1st SRII Asia Summit 2013 16- 18 September, 2013, Bangkok, Thailand

Hiroyuki Konuma

FAO Assistant Director- General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific

2

World population is growing

Source: UN, 2011

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

20

55

20

60

20

65

20

70

20

75

20

80

20

85

20

90

20

95

21

00

developed Sub-Saharan Africa

NothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and Caribb

South Asia Eastern Asia

percentage annual growth rate (right scale)

millions

3

Rapid Global Urbanization

Source: UN, 2011

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.01

95

0

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

Rural Urban

billions

4

Food Consumption Trends

Source: Alexandratos, 2011

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050

Industrial countries Sub-Saharan Africa

Near East-North Africa Latin America & Caribbean

South Asia East Asia

Kcal/person/day

Can we produce sufficient

food to meet the demand of the

growing future population which

would reach 9.2 billion by 2050?

6

Food Security Outlook Towards Year 2050

7

56

317

170

24

77

60

0 100 200 300 400

developed countries

developing countries

world

percent

2005/07-

2050 (projected)

1961-2005/07 (observed)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

8

Sources of Production Growth (91% is expected to come from yield increase)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

world developing developed

(percent)

Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050

Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050

Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050

Stagnation of expansion of arable land Increasing scarcity of water resources Decline of productivity growth affected by lack of

investment in agriculture in recent decades Increasing post-harvest losses and table waste Various uncertainties such as future crude oil

prices, food price hike and volatilities, negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters, and bio-fuel development.

9

10

Limited Scope Exists for Expansion of Arable Land in Asian Countries

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Developed countries

sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America Near East / North Africa

South Asia East Asia

Arable land in use, 2005/07

Additional land projected to be in use, 2050

million ha

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

11

10th New Ag International Conference and Exhibition,

28 - 30 March 2012, Bangkok Source: Selected Indicators , FAO - RAP 2011

Water is a Key Requirement for Food

Production

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Wheat Rice (paddy) Maize Total cereals

1961-2007

2005-2050

Growth rate, percent per year

Source: Bruinsma 2011

Global Food Losses

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

cereals roots &

tubers

oilseeds &

pulses

fruits &

vegetables

meat fish &

seafood

dairy

products

Consumption

Distribution

Processing

Postharvest

Agriculture

8-Oct-2012 15

Wastage in Cereals Across Different Regions of

the Globe

Crude Oil Prices Increased By Over 500%

Since 1999

Download full dataset:

Excel, CSV | For more information contact us.

18

“Worse case” 2080 scenario:

Less harvested area, up to

-39% (World) and -29%

(developing countries)

Up to 130 million more

undernourished in S-SH

Africa

Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011)

Source: IPCC (2007)

Uncertainty: Climate Change

The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America

Number of Disasters

Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.

20

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030

mill

ion

tons

other uses bio-fuel

cereals

excl ricesugar oilcrops starchy roots

Source: Alexandratos, 2011

World Bio-ethanol and Bio-diesel Production is Projected to Double in 20 years between 2009 and 2018

“Worldwide demand for liquid biofuel will

rise significantly to 1.6 million barrels per

day by 2015 and to 2.7 million barrels in

2030, thus meeting 5 percent of

total world road transport energy demand

(Tubiello and van der Velde (2010).

Global Demand for Liquid Biofuel is Expected to Continue to Show an Increasing Trend

Biofuel Production and Consumption Shows A

Rapid Growth Trend Across the Asian Region

Source: FAO BEFS

Asia-Pacific Biofuel Production and Consumption

40th Session of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) held in October 2013 in Rome (attended by 121 countries and 37 Ministers/Vice Ministers) agreed that: Biofuel development encompasses both

opportunities and risks Food security should be priority concerns

of biofuel development which should not compromise food security.

Biofuel development should especially consider women and smallholders

Bio-fuel policies are coherent with food

security to minimize the risks of

competition and maximize opportunities of

biofuels in relation to food security.

Promote coordination of food security and

biofuel development strategies, and

sustainable management of natural

resources.

The High-Level Panel of Expert (HLPE) report issued in October 2013 recommended more clearly that:

Government should adopt the principle that biofuel shall not compromise food security

The Governments should adopt a coordinated food security and energy security strategy, which would require articulation around the following five axes/dimensions:

1. Adapt to the global, market –driven dinamics

2. Address the land, water and resource

implications of biofuel policies

3. Foster the transition from biofuels to

complehensive food-energy policy

4. Promote research and development

5. Develop methods and guidelines for

coordinated food,biofuels, bio-energy

policies at national and international levels

Food security, smallholder and gender

concerns should be integrated in bio-fuel

research and development.

Promote R&D in improving biofuel efficiency in

both resources and processes.

Exploring new technology including 2nd and 3rd

generations.

Promote international cooperation, SSC and

public-private sector partnership

Research should examine if and how both first- and

second-generation biofuels could contribute to restoring

degraded land and to the better management of

watersheds.

R&D resources should be dedicated to accelerating the

commercial feasibility of more advanced renewable

energy pathways.

In order to better inform decision-making, governments,

FAO, research and associated institutions should

promote and facilitate exchange of information and

cooperation for food security and biofuels assessments

and projections, including by providing transparent

information on assumptions, methods, tools and data

used.

Indonesia and Malaysia lead in production and export of biodiesel from palm oil.

Thailand produces ethanol and biodiesel.

Philippines producing and using biodiesel from coconut oil and jathropa

Viet Nam producing ethanol and biodiesel from non-conventional feedstocks including cellulosic seaweed and fish oil

Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia – Biodiesel production from jatropha

Source: Bhandhubanyong (2008)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Indonesia Malaysia

Philippines Thailand

Viet Nam

2008-2010

2020

(mil

lio

n lit

res)

Selected Indicators Indicators , FAO - RAP 2011

Food security

Society

Environment

Economy

Risks and Trade Offs to be Confronted

If managed properly the bio-energy sector can present a range of opportunities to develop clean domestic energy sources

Negative Impacts Positive Impacts Food insecurity for the poor, and particularly the urban poor could increase if bio-fuel production pushed aside food production and prices for agricultural products increased.

Contributes to generating new stimuli in the agricultural sector, that offer new opportunities and increased income earnings for rural communities.

Achieving a balance necessitates the development of innovative food security policies that support the integration of bio-energy crop production with food production.

Production of second-generation biofuels • Fuels produced from a wide array of different feedstock,

ranging from lignocellulosic feedstocks (from crop residues, grasses and wood) to municipal solid wastes.

Production of third generation biofuels • Fuels produced from algal biomass which has a very

distinctive growth yield as compared with classical lignocellulosic biomass.

• Production of biofuels from algae is reliant on the lipid content of these organisms

Production of third generation biofuels

• Fuels produced from algal biomass which has a

very distinctive growth yield as compared with

classical lignocellulosic biomass.

• Production of biofuels from algae is reliant on the

lipid content of these organisms

Secretariat of CFS and HLPE

http://www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/029/MI3

41e.pdf

http://www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/029/mi7

44e.pdf

http://www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/029/mi0

32e.pdf

Agro Ecological Zoaning (GAEZ) http://www.fao.org/nr/gaez/en/

FAO TCP programme with ASEAN for the

harmonization of bioenergy and food security policy

http://www.fao.org/energy/befs/en/

http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1968e/i1968e00.htm

The bio-energy sector would present both risks on food security , and a range of opportunities for developing clean, domestic energy sources with additional benefits for rural development.

Achieving energy and food security simultaneously will necessitate that decision-makers, consider broader influences and trade-offs.

• R&D is important in improving the efficiency of biofuels regarding both resources and processes.

• Exploring new technologies including biofuels of the second and third generations is a key for future break though.

• Research partners are encouraged to devise solutions adapted to the needs of all stakeholders, especially those in least-developed countries and of women and smallholders who are most in need of access to modern energy services.

Requirement (Billion USD)

%

Primary crop production 1,684 57 Downstream support services

• Cold and dry storage

• Rural and wholesale markets

• First stage processing

1266 305 280 682

42.9 24

22.2 58.8

Cumulative Investment Requirements for East Asia - 2005/07 to 20501

1Source: Capital Requirements for Agriculture in Developing Countries to 2050. FAO Rome (2009) (All numbers are in 2009 US$ values)

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