySaddamHusseininthesecriticalmoments,sincehewouldchoosetheRussianunitswithBadrCorpusasalesserevilthatthepresentone.TheShiiteswouldthusgaintheirautonomy,similartotheKurdishoneintheNorth.ThedifferencewouldbeinthefactthattheguardiansofthisautonomywouldbetheRussians,asopposedtotheKurdishone,whichissupportedbytheAmericans.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na has in light of the military operation ‘Iraqi Freedom’ run by the USA and her Al-lies been analyzing diplomatic and military (un)successes of the operation. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:

IS USA LOOSING THE WAR – MILITARILY AND POLITICALLY?

Theoperation‘IraqiFreedom’,plannedformorethanayearhasrunintotroubles.Alreadyfromthebeginningitself, themilitaryalliesencounteredfierceresistance,evenandespeciallyintheShiitesouththattraditionallyhatestheregimeofSaddamHussein.TheAlliedforcesarewiththeiradvanceexperiencingonlypartialsuccessesin thepopulatedareas fromUmQasr,Basra,Faw,Nasiriyaupto thehollyShiitecityofNajaf.Thefastestadvanceoccurredinthedesert,awayfromurbancentersandmilitarystrongholdsoftheIraqiarmy.Para-militarymilitias,calledtheFedayin,inflictedharshblowstotheAlliedtroops,afactthatpresentedashocktothemilitaryplannersofthisoperation.Inanycase, theplanofgeneralTommyFrankswent througha thoroughchange.ThesechangeshaveatacticalpurposewithagoaltowinthewarandmarchintoBaghdad.USAcanwinthewarinthemilitarysense,butdespitethisvictory,thewarcanbelostinapoliticalsense,sothereforeradicalchangesofpolitical,diplomaticandmediaplanoftheoperationinwholeareneeded.OnthepoliticalplaneUSfounditselfinatroublesomepositionduetotheunilateralactionthatwasfromitsbeginningsquestionableintheeyesofthewholeworld,in-cludingthethreepermanentmembersoftheSecurityCouncil–France,RussiaandChina.SaddamHusseinhasusedandabusedwellthelackofunityintheinternation-alcommunityandhasintheeyesoftheinternationalpublicbecomeastatesmande-fendinghiscountryfromanaggression.IntheeyesoftheIslamicworldhebecameamartyr,whoisdefendingthewholeIslamicworldagainsttheworstenemyofIslam.SaddamHusseinlookedforsupportintheseventhchapteroftheUNOFoundingDocument,whiletheUSAhadonlymoralbackinginbeingtheonly(remaining)su-perpowerhelpingtheIraqipeopleandtryingtoprotectthewholeworldfromadicta-tor,thathas(already)usedandisreadytouseagaintheweaponsofmass-destructionnotonlyagainsthisownpeople,butanywheretheworld.ThegreatestfiascointhebeginningoftheAmericanoperationisintheactthat10millionShiitesinthesouthofIraqremainedinbestcasepassiveandinmostcaseshostiletowardstheirarrival.Theyhaven’twelcomedtheliberatorswithflowers,astheAlliedexpected,buthaveinsteadwiththeirguerillaattacks,becomeanightmareforsoldiersontheoutskirtsoftownsandvillagesintowhichtheyhaven’tevenentered.

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ThereactionoftheShiiteswasexpectedfortworeasons:· First,duetotheAmericansupportforthepopularuprisingagainsttheregime

ofSaddamHusseinin1991inthesouthofIraq,followedbyalaterconsentgiventoSaddamHusseintousehelicopterstoquellthesamepopularuprisingthat has spread all over the country. This American behavior disappointedtheShiites,whofeltcheatedandbetrayedandwhoapparentlydidnotwishtorepeatthesamemistaketwice.

· Second, due to the political stance of the Shiite political leaders (SCIRI,Aldawa,etc.),whichareunderpoliticalinfluenceofTeheranandDamascusandhavepreferred tochooseneutrality rather thanparticipation inaction,wheretheoutcomeisnotknown,andwhichareinbestcaseopposedtoanappointmentofanAmericangeneralinplaceofSaddamHussein.

TheAmericanforcesarefornowadvancingthroughtheShiitearea,whereneitherSaddamHusseinnorAmericansareliked.AquestionisrisingonthenatureofAmericanadvancethroughtheSunnipartofIraqthathasbeentraditionallysup-portiveofSaddamHusseinandisafraidtoloosegreatprivileges,gainedbytheIraqiconstitutionfrom1921,whenthestatewasfounded.Certainly,theresistanceintheSunnitewesternIraqwillbeevenmorefierceonthelineHaditha–Rumadi–Falujja–BaghdadandintheEastonthelineBaquba–Khalis–Baghdad,butalsoonthenorthernlineMosul–Bejji–Tikreet–Baghdad.Abreakdownofthepoliticalpartofthe‘IraqiFreedom’operationoccurredasanoutcomeofthefactthattheUSAhadbeeninpreviousdecadecommunicatingwiththeIraqipeoplethroughamediationofanoppositionalfractionTheIraqiNationalCongressINC,whichhadnopoliticalstrongholdontheground.TheUScooperationwiththeoppositionwasconstantlyincrisis.USAwasrepeatedlyaccus-ingthemofabusingtheallocatedresources(thesebeingtenmilliondollarsinsteadofapromisedonehundredmillions,whichwereallocatedaccordingtotheIraqiLiberationLaw,approvedbytheCongressin1998).Othervisibleandinfluentialmembersof theoppositionwere far awayandmarginalized.Another reason forthepoliticalunsuccessoftheUSAcanbelocatedintheinfluenceoftheneighbor-ingcountriesonparticularoppositional fractions(Iran,Syria,Turkey,andSaudiArabia).Thisinterferencewiththeirinterioraffairsisbestshownbytheevents,astheyoccurred,forinstance,in1996withthebloodyintra-KurdishwarbetweentheKurdishDemocraticParty (KDP)and thePatrioticUnionofKurdistan(PUK).TurkeyandIraqsupportedKDP,whileIransupportedPUK.Today,TurkeysupportsPUKandisatpresentinamediawarwithKDP,whichiscontrollingapartoftheIraqiKurdistanatthesouthernborderofTurkey.USAisawareofthegravityofthesituationandthereforethesecretariesRumsfeldandPowelwarnedtheneighboringcountriesagainstanyinterferencewiththeIraqiaffairs.

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ThemilitaryoperationtotoppleSaddamHusseincouldincaseofatotalsuccessnotonlyinmilitary,butalsoinpoliticalsensebecomeaprecedentandamodelcasetocopewith later(similar)globalcases.Theoperationhasnosupport inmoderninternationallaw,butitmighthaveasupportintheclassicaltheoryoftheinternational lawdevelopment,derivingfromthe1648WestphaliaTreaty,1918VersaillesTreatyand1945SanFranciscoTreaty.USAurgentlyandassoonaspossiblehastoopenthecommunicationchannelswiththenationsoftheMiddleEastandexplaintheminasimplelanguagethepositiveandnoblegoalsofthisoperationthatwillcertainlyhaveapositiveinfluenceontheirfuture,aswell.TheInternationalInstituteIFIMESwarnsthatthemilitaryliberationofBaghdaddoesnotrepresentanendtothedestructionofSaddamHussein’sregime, it isonlyabeginningofapoliticalprocessthatmightbecomepainfultobothsides,IraqisandAmericans.ThecaseofSovietUnioninAfghanistancanrepeatitselfinIraq,butindifferentroles.Russia,FranceandIslamiccountrieswillsupportIraqimujahedsagainsttheAmericanaggressorswitharepetitionofeventsfromthe eighties, when they were recruiting suicide killers and fighters all over theIslamicworld.According to the opinion of IFIMES, USA urgently has to change its politicstowardsthespecificfractionswithintheIraqioppositionasapreconditionfortheestablishmentofadialoguewiththeIraqipeople.MostoftheIraqioppositionalgroupshavealmostnosupportamongthepeople,whiletheirpoliticalactivitiesarebeingconductedintheofficesofluxuryvillasinLondon,Dubai,Damascus,etc.TheAmericanambassadorwiththefreeIraqis,ZalmaiKhalilzad,hasalreadymadehisfirststepsinthedirectionofthesechanges.Alotofworkexpectshim,sinceitisuponhimtobuildfoundationsofanewrelationshipwiththeIraqipeo-pleandtorepairthedamagethatoccurredduringtheClintonadministrationanditsspecialenvoyFrankRichardony.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na has in light of recent events in Iraq and the beginning of the military and political part of Baghdad operation been analyzing the mentioned events. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:

STREET FIGHTING - A NIGHTMARE FOR THE ALLIES

WiththearrivalofadvanceunitsoftheAmericanMarinesandthe3rdInfantrydivisionuptotheoutskirtsofBaghdadandtakingovertheInternationalAirport‘Saddam’,thewarfortheliberationofIraqiscomingtoitsfinalphasethatwilldeterminethesuccessofthewholeoperation.In themilitary sense, theAlliesareexpecting in thecityofBaghdad itself theGoldenbrigadeoftheRepublicanguard,counting16.000besttrainedmen,show-ingutmostloyaltytoSaddamHussein,the20.000membersofthepara-militarymilitiasFedayeenandalso200.000membersoftheArmyofJerusalem,composedoftheBaathpartymembers.OntheoutskirtsofBaghdadthreedivisionsoftheRepublicanguardarelocated:Baghdad,NidaandHamurabi.Tothese,anotherthreedivisionscanbeadded.Adnanissituated60kmawayfromtheIraqicapitalintothedirectionofTeekrit.ThedivisionMedinacanbefoundbetweenKarbalaandNajaf,whilethedivisionNabukudnasserisstationednorthofBaghdad.ThelatterthreedivisionsarestillnotdirectlyinvolvedintofightingtheAlliedforces,sincetheyarenotlocatedinBaghdadandcannotbebesiegedinit.Apossibletac-ticsmaybethatthesethreementioneddivisionswillbeincludedintoapossiblesurroundingoftheAlliedforcesfrombehind.Inanycase,theIraqistrategyisbasedondrawingtheAlliedunitsintoafightinthecitycenteritself.Streetcombatisanightmareforeverycommander.Instreetfightstheciviliansbecomesubjectsandpotentialsoldiersfortheattackingforces,while technological superiority (air superiority, speed,mobilityand fire-power)isloosingitsmeaninginacitycombat.AmericanforceswillbetryingtoavoidstreetfightinginBaghdad.TheAmericansdo,duetoalackofofficialandpublicsupportoftheinternationalcommunity,notwishtousetheRussiantacticsanddemolishBaghdad,astheRussiansdemolishedGrozny.Thiswouldbeinopposi-tiontothegoalsofthe‘IraqiFreedom’operation.ThefearofAlliedforcesfromenteringBaghdad is evengreaterbecauseof the (un)successeson the route toBaghdadincitieslikeUmQaser,Basra,Nassirya,ShatraandNajaf.InaSeptember2002documentfromPentagon,called‘TheOperationalStrategyin Cities’, a Chinese strategist from the 6th century is quoted, saying that theworsttacticsisthesiegeofawalledcity.Inthepresenttime,theRepublicanguardrepresentsfortheAlliedforcesawall,protectingBaghdad.AccordingtotheopinionofJohnFeresfromtheUniversityofCalgaryinCanada,

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thereisnovictoryinstreetcombatwithoutdemolishingthewholestreet.DeanNovoviskyfromtheBrookingsInstituteinWashington,whostatesthatSaddamHussein is surroundedbyunits thatwill fight to theirendnotonlybecauseofSaddamHussein,butalsobecauseoftheirowndestinyandtheprivilegestheypos-ses,complementshisopinion.TheAmericanRandInstitutehasintheyear2000analyzedtheinfluenceofthedemographicfactoronfuturewarsintheworld.Halfoftheglobalpopulationresideswithincities.Terroristsandpoorlyarmedcoun-trieswishtopositiontheirmainbattlefieldsincitycenters,sincetechnologicalsuperioritybecomesinsuchcircumstancesunimportantandalldependsonthesoldiersthatareincitycenterslightlyarmedanddressedinuniformsorcivilianclothes.Thiscan incomparison to separating thecivilianpopulation from thesoldiers,causeevenmoretroubletotheAllies,butwouldservewellSaddamHus-seininthemediawar,sincehewillbeabletoaccusetheAlliesofkillinginnocentcivilians,despitethefactthatthesewouldbesoldiersincivilianclothes.InBaghdad,SaddamHusseinisreadytofighttotheend,whilesacrificinghim-selfandthefivemillioninhabitantswithhim-thiswouldtheSamsonscenariofromtheOldTestament,whenhetoredownthetempleonhimselfandonallthepresentwithin.ThisscenariocouldalreadybeplannedintheheadoftheIraqidictatorSaddamHusseininordertofighttotheend.ThedifferencebetweenhimandSamsonisthatSaddamdoesnotpossesanydivinepower,buthedoesposseschemicalweaponsthathewillprobablyuseinaprimitiveformtoconsolidatethebeingofinternationalpublicopiniononhisside,whileaccusingtheAlliesofus-ingthechemicalweapons.TheAmericanstrategysawtheentryintoBaghdadasthelastoptionfromthebe-ginning.Thestrategyitselfisbeingbasedonthe‘Shock&Awe’doctrine,writtenin1996byHarlanOlmanfromtheNationalDefenseUniversityinWashington.Thisstrategyisbasedonquickcontrolanddestructionofthemilitarymoraleoftheenemy.Twoweeksafter commencing theoperation, theAllies stillhaven’tdestroyedthemoraleoftheIraqiregulars,likeinBasraforinstance,andlet’snotevenconsidertheRepublicanguard,withwhichtruefightinghasn’tevenbegunyet.ThetaskoftheAlliedsoldierswillbeveryhardtofulfillandriskyinBaghdad,since themetropolis is surroundedbyartificialandnatural lakesalongside theriverTigris(theareaofBaghdadcovers100kmX80km).Metersandnotkil-ometersmeasureadvanceinBaghdad–pereachmeterbothsidescanlooseonesoldier.BaghdadispredominatelyaSunnicity(threemillionSunnitesandtwomillionShiitesthatwillremainneutralasdidtheShiitesintheSouthofIraq).ArrivaloftheAmericantroopstotheBaghdadInternationalAirport‘Saddam’,removed20kmfromthecenterof thecity is,according to theopinionof theInternationalInstituteIFIMES,abeginningofthepoliticalpartoftheoperationIraqiFreedom.BaghdadwillbesurroundedandtheIraqileadershipwillbeiso-

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latedfromtherestofthecountryandthemilitaryunitsinotherpartsofIraq.TheairportwillserveastheseatofAlliedCommandandasatemporarycapitalofIraq.Fromtheairportthefuturecivil,diplomaticandhumanitarianstructureswill start tooperate.Arrivalof the future temporaryadministratorof Iraq, theretiredAmericangeneralJayGarner,isexpectedinacompanyofseveralopposi-tionleaders,nowsituatedinKuwait.Therestoftheopposition;theIraqiNationalCongress(INC), theSupremeShiiteCouncilof theIslamicRevolutioninIraq(SCIRI)andtheWifaqmovement,arealllocatedintheIraqiKurdistanalongsidetheKurdishleadersBaryaniandTalabaniandtheAmericanambassadortoFreeIraqisZalmaiKhalilzada.IraqiexpertsthatarenowresidinginUSAandaremem-bersofnumerouscommissions,whichhaveputtogetherprojectsonthefutureofIraqincooperationwith‘TheFutureofIraq’DepartmentoftheUSAdministra-tion,arealsoexpectedtoarrive.FromthetemporarycapitaltheAlliedforceswilldrawtogetherfightersfromtheopposition(Shiites,SunnitesandKurds),whichwillleadthementionedmilitaryoperations forcontrolover the strategicpoints (powerplants,hospitals,water-works,governmentbuildings...)inBaghdad,supportedbyAlliedforces.Simulta-neously,theywillcontinuewiththeactivitiestonegotiatethetermsofsurrenderforBaghdadwiththepresenttopleadershipofIraq.ThesurrenderofthecitytotheIraqioppositional forces isofcrucial importanceforseveralreasons.First,duetothecivilianpopulationthatisskepticaltowardstheAlliedforces.Second,theinternationalcommunity,andespeciallytheIslamicworld,willreactdiffer-entlytothetakeoverofthecitybytheIraqioppositionthenbywhatwouldseemasaChristianoccupationofanancientcity,onceacenterofIslamiccivilizationunderthedynastyofAbbasids,themaincenteroftheIslamicworld.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na has been analyzing the latest situation in Iraq with an emphasis on Rebuilding Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:

WHO IS GOING TO REBUILD IRAQ: COALITION OR UNITED NATIONS?

BeforetheinterventioninIraqthereweredisagreementsintheSecurityCounciloftheUnitedNationsamongtheUnitedStatesandGreatBritainononesideandtheopponentsofthemilitaryinterventionontheotherside-Germany,FranceandRussiathatwereseriouslyplanningtousetherightofvetoagainstanyreso-lution thatwill allow theuseof forceagainst the regime inBaghdad.TheUNSecurityCouncilhasafterdaysofdiscussionsshownitselfasanorganthatcannotadaptitselftotheneedsoftimeandhasbecomeaprisonerofpoliticaldemagogy,derivingprimarilyfromenormouseconomicinterestsoftheopposingcountries.The opposing countries have softened their position just before the fall of theIraqiregime.TheRussianpresidentPutinstatedthatthebreakdownofUSAdoesnotrepresentaneconomicorpoliticalinterestofRussia.TheFrenchpresidentChiracandtheGermanchancellorSchroederhavewelcomedthefallofthedicta-torSaddamHusseinandhavealsoexpressedtheirwishestotheIraqipeopletodecideupontheirfuturebythemselvesandtochooseanewpoliticalleadership.The French and the Russian concerns originate from their large and yearlongeconomicinterestsinIraq.FranceinvestedintotheMajnoon(withanestimatedreserveof26billionbarrelsofoil)andWestQurnooildeposits(withareserveof15billionbarrelsofoil).TheRussiancompaniesLukoilandTransneftrepresentthelargestinvestorsintheIraqioil,especiallyintoBaihasannexttoKirkuk,along-sideseveralsmallerinvestmentsinnorthRumailanexttoBasra.After the fall of the Iraqi regime tensions and disagreements appeared amongthemembersoftheCoalitionthathastoppledtheIraqiregimeandtheopposingcampintheSecurityCouncil–particularlyRussia,FranceandGermany.ThesecountrieswishfortheUNOrganizationtohaveadeterminingroleinthepost-warreconstructionofIraq.TherepresentativesoftheAmericanAdministration,State Secretary Colin Powell and National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice,haveclearlystatedthattheyhavenodesirefortheUnitedNationstohavealead-ingroleinthepost-warrebuildingofIraqanditsadministration.According to the opinion of the International Institute IFIMES, the post-warrebuildingofIraqisaverydemandingandsensitiveissueduetothefactthatitincludesseveralquestions:humanitarian,political,social,ethnical,economicandothersaswell.TheUNOrganizationisnotreadytoproperlyrespondtosucha

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demandingtask,asconfirmedbytheexperiencefromBosniaandHerzegovina,Croatia,MacedoniaandofcourseAfghanistan.Iraqasastateisthreatenedfromwithinandfromoutside.TheinternaltroublesofIraqoriginateinanundefinedpoliticalsystemafterthefalloftheregimeandinalackofagreementamongthelocalethnicalgroups,suchastheKurds,theSunnitesandtheShiites.TheexternalthreattoIraqcomesfromseveraldirections:TurkeyisthreateningtheKurdsonthenorthofIraq,IranisinterferingwiththeinternalShiiteaffairs,especiallyinthesouthofthecountry,whilethegreatestdangercomesfromSyriaintowhichthecompleteIraqistateandpartyleadershiphasfledandwhichwillprobablyserveasthefuturecenterofdestabilizingthenewregimeinBaghdad.InSyriaasister-partyoftheIraqiBaathparty,theSyrianBaathparty,holdsthepower.Asmallestmistakeandanuntimely response insolving the IraqiquestioncancauseanexplosionintheentireregionfromIsraelandLebanonallthewaytoIran,traditionallyincloserelationswithSyria.InthiscontexttheUNOrganiza-tionisanout-datedandunreformedorganizationreactingveryslowlyalmostbyruleonlywhen theeventson thegroundaregettingoutofcontrol (IFORhasreplacedtheUNPROFORinBosniaandHerzegovina).TheIraqioppositionsharestheviewoftheUnitedStatesandwishesfortheUNOrganizationtohaveasecondaryroleinrebuildingthecountry,particularlyinthehumanitarianfieldwithintheframeworkofthe‘OilforFood’Programandintheareaofpoliticalrestructuringofthecountryanditsinternationalrecognition.ThustheIraqioppositionacceptedtheretiredAmericangeneralJayGarnerasthefutureleaderoftheciviladministration.Nextweekmembersoftheprovision-algovernmentwillbechosenfromalineofexpertsinemigrationorathome.SomeanalystsandmembersoftheInternationalInstituteIFIMES,whoarealsooutstandingandimportantmembersoftheIraqioppositionandmembersofthefutureprovisionalgovernmentaswell,participatedinvariousCommitteescloselycooperatingwiththeFutureofIraqDepartmentattheAmericanStateDepart-ment.AccordingtotheiropinionUSAwillfavorthecountriesthatwereontheAmerican side during the ‘Iraqi Freedom’ operation, which are Great Britain,Australia,Spain,Poland,Bulgaria,Georgia andRomania.Other countrieswillgaincontractsfromtheUN‘OilforFood’Program,alreadyinplacesince1996inaregularwaythroughinternationalandpublictenders;inotherwords,theywillonlysymbolicallyparticipateinreconstructingthecountry.Russiancompanieswillreceiveonesortofguaranteedrole,butnotthemainoneastheyhadbefore.SuchapositionwasearnedbyRussiabecauseofthemedia-tionservicesbetweentheCoalitionandtheIraqiregimetheyprovidedincourseofthe‘IraqiFreedom’operation,especiallyduetotheirroleinthequietdeparture

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oftheIraqileadership.WecannotneglecttheexcellentrelationshipsoftheRus-sianswiththeKurdishregionalgovernment inErbilandtheShiiteopposition,positionedinIran.FranceontheotherhandistryingtouseapartoftheIraqioppositionthatwasactivefromitsterritoryinthelast20years,butalsothebi-lateralagreementsthattheyhavewithGreatBritain(conversationsoftheforeignministersJack-Straw-DominicDeVillepan).TheInternationalInstituteIFIMESiswarningthatcompaniesfromSoutheasternEuropedonothaverealchancestoparticipateinthebigbusinessofthecentury,theRebuildingof Iraq, except somecountries suchasMacedonia andCroatiathathadinthepasttenyearsbeenhavingconstantandregularcontactswiththeIraqioppositionandwereallthistimepresentattheIraqimarket.ThesameholdsforcompaniesfromJordania,EgyptandSyriathatwereinaprivilegedposition(duty-freezone)duringtheregimeofSaddamHussein.ThemainprojectsoftherebuildingprocesswilloccurwithinjointconsortiumsundertheleadershipoftheUSandtheProvisionalciviladministrationoftheIra-qistate.Israelwillalsoplayanimportantroleinthereconstructionprojectsduetoitstechnologicalsuperiority.IsraelisandIraqishavealreadyagreedtoopentheMosul-HaifapipelinethatceaseditsactivitieswiththeestablishmentoftheStateofIsraelin1948.TheIsraeliMinisterforInfrastructureYosefBaretskiisalreadycountingonHaifatobecomesoonRotterdamoftheMediterranean.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana has been analyzing the newest events in connection to Syria in light of the establishment of ‘The New World Order’. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:

SYRIA – WILL IT BE PUNISHED OR REWARDED?

The quick fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Baghdad has changed settled-inequationsconcerningtheMiddleEastandtheinternationalpolitics ingeneral.TheAprilNinthofthisyearrepresentsahistoricaldatefortheMiddleEastandthe region thatwasmarkedbywars, violence, terrorism, tyrannyandmore, inotherwordsthingsnotfittedtoamodernman.Atthesametime,onthedaywheninBerlin,Paris,DamascusandCairothedemonstratorswereburningAmericanflags,theliberatedIraqiswerekissingthem.OnthetenthofAprilthisyear,theformeropponentsofthewarFrance,GermanyandRussia(accordingtotheRussiandaily‘Izvestia’theywerecalledthedefeatedones)cametogetherinSt.PetersburgandstartedtochangethepoliticalcoursewhilesimultaneouslyforgettingthewordsutteredduringlastsessionsoftheSecu-rityCouncilweeksago.AllofthemcongratulatedtheIraqipeople,wishedthempeaceandexpressedtheirreadinesstocanceltheIraqidebt-themoneyusedbytheIraqiregimetoconstructpalacesforthemselvesandtorturechambersforthepeople.ThedayoftheliberationofBaghdadwillcertainlyserveasamilestonenotamongthecenturies,butratherduetoafactthatBaghdadhasenteredthenewcenturywithanexitfromthemediaevaldarkness.ThecollapseofSaddamHussein’sregimewasalsoacollapseoftheUnitedNa-tionsOrganizationanditsSecurityCouncil,caughtamongtheeconomicinterestsof Russia, France, China and some dictatorial states that were not permanentmembersandwereafraidthatasimilarfatemightoccurtothemaswell,assaidbyRichardPearlefromtheDefensePoliticsCouncilattheAmericanPentagon.ThefirstreactionsarearrivingfromRussiafromthemeetingofthepresidentsPutin,ChiracandSchroederat the ‘PeaceandInternationalLaw’tribune.TheRussianPresidentPutinsaid‘thattheworldischangingandthattheinternationallawsystemhastochangeaswellinordertoadaptitselftothepresenttime’.ThereactionsoftheArabregimestothechangesinBaghdadareverycautious,sinceforthemachangeinBaghdadmeansachangeinthewholeregion.Somecoun-triesare takingthesechangesveryseriously.Oneof these isSaudiArabia thathas already announced a reconstruction of the government and establishmentof expert commissions to explore the urgently needed changes in the society,economyandeducationalsystem.Theroadtochanges inSaudiArabiawillbeproblematicandslowwithanuncertainoutcomesincetherulingdynastyAlSaud

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isasa systemcloselyconnected to theongoingprocesses in theSaudi society–rigideducationalsystem,limitedrightsofwomen(e.g.prohibitiontodrivecars,womendonotposses identity cards),unreformedandmore thanconservativereligiousleaders.ThechangeswillincludealsoIran.TwohundredIranianreligiousleaders(amongthemalsotheultra-conservativeformerpresidentRafsanjani)andprominentin-tellectualshaveintheiropenlettertothepresidentKhatemidemandedfromhimtospeedhisreformatoryefforts.TheconservativesarewellawarethatifthePresi-dentKhatemiwon’treformthecountry,theAmericanssurelywill.ThepricethenwouldbetoohighandthereisevenapossibilitythattheIslamicregimewouldfall.ThefearsofIranaresuperfluoussinceIranisnotapartoftheMiddle-Easternregioninwhichthereformsshouldtakeplace.IranbelongstotheareaofAfghani-stan,PakistanandtheCentralAsiaandistreatedinsuchacontext.AproofthatIranisnotapartoftheMiddleEastliesinthefactthatIranneverthreatenedthesecurityinPersianGulf,exceptminorincidentsduringtheIran-IraqWar.SyriaasacountryundertheruleoftheleftwingoftheBaathPartyisinaverydel-icateandsensitiveposition.Damascusisruledbyayoung,pro-westernLondonophthalmologistBasharAl-Asad,who inheritedanout-datedpoliticalstructureandindividualsthatweresurroundingandservinghisfather, thelatepresidentHafez Al-Asad, including: present Vice-President of the country AbdulhalimKhadam, theForeignMinisterFarukAl-Sharaa, theDefenseMinisterMustafaTelas,etc.andthecompletepartyapparatusinitselfbeingaremnantofthe‘ColdWar’,whenSyriawasanexponentoftheSovietUnionintheMiddleeast.EachattemptofthePresidentAl-Asadiscondemnedtofailunlessthoroughandradicalreformsareundertaken.InDamascus seatsof themost radicalorganizationsare found:Hamas, Jihad,Hezbollah, National Front and People’s Front for the Liberation of Palestine.AfterthefallofSaddamHusseininDamascustensoftheleadingfunctionariesof the Iraqi regimeand tensof Iraqinuclear,chemicalandbiologicalprogramscientistsfoundrefuge.AmongthemisalsoIzetAl-Douri,theNumbertwooftheformerIraqiregime.ThepresenceoftheremnantsoftheIraqiregimeinSyriarepresentsapotentialdangerforthenewadministrationinBaghdad.TothisweshouldaddthetransferoftheIraqichemicalweaponstoSyriainthebeginningofMarch2003,whichonlyaddedtotheexistingdanger.TheSyrianregimeisusingitsmilitarypresenceinLebanonandthepresenceofthementionedorganizationsinDamascustodirecttheSyrianpeopletotheex-ternalpoliticalenemyinordertoforgettheinteriortroublesofthecountrywith17millioninhabitants,ofwhich10%aretheKurdsandtheArmenians(500.000ofthemdonothaveaSyriancitizenship).ThepoliticalsystemissimilartotheformerIraqione;one-partysystem(Baath),permanentemergencymeasurements

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andthemilitarythatisineverywaytryingreachtheweaponsofmassdestruc-tion.AccordingtotheopinionoftheInternationalInstituteIFIMES,theSyrianleader-shipandespeciallythePresidentAl-Asadhavetoperformsomeurgentinterven-tions in the state structure. Syria has to define its position towards the futuregovernment in Baghdad and cooperate with Iraq on the new basis of friendlyneighboringrelationsandrespectoftheterritorialintegrityandunityoftheIraqistate.Becauseof this there is anurgentneed toexpel all thepersonnelof theformerIraqiregime,tofullycooperatewiththenewgovernmentinBaghdadandtheCoalitionforcesandtoinformthemonthenamesandthedatesofdepartureof the4.000 fighters (mujaheeds), amongwhich thereare1.000Syrians, fromitsterritorytoIraq.ThisrepresentsanimportantstepandaclearsignthatSyriawishespeacewithIraqandhasnodesiretohaveacountryinacivilwaronitseasternborder.Thesecondconditionistoceasetheactivityofradicalorganiza-tionsfromDamascus,afirststeptowardspeacewithIsrael.ThethirdconditionsisareductionofinfluenceandinterferencewiththeinternalaffairsofLebanon,sothatSyriacanbecomeacohesivefactoramongthediverseethnicalandreligiousgroupsinLebanon,andalsoatotalwithdrawalofSyriantroopsfromLebanon.SyriacomprisesanimportantpartoftheAmericanplancalled‘PartnershipfortheMiddleEast’intowhichIraq,Syria,Lebanon,Jordan,IsraelandthePalestin-ianAutonomybelong.Inthesecountriesdemocraticelementsarepresent,whileinsomecountriesdemocracyisunderway,likeinIraqoramongthePalestinians.Thepresent-daySyriadoesnot fit into the above-mentioned efforts andplans.Syriahasontheinternalplanetoabolishone-partysystem,endtheemergencymeasurements and legitimize oppositional parties. Syria has to respect humanrightsintowhichbelongstherevisionofthecitizenshiplaw,whichwouldprovideacitizenshiptohalfamillionofitsinhabitants,mostlyofKurdishandArmenianorigin.Therevisedcitizenshiplawalsohastogivetherightto400.000Palestin-ians,sotheycanvoluntarilyacquireSyriancitizenship.AccordingtotheopinionoftheInternationalInstituteIFIMES,ifSyriapositivelyrespondstothementionedrequestsitwillbepositivelyrewardedbytheU.S.andthenewIraqigovernmentwithaparticipationinrebuildingIraqasasub-contrac-tor,while inoppositecase itwillbepunished.TheUSAhasalreadypromisedsuchrewardstoTurkey,EgyptandJordan.Thesecountrieshave indirectlypar-ticipatedintheCoalitionandalsopossesanadditionaladvantagesincethepriceoftheirlaborforcedoesnotexceed300EUmonthlyandareincloseproximitytoIraqorareborderingonit.GreatBritain,Poland,BulgariaandRumaniawillbetreatedasmembersoftheCoalitionandwillassuchgainastatusofbusinesscontractorinIraq.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na has been analyzing the latest events in connection to Iraq or the emergency summit of the foreign ministers of the countries bordering Iraq: Iran, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Kuwait, but also Egypt and Bahrain – in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:

THE LOSERS: FROM SANKT PETERSBURG TO RIYADH

ThecapitalofSaudiArabia–Riyadhhasonthe19thofApril2003hostedforeignministersofthecountriesborderingonIraq:Iran,Turkey,Jordan,SaudiArabia,SyriaandKuwaitandtheforeignministersofEgyptandBahrain,thechairmanoftheArabLeague.TheconclusionsofthisministerialsummitareverysimilartotheconclusionsofthepresidentialtroikasummitofRussia,FranceandGermanyinSanktPetersburgafterthefallofBaghdad.InaccordancewiththeRussiandaily»Izvestia«,whichonitsfrontpagecalledtheSt.Petersburgsummitthesummitofthe»losers«,wecancallthesummitinRiyadhthesummitofthe»frightened«.ThecountriesparticipatingintheRiyadhsummitcanbedividedintotwogroups.The firstone isagroupofcountries supporting terrorism, like IranandSyria,whilethesecondoneiscomposedofthecountriesalliedtotheU.S.A.,whichareSaudiArabia,Egypt,Kuwait,JordanandTurkey.Inthefinalstatementtheminis-tersdemandedthatthe»occupying«forcesshouldleaveIraqassoonaspossible.AtfirstitappearsthatthesecountriesarewithsuchastatementmisleadingtheArabpublic,sinceitispreciselythesecountriesthathavebeenforseveralyearshostingon their territoryAmericanunitsbecauseof the financial aid theyarereceiving,suchasTurkeyandEgyptorbecauseofsecuringtheirownsafety(liketheGulfstates).The finalstatement isdemanding fromtheU.S.A. toallowtheIraqipeople toelect their own government in a democratic way. This statement is raising aquestion whether the governments in these countries (except Turkey) were bythemselveschosenbythepeopleinademocraticmannerandwhythesecountriesinthelast35yearshaven’tdemandedfortheIraqipeoplethatsameright,i.e.tochooseitsgovernmentbyitself?The ministers believe that the provisional administration of Iraq possesses nolegalityandhasnoright toadminister theIraqioil.Thisopinion is raisingyetanotherquestion:HastheregimeofSaddamHusseinhadtherighttoadministertheIraqioilbyusingitsrevenuetomurderamillionofIraqisandtowagetwomilitaryadventuresagainstIranandKuwait?TheforeignministersofthesecountriesrepeatedthedemandsofRussia,FranceandGermanytoabolishthesanctionsaftertheestablishmentofachosengovern-mentthatcouldbeappointedintwoyearsfromnow.Thisisareflectionoftheir

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fearsthatIraqmightbereturningtotheoilmarket.Somecountries, likeSaudiArabiaandEgyptdependonthequantityandthepriceoftheoilontheworldmarket,whileothers,likeTurkey,Jordan,SyriaandalsoEgyptearnedtensofbil-lionsofdollarsfromillegalsaleoftheIraqioilthroughaprivilegedstatusintheUN»OilforFood«programtradeframework.AccordingtotheopinionoftheInternationalInstituteIFIMES,bothsummitsinSanktPetersburgandinRiyadhoverlookedtwoimportantfactsconcerningeveryIraqi,suchassecurityandnon-interferencewiththeirinternalaffairsinthistran-sitionalandcriticalperiodoftime.Herewehaveinmindtheroleofthepro-SaudipoliticianAdanPachachyandthepro-IranianShiiteleaderAdbulazizAl-Hakim,who in fact became thepress representativesofRiyadhandTeheran.Anotherimportantfactrepresentsthedebtsoftheregimethatamountupto47–127bil-lion$.AccordingtothedataoftheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiesinWashingtonIraqowes(inbilliondollars)toSaudiArabia25,otherGulfstates(withoutKuwait)17,Kuwait5,TheParisClub(withoutFrance)12.5,France8,Russia8,tocommercialbanks6.2,toEasternEuropeanstates4billiondollarsandthelistgoeson.Thequestionofdebtcancellation(inwholeorpartially)isamatterofagoodwillgestureanddependsontheintentionsofthesecountriestostartanewpoliticalandeconomiccooperationwiththenewIraq.According to theopinionof the International Institute IFIMESeveryministerthatarrivedtoRiyadhhashaditsownreasonsfordoingso,exceptKuwaitthatisonlyinterestedinstabilityandpeacewithitsnorthernneighbor.Themeetingwouldbeofgreat interestandwouldbepraised if in thebackgroundwouldn’thavebeenhiddenbadintentionsoftheparticipantswithunifiedpositiondespitetheirmutualideologicalhatred.WiththiswerefertoNATOTurkey,ShiiteIran,ConservativeSunniteSaudiArabia,BaathSyriaandsoforth.

· TURKEY is well aware of the fact that its historical role is coming to itsend: American bases in Caucasus, Central Asia, Afghanistan and in Iraqcangradually replace thebases inTurkey thathavebecomedangerousduetotheinfluenceoftheIslamistsandtheexpensivetrackoftheweekTurkisheconomy.Turkeywishes tohaveawordandshare in thepost-warIraqandpossessesaTrojanhorse in the formofa smallTurkmenpartywitha seatin Ankara, which is lead by Sanan Aga and has been for the last decadeboycottinganentryintotheRegionalGovernmentofKurdistan.

· IRANhasgreatestfearsduetotheAmericanpresenceonitswesternborderthatwillcertainlybepermanenton theairfieldsofBaghdad,H3,TalilandHarir.ThefearsofIranbecameexpressedthroughtheSCIRI(TheSupremeCouncilofIslamicRevolutioninIraq)boycottoftheoppositionmeetinginNasiriyainthemiddleofApril,2003andthroughdailyShiitedemonstrations

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against the American presence. The banners on these demonstrations arecopiesofsimilardemonstrationsinTeheranagainstthe»GreatSatan«.

· SAUDIARABIA is in fearaswell, since it iswellaware that it is thenextdominotofallafterSaddamHussein.AccordingtotheopinionoftheJohnAltermanfromtheCenterforInternationalandStrategicStudies:»...inisintheinterestofSaudiArabiaforIraqtobeunstableinordertoprovethefailedpoliticsoftheU.S.A.inthisregionandastoavoidthewindsofchangethatareincreasinglyblowingpreciselytoitsterritory.«SaudiArabiaiswellawarethat every smallest democratic change signifies a danger to the monarchy,builtonthebasisofradicalWahabiteteachings.Itwastheseteachingsthathavecontributedmostlytothehatredof theMuslimsagainst theWestanditsvalues.AccordingtotheopinionofaprominentSaudipublicistTurkiAl-Hamada:»Eachandeverycountryisconcernedabouttheexistingsituation,especiallySaudiArabia,sinceitcanchoosebetweenreformsorfall-downoftheregimeaccordingtoSaddamHusseinmodel–thereisnothirdalternative.«AsimilaropinionisheldbytheSaudianalystMashariThaidi,whobelieves:»... that it is about time for a political, social and economic reform of thecountrywith250billion$ofpublicdebt,10billion$ofcurrentbudgetdeficitandwiththreemillionunemployed.«

· SYRIAisonthisconferencefoundintheweakestposition.IthastoprovetotheU.S.A.thatitisnotofferingasheltertosomeleadingmenoftheformerSaddam’sregime.SyriawasalsoleftwithoutabilliondollarofearningsfromthesaleofIraqioil(theKirkuk–Baniyaspipeline).

· JORDANhasexclusivelyeconomicinterests.ThiscountryiswithoutoilandwithoutwaterandhasinthelasttwodecadesbeensurvivingthankstoIraq.InthetimesofIraq-IranwaritservedasalogistichinterlandofIraq.AftertheGulfwarithadthesameroleandservedastheonlyIraqiwindowtotheworld.ThroughJordanalargepartoftheillegaloiltradewasconducted.IraqwasdeliveringtoJordanhalfofthecountry’soilneedsatasymbolicpriceof7$perbarrel,whiletheotherhalfwasdonatedtotheJordanianpeople.Today,JordanhasinordertoexitthiscrisisgivesomepainfulconcessionstoIsraelandtothenewIraqigovernment.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana has been analyzing the Turkish political system and the efforts of the Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan to reform the Turkish constitution. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:

TURKEY: ON THE TRACK OF RADICAL CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS

TheTurkishPrimeMinisterRecepTayibErdogandeclaredlastweekthatheisplanningtoreformtheparliamentarysysteminTurkey.ItshouldbecomesimilartotheAmericansystem,whichischaracterizedbygreatpowerinthehandsofthe president. The reform of the Turkish presidential system with great powerrepresentsagreatblowtothemilitaryhierarchy,possessinglargeautonomyandauthorizationsthatgowellbeyondthoseofthepresidentofthecountryortheprimeminister.TheTurkisharmyhashadonthebasisofwideauthorizationsithasreceived,agreatinfluenceontheTurkishpoliticallifeandhasbynowalreadythreetimes(1961,1970and1980)intervenedwiththepoliticsandtoppledthelegitimatelyelected government. Most recently the army intervened in 1997 when they in-directlythroughtheConstitutionalCourtforcedthePrimeMinisterNecmettinErbakantoresign.ThepresentattempttoreformtheconstitutionisnotthefirstoneinthehistoryofmodernTurkey.Thus,TurgutOzalandespeciallySuleymanDemirelinthemiddleofthe1990’sadvocatedthereformoftheTurkishpresidentialsystem.ThearmyaccusedDemirelofwantingtoreducetheroleoftheparliamentandrespondedbydemandingareferendum.PerhapsthegreatestadvocateoftheconstitutionalreformwasMesudYilmaz,whowasasDeputyPrimeMinisterinchargeofthenegotiationswiththeEuropeanUnion.Yilmazwasawareofthefactthatwithoutreformandwithoutdefiningtheroleofthearmy,theentryintotheEUcannotbeaccomplished,sincethearmyhastobeundertotalciviliansupervision.

THE TURKISH CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER

ThemaincharacteristicoftheTurkishconstitutionalorderliesinthefactthatthestateisinconstantstateofreadinesstoconfronttheenemiesofsecularismandintheenforcementofTurkishnationalism,apointthatservesasthemainpillaroftheTurkishstateandidentity.TheTurkishnationalismwishestoerase(in)famousTurkishOttomanheritageandisdenyingtheexistenceofothernationalitiesorethnicalgroups.Onthebasisofthistheyhadalreadyexiledand/orkilledamil-

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lionofOrthodoxArmenians.Lateron,theKurdsweredeniedtherighttoself-de-terminationasKurdsandtheTurkishauthoritiesclassifiedthemastheMountainTurks.ThesameruleappliedalsotohalfamillionofArabsintheProvinceofIskenderunintheHataiRegion.Thus,Turkeyforciblybecameaone-nationstatewithanidentitycrisis,wheretheidentitywasbeingsearchedforbetweenthesecu-larismofAtaturk,defendedbythearmyandtheOttomanheritage(islam)thathasbynowalreadyseveraltimessurfacedinaformofIslamistparties.

THE HISTORY OF TURKISH CONSTITUTION

FirstattemptstointroducetheOttomanconstitutionreachbacktothetimesofSultanSelimIII(1789-1807).TheOttomanEmpirewasthenfoundundertheinfluenceoftheFrenchRevolution,whichmeantreadinesstoanewEuropeanorder.IntheOttomanEmpire,theSultanpossessedanabsolutepower.Thefirstconstitutionwascalled»TheFundamentalLaw«andwasreceivedonDecember3rd1876.»TheFundamentalLaw«included12chaptersand119articles,mostlytakenfromRussianandBelgianconstitution.ThisLawwasreceivedduringthereign of Abdulhamid II, who was deposed on Deccember 7th 1908 and whopreventedtheapplicationofthelawuntiltheyear1906.AfterthefalloftheOt-tomanEmpireandestablishmentoftheRepublicofTurkeywasontheruinsofitsforerunnerinNovember1922adoptedanewconstitution,whichwasformedintheimageoftheSwissconstitution.MustafaKemalAtaturkwasonthe29thofOctober1923chosenasthePresidentofTurkey,whoofficiallyterminatedtheOttomanEmpire.OnMarchthe3rd1924,Ataturkpublishedanedictseparatingreligionandstate.Thisrepresentedahistoricalmilestonebetweentheoldandthenewpro-EuropeanTurkey.Firstinterferencewiththeconstitutionoccurredonthe27thofMay1961,whenthearmybloodilydeposedtheDemocraticParty,whichcametopoweraftermorethantwodecadesofAtaturk’sPeople’sRepublicanPar-tyrule.TheDemocraticPartywasaccusedofanattempttoislamizethestateandtodestroytheheritageofAtaturk.ThepresidentofthecountryJelalBayar,theprimeministerAdnanMendersandthechairmanoftheparliamentRefikKultanwereallcondemnedtodeath.Lateron,theTurkisharmyintervenedtwicemore,forthelasttimeinSeptember1980,whenthegeneralKeneEvrinoverthrewthelegitimategovernmentandlateronbecamethePresidentofTurkey.ThepresentTurkishconstitutionwaswrittenintheperiodofKenanEvrin,intheyear1982.Thisconstitutionrecognizedalimitedamountofhumanrights;neverthelessthepro-reformconstitutional judgeSamiSaljukdeclaredafter theconstitutionwasapprovedthatitrepresentsanordinarypoliticalreportonthetortureofcitizens.The1982ConstitutionisrepeatingtheintroductorytextofthedocumentstatingthatKemalAtaturkisanimmortalhero,whileitssecondamendmentisdefining

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Turkeyasasecularstate.Itwasthis,the2ndamendmentonthebasisofwhichin1997PrimeMinisterErbakanwasousted.Theconstitutionisalso includingregulationsontheunityofTurkishRepublicandaprohibitionfortheminoritiestousetheirownlanguageandculture.Officially,nominoritiesarerecognizedinTurkey,thereareonlysocalledTurkishdialects.IntheninetiesofthepreviouscenturyPresidentTurgutOzalwasattemptingtosolvethisproblematic.Finnally,inAugust2002Turkey,aftertheEUpressure,allowedtheunofficialuseofotherdialects,amongotherstheKurdish,inthedailylifeoftheTurks.Turkeydidnothave thecourage to recognize thementionednationalitiesand their languages,withwhichinjusticewasdonenotonlytothecitizens,butalsotosciences,suchasphilologyandhistoryamongothers.

THE CONSTITUTIONAL INSTITUTIONS

1. TheNationalAssemblyoftheRepublicofTurkeyiscomposedof550deputieschosen according to a proportional election system for a mandate of fiveyears.

2. ThePresidentoftheTurkishRepubliciselectedfromamongthemembersoftheNationalAssemblywitha2/3majority.ThePresidentappointsthePrimeMinisterandofficiallyservesastheChiefCommanderoftheArmedForces(throughthefunctionofaPresidentoftheNationalSecurityCouncil).

3. Premierisappointedfromthewinningparty(orcoalition)foramandateoffiveyearsbythePresident.

4. TheConstitutionalCourtiscomposedof11regularandfourreservemembers,chosenbythePresidentofthecountryfromamongcivilandmilitaryjudges.TheConstitutionalCourtisplayingaveryimportantrole,whilethejudgesaremostlyunderthemilitaryinfluenceduetothepresenceoffivemilitaryjudgeswithinitsranks.TheConstitutionalCourtin1997toppledpremierErbakanexactlyonthebasisofarecommendationfromtheconstitutionaljudgesfrommilitaryranks.

5. TheNationalSecurityCouncilisthestrongestorganintheTurkishstateandpossessesanunlimitedpowerovereverydevelopmentinthecountry:interiorandforeignpolicy,defense,economy,culture,etc.Wecouldbetalkingofastatewithinastateoraparallelgovernmentwiththeabovementionedotherbranchesofthegovernment.ItiscomposedoftheChiefofStaffandotherfour Commanders of the Turkish Army branches (air-force, infantry, navyandgendarmerie),Premier,Ministersofdefense,interiorandforeignaffairs.ThePresidentofthecountryisaPresidentoftheNationalSecurityCouncil,whichisactuallyaninstrumentofthearmytointerferewithallthequestionsanddetailswithinthecountry.Thementionedinfluenceisfamiliartoallthe

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citizensofTurkey irrespectiveofdifferent interpretationsanddefinitionsofthis totalitarianbody,supportedbytheTurkishconstitution.It is thisexactarmythatismoststronglythroughtheCouncilinfluencingthepoliticalandeconomicdevelopmentofTurkey,anditistheCouncilthatisrepresentingastumbling-blockandanobstacletotheentryofTurkey intoEU,whichwasalsoputonpaperbytheEUintheannual2000report.TheunsolvedquestionofCyprusisalsoderivingfromthementionedroleofthearmy,despitetheeffortsoftheUN,EUandpremierErdogantosolvetheCyprusquestiononthebasisofaUNFebruary2003plan.

AccordingtotheopinionoftheInternationalInstituteIFIMEStheeffortsofthepremierErdogandeservepraise.Evenmoreso,thepremiershouldbefurtheren-couragedinhiseffortstoreformtheconstitution.Thechangesintheconstitutioninthemselvesshouldnotfocussolelyontheroleofthepresidentofthecountry;areformoftheconstitutionalcourtisalsoneededinordertopreventtheelectionofjudgesfromthemilitary.GreaterpowersinthehandsofthepresidentwouldatthesametimerepresentareductionofmilitaryjurisdictioninTurkeythatatthefirstsightappearstobeademocraticstatewithpermanentinternalemergencymeasurements.ThechangeofTurkishconstitutionisasignificantsteptowardsareformoftheTurkishdemocracythatwastoleratedbytheWestinthepast.Turkeyplayedinthe»ColdWar«ahistoricalroleforadefenseoftheWestbecauseitwasborderingonthesouthernpartsoftheformerUSSR.Today,thesamenorthernneighborsofTurkeyrepresentapartofademocraticworldandareactivemem-bersofthe»Anti-terroristCoalition«andthe»IraqiFreedomCoalition«andwith-outsecondthoughtallowedtheAlliestousetheirbases,whileTurkeyreceivedonlyaroleofapassiveobserver.

ReformsareintheinterestofTurkeyduetotworeasons:1. Withthis itcanenter inamorerecognizablefashionandmorerealistically

intotheprocessoftheMiddleEastdemocratizationastheonlyIslamicstatethat is amemberofNATOandwith adirectly anddemocratically electedparliament.TheTurkishsysteminitspresentformcannotrepresentamodelforotherIslamicstates(suchasIraq,Iran,Syria,SaudiArabia,etc.)ontheirpathofreformsandapproachingtheparliamentarydemocracy.

2. ItisintheinterestofTurkeytojointheEUassoonaspossible,despitethefactthatTurkeyislikeatreegrowinginAsiawithonlyonebranchinEurope(assaidbyValleryGiscardd’Estaign,PresidentoftheEUFutureConvention).

AccordingtotheopinionoftheInternationalInstituteIFIMES,enteringofTur-keywouldrepresentahistoricalopportunitytosolvetheeconomicproblemsof

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60millionTurks.TurkeyhastobeawareofthefactthattimeisnotworkinginitsfavorandthatsomeprocesseswillgoonirrespectiveofwhetherTurkeywillparticipateinthemornot.TurkeycanbecomeabridgeconnectingEuropeandtheMiddleEastinpoliticalandalsoineconomicsense.NowitistheturnofthepragmaticpremierErdogan,whoissupportedbytheparliament,U.S.A.andtheEU,especiallybythePresi-dentoftheEuropeanCommissionRomanProdi,whobytheendofhismandatewishestojointotheEUaunifiedCyprusandtoprepareTurkeyfortheentrybytheyear2007(alongsideCroatiaandothermembershipcandidates).

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IFIMES – The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies in Ljublja-na has been analyzing the coming presidential elections in the Republic of Montene-gro, that will take place on the 11th of May 2003. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:

MONTENEGRO: ON THE ROAD TOINDEPENDENCE AND AUTOKEPHALITY

ThepopulationofMontenegrotodayiscomposedof63%Montenegrins,17%Bos-niacs,9%Serbs,7%Albaniansand1%Croats.Thereligiousaffiliationprovidesthefollowingpicture:72%Orthodox,21%Moslemand4%Catholic.Thesedataarebasedon thepopulationcensus from1991,but theannouncedcensuswillprobablyprovidemorereliabledataonthecompositionofthepopulation.Todaythereare662.000inhabitants,whileonthecomingelectionsforthepresidentofMontenegroonthe11thofMaythisyearthereare458.367citizenswitharighttovote.Theelectionswillcostatleast1.3millionEuros.Tobecomeacandidatethecandidateshadtosubmitatleast4.569signaturesasaproofofvoters’support.Thiswillbealreadythethirdattempttoelectapresident,sincetheprevioustwowereunsuccessfulduetoatoosmallamountofthevoterswhoattendedtheelections,whichinbothcasesdidnotreachhalfofallthevot-ers.Asaconsequencealawwaspassedaccordingtowhichfortheelectionstobesuccessfulatleast30%oftheelectorateneedstoattendtheelections.Thistimetherearethreecandidatesontheelections:FilipVujanovicfromtherulingcoalition»ForaEuropeanMontenegro«composedofDPS–TheDemo-craticPartyoftheSocialist,SDP–TheSocialDemocratPartyandTheBourgeoisParty.ThenextcandidateisMiodragZivkovic,apoliticalleaderofTheLiberalUnionofMontenegroandthe independentcandidateDraganHajdukovic.Theoppositionfromthepro-Serbianandpro-Yugoslavpartiesdoesnothaveitsownpresidentialcandidate.Theelectioncampaignisacampaignofunequalcontestants.TheabsolutefavoriteisFilipVujanovic,whoisenjoyingthegreatestsupportoftheelectorateandisatthesametimethecandidateoftherulingcoalition»ForaEuropeanMontenegro«.HiselectionsforthePresidentofMontenegrowouldmeanacontinuationofthecontinuationpolicyandeconomicreforms,undertakenbytheMontenegringov-ernmentundertheleadershipoftheprimeministerMileDjukanovic.ElectionofDjukanovicwouldrepresentastepforwardtowardsindependenceandproclama-tionoftheindependentRepublicofMontenegroandabeginningofanendforthestateunionbetweenSerbiaandMontenegro.ThepresentMontenegrogovern-mentwas forced toenter thestateunionbetweenSerbiaandMontenegro thatisaccordingtotheopinionofIFIMESInstituteonlyapassingsolutiontowards

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final independenceofMontenegro.TheelectionofVujanovicforthepresidentwouldfurthercomplicatethepositionforthePrimeMinisterDjukanovic,sincehewillbeleftwithoutamaneuveringspaceandhewon’tbeabletoblameforthelackofsuccessanybodyelse,sincehewillhaveanabsolutepower.TheeconomicsituationinMontenegroisextremelydifficult;thereisageneralapathyintheso-ciety.ThePremierDjukanovicgovernmentwillhavetospeedtheexistingreformprocessesandstartnewoneswithwhichexistingeconomicdevelopmentwouldbefastenedandnewoneswouldbestarted,withwhichdevelopmentofeconomywouldbestrengthenedandthenumberofemployedwouldbeenlarged.Newandfreshpersonnelwouldhavetobetakenin,includingtothepoliticaloptionofthePrimeMinisterDjukanovic,sinceforseveralyearsitisfunctioningonlyasatroikaDjukanovic-Vujanovic-Marovic.MiodragZivkovic,thepoliticalleaderhasonlysmallchancesonthepresidentialelections,sincehedidnotsucceedensuringeventhesupportoftheposition.HispoliticalprogramisbasedontheconflictwithMileDjukanovicandhissupport-ersforwhichastheexistingpowerstructureheisnotchoosingwords,includingthat thegovernment is single-party,mafia-typeandcriminal.The reputationoftheMontenegrinliberalswasbadlydamagedandpunishedbythedisappointingelectionresultsontherecentparliamentaryelections, inwhichtheyconnectedthemselvestothepro-Yugoslavandpro-Serbianparties(whichdonothavetheirownpresidentialcandidateontheseelections),despitethefactthattheyarefromthebeginningoftheirpoliticalactivitybeingclassifiedastheadvocatesfortheindependenceofMontenegro.DraganHajdukovic,anindependentcandidate,enteredtheelectionracepromot-inganideaofMontenegroasanecologicalstate.Thistimeheisenteringthelec-tionsasthepresidentialcandidateforthefourthtime!OntheroadtofinalindependenceofMontenegrotherewillbeaneedtosolvethestatusofSerbianOrthodoxChurchandtheMontenegrinOrthodoxChurchinconnectiontothequestionofautokephality.Autokephalousisachurchthatisnotruledbyanyotherchurchandisindependentlychoosingitsbishops–includingthefirstone,withoutaneedforanyone’sconsent.FortheMontenegrinOrtho-doxChurchtobecomeautocephalousithastoreceiveconsentofthe»MotherChurch«,inthiscasetheSerbianOrthodoxChurch.TheInternationalInstituteIFIMESbelievesthattherearenocanonicalobstaclesfortheexistenceoftheautocephalouschurchesinMontenegro–TheMontenegrinandtheSerbianone.Inthethree-yearsinterimperiodalltheopenedquestionsbetweenthetwochurchesshouldbesolvedbilaterally,takingintoaccountthefactthattheChurchinMontenegrohadfrom1766until1920,whenthePatriarchyinPecwasestablishedaspecificstatus.ItwasalmostautonomousandwaslivinginthemountainsofMontenegrowithpriestsfrompeopleaccordingtothecanon

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oftheOrthodoxChurch.Thementionedquestionshouldbesolvedasquicklyaspossible, sinceotherwise that coulddamage the secularityof theMontenegrinstatewithanimpressionthatthestateisfavorizingoneortheotherchurch.The independence of Montenegro is connected with events and processes inKosovo,wheretheyarewiththeirindependentprocessesapproachingthetotalindependence.PresentMontenegringovernmentwouldhavetoofferitsownsolu-tionoftheKosovoquestion.WiththisweshouldnotforgettheclearpositionoftheEUthatthebordersoftheexistingcountriesshouldnotbechanged.EUisinthisconnectionmorecautious,sinceitisawarethatthechangeinbordersandproclamationof independenceofKosovocouldalsocausesimilarscenarios inCatalonia,Corsica,NorthernIreland,Belgium,etc.USAisontheothersideinfavoroftheKosovoindependence,especiallyduetothestrongAlbanianlobby.Thereisalsoapossibilityofacompromisedsolutionincreatingalooseconnec-tion between Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro. Solving these questions on theBalkanswillsoonbecomeaverypopulartopic.AmericanadministrationdesiresaftertheIraqiinterventiontoshowitsabilitytosolvealltheunsolvedquestionson theBlakans, suchasKosovo,BosniaandHerzegovinaandMacedonia.Ac-cording with this there will be a need to stop the transfer of the powers fromUNMIKtothegovernmentofKosov,tospeedtheprocessofsolvingthequestionofrefugeereturn,humanrightsandeconomicdevelopment.OnKosovo in thepowerall theethnicalgroupshave tocooperate,whichwouldcertainly reducealltheinter-ethnictensions.WecanexpectaharshbattleonthediplomaticfieldinconnectiontotheKosovoquestion.Fornowalltheoptionsareopenedexceptthe»GreatAlbania«andthe»GreatSerbia«,sincetheUSAhaveclearlywarnedthattheywillnottolerateterrorismtoaccomplishgoals.TheAmericanwaronterrorismiscontinuing!TheInternationalInstituteIFIMESbelievesthatthepresentgovernmentinMon-tenegrohassucceededinpreservingtheinternationaltrustandgoodinter-ethnicandinter-religiousrelations(betweenMontenegrins,Bosniacs,Serbs,AlbaniansandCroats)intheMontenegrinsociety.TheseinMontenegrohavenotsucceededthescopeandtheleveloftheneighboringcountries.AtthesametimeIFIMESispointingtoatoosmallparticipationofwomeninthepoliticsofMontenegro,whichcouldalreadybenoticedduringthepreviousparliamentaryelections.Alsothistimethereisnowomancandidateforthepresidentialpost.

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LEGAL POSITION OF CHURCHES AND RELIGIOUSCOMMUNITIES IN BOSNIA AND HERCEGOVINA

EMIR KOVAČEVIĆWorld Conference on Religion and Peace (WCRP),Bosnia and Herzegovina

ReligionhasalwaysplayedasignificantpartinsocietyinBosniaandHerzegovi-na.Giventhatthis isacountrywheredifferentreligionsandculturesmeet,wemaycomeacrossplentyofshiningexamplesoftolerancebetweenthefollowersofdifferentreligions,butunfortunately,therearealsoamanyinstancesofreligiousintolerance,includingthedestructionofreligiousbuildingsandthepersecutionandexpulsionofmembersofotherreligions.Therelationshipbetweenreligionandpoliticsasawhole,andbetweenthestateandreligiouscommunitiesinparticular,isacomplexone,andhasgivenrisetovariousmediatingmechanisms.Thecomplexityderives fromthewiderangeofcrucial facets of social life that occupy a prominent place in the relationshipbetweenthestateandreligiouscommunities.Amongthemarethelegitimacyofthestate itself, the issueofwhohasamonopolyover the truth,administrativeindependence(formerlyofthestate,andnowofthereligiouscommunities),edu-cation,fundingreligiouscommunities,religioninthearmedforces,andreligiousrightsandfreedoms,particularlythoseofminorities.ThecircumstancesinwhichtheinteractionbetweenreligiouscommunitiesandthestatetakesplacearewhollydifferentnowfromwhattheywereintheMiddleAges,whichfundamentallyalterstheconditionsofdialogue.Thesenewcircum-stancesarereflectedinthefactthatthepowerorauthoritythatcouldbeused(orabused)againstotherreligiouscommunities, formerly inthehandsofreligiousgroups,isnowlargelyheldbythesecularauthorities.Althoughthereareexcep-tions,ithasbecomemorelikelythatpoliticalentitieswilluseforceagainstreli-giousgroupsthantheotherwayround.Naturallyenough,thinkerswereformerlychieflypreoccupiedwithwaysofprotectinganemergingstatefromanaggressivechurch. Nowadays, it is quite the contrary: it is the modern state that usuallyrepresentsapotentialthreattothereligiousandotherrightsofitscitizensandgroups.(1)

1. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

Freedomof religionand the legal statusof religiouscommunities inBiHhavebeenregulatedinvariouswaysoverthecenturies.Aslongagoasthe1878BerlinCongress, provisions were introduced guaranteeing freedom of religion to all

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thoseunderAustro-Hungarianrule.On19September1919theTreatyofStGermain-en-Layewassigned,whichin-cludedprovisionsontheprotectionofminorities.TheKingdomofSerbs,CroatsandSlovenesaccededtothisTreatyon5December,whichwasproclaimedtobeaninterimtreatyon10May1920,butdeclaredtobeapermanentlawfollowingtheStVitus’DayConstitution.Assuch,itrepresentedthebasicsourceofpositivelawfortheprotectionofminorities.UndertheKingdomofSerbs,CroatsandSlovenes,theprincipleof»recognizedreligions«applied.Article12oftheStVitus’DayConstitutionstates:»Freedomofreligionandconscienceisguaranteed.Adoptedreligiousbeliefsareequalbeforethelawandmaypubliclyprofesstheirreligiousdoctrines.«Thefollowingreligionswererecognizedatthattime:OrthodoxChristianity,Ro-manCatholicism, Islam, theevangelicalandreformProtestantchurches,Juda-ism,theBaptistChurch,andtheCroatianOldCatholicChurch.WiththeendofWorldWarIIin1945,themodelofthesecularstatewasintro-duced in thenewYugoslavia,characterizedby theseparationofreligiouscom-munities and the state. Religion was declared to be the private affair of eachindividual,and theenjoymentofcivil rights tobe independentofaffiliation toanyreligionornone.Theadoptionofthismodelofregulatingtherelationsbetweenreligiouscommuni-tiesandthestatenecessarilyresultedinreligiousrulesandregulationslosingtheirlegalforce;nocitizen,regardlessofaffiliationtoaparticularreligionorreligiouscommunity,couldenjoymorerightsthanothersorbedeprivedofcertainrights.GiventhatthewarofnationalliberationfoughtinYugoslaviaduringWorldWarIIwasaccompaniedbyasocialistrevolutionthatledtosocietybeingstructuredonMarxistprinciples,itwasnaturallythatthenewauthoritieswouldfollowthisdoc-trineinitsattitudetotherelationsbetweenthestateandreligiouscommunities.Marxistdoctrinesawtheexistenceofreligioninagivensocietyasanindicatorofalienation,andasaresultreligionwasseeninanegativelight.(2)TheconstitutionalpositionofreligiouscommunitiesinthenewYugoslaviawasstipulatedbyArticles21,23and25ofthe1946ConstitutionoftheFederalNa-tionalRepublicofYugoslavia,whichread:

Art.21.AllcitizensoftheFederalRepublicofYugoslaviaareequalbeforethelawandinrightsregardlessofnationality,race,orreligiousbelief.Noprivilegesonthegroundsofbirth,position,propertyorlevelofeducationarerecognized.Allactsthataccordprivilegesorrestricttherightsofcitizensonthebasisofdif-ferencesofnationality,raceorreligiousbeliefarecontrarytotheConstitutionandsubject topenalties,as isallpropagationofnational, racialor religious

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hatredanddissension.

Art.23Allcitizens,regardlessofsex,nationality,race,religiousbelief,levelofeduca-tionandplaceofresidence,andwhohavereachedtheageof18,havetherighttovoteandtobeelectedtoanybodyofthestateauthorities.

Art.25Citizensareguaranteedfreedomofconscienceandfreedomofreligiousbelief.Thechurchisseparatefromthestate.ReligiousconstitutionswhosedoctrinesarenotcontrarytotheConstitutionarefreetoconducttheirreligiousaffairsandperformtheirreligiousrites.Religiousschoolsfortrainingpriestsarefree,underthesupervisionofthestate.Theabuseofreligionforpoliticalendsandtheexistenceof religiouslybasedpoliticalorganizationsareprohibited.Thestatemayprovidematerialassistancetoreligiouscommunities.

Whileguaranteeingfreedomofconscienceandreligiousbelief,the1946Constitu-tionofFNRYinfactproclaimedtheseparationofreligiouscommunitiesandthestateanddeclaredreligiontobetheprivatematterofeachcitizen;thestatewasnotinterestedinwhetheritscitizenswerebelieversornot.Freedomofconscienceimpliedthateveryindividualwasfreetochoosewhethertobelieve(tobeatheist)ornot(tobeanatheist).Thiswasanabsolutefreedom,partofthemostprivateinnermostbeingofeachindividual,andthestatehadnobusinessinterferinginthisdomainorseekingtolegislateforit.Freedomofreligionisthefreewillofeveryindividualtoadheretotheworldviewor religion of his or her choice. The way in which religion is professed is thesubjectofthelegalnormsofindividualstatesand,oflate,increasinglyofinter-nationallegalinstruments.Freedomtoprofessone’sreligionisdefinedbystatelegislationandisnot,therefore,absolute,butlimitedbythefundamentalrightsandfreedomsofothers,publiclawandorder,morality,customsandsoon.Therestrictionsonfreedomtoprofessone’sreligionarealsoprescribedbylaw,soasnottojeopardizelegalsecurityandtoavoidarbitrarinessonthepartofthestateauthorities.(3)In everyday life in the new Yugoslavia, however, and particularly in the early1960s,practicedidnotmatchtheconstitutionalprinciples.Giventhatinasocietyrunbyaone-partysystemtherewasineffectnodifferencebetweenthepartyandstateapparatus,orbetweenpartyandstateaims,therewasanoperativesymbiosisbetweenstateandpartyineverydomainofsociallife.Itwasentirelylogical,therefore,giventhatMarxistdoctrinewastheofficialideol-ogyofthesingle,rulingparty,thatthepolicytowardsreligiouscommunitieswas

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toseek to limit their influence insociety,and toexercisecontrolandpressureonleadingrepresentativesofreligiouscommunitiestoshowloyaltytothestateauthorities.(4)Intheory,thestatewishedtotreatindividualbelieversascitizenswithfullrights,butinpracticethereweremanydeparturesfromthisprinciple,particularlyatthelocal level.Thesedeparturesweretoleratedandevenencouraged,totheextentthatitcouldbesaidthatthestateauthoritiesapplieddoublestandardstoreligiouscommunities:declaratively,theyupheldpositivelaws,butinpracticetheyresort-edtoextra-institutionalmeans.Anykindofbehaviourthatdidnotcoincidewiththelegalprescriptionswasregardedasevidenceofinexperience,incompetence,sectarianismandsoon.Butnooneinlocalgovernmentwaseverheldresponsibleforhisorherconduct.Forthemostpart,itdidnotgobeyondverbalcondemna-tion.(5)Religiositybecametheprivateaffairofbelievers,butnaturallyenoughreligiouscommunities did not wish to relinquish their influence on society. The weightandnatureofthisinfluencewasoftenacontestedsubjectbetweenthereligiouscommunitiesandthestate.Religiouscommunitieswerenotwillingtobemargin-alized,whilethestateauthoritiesdenouncedeveryactionbythereligiouscommu-nitiesofanysignificancewhichthey,theauthorities,regardedastransgressingthelegitimateboundsofthereligiouscommunities’actionsasclericalism,orthepo-liticizationofreligionandthereligioussentimentsofthecountry’scitizens.Theauthoritiesthusmadeuseofallkindsofrepression, includingphysicalattacks,prosecution,persecution,abuseofthepriesthood,threats,economicdeprivationandsoon.Furthermore,thestatedidnotregardallreligiouscommunitiesinanequal light, although equality of treatment was prescribed by the Constitutionand the arms’ length viewof every religious communitywas almost invariablyemphasized.(6)Inadditiontothebanonreligiouseducationinordinaryschools,religiouscom-munitiesalsosawvastextentsoftheirlandholdingsexpropriatedunderthetermsoftheLawonAgrarianReformandColonialization(23August1945),undertheslogan»thelandbelongstothepeoplewhoworkit«.Theexpropriationoflandbelonging to religiouscommunitieswas justified invariousways, including theneedtobuildthefutureunityoftheYugoslavnation.Article8oftheAgrarianReformLawstipulatedthemaximumextentofthelandthatcouldbeheldbyreligiouscommunitiesfortheirownneeds,whileeverythingelsebelongedtothestate:»Placesofworship,monasteriesandreligiousinstitu-tionsmay,pursuanttolocalconditions,ineachindividualinstancebepermittedtoretaingardens,vineyards,orchards,meadows,pasturesandforeststoamaximumtotalareaof10hectaresfortheirownuseorforhumanitarianinstitutionsandnationalassociations.Iftheseinstitutionsareofmajorhistoricalimportancethey

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mayretainownershipoveramaximumof30hectaresofcultivableland.«(7)TheprovisionsofthisLawalmostentirelywipedouttheeconomicbasisofthereligious communities,whichwere compelled to surviveon the voluntary con-tributions of their congregations and, to some extent, on state aid. There is agoodexampleofthejustificationforthesemeasures ina lecturegivenbyVasoČubrilović,AgriculturalMinister,writtenfortheSovietembassyinBelgradein1945:»ToanyonewhoknowsalittleaboutinternalrelationsinYugoslaviait isclearthattherecanbenounityamongitspeoplesuntiltheinfluenceofreligioniscurtailedandfocusedsolelyonimmediatereligiousaimsandoperations.Theonlywaytoachievethisistoweakentheeconomic,culturalandpoliticalpowerofthechurchhierarchies.Thisiswhyarangeofmeasuresmustbeintroduced,fromcivilmarriagethroughthesecularizationofeducationtoagrarianreform,soastoreducetheinfluenceofthechurchestotheproperproportions,thatistopreventthemfromraisingfuturegenerationsinYugoslaviaastheyhaveuntilnow,inreli-giousisolationandhatred;thisisoneofthemajorreasonswhyitisnecessarytoapplyagrarianreformtoreligiouslandholdingstoo.«(8)Althoughtheauthoritiesdidnotinprincipledifferentiatebetweenreligiouscom-munities, theirposition in thenewstate, inaddition to thespecific featuresofeachreligiouscommunityandtheirrelationswiththestateauthorities,dependedtoalargeextentoninternalpoliticalrelationsandalsooninternationalpoliticaltrendsintheinternationalstandingenjoyedbyYugoslavia.ThefirststagecanbedefinedaslastingfromtheendofWorldWarIItotheclashwithStalinin1948.During thisperiod the stateauthoritiesattempted,alongwithall themeasuresthey were introducing for the purpose of separating the religious communitiesfromthestate,tofindamodusvivendiwiththerepresentativesofallthereligiouscommunities,avoidingfierceattacksonthecommunities,whethertoconsolidateinternalrelationorbecauseofYugoslavia’sinternationalposition.AsaresultofthebreakwithStalinandthepoliticalsituationasawhole,bothinternaland international, thenextstagewascharacterizedby theuseof toolsandmethodsaimedatconfiningreligiousactivitiessolelytothespiritualdomainandbypressureonthedignitariesofeveryreligiouscommunitytoidentifywiththestateregime.Followingthisstage,whichendedwiththeadoptionofthe1953LawonthePositionofReligiousCommunities(OfficialGazetteofFNRYno.22,27May1953),relationsbetweenthecommunitiesandthestateeasedsomewhatwhenreligiousofficialsweregrantedtorighttosocialandhealthinsurance,free-domtoissuereligiouspublications,andtheintroductionofreligiouseducationinthepremisesofthereligiouscommunities.However,religiouscommunitieswerestillsuccessfullyexcludedfrompubliclifeandrelegatedtothemarginsofsociety.Article8ofthisLawstipulatedthat»Religiouscommunitiesandtheirbodiesarejuristicpersonspursuanttocivillaw.«

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Article174ofthe1974ConstitutionoftheSocialistFederalRepublicofYugo-slavia (SFRY)guaranteed freedomof religion,but treated religionasaprivatematter.Thesamearticlestipulatesthatreligiouscommunitieswereseparatefromthestateandthatitwasunconstitutionaltoabusereligionandreligiousaffairsforpoliticalends.

2. PRESENT SITUATION

In1976thethenSocialistRepublicofBiHadoptedaLawonReligiousCommuni-tieswhichremainsinforceinBosniaandHerzegovinatothisday.TheLawsetoutthefollowingrights:· righttoperformreligiousritesandtoconductreligiousaffairs· righttoprovidereligiouseducation· righttoestablishschoolstotrainpriestsandimams· righttoreligiouspublishing· righttoacquire,holdandownmaterialgoods

AlthoughtheLawisfairlyflexiblegiventhedateofitsadoption,itcanfairlybesaidtobeoutdatedandtohavequiteafewshortcomings.Thesearejustsomeofthem:article2para.2states that»Theprofessionornon-professionofreligion is theprivateaffairoftheindividual.«ReligiouscommunitiesareprohibitedbyArticle6fromanyactivitiesof»generalandparticularsignificance«.Inaddition,religiouscommunitieswerebannedfromsettingupgeneralprivateschools.Article20para.1states:»Religiouscommunitiesmayestablishonlyreli-giousschoolsforthetrainingofreligiousofficials...«Therestrictionsapplicabletoforeignnationalswereparticularlystringent.Article17statesthatforeignnationalsmayattendreligiousmeetingsonlyiftheyreportbeforehandtothemunicipalauthorities.Article22statesthat»Classesinschoolsforthetrainingofreligiousofficialsmaybeconductedonlybynationalsofthestate.«Asregardstheregistrationofnewreligiouscommunities,theLawisfairlyflexible.Thirtyfounders(allnationals)arerequiredforregistrationpurposes,andregistra-tiontakestheformofregisteringwiththemunicipalauthoritiesinthemunicipal-itywherethereligiouscommunityhasitsheadquarters.Inpracticethisoftenledtoproblemsofjurisdiction,withcertainmunicipalitiesnotacceptingregistrationsofnew religious communitiesbecause theyhadnodepartment responsible fordoingso.

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3. LEGAL CONDITIONS – LEGAL SOURCES, CURRENT NORMS, RELIGIOUS FREEDOM AND THE SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE

TheConstitutionofBosniaandHerzegovina,theConstitutionoftheFederationofBiHandtheConstitutionofRepublikaSrpskaalldealseparatelywithfreedomofreligion.

Article2oftheConstitutionofBiHreads:

1.HumanRightsBosniaandHerzegovinaandbothEntities shall ensure thehighest levelofinternationallyrecognizedhumanrightsandfundamentalfreedoms.Tothatend,thereshallbeaHumanRightsCommissionforBosniaandHerzegovinaasprovidedforinAnnex6totheGeneralFrameworkAgreement.

2.InternationalStandardsTherightsandfreedomsset forth in theEuropeanConventionfor thePro-tectionofHumanRightsandFundamentalFreedomsanditsProtocolsshallapplydirectly inBosniaandHerzegovina.Theseshallhavepriorityoverallotherlaw.

3.EnumerationofRightsAllpersonswithintheterritoryofBosniaandHerzegovinashallenjoythehu-manrightsandfundamentalfreedomsreferredtoinparagraph2above;theseinclude:(g)freedomofthought,conscience,andreligion.

Article2oftheConstitutionoftheFederationofBiHreads:

TheFederationwillensuretheapplicationofthehighestlevelofinternation-allyrecognizedrightsandfreedomsprovidedinthedocumentslistedintheAnnextotheConstitution.Inparticular:(1)AllpersonswithintheterritoryoftheFederationshallenjoytherights:(l)tofundamentalfreedoms:freespeechandpress;freedomofthought,con-scienceandbelief;freedomofreligion,includingprivateandpublicworship;freedomofassembly;freedomofassociation,includingtoformandbelongtolabourunionsandthefreedomnottoassociate;andfreedomtowork.

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Article28oftheConstitutionofRepublikaSrpskareads:

Freedomofreligionshallbeguaranteed.

Religious communities shall be equal before the law and shall be free toperformreligiousaffairsandservices.Theymayopenreligiousschoolsandperformreligiouseducationinallschoolsatalllevelsofeducation;theymayengageineconomicandotheractivities,receivegifts,establishlegaciesandmanagethem,inconformitywiththelaw.

TheSerbianOrthodoxChurch shall be the churchof theSerbpeople andotherpeopleofOrthodoxreligion.

TheStateshallmateriallysupporttheOrthodoxchurchandshallcooperatewithitinallfieldsand,inparticular,inpreserving,cherishinganddevelopingcultural,traditionalandotherspiritualvalues.

Paragraphs 3 and 4 of this article have recently been deleted from the RSConstitutionattherequestoftheinternationalcommunity.

4. RELIGIOUS EDUCATION IN SCHOOLS

Religious education is available in all primary schools and some secondaryschoolsintheFederationofBiH.Religiousstudiesareanoptionalsubject,whichmeansthatchildrendonothavetoattendclassesinthesubject,butiftheydoelecttodoso,thesubjectistreatedonanequalfootingwithothersubjects.InRepublikaSrpskachildrenattendreligiouseducationclassesinprimaryschoolbutnotinsecondaryschools.Given that this is ahighly sensitive issue forBiHsociety, theWCRPoffice inSarajevoheldaseriesofroundtables(inBanjaLuka,Tuzla,MostarandSarajevo)followedbyaconferenceonthesubjectofreligiouseducationinpublicschoolsinBiH.Theroundtablesandconferencewereattendedbyrepresentativesofinter-estedgroupssuchasreligiouscommunities,politicalparties,governmentinstitu-tions,non-governmentalorganizations,religiousteachers,schoolprincipalsetc.Followingtheconference,theviewwastakenthatreligiouseducationcouldplayapositiveroleintheeducationandupbringingofschoolchildren,butthatthreeissuesmustbetakenintoconsideration.First,pupilsortheirparentsmusthavetheright tochoosewhether theywillattendreligiouseducationclassesornot.Noonemaybecompelledtoattendreligiouseducationclassesagainsthisorherwill.Second,thebackgroundandqualificationsofreligiousteachersmustmeet

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thegeneralstandardsrequiredofteachers.Theymaybeappointedbyreligiouscommunities,butmustbe trained teachers.Andthird, thecurriculummustbedesignedwithdue regard for religious toleranceand includematerialonotherreligionsinBiH.These are some of the conclusions reached by participants in the conference,whichwasheldinMostar:· religious education in the current BiH education system is confessionally-

based;· the subject of religious studies in schools is not in question and has no

alternative;· thesubjectofreligiousstudiesshouldbetreatedequallywithothersubjects

(timetables, marking, inclusion in average grades, employment status ofreligiousteachersetc.);

· religiousstudiesshouldbeanoptionalsubject;· thebasicobjectivesofreligiousstudiesare(a)toinform,and(b)toguideand

form;· religiouscommunitiesandchurchesshoulddraftcurriculaandtherelevant

ministriesshouldcheckthem;· thethreeessentialcomponentsofthecurriculuminreligiousstudiesare:

- briefhistory- theessenceofthetheologicalconcept- theethicalframework

· otherreligionsmustbereferredtoinanauthenticandappropriatemanner;· itisrecommendedthatreligiousstudiestextbooksbecopy-editedbytwokinds

ofeditors:- theologicallycompetentpeople- expertsinteachingmethods

5. RELIGION IN THE MASS MEDIA

TheattitudeofthemostinfluentialmediatowardsreligioninBosniaandHerze-govinaisanextremelycomplexproblemthatisdependentonanumberoffactors.Prominentamongtheseistheattitudeofpoliticians,politicalpartiesandotherpoliticalfactors,whichcommonlyseetheotheranddifferentashostile;lackofknowledgeofothers;subordinationtostereotypesandtohistorical»truths«thataresetinconcrete,modelsinheritedfromtheformersystemrelatingtotheOther;theindifferenceofpublicopinionandthelackofcommitmentbythegeneralpub-lictoimprovingthegeneralsocialatmosphere.Giventhattheinformationpro-videdbythemediaisalmostalwaystakenforgrantedasthedefinitivetruth,weregarditasveryimportanttobringtotheforefronttheattitudeoftheairmediain

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ourcountrytowardsuniversalreligiousvaluesingeneral,particularlyinthecon-textofbuildingharmoniousrelationsinthesocietyofBosniaandHerzegovina.It issuggestivethatfortheairmediainBiHtheonlysubjectthat isof interestisformalreligiousobservance,particularlyEidandFridayprayers,althoughthemandatoryformalprayersarethemostintimateelementofreligiousmanifesta-tion,whileforthemajorityofso-calledindependentmagazinesandperiodicalsthesubjectsthatareofgreatestinterestarethosethatareimbuedwithmundanepoliticalconcerns.Sinceourcountryhasagreatmanyprivateradioandtelevisionbroadcasters,theyfill–notalwaysinthemostdesirableway–themediavacuumas regards religious issues. There are broadcasters who degrade and folklorizereligious doctrines by their inappropriate treatment and unselective approach.Wehavenodoubtthatamoreseriousapproachtothemediatreatmentoffun-damentalreligiousvaluescouldcontributetoestablishingmoreharmoniousrela-tionswithinthefamilyandsocietyandbetweendifferentreligionsinBosniaandHerzegovina.AnexampleofthisistheBHRadio1religiousprogramme,whichreceives frequent accolades from listeners, and the FTV Mosaic programme,whichisunfortunatelybroadcastataveryunattractivetimeofday.Religiousandnationalrelationsinourcountryareoftenhighlytingedwithemotion,soitisofthegreatestimportancetohighlightinthemediathesubjectsthatleadtowardsabetterunderstandingbetweenthefollowersofthesameaswellasofdifferentreli-gionsandtraditions.Theuniversalvaluesofreligionarefundamentalhumanval-ues,andunlesstheyareaccordedtheirfullworthanddulyredefined,oursocietycannotpossiblyfunctionnormally–thiscannotbeemphasizedenough.Aboveall,therefore,themediashouldnotdealonlywithexclusivistand»intriguing«top-icsthatraisedoubtsinthemindsoffollowersofthesamereligion,letalongthoseofdifferenttraditions.(9)InMarchthisyeartheWCRPofficeinSarajevoheldaconferenceonReligionintheMediainBiH,whichwasattendedbyrepresentativesofthereligiouscommu-nitiesandjournalists,whotookanactivepart.Therepresentativesofthereligiouscommunitieswereof theview that therearenotenoughreligiousprogrammesorenough journalistsspecializing in thesubject.Journalistscomplainedthat itwassometimeshardtomakecontactwiththereligiouscommunities.Thegeneralimpressiongainedattheconferencewasthatreligioncanandshouldoccupyanimportantplaceinthemedia.

6. LABOUR LAW AND FAMILY LAW

TheLabourLawstipulatesthateveryemployeehastherighttofourdays’leaveforreligiousholidaysineachcalendaryear.Eachemployeehasdiscretiontochoosewhichfourreligiousholidaysheorshewilltreatasnon-workingdays.Twoofthe

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fourdaysarepaidleaveandtwoareunpaidleave.ReligiousmarriagesareoftenenteredintoinBiH.Citizensmayenterintoareli-giousmarriageonlyafteracivilmarriageceremonywiththerelevantstateauthori-ties.Intermsofcivillaw,religiousmarriageshavelegalconsequencesofamoralandreligiouscharacter.

7. FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

Asregardsfuturerelationsbetweenreligiouscommunitiesandthestate,itissafeto say that they will be defined consistent with European standards. The onlyunresolvedissuesisjusthowmuchinfluencethespecificfeaturesofBosniaandHerzegovina’ssocietywillhaveonthedefinitionofthoserelations.

8. DRAFT LAW IN REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA

ThedraftLawonreligion,churchesandreligiouscommunitiesinRepublikaSrp-skahasbeendrawnupbytheMinistryofReligionofRepublikaSrpskaonthebasisofaninitialdraftbyDr.KostaČavoški.Thebillhasnotyethadanyreadingsinparliament,letalonebeenpassed.Someofthearticlesreadasfollows:

III.Equalityofthehistoricallyestablishedchurchesandreligiouscommunities.

Article3.TheSerbianOrthodoxChurch,theRomanCatholicChurch,andtheIslamicandJewishreligiouscommunities,ashistoricallyestablishedspiritualcommu-nitiesinRepublikaSrpska,areequalineveryrespectbeforethelaw.

Article7.Churchesandreligiouscommunitiesautonomouslymanageandfreelydisposeoftheirproperty,fundsandendowmentswithintheconfinesofcurrentlaw.Churchesandreligiouscommunitiesandtheircomponentelementsandinsti-tutionsmaywithoutanyrestrictionscollectcontributions,receivelegaciesandestablishfundsandendowmentsforthepurposeofrenovationorconstructionofplacesofworship,monasteries,religiousschoolsandcharitableinstitutions,theeducationofpriestsandreligiousofficials,andotherreligiouscharitableorbenevolentpurposesorpurposespleasingtoGod.Churchesandreligiouscommunitiesandtheircomponentelementsand in-stitutionsmay,withintheconfinesofthelaw,performcommercialorotherprofit-makingactivitiesforthebenefitoftheirownmaintenance.

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Thepropertyofchurchesandreligiouscommunities shallbeusedonly fortheirownpurposesandmaynotunderanycircumstancesbeexpropriatedorusedforanyotherpurposes,otherthanincasesofexpropriationprovidedforbylawandinexchangeforpropercompensation.

VI.Legalsubjectivityofchurchesandreligiouscommunities.

Article8.ChurchesandreligiouscommunitiesasdefinedinArticle8ofthisLawandtheir individual component elements and institutions provided for in theirownconstitution,canonorstatutehavethestatusofjuristicpersonswithalltherightsappertainingthereto,suchas theacquisitionofmovableandrealproperty,therighttodisposeoftheirownproperty,theacquisitionofrightsandobligations,etc.Other religiouscommunitiesmayoperateascitizens’ associationsprovidedtheyaresoregisteredpursuanttotheLawonCitizens’Associations.Thepublicandprivatelegalinterestsofchurchesandreligiouscommunitiesbeforethestateauthoritiesandthirdpartiesshallberepresentedbyauthorizedexecutiveofficersasstipulatedbytheirconstitution,canonlaworstatute.

VII.Religiousschoolsandreligiouseducation

Schoolsandinstitutionsofhighereducationmaybeestablished;inordinaryschools religious studies shall be taught consistent with the principles andcanonsof theSerbianOrthodoxChurch,RomanCatholicChurch, IslamicReligious Community and Jewish Community, as the case may be; the ap-pointmentofreligiousteachers,curricula,textbooksandotherteachingaidsforreligiousstudiesshallbebyagreementwiththehigherauthoritiesoftherelevantchurchorreligiouscommunity(Articles9and10).

ThisisnottheplacetoraiseindetailtheissueofthedegreetowhichthisdraftlawisconsistentwiththeprovisionsoftheDaytonConstitutionofBiH.However,itisclearthatitdoesnotconformtoEuropeanlegislation,asisalsothecasewiththeLawontheLegalPositionofReligiousCommunitiesofSRBiH,whichisdejurestillinforce.(10)Draft Law on Freedom of Religion and the Legal Position of Religious Com-munitiesandChurchesinBosniaandHerzegovinaagreedbytheInter-religiousCouncilinBosniaandHerzegovina.The members of the Inter-Religious Council of BiH (IRCBiH) are dissatisfiedwiththelegislationcurrently inforceinBiH,the1976LawonReligiousCom-

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munities.InthisregardthemembersoftheIRCcametothedecisionthatchangewasneeded,and to thisend formed theLegalExperts’Group,whichdrewuptheproposeddrafttextoftheLaw.Thetextdefinesissuesrelatingtofreedomofreligion,thelegalstatusofchurchesandreligiouscommunities,theregistrationofreligiouscommunitiesandchurches,andtherelationshipbetweenreligiouscom-munitiesandthestate.TheproposeddrafttextoftheLawconformstoEuropeanstandardsonfreedomofreligion.ThetextoftheLawhasbeenagreedbythemembersoftheInterreligiousCouncilofBiH.ThetextwasdrawnupbytheLegalExperts’Group(PEG),comprisingprominentlawyersfromthefourtraditionalreligiouscommunitiesandchurches(the Islamic Community, the Serbian Orthodox Church, the Roman CatholicChurchandtheJewishCommunity).OtherreligiouscommunitiesandChurchesinBosniaandHerzegovinahavebeenconsultedaswell.ThemembersofthePEGare:Mr.MuhamedSalkić,Mr.EdahBećirbegović(TheIslamicCommunity),FatherVanjaJovanović,FatherNemanjaDražić(SerbianOrthodox Church), Ms. Ljiljana Zita, Mons. Franjo Tomašević, Mr. TomislavLucić(RomanCatholicChurch),Mr.JamesL.Cairns,Prof.ColeDurham,Mr.AhmedŽilić,Mr.EmirKovačević(WCRP).HereIshallsetoutsomeofthebasicprinciplesbywhichthemembersoftheLegalExperts’GroupwereguidedwhendraftingtheproposedLaw:1. All religiouscommunitiesandchurchesareequal inrightsandobligations,

withoutdiscriminationonanybasiswhatsoever;2. In relation to legal standards in future legislation, in place of the phrase

»religious communities«, the phrase »religious communities and churches«shallbeused;

3. Thetitleofreligiouscommunitiesandchurchesasdefinedintheir internalstatutory(constitutional,canonic)regulationsshallbetheirsoleofficialtitleinBosniaandHerzegovina;

4. Each religious community and church shall independently define its owninternal organization by its statutory (constitutional, canonic) and otherinternalregulations;

5. Thecontinuityofthelegalpersonalityofthehistoricreligiouscommunitiesand churches in Bosnia and Herzegovina shall be recognized: the IslamicCommunity inBosniaandHerzegovina, theSerbianOrthodoxChurch, theCatholicChurchandtheJewishCommunity;

6. AllreligiouscommunitiesandchurchesinBosniaandHerzegovinashallhavethestatusoflegalperson;

7. All other religious communities and churches in Bosnia and Herzegovinaheretoforerecognizedshallretaintheirlegalpersonality;

8. NewlyformedreligiouscommunitiesandchurchesinBosniaandHerzegovina

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shallalsobeabletoobtainlegalpersonality(belegalized);9. Religiouscommunitiesandchurchesareseparatefromthestate;10.Religious communities and churches may found charitable, educational,

commercial and other profit-making organizations in conformity with thelawsofthestateofBosniaandHerzegovinaandinternationallaw;

11.Religious communities and churches own property, freely use, enjoy andadministerit,andmayacquirenewproperty;

12.All religious communities and churches have the right to restitution ofexpropriatedproperty.

Thedraftcansafelybesaidtoupholdthetheoryoftheseparationofreligiouscommunitiesand the stateand the»theoryofadjustmentandcooperation«bywhichthestateandreligiouscommunitiesmayassistoneanotheraslongasthechurchdoesnotfavouranyreligiouscommunityoverothersintheprovisionofaid.ThedraftiscurrentlyunderconsiderationbytheMinistryforHumanRightsoftheCouncilofMinistersofBiH,whichhasagreedtobetheformalproposerofthebill.

9. ENDNOTES

1. AhmedAlibašić,»Modeliuređenjaodnosaizmeđudržaveivjerskihzajednicau Evropi i SAD i njihove konsekvence«, Znakovi vremena vol. 3, no. 9-10(2000),142-43.

2. EnesDurmišević, »Šerijetskopravo inaukašerijatskogpravauBiHuprvojpolovini 20. stoljeća«, doctoral dissertation, Faculty of Law, University ofSarajevo,2003.

3. RadmilaRadić,Državaivjerskezajednice1945-1970,Belgrade:InstitutefortheModernHistoryofSerbia,2002,Vol.I,pp.195-196.

4. EnesDurmišević,ibid.5. RadmilaRadić,ibid,Vol.II,pp.639-640.6. EnesDurmišević,ibid.7. RadmilaRadić,ibid,Vol.I,p.180.8. Ibid.,Vol.I,p.179.9. NedžadGrabus,»Religijaumedijima«,paperpresentedattheconferenceon

ReligionandtheMedia,Sarajevo,2003.10.Ahmed Žilić, »Pravni status vjerskih zajednica u BiH«, paper presented to

WCRP,Sarajevo,1999

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IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies in Ljubljana analyses events in Iran in the light of American and Russian secret diplomacy on both sides of the Persian Gulf. The most important and interesting sections of the compre-hensive analysis are given below.

AMERICAN BASES IN IRAN – RUSSIAN BASES IN SAUDI ARABIA?

Dataonthestate:· Officialname:IslamicRepublicofIran.· Area:1,648,000km2,population:68.960.000.· IranbordersonAfghanistan(639km),Turkmenistan(992km),Azerbajan

(611km),Armenia(35km),Turkey(499km),Iraq(1.458km)andPakistan(909km).

· Thecoastis2440kmlong,740ofwhichistheCaspianSea,therestisthePersianGulfandtheArabianSea.

· Ethnic structure: Persians 51%, Azeri Turks 24%, Kurds 7%, Gelaki andMazanderani 8%,Arabs3%,Luri 2%,Balochi 2%,Turkmen1%andothers1%.

· Languages:Persian(official),Turkish,Kurdish,Luri,BalochiandArabic.· Religiousstructure:Muslims99%,ofwhichShiites89%,Sunnites10%,Jews,

Christians,Bahayiandothers1%.· Administrativeregulationofthestate:28provinces.· Economy(datafrom1999):GDP$347.6billion,externaldebt$21.9billion,

GDPpercapita$5,300andoilstocks99billionbarrels.· Workingpopulation:15.4millionofwhich21%areemployedinagriculture,

34%inindustryand45%inservices.Unemployment:25%.· Import:$346billion.· Export:$34,9billion.· Mainforeigntradepartners:Germany,Japan,FranceandItaly.· Transportinfrastructure:railway5600km,roads140.200kmofwhich49.440

asphaltand74kmmotorways,inlandwaterways904km.Airports:288,ports:15.

· Pipelines:forcrudeoil5900km,forderivatives3900km,fornaturalgas4550km.

· Armedforces:545.600ofwhich350,000footsoldiers,20,600navy,50,000airforce.

· Warbudget:$5,787billion.· Political system: The main characteristic of Iranian political system is

the diversity and numerousness of the seven branches of power whose

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competenceandauthorityinterweaves.Allthebranchesofpowerareunderultimateauthorityof(Murshid)AyatollahAliKhameneiwhowaschosenforthesupremereligiousleaderattheAssemblyofExpertson6thofApril1989.Thebranchesofpowerare:- Murshid- Tthe executive power: Mohammad Khatamy has been president of the

statesince3August1997- The Parliament counts 290 deputies elected at general elections; the

reformershave70%oftheseatsor170deputiesandtheconservatives30%ofdeputyseatsintheParliament

- Judicialpower- AssemblyofExperts- SupremeNationalSecurityCouncil- GuardianCouncil

· Politicalparties:8.· Independentorganisationsofthecivilsociety:12.

SincethefallofSaddamHussein,theIranianpoliticianshavebecomeawareoftheurgencyforareformnotonlyinthepoliticalsystembutincludingarevisionoftheall-embracingroleofIraninthe»newworldregulation«followingthegreatchangesintheMiddleEast.Sincehewaselectedpresidentin1997,Khatamyhasbeenawareoftheurgencyforreformsand,afterafiercestrugglewiththeconservativeside,managedtogetsupportforsomeradicalreformsespeciallyinthedomesticpoliticalfieldinclud-ing: freedomofmedia,opening towards thewestEuropeancountriesafter thecrisisinrelationsfollowingtheMykonosaffairconcerningGermany.TheloudestcallforreformscomesfromTehran.On7thofMay2003,153reform-erdeputiespresentedapubliclettertotheParliamentwarningtheconservativeswhohavestrongcontrolandadecisiveroleintheotherbranchesofpowerthattheymayawaitthedestinyofSaddamHusseinunlesstheyagreetoproceedwiththereformsintheIraniandomesticandforeignpolicy.Thereformersdemandedurgentchanges inforeignpolicy inordertoestablishrelationswithallcountries–amongothersalsotheUSA,astheAmerican-Iranianrelationshavebeenaprohibitedissuesincethediplomaticrelationsbetweenthetwostateswerediscontinuedafter theoccupationof theAmericanembassy inTehranbythestudentsin1980–thisistheburningissueofdiscussionsinthefieldofdomesticaffairs.AsthefirststepinestablishingthedialoguewiththeUSA,thereformersproposedirectquadripartite(theUSA,Iran,Iraq,theUN)talksregardingthefutureregu-lationofIraq.ThisisthefirsttimeaftertheIslamicrevolutionin1979thatthe

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USAandIrantakepartindirecttalks.Thereformersareawareofseriousnessofthesituationandofurgencyofthedia-loguewiththe»GreatSatan«astheUSAhavebeencalledfortwodecades.ThereformersstressthefactthatalthoughIrandoesnotbordergeographicallyontheUSA,the lattergoverntwoneighbouringcountries(AfghanistanandIraq)andarealsopresentinTurkey,CentralAsiaandthePersianGulf.PresidentKhatamystartedcarryingoutreformswithdifferentintensitysoonaftertakingoverthepowerin1997whichhascausedunfriendlyattitudeofhisvoters.In2005hewillstandasacandidateforthesecondtermofoffice.Thepresidenthas the majority in the Parliament but the control mechanisms, i.e. unlimitedandfinalpoweroftheotherfivebranchesofpower(1.,4.,5.,6.and7.)renderhis position difficult. Those branches are controlled by the conservatives whohavethepowertopreventfinaladoptionofanylegislativedocumentalthoughitwasalreadypassedintheParliament.Theofficeofthegreatreligiousleader,theGuardianCouncilandtheAssemblyofExpertshavelegislativepowertowhollyorpartlystopanylegislativeactoftheParliamentorthepresidentofthestate.PresidentKhatamyproposesradicallegislativereformsinordertoenablethesys-temoreachbranchofpowertoactindependentlywithinitslegislativeframework.HepresentedtwoproposalswhichwereadoptedintheParliament.Thefirstleg-islativechangewastoextendthepowerofthepresidenttodefendthelegislationwithoutimpedimentsandlimitationsoftheSupremeCourt.Thesecondlegisla-tivechangeisrelatedtothelawonelectionsandsuggeststhattheelectionsystemshouldnotbeinfluencedbytheGuardianCouncil.AnotherimportantpublicappealwasexpressedinTehranin2003,butthistimeitdidnotcomefromthepresidentofthestateortheParliamentbutfromagroupofintellectualswhohavewarnedbymeansofapublicletterofthedangerthreaten-ingIran.Someintellectualsdemandthatstudentsandjournalistswhoareprison-ersofstatebereleasedandthatthepoweroftheCouncilofLegislationGuardiansbe limited.TheirappealhasraisedthetemperatureonthestreetsofTehranasneverbeforeandnowboth the reformersand theconservativesareaware thataworst-casescenariomaycometrueunless thestatechanges itsdomesticandforeignpolicy.ThefirstreactionswereexpressedbytheconservativeleaderAliAkbarHashemiRafsanjani,formerpresidentofthestateandpresentpresidentoftheconservativeGuardianCouncilwhobelievesthattheestablishmentofrela-tionsbetweentheUSAandIranareaprioritytaskandproposesareferendumtobecarriedoutonthisissue.Theresultsofsuchreferendumarealreadyknown–over80%ofthecitizenswouldvoteinfavourofestablishingrapidlydiplomaticrelationswithWashington.TheofficialreactionofAmericanadministrationisrathervague.Ithasonlybeenconfirmed that secret talksaregoingon inGeneva.However, therehavebeen

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someunofficialreactionsexpressedbyinfluentialinstitutionsintheUSA:on6thofMay2003, theAmericanEnterpriseInstituteorganisedaconferenceonthefutureofIranwhichwasattendedbytheprominentrepresentativesofAmericanpoliticsand Iranianexiles in theUSA,amongothersRepublicanSenatorSamBrownback,memberofthecommitteeforforeignaffairs.BrownbackappealedtotheadministrationsayingthatthepeopleofIranaretheirallyinthedemocrati-sationofIranandstatedthathehadproposalsforseverallegislativedocumentswhichhewouldpresenttheCongressforadoption,amongotherstheIranDemoc-racyActwhichcanbecomparedwiththeIraqLiberationAct,1998.The strongest reactions come from the Neo-Conservatives who have the realpowerintheAmericanadministration.Theinfluentialpolitician,WilliamKristolin an article entitledTheEndof theBeginningpublished inWeeklyStandardanalysestheAmericanvictoryinIraqasthebeginningofthegreatwaragainstterrorism.Kristol defines the Middle East and Islamic world as the core of the problemwhileNorthKoreadoesnotrepresentagravethreatandcanbeisolatedwithdip-lomaticmoves.ItisIranthatKristolforeseesasthenextfightfordemocratisationintheMiddleEast,althoughhehopesthatthisfightwillnotbeintheformofawarbutthecombinationofnationaldiplomacyandsecretoperations.Thethirdimportantreactionwasexpressedon7thofMay2003inMoscowbytheAmericanstatesecretaryassistantJohnBolton,whodemandedfromRussiatostopsupplyingnucleartechnologytoIran.Bolton’sreactionisveryimportantsinceitcomesfromMoscowwheretheIFIMESdiplomaticanalystshavenoticedthecoolingofrelationsbetweenRussiaandIranandatthesametimethewarmingofrelationsbetweenRussiaandSaudiArabiafollowingthevisitofSaudiForeignMinister,SaudAlfaisal,toMoscowon9thofMay2003,preliminarytothevisitofthecrownprinceAbdullahtoMoscowinthecomingweeks.SaudiArabiawasthetraditionalallyoftheUSAsincetheestablishmentoftheKingdomin1921tilltheterroristattacksontheUSAinwhich15Saudisuicidalterroriststookpart.RussiawouldliketofillthevacuuminSaudiArabiasincetheroleofAmericanstherenotsoimportantanymoreafterthefalloftheTalibsandSaddamHussein.TheSaudishavebeengivingseriousthoughttoallowingtheRussianscertainadvantagesintheirportsasthebeginningofmilitaryco-operation.TheIFIMESInstitutebelievesthatIranisataturningpoint.Asregardsthein-ternalaffairs, theparliamentaryandpresidentialelectionsare tobeheldsoon.Relationsbetweentheconservativesandthereformersarebecomingincreasinglystrained.Asfarastheforeignpolicyissuesareconcerned,theAmericanarmedforceshavesurroundedIranalmostatallsides.IranisunderconstantpressureoftheUSAandthedemandsforthedemocratisationofthestateandrevisionofforeignpolicy.

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Underthoseconditionstherehavebeensomepositivemovesonbothsides.On11thMay2003,theAmericansdisarmedandgainedcontroloftheterroristgroupMudjahidinKhalqwhichhadhaditsbaseinIraqfor20years.PresidentKhatamyvisitedBeirutinordertodefinetheroleoftheLebaneseShiiticorganisationHez-bollahwhichthreatensIsraelandthepeaceprocessintheMiddleEast.TheIFIMESInstituterecommendstheUSAtocontinueitspolicyofexercisingpressureonTeheransincesuchactionsofWashingtonwillundoubtedlyencour-agereformforcesinIranandlettheconservativesknowthattheymayawaitthesamedestinyastheIraqiregimeunlesstheycontinuewiththereforms.Atthesametime,theIFIMESInstituteproposestheIranianleaderstosendmorepositivemessagestoWashingtonsuchasto:· Not interfere any more in the internal regulation of Iraq and to establish

disciplineintheSCIRI.· Re-establishrelationswithSyriaandsupportpeacefulrelationsbetweenSyria

andIsrael.· Contribute to regulating the situation in south Lebanon which is not

controlledbytheLebanesearmybutbythemembersoftheHezbollahmilitiawhoreceivematerialandmilitarysupportfromIran.

· StopsupportingradicalPalestinianorganisationssuchasHamasandJihadandtoestablishadialoguewiththenewlyelectedPalestinianPrimeMinisterMahmudAbas.ThiswouldbeaveryusefulmoveandacontributiontothesuccessfulbeginningoftherealisationoftheAmericanRoadMapPlan.

· IranshouldunconditionallyallowtheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgencytocontrolthedisputednuclearfacilities.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na has been regularly analyzing the events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES is analyzing the causes for the emergence of terrorism with an emphasis on the culture of hatred, ideological terrorism, school systems and the media.

THE MIDDLE EAST: REARING FOR TERRORISM?

ThewaveofterroristattacksthathaveinMay2003quiteshakentheMiddleeast,isjustabeginningofanoutbreakofthe»middle-easternvolcano«,inwhichnoonewillfeelsafeintheMiddleEastandinEurope.TheAmericanPresidentGeorgeBushhasstatedthattheU.S.A.willbechasingtheterroristsintoeverydarkcor-ner.ThesameterroriststhatwerementionedbyBush,arenowchasingtheU.S.A.oneverybrightspotoftheMiddleEast,whichmayoccurinfutureinEuropeaswell.TheterroristsfornowarenotconsideringattackswithintheUnitedStatesbutwillbeattackingAmericaninterestsintheMiddleEastandinEuropeinordertodragEuropeintosomething,Europehasnodesirefor,sinceEuropedoesnotconcurnorwiththeactsofAmericaneitherwiththeactsoftheterrorists.Therearemanycausesforterrorism.Theyoriginatefromtheknownfactsconnectedtothepoliticalsystems,religioushierarchiesandtheoverallsocialconditionofthesocietyingeneral.Wearetryingtoanalyzecertainsegmentsofthisphenomenon,whichwill serveonlyasan introduction to furtherextensiveanalyzingofeachparticularsegment.

1. THE CULTURE OF HATRED

Whenthecultureofhatredreachesapeak inacertainsociety, then fascistoidpolitical organizations, ready to exterminate whole ethnic or religious groupssimplybecausetheyarenotoftheirfaithorrace(anexampleofGermanyandtheHolocaust).ThesameholdsfortheMiddleEast:withintheatmosphereofhatredtowardstheregimeshatredtowardstheWesthasdeveloped,especiallytowardstheU.S.A.,theonlywesternsuper-power.RadicalIslamicorganizationsacrosstheMiddleEastthatpromotetheideaofhatredandkilling,werenotbornovernightanddonotrepresentakindofRE-actionontheAmericanpoliticstowardstheregion.TheEuropeanpoliticianswouldliketoputalltheblameexclusivelyontheU.S.A.,butthattheoryisinsufficientandillintended.CausesfortheformationofsuchorganizationsgobacktothetimeafterWWII,whentheEuropeancolonizers(GreatBritain,France,Spain,etc.)lefttheMiddleEastandapoliticalvacuumwascreated.Formercolonizersrelinquishedtheareaintothehandsofmilitaryjuntas,triballeadersandsheikhsandtopresidentsfor

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life.Andlet’snottalkaboutthehistoricalinjusticedonetoseveralpeoples,suchasforexampletheKurds,theCopts,theEritreans,peoplesofSouthernSudan,theBerbers,etc.).TheconditionoftheMiddleEastaftertheWWIIcanbedescribedinonewordasdisastrous.TheArabswerenotonlyfourtimes(inwar)defeatedbyIsrael,butthemainblowcamefromthelocalleadersthemselves,whoreturnedtheireconomies,educationalsystemandsocialservicestothelevelofthebegin-ningofthecentury.Theserulershaveusedthenationaltreasuriesforemostforinternalwarsagainsttheirowncitizens.InsuchmannerhaveforexampleIraq,Yemen,Jordan,Lebanon,Sudan,Algeriaandothersbeenbuildinglargemansionsandpalacesinperiod,whenmostoftheircitizenswereunemployedwithoutanysocialrightsandbenefitswithinadditiontothatatotallyinadequateeducationalsystems.AnditisthisatmosphereofdefeatthathasbeenafterwardsgivingbirthtoradicalIslamicorganizations,whichchoseterrorismasameantoachievetheirdark goals.Theplaceof formationof suchorganizationswasmostlymosquesandIslamiccenters,financedwithpetrodollars.Theseorganizationshaveafter-wardsverysuccessfullyenteredthemedia,schoolsystem,artsandculture,etc.Theyareliterallycontrollingthepaceofthesecountries.Theirpowerisderivingfromthealliancewithreligiousleadersandbillionsofdollars,thoughofficiallyintendedtohumanitarianmissionandpurpose.GreatestencouragementfortheseorganizationscamewiththevictoryofKhomeiniIslamicrevolutioninIranandtheestablishmentoftheIslamicrepublicin1979.TheleadersofIranintroducedanewpoliticalterm:»theexportofIslamicrevolution«.ThusthegoalofalltheseorganizationseverywherewhereitwaspossiblebecametheestablishmentofanIslamicstate.Thiswasnecessarilyfollowedbygreatconflictamongtheseorgani-zationsandArableadersthatweresupported/abusedbytheirwesternallieswithapurposeofkeepingquiettheirpeoplesinorderofpreservingtheirownthrones.Of course, a bloody countdownof the regimes against theseorganizations fol-lowed(inEgypt,Jordan,Algeria,SaudiArabia).Theterroristshaveunilaterallydeclared a holly war against the new crusaders, being the West and of courseagainsttheUSAasasymbolandaleaderoftheWest.Unfortunately,theWesttoleratedtheirundergroundactivitiesinthenameofrespectingthehumanrights.AlKaidaterroristswerepreparingterroristattacksontheU.S.A.onSeptember11thfromLondon,Hamburg,ParisandBrusselsandhavebysuchpassedallthelimitsofAmericantolerance.Andnotonlytowardssuchorganizations,butalsotowardsallthecountries,thatareinthisortheotherwaysupportingterrorism(USattackonAfghanistanandIraq).Theoptimistsaresayingthattheterroristsareaminority,whichiscorrect,butthequestionisraised,whetheritwasn’ttheminoritiesthathaveinthepastplantedabombhereandthereandwhetheritwasn’tthepeoplethatbelongedtotheminor-ity,whotoppledthegovernmentinthepastthroughamilitarycoup?

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Ifweanalyze themore recenthistoryof theMiddleEast,wecan see that thesyndromeofradicalismisreoccurringwithincertaintemporalandgeographicalintervals,whentheseideasspreadwithspeedandinfectthewholeareainthere-gion.Thegovernmentsinsuchcasesdealwiththesegroupsferociously,butonlyinamilitarysense.Theythereforecutonlythetrunkwithoutdestroyingtherootsofthesephenomenaalsoonascientificandsociologicallevel.Andthereforeonthesesame»roots«againandagainspringevenworsegroups,whicharenothesi-tatingintheirchoiceofmethodsinfightingthegovernmentsonly,butalsothecountriessupportingtheseregimes,U.S.A.forinstance.

2. IDEOLOGICAL TERRORISM

ThingsthatoccurredonSeptember11th2002inNewYorkandlateron,onBali,inMombassa,Riyadh,Casablanca,etc.,withoutevenmentioningtheevents inIsrael,cancalmlybecalled»ideologicalterrorism«.Therootsofideologicalter-rorismarecomingfromseveralIslamicgroups,suchasBAATHinIraqandSyriaasanideological-politicalmovementandAlKaidaasareligious-politicalmove-ment,originatingintheWahabiteteachings.Nottheleast,tothesewecouldaddtheuntouchabledivinecultsofthepresidentsforlifeandkings(Iraq,Syria,Iran,SaudiArabia,Egypt,Indonesia,etc.).Ideologicalterrorismdealsviolentlywitheveryonethatistryingtothinkdifferent-lythanthesystem.ThusitispermittedtokilleveryconvertedMuslim–murtedandtoconfiscatehispropertyandalreadytheliberalmindedareconsideredcon-verts,whichisanabuseoftheterm.TheideologicalterrorismisdescribingeveryChristianasacrusaderandeveryJewasaZionist,whoneedstobekilled.According to theopinionof the International Institute IFIMES thedangerousideas of the ideological terrorism cannot be rooted out with prison and deathpenalties,butonlyonthebasisofatolerantdialoguebetweenthegovernmentsandthecivilsocietyorganizations.

3. SCHOOL SYSTEM

Theschoolsystemineveryadvancedcountryrepresentsoneofthepillarsofna-tionalsecurity.Progressinschoolsystemmeansprogressinallareasoflife.ThedataoftheWorldBankandUNESCOshowthattheArabcountriesyearlyspendfortheeducationalsystemalmostthesameamountofmoneyastheUSA,Eu-rope,CanadaandJapan.TheAmericansspend5.5%oftheirGNPoneducation,whiletheArabcountries,accordingtothedataoftheArabLeague,spend5.8%(exceptionalareMoroccowith20%andAlgeriawith30%).Butthelackofproperplanningbroughttocatastrophicresults.Forexample,aquarterofamillionof

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Egyptianswithhigheducationisunemployed!Similarly,inSaudiArabia20%ofthecitizensarewithoutemployment.TheinstitutionforfollowingthepeaceeffectsCMIPthatispromotingpeaceandtoleranceamongnationsandcitizensanalyzedtheschoolbooksinIsrael,Pales-tinianAutonomousRegion,Egypt,SyriaandinSaudiArabia,cametoadatumthatmostofthesebooksdescribeIslamastheonlytruefaithandthattheWestisresponsibleforallthefailuresoftheIslamicworldandthatthedangeriscomingfromthewesternculturesandwesternideologicalinfluence.Theschooltextsarethemostimportantmeanswithwhicheverynationnotonlytransmitsthenurture,butthewholevaluesystemoftheyoungergeneration.Herewecanseehowtherootsofterrorismdevelop-growactuallyinschools,wherethefirstrecruitmentoftherecruits-futureterroristsoccurs.

4. THE MEDIA

IlliteracyintheMiddleEastisexperiencingaterriblegrowthandthenumberofilliteratepeople isexceeding65millioninhabitants.Another interestingandascatastrophic fact is that lessand less literatepeople readnewspapersand thusknowlessandlessabouttheeventsoutsidetheirowncountries.Intheyear1985theArabworldconsumed3,3kgofnewspaperper1000inhabitants,whileintheyear1995thisconsumptionfellto2,7kg.AtthesametimeinEuropethecon-sumptionofnewspaperrosefrom55,7kgupto82,2kgper1000inhabitantsoftheOldcontinent.TheflowoffreethinkingArabicmediafromtheWesttotheArabstatesisduetothecensorshipalmostimpossible,withanexceptionofthosefinancedbythemid-dle-easternregimes.SuchanexampleisthedailynewspaperAlQuds,publishedinLondonandpromotingthe ideasofSaddamHusseinandYaserArafat.ThepeoplesoftheMiddleEastthirstfor independentmediathataretoleratingthediversityandarediscussingthedailylifeofthecitizens.TheSaudinewspaperAlWatan,foundedin2000,wasthefirstliberalnewspaperinSaudiArabiaandhasbecomeagatheringpointforthereformersthatwishtofighttheideasofterror-isminthestate,inwhichtheteachingsofIbnTaimia(thefatheroftheWahabitemovement)aretheconstitutionofthestate.Theeditor-in-chiefJamalKhashogchijehasafterthebombattacksinRiyadhintheeditorialof theAlWatanwroteforthe localcircumstancesarevolutionaryarticlewithatitle»IsIbnTaimiamoreimportantthanthepersonandthehome-land?«Khasogchiwasonthe27thofMay2003deposed!Accordingtotheopin-ionoftheInternationalInstituteIFIMESthedemocratizationoftheNearEastisapreconditionforreformingtheentiresocietyandtofinallysettleaccountswiththeterrorism.Withoutafreedomofthoughtthereisnoreforms.Americanun-

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dersecretaryfortheFarEastWilliamBurnshasonthe23rdofMay2003namedthreeelementsthatare:· Establishmentandsupportofthecivilsocietyorganizations;· Constructionofthestateoflawandjusticeandfightagainstthecorruption;· Transparentelectionsasanentryintothedemocratizationofthecountry.

AccordingtotheopinionoftheInternationalInstituteIFIMES,theU.S.A.isastheonlysuperpowerpoliticallyandbeforeallmorallyobligedtoactouttheideasthatarebeingpromoted.ThereforetheU.S.A.hastouseallthemeans(financialassistance, credits, isolation and selective punishment, etc.) to accomplish thegoalsthatareintheinterestsofthepeoplesoftheMiddleEastandtheU.S.A.InsuchanatmospheretheU.S.A.willconvinceintheirfavorthemassesandnotthehatedregimes,leftfromthecoldwarperiod.

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IFIMES – The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies in Ljublja-na has been regularly analyzing the events in the Middle East and Balkans. The most interesting sections of the analysis »The Middle-Eastern Region - The Beginning of a Third Phase?« are given below:

THE MIDDLE-EASTERN REGION - THE BEGINNING OF A THIRD PHASE?

With the removalof the intolerantandradicalTalibanmovement the ideologyofterrorismisfarfrombeingremoved.ThiscanbeclearlyshownbythesuicideattacksinIsrael.Totalitarianregimesthatpossessweaponsformassdestructionorhaveknowledgeandtechnologyforitsproductionareverydangerous.Theirdangerliesforemostinthefactthattheyareormaybecomeahotbedforradicalorterroristthinking.Evenifthecountriesdonotincludeterrorismintheirpro-gramsandeveniftheyareconsciouslynotencouragingit,theybyactivitieswithintheirowncountry,bytramplingbasichumanrightscombinedwithbadeconomicresultsandbyallowingreligiousfanaticismsassistandencouragetheterrorism.Theonlypresentglobalsuperpowerbearstheresponsibilitytoreacttosuch,evi-dentlyverydangerous,phenomena.The11thofSeptemberwasonlyoneformofterrorism;itsmostvisibleandresoundingreflection.Nevertheless,thisterrorismcanstartwithdestructionofoilsprings,hinderingoilroutes,destructionofgas-pipesandcaninitsfinalphasebringtheworldeconomyintoanextremelyserioussituation.InIraqitwasthereforenecessarytoachievetheabolitionoftheregimethat isoppressingthepopulation,whichcanquiteeasilyfindconsolationinradicalism,ifnotsolelyinreligious,perhapsinsuchthatisbasedonthehatredtowardsthedevelopedworld.Suchradicalismcanwithitsfanaticalactivitiesthroughterror-istactionsparalyzethesupplyofoilandthusshaketheglobaleconomicsystem.It couldalsobecomeanexample forotheroppressedmassesofpeople in thisregion,adevelopmentthatwouldonlyfurthershaketheglobalpoliticalequilib-rium.InIraqitisthereforenecessarytoestablisharegime,whichwouldinamorecontemporaryandmoredemocraticmannerofferitspopulationmorefreedom,moreperspectivesforabetter lifeandwouldbythusbereducingthepowerofdestructiveideologies.Ofcourse,Iraqcannotbetheonlygoal.Itisnecessarytoestablishapropersitu-ationalsoinSyria,IranandSaudiArabia,butinsmallerGulfStatesaswell.Thisdoesnotmeanthatitwillbenecessarytousethemilitarypoweragain.Perhapsotherwayswillsuffice;perhapsalsosomeregimeswillbecommencingtheproc-essesofdeconstructionbythemselvesandwillbythusenablealessviolenttran-sitionintoamorenormalsituation.Byallmeansitmustbecleartousthatthe

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settlementofconditionsinonlyone(Iraq)orrathertwo(Afghanistanaswell)countriesdoesnotsuffice.Thecriticalmassofdemocracyinthisexplicitlynon-democraticareaiswiththesetwodemocratizationsfarfrombeingmet.ThewholeregionoftheMiddleEastproducesaround25millionbarrelsofoilperday,whichrepresentsapproximatelyathirdoftheworldproduction.SaudiAra-biaisofspecialimportancesincethecountryiswith8,2millionbarrelsofdailyproducedoilitsmainworldproducer,whileatthesametimeservesasthemainIslamicreligiouscenter,afactthatcanbymanyterroristelementsbeabusedfortheirownevilpurposes.Iraniswith3,7millionofdailyproducedoilonthesec-ondplaceamongtheOPECmembers,whilethecountrypossesseshugereservesofnaturalgas.With this,especially interesting for the terroristactivitieswouldbetheStraitofHormuz,throughwhichtravelallthetankersfromIraq,Kuwait,Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and of course Iran, which representsaroundtwofifths(ca.13,6millionbarrelsdaily)oftheworldproduction.Theter-roristscanonthisgeographicalspotcauseanimmediateoilcrisisofglobaldimen-sionswithoutanyneedformodernsophisticatedweaponry.Thepipelineswouldrepresentimportantterroristtargets,asforexampletheSaudieast-westpipeline,theIraq-Turkeypipeline(fromKirkuk)andthepipelinethoughSyria.ItisalsoimportanttomentiontheCaspianreservesofoilandnaturalgas,sinceaccordingtotheestimatestheyaccountforaround15%ofworldreservesandthetransportroutesareorwillbeinlargepartpassingthroughterritories,wheretheconditionsfortheterroristactivitiesarerelativelyconvenient.TheinternationalcommunitydesiresforthesituationinthecountriesinthePer-sianGulfanditsvicinitytochange.Thecommunityobviouslydesiresanestablish-mentofsuchacondition,wherethepowerwouldbeinthehandsofasdemocraticaspossibleregimes,whichwouldinsomemannerbeloyaltotheglobaleconomicsystemandwouldatthesametimeestablishadomesticclimate,whichwouldnotbesuitablefortheactivitiesofterroristorganizations.Strategicallyisthiswholeregionfartooimportanttobelefttochanceandcompleteobstinacy,thewholeeconomicstabilitydependsfartoomuchonthisregionandtheinvestmentsintothisregionhavebeenfartoolarge,aswell.Besidesthedemocratizationandthereductionofapossibilityforterroristactiv-ity,agoalisalsotoreduceapossibilityofsuchmeasuresthatwoulddestabilizethepresentlyrelativelystableworldoileconomy.Namely,Iraqhadbeenincon-nectiontooilsalesleaningtowardsrelinquishingtheAmericandollar,whichismomentarilytheonlycurrencyinoiltrade,andwishedtotradewithothercurren-cies,mostprobablywitheuros.ThisactionwouldthreatentheAmericandollarastheonlyworldreservecurrencyandwouldshakethecurrentworldeconomicsystem.SomereachedtheconclusionsthatthemaingoalsoftheIraqicrisisarethees-

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tablishmentoftheU.S.A.astheonlyglobalhegemony,itsdominationovertheenergyandthereforeimmenseinfluenceontheglobaleconomy.Amoreseriousanalysiscannotprovidesupportforsuchathesis.TheU.S.A.isevennowstrongandinfluentialenoughtoactaloneandtoenforceitshegemonypolicyevenmoreexpressively.DespitethefactthattheStatesarestrongandinfluentialenough,theywereintensivelytalkingtotheUnitedNations,wereseekingcoalitionsofsupportandweretuninginwiththediplomaticinterestsofcountriesthatarenotmembersoftheSecurityCouncil.Itisafact,despitethemanyopposingopinions,thattheU.S.A.hasbeenrespectingtheothermembersoftheinternationalcommunityfarmorethanitinfacthadto.Actually,theU.S.A.wasfoundinfrontofadilemma:whethertorespectthemultilaterallegalarrangementsandbythusriskshakingoftheglobaleconomicandpoliticalsystem(includingthesecuritycomponent)ortoactunilaterallywithasupportofcoalitionpartnersandbythussustainthestableglobaleconomicsituation.Inrationalterms,theydecidedcorrectly.AftertheSecondWorldWarrelativelystrongandstableregimeswerebeinges-tablishedintheMiddleEast.Iran,IraqandSaudiArabiaweresolidstates,whichwereprogressingandgainingstrengthrelativelysuccessfully.Inthebeginningofthe1970’s they felt that theybecamestrongenough toblackmail,even thoughtheirwealthwasn’tbasednotontheirknowledgenorontheirinvestmentsandofcourseneitherontheirinternalmarkets.OPEChaswithblackmailingthenewoilpricescausedanoilcrisis;theworldeconomicsystemwasslightlyshaken,thoughtheconsequencesweren’ttooharsh,butthesignalthatsomethinghastobedonewasclearenough.The second phase, the phase of the internal instability of the Gulf States hascommenced,eventhoughthephasehasn’tcommencedjustbyitself.Itwasoren-couragedoratleastpermittedbythegreatpowers.NotjusttheU.S.A.permittedthis,butmoreorlessquietlyalltheimportantcountriesoftheworldagreedtothesituation,whilelessstablecountriesoftheGulfregion,whichhavebesidestheirinternalpoliticalalsoeconomicproblemscaninanycasenotinfluencetheglobaleconomyandpossessnopowertorepeatsuchblackmail.InIrantherevolutionwasallowed(theleaderwasoperatingfromtheWesternEurope,fromwherehetriumphantlyreachedIran)andtherevolutionbyrulealwaysbringsaperiodofinstabilityandeconomicweakness.TheIran-Iraqwarwasnotpreventedandthatfurtherweakenedbothcountries.Iraqwasstillshowingsignsofstability,butwasaftertheattackin1991onitsknees,thoughtheregimeofSaddamwasaccord-ingtothestrategyofsupportingtheweakandinstableregimesinthisregion,notcompletelycrushed.IfSaddamfellatthattime,theWestwouldhavenooptionbuttoestablishademocratic,stableandsolidregime,whichwouldnotbeincom-pliancewiththenprevailingstrategy.Instability inthethirdimportantcountry,theSaudiArabia,hasbeenconstantlygrowing.Dissatisfactionofthemassesof

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peopleduetoatotallackofrespectforhumanrightsandthetremendousdiffer-encesinwealthdonotexactlyrepresentstabilizersforthiswithoilextremelyrichcountry.According to the data of OPEC, the average growth rates of the real nationalproductof itsmembersstoodintheyear2001atthelevelof2,7%, intheyear2002at1,6%,whileitispredictedtobeat1,4%fortheyear2003,whichisundertheworldaverage,whichisestimatedat2,9%fortheyear2003.TheGNPgrowthinthesecountriesisfallinginadditiontothealreadylowbasis,whilethegrowthofthenationalproductinOECDcountries,i.e.inthedevelopedworldwithap-proximatelyfifteentimeshigherGNPperperson,hasinthesameperiodgrownfrom0,8%to1,7%.Ofcourse,theregimesinthesecountriesdonotblametheirdictatorialandoutdatedformofgovernmentfortheirpooreconomicresults,butratherthedevelopedwesterncountries,especiallytheUnitedStates,withwhichtheseregimesonlyencouragetheterrorism.Wehavetoknowthattheweaponsformassdestructionisonlyoneoftherea-sons, even perhaps more of an excuse or a good presentation for the urgencyofthemilitarystrikeinIraq.Itisnotthemainreasonandnotthemainmotif.Wecouldbe talkingof settling the internalpolitical relations ina strategicallyimportantregion.Sayingbluntly,asortofathirdphasestarted,aperiodwithastrategicgoalofestablishingsuchregimesintheregionthatwilloffermoreper-spectivestothepeople,moredemocracyandwherethedesperateandfromthenegativepropagandablindedinhabitantswillnotbeseekingrefugeinterrorismasamethodthatinitsfinalphaseenablesthedictatorialregimestostayinpower.Atthesametimethenewlyestablishedregimesshouldnotbedisloyaltothecur-rentglobalizationprocessesandwouldinconnectiontotheoilnotbeacceptingorencouragingsuchdecisions,whichcouldweakenthecurrentlyrelativelystableworldeconomicsituation.ThemilitarychapteroftheIraqicrisisisover.Theprocessofinternalconsolida-tion,democratizationandestablishmentofthesystemhasbegun, inwhichthebasicneedsofthemassesofpeoplewillbemetatleastinsomemannerandwillbeatthesametimeundersuchefficientsupervision,astomakethedangerofinternal destabilization, appearance of terrorism (or not ceasing of it where italreadyexists)andits»export«minimal.Simultaneouslyitisexpectedfromthenewly establisheddemocratic regimenot tomake anydecisions thatwouldbechangingthestatusquointheareaoftheoiltradesystem.TheInternational InstituteIFIMESbelieves that theprocessesof transformingtheunstableandradicalregimes,wherethehumanmassesrepresentanexplosivemixtureandwherehiddenaspirationsappearforthechangeinsystemintheoilarea,willoccurmorespontaneously.Radicalmilitaryinterventionswillnotcomeinto consideration. The contours of the strategic goal of the great powers are

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moreandmoreexpressive,moreperceivableandwiththisdonotrepresentonlytheinterestsofthestrongestgreatpowertheU.S.A.Iftheregimesofthisregioncomprehendthisbasictruthandfindatleastabitofinternalstrengthtoassistthisprocess,theprocessesofstabilizingtheregionwillcontinueinalessdramaticmanner.IFIMESbelievesthatthereisasmallprobabilityfortheseregimestobeabletoseethesituationandthatduetotheinternalstiffnessoftheseregimes,be-causeofwhichtheyareevenlesscapabletoreact,mostprobablythestabilizationprocessofthisregionwillevenaftertheendoftheIraqiepisodebeencounteringdramaticmoments.

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IFIMES has been as The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Stud-ies in Ljubljana analyzing the post-war events in Iraq in the light of daily attacks on American soldiers and the destruction of infrastructure that belongs to the Iraqi peo-ple. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:

HOT IRAQI SUMMER

IraqhasaftertheliberationfromtheregimeofSaddamHusseinbecomeasceneofquotidianattacksagainst theCoalitionsoldiers,especially theAmericans inthecentralSunnipartofIraq.Wouldthisrepresentonlyabeginningofanover-allSunniuprisingagainsttheAmericans,whohavemarginalizedtheirabsolutepoliticalroledespitethembeinginminorityattheexpenseoftheShiites,ethnicKurdsandTurkmen,whorepresentamajority?Oristhisabeginningoftheactiv-ityforthenewlyestablishedorganizationAl-QaidaII,whichactedoutexcellentlyplannedandperformedterroristactionsinRiyadhandCasablanca?And,nottheleast,whoisgivingthemsupportandwhoispraisingtheirterroristacts?WouldthisbetheArabstateswithsomeEuropeanonesthatwereopposingtheopera-tionstoliberateIraqfromtheregimeofSaddamHussein?AttacksontheAmericantroopsareoccurringexclusivelyintheSunnitepartofIraq,stretchingfromRamadyaandFalujjainthewesttoTikritinthenorth,in-cludingtheSunnitepartsofBaghdadtillBaladaandBaquba.Theanalystspossessdifferentopinionsontheleveloforganizationandthegoalsofsuchterroristac-tions.ArabicandcertainEuropeanmedia,especiallytheGermanandtheFrenchones,arepresentingtheseterroristsasrebels,whowishfortheAmericanstoleavetheircountry.SuchmediaarethustryingtoprovethatthewarinIraqwasnotawarofliberationbutratherawarofoccupation.PentagonbelievesthatthesearetheremnantsofthetoppledregimefromamongtheBaathPartymembers.Thetruth isofcoursesomewhere inthemiddle,orbetterput,amixtureofallthesefactors.FollowersoftheselocalorganizationsareformermembersofthedisbandedIraqiarmyandthesecretservices,accompaniedbytensofArabvol-unteers,whocametodefendSaddam’sregimefromtheattackandarestillfreelycrossingtheIraqibordersfromthedirectionofSyria,JordanandSaudiArabia,but in all probability also from thedirectionof Iran. The latter are composedprimarilyoftheAl-Qaidamembers,whoafteroverthrowingoftheTalibanregimeinAfghanistanfoundrefugeinIran.Followersoftheseorganizationsaredespitetheup-to-nowmutualideologicaloppositionamongtheislamistAl-QaidaandthenationalisticBaathPartyunitedagainsttheircommonenemy.The International Institute IFIMES is sharing theviewsof theAmericancom-manders,whoclaimthattheIraqisummerisgoingtobehotandthattheten-dencyofculminationofsuchattacksisgrowingstronger,aclaimconfirmedalso

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bytheciviladministratorofIraqPaulBrennerinhislettertoPresidentBushinthemiddleofJune2003.AccordingtotheopinionoftheanalystsoftheInter-nationalInstitutesmallergroupsnumberinglessthan5membersareperformingtheseattacks.Theattacksarebeingpreparedinsecrethousehideoutswithinthelimitsoftheinnercitycenter,meaningthatpracticallyeveryhouseisapotentialambushfortheCoalitiontroops.Insomecities,Falujjaforinstance,themosqueswereturnedintominorarmories,while the imams (the Islamic priests) have become local commanders recruit-ingfollowerstoperformsuchterroristactions,followingexamplesoftheHamasorganizationandtheIslamicJihad.Probablythemembersoftheseorganizationshavealreadyinfiltratedthesegroupsaswellastoofferthemtheirexperienceac-quiredthroughtheterroristattacksinIsrael.TheAmericanactionsofsearchingaftertheprohibitedweaponsinhousesandmosquesarefurtherhinderedbythemediaattacksofArabsatelliteTVnetworks,whicharepresentingthesesearchesasattacksagainsttheIslamicshrinesandasdishonoringoftheIslamicfamilytra-ditions(whileperforminghousesearches).TheArabregimesandsomeskepticalEuropeanpoliticianssharetheopinionthattheseactionsareareactiontotheoc-cupationofthecountryandareexpressingtheirsympathieswiththesufferingoftheIraqipeople.ThesecircleswishfortheU.S.A.toloosethewarforrebuildingofIraqandthusprovethelegitimacyoftheiropposition.WiththistheirhypocrisyisexposedtowardsthesolvingoftheIraqiquestion.Thus,forexample,thevisitoftheIsraeliPrimeMinisterArielSharontothecourtyardoftheAl-AqsaMosqueontheTempleMountispresentedasthegreatestinsulttotheMuslims,whichin-flamedthePalestinianuprising,whileatthesametimetheyaredenyingthemassgravesofamillionIraqis.SaudiArabiaherselfhasinthepasttwoyearsthroughdiversereligiousfundscontributed4billiondollarsinsupportoftheIntifadaandproliferationofintoleranceovertheworld,afactaboutwhichacompletereportwaswrittenfortheAmericanCongressbythesenatorsRichardShelby(R)andCarlLevin(D).TheseriousnessandthesensitivityofthesituationinwhichIraqisfoundiswellunderstoodalsobytheUNSpecialEnvoySergioVieiradeMello,whohasdecid-edtovisittheIraqineighborsandwillprobablyonthemeetingoftheUNSecurityCouncilonthe22ndofJuly2003demandthattheIraniansstopinterferingwiththeIraqiinterioraffairs.TheInternationalInstituteIFIMESisproposingtothenewlyelectedgoverningcouncilofIraqtoacceptthefollowingdecisions:· Toopendiplomaticmissionsintheneighboringcountrieswithafocusonthe

securityandeconomicquestions.· To accept the 12th article of the Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s

visionpublishedintheWallStreetJournalonthe27thofMay2003,which

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presupposes a de-baathization of the country and healing of the wounds,accordingtotheEasternEuropeanmodelafterthefallofcommunism.

· To immediately establish relations with Israel with rich experience in theeconomicandsecurityfield.

TheInternationalInstituteIFIMESisproposingtotheAmericanciviladministra-torthefollowing:· ToprohibitallthebranchesoftheIslamichumanitarianorganizationsinIraq,

which areusually under thehumanitarian guiseperformingSaudi-wahabiteorIranian-Shiitemissionaryactivities.Theassistancedistributionshouldbeentrustedtotheinternationalorganizations.

· Tointroducedomesticliaisonofficerstobestationedwitheveryactiveuniton the ground.Suchofficerswould advice theAmericanson the issuesofrespectingtheprivacyandotherIslamicregulations,whichwere in the lastperiodacommonreasonforattackingthesoldiers.Exactlyinconnectiontothis, for instance, the killing of 6 British soldiers occurred in the peacefulsouthernIraq.

· To prohibit all the media that are disseminating intolerance – here theexperienceofGermanyafter1945isvaluable,asisthefoundingofthepresscouncilinBosniaandHerzegovina.

· The Balkans are an American success story after a decade of war andengagingof thepoliticians,whoparticipated in the constructionofBosniaand Herzegovina (for instance, Westendorp, Klein). The relocation of theAmerican ambassador in Sarajevo Clifford Bond to Baghdad certainlyrepresentsastepintherightdirectionandanimplementationofthepositiveexperiencesoftheDaytonPeaceAccordinBosniaandHerzegovinaandherneighborhood.

· TosupporttheorganizingofcivilsocietyinIraqtopromotetheliberalideas,womenrights,marketeconomy,tolerance,etc.

The International Institute IFIMES is proposing to the American DemocraticPartyandthecounter-candidatesofthepresidentBushonthenextelectionsnottousethecharacteristicsofthepresidentandhisassociates(Rumsfeld,Wolfow-itz,Rice,Tenett)fortheinternalsettlingofaccountsinthepre-electioncampaign.AfailuretostabilizeIraqcandestroyallthepositiveeffectsoftheintervention,adevelopmentthatcandirectlythreatenthewholeMiddleEastandtheAmericannationalsecurity.

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IFIMES – The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies has been regularly analyzing the events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES is current-ly analyzing the demographic movements and the demographic situation in Vojvodina in light of a possible destabilization of this northern Serbian province and is as such proposing solutions, which will contribute to the stabilization of the situation and will use the national communities in Vojvodina as a bridge of Serbia with its neighbors. The most interesting and important sections of the analysis are given below:

VOJVODINA: NEW (OLD) OPPORTUNITYFOR THE SERBIAN GOVERNMENT

Events, which have started on the territory of former SFRJ at the end of theeightiesofthepreviouscentury,havelefttracesinthenorthernSerbianprovinceofVojvodinaaswell.TheRepublicofSerbiaor rather theregimeofSlobodanMilošević has after the proclamation of the 1989 Constitution abolished theexistenceofKosovoandVojvodinaprovinces,eventhoughthebordersofbothprovinceswererecognizedbythefederalconstitutionofYugoslaviaasintrafed-eralborderswithintheframeworkoftheexistingstateandassuchrepresentedaspecialcasewithinthefederalstate.Vojvodina is with its extremely varied ethnical, linguistic and religious compo-sition undoubtedly representing one of the greatest jewels of Europe, and is aspecial case within the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia andpresent-daySerbia.InVojvodinatoday,therehavebeenresidingatleast17differ-entethnicgroups,whosepresenceinthisnorthernSerbianprovinceisrecordedforatleast90years.Inadditiontothis,wecanencounterherealsothecommuni-tiesofBulgarians,Montenegrins,Bosniaqs,MacedoniansandAlbanians,whosearrivalcouldbedatedwithintheperiodaftertheestablishmentoftheYugoslavmonarchyin1918.Atthebeginningofthe18thcentury,whenthetransferofVojvodinafromundertheTurkishruletotheAustrianruleiscompleted,inVojvodinawecanalreadyspeakofatleastfivegeneralethnicalgroupings:Croatian-catholic,Serbian-ortho-dox,whointhisareadeveloponeoftheirnationalcenters,Hungarian,RomanianandRomani.InthisperiodwecanalsoobservetheremnantsofMuslimpopula-tion,whohavenotdepartedwiththeretreatingOttomanforces,aswellassmallercommunitiesofJews,ArmeniansandGreeks.IntensivecolonizationoftheseextremelyfertileplanesofVojvodinabeginswithanofficialblessingatthetimeofAustrianempressMariaTheresainthesecondhalfofthe18thcentury,aprocessthatwascontinuinguntiltheendoftheDualmon-archyin1918.EventhoughwecanencountertheseprocessesalsoinSlavoniaandBarania,whichisduetoitsdiversitymorelikeVojvodinathantherestofCroatia,

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Vojvodinaneverthelessrepresentsauniqueexample.Forthisperiodasettlingofdiverse ethnical groups residing in the empire is typical.These groups includeSlovaks, Czechs, Slovenians, Ruthenians, Ukrainians, Poles, Central-EuropeanJewsandofcourseGermansandAustrians.InVojvodinawecannotonlyspeakofsettlinginlargertownsandcities,whereconcentrationofdiversegroupsinonecityencouragesmixingandassimilationofsmallerintolargercommunities,theemphasisisratherputontheexistenceofsmallercountrysidesettlements,whereacertainethnicalcommunityrepresentsanabsolutemajority.ThusinVojvodinawecanobservenotonlySerbian,Croatian,RomanianandHungarianvillages,butalsoCzech,Slovak,RuthenianandGermanones.Thisholdstruefortodayaswell,whenwecanstilllocatevillages,wherenotonlytraditionalethnicalcommu-nitiesareinmajority,butevenMontenegrins,BulgariansandMacedonians.The ethnical make-up has with the establishment of the first Yugoslavia notchanged much and according to the 1931 census we find on territory of thepresent-dayVojvodina395.000Hungarians(around25%of thegeneralpopula-tion),341.000Germans(lessthan20%ofthepopulation),approximately100.000SlovaksandCzechsand25.000RutheniansandUkrainians.BeforetheSecondWorldWartherewerealso17.000JewsinVojvodina.AnadditionalmeaningtoallthisisforemostafactthattheSerbsrepresentedlessthanhalfofthepopulationandbecomeamajorityonlyaftertheWWII(in1948theyrepresent50,6%ofthepopulation).TheWorldWarIIandtheeventsafterwardsmeantfortheethnicalpictureofVojvodinaprimarilytheendoftwocommunities,theJewishandtheGerman.TheJewsofSremandBanatwerekilledalreadyin1941,whiletheJewsofBacskametthesamefatein1944.Only2.000JewssurvivedtheHolocaustinVojvodina.TheGermancommunitymetitsendwiththeconclusionofthewar.ThenalargepartoftheGermancommunityleaveswiththeretreatingGermansoldiersor isexpelledbythenewauthoritiesduetotheircooperationwiththeoccupyingforces.Someofthemvoluntarilydepartinlateryears.Thusin1948wecanfind32.000GermansinVojvodina,whilein1961only11.000areleft.EstablishmentofthesecondYugoslaviabroughtsomeotherconsequencesfortheethnicalcompositionoftheareaaswell.OnthevacantGermanareasnotonlySerbs from outside Vojvodina start to settle, but also Bosniaqs, Montenegrins,MacedoniansandmembersofothernationsandethnicitiesoftheFederation.Ingeneral,wecouldstatethattheperiodofsecondYugoslaviawasverypositivelyinclined towards the ethnic diversity of then Autonomous Province within theSocialistRepublicofSerbia, sinceall theethnicalgroupswereby theconstitu-tionguaranteedalltheminorityrights,whichenabledtheirculturalandethnicaldevelopmentandsurvival.ThusinVojvodinaofthatagewecanwitnesstri-lingualofficialdocuments,Slovaktheaterperformances,Ruthenianhighschools(whichwere the only ones in the world teaching in that language) and also German

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radio shows. According to 1981 census, 1.100.000 Serbs (54%), 385.000 Hun-garians(19%),120.000Croats(6%),70.000Slovaks(3,5%),48.000Rumanians(2,5%),43.000Montenegrins(2,1%),20.000Ruthenians(1%),20.000Romani(1%),19.000Macedonians,5.000Ukrainians,5.000Bosniaqs,4.000Germans,Slovenes andAlbanians each, 3.000Bulgarians, 2.000Czechs, 1.000Russiansand600Jews, inaddition to170.000non-ethnicYugoslavs,arepopulatingVo-jvodina.Inthe1990’s,whentheautonomyofVojvodinawasabolishedandwhenthedarkcloudscoveredtheSerbiansky,considerablechangesintheethniccompositionofVojvodinaoccurred,despitethefactthatthisarea(asopposedtootherregionsoftheformerYugoslavia)didnotexperienceeventsofmassslaughterorethniccleansing.TheshareofCroatsandHungarianswasreduced,whiletheshareofSerbsrosenotonlyduetotheemigrationofothergroups,butalsoduetoalargenumberof refugees that arrived to this area fromCroatia,KosovoandBosniaandHerzegovina.While in thecaseofCroatiancommunitywecan talkaboutemigrationduetothenationalconflictbetweenthemandtheSerbs,thecaseofHungariansisslightlymorecomplex.ThenumberofHungariansinthisperiodfellnotonlyduetothereducedminorityrightsandtheeconomiccrisis,butalsoduetothepoliticsoftheHungarianstate,whichthroughitslegislationencour-agedimmigrationoftheHungarianminoritiesfromall theareas inwhichtheyresidedoutsideofHungary.Inadditiontothis,inthisperioditisveryhardtorelyonthedatafromthe1991and2001census.Thedatafromthesetwocensusesarenotonly incomplete,sincetheyceasedtomentionsmallerethnicalgroupsandbecausethereisapossibilitythatthesedatawereadaptedtotheneedsoftheof-ficialstatistics,butalsobecauseitisknownthatincasesofnationalconflictsandacertainmeasureofrepression,membersofminoritiestendtoidentifylesswiththeirownminoritygroupforthepurposeofofficialidentification.TheInternationalInstituteIFIMESbelievesthatwiththenewdecade,whenthesituationinSerbiaisbeingimproveddaily,wecanexpectfurtherchangesintheethnicalcompositionofVojvodina’spopulation.WithdemocratizationofalltheregionsofformerYugoslaviaandwithceasingthearmedconflictsintheseareasitcanbeexpectedthatacertainpartoftherefugeepopulationwillcommencereturningtothelocationsoftheirformerresidence.IncaseofVojvodinaitmeansgrowthintheshareofminorityethnicalgroups.AsimilarcaseisknownfromtheneighboringBulgariawherewearewitnessingaprocessofreturnforamillionofethnicalTurks,whostartedtoreturnaftertheconditionsimprovedandwhenBulgariastartedtoentertheEuro-Atlanticconnections.Inaddition to this, the introductionofmarketeconomyanddemocraticpoliti-calsysteminSerbiacanmeanalsothatapartoftheHungarianpopulationthatmovedtoHungarywillreturn.Ingeneral,bettertimesarebeginningforallthe

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minoritiesinVojvodina.Asarule,theintroductionofliberaldemocraticpoliticalandliberalcapitalisteconomicalsystemisincreasingtheurgencyandtheneedfortoleranceamongthediverseethnical,linguisticandreligiouscommunities,sinceitisthisdiversityandtherespectforthediversitythatrepresentoneofthekeystothesuccessofdemocracyandmarketeconomy,whilesimultaneouslybeingoneofthestrongestcardsoftheregion.TheInternationalInstituteIFIMESbelievesthatVojvodinaisthenew(old)op-portunityfortheGovernmentofSerbia,whichcouldusetheethnicminoritiesoftheregionforconnectionsandcooperationwiththeneighbors,asthecoopera-tionwithneighbors representsoneof thepreconditions toenter theEuropeanUnion.ApossibledestabilizingofVojvodinawillmore thandestabilizeSerbiabringgreaterexternaldamage,sinceitwouldrepresentasigntotheinternationalcommunitythattheconditionsinSerbiaarenotimprovingandespeciallyasigntoforeigninvestorsnottoparticipateintheprivatizationSerbiaisundergoing,onwhichdependstheeconomicalandpoliticalstabilityofthestateorratheroftheexistingpowerstructure.Withaproperpoliticsoftoleranceandmulticulturalism,whereallminoritiesareguaranteedalltherightsdeterminedbytheUnitedNations,Vojvodinathatinherpast(withsomeexceptions)doesnotknowexamplesofextremeformsofhatredandannihilation,cansetanexampleforcooperation,coexistenceandflourishingofalltheregions,whicharecharacterizedbysuchagreatdiversityinthecomposi-tionofpopulation.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na, Slovenia, constantly analyses events in the regions of the Middle East and the Balkans. From its comprehensive analysis of the current political situation in Serbia the most important and interesting sections are given below:

SERBIA: G17 PLUS SECRET PLANS?

Until5October2000SerbiawasruledbySlobodanMilosevicandhisSocialistPartysupportedmoreorlesswholeheartedlybythesatelliteparties.AftertheassassinationofPrimeMinisterZoranDjiindjicon12March2003theturbulenceatthepoliticalsceneofSerbiahasachieveditsmaximumextent.Theexpectedprofilingofpoliticalgroupations–typicalforthecountriesintransition–andemphasisingofpoliticaldifferenceshavedevelopedanewdimension–thefabricatingofaffairs.ThepresentGovernmentoftheRepublicofSerbialedbyPrimeMinisterZoranZivkovicissupportedbythreestrongparties:theDemocraticParty(DS),theLib-eralsofSerbia(LS)andtheDemo-ChristianPartyofSerbia(DHSS).Theformertwopartiesarethetargetsofalltheattacksofthepoliticalopponentswhilethelattermanoeuvres successfullyhidingbehind its campaign for the independentSerbia.Othermembersofthegovernmentfromotherpartiesarecarefulintheirstatementsnottoloseanyone’sfavourandtryingpatientlytoestablishtheirposi-tioninthecomingelectionrace.SinceAleksandarVlahovicandBranislavLecicjoinedtheDemocraticPartytherehavebeenactuallynomore»independentministers«intheSerbiangovernment,especiallyifweareawareofthefactthatMinisterMilosavljevicisamemberofDHSSandthemanwhowasthemainlinkbetweentheZoranDjindjic-VladanBaticrelation.Thecurrentaffairs(noneofthemareprovedandreceivedthecourtepilogue)andtheirsensationalpresentationtothepublicdirectedbyG17PlusclearlypointstothecreationofapoliticalfrontwiththeKostunica’sDemocraticPartyofSerbia(DSS)andtheFederationofIndependentTradeUnionswhichannouncedmassstrikesandmarchesalongthestreetstobeheldinOctober.Moreover,theSerbianRadicalParty(SRS)withtheirannouncementofameetinggivesaclearpictureofthepoliticalmovementsinthefutureperiod,i.e.theattempttodestabilizetotallythepositionsoftheGovernmentandtoprovokeearlyparliamentaryelectionsinSerbia.According to the information of the IFIMES International Institute, alreadyhalfway through last year Mladjan Dinkic and Miroljub Labus had thought ofastrategywhichshouldhavebroughtthemtheleadingroleintheSerbianstate.According to thatplan, the resourcesof theNationalBankofYugoslavia then

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ledbyDinkicaswellasofthosecommercialbanksthemanagementofwhichisdirectlycontrolledbyG17Plusweretobeactivated,however,notforthepublicgoodandtothebenefitofallthecitizensofSRJandSerbiabuttothebenefitoftheparty.Thiswouldensureenormousfinancialsupportforanysubsequentac-tivitiesofG17Plus.Intheirproject,DinkicandLabusalsoplannedthesystemicdistributionoftheirfavouritestafftothekeypositionsinthestateandtheplacingofthewholeeconomyandfinanceunderthedirectcontrolofthetwostrategists.ThatwouldturnthetimeinSerbiabacktotheperiodbefore2000whenonlytwopeople,SlobodanMilosevicandMirjanaMarkovic,madeindependentdecisionsonallthekeyissuesinthestate.However,thedemocracywhichwasbroughttoSerbiaon5October2000couldnotsupportsuchaplanafteritsdisclosure.Thepromotersofdemocracyarethereforeinthewayofthetwocollaborators.ThesupporttoDinkic’sandLabus’sstrongdesiretooverthrowthepresentGov-ernmentofSerbiaarrivedfromwhereitwasexpected-Kostunica’sDemocraticParty of Serbia (DSS). Although incompatible on the outside, the two partieshavemoreorlessthesamegoal:theabsolutepowerinSerbia.BothgroupationsarepreventedinachievingsucharegulationofSerbiabythepartieswhichpar-ticipateintheGovernmentworkatthemoment.Thecontactswiththenewallywereintenselybuiltuponalreadyatthebeginningof2003andwereatfirstverydiscrete.ThekeygoalsoftheDinkicandLabusplanwere:Firstofall,toensureconstantfinancingoftheG17PluspartywhichwasformedinDecember2002fromthepreviousnon-governmentalorganisationwiththesamename.AnothergoalwastoformtheeliteoffinancierscomposedofthemembersofG17Plus,theirfriendsandco-operatorsaswellasofallthefrightenedbankersandbusinessmenwhichwouldthroughitsmonopolyenablefurtherloyaltyoftheemployeesintheprivateandpublicsector.ThemodelisinmanyrespectsimilartotheplansoftheleadersofthenotoriousYugoslavLeft(JUL)toestablishthesocalledinterestcontrolof everything and everybody in the country ruledbySlobodanMilosevic.Fur-thermore,insuchasystemitwouldbeeasytoincreasethenumberofthestaffenthusiasticaboutDinkicandLabus.However,whiletheJULandMilosevicsystemofgovernmentwasdominatedbyprimitive and simpleofficialswhose intentionswere easy to findout, thenewcoupleat the topof theG17Pluspartyhaveamuchmore refined relation tothepublic,potentialvotersand themembers.Theirpublicspeechesare fullofconcernforthedemocracyinSerbiaanditseconomyandabundantinexpressedwishestoimprovethestandardofthecitizens.Theycanonlybecontradictedbyargumentssincetheybothmastertheskillsofpublicappearanceandknowwhenandhowtoavoidtheunpleasantandcompromisingquestions.AfterDjindjic,DusanMihajlovic is another targetof thegroup.G17Plusand

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DSSagreedthatMihajlovicisunpopularamongonepartofthepublicespeciallyafterSlobodanMilosevicwasarrestedand that thereforeattacksatMihajlovicandattheMinistryofInteriorwhichheleadscanbringDinkicandLabusplentyofvotesfromthosewhowouldotherwisenotbeinfavourofthem.DuetothepressureexercisedbyG17PlusMihajlovicwouldbeforcedtoresigntothesatis-factionofespeciallyDSSsothisisanotherpointofcommoninterestofthetwoparties.TheIFIMESInternationalInstitutebelievesthattheLiberalsofSerbia(otherwise the members of the European Liberal Democratic Reform Party)ledbyDusanMihajloviccanbethebridgebetweenpoliticallyopposingpartiesinSerbiabringingthemtogethertopursuetheircommongoal,i.e.accessionofSerbiatotheEuroatlanticintegrations.TheGovernmentofSerbiaisfacingalongstrugglewiththeorganisedcrimeandonlyifitwinsthisfightSerbiawillregainitscredibilityintheinternationalcommunity.One of the specific features of the current political situation in Serbia is theexpressingofdiametricallyopposedpoliticalstatements.TheG17PluspartyasoneofthemainadvocatesofredefiningthefederationandMiroljubLabusasthesignatoryoftheBelgradeAgreement–thebasisforestablishmentoftheunionofSerbiaandMontenegro–arenowadvocatingtheideaofindependentSerbiausingtheslogan»Serbiaatthefirstplace«.MiroljubLabushasshownanegativepoliticaltransformationfromthemodernWesternpolitician(whichheusedtobeattherecentpresidentialelectionsinSerbia)tothetypicalBalkanpoliticianwhomanagestomaintainhispositioninthepoliticalscenebyproducingaffairs.Thepresentgovernment inSerbiashouldbesupportedatall levels inorder tobeengagedasmuchaspossibleinthereformsinsteadofdealingwithanswerstovariousproducedaffairs.TheNationalAssemblyofSerbiameetsregularlyandpasseslawswhichareofvitalimportanceforthecontinuationoftheundertakenreformprocess.Theadoptionofthelawsmostlyrequiresthesupportofaminoropposition group and usually it is the party composed of the members of theformerSocialistPartyofSerbialedbyBranislavIvkovic.Thus,theparliamentarymajorityexistsbutisalwaysverytight.TheparliamentisalsothesubjectofthepresentaffairswhichareaimedatinvalidatingretroactivelytheexistenceofthequorumasincaseoftheelectionofKoriUdovickiasgovernoroftheNationalBankofSerbia.Itisthegeneralimpressionthattheshowbizattitudeandtheintensityoftheaf-fairseventuallyleadtosaturationandthelossofinterestofthepublicinthosetopics.Thoughthepoliticalbenefithasbeenreapedatthemoment,inthelongruntheaffairsbroughttothepublicduringthepastperiodwillnotleavealastingimpressiononthevotersespeciallyifthetrendcontinuesandthecreatorsofthecampaigndecidetocarryonfabricatingaffairs.Nevertheless,publicopinionresearchshowsthattherehavebeennosubstantial

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changes at the political scene of Serbia and that DSS, DS and G17 Plus stilldominate.However,itisinterestingtonoticeasuddenincreaseofthepopularityoftheDemocraticPartyVice-PresidentandpresentDefenceMinisterBorisTadicaswellastheconstantlyhighratingoftheformergovernorandVice-PresidentofG17PlusMladjanDinkic.Itshouldbepointedoutthatthereiscertainreserva-tionaboutallthepublicopinionresearchescarriedoutandpublishedsincetheyaretreatedasbiasedandfavourabletocertainpoliticalgroupations.Themedia inSerbiarepresentavariegatedpicture.Thenewspapermediawithlargestcirculation(Kurir,Blic,Balkan,NINetc.areexplicitlycriticaltowardsthegovernmentwhiletheleadingelectronicmedia(Pink,BKandRTSasthenationalhouse)arefavourabletothecabinetofPrimeMinisterZivkovic.Theinfluential–thoughlimitedinreach-B92radiostationisalsocriticaltowardstheactivitiesofthegovernment.TheIFIMESInternationalInstitutebelievesthatthecurrentpoliticalsituationinSerbiacanberegardedasnormalforacountryintransitiontakingaccountofallthespecificfeaturesoftheregionandthereforetheGovernmentofSerbiaandespecially theMinistryof Interior shouldbe supported in theirefforts to fightcrime.Thepoliticalsituationshouldbestabilisedinordertocarryoutthepresi-dentialelectionswhereSerbiawouldfinallychooseitspresident.Ifthefabricationofaffairscontinuestherewillmostprobablybeamassabstentionofvotersandanotherunsuccessfulelection.Serbiashouldcontinuewiththedemocratisationanddecriminalisationprocessesandpreventthecreationofmonopolyofanykind–especiallyofthemonopolyofanyparty.SerbiamustshowtheworldthattheMiloceviceraisultimatelydefeatedandcanneveragainberepeated,thatthereisnomoreroomforsecretplansinSerbiansocietywhichinsteadexpectscompletetransparencyandthatSerbiawishestobecomearespectedandequalmemberoftheinternationalcommunity.

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Talk of Professor Munther Al Fadhal, PhD of law given on ‘Crimes against Kurd in Iraq’ at Poznan University in 20-23/10-2003 Poland

GENOCIDE AND THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMES AGAINSTKURD IN IRAQ UNDER SADDAM REGIME

GenocideisanInternationalCrime.Itiskillingoraimingtokillpeoplebydiffer-entmeansandisconsideredasanactthatthreatenssecurityandsafetyofsocietybecause it results inexterminationandpersecutionofpeople for thenatureoftheir nationality, race or religion. Genocide is not a political, but a deliberatecrimeevenifitiscommittedforpoliticalmotivation.GenocidecommittedbytheIraqiregimewasalwayscomprehensiveandagainstallfactionsofIraqipeopleregardlessofethnic,religiousorculturalbackgrounds.Forinstance,theAssyrianswhoaretheindigenouspeopleofIraqandatinyandpeacefulChristianminorityhavebeensubjectedtoethnicandreligiouscleansingalthoughtheyarenotforminganythreatordangertotheIraqiregime.DenominationalrepressionpolicyisanotherkindofgenocidethattheIraqire-gimehascommittedincentralandsouthernIraq.DiscriminationandhumiliationofShiathroughaseriesofarticlesthatwerepublishedinthegovernmentnews-papersfollowingtheuprisinginMarch1991wasapartofthiscrime,especiallywhenitwasdeclaredthat theMarshlandresidentsarenotArabsorIraqisandthereforetheregimehadtherighttobombtheircitiesanddestroytheirhomeland.ThesepeopleliveinanareawheretheoldesthumancivilizationsbeganandwheretheoldlawsofSumeriansandBabylonwerewritten.InIraq,violationsofhumanrightshavebeencommittedsince1968,whentheBaathregimecametopower,especiallyagainsttheShias,KurdsandTurkmens.ThesituationbecameworsewhenthewarbetweenIraqandIranbrokeout.TensofthousandsofShiaswereroundedandmassexecuted.Chemicalweaponswereusedin1988againsttheKurds.DrainingoftheMarshlands,destructingtheen-vironment,poisoningthewatersandburningcompletevillagesintheSouthareclearviolationsofinternationallawsandagreements.Thispapercomprisesthreesections:1.)Conceptofgenocidecrime2.)InternationalcrimesagainsthumanityinsouthernIraq3.)Recommendations

1. CONCEPT OF GENOCIDE CRIME

TheConventionon thePreventionandPunishmentof theCrimeofGenocide

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of1948wasconcernedwiththeexterminationofhumanbeingsfortheirraceorreligion.Theword‘genocide’becameassociatedwithNazismbecauseofmassa-cringpeoplefortheirraceandreligionandthatwasconsideredasacrimeagainsthumanityeventhoughitwasnotconsideredasacrimeundernationallaw.

1.1.FormsofGenocidea. Killingmembersofthegroups;b. Causingseriousbodilyormentalharmtomembersofthegroup;c. Deliberatelyinflictingonthegroupconditionsoflifecalculatedtobringabout

itsphysicaldestructioninwholeorinparts;d. Imposingmeasuresintendedtopreventbirthswithinthegroup;e. Forciblytransferringchildrenofthegrouptoanothergroup.

1.2.Formsofkillingthegroupsa. Bodily genoocideandethnic cleansing: it is aboutkillingpeoplebypoison

gas,executingandburyingthemalive.Thishappenedin1991inIraqandlateronagainst theShia inhabitants insouthernIraq.TheIraqi regimekilled inoneday2000Shiasthroughaprocesscalled“cleaningofprisons”.ThecrimeagainstsouthernIraqincludingthedestructionofMarshlandsbyconstructingdamsanddrainingtheMarshlandshasbeensohorrendousthatwasfilmedandshowntopeopleallovertheworldthroughmedia.Thiscausedforciblemigrationoftensofthousandsof localpopulation.In2002,theEuropeansParliament and the Human Rights Committee condemned these crimes astheywereinternationalcrimesasdeclaredbytheambassadorDavidShiverinUSA.

b. Biologicalgenocide:itisaboutsterilisingmenandabortingwomeninordertowipeouttheraceofthatgroup.

c. Culturalgeenocide: it isaboutforbiddinganationtoconverse intheirownnative languagewhichhappened to theKurds in Iraq.Although this crimehas resulted in assimilation and destruction of the group’s existence, theinternationalcommunityhasnotgivenadequateattentiontothiscrime.Thiscrimehasbeencommittedforthefollowingreasons:- Religiousreaason:theworstcrimeinourtimehasbeenthecrimeofthe

Iraqi regime against the religious figures, who have been arrested andexecuted.

- Politicalanddsocialreasons:itisboutassimilationandArabisationofnon-ArabpeopleinIraq.Thishasbeencarriedoutbyaseriesofresolutionsagainst theKurds,particularly theFailyKurds, for theirnationalityandtheirShiabelief.

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2. INTERNATIONAL CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY IN KURDISTAN AND SOUTHERN IRAQ

BeforereportingtheinternationalcrimesinsouthernIraq,itiscrucialtoclarifythefollowing:

2.1.CrimeagainsthumanityThecrimesagainsthumanityhavebeenconsideredbyVaticanastheyarecrimesnot only against humanity, but against God. These crimes were specified byNurembergCourtasInternationalcrimesandmustbepunishable.SuchmajorcrimeshavebeencommittedbySaddamregimebykillingandwipingouttheci-viliansinKurdistan,destroying4500villages,andforcinghundredsofthousandsofsouthernIraqiShiastoleaveIraqforIranbecauseoftheirbelief,torturingandkillingtheirreligiousleadershipintheholycitiesofNajafandKarbalainIraq.a. Legal basiss: The Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the

Crime of Genocide adopted by the UN General Assembly on December1948 condemned all forms of genocide such as what the Iraqi regime hascommittedagainstShiainsouthernIraqandtheKurdsinthenorth,wherethousandsofpeoplewereburiedaliveandthousandsofpeoplewerekilledinHalabjaaswellasduringthecampaignofAnfalandtheuprisingin1991.

b. Material basis: it is about acts that constitute an International crime likedestructingenvironment,disappearingpeopleandusingpeopleforbiologicalandchemicalexperiments.Morethan300.000peoplewereforcedtoabandontheirplacesandnowmorethan100,000ofthemarelivinginIranasrefugeesduetothedestructionoftheirhabitatbypoisoningwater.Thishasalsocausedtheextinctionofsomespeciesofbirdsandfishesinthatarea.

2.2.WarcrimesAlthoughwarresultsinaseriousviolationofhumanrights,theinternationalcon-ventionswhichrefertotherulesofwarmustbetakenintoconsideration.Theseare:a. Den-Hagueconventionin1899–1907b. TheGenevaProtocolof1925,whichforbidsusingpoisongasandbiological

weapons.TheinternationalSecurityCouncilcondemnedtheIraqiregimeforusingchemicalweaponsin1988againsttheKurdsasstatedintheresolutionon 26 August 1988. Using chemical weapons, drying and poisoning themarshlands committed against the inhabitants in southern Iraq as well asstoringchemicalweapons in thevenicityofNajafandKarbalaby theIraqiregimeareallconsideredaswarcrimes.

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ExamplesoftheinternationalwarcrimesinIraq:1. ThecrimeofgenocidecommittedagainsttheKurdsinKurdistanaswellas

otherpartsofthecountry.AlsotheforcibledeportationoftheFailyKurds,whohavebecomevictimsfortheirShiabelief.

2. GenocideagainsthumanitysuchasusingchemicalweaponsagainsttheKurdsin1988andShiasin1991.

3. Bombing the civil Kurdish villages, inhabitants of Najaf, Karbala, Basra,SimawahandDiwaniyaaswellasthevillagesinIran.

4. Buryingpeoplealive.HundredsofthousandsoftheKurdsinIraqiKurdistanandShiasinthesouthwereburiedalive.Thisisawarcrimeanddoesnotfallbytime.Moreover,theinternationalcriminalcannotclaimanypoliticalexcuseforcommittingthatcrimeandmustnotbegrantedanysortofasylum.

5. Executingprisonersofwarandburyingthemaliveisaninternationalcrimeandtheaccusermustbeprosecutedasawarcriminal.

6. Torturing the prisoners of war and interrogating them by force is a warcrime.

7. ThecrimeofviolationagainstwomenwhichwascommittedinKurdistanandinKuwaitduringtheoccupation.

8. 10Millionsofmines,whichtheIraqiregimehasimplantedagainstpeopleinKurdistan.

2.3.CrimesagainstpeacePeopleattimeofpeacehavemanyrightsthatshouldnotgetviolatedsuchascivil,political,economical,socialandculturalrights.Theserightsduringpeacemustbetakenintoconsideration,otherwisetheInternationalcrimewouldbeinforcesuchasanoffensiveagainstothercountriesasinthecaseofKuwaitin1990.

3.RECOMMENDATIONSDuetothebrutalityofrepressionofhumanrightsinIraq,itisnecessarytocarryoutthefollowingrecommendations:1. Activating and revising resolution688 inorder to be introduced according

to chapter seven of the UN Convention to set up teams to investigate thesituationofhumanrightsinIraq.

2. EstablishingaspecialcourtforInternationalcrimestotrythoseresponsibleforcommittingtheInternationalcrimesagainsttheShiasandKurdsinIraq.

3. Paying compensation to victims whose lives got ruined because of theInternationalcrimesinIraq.

4. NullifyingthedeathpenaltyimposedbytheIraqiregime.5. Establishingahighconstitutionalcourttooverseetheimplementationofthe

constitution.

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6. ActivatingtheUN´sroletoassisttheIraqipeople.7. FreezingallassetsstolenbytheIraqregime.8. TheUNhastopayapartoftheoilforfoodprogrammeascompensationto

Iraqipeople,whohavebecomerefugeesbeforeandaftertheGulfwar.9. EstablishingahighcommitteeofIraqiexpertsinlawinordertoinvestigate

thecrimesthathavebeencommittedagainstIraqipeopleanddecideonthecompensationforthosepeople.

10.AcquaintingtheworldpublicopinionthroughmediawithallcrimesagainstIraqipeopleandfocusingontheroleofInternationalCommunitytostopthecontinuousethniccleansingofIraqipeople.

11.Rehabilitation of the environment in the marshlands of southern Iraq andworkingforrenovatingalldamagesintheMarshlandsbyremovingalldamsandhelpingtherefugeestoreturntotheirplaceoforigin.

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, constantly analyses events in the regions of the Middle East and the Bal-kans. Seven months after the liberation of Iraq IFIMES analysed the current events in the country. The most important sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below:

HAS PANDORA’S BOX BEEN OPENED?

April9isundeniablyahistoricaldaynotonlyfortheIraqipeoplebutforthewholeregionoftheMiddleEast.TwentymillionIraqisjoinedthe4millionIraqiKurdswhowereliberatedaftertheGulfWarin1991.Masseseagerforreformsinthere-gionenthusiasticallyexpectedthewindofpoliticalandeconomicreformsintheircountries(demonstrationsofthecivilsocietyinEgyptattheendofAugust2003,thefirstdemonstrationsinthehistoryofSaudiArabiainOctober2003,electionsinOman,amnestiesforpoliticalprisonersandreconstructionofthegovernmentinSyria,replacementofthecrownprinceintheUnitedArabEmirates).ThevisitorsofArab forumsat the InternetafterApril9were surprisedat theliberalandtolerantdebatesandeverybodyhopedthattheUSAwouldbeassuc-cessfulinthepoliticalrenewalofIraqfastastheywereinthe20-daywar.At theIFIMESInternational Institutewereceived thousandsof lettersandbe-came the announcersof changes.Everybodywanted toknowhow thenationsofEasternEuropeafterthedecadesoftyrannybuilt theirstatesandstartedtoovercometransitionalproblemswiththehelpofAmericaandtheWest.TheidylldrewtoanendwiththeincreaseofterroristattackswhichwereaimednotonlyagainsttheAmericanArmybutalsoagainstthevitalinfrastructurerelatedtotheeverydaylifeofordinarycitizens.TerroristattacksinIraqintensifyeverydayandaccordingtothePentagondatathereareonaverage26attacksaday.Themainconcernis their improvingor-ganisation,motivationandsupplywithmoneyandweapons.Theterroristshaveautonomouscommandandeachgroupcanoperateinitsarea,theyselectthetimeanddateaswellasthelocationoftheattackandtheirenemyisanunprotectedopentarget(infrastructure,soldiersandIraqipolice).Inshort,theyarearealil-legalarmywhichattackscertaintargetsattheirchoicewhichmaybeofpolitical,military,economic,psychologicalorhumanitarianimportance.InthisfighttheAmerican superiority in technical equipment is losing itsmeaning sinceevery-thingdependsonthehumanfactor.Toachievetheirgoals,theIraqirebelsspendmillionswhiletheAmericansspendbillionsofdollars.Perhapsthemostimportantistheirrecruitmentsystem–mostoftherecruitsareformermembersofthedissolvedIraqiarmyandintelligenceservices,membersofPalestinianterroristorganisationsandthefugitivemembersofAl-Kaidafrom

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Afghanistan.AmericanmembersoftheinfantryforceresearchcentrefromArkansaswhovis-itedIraq,KuwaitandQatarwroteintheirreportatthebeginningofOctober2003thattheyexpected120reportsdailyfromthe69intelligenceteamsonthefield,butreceiveupto30reportswhicharemostlydatedanduseless.AccordingtotheIFIMESInternationalInstitutethedataonthenumberofterror-istsareinaccurateasregardsthenationalandpoliticalappurtenanceofrebelsinIraq.Independentanalystsestimatethenumberofforeignsoldiersamongthem(prior to theunionof thetwoorganisations,JunudAllahandUsudbetween)tobebetween850and1.000.Ifanother5.000formerIraqisoldiersandagentsareaddedtothatnumberthetotalnumberofactivesympathizersintheSunnitetri-anglewithlogisticstasksisbetween20.000and30.000.Anotherconcernistheincreasingnumberofnewterrorists.AccordingtothedataofIsraeliinformersforeignterroristsprevailinnumberoverdomesticterrorists.ThiswasconfirmedbytheSyria’sForeignMinisterFaroukal-Sharaainthe»Sun-dayTelegraph«interviewon26October2003.TheUSUDorganisationwhichislocatedinSyriaisinchargeofillegalbordercrossingtoIraq.AnotherdirectionfromwheretheterroristscomeisIran.ThemembersoftheIranianRevolutionaryGuardhaverecordedAlKaidafugitivesfromPakistan,AfghanistanandCheche-nia inMashad fromwhere theyare takenoverby theAbuMusaabal-ZarqawigroupwhichhandsthemovertotheAnsaral-Islamorganisation,anAlKaidaunitlocatedinthenorthofIraq,whichwasdefeatedinajointAmerican–Kurdopera-tionfrom22to25March2003,andfromthenorththeycontinuetowardstheirdestination,i.e.theSunnitetriangle.

THE AMERICAN CONFUSION

The American confusion comes from Washington where the disagreement be-tweentheStateDepartmentandtheNationalSecurityCouncilononesideandthePentagonon theother side ismore thanobvious. Incriticalmoments thisdisagreementturnsintoariftwhenthePresidentoftheUSAhastointerfereinordertocooldownthepassions.ThedisputebetweenPentagonandtheNationalSecuritycouncilatthebeginningofOctoberwaswonbythelatter.ThePresidentappointedCondoleezzaRiceheadoftheIraqStabilizationGroup.Thisconfusionisalreadyreflectedonthefield.InthesecircumstancesAmbassadorBremerre-placedGeneralJayGarnerastheheadoftheCPA(CoalitionProvisionalAuthor-ity)whichisresponsibletothePentagon.SincePaulBremertookoverthechiefpositionintheCPA,terroristattackshavedrasticallyincreased.TheCPAdirectlyadministersthestateandthestateinstitu-tions(theadministrativecouncil,theministerialcouncil).However,whileinthe

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civilmattersithasachievedexcellentresults(renewalofinfrastructure,monetarypolicy,healthcareetc.),ithasnoclearsecuritystrategyregardingthesituationinIraq.In thisAmericanconfusion thePandora’sboxhasbeenopenedandeverydaymoreandmoreevilspiritsofterrorismescapewhilethehoperemainsatthebot-tomofthebox.Asthesolutiontothepresentsituation,theInternationalInstituteforMiddle-EastandBalkanStudies(IFIMES)proposes:1. Iraqshouldnotbethesubjectofpre-electionlowblowsbetweenRepublicans

andDemocrats.ThevictoryoftheUSAinAfghanistanandIraqwilldefinitelyberegardedasjustifiedandrightfulintheAmericanhistory.

2. CPAshouldbedividedintothecivilandthemilitarydepartment;weproposeGeneral Jay Garner as head of the military department and the formingof groups for combating terrorism composed of experienced experts fromrenownedinstitutessuchas:AEI-AmericanEnterpriseInstituteandJINSA-JewishInstituteforNationalSecurityAffairs.

3. The Iraq Stabilization Group headed by Condoleezza Rice should be ofconsultativenature.

4. TheideasofUSDefenceSecretaryDonaldRumsfeldtoestablishanagencyforideologicalfightagainstterrorismshouldberealised.

5. AnefficientIraqiprofessionalanddepoliticizedarmyandintelligenceagencyshould be established. The training of such units should be based on theAmerican »Equip andTrain«programmeused for training the armyof theBosniaandHerzegovinaFederation.

6. Knowncompanies in thefieldofsecurity fromtheUSA,IsraelandTurkeyshouldbehiredforsafeguardingthevitalfacilitiessuchasthepipelines.

7. AregionalconferenceofIraqineighbouringcountriesshouldbeconvenedtodiscusstheefficientcontrolofborders.

8. The»MiddleEastPartnershipInitiative–MEPI«shouldbeactivated.

Inviewof thefact thatIraqhasbecomethefieldforcombatingterrorism, theIFIMES International Institute proposed to the members of ICTAC (Interna-tional Counter-Terrorism Academy Community) that the IFIMES departmentlocatedinBaghdadbetheheadofficeofICTACduringthefirstyearsothatthedifferentinstitutes,universitiesandcorporationscanexchangeopinionsandlookforanswerstoopenquestionsonthefield.ICTAC - InternationalCounter-TerrorismAcademyCommunity - is headedbyICT - International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism from Herzlia, Israel.TheIFIMESInternationalInstituteistheco-founderofICTAC.

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Professor Munther Al Fadhal, PhD of lawMember of Council of International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES), Ljubljana, Slovenia

VIOLATION IF WOMEN RIGHTS IN IRAQ

Womenoccupiedadistinguishedsocial,economical,politicalandreligiousposi-tion indifferent ages andplayed an active role in life affairs. The significanceandtypesofthisroleandthispositiondiverseindifferentages.Womanusedtobeinapositionofagoddessduringtheinitialstagesofhistory.Humanbeingsusedtoworshipherandrequestedkindnessandsalvationfromherandherexist-enceformedasymbolofblessing,reproductionandfertility.Moreover,forthispurpose,therehasbeenastrongrelationbetweenwomanandcreation.Infact,woman’sexistenceassociateswithafertile,productivelandwhichnourishesman-kindfromherblessings.NumeroustextswerefoundinHamurabilegislationtoorganizeafamily,topro-tectthepositionandroleofBabylonianwomaninancientIraq.Womanusedtohaveaprivilegetodivorcefromherhusband,andhadaprivilegetotakecareofherchildrentopracticeabusinessandhadalegislativefacilityandindependentfinancialpossessionfromherhusbandandhadaprivilegeinguardianshipandliving.Severescandalswereputonapersonwhomaltreatedawomanorviolatedherconstantrightsaccordingtothementionedlaw.WomenoccupiedadistinguishedroleandahighpositionduringGreekperiodandrepublicofPlatoaswell.WhereassuchapositionwasnotthesameamongArabsbeforeIslam.Therewastheburialofgirlswhowerealiveatthattimebecauseofthefearoftheircaptureasprisonersofwarduringattacksandwars.Thispracticewasaverysignificantsocialvalueatthattimesoasawomandidnotbecomeaslavefortakingasaconcubineduringattacks.Thesocialandeconomicalposi-tiondependsontheroleofmaninagricultureandwarsuptotheappearanceofIslamwhicheliminatesprevalentsocialproblemsatthattime.However,women’spositioninsocialandeconomicalrightsdidnotimproveattheleveltobesuitabletoherhumanistvalueandherhumaneroleinfamilyandsociety.Theimportantthinghereistointroducethelegalprotectionofwomenduringthemodernageandthediscriminationofthisprotectionbetweenbothsexesandconditionsofviolationofwomenrights inIraqinordertoclarifytheessentialrecommenda-tionstoimprovewomen’sconditioninIraqisocietyinIraqafterSaddamregimeandtostopviolationsagainstherconstanthumaneprivilegesandtrythosewhocommitthesecrimesaccordingtothelawasprinciplesofjusticewhichrequirethe trialofcriminalsabout theircrimesaccording to the international lawandaccordingtothenationallawasnumerousinternationalconferenceswereheldto

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investigatetheissueofwomenrightsandtheattempttolimittheseviolationsandamongthosewasPekinConferencein1995andamongotherconferencesbytheUnitedNations.

VIOLATION OF WOMEN RIGHTS IN THE IRAQI ACT OF PUNISHMENTS NUMBER 111, 1969

TherearenumerousoflegaltextsintheIraqiActofPunishmentswhichrevealseriousviolationsofwomenrightsandtensoftheissueddecisionsfromthePresi-dent of the regime which violate legislation and international obligations. Themostseriousviolationsare:1. ThepunishmentofexecutionforwomenintheActofPunishmentsandoutof

thecourtandjusticewhereexecutionagainstwomenisactedaccordingtoIraqipunishmentlawwhichwerequestedtobecancelledfromlaw.Operationsofexecutionwaspracticeddangerouslywithouttrialandauthorizedbypersonswhowerecalled(FidaeeSaddam)whichmeanssacrificersforSaddamtocuttheheadandbodysavagelybyswordwhichisaseriouscrimeagainsthumanrights,shouldnotkeepitsilentandthosewhocommitteditshouldbebroughttotrialandvictimsshouldbecompensatedaccordingtolaw.Suchbarbarousactionsshouldnotbeactedwhateverexcusesare.Inaddition,therehadbeenmurder, rape, and continuous torture against women in the prisons of theregimewhichneedsinvestigationteamstobesentforinvestigatingtherealityofhumanrightsinIraqandhandlingthecriminalswhoactedsuchcrimestothenationalandinternationalcourtofjustice.

2. The crime of adultery, honour murder and inequality of legal protectionbetweenmanandwoman;Thecrimeofhonourmurderisconsideredaseriouscrimewhichthreatenshumanrightsandfirstwomenrights incivilsociety,for which it requires all the essential steps to redeem this serious problemin Iraq and other Arab or Islamic countries. The Swedish daily newspaperDagensNyheterinSwedishlanguageon22ndJanuary2002publishedapartofthisproblemthroughtheavailablestatisticsaboutthiscrimewhichreferstohonourkillingasfollows:· about 25 to 40 crimes of murder urged by honour murder happen in

Jordanannually,· about400crimesofmurderoccurtowomeninYemenforhonourmurder

annually,· about60crimesofmurderoccurtowomeninIranforthesamereason,· about300 -500crimesofmurderhappentowomeninPakistanforthe

samereasonannually,

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· about 50 crimes of murder occur to women in Egypt for the reason ofhonourmurderannually.

ThereisnotaccuratestatisticsabouttheconditioninIraqandthiscrimespreadevenindiasporaandevennumerouscrimeshappenedinSwedenandothercoun-triesforfamilyhonourmurderwhichincreasesthiscrime.ThePunishmentlawinIraqdismantlestheinequalityinlegalprotectionbetweenmanandwomaninthiscrime.ThePunishmentlawbacksmanandputveryse-verepunishmentsonwomenwithoutpunishingthepersonwhocommitsit.

TorturingwomenandtreatingthembadlyduringimprisonmentperiodbeforetheirtrialBasedonplentyofdocumentswhichwerefoundduringthevictoriousuprisingin1991,thattherehadbeenaseriouspolicyactedbySaddam’sregimeagainstwomeninKurdistanandvariousareasinIraq,particularlyinsecretprisons,dur-ingtrialandcustody.Itwasobviousintheregime’sprisonsinSuleimanyaandprisonsofDuhokandotherareas.Alotofwomenwereexposedtorape,beating,maltreatment,andhangingthemontheirbreastsbyironinstrumentsfixedontheceilingoftheprisons.

ExamplesofviolationsofwomenrightsinIraqInAugust2001,Amnestyinternationalannouncedareport.TheMiddleEastAf-fairsDepartment(DocumentnumberMDE14-008-2001)onthetitle(Iraq-Theorganizedtortureforpoliticalprisoners).TheconditionofwomenrightsinIraqwasmentionedthereunderthetitle(Womenexposedtotortureoperations,mal-treatment,andexecutionoutofjusticeasfollows:Womeninareasunderthecontrolofcentralgovernmentwereexposedtotorture,maltreatmentandexecutionsoutof justiceinIraq,for instanceDr.SuadJihadShamsadin61yearswasexposedtoimprisonmentandseveretortureatherclinicinBaghdadon29thJune1999forsuspicionofhavingliaisonswithIraqiopposi-tion.Moreover,manywomenwereexposedtorapeandsexualabusetopressurizetheactiverelativeswhowereagainsttheregimeofSaddam.AndthecolonelN.S.receivedavideocassetteon7thofJune2000whichconfirmsthiscrime(p8fromthementionedreport).Inaddition,tensofheadsofwomenwhowereaccusedofprostitutionwerecutinOctober2000withoutanytrials(p8).Theheadsofmenwhowereaccusedofbeingpimpswerecut.AndtheseoperationswereperformedbytheattendanceofBaathPartyrepresentativesandGeneralUnionofIraqiWomen.Themilitiamili-tantsofSaddam’sSacrificershadcutheadsbyswordsinfrontofthehousesinagrotesquewayandmurderedalotofvictimsforpoliticalreasons(p8).AndDr.NajatMuhammadHeiderwasslaughteredinOctober2000ontheexcuse

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ofprostitutionbuttherealreasonwasthatshecriticizedthecorruptioninhealthsectorsandInstitutions.Moreover,theheadofotherIraqiwomennamed(UmHaider)wascutwithoutanyaccusationortrialin2000,shewasmarriedandhadthreechildrenbecauseofherhusband’sactivepolitical roleagainst theregimeandwhocouldmanagetofleehishomeland.Thepartsofthebodyweretakeninplasticbagstounknownplacebutthefateofchildrenremainedunknown(p9fromAmnestyInternationalreport).

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Following recent terrorist attacks in Istanbul, the International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana has analysed the events in Turkey and the region specially for the »Revija Obramba« (Defence magazine).

ISLAMIC TERRORISM KNOCKING AT THE EUROPEAN DOORTURKEY IN A QUANDARY BETWEEN THE SECULAR SYSTEM AND ITS ISLAMIC ROOTS

TheNovemberterroristattacksinIstanbulwerenotanexampleofclassicalat-tacksaimedatcollapsingthepoliticalandeconomicconditionsinastate.TheIstanbulattacksweresotosaymultipurposeandstruckseveraltargetsatthesametime.Inotherwords:theterroristssentseveralbloodstainedmessagestoseveraladdressesinIstanbul-theUSA,GreatBritain,Israel,NATO,EUandTurkeyasthesceneofdreadfulacts.TheuseoffourtruckbombsandsuicidalattacksprovethattheassaultsinIstan-bulwerenotanotherexampleofdomesticterrorismwhichhasbeenpresentinTurkeyforseveraldecades,butacaseofinternationalterrorism.Itincorporatedinternalandexternalelementsinallthephasesfromtheplanningtotherealisa-tion.Aftertheattackstwoorganisationsmadethemselvesknownsimultaneouslyandadmittedtheact:alQaedaasthesponsorandaTurkishorganisationcalledtheIslamicFrontofRaidersoftheGreatOrient(IBDA/C).TheofficialAnkarahasinterpretedtheattacksastheresultofeventsgoingonoutsidetheTurkishborders-itprobablyreferstotheoccupationofIraq,theIsrae-li-Palestinianissueandtheeconomiccrisisintheregion.Turkishterroristorgani-sationshadnamelyneverintheirhistoryusedsuchtacticsnorsuchmethods.TheIFIMESInternationalInstituteisoftheopinionthatTurkeyisabouttotakeatestinwhichthegovernmentwillhavetoanswerbravely,preciselyandconsist-entlythequestionsofvitalimportanceforthestabilityandexistenceofthesecularAtaturkrepublicofTurkeyinitspresentform.Terrorismhaschosennewtargetsandusednewmethods.Turkeywasnotchosenbychanceastheplaceofrecentassaults.Theterroristsusedthistargetforpoliti-cal,geopoliticalandsecurityreasons.TheTurkishreligiousfanaticism,whichwasbornandgrewinthesecularTurkishregimeunderviolentconditionscharacter-isticof thestates trying todoawaywithsuchreligiousorganisations,certainlytreatsthepro-IslamicAKPgovernmentastheenemynumberonesinceitstrivestobringtogethertheIslamicworldandtheWestandtolinkIslamismandsecular-ismwhichisofcoursenotintheinterestoftheextremistswhopreferconstantconfrontationandseetheWestinthelightofdialecticalmaterialismleadingto

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theirself-destruction.TheIslamicFrontofRaidersoftheGreatOrientcountingabout600militantswasestablishedbySalehMirzaBayoglu(now inTurkishprison) tenyearsagoduringthebloodyconflictsofthearmyandtheterroristPKK(KurdistanWorkersParty)intheturbulentsoutheastTurkey.SomeanalystscomparetheirrolewiththeroleoftheTurkishHezbolah.TheTurkisharmysupportedtheFrontduringthe15yearsoffightingagainsttheKurds(PKK).Ontheotherhand,someotheranalystsconnecttheIslamisticattackswiththeTurkishIntelligenceAgencywhichissubordinatetothearmy,butopposessomeoftheAKPmoves.ThistheoryissupportedbythestatementsofPrimeMinisterErdoganfollowingtheattackswhocriticisedtheTurkishIntelligenceAgencyforhavinginpossessiontheinformationontheattacksbutnotforwardingittothegovernmentpriortotheattackonthesynagogues.Onthedayoftheattackssev-eralsecurityandinformationmeetingswereheldondemandofPrimeMinister.Ontheotherhand,theArabanalystsofferacompletelydifferentexplanationfortheattacksconnectingthemwiththeIsraeliMosadwhichisapparentlyinterestedinthedestabilisationoftheTurkishgovernmentwhichhasbecometooclosewithSyriaandtheArabs.TheIFIMESInternationalInstitutebelievesthatterrorismisnotanewphenom-enonintheTurkishpoliticalfolklore.Duringthefirsthalfofthe1970sthestreetsofIstanbulandAnkarawerethesceneofsanguinaryclashesoftheleftandtheright.TheTurkishschoolofterrorismandviolencewasknownalsobeyondthenationalborders.ThefactisthatTurkishleftistswereregularvisitorsandinstruc-torsatthetraininggroundsofPalestinianextremistleft-wingorganisationssuchastheGerogeHabash’sPalestineLiberationFront(PFL).TheArmenianterroristorganisationswerealsoactiveduringthisperiodcarryingoutassassinationsofTurkishdiplomatsaroundtheworld.Furthermore,theKurd-ishMarxistPartyPKKcanbemarkedastheproductofleft-wingterrorism;itsfounder,AbdulahOçalan,wasamemberofthoseorganisationsintheearly1970s.UnliketheIraqiandIranianKurdswhodecidedtotakeotherways,PKKchosetheruthlesssanguinaryterrorismtoachievethenationalgoalsofthe12millionKurdsinTurkey.ManyanalystsrelatetheviolenceinTurkeytotheTurkishsecularismenforcedbythefounderofthemodernTurkey,KemalAtaturk.ThisisevidentfromtheroleandthebehaviouroftheTurkisharmyinthepoliticalandculturallifeofthestatewhichhasleftthetracesintheTurkishsociety.Althoughmodernandsecular,theTurkish school system, based on Ataturk’s heritage which recognises violence,revengeandglorificationoftheTurkishhistory,contributedtosuchsocialguide-lines.However,suchideologyofviolenceisnotrelatedonlytothesituationinTurkey

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butalsototheforeignpolicyofthestate.LetusrecalltheTurkishconflictswithEurope,Greece,Cyprus,Russia,Armenia,Bulgaria,Iraq,IranandSyria.Theeco-nomicproblemsarealsothegeneratorsofextremistideaswhichfindtheirwaytothosewhoaredesperateandwhoseethesolutiontotheprobleminthereligiousandsalvationbelief.

THE ROLE OF AL QAEDA

ThealQuaedaterroristnetworkassumedtheresponsibilityrightaftertheattacksandthusconfirmedtheassumptionofsecurityexpertsthatalQaedanolongercarriesouttheoperationsitselfbutratheradvisesothersonterrorism.AlQaedadecideddotakethisroleafterthedefeatoftheTalibanregimeinAf-ghanistanandaftersufferingseverestrokesagainstitsinfrastructureandfinanc-ing. Its tasksarenowrealisedbyminorterroristgroups in individualcountriesoperatingautonomouslyanddecidingfreelyonthetimeandthetargets.Al Qaeda, formerly the »University of Terrorism«, has become a universal in-ternationalumbrellaorganisationcoveringat least30largeorganisations.Theycommunicate most likely through the Internet and in this was receive advice,instructionsandexchangeexperienceforthepreparationofattacks.Thegreatestproblemforthesecuritybodiesisthefactthatthosegroupsarenotlocatedwithincertaingeographicarea.

THE ISTANBUL ATTACKS AND EUROPE

AftertheIstanbulattacksEuroperaisedthealarmfearingthattheTurkishsitua-tioncouldaffecttheEuropeansecurity.Afterall,TurkeyisaNATOmemberandthereforealltheNATOstateswereassaulted.GreatestalarmwasraisedinGer-manywheretheterrorismalertwasheightened.TheGermanfearistheproductofastrongTurkisheconomic-politicalmigrationgroupofover2millionworkersorGermancitizensofTurkishoriginamongwhichTurkishextremistorganisationsmostprobablyhavetheirmembersorfollowers.ThealarmingreportofthecriminalofficeinWiesbadenfurthersupportstherea-sonsforconcern.TheofficehasconfirmedtheassumptionsthattheIslamicFrontofRaidersoftheGreatOrienthasitsmembersandfollowersamongtheTurksinGermanyandthat(sincetheattacks)theyhavebeenunderstrictcontrol.ThereportisbasedontheinformationfromwhichitisevidentthattheFronthasbeenoperatinginEuropesince1995andthatoneofitsbasesislocatedinGer-many.Theorganisationcarriedoutthefirstattackin1996whentheTurkishdem-onstratorsburnttheTurkishculturalcentreinHanoverasasignofdisapprovalofthepro-EuropeanpoliticsofthegovernmentinAnkara.Thiswasfollowedbyan

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attackattheTurkishconsulateinDusseldorfin2001.YilmazZafir,memberoftheorganisation,confirmedfortheGermantelevisionthat theorganisationhas8 independentunits inGermanyand that in caseofGermanmilitaryparticipationinIraqtheywouldattackthetargetsinthestate,addingthatIstanbulwasonlyasmalltestforthefuturegreateraction.Inthein-terviewZafirconfirmedthattheorganisationregularlysends500ofitsbulletinsfromTurkeytoGermany.Theanalystsbelievethattheorganisationhasseveralhundredsympathisersandabout 40 members in Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Sweden. InsuchatmosphereofalarmtheGermanpoliticiansstartedthediscussionononehand in favourofandon theotherhandagainst the fastassociationofTurkeywiththeEU.TheleadingcoalitionofSPDandtheGreenPartyisinfavourofthefastaccessionofTurkeywhiletheright-wingconservativeCDU-CSUoppositionwarnsthattheaccessionofTurkeywouldmeanopeningtheEuropeandoorwidetoterrorism.According to the opinion of the IFIMES International Institute Turkey standsatthecrossroadsandshouldtakepromptactioninordertoresolveitsinternalproblemsandcarryoutitspoliticalandeconomicreformsaccordingtotheEUcriteria.TurkeywillhavetoreviseitssecuritypolicyandmoderniseitssecurityservicesinlinewiththeEuropeanstandardssothattheintelligenceagencywouldnolongerbesubordinatetothearmygeneralstaffbuttothepresidentofthestateandtoprimeminister.Initsantiterroriststrategy,Turkeywillhavetodifferentiatebetweenitsinternalterrorismandtheterrorismaimedat theUSA,GreatBritainandIsrael.Thesecountriesarefacingnonational,economic,political,culturalandsocialproblemssothatthepossibilityoftheirinternalterrorismissotospeakruledout.IFIMESbelievesthattheintentionsofSyriaintherelationswithTurkeyarenotofseriousnature.Thehandingoverof22allegedterroristsresponsiblefortheat-tackinIstanbulattheendofNovember2003representsonlyapoliticalmoveofDamaskintheframeworkofitsforeignpolicyanddoesnotcomplywiththespiritoftheSyrian-TurkishSecurityAgreementwhichwassignedinAdanain1998.TheimmediatehandingoveroftheallegedterroristsbySyriaisincontradictionwiththebasesitoffersinitsterritorytovariousterroristgroups(Hamas,Jihad,Usud, Ansar alIslam, al-Faruk Brigades, the Army of Mohamed), and to themembers of the overthrown Iraqi regime. Turkish co-operation with Syria andIran,whichsupportterrorism,shouldnotonlybeaimedatresolvingthesocalledKurdishissueinIraq,butrathertofindthemodelforregionalco-operationtocombatterrorismwhichactuallyoperatesfromSyriaandIran.AnyothersolutioncaninflameandbringuptheKurdishissueinTurkey(12millionKurds),Iran(8million)andSyria(1.5million),theArmenianissue,theCyprusissueandtheis-

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sueofKurds,ArabsandAzersinIran.InthefutureTurkeywillhavetodefineclearlyitsviewpointsontheregionalco-operationandaccessiontotheEU.FollowingfromtheaboveitiscertainlynotintheinterestofTurkeytorequestfortheobserverstatusintheArableagueashasbeenrequestedbyIranalthoughthetwostatesarenotArabatall.

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Assist. Kristina Plavšak-Krajnc, MIAFaculty of Social Sciences University of Ljubljana andMember of International Institute IFIMES

»Regional Security and Cooperation in South-Eastern Europe«Inter-University Center Dubrovnik

COMMUNICATING SECURITY AND COOPERATIONIN SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPEROLE OF PUBLIC OPINION, MEDIA AND COMMUNICATION INTRODUCTION

Communicationisthelubricantofeverysociety.Communicativeinteractionex-plainspoliticalbehaviorandpreconditionsanylastingcommunitiesofintegrationastheyrelyon:»amatterofmutualsympathyandloyalties;of‘we-feeling’,trust,andmutualconsideration;ofpartialidentificationintermsofself-imagesandin-terests;ofmutuallysuccessfulpredictionsofbehavior,andofcooperativeactioninaccordancewithit-inshort,amatterofperpetualdynamicprocessofmutualattention,communication,perceptionofneeds,andresponsivenessintheprocessofdecision-making.«(Deutschetal.1957:36)AlsodemocracyandpoliticalstabilityinSouth-EasternEuropetodaystronglyrelyonprovisionsforfreedomofspeech,professionalmediaactivityandresponsiblepubliccommunication.Throughyearsmedia largelycontributedtoconflicts intheregionnotmerelybybiasedreporting,butbysystematicprovisionoflegitima-cytototalitarianleadershipsandbyconstructionofthewaritself-nationalizing,mobilizingandemotionalizingthepublicspherebyuseofspecific»patrioticjour-nalism«and»warpropaganda«techniques(Hrvatin&Trampuz2000).Thus,thefallofpreviousnon-democraticregimesandtheendofwarintheregionbroughtaboutsuddenchangesforwhichtheneweliteswereinsufficientlypreparedfor.They have been facing major problems with general transition in the mediasphere,establishmentofmedialegalframework,professionalworkandeducationofjournalists,publicrelationsofficers,stateofficialsandotherpeopleinvolvedwithpubliccommunication.Thereexistsatruedangerofillpracticesinthefieldofmediaregulation,mediaownershipandprivatization,aswellasinmediarela-tionsandpubliccommunicationactivities.Allthesedevelopmentsinthemediafieldhavebeenobservedbymostof thekey international institutions involvedwithmaintenanceofpeace,stabilityandhumanrightsintheregionandinEuropeatlarge,whichhavealsoattemptedtoprovideassistanceinthisrespect.This paper will explore the role of public opinion, media and communication

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activitiesconcerningsecurity,peacekeepingandintegrationinsocietiesofSouth-EasternEurope. Itattempts tomove further fromthecommondebateson thetopic,notmerelyshowingthatmedia,publicopinionandcommunicationintheregiondomatter,butmoreimportantly,howandwhytheinteractionprocesses(can/should)takeplaceintherealenvironmentsofSouth-EasternEurope.First,itwill introduceglobal trends inmediaandcommunication,reshaping interna-tionalaffairs,alteringconductandperceptionsofforeignpolicy,diplomacyandwar.Inaddition,theroleofpublicopinionasthe»newinternationalforce«willbediscussed.Furtheron, Iwilladdress thequestionhow(can/should) foreignpolicyandsecurity»speak«topeople.Thiswillleadtoanoutlineofmaininitia-tivesandprojectsbyinternationalorganizations(OSCE,CouncilofEuropeandStabilityPact forSouthEasternEurope inparticular) in themediaandpublicdiplomacyfield.Iwillconcludewithastudyof(potential)Sloveneinvolvementinthisrespect,withsomerelevantproposalsandotherpolicyrecommendationstothisaim.

BRAVE NEW MEDIA WORLD

Intoday’sworldofarevolutionincommunicationsandinformationaswellasofglobalinterdependency,amedialisedpoliticsbecameageneralreality.Onecanobservesuchatrendspecificallyinthefieldofinternationalandforeignaffairswherestateandotheractorsusecommunicationchannelsandpublicrelationstoalargeextenttoimproveonthecontentandinparticular,ontheimageoftheirpolicies.Inanewmedia-dominatedgoverningsysteminternationaltelevisionnet-workslikeCNNbroughtabout»theconstitutionofaworldwidehomogeneouslytime-zonedbiospolitikon, instantaneouslyaffectingworldwidepolitical actionorinteractionviapressconferencesorpublicresolutionstransmittedaroundtheworld«(Volkner,1999:3&Thussu,2000:12).Onearguesthatamajorshareofbilateralandmultilateralrelationsamongstatesisshapedbytheinternationalme-dia,orviceversa,thatallmajor»wars«are»fought«throughthemedia(Ammon2001;Gilboa2001;Thussu2000).Furthermore,»therealpolitikoftheneweraiscyberpolitik«inwhichtheactorsarenolongerjuststatesandrawpowercanbecountedorfortifiedbyinforma-tionpower.Internettechnologiesenablevirtualcommunitiestounitetocountergovernmentefforts,fromuseofviolencetotheclosingoffofexistingmediachan-nels.Thesetaketheircasestotheinternationalcourtofpublicopinion,whoseinfluenceoverstateshasgrownasitsmeanstoreachanevergreateraudiencehasmultiplied.Aworldwidenetworkisthekeyfeatureoftheenvironmentinwhichdiplomatsandgeneralsoperate(Rothkopf,1997:325-330).These revolutionary changes have altered the meaning and understanding of

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power in contemporary worldpolitics.Anationor leader’s image and controlofinformationflow,andnotjusttheirmilitaryandeconomicpower,contributetotheirstatusininternationalaffairs.Powerispassingfromthe»capital-rich«tothe»information-rich«,»softpower«countsmoreandmore.Thisistheabilitytoachievedesiredoutcomesininternationalaffairsthroughattractionratherthancoercion. Itworksby convincingothers to follow,or getting them to agree to,normsandinstitutionsthatproducethedesiredbehaviour.Softpowercanrestontheappealofone’sideasortheabilitytosettheagendainwaysthatshapethepreferencesofothers(Nye1990;Nye&Owens1996).Therefore,nowadayspoliticalleadersspendasmuchtimeexplainingorjustifyingaconflicttotheirpublicopinionandtothemediaastheyactuallydorunningthem.OrasputinthewordsofNATOspokesman:»Theabilityofthemediatodramatiseeventsandcreateaglobalaudienceforaconflictputspolicymakersunderpressuretotakedecisionsfasterandwithlesstimeforreflectionthanatanyprevioustimeinhumanhistory.«(Shea,1999:5)However,onemustandcankeepincontrol:»Leadershavetodominatethemediaandnotbedominatedbyit.Successfulconflictscannotbemediadriven.Winningthemediacampaignisjustasimportantaswinningthemilitarycampaign.«(Shea1999:8)Thisrealisationholdstruealsoforpeacekeepingoperations:»Nomatterhowconvincingone’sstrategicrationaleforagivenpolicymightbe,itmust,aboveall,beunderstoodbyabroaderpublic,orelse itmightnotbepoliticallysustainable.«(Robertson2001a)Thus,tosecureasteadyprogressofthestabilisationprocessinpost-warregionsliketheSouth-EasternEurope,ithastobemanagedcarefully,ifitistosucceedinthelongrun,withdeterminedengagement,patienceandcooperation,alsoinrespecttomediaandpubliccommunication(Robertson2001b).

PUBLIC OPINION - MAY FORCE BE WITH YOU

Publicopinion,largelyshapedbythemedia,hasbecomeevenmoreinfluentialinforeignaffairsasbeforeandnowadaysrepresentsthecommonarbiteramongcompeting policies, politicians, and statesmen (Ammon 2001: 84-86). Whendebating the roleofpublicopinion, twocontradictory linesof thought canbedistinguished,thefirstarguingaboutthevolatilityandinadequacyofpublicopin-ionasastableandeffectiveforeignpolicy,whereasthesecondconsiderspublicattitudesquite stable and consistentover timeandactually exercising a stronginfluence on foreign policy-making (Risse-Kappen 1991). Some authors claimthattheanalysisofpublicopinionisusuallyone-sided,takingintoaccountonlythe impactof somethingcalled»thepopulace«on the statesman, thediplomatorthemilitaryleader.»Publicopinion,however,isnotanautonomousforce;itis frequentlyorganisedbyvoluntaryorganisationsoraspecificpoliticalgroup«

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(Sofer1991:73).Empiricalresearchprovedthatthepolicyimpactonpublicopiniondoesnotde-pendsolelyonthespecificissuesinvolvedorontheparticularpatternofpublicattitudesasmoreonthedomesticstructuresandthecoalition-buildingprocessesintherespectivecountry(Risse-Kappen1991).Here,alsotheforeignpolicyelitestakeaconsideraterolewhiletranslatingtheirdecisions,moves,positionstopub-licopinion(Almond1960).Thus,astudysuggeststhatpublicpossessesgeneralorientationsthathelptoinformandanchoritsopinionsonspecificforeign-policyissues.Whilepoliticaljudgmentsintheinternationalspheremustbemadeunderconsiderableuncertaintyandwithoutmanyoftheinterpretativeaidscommonlyused inthedomesticarena,publicrelieson itsgeneralknowledgetoguidetheprocessingofmorespecificinformation(Hurwitz&Peffley1987).Therefore,oneshouldanalysepublicopinionandforeignpolicy,aswellasdiplomacy,asintheprocessofinteraction,constructingeachotherthroughexistentdomesticcoali-tionsandpolicynetworks,inthecontextofdomesticsocieties(Plavšak1996).Thepublic’sunderstandingintherespectivepost-warregionisinitiallyinfluencedby perceptions of how and why the peacekeeper is there in the first instance(Kiehl2001:136).Publics,thus,donotexistinavacuum,patientlyawaitinganInformationOperationmessagefromtheinterveners.Intheabsenceofacoordi-natedinformationpolicyonthepartofthemultinationalforce,theinformationvacuumwillbefilledbythosewhoseintentionsarehostiletotheinterestsoftheforce.Politicaland/ormilitaryleadersmaymisrepresentpublicopiniontojustifytheirownagendas(Kiehl2001:139).Itisimportanttonotethatpublicopinionacrosstheregionisdominatedbydaytodayconcernssuchaspoverty,inflationandcorruption,astotheSEEPublicAgendaSurvey,thefirsteverprofessionalmeasurementofpublicopinionunder-takensimultaneouslythroughoutSouth-EasternEurope.Thesepublicconcerns,however, have little connection with ethnic, historical and international issueswhichatleastasectionoftherulingeliteintheregionconsidersimportant.Inaddition,thesurveyalsorevealsacriticallackoftrustinofficialinstitutionsofallkinds,domesticorinternational,accrosstheregionasasawhole,withthenotableexceptionofKosovo.Thisinitselfcanrepresentanimportantobstacletodevelop-ment,aslackoftrustmeansalackofrespectforrulesandlaws.

HOW FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY SPEAK TO PEOPLE?

»Foreignpolicydoesnotnecessarilyhaveto‘shoutloudlytobeheardalittle’;itsimplyhastospeakclearlyandinfamiliarterms,perhapsrattlingafewsabersforemphasis.«(Hurwitz&Peffley1987:1115)Scholarsandpracticionersagreethatifpolicy-makerswanttosettheagendaandnotleaveittothemedia,theymust

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haveone.Theexistenceofpolicythatcancommandpublicsupportagainstemo-tionalswingsstirredupbytelevisionimageryiskey.Intheabsenceofpersuasivegovernmentstrategy,themediawillbecatalytic(Hoge1994:2).Therefore,inthe»mediashaped«worldpublicdiplomacy,definedas»thewayinwhichbothgov-ernmentandprivateindividualsandgroupsinfluencedirectlyorindirectlythosepublicattitudesandopinionswhichbeardirectlyanothergovernment’s foreignpolicydecision,«(SignitzerandCoombs1992:138),adoptsnewdimensions,be-ingconcernedwithmediaandcommunicationmanagement,andassomeargue,developingtoagenuine»communicativeaction«(Lose2001).Whilecombining»soft«methodsofmediaandpublicrelations,ononesideandontheother,also»hard«methodsofpersuasionandpropaganda,moreor lesscoveredinsubtleformsofcultural,education,promotionetc.programmes,itat-temptstobypasstheconstraintsofforeigngovernmentsandreachdirectlyintotheheartsandmindsofforeignaudiences.Hereby,thetraditional»highpolitics«groundsbecomeanever-widening,»allwalksoflife«arenathatencompassesnon-governmentalorganisations,multinationalcorporations,regionalandlocalgov-ernments,academicinstitutions,mediaandotherimportantplayers.Therefore,alsotheactorsinpublicdiplomacycannolongerbeconfinedtotheprofessionofdiplomatsbutincludevariousindividuals,groupsandinstitutionswhoengageininternationalandinterculturalcommunicationactivitieswhichdohaveabear-ingonthepoliticalrelationshipsbetweentwocountries.(SignitzerandCoombs1992:139)Specificcommunicationactivitiessupportalsopeacekeepingoperations -Inter-nationalPublic Informationencompasses traditional civilianpublicdiplomacy,publicaffairsandpressrelations,internationaleducationalandotherexchanges,professionalmediatraining,internationalbroadcastingaswellastraditionalovertmilitaryinformationoperations,pressrelations,publicaffairsandpsychologicaloperations.Herepublicdiplomacyincludestheusebythecivilianforeignpolicyestablishmentofpersonalcontacts,pressandmultimediatools,trainingandlong-termexchangeprogrammesinordertoinformforeignpublicsofagivenpolicy,affectattitudespositivelytowardsthatpolicyandinfluencebehaviourfavourableto the foreign policy interests of the state employing it (Kiehl 2001: 138-145).Whenmilitaryinformationoperationtakesplaceintheabsenceofcivilianpublicdiplomacyorwithoutclosecoordinationbetweenmilitaryandcivilianpraction-ersofinformationoperationandpublicdiplomacy,thereisaveryrealdangerofcounter-productiveoperationsandworkingatcross-purposes(Kiehl2001:140).»Effectivecommunicationhelpstodispelrumour,tocounterdisinformationandtosecurethecooperationofthelocalpopulations.Itcanprovideleverageindeal-ingwithleadersofrivalgroups,enhancesecurityofUNpersonnelandservesasaforcemultiplier.«(Kiehl2001:144)

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INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS IN ADDRESSING LOCAL SITUATIONS

AnycommunicationprogrammeorprojectintheSouth-EasternEuropeshouldbetailoredtoeachspecificenvironment,withspecificeconomic,political,social,cultural,mediasituation,withspecificneedsandperceptionsoflocalpopulation,includingunderstandingofsecurityinallitscomplexityanddiversedimensions.Howdoinitiativesandactivitiesbyinternationalorganisationsmeetsuchrequire-ments?

OSCEThroughdifferentstagesofCSCE/OSCEevolutiononecanobserveaconsistentpromotionandupgradingoffreedomofexpression,freeflowofinformationandfreedomofmediaasbasichumanrights.Inordertoensureevenhigherlevelofcommitmentwiththenormsandstandardsaccepted,thepositionoftheOSCERepresentativeonFreedomoftheMediawasestablishedandFreimutDuveofGermanywasappointedtotakeovertheViennabasedofficeinDecember1997.Hismandatestemsfromtherealisationthat»freedomofexpressionisafunda-mentalandinternationallyrecognisedhumanrightandabasiccomponentofademocraticsocietyandthatfree,independentandpluralisticmediaareessentialtoa freeandopen societyandaccountable systemsofgovernment«.He is en-dowedwiththetasktoobserverelevantmediadevelopmentsinallparticipatingStatesandtoadvocateandpromotefullcompliancewithOSCEprinciplesandcommitmentsregardingfreedomofexpressionandfreemedia.Here,heassumesanearly-warningfunctioninrelationtogovernments,parliaments,themediaandNGOs,andconcentratesonrapidresponsetoseriousproblemscausedby,interalia,obstructionofmediaactivitiesandunfavourableworkingconditionsforjour-nalists.The latterareaddressedeither through interventionswithgovernmentsandvisits,orbyoutliningissuesandproblemsthatarecharacteristicofmorethanoneparticipatingstate,forexample,so-called»censorshipbykilling«,»structuralcensorship«,misuseoflibelanddefamationlaws,valueaddedtaxesonthemediaetc.AreportonInternationalAssistancetoMediainSoutheasternEurope,commis-sionedbytheOSCERepresentativeonFreedomoftheMediaandpreparedbyMarkThompson, closely looked intomanyobstacles facedby the localmediaandgovernmentsinestablishingfreejournalisticmediaintheregion.Itwasanimportantlessons-learnedstudyasitattemptedtoaddressquestionsofhowthein-ternationalcommunitycanhelpandwhethertherewasaneedforarelevantlegis-lationtobeintroducedbytheinternationalcommunity.ItshowedthatOSCEhasbeenthemaininternationalorganisationinvolvedwiththematterofpost-conflict

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mediadevelopment.OfficeswiththisparticulartaskareoperationinBosniaandHerzegovinaandKosovo,OSCEMissions inCroatiaandMacedonia(FYMO)alsodealwith support andassistance to independentmedia.Afterdemocraticchangesattheendofyear2000anOSCEMissionwasnewlyestablishedintheFederal Republic of Yugoslavia, carrying an important media mandate. In hiscapacityasOSCERepresentativeonFreedomoftheMedia,FreimutDuvehasdonehisutmosttoimprovethemediasituationinSerbiaandcounterthestatepropaganda:»...thebasicquestionsofcommonsecurityfocustoday,aquarter-cen-turylater,onotherissues:aboveall,onhowthealwayslatentdangerofethnicallymotivatedpropaganda,andtheinstrumentalizationofthemediaforthatpurpose,canbecountered.«

CouncilofEuropeFormanyyears,theCouncilofEuropehascarriedoutawiderangeofactivitiesaimedatguaranteeingandpromotingfreedomofexpressionandinformationandfreedomof themedia in thecountriesofSouth-EasternEurope, inaccordancewiththeprinciplesenshrinedinArticle10oftheEuropeanConventiononHu-manRightsandotherCouncilofEuropelegalandpolitical instruments inthemediasector.InrespecttotheregiontheCouncil’sMediaDivisionattemptstosetoutaregulatoryframeworkforfreedomofexpressionandthemediainlinewithCouncilofEuropestandards,andtoensurethattheday-to-dayapplicationoftheregulatoryframeworkcomplieswiththesestandardsandthatthemediacandevel-opinsuchawayastopromoteaclimateoftoleranceandmutualunderstanding.Itsbilateral and regionalactivities include theorganisationof informationandawareness-raising activities forofficial circles (judges, civil servants, regulatoryauthorities)andtrainingactivitiesformediacompaniesandprofessionalswhichcomplementsthelegislativeexpertiseundertheCouncilofEurope’sco-operationandassistanceprogrammes.Consequently,ajointinitiativebytheCouncilofEuropeandtheEuropeanUnionwasmadetoadaptthelegalframeworkinthemediafieldinSouth-EasternEu-rope,inparticularinSerbiaandMontenegro.Thisprovidesanurgentassistancetothemediaexpertswhoarepreparinganewlegislativeframeworkforthemedia,andassistalsothecompetentministriesandotherpublicauthoritiesinthefurtherpreparationandsubsequentapplicationofnewlawsandregulations.Aseriesofawareness-raisingandtrainingactivities,expertandadvisorymissions,aswellasexpertconferenceshavebeenorganisedandcarriedoutintheareasofbroadcast-ingsector,generalmedialawandEuropeanstandardsoffreedomofexpression.

StabilityPactOn8June2000,theRegionalTableoftheStabilityPactadoptedtheCharterfor

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MediaFreedom,adocumentwhichconstitutesbasicgroundsforstrengtheningindependenceofthemediaintheregion.Hereby,theparticipatingstatesoftheStabilityPactacknowledged»thatfreedomofthemedia,freeflowofinformationandideasandopendiscussion,withouttheinterferenceofpublicauthorities,playafundamentalroleinthedevelopmentoffree,stableanddemocraticsocieties;areprerequisites for theestablishmentofmutualunderstandingandgood rela-tionsamongstatesandtheirpeoples«.Besidethat,theystressedtheneed»foramoreactiveandbetterinformedpublicdebateinordertoachievetheobjectivesofpeace,stabilityandmutualunderstandingthatunderpintheStabilityPact«,aswellas»forcooperationamongmediaprofessionalsfromtheregioncontributestoenhancingmutualconfidenceandreducingtheriskoftensionsinSouthEast-ernEurope«.The governments, the interested parties and organisations associated with theStabilityPactobligedthemselvestocooperatetoprotectfreedomofexpressionand to encourageobservation and implementationof the leadingprinciplesoffreemedia.Herespecialattentionhasbeenpaidtothefollowing:mediaandotherrelevantlawsinaccordancetointernationalstandardsandcommitments,includ-ingdefamationlawsandattemptsforcensorship;developmentofpluralisticandaccessibleelectronicandprintedmedia;provisionsforeconomicindependenceofthemedia,forfreeaccesstoinformation,formediaaccessbyminorities,andforprotectionofjournalisticsources;developmentofmedianetworksintheregion;legalframeworkforPublicServiceBroadcastersandstatenewsagencies;estab-lishment of independent broadcasting regulatory bodies; importance of mediacodesofethicsandself regulation;enactmentof lawsrelatedto theuseof themediatoinciteunlawfulactsofracism,xenophobiaorviolence;promotionofthehigheststandardsofprofessionaljournalism,includingindependentanddiverseinformationandopinion.Accordingly,MediaTaskForce,whichwas establishedwithin theWorkingTa-bleonDemocratisationandHumanRights,preparedanActionPlanoutliningnecessarystepstoimplementtheprovisionoftheMediaCharter.TheseincludethepublicationandpromotionoftheMediaCharter;establishmentofnationalcontactpointsandworkinggroups;preparationofcountry-specificwork-plans;developmentofregionalco-operationinthemediafield;enhancementoftheMe-diaTaskForceitself;supportfortheindependentmediaintheFRY;encourage-mentoflocalownership;andintensifiedeffortstoinformStabilityPactpartnersanddonorsaboutactivitiesof theMediaTaskForce.By theendofyear2000donorscommitted in total29.25mioEuro to30mediaprojects in the region,coveringmediaeducationandtraining,mediaassistance,supportformediainsti-tutionsandnetworksintheregion,mediaprogrammesforFRYandBosniaandHerzegovinaetc.Todate,WorkingGroupshavebeenestablishedinBosniaand

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Herzegovina,Croatia,MacedoniaandSerbia.WhiletheMediaTaskForceworkscloselywithcountryworkinggroups,itattemptstoinvolvelocalmediaprofession-alsintheassesmentofprojects;tostimulateassistancetolocalorganisationswithaproven track recordand to forge closer coopeationbetweendonors, existing(local)organisationsdonorsandgovernmentrepresentatives.InMediaTaskForce’slateststrategy(2001-2004)onestatesthat»despitepositivedevelopments, themedia inSouthEasternEuropearestillhamperedbypoliti-calinfluencing,economicdependance,lackofsoundjournalismtraining,weakprofessionalstructuresand-inmanycases-anunclearandunfinishedlegislativeframework.«Accordingly, further activitieswill focuson the followingareasofaction:lawsandregulation,transformationofstatetopublicmedia,supportforprivateandindependentmedia,regionalcooperation,professionalism,minorities,contentandarchiving.Plannedprojectsincludeconcreteactivitieslikelegalas-sistancefordecriminalisingdefamation,South-EasternTVNewsExchange,train-ingjournalismtrainersfornetworkofcentres,permanenteducationofjournalistsfromSouth-EasternEurope,Summerschoolforyoungacademicsinjournalism,BetaEconomicnewsservice,videoletters,episodesonbreakdownofJNA,inves-tigativeprogrammeonwar-relatedissuesetc.

SLOVENIA - SHINNY STAR IN THE BALKANS?

ItiscommonlyacknowledgedthatSloveniaplaysaconsiderableroleasabridgebetweenEuropeancountriesandSouth-EasternEurope,exportingstabilityandcooperationtotheregion.OrasputbyformerUSPresidentClintonduringhisvisittoSloveniaon21June1999:»WemustbuildaEuropewithnofrontlinestates-aEuropeundivided,democratic,andatpeaceforthefirsttimeinhistory.AndSloveniacanleadtheway.«ThispointwasagainmadeinMay2002attheopen-ingofInternationalPressInstitute’sWorldCongress,thelargestglobalmeetingofjournalists,editors,media,governments’andinternationalorganisations’repre-sentatives,whichwasheld,withnocoincidence,inLjubljana:»TheSlovenianme-diaprofoundlyinfluencedandenabledthepoliticalreforms,andhelpedtoinitiatethesecessionfromBelgrade,whichendedonJune25,1991withthedeclarationofindependence.«WiththerealisationthatthemediawastragicallyentwinedinthedeadlycycleofviolenceintheBalkans,thedebatesatLjubljanaIPICongressfocusedonwhatwentwrongintheBalkans,andonspecificquestionsofhowtoguaranteeeditorial independenceandhow toprotect journalists in the regionsofconflict.IPI’saffiliate,theSouthEastEuropeMediaOrganisation(SEEMO)organisedatopicalseminaron»TheMediaandConflictPreventionintheFormerYugoslavRepublicofMacedonia«.Thus,on theconcrete level,howmuch isSlovenia truly involvedwithcommu-

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nicatingsecurityandcooperationintheregion?HereoneshouldpointouttoastudycaseofahighlysuccessfulprojectwithintheStabilityPactanditsexcellentimplementationalsoincommunicationrespect,i.e.theInternationalTrustFundforDeminingandMineVictimsAssistanceinBosniaandHerzegovinaandtheresponding communication strategy »To Heal the Wounds of Earth and Soul«whichinOctober2000receivedaprestigiousawardforpublicrelationsprojectswithsocialprojectsbyInternationalPublicRelationsAssociationincooperationwiththeUnitedNations(Asanin&Vercic2000:126-132).Otherwise,evidenceshowsthatSlovenia(again)takesamorelaidbackapproach,withlittleconcertedactionandmainlythrougheffortsbyindividualexperts.Thoughco-chairingtheStabilityPact’sWorkingTableonDemocratisationandHumanRights(January-June2001),Slovenia’sworkingplanincludedmerelyaworkshoponDemocratisa-tionandSupportfortheIndependentMediainSouth-EasternEurope(bySloveneMinistriesofForeignAffairsandofCulture);anexpertconferenceoftheAssist-ingElectronicMediaintheSouth-EasternEuropeanCountries(SloveneMinistryofCulture,Slovenemediaorganisations);andaninternationalconferenceonleg-islationinthefieldofradioandtelevision-PublicServicesandCommercialTVandRadio(SloveneMinistryofEducation,ScienceandSport,SloveneNationalCommissionforUNESCO).Sofarnoworkinggroupofmediaprofessionalshasbeenestablished,andasolenon-governmentalorganisation,ispartlyinvolvedwiththemediaprojectsfortheregion.TheCenterforMediaPolicyatthePeaceInstitutefocusesonthestrenght-heningofthemediacommunityinSlovenia,theinclusionofexpertsinthedraft-ingofmedialegislation,andthesetting-upofself-regulationandaccountabilitysystemswithintheSlovenemedia.Besides,itencouragesinternationalcontacts,theregionalandinternationalcooperationofmediacompaniesandprofessionalassociations,organisesconferencesanddiscussions,developstraining,fellowshipand exchange programes for journalists and media experts, in particular fromSouth-EasternEurope.

CONCLUSION - A LOOK AHEAD

Theoutlinedprojectsand initiativesbykeyEuropean institutions in themediafieldsurelyworktowardacommonaiminalongrun-establishing»rulesofthegame«forplayersinthepublic/mediaspaceandthereby,providinggroundsforsecurity and stability, as well as for further integration and cooperation. Theyarewellawareofthefactthatthewesternmodeloffreemediaanddemocraticcommunicationcannotbesimplycopied,butrathertransferredtotheparticularpolitical,socialandculturalenvironmentofthetargetedcountriesintheregion.Still theverysensitive factorofpublicopinion - theperceptionsof thegeneral

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population,specificinterestgroupsandopinionleaders,iscomplextohandleandthat’swhy,itisoftendifficulttobaserelevantprojectstrulyonlocalneedsandinitiatives.Heretheyusediversifiedapproacheswhichallinall,producebothef-fects,ofoverlappingandofcomplementarity.TheOSCERepresentativeforFreedomofMediaappearsthemostprogressiveinhis»political/publicappeal«authority,adequatelysupportedbyamedia-develop-mentfunctionoftheinstitution.TheCouncilofEuropeconsistentlyfollowsthelineofitsleadingprinciplesofhumanrightsprotectionalsointhemediafield,providingexpertiseandassistanceonthemostimportantquestionsoftransitionlikenewmediaandbroadcastinglegislationintheregion.NATOinitseffortstocompensateforcommunicationfailuresduringitsinterventionontheFRYtriesto focusonbroader(public) implicationsof its securityandmilitaryactivities.AlsoEuropeanUnionwillhavetoworkmoreinthisdirectionifitwantstoef-fectivelystrengthentheroleof itsCommonForeignandSecurityPolicy intheSouth-EasternEurope.ApotentialinfrastructureforsynergyofalltheseactivitiesisofferedandalsoincreasinglyusedwithintheStabilityPact.However,stillmoreeffortisneededtoprovideforahighervisibilityoftheMediaTaskForceactivitiesandacloserinvolvementoflocalpartnersinitsprojects.Thiswouldalsocontrib-utetobetterstateofbeinginformedabouttheStabilityPactandthereby,boostitsoverallpositiveimageinthecountriesoftheregion.InmyopinionSloveniacanshareitsuniqueexperienceoftransitionwithothercountriesintheregionandhelpthemtoavoidmistakesinthisfield.Furthermore,Sloveniawithitsinfrastructureandknow-howcouldbecomeameetingpointandacommunicationnetworkforsetting,strengtheningandpromotingstandardsinpubliccommunication;ensuringandimprovingtransparencyofmediaregulation,media law practice and media ownership in the region; offering information,advise and expertise in the field of media and communication; educating forprofessionaljournalisticandPRpracticesintheregion;supportingcreativecom-municationprojectsintheregionetc.

Sloveniashouldand/orcould»leadtheway«underthefollowingheadings:1. Media regulation: In the process of passing a new media legislation in all

targetedcountries,Sloveniaprotagonistsshouldattempttoconnectlegalandmediaexpertsandprofessionalsintheregion,preparingthenewlegislationin accordance with the Council of Europe’s and the European Union’sprovisions. Particular questions should be addressed in expert forums: theroleofpublictelevision,protectionofjournalists,developmentofprofessioncodes of conduct, establishment of press and media councils or complaintcommissions.ASloveneinstitutionshouldprovidealsoforaneasilyaccessibleoverviewofkeydocuments(withcaselaw)andactivitiesonmediaregulation

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ofthemainEuropeaninstitutions,aswellascomparativemedialegislationofthecountriesintheregion.

2. Mediaownershipandprivatisation:Withtheopeningofthemediamarketsoneshouldprovideforasystematicandcontrolledtransitiontonewformsof(non-state)mediaownershipbyprivateandforeigncapital.Anestablishmentofa regionalmediaregisterwithcurrentdataon theownershipsharesandotherrelevantinformationunderSloveneauspiceswouldsecurethenecessarytransparency in the field and at the same time attract potential reliableinvestors. Also exchange visits by experts from European institutions andcountriesintheregionsharingexperienceandadvisewithmediainstitutionsstillintransitionlargelycontributetothisaim.

3. Media relations and public communication: As a heritage of former non-democratic and in-stability (war) driven regimes, perceptions of mistrustandevenhostilityprevail intherelationsbetweenmediaandstateofficials,thusvariousactors(PRofficers,diplomats,NGOs)intensivelycommunicatewith domestic and foreign publics. Therefore, they have to be educated astotheestablishedstandardsandpracticesof»fairplay«mediarelationsandresponsibleandefficientpubliccommunication.Sloveniacompetentlycouldprovideforsucheducationandtrainingopportunities.

4. Journalisticpractices:Westernmodelsofprofessional journalisticpracticesareonlygraduallyacquiredbythemediaintheregion,duetothepast,butstill existent state and political dependence as well as to strong nationalistmentality. Beside that, the transition to market regulated media created avacuumallowingforyellowpressdriven,aggressivejournalismandlowqualityjournalisticstories.Therefore,oneshouldprovideforapropereducationandtrainingof the journalists andeditors in the region - a regional journalisticschoolcouldbeestablishedinSlovenia.

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Articlewaspublishedinmonography:PLAVŠAK,Kristina.CommunicatingsecurityandcooperationinSoutheasternEurope:roleofpublicopinion,mediaandcommunication.V:GRIZOLD,Anton(ur.),PREZELJ,Iztok(ur.).SecurityandcooperationinSoutheasternEurope,(Securitystudiescollection).Ljubljana:FacultyofSocialSciences,2003,p.281-295.[COBISS.SI-ID21970013]

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The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljublja-na, constantly analyses events in the regions of the Middle East and the Balkans. Ambassador Dr Jožef Kunič, President of Slovenian Association for International Relations (SDMO) and member of IFIMES has analysed current events after the Par-liamentary elections in Croatia. The most important sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below:

WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER THE ELECTIONS IN CROATIA?

TheelectionswerecarriedoutinCroatiaonSunday,23November2003.HDZ(Croatian Democratic Union), once presided over by Franjo Tudjman, whichadvocatesthenationalvaluesandsovereignty,won66seatsinthe152-seatparlia-ment.Theright-wingHSS(CroatianPeasantParty)won10seats,theradical-rightHSP(CroatianPartyofRight)won8seatsandtheotherpartieswillhold14seats.Thedecisivevictoryoftheright-wingistheresultofvoters’opinionthattheleftoption,ifitcanbecalledso,didnotmeettheexpectationssetattheelectionsfouryearsago.Itisinterestingthatthesoundeconomicresultsdidnotplaythekeyroleinthedecisionmakingatthepollingplaces.Itisalsointerestingthatinitselectioncampaignthepreviousleadingcoalitiondidnotemphasisetheeconomicresultsaswouldhavebeenexpected.Insteaditwasmoreandmoreinclinedtothenationalzeal,whichisthemainelementofright-wingparties,andeventuallybecameevensubordinated,atleastapparently,tothiselement.InspiteofinitialfirmintentionstorespectthedemandsoftheInternationalCriminalTribunalfortheFormerYugoslavia(ICTY)itwasnotabletosendanysuspectstotheHague.Thepressuresoftherightoppositionweretoostrongandinfluencedalargepartofthenationsothenationalfeelingsbecamemoreandmorepowerful.Ontheotherhand,itspredecessor,Tudjman’sHDZ,hadsentarounddozenofsuspectstotheHaguesinceitwasnotforcedtoproveitsnationalorientationbyrejectingtheTribunal’sdemands.Evenintheeconomicfieldthepreviousleadingcoalitionwasnotabletofunctionwithoutthenationallyconsciousfeelings.Whenthepub-licinvitationtotenderwasputoutforthepurchaseofthehotelcomplex»SuncaniHvar«,locatedononeofthemostbeautifulAdriaticislands,theSlovenianofferwasthemostfavourableonefromalltheviewpoints.ButforthesolereasonofitsbeingaSlovenianofferitprovokednationaldiscussionsinthecoalitionandtheSlovenianswerenotallowedtoinvest.Theleft-wingcoalitionslackenedindefend-ingthesocallednationalinterestsalsoregardingtheborderwithSlovenia.Thealreadyconcludedinternationalagreement,whichisinmyopinionfavourabletobothpartiesandevenmorefavourabletoCroatiathantoSlovenia,wasnotrati-fiedinCroatia.AlthoughtheelectionsinCroatiain1999raisedgoodsignsthatCroatiawould

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showagreatdealofreadinessandgoodwilltoresolvetheopenissueswithSlov-eniaandthatco-operationwouldimproveinallthefields,theseprovedtobeonlyvainhopes.CroatiadidnotratifytheagreementonsuccessionoftheformerSFRYwhichwouldresolvethemajorityofproblemsrelatedtotheheritageoftheformerYugoslaviaandisimportantforallthenewlyestablishedstatesintheterritoryofthe formerSFRY.NeitherdidCroatia ratify theagreementon theborderwithSloveniaalthoughitwasinitialledbybothparties.TheCroatianmediahavenotforgottentheissueofholdersofsavingsdepositedwithLjubljanskabankawhichtheSloveniansidebelievestobepartofthesuccessionagreement.Furthermore,theproblemoftheKrškoNuclearPowerPlanthasnotbeenresolvedyet.Sloveniaisnottreatedequallywhenitcomestoforeigninvestmentsonthegroundsofun-resolvedproblemofthedebtofLjubljanskabanka.ThedeclarationofecologicalandfishingzonebyCroatia justpriortotheNovemberelectionswithoutSlov-enia’sconsentandthusprejudicingthestateborderwasthelast»right«stepofthe»left«government.Theslackeninggavewingstotherightistsanddisappointedtheleftistswhichwasprovenbythelatestelectionresults.Moreover,Croatiahasseveralotheropenissueswithitsneighbouringcountries.IthastolaydowntheborderwithSerbiaandMontenegroontheriverDanube.Theriverbed,themiddleofwhichrepresentsinprincipletheborderlinebetweentheformerrepublicsandnowstates,isconstantlychangingandwillnotcorrespondforevertothecadastralmap.TheriverDanubehasformedthirteenbendsandiftheborderlinewasdrawnalongthemiddleofthestreamthenewlyformedlandwouldbelongtotheotherstateandCroatiawouldlooseabout11,5hectares.An-otherborderissueisthePrevlakaPeninsulaattheAdriaticSea.ThisistheareaofstrategicimportancesinceitistheentrancecontrolpointfortheBokaKotorskanavalportofSerbiaandMontenegro.Althoughtheproblemhasbeensoothed,itstillremainsopen.Furthermore,theSerbswhofledCroatiaduringthemilitaryoperations in the Krajina region represent a large and potentially very seriousproblemforCroatia.AllthosewhoarenowinSerbiaandMontenegrorepresentcertaineconomicburdenforthisstateandsoonerorlatertheywilldemandtherighttotheirproperty,compensationetc.Theproblemisfarfrombeingresolvedandisprobablyabouttostartaggravating.CroatiahasalsonumerousunresolvedissueswithBosniaandHerzegovinawhicharetheremnantsoftheTudjmanreign.ThemostimportantaretheagreementontheportofPloce,theKostajnicaborderandtheNeumcrossing.Themostdiffi-cultissueistheborderattheriverUnaintheBosanskaKostajnicaarea.Althoughithasbeenformallyresolved,theinhabitantsopposethosesolutions.Andfinally,another twoopen issuesshouldbepointedout:TherelationofofficialZagrebwithHerzegovinaandtheSerbianrefugeeswhofledfromCroatiatoBosniaandHerzegovina.CroatiaregardedthepositionofHerzegovinaasthepositionofBos-

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niaandHerzegovinawhichis,ofcourse,nottherealsituation.ThereisnodoubtthattheinfluenceofCroatiaonHerzegovinawassignificantandsomeanalystsevendescribeditasinterferenceofCroatiaintheinternalaffairsofBosniaandHerzegovina.Thequestionistowhatextentsuchrelationshipwithaneighbour-ing statewasexceeded.As regards theSerbian refugees, this represents a verycomplexproblemsincethesamequestionswillprobablyberaisedbyBosniaandHerzegovinaandbySerbiaandMontenegro.Unfortunately,itisveryclearthatCroatiadealsrelativelyslowlywithunresolvedissueswhichare theremnantsof the formerSFRYorwhichresultedfromthewarsduringthe1990s.Croatia’sgeostrategicpositionisexceptionalandthatiswhyitwouldbeofimmenseimportanceforthewholeregiontoresolvetheopenissueswiththeneighbouringstatesmuchfaster,withmuchmoreunderstandingfor the problemsor the goals of theneighbouring states andwith muchmoreco-operationinresolvingtheissuesconcerningCroatiaanditsneighboursatthesametime.Asanimportantstate intheregion,Croatiashouldfunctionasthestabiliseroftheregionandnotasthecentreofunresolvedissues.TheEUandNATOpolicyshouldbeorientedtowardsencouragingtheguidelinesleadingassoonaspossibletoastableregioninwhichCroatiaasastabilisercouldrepresentanimportantfactor.Nevertheless,itshouldbekeptinmindthattheunresolvedissueswithSloveniadiffer from the unresolved issues with other neighbouring states since in May2004SloveniaistobecomeafullmemberoftheEUandafullmemberofNATO.Consequently,theissuesconcerningSloveniaautomaticallybecomeinawaytheissuesconcerningtheEUandNATO.Surely,thegoalofCroatiaistojointheEuropeanUnionassoonaspossible.Allthemajorpartiesadheretothisgoalandinpracticethereisanationalconsensusregardingthisissue.Manyorientationsanddecisionswillbedevotedtothisdomi-nantgoal.CroatiawillhavetoproveinmanyfieldsitsproEuropeanorientationwhichisindiametricaloppositiontopersistingingreatsovereignty,adoptingde-cisionsconcerningneighbouringcountrieswithouttheirconsent(theecologicalandfishingzonebeingatypicalexample)andfavouringverydubiousrightsoverpartsoftheterritoryincludingthesea(suchastheseaborderwithSlovenia)in-steadofgoodlong-termrelations,whichhavebeenlongsinceoutmodedpracticeintheEU.ProEuropeanpolicyisdefinitelynotcongruentwithrevokingpublicinvitationstotenderfor investmentswhichapplytoallexcepttothosecomingfromcertainnations(asincaseof»SuncaniHvar«).ProEuropeanattitudeinre-solvingtherefugeeissuewillbeverydifficultbutjustformaladoptionofsolutionswithoutanyrealeffectsisnotwhatwecouldcalltheEuropeanapproach.ProEu-ropeanorientationwillalsohavetobeprovenincaseofthesuspectsoftheHagueTribunal.Theostrichpolicytowardsthisissuewillhavetobemodified.Showing

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respecttotheissueofrealestatewhoseownersarefromotherstatesintheterri-toryoftheformerSFRYisanotherexampleofprovingproEuropeanpolicy,asisthereconstructionofthedemolishedsynagogue.CroatiaisawarethatthepresentenlargementoftheEUtothetennewmemberstatesisaveryhardnuttocrack.Facingthenewconstitutionwithnewrealitiessuchasthe»New«andthe»Old«Europeorthe»Europeofgreaterspeed«,neweconomicflowsetc.,theEUwillrequireatransitionalperiodofcertainduration.DespitetheformalassurancesthatthedoortotheEUisopen,thenewenlarge-ment will be practically impossible before the consolidation of the Europe ofthe twenty-five.Croatia’s turn to join theEUmight thereforebe togetherwiththeotherstatesoftheWestBalkans.SuchwaitingissurelynotintheinterestofCroatia.ThisisalsooneofthereasonsforstrengthenedrelationswiththeUSAwhichareevidentfromthepositionoftherepresentativesofthefutureCroatia’sleadingcrewtowardstheparticipationinIraq.CroatiacertainlyreliesupontheeffectofAmericansupportinitsaccessiontotheEU.Croatia’sgoal isalso to join theNATOallianceas soonaspossible.However,manyopenissuesintheregionanddisrespectforthedemandsoftheHagueTri-bunalwilldefinitelynotacceleratetheaccessiontothisdefenceorganisation.MostanalystsbelievethatCroatiawillbehaveacceptablytowardstheEUandthatitwillagreetotheEuropeanprinciplesanddoeverythingtobeabletotaketheshortestpathtotheEU.ItwillbeveryloyaltothoseEuropeanstateswhichareimportantandoldmembersexpectingthemtoposeveryfewobstaclesinitsac-cessiontotheEU.ThenewcrewwillnothavetoproveitsloyaltytothenationalvaluesandsovereigntyateverystepandwillthereforeadoptmuchmoreeasilythedecisionsexpectedbytheEU.ItwillsendthesuspectstotheHaguewithmuchmoreease,opentherealestatemarket,adopt,at leastformally,theresolutionsrequiredbytheEUregardingtherefugeeissueetc.ItwillmakeeffortnottobeinthepackagewiththeotherstatesoftheWestBalkanswhenjoiningtheEUsinceitwouldrepresentafailureforCroatia.ItthoseeffortsitwilltrytorelyontheEuro-peangovernmentswherethereistheright-wingmajoritywhichcouldhelpCroatiasignificantlyunlessitdisappointsthembysomenon-proEuropeandecisions.CroatiawillbeloyaltowardstheUSAandwillstrengthenitsco-operation.Theright-wingwinningpartyevenofferedparticipationofCroatiansoldiers inIraqwhichis,thoughonlysymbolically,animportantpoliticalstroke.Anotheradvan-tageofthenewcrewintherelationswiththeUSAisthatitsleadingmembershavenocommunistbackground.ThenewCroatia’sPrimeMinisterIvoSanaderstatedthattheprioritiesofthenewgovernmentregardingforeignaffairswillbe joiningtheEU, joiningtheNATOandrelationswiththeneighbouringstates.The latter represent the most interesting issue. According to the European

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expectations Croatia should carry out a constructive policy in relations withtheregionalstatesoftheWestBalkans.Theopenissueswiththeneighbouringstatesshouldberesolvedconstructively,withappropriateunderstanding,layingstress on the goal of resolving the problems (and not gaining direct benefits),whichwouldenableCroatiatobecomethestabiliserintheregion.CanCroatiaachievethis?Thesuccessisfarfromself-evident.Thenationalisticandpopulisticpressureswithstressednationalsymbolswereveryoftenanimportantfactorinadoptingcertaindecisions.TheEUshouldtakeupaclearpositiononthisissue,possiblythatthegoodrelationsofneighbouringstatesaremoreimportantthanminor,sometimesonlysymbolicbenefits.Preferably,theUSAshouldtakeupthepositionthatCroatiashouldbecomethestabiliserintheregion,whichisonlypos-siblewithproperlyregulatedrelationswiththeneighbouringstates.TheessentialquestionsforSloveniaare:WhatpolicycanbeexpectedfromthenewCroatiangovernmentandtheparliamenttowardsSlovenia?Whatrelationscanbeexpectedbetween the two statesandhowcanSlovenia influence thoserelations?AnotherquestionposedbytheanalystsisinwhatwayandinrelationtowhomthenewgovernmentwillmeetthemoredecisiveexpectationsofCroatianvoters,especiallyasregardsthepreservationofsovereigntyandnationalvalues.ManyanalystsbelievethatSloveniawillbethemainsafetyvalveforlevellingthenationalisticpressures.IntheiropinionitwillbenecessarytoshowCroatianvot-ersinsomepoliticalfieldsthattheirexpectationsregardingthenationalvalueswillbeatleastpartlyrealised.SinceCroatiawilldefinitelynotrealisethosepa-trioticexpectationsinrelationswiththeEU,theHagueTribunal,theotherstatesoftheWestBalkansnorwiththeUSA,itwillcompensatebyplacingevenmorestressontherelationswithSlovenia.SomeanalystsbelievethattherelationswithSloveniawillbesomewhatradicalisedwhileothersevenpredictextremelyunfa-vourablenationalattitudeofofficialZagrebtowardsSlovenia.TheydonotseeanypossibilityforCroatiatoconsenttothefinallyvalidagreementonthestateborderwithoutinternationalarbitration.Intheiropinion,theissueofholdersofsavingsdepositedwithLjubljanskabankawillbeintensified,therewillbefishingincidents,SloveniancompanieswillnotfinditeasytoinvestinCroatiaanditwillbedifficulttoconsultCroatiaonanumberofquestions.However,inmyopinionthisisnottheonlypossibility.On1May2004,SloveniawillbecomeafullmemberoftheEUalthoughitisdefactoalreadyinthisassocia-tionofstates.AtthatpointitwillbecomealsoafullmemberofNATOwhichwillputadditionalweighttothisstate.ThereisarealisticpossibilitythatalthoughtheopinionpollsdidnotshowverystrongfriendshipofCroatianstowardsSlovenia,theCroatianpoliticswillregardSloveniainfactaspartoftheEUandthatCroatiawillassumethesamepositiontowardsSloveniaastowardstheothermembersof

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theEUandBrussels.ThelatterpossibilityissurelymorefavourableforSloveniaandwillbeadvocatedby therationalandcalmpartofCroatianpolitics.Manypeople inCroatiaareawarethatSloveniawillalwaysbetheirneighbourandthatinthelongrunCroatiacannotbenefitfromtheBalkanprinciple,accordingtowhichthedirectbenefitgainedtothedetrimentoftheneighbourismoreimportantthangoodrelationswiththeneighbour.However,wearefarfrombeingcertainthatCroatiawilldecidetoestablishEuro-peanrelationswithitsnorth-westneighbour.Oldstateswithtraditionaldiplomacyandnationalinterestsinthefieldofforeignrelationsalready»inherentinthelittlebrain«areusuallyimmunefromthedailypoliticaleventsandrelativelyfrequentchangesof the leadingcrews.Ontheotherhand, this isnot thecase inyoungEuropeanstateswhereachangeinthepoliticaloptionhasastronginfluenceonboththedomesticandforeignpolicyanditwouldnotberealistictoexpectforeignrelationsnottodependontheelectionresults.InordertoachievetheabovementionedsecondpossibilityinrelationsofCroatiatoSlovenia,thelatterwillalsohavetosparenoefforts.TherecommendationfromthefirsttalkswiththePresidentoftheRepublicofSlovenia,DrJanezDrnovsek,inNovember2003was:»ThefutureSlovenianforeignpolicyshouldbecreativeandnotonlyresponsive.«Onlyadialoguebetweenthetwostatescanleadtothedesiredgoal.Thedialogueshouldbecarriedoutinafriendlyatmospherewheretheparticipantsestablishmutualtrustandrespect.Politicswasandwillalwaysbecreatedbypeoplewiththeirlittlebutimportanthumanfeatures.AfterthenewgovernmentisestablishedinCroatia,bothcountriesshouldstartintensivetalks.Resortingtointernationalarbitrage,althoughnotopposed inprinciplebyanyparty,doesnotbring long-termbenefits.Itisverylikelythatoneorbothpartieswouldbeveryunsatisfiedwiththedecisionofthearbitrageandthatwouldnotrepresentasoundbasisforgoodlong-termrelationsbetweentheneighbouringstatesandforstrengtheningregionalco-operation.Thedialogue shouldbe intensive in shouldbecarriedoutat all levelswithallCroatianpoliticaloptions.However,thedialogue,i.e.thetalkscarriedoutbytwoparties,shouldnotexcludeorreplacetheactiveroleininternationalorganisationsandinthemultilateralfield.BothpartiesshouldbeabletounderstandtheproblemsoftheotherpartyandSloveniashouldpersistontheissuesofrelevanceforthiscountry,foritseemsthatCroatiahasbeenmorepersistentthanSloveniatillnow.AprioruniformviewshouldbeassumedbySloveniaonallthearguments,notonlybythepoliticiansanddiplomatsbutalso,andasfaraspossible,bytheexperts.Theinterpretationandapplicationofgenerallyvalidprinciplesshouldbeconsist-

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entandorientedtothebenefitofSlovenia.Namely,ifexpertopinionsdeliveredinpublicdiffertheydonotenablecrediblerepresentationofthepositions.Sloveniashouldstrengthenpublicdiplomacy,i.e.thediplomaticactivityencom-passingwidercirclesofpeopleinCroatia,especiallytheinterestedgroups.Thisactivityshouldbeintensifiedinordertochangethepublicopinionandachievefavourableattitudeofthegeneralpublic.The internationalcommunity,especially theEUand theUSA,shoulddemandCroatiatotakeactivestepstorealisethedemandsoftheHagueTribunalandtohelptherefugeesreturntotheirhomesdefactoandnotonlydeiure.ThiswillonlybepossibleifCroatiareducesthepopulisticrhetoriconthenationalorsocalledpatrioticbasis.Consequently,thepopulisticpressuresontheforeignpolicyactivitiesofthenewgovernmentwillalsobereducedwhichwillenableatemper-ate,rationalandtolerantdialogueandsolutionstothesatisfactionofbothpartieswhichisthebasisforstableandgoodlong-termrelationsintheregion.NowisthetimefortheinternationalcommunityandSloveniatoprepareforandstartassoonaspossibleadialoguewiththenewgovernmentandnewleadingcrewinCroatia.Thefirststepsareveryimportant.Agoodstartishalfthebattle.

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Assist. Kristina Plavšak-Krajnc, MIAFaculty of Social Sciences University of Ljubljana andMember of International Institute IFIMES

3rd CEI International Conference»Public Diplomacy and Media« - Dubrovnik, Croatia

SLOVENIA - BRANDING A SMALL NEW EU NATIONABSTRACT

Theveryabilitytocompetentlyandconvincinglycommunicateininternationalanddiplomaticrelationscanimportantlycompensatetheshortcomingsinphysi-calcapabilitiesandpotentialsofsmallstates,likeSlovenia.ItseemsthatSloveneforeignpolicymakersareawareofthefactingeneralprinciple,whilementioningthesoftpowersofSlovenecultural,civilisationandeconomicachievementsthatexceeditsactualsize.Inparticularonepointstotheimportanceofcommunica-tionwithintheframeworkoftheEuropeanUnion,itscommonpoliciesandthenewEuropeandiplomacy.Slovenia at theEUdoorsteps is surelynot anationwithoutanimageandknownidentity,howeverithastofigureouthowtobuildon its communicative powers and how to improve its brand as a trust-worthy,constructive,principledandunproblematicpartnerMemberState.ThepaperwillexploretheroleofSlovenepublicdiplomacyinnationalimagebuildingwithintheEuropeanUnion.

INTRODUCTION

»PlacedelaConcorde,Paris,July1,2015,0900Eurotime.Mr.andMrs.Bridgeapproach themajestic iron fenceprotecting theAmericanembassyand its en-tranceparkinglot.Itseemsthatafestivalisgoingon.Red,white,andbluebuntingiseverywhere,LEDandlasersignsofatastefulandstylishvarietyexhortreadersto“VisittheU.S.”,“HuntbuffaloeswithRedIndians”,“DescendintoGrandCan-yononmules”,“SmellthecoolbreezesofBanff”,“TryarealAmericanTamale!”«(Schmitz,2001)DoesthisimaginarystorydepicthowtheU.S.oranyembassyofthe21stcenturywilllooklike?Anddoesitactuallyshowthedirectioninwhichthecontemporarydiplomacyandits futurerolewilldevelop -merelytomarketastate/anationwhilethetechnologywilltakeovertheordinarydiplomaticfunctionsandconsu-larservices?Inthiscontext,canonetalkabout»theriseofthebrandstatewithgeographicalandpoliticalsettingsthatseemtrivialcomparedtotheiremotional

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resonanceamonganincreasinglyglobalaudienceofconsumers«(Ham,2001)?At thecoreof thispuzzle lies aparadigmshift in thediplomatic environmentinfluencedbytheadventofrevolutionaryinformationandcommunicationstech-nologies.Thepaperwillfirstintroducetherenewedunderstandingofcontempo-raryworldpoliticsandfurtherdiscusshow(public)diplomacyhasadaptedtotheprevailingtrendsofglobalcommunicationandmediainterdependence.ThiswillallowustogiveaconcreteandrelevantestimationsofhowasmallstatelikeSlov-eniacanandshouldcommunicatewithintheinternationalrelations,inparticularwithintheEuropeanUnion.

BRAVE NEW (MEDIA) WORLD

Today’sworldischaracterisedbyfragmegration,»aconceptthatjuxtaposestheprocessesoffragmentationandintegrationoccurringwithinandamongorganiza-tions,communities,countries,andtransnationalsystemssuchthatitisvirtuallyimpossiblenottotreatthemasinteractiveandcausallylinked«(Rosenau,1999:3).Contemporary international relations anddiplomacy takeplacewithin glo-balnetworksofinterdependentinfo-,media-,cyber-andidea-spaceswhichhavespilledover thebordersofstates’ /nations’ territorieswherebychallengingthetraditionalconceptsofsovereigntyandpower.»The(metaphorforthe)interna-tionalsystemwhichisnowdeveloping...isofanegg-boxcontainingtheshellsofsovereignty,butalongsideitaglobalcommunityomeletiscooking.«(Booth,1991andRosenau,1999:6)Moreaccuratethananoldmetaphoraboutrealpolitikwithstates-billiardballsmovingaroundonapooltable,wouldbeaso-calledpost-New-tonianmetaphoroftheworldpolitics.»Thenewmetaphorshouldnotonlyaddballsfornonstateactors,butalsoshowthatwhathappensonthetabledependsonthedynamicsofthetablefabricaswellastheinteractionamongtheballs.And,metaphoricallyspeaking, that fabric ischanging inways thatmake it-the fabricitself-anewandimportantfactor.«(RonfeldtandArquilla,1999:8)Theveryfineweavingofcontemporaryworldpoliticsiscommunication,orevenmoresoimagination,whichistoday»astaginggroundforaction,andnotonlyforescape.«(Appadurai1996andRosenau,1999:7)Newmodesofproductionandnetworksofinformationhaveerasedoldandcreatednewdemarcationsofpowerandidentity,realityandvirtuality.Withintheconverged»Military-Industrial-Me-dia-Entertainment«network, it isprevailingly importantwhat andhow is com-municated, represented,virtualisedand imagined,»howreality isseen, framed,readandgeneratedintheactualizationoftheevent«(DerDerian,2000:786-787).Therefore,contemporaryinternationalrelationsarealsomoreandmoreledbysoftpower, i.e. »theability toachievedesiredoutcomes in internationalaffairsthroughattractionratherthancoercion.Itworksbyconvincingotherstofollow,

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orgettingthemtoagreeto,normsandinstitutionsthatproducethedesiredbehav-ior.Softpowercanrestontheappealofone’sideasortheabilitytosettheagendainwaysthatshapethepreferencesofothers.«(NyeandOwens,1996:9)Insuchacommonglobalisedcontext,anystatecantakeonthepotentialofconvincing,ap-pealingcommunicationandcompensateforitslimitedsovereignty:»Whatstatesloseincontrol,theycouldregainininfluence.«(BrownandStudemeister,2001:3)Oneoftheimportantthreadsintheworldpolitics’fabricaremedia,notmerelyreactingtotheinternationalpoliticaleventsanddevelopments,butratherincreas-inglybeingapartofthecommunicationprocessbetweengovernmentsandpub-licsaboutinternationalpolitics.»Themassmediaofcommunicationhavebrokeninto traditionally exclusive sphere of diplomacy and have themselves becomean instrument of international conciliation and mediation as also of conflict.«(Kunczik, 2003: 409) Furthermore, with expansion of global communicationsinternationalpolitics ismoreor lessmedia representedandmedialised, takingplaceinreal-time,withaso-calledCNNeffect»whereininternationalcrisissitu-ationglobaltelevisionhasbecomethedominatingactorintheconductofforeignpolicy, replacing elected and appointed policy makers« (Gilboa, 2002: 732).Worldleadersandotheractorsininternationalrelationshaveadaptedtosucha»mediarealit«,oftenbypassingestablisheddiplomaticchannelsandusingthenewtechnologiesofglobalcommunicationtotransmitnonsecretmessagesdirectlytoleadersofstateandnonstateactorsaswellastotheirrespectivepublics(Gilboa,2002:738).Inaso-called»wag-the-dog«foreignpolicyformulationandimplemen-tationoneattemptstoimprovenotonlythecontent,butevenmoresotheimageoftheirpolicies.»Whattoooftencountsishowwellthepolicywillplay,howthepictureswilllook,whethertherightsignalsarebeingsent,andwhetherthepublicwillbeimpressedbytheswiftnessofthegovernment’sresponse-notwhetherthepolicypromotesAmerica’slong-terminterests.«(Gergen,1991:48-49)However,pastexperienceoftenprovethatatpointsofpolicyuncertainty, intheabsenceofclearpolicylineorpersuasivegovernmentstrategymediacanhavedisastrousimpacts(Robinson,2001:532;Hoge,1994:138).

CONTEMPORARY COMMUNICATIVE DIPLOMACY?

Alsocontemporarydiplomacyhasadapted tosuchcircumstanceswhere»valu-able information, observation, and suggestions from overseas diplomatic andintelligencesourcesmayno longerarrive in timetohave thedesired influenceondecisions,and,wheninformationdoesarriveintime,itcanhardlycompetewithdramatictelevisedimagesandongoingreportageofcrisesandforeignpolicyissues.«(Gilboa,2002:737)Moderndiplomatsareinevitablylockedinaspecificrelationofinter-dependencywiththemedia:ononesidetheyrelyonmediatrans-

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mitted information,whereason theother, theyusemedia as efficient commu-nicationmeanssupplementingtheclassicaldiplomaticchannels.Theyhavenotmerelyadaptedtoworkwiththemediahand-in-hand,buthavealsolearnthowtoworkwiththemedia,steppingtowardamoreactiveinvolvementandmanagementofmediaandcommunicationtoone’scountrypurposesandadvantagesguidedbynational interests.Therefore,diplomaticprofessionnowadays resembles theprofessionofapublicaffairspractitioner,asitimplementsreasoning,toolsandtechniquesofmediaandpublic relations (Plavšak,2002:116-117). It isarguedthatcontemporarydiplomacytakesonformsofvariousmediaformatsanditisdescribedintermsof»mediadiplomacy«,»tele(di)plomacy«,»foto(di)plomacy«,»soundbite-«,»instant-«and»real-timediplomacy«(Ammon,2001;Gilboa,2001).Mostcriticalauthorsclaimthatparticularly intheageofmediawars»Westerndiplomacyhasbecomesophisticatedinpackagingpublic informationinavisu-allyastutefashion,andtelevisionnetworks,whichoftenoperateinasymbioticrelationship with authorities, tend to conform the geo-political agendas set bypowerfulgovernments«(Thussu,2000:5).Allinall,contemporarydiplomacyassuchactuallyispublicdiplomacy,definedas»asthewayinwhichbothgovernmentandprivateindividualsandgroupsinflu-encedirectlyorindirectlythosepublicattitudesandopinionswhichbeardirectlyonanothergovernment’sforeignpolicydecision.«(SignitzerandCoombs,1992:138)However,rolesarenotcompletely interchangeablebetweencontemporarydiplomacy and media, each of the professions, diplomatic and journalistic re-mainsdeliveringitsbasicfunctions,wheretheyoftenintersectwithinthefieldofcommunicationasdescribed.Assomescholarsstress,superficialdailynewsandmediaaccountscannotcompensateforin-depthdiplomaticreports,richerinin-formation,sources,analysisandrecommendations(Vukadinović,1994:248-249).Also,publicdiplomacy isnotmerely a techniqueof statepromotion, its basiccontentandqualityisformulatedandimplementedforeignpolicy,whichcannotbemerelycompensatedbymeansofpublicrelations,advertisingandbranding.Themostimportantrolesarestillplayedbycredibleandcompetentforeignaf-fairsspeakerswhoareinvolvedwiththepolicydecision-makingprocess(Plavšak,2002:114).(Public)diplomacyasasystemandapractice,todaypersistsinitsmaininterna-tionalcommunicationrole, though,enduringa/nr/evolutionalshift.Asshown,withinthenewparadigmofworldpolitics,inparticularbymeansoftheglobalreach of modern technologies and media images, international relations nowflowabove,below,around, throughand inspiteofdiplomacyand themoderndiplomatic system no longer is the master institution of international society.However,diplomacystillremainsitscentralpractice:»Thelessobviousornaturaltheidentitiesoftheagentsappearandthethinnerthesocialcontextinwhichthey

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operate,themorediplomacyisneeded.«(Sharp,1999:50)Diplomatsnowadayshave to takeonrolesofagendasetters, issueraisers,coalitionbuilders, regimeor order builders, and catalysts of collective action. Contemporary diplomacycommunicates with multiplicity of actors in international relations, includingmedia,adaptingtonewfunctionalmodes,as»networkdiplomacy«(Livingston,2002);itcatalyses,translatesandmoderatesbetweenvariousactorsandissuesas»catalystisticdiplomacy«(Hocking,2002);andstrivestoaddvalueinitsoutputs,toanalyse,interpret,offersynthesis,multifoldscenariosandsolutions,alsoinitsmediaandpublicappearances(Cooper,2002).Thus,understandingofdiplomacyintoday’sworldshouldgomoreinthedirectionofapublicpartnershipinforeignpolicy, where state becomes merely a moderator and diplomacy represents anintermediaryandalternativechannelbetweenregulationandself-regulation. Insuchamodel,contemporarydiplomatcanbeactuallyanyonewhoidentifieswithvaluesofaparticularstatewithintheinternationalcommunityandwithhumanemodelsofsolvingopenquestionsofglobalisation.Atthispointonecanobserve,oratleastpredictfurtherr/evolution,towardacon-temporary»communicative«diplomacywherecommunicativepower,i.e.theabil-ityofcompetentandconvincingcommunicationininternationalanddiplomaticrelations,hasbecomeessentialpreconditionandassetforanyactorenteringtheworldstage.Thiscanbeonlyrealisedthroughsocialre-construction,interactionandcommunicativeaction-throughso-calleddiplomaticcommunicativeinterac-tionwhichischaracterisedbybehaviourorientedtowardsmutualunderstanding,whereperceptionsofreality, interests,preferences,anddesirablebehaviouraresubjected to a collective process of interpretation guided by argumentative ra-tionalityandtheclaimofvalidity(Lose,2001:188-190;Risse,2000).Crucialforunderstandingsuchacommunicativeapproachtopowerisaspecificconceptofpracticesthatincludesnotonlyinteractiveattempts,butalsopeople’semotionalinvolvementtopoliticalrites,routines,anddiscourses(Guzzini,1993:465).With-insuchanunderstanding,traditionalconceptsandperceptionsofsmallstatesandtheirpotentials inworldpoliticscanbecompletely repositionedandreframed.Thissimplymeansthatanyactorininternationalanddiplomaticrelationsisasbigandasinfluentialasitiscommunicated,presented,perceivedandagreedtobebytheothers.Orputintermsofopenmarketcompetition:»Brandstatesstill‘makewar’(andarethemselves‘made’-i.e.shapedandconstructed-by‘war’),but here in a non-violent contest for market-share and visibility.« (Ham, 2002:265).Here,Sloveniaasasmall,new,EUmemberservesasacasestudyofwhatpublicdiplomacyinitscommunicative(branding)potentialcanorcannotdo.

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SLOVENIA: BRAND OF A SUCCESS STORY

SloveniadeclaringitsindependencefromFederalRepublicofYugoslaviain1991,startedoffas»anationwithoutanimageandknownidentity«(Serajnik,1998:687)orvaguelyasacountry»onthesunnysideoftheAlps«.Thus, todayit iswidelyrecognisedasastable,prospectivecountryintheCentralEurope,provedtobeabletotakeonamodelroleof»anexporterofstability«totheregion,amediatorand»anhonestbroker«ininternationalcommunity.Thepicturesandthe words of the former US President Clinton during his visit to Slovenia on21June1999bearhistoricimportanceofcommunicatingSlovenia’sroleintheworld: »WemustbuildaEuropewithno frontlinestates -aEuropeundivided,democratic,andatpeaceforthefirsttimeinhistory.AndSloveniacanleadtheway.«The internationalmedia reporton the first summitmeetingbetweenUSandRussianPresidents,BushandPutin,takingplaceatthecastleBrdoneartheSlovenecapitolLjubljanainJune2001,onlyaddedtovisibilityandprominenceofsuchanimage.Whileridingthewaveoffavourableinternationaldevelopmentsandcoincidenc-es,Slovenerepresentativesalsohavemadeconsistent,intensiveeffortstomakeSlovenia’s competent voiceheardwithin the international community. Slovenediplomacymadeanexcellentuseofitssmallnessandunproblematicpositioninparticularasanon-permanentmembertheUNSecurityCouncilinyears1998-1999,atsomecrucialmomentseveninapresidingrole,withalltheinternationalmediaattention(Jazbec,2001).Ithasbeenfurtherbuildingonits»brand«ofare-gionalleaderalsowithinothermultilateralorganisations(presidingoverCEFTAin2003, theCentralEuropean Initiative-CEI in2004; theOSCE in2005).AtthemomentSlovenedecisionmakersarealsoawareoftheimportanceofcom-municationwithintheframeworkof theEuropeanUnion, itscommonpoliciesandthenewEuropeandiplomacy.Itisrepeatedlystressedthat,»asasmallstatewemustbuildourrecognitionongroundssuchasimageofatrust-worthypart-ner,beingconstructive,principledandefficient.Wecanonlysucceedbymeansofexpertiseandprofessionalapproach,motivatedandhighlyeducatedpeople.«(Rupel,2003a)After having accomplished a multifold, systemic shift like other East-CentralEuropeandiplomacies-fromprevioussocialist/federalsystemstoindependent,internationally recognised and also multilaterally active diplomacies, Slovenediplomacy is facing yet another challenge with the accession to the EuropeanUnion.SloveniahasindeedachievedacrucialbreakthroughwiththeEUmember-ship,however,therewithithasoutsourceditsmainforeignpolicyaims,leadingitsidentity(alsoitsimageandbrand)formationforthepastdecade.Thisprocesshasbeenspecificandevencontroversaryinthedefinitionandrelationtothesignifi-

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cantother-towardEurope/theEuropeanUnionandtheBalkans/Yugoslavia.Thus,onepresentedEuropeanidentityaslyingattheheartofSlovenenationalhistoryandSlovenesalwaysconsideringthemselvesasaEuropeannation(withaleitmotiv»Slovenia.HomeinEurope«).Ononehand,theEuropeanidentitybe-camethedesirabledevelopmentmodelandmainaimofSlovenesovereignty,ontheother,theformerYugoslavfederationrepresentedthecontra-identity,contrib-utingtoalargeextenttothestrengtheningofthenewSloveneidentity.However,alsotheconstructionofEuropeanidentitybecomesanationallyandpersonallyinternalisedprocessandatthisstageofself-consciousnessorevenself-confidenceSlovenestakeanactivepositiontowardtheimportantother,eithertheimperfectEuropeanUnionortheunstableBalkans(Plavšak,2001;alsoinHansen,1996).These socio-psychological developments reflect in several current, parallel at-temptstoquestion,rethink,reformulateandeventore-brandtheverycoreoftheSloveneidentity.Insearchforamodern,recognisableandinventiveSloveneimageorevenapositive,likablestereotypetobeefficientlyandconvincinglycommuni-cateexternally,newSlovenestatesymbols(flag,heraldry)werechosenthroughaconcourseinOctober2003.Atthesametimeamajorinitiativeforanewcreativeandcommunicationaction,brandingSloveniaabroad,inparticularasinEurope,hasbeenlaunchedbytheSloveneTourismBoard(withoneoftheproposednewslogan:»«Slovenia-EdenofEurope«).Inthesamemonth,PresidentoftheRepub-licJanezDrnovšekbroughttogetheraround50relevantspeakers,representativesandexpertsfromstateinstitutions,academia,privatesector,NGOsandmediatodiscusson»ActiveandrecognisableSloveniaintheworld«andtobuildaplatform(i.e.network)forfurtherdebateonSlovenia’sfuture.Here, one of the conclusions was that public diplomacy should be includedamongtheprioritiesof thefutureSloveneforeignpolicy,withnofurtherexpli-cations or recommendations at this point. The formulation follows the basicdefinitionofpublicdiplomacy,not yet taking intoaccountall implications forcontemporarydiplomacy: »It isnecessary to strategicallyplanandcarryout aforeignpolicyofrelationswithforeignpublicsinordertoimprovetheimageandrecognisibilityofSlovenia,ofSlovenecompanies,ofourvaluesandpotentialsaswellasofindividualstateandcivilsocietyinitiativesintheinternationalenviron-ment.«(Drnovsek,2003)Still,itseemsthatSloveneforeignministerintuitivelyisawareofSlovenia’spotentialincontemporaryworldpolitics,mentioningthesoftpowersofSlovenecultural,civilisationandeconomicachievementsthatexceeditsactualsize(Rupel,2001).Healsopointedtotheimportanceofcultureandinternationalculturalcooperation,thus,warnedoftheunsolved,crucialquestionofnationallanguagepromotionwithintheEU.Hispsychoanalysisofthecountrywasindeedsignificant:»InlastdecadeSloveniahasachievedalot;wehavemanyachievements,however,theyhavebeenmoreorlessintroverted,self-protective.

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Sloveniahasfoughtforourselves,forourownbenefits;firstfortheexistence,thenforarespectablepositionwithininternationalrelations.«(Rupel,2003b)

TOWARD A NEW CREATIVE EUROPEAN IDENTITY?

Inthisrespect,howcanthenSloveniabecomeevenmore»powerful«asanewEUMemberState? I suggest to take intoaccount someparameterswithin theoutreachofpublicdiplomacy,whichcanpotentially affect the future, renewedSlovenebrandinEuropeandelsewhereabroad.1. Withtheincreasingdynamicsofprocessesintheinternationalenvironment,

it is most essential to understand the ongoing changes in time, to be ableto adequately react and to adapt to them. Therefore, holistic projectionsof middle- and long-term developments in the international relations, inparticularwithintheEuropeanUnion,aretoppriorityforaforeignministry.

Slovene diplomacy should base its activities primarily on value-addedanalyticalwork,wherebesideexpertiseandspecialisationalsoaskilleduseofinformationaccessandmaterialprovidedbynewtechnologiesandmedia,is essential to remain in track. This backup will equip Slovene diplomatswith professional confidence to strive toward a non-stop, active, inventiveand cooperative presence in the multilateral fora (the UN; the EU; theOSCE).Here,Slovenediplomacyshouldcommunicativelyactwithacreativeambiguity,asexpressedbySloveneformerlong-timeambassadortotheUnitedNations and nowadays the UN Assistant Secretary General for PoliticalAffairs,dr.DaniloTürk(2003).

Also at the level of the European Union, in particular when knowing thedevelopments within CFSP framework, Slovenia as a new Member statescan take advantage of the potential shortcuts in communication. A studyon concrete »emanations« of EU’s Common Foreign and Security PolicywithintheUN(Plavšak,1996)showedthatlargecreditforasuccessfulpolicyimplementationactuallygoestoeverydaycommunication,regularcontacts,informal consultations, and coordination at lower levels and »in the field«,among the diplomats of the EU Member States at the embassies abroadwherebydiverseactorswithintheEUconstantlyinteract,paralleltoregularinstitutionalchannels.

2. Sloveniashouldfullygrasponpotentialsofcontemporarypublicdiplomacy,mechanisms and techniques of ‘imagination’, i.e. media representation,image-making,branding.Slovenediplomacyshouldworktowardbeingmoretransparent, inclusive and communicative - it should build networks on alllevelstoincludeallrelevantactorsandprovideforasynergyofdiverseeffortsinthefieldofpublicdiplomacyandinternationalpublicrelations.

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Specialattentionshouldbedevotedtomediarelatedwork:workofSlovenediplomats to a great extent relies on international media reporting, andthe international media in turn, can importantly strengthened Sloveneforeignpolicypositions ifdramaturgicallywell in timeandplace(as to thenewsworthinesscriteria).HereoneobservesthatSloveneforeignpolicyactorstendtooftenusethedomesticmediaasacommunicationchannelandalso,a testing variable, while Slovene media seem to be increasingly interestedto perform as official representatives (and defenders) of Slovene nationalinterests.Still,communicationandmessagesbySlovenediplomatsandforeignpolicyactorsshouldbebasedonthoroughanalysisandwellthoughtforeignpolicyformulations,ononeside,andanyforeignpolicydecisionshouldtakeintoaccountalsopublicopinionandcommunicationaspects.

For such changes within the diplomatic practices, some organisational,structural, creative support is most needed. The following adaptations andre-organisationswithinandamongrelevantinstitutionsshouldbeapriority:- establishmentofpublicdiplomacyunitattheSloveneforeignministryor

attheOfficeofthePrimeMinisterwithahigh-rankingofficialresponsibleforoverallplanningandcoordinationofpublicdiplomacyactivities;

- expansion,re-organisationandcoordinationofpublicdiplomacyactivitiesin other government institutions (office of media and information,spokesperson’s office, ministries and offices involved with promotionabroad-ofculture,ofeconomy,oftourismetc.);

- activeinvolvementofmediaandpublicrelationsprofessionals,brandingexperts with the public diplomacy activities, also by employment androtation in their job positions at the Foreign Ministry and the Sloveneembassiesabroad;

- cooperationandcoordinationwithrelevantoutsideinstitutions,involvedwithpublicdiplomacyactivities(ChamberofCommerce,SloveneTourismBoard, public relations and marketing agencies; NGOs, cultural andacademicinstitutions,media);

- expansionofcommonresearchandpolicyorientedprojects in the fieldofpublicdiplomacy,potentially resulting in the establishmentof anewindependent(non-governmental,non-profit)organisation(think-tank)forsuchpurposes.

However, proper education and training of modern diplomats for thecommunicationandmediaageremainsatthecoreofanypublicdiplomacyeffortsinSlovenia.Coursesonpublicdiplomacywithworkshopsonmediaandpublicrelationsshouldbeintroducednotmerelyforstudentsofinternationalrelations, but primarily for serving diplomats at the foreign ministries andembassiesabroad,aswellasforallotherinterestedactorsinvolvedwithpublic

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diplomacy. This could be followed up with relevant, tailor-made courseslike communication and lobbying within the European Union, marketingcommunicationandbrandingforstates,creative,visualworkshopsetc.Thesecould expanded to more comprehensive training programmes in differentaspects of public diplomacy at diplomatic academies, institutes and other(independent)organisations,asalreadyfunctioninginWesternEurope.

3. Last but not least, only a clear and comprehensive definition of Slovenenationalinterests,aimsandvaluesprovidesstablegroundsforsystematicandefficient communication, represented and implemented by the state actorsandthecitizensthemselves.Theidealofimagemakingandbrandingistoberealisedathighlevelsofidentificationandofactiveinvolvement.

Here,oneshouldfirstposethebasicquestionsofhowdoweseeourselveswithin theEuropeanUnion,what imagewe(want to)projectabroad,whatis contemporary Slovene identity as to the European identity. Answeringto these isproblematic inparticularwhen looking intosomesurvey resultsshowingexplicitmono-cultural,non-tolerant,xenophobicpatternsinSlovenia,whichare incompatiblewithpluralityofethnicand languagecommunities,lifestylesandculturalpracticeswithinEurope.Sofar,Sloveneshavebasedtheir perceptions of the »other« mostly on their monoculture experiences,fears and frustrations of a small, young nation, past history and migrationfromex-Yugoslavia.Still,thefuturelieswiththeyoungpopulation,whichischaracterisedbynewunderstandingoffreedom,by individual lifestyles,byflexibilityandopennesstomulticulturalflowsanddialogueetc.(Ule,2003).IftheyaretobethefuturediplomatsofSlovenia,theircreativityasaparticularlifestyle most certainly represents a distinct trait of contemporary Sloveneidentityandcanworkefficiently,ifnotcontagiouslywithinthenewEuropeanhome.

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Prof. Dr. Mirko PejanovićFormer member of the Presidency of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992-1996)Full Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences, University of SarajevoPresident of the Serb Civic Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina – the Civic Movement for EqualityMember of the Council of the IFIMES International Institute

THE DAYTON PEACE AGREEMENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF POLITICAL PLURALISM IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA THE STRUCTURE OF THE STATE OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA BASED ON THE DAYTON PEACE AGREEMENT

InNovember1995,apeaceagreementwasreachedintheAmericantownofDay-tonwhichstoppedthefour-yearwarinBosniaandHerzegovina.ThewarstartedinApril1992whenSarajevowasundersiegeandshelledbyKaradžić’sSerbianforcesaidedbytheYugoslavnationalarmyafterthecitizen’sreferendumwascar-riedoutontheindependenceofBosniaandHerzegovinaandafterthestatewasinternationallyrecognised.Many perceived the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina as an interethnic conflictbetweenthethreeautochtonnationsofBosniaandHerzegovina:Bosniaks,SerbsandCroats.However,thewarincorporatedtheelementsofclassicalaggressionbytheBelgrade(Milošević)regimewhichwantedtopreventBosniaandHerze-govinafromachievingnational independencesothatitwouldremainapartofrumpYugoslavia, i.e.Milošević’s»GreatSerbia«(that iswhyMiloševićdidnotrecognisetheAVNOJrepublicbordersintheYugoslavsocialistfederation).TorealisethisgoaltheSerbianforcesoccupied70%oftheterritoryofBosniaandHerzegovinabymid-1993andcarriedoutethniccleansingofnon-Serbinhabit-antsformEasternBosnia,Posavina,BosanskaKrajinaandEasternHerzegovina.2.000.000inhabitantswereremovedfromtheirhomesorplacesoflivingofalltogether4.400.000inhabitantsaccordingtothe1991pre-warcensus.ThiscourseofwarshowedacleartendencytoexterminatetheBosniaknationasthemostnu-merousofthethreenationsofBosniaandHerzegovina.SuchannouncementwasmadeinOctober1991intheParliamentofBosniaandHerzegovinabyKaradžićwhowasthenpresidentoftheSerbianDemocraticParty.Thewarcouldonlybestoppedwiththeinterferenceoftheinternationalcommunity.Theannouncementofapeacefulsolutionwasmadein1995undertheAmericanguidanceleadby

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RichardHolbrookewhotooktheinitiativeonbehalfoftheUSAtofindapeacefulpoliticalsolution.AfterNATOstrikesonKaradžić’sforcesinSummer1995theconditionswereestablishedforthepeacenegotiationsinDayton.WhatdidtheDaytonPeaceAgreementactuallyenable?TheDaytonPeaceAgree-mentismarkedasthegeneralframeworkpeaceagreementbetweentheconflict-ingparties.TheAgreementcontainsfourmainsegments:· thewarsegment· theConstitutionofBosniaandHerzegovina(asAnnexIV)· thesegmentonthereturnofrefugees(AnnexVII)· thesegmentontheestablishmentofdemocracyanddemocraticinstitutionsin

thesocietyofBosniaandHerzegovina.

There are several important implications which the Dayton Peace Agreementenabled:· Thefour-yearwarwasended· The integrity and international legal status of the state of Bosnia and

Herzegovinaarepreserved· TheConstitutionwasadoptedas theconstituentpartof theDaytonPeace

AgreementwhichservesasthebasisfortheinternalorganisationofBosniaandHerzegovinaasthestatewithtwoentitiesandwithcentralinstitutions

· The protection of human rights was established according to internationalstandards

· Internationalguaranteeswereprovidedforthereturnofrefugees· TheimplementationoftheDaytonPeaceAgreementisbasedontheprinciple

ofhe involvementofthe internationalcommunityforces,bothmilitaryandcivilones.ThemilitaryforcesaretheNATOforcesandthecivil forcesarerepresented by the High Representative of the International Communitywho is at the same time the supreme authority for the interpretation andimplementationoftheDaytonPeaceAgreement.

Regarding the question what the Dayton Peace Agreement brought to BosniaandHerzegovina,twopredominantopinionsappearinthetheoreticalandotherdiscussions.ThefirstarguesthattheDaytonPeaceAgreementresolvedtheissueofthewarbystoppingitandthatitcreatedthebasisonwhichBosniaandHerze-govinacanrestoreinternalintegration,builddemocraticinstitutions,strengthenpeaceandjointheEuro-Atlanticintegrations.ThesecondarguesthattheAgreementdividedBosniaandHerzegovinaonethnicbasissincetheethnicprinciplebecamedominantintheinternalorganisationandfunctioningofthestate.BosniaandHerzegovinathereforebecameanonfunction-alandexpensivestate(BosniaandHerzegovinaisastatewith13parliamentsand

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governments:10cantonal,twoentityandoneofthestate).TwothirdsofGDPareallocatedforpublicexpenses-theadministration.Thediscussionabout theabovetwopolarisedopinionsgaverise to the ideaofupgradingtheDaytonPeaceAgreementinordertoprovidethebasisforestablish-mentofafunctionalorganisationofthestateasintheEUMemberStates.How-ever,thisideaisstillfarfromaconsensusbothintheinternationalcommunityandinthepoliticalsphereofBosniaandHerzegovina.

THE BASIC ELEMENTS OF THE POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA IN THE POST-DAYTON PERIOD AND THE RESULTS OF THE 2002 ELECTIONS

TheDaytonPeaceAgreementwastheframeworkforthepoliticaldevelopmentofBosniaandHerzegovina in thepost-warperiod.During thepasteightyearsBosniaandHerzegovinadistanceditselffromthewar’srealitybutithasstillnotfoundtheanswerstothemajorquestionsofeconomicandsocialdevelopment.Duringthefirstpost-Daytonyears,thebasicissuesrelatedtothelifeandsecurityofthecitizensweredealtwith.Thoseissueswerethefreedomofmovementandthereconstructionofinfrastructure.Bridges,watersupply,schools,hospitals,elec-tricitysupplynetwork,telephonenetworkandtransportwerereconstructed.Thedonationsof the internationalcommunitywerecertainandsubstantial.BosniaandHerzegovinareceived$5billionofdonationsfromtheinternationalcommu-nity.Mostofthefundswereinvestedintheinfrastructureandthereconstructionofthesettlementsforthereturnedrefugees.However,noinvestmentsweremadeinthereconstructionoftheeconomy.Theinvestmentswerenotpossiblewithoutpriorprivatisationofthestatepropertyandstatecompanies(privatisationstartedin1997andhasnotbeencompletedyet).Theprocessofprivatisationisveryslow.Evenafterseveralyearsoftheprocess,majorcompaniessuchasEnergoinvest,Krivaja,SodasoandHidrigradjahavestillnotbeenprivatised.Accordingtotheestimationsofeconomists,BosniaandHerzegovinawillachieveitspre-warlevelofproductiononlyin2010.Unemploymentisthemostburningsocialanddevel-opmentissueinBosniaandHerzegovina.Therateofunemploymentis40%(incomparisonwithSloveniawheretherateofunemploymentis13%).Theissuewhichessentiallyaffectsthepoliticaldevelopmentinthepost-Daytonperiodistheissueofthereturnofrefugeesanddisplacedpersonstotheirpre-warplacesofliving.Thereturnofrefugeesatthesametimerepresentsthereconstruc-tionofthepre-warmultiethnicstructureofsocietyinBosniaandHerzegovinaaswellastheestablishmentofEuropeanandinternationalstandardsfortheprotec-

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tionofhumanrights.Iftherefugeesanddisplacedpersonshavetherighttoreturntheirpropertyandifthereissecurityandeconomicbasisforthereconstructionoflivingconditions,itisthesignthattheruleoflawandtheprotectionofcitizenrightsarerespected.The ideaof thereturnofrefugeeshadbeenobstructedby the leadingpoliticalstructuresuntiltheHighRepresentativeintroducedspecialpropertyprovisionsin1998whichprotecttherightofthecitizenstoreturntheirproperty:apartments,houses,land,businesspremises.Duringthefirstpost-waryearsthereturnofrefugeesrepresentedapoliticalinstru-mentforthreeleadingnationalparties:SDS(SerbianDemocraticParty),HDZ(CroatianDemocraticUnion)andSDA(PartyofDemocraticAction).Anethnicnote has been attributed to the return of refugees. In the Republic of Srpska,theSDSdiscouragedtheSerbsfromreturningtotheFederationofBosniaandHerzegovinaandatthesametimepreventedtheBosniaksandtheCroatsfromreturningtotheterritoryoftheRepublicofSrpska.TheHDZdiscouragedtheCroatsfromreturningtotheRepublicofSrpskaandtotownsincentralBosnia.IntheNeretvavalley,settlementscalled»Šuškovasela«werebuiltfortheCroats.TheSDAadvocatedethnicreciprocityandagreedtothereturnoftheSerbstoSarajevo,TuzlaandothertownsinthenumberatwhichtheBosniakswereabletoreturntoBanjaluka,Foča,ZvornikandVišegrad.Theinternationalcommunityhasgraduallyreducedthedonations,especiallysince2000,whenitsattentionwasredirectedtowardsKosovo.According to available information, 900.000 refugees returned to Bosnia andHerzegovina from 1996 to 2003. Most refugees returned to the areas wheretheethnicpopulationtowhichtheybelongrepresentsthemajority.Duringthesameperiod,100.000citizensofSerbiannationalityreturnedtotheFederationofBosniaandHerzegovinaandmorethan100.000Bosniaksand10.000CroatsreturnedtotheRepublicofSrpska.Thisfiguresarestillofmerelysymbolicvalueinrelationtotherealreconstructionofthepre-warethnicstructureinBosniaandHerzegovina.However,thereareseveralotherissuesrelatedtorefugees.Firstly,severalhundredthousandscitizensofBosniaandHerzegovina(about700.000)appliedforthecitizenshipofthestatewheretheywerelivingasrefugees.Secondly, thereturnedrefugeeshavenoeconomicbasis forsurvival,especiallynotintowns.ThepropertyisthereforebeingsoldandanewwaveofemigrationofyoungpeopletotheEuropeanandoverseascountrieshasstarted.Accordingtotheestimationsabout150.000youngpeoplewithfinishededucationemigratedfromBosniaandHerzegovinafrom1996to2003.

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THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS DURING THE POST-DAYTON PERIOD IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA COMPRISES SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS

Theinternationalcommunitypaidmostattentiontotheorganisationandrealisa-tionoftheelectionsofpublicauthorities.Thefirstpost-warelectionswerecarriedoutin1996andthemajorityintheparliamentswaswonbytheethnicsingle-na-tionalSDS,HDZandSDAparties.ThosepartiescouldnotreachaconsensusonanyimportantissuesintheParliamentaryAssemblyofBosniaandHerzegovina.Thedecisionson thecoat-of-arms, the flag, thebanknoteandcarplatesweremadebytheOHR-HighRepresentativeoftheInternationalCommunity.The1998electionsbroughtnochanges:thenationalpartieswerestillpredomi-nant.Onlythe2000electionsbroughtachangeinthepoliticalstructureofBosniaandHerzegovina.Thepartiesofthedemocraticchangesleadbythelargestop-positionforce,theSocialDemocraticParty,formedtheAllianceforChangeandonthebasisofmajorityformedthegovernmentoftheFederationofBosniaandHerzegovinaandtheCouncilofMinistersintheParliamentaryAssemblyofBos-niaandHerzegovina.TheAlliancewasinpowerfortwoyears.Duringthatperiod,threeprojectsofimmenseimportanceforthepoliticaldevelopmentofBosniaandHerzegovinawererealised:· accessionofBosniaandHerzegovinatotheCouncilofEuropewasachieved· State Border Service was formed to control the borders of Bosnia and

Herzegovina· discrimination on ethnic basis was abolished with the adoption of the

constitutional amendment on the constitutiveness of the nation for theFederationofBosniaandHerzegovinaandtheRepublicofSrpska

· parallelismwasachievedintheexercisingofpowerbySDAandHDZ.

However,theAlliancedidnotsucceedincarryingouttheeconomicreformwhichthecitizensexpected.Itfailedtostopthegrowthofunemployment.Itfailedtocreatetheenvironmentforforeigninvestments.Itdidnotcarryouttheprivatisa-tionoflargecompanies.Itfailedtostopthecorruption.Thisfurtherdisappointedthevotingbody,especiallytheyouth.AttheelectionsinOctober2002,thevotingbody(thecitizens)inawaypunishedtheAllianceforChangebyfailingtoappearattheelections.Only53%ofthecitizensofBosniaandHerzegovinatookpartattheelections.TheyfurtherpunishedtheAlliancebygivingtheirvotestothenationalparties.ThemostvotesweregiventoSDSintheRepublicofSrpskaandtoSDAandHDZintheFederationofBosniaandHerzegovina.Thisreflected

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inaway the situation from1990and1996when theelections for the seats inthePresidencyofBosniaandHerzegovinawerewonby threenationalparties:HDZ,SDSandSDA.Atthe2002elections,thecandidatesofnationalpartieswereelectedasmembersofthePresidency:SDA–SulejmanTihić;SDS–MirkoŠarović;HDZ–DraganČović(ŠarovićwasreplacedbyBorislavParavacfromtheSerbianDemocraticPartyin2003bythedecisionoftheHighRepresentativeforBosniaandHerzegovina).ThemajorityintheentityparliamentsandtheparliamentofBosniaandHerze-govinawasformedconsensuallybythreeethnicparties:SDS,HDZandSDA.Intheformationoftheparliamentarymajorityafterthe2002elections,thePartyofDemocraticActionwasjoinedbythePartyforBiHandtheSerbianDemocraticPartywasjoinedbythePartyofDemocraticProgress.58partiestookpartatthe2002elections.ThestructureofelecteddeputiestotheParliamentaryAssemblyofBosniaandHerzegovinaisasfollows:Therearealltogether14partieswithcandidateselectedtotheParliamentaryAssembly(TableIV).Themost(10)seatswerewonbythePartyofDemocraticAction.10.ThePartyforBiHisatthesecondplacewith6seats.TheSerbianDemocraticPartyandCroatianDemocraticUnionhave5seatseach,theSocialDemocraticPartyhas4seatsandtheIndependentSocialDemocratsoftheRepublicofSrpskahave3seats.ThePartyofDemocraticProgresshas2deputiesand7minorpartieshaveoneseateachintheParliamentofBosniaandHerzegovina.

CHARACTERISTICS OF PARTY PLURALISM IN THE POST-DAYTON PERIOD OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

In order to understand the main features of political pluralism in Bosnia andHerzegovinaintheperiodaftertheDaytonPeaceAgreementit isnecessarytolook back at the time when political pluralism was introduced in Bosnia andHerzegovina.Thesingle-partysystemwasabolishedin1990whenpoliticalpar-tieswereformedinBosniaandHerzegovinawhichweretotakepartinthefirstmulti-party elections held in November 1990. In contrast to the other formerYugoslavrepublicswherethepartieswereformedonthebasisofideologicalandpoliticalcriteriaastheright-,central-andleft-wingparties,twoblocksofpoliticalpartieswere formed inBosniaandHerzegovina:Thefirstblockcomprisedthenational, i.e. single-ethnicparties: thePartyofDemocraticAction, theSerbianDemocraticPartyandtheCroatianDemocraticUnion.Thesewerenewpartieswithoutanyencumbrancesfromthepast.Theyshowedmorecharacteristicsofmovementsthanofparties.Thestructureofmembershipwasbasedexclusivelyonthecitizens’nationality.The second block comprised the non-national parties. They had one common

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characteristic: theywerecitizen’sparties.Theirmembershipandexpressionofinterestwasbasedonafreecitizen,thereforeoncitizensofallnationalgroups.Citizenorientationandmultinationalcompositionwerethemaincharacteristicsof the citizens’ parties block. Another but not primary characteristic of thesepartieswastheirideologicalandpoliticaladherencetotheright,centralandleftwing.Since1990thisgrouphasincludedtheSocialDemocraticParty,thePartyofReformers,theDemocraticPartyofSocialists,theLiberalParty,theMuslimBosniak Organisation, the Citizen Democratic Party and other parties. Thesepartiesweretotallydefeatedatthefirstmulti-partyelectionsin1990whenover80%ofvotesweregiventothesingle-nationalHDZ,SDAandSDAparties.InDecember1990thethreepartieswithabsolutemajorityformedthegovernmentand the structureofpower. In thisway inBosnia andHerzegovina,where thepopulationthroughouttheterritoryisethnicallymixed,politicalpluralismwithan ethnicnotewas legally established (through free elections).Political adher-ence coincided with national adherence. Since then ethnic political pluralismstartedtodevelopinBosniaandHerzegovina,whichledtopoliticaloppositionandconflictsofethnicpartiesintheParliamentofBosniaandHerzegovina.Thecoalitionunionof the threenationalparties, thoughnotconfirmedandsignedthroughanagreement,startedtodisintegratealreadyduringthefirstyearofitspower.Thatwastheyear1991whichwasmarkedasthehistoricalturningpointforthepoliticaldevelopmentofBosniaandHerzegovinainthedissolutionproc-ess of SFRY. In that year, decisions were made by the two opposing politicaloptions on the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina while the Yugoslav socialistfederationwasdissolving.OnonesidetherewerepoliticalforceswhichfavouredtheoptionoftheindependentpoliticaldevelopmentofBosniaandHerzegovinaandtherealisationofcitizens’referendumregardingthisoption.Thisgroupofpolitical forces includedSDA,HDZandallcitizenparties.ThesecondoptionwasrepresentedbypoliticalpartieswhichopposedtheindependentdevelopmentofthestateofBosniaandHerzegovina:Karadžić’sSDAandDrašković’sSerbianMovementforRenewal.ThelatterwantedtoretainBosniaandHerzegovinainrump(Milošević’s)Yugoslavia,whichwasonlyamaskfortheideaofthe»GreatSerbia«.Theone-yearunionofthethreeethnicpartiesdisintegratedwhenitcametotheissueofthestatusofthestateortheindependentdevelopmentofBosniaandHerzegovina.Thecoalitionofthethreeethnicpartiesdissolvedatthebegin-ningof1992whenthecitizensdecidedinareferenduminfavourofindependentand internationally recognised state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Serbiandemocratic party resigned from the Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina andstartedwithpoliticalandmilitaryactivitiesatPalenearSarajevo.Withitsresigna-tionfromthestructureofcommonstatepowerofBosniaandHerzegovina,SDAactuallydecidedfortheuseofforceinordertoachieveitspoliticalgoalswhich

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weretojointhewholeormostoftheterritoryofBosniaandHerzegovinatoSer-biaandMonteNegro.ThispoliticalcontextleadtoaggressionagainstBosniaandHerzegovinaandthefour-yearwar.Whyisthebeginningofthewarmarkedasaggression?Mainlybecauseoneparty(SDS),backedwiththeBelgraderegime,usedweaponsandtheforcesofformerJNA (Yugoslav People’s Army) to occupy 70% of the territory of Bosnia andHerzegovinabyJune1992.TheperiodafterthesigningoftheDaytonPeaceAgreement(i.e.since1996)inawayreflectsthepre-warstructureofpoliticalpluralism.Threeethnicpartieswonthefirstpost-warelectionsin1996.TheelectionsformembersofthePresidencyofBosniaandHerzegovinawerewonbythecandidatesofethnicparties:SDA–AlijaIzetbegović,SDS–MomčiloKrajišnikandHDZ–KrešimirZubak.Thesepartieswon themajority in theParliamentaryAssemblyofBosnia andHerze-govinaandintheparliamentsoftheRepublicofSrpskaandtheFederationofBosniaandHerzegovina.Theirtermofofficewasmarkedwithconstantdissentofthethreepartiesregardinganyissuerelatedtothesocial,economicandpoliticaldevelopmentofBosniaandHerzegovina.Therealtransitionwasexercisedonlyinsofarasitwassubjectofinternationalcommunityengagement.ThemeetingsofelectedstatebodieswereheldintheNationalMuseum(»Zemaljskimuzej«).TheSDSrepresentativesrefusedtocometothecentreofSarajevoandtostayatthepremisesofthePresidencyandtheParliamentofBosniaandHerzegovina.Only at the second post-Dayton elections in 1998, new parties were formedemergingfromthedissatisfactionwiththenationalparties.AgroupofactivistsseparatedfromtheSDAandformedthePartyforBiHledbyHarisSilajdžić.An-othergroupofactivistsseparatedfromtheHDZandformedanewpartycalledtheIndependentCroatianInitiativeledbyKrešimirZubak.BiljanaPlavšićsepa-ratedfromtheSDSandwithagroupoffollowersformedtheSerbianNationalUnion.Consequently,thepoliticalmonopolyofthethreeethnicpartiesstartedtoweaken.Theunionoftwosocialdemocraticparties-theSocialDemocraticPartyofBosniaandHerzegovinaandtheSocialDemocrats-alongwiththeformationanddevelopmentofthePartyofIndependentSocialDemocratsledbyMiloradDodikintheRepublicofSrpskafurthercontributedtothisprocess.Thisbroughtanewstructureanddirectionofthedevelopmentforpoliticalplural-isminBosniaandHerzegovina.Atthe2000elections,thenewstructureofpartypluralismwasconfirmedbythecitizensofBosniaandHerzegovinawhenmostconfidencewasplacedinthecitizens’parties.Ledbythelargestoppositionparty-theSocialDemocraticParty-thecitizens’partieswereunitedintheAllianceforChangetoformthegovernmentintheFederationofBosniaandHerzegovinaandtogetherwithsomepartiesfromtheRepublicofSrpskaestablishedthemajorityintheParliamentaryAssemblyofBosniaandHerzegovinaandformedtheCoun-

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cilofMinistersofBosniaandHerzegovina.AccordingtocompetentanalyststheAllianceforChangehadsoundprojectsfortheEuropeanpathinthepoliticaldevelopmentofBosniaandHerzegovinaandsoundprojectforeconomicreforms.Itmanagedtofulfiltheconditionsforacces-sionofBosniaandHerzegovinatotheCouncilofEurope.However,itwasnotdecisiveenoughregardingtheprojectsforeconomicreforms.Itfailedtopreventradicallytheprocessesofincreasingpoverty,emigrationoftheyouth,corruptionetc.TheAlliancewasinpowerforonly2yearswhichwastooshorttorealisetheintendedprojects.Underthosecircumstances,achangehappenedattheelectionsinOctober2002.SDS,HDZandSDAgainedagainthedominantpositionbutnotwithabsolutemajority.Namely,thesocialandpoliticalsceneofBosniaandHerzegovinasawthereturnofthepartieswhichhadfailedtoreachaconsensusduringtheirpowerinthepreviousdecaderegardingallimportantissuesofthedevelopmentofthestateofBosniaandHerzegovina.ItwastheHighRepresentativeoftheInterna-tionalCommunitywhotookdecisionsintheParliamentinsteadofthem.Duringthefirstyear(2003)ofhistermofoffice,HighRepresentativePediEsh-daunadoptedover70legislativeandotherdocuments.Themaindisagreementbe-tweentheethnicpartiesin2003wastheissueofthenewconceptofunitedarmyofBosniaandHerzegovinaasoneoftheconditionsfortheaccessionofBosniaandHerzegovinatoPartnershipforPeaceandNATOAlliance.ThisconceptwasstubbornlyrefusedbytheSerbianDemocraticPartythoughiteventuallyagreedtoitinDecember2003afterpressurewasexertedbytheinternationalcommunity.BosniaandHerzegovinathusfulfilledtheconditionsforjoiningPartnershipforPeaceandNATOAlliance.WhentheStudyonthefeasibilityofaccessionofBosniaandHerzegovinatothestabilisationandassociationprocesswasmadeinNovember2003,HighRepre-sentativePediEshdaunexpressedhisconcern that the leadingstructureof theethnicpartiesmaynot introduce at the requiredpace theEuropean standardsrequiredfortheaccessionofBosniaandHerzegovinatotheEuropeanUnion.

CONCLUSION

A.DaytonPeaceAgreementandBosniaandHerzegovina· The Dayton Peace Agreement marked the end of the war in Bosnia and

Herzegovina.· TheDaytonPeaceAgreementestablishedanewinternalstructureinBosnia

andHerzegovinawithadominant roleof entities in the functioningof thestate.

· ThefunctioningofthestateofBosniaandHerzegovinaduringthepasteight

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yearsofthepost-DaytonperiodhasshownthelimitationsoftheDaytonPeaceAgreementasregardsthepossibilityforanefficientfunctioningofthestate.

· The European path to political development of the state of Bosnia andHerzegovinaenvisages:- the upgrading of the Dayton Peace Agreement, amendments of the

Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, establishment of economicregions, transfer of competence of entities to the central bodies of thestate of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the fields of defence, security andjurisdiction (the new act on single army defence was adopted by theParliamentaryAssemblyofBosniaandHerzegovinaat thebeginningofDecember2003);

- acceleratedprocessof introducingEuropeanstandards in theeconomicand political sphere with the aid of international community in theframework of accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the EuropeanUnion. This path has prevented the great national projects for ethnicdivision of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the instability in the region ofSoutheastEurope.TheEuropeanCommissionhasreceivedtheStudyonthefeasibilityofaccessionofBosniaandHerzegovinatotheStabilisationandAssociationAgreement.ThisrepresentsthebeginningoftheBrusselsphase in the political development of Bosnia and Herzegovina and itsaccessiontotheEuropeanUnionandtheconclusionoftheprocessoftheinternationalisationoftheBosnianissue.

B.CharacteristicsofpartypluralisminBosniaandHerzegovinainthepost-Daytonperiod· A stable development of democracy in a society primarily depends on the

capabilityofpoliticalpartiestoestablishaconsensusontheeconomic,socialandculturalprogressofthestate.

· Pluralisationof thepolitical sphere inBosniaandHerzegovinawascarriedoutin1990contrarytothemodernconceptofpoliticalorganisationinthecountriesofWestEurope:thebasisforpartyorganisationwasnotthecitizenbuthisnationality.

· Insteadof formingpolitical-interest partiesof citizens in the formof right,leftandcentralparties,theblockofethnicpartiesandtheblockofcitizens’partieswereformedinBosniaandHerzegovina.Insteadofpoliticalpluralism,ethnicpluralismwasestablished inBosniaandHerzegovinawhich in itself(territorialisation of powers of ethnic parties) generates unstable politicaldevelopmentofBosniaandHerzegovina.

· Duringthepasttwelveyearsofpartypluralism,ethnicpartieswonfouroutoffiveparliamentaryelections.Theyholdamonopolyintheeconomyandthe

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media andare supportedby the religious communities.Theycarryout theterritorialisationofpower.

· Theabolishmentofethnicdemocracyandtheweakeningofnationalpartieswhichduring thewholedecade failed tooffer a consensuson thenationaldevelopmentofBosniaandHerzegovinainvolves:- modificationsoftheConstitutionofBosniaandHerzegovinaandabolition

of thepredominantethnicbasis in the internal structureof the stateofBosniaandHerzegovina(whilethedemocraticforcesin2003advocateareformofpoliticalsystemandtheadoptionofanewconstitution,BorislavParavac,memberofthePresidencyofBosniaandHerzegovinafromSDS,respondswithanotionofseparationoftheRepublicofSrpskafromthestateofBosniaandHerzegovina).

- providingmore support from the international community to theblockofcitizens’partiesandtotheirstrivingforinternalintegrationofBosniaand Herzegovina and its accession to the Euro-Atlantic institutions(in November 3003 a united block of opposition parties was formedcomposedoftwopartiesfromtheFederationofBosniaandHerzegovina:SDPandNHIandtwopartiesfromtheRepublicofSrpska:SNSDandSP).ThiswasthefirstattemptforunitedactionofoppositionforcesfromthetwoentitiesofBosniaandHerzegovinawithanadoptedplatformforprogrammeco-operation.

- Oneof theconstantproblemsof thedevelopmentofpoliticalpluralismin Bosnia and Herzegovina is the fragmented political sphere with 58parties.

____________________________________________________________

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