The Myth of the Missing White Voters:

As Maine Goes, So Ends The Missing White Voter Theory

February 3, 2014

By Steven M. Kamp1

Did Mitt Romney lose because white voters stayed home?

Not in Maine or in its split electoral vote northern U.S.

House District 2, even though the rightwing psepho-

commentariat thinks so now that Real Clear Politics Senior

Elections Analyst Sean Trende2 has created The Missing White

Voter Theory and claimed it starts in northern Maine. The

1 Sacramento attorney Steven M. Kamp, a graduate of Yale Law School (1981) and the University of California at Los Angeles (1978), and a veteran of Democratic campaigns in multiple states back to 1972, is nearing completion of The New Democratic Majority, a book analyzing American voting patterns between 1788 and 2012 for President, Congress, Governors, state downballot offices, state legislatures and ballot propositions. Mr. Kamp can be reached at steve.kamp@comcast.net

Mr. Kamp has written the California election law manual for the California Democratic Party since 1988 and similar manuals for Nevada and Kentucky in 2008-2012.

The author thanks Patrick Reddy, Scott Rafferty, Harold Kwalwasser, and James Shoch for their editorial assistance.

Maps and election return data used with permission of David Leip and theU.S. Election Atlas website, "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections"http://uselectionatlas.org

2 As of December 7, 2013, Mr. Trende has not responded to the author’s November 3, 2013 read-receipt electronic mail message that attached an essentially identical version of this article, even though Mr. Trende ina September 4, 2013 electronic mail message promised to respond to the author’s Ohio article “but not for several weeks.”

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Theory has spawned a debate that even became a cover story

in The Week.3 Trouble is, the Theory is not based on actual

registered voters and actual voting, but rather on a Census

estimate that has both overestimated and underestimated

actual registration and voting, both nationally and in Ohio,

Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, four states

essential to Republican White House hopes in 2016 and 2020,

and in Maine. This author has already explained why the

Missing White Voter Theory will not flip the static-

population states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the Dynamic

Dominion of Virginia, or New Hampshire, into the Republican

column.4 This article will now explain why the Missing White

Voter Theory will not flip Maine or its’ U.S. House District

2 – the latter, along with New Hampshire and Pennsylvania,

3 July 26, 2013, page 16, “Talking Points -- Immigration: Can the GOP win as the White Party?”, and front cover. 4 “The Myth of the Missing White Voters: In Ohio, Not Registered and Not Voting –While Columbus Rocks for the Democrats.”

“The Myth of the Missing White Voters: Virginia Is For Lovers, Not Missing White Voters” “The Myth of the Missing White Voters:

Pennsylvania – Tombstone State for The Theory “

“The Myth of the Missing White Voters:

New Hampshire – Democrats Vote Freely And Aren’t Dying”

2

is one of only three Eastern Blue Wall electoral vote

jurisdictions targeted by Republicans in 2000 through 2012.5

Who cares about a single electoral vote from Northern

Maine? Republicans. If Republicans in 2016 or 2020 poach

Maine-2 and its’ single electoral vote, and also sneak away

with 4 from New Hampshire and 20 from Pennsylvania, the

Democratic Blue Wall 257 drops by 25 to 232 – 38 electoral

votes short of 270, meaning the 13 from Virginia are not

enough to close the sale. Instead, Democrats must either

hold Florida (29) and one other state with at least nine

electoral votes (such as Colorado (9), Virginia (13) or Ohio

(18)), or if the Democrats lose Florida, hold all three of

Virginia (13), Ohio (18), and Colorado (9), giving Democrats

271. If Democrats lose Florida and Colorado, holding

Nevada’s 6 electoral votes will not be enough, because the

Nevada 6 + Virginia (13) and Ohio (18) add up to only 37,

resulting in an Electoral College tie of 269-269 and giving

the White House to the Republicans unless Democrats have a

majority of 26 state delegations (in the current House,

5 2012: New Hampshire 51.98% (Obama state 22), Pennsylvania 51.96% (Obama state 23) --national plus 0.97, 0.95. Only lower percentages are in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Florida.

2008: New Hampshire 54.13% (Obama state 21), Pennsylvania 54.47% (Obama state 20) – national plus 1.26%, 1.60%. Minnesota and Iowa had lower percentages – 54.06%, 53.94%.

In the Maine-2 U.S. House district, the Obama percentages were 52.75% in2012 and 54.61% in 2008.

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Democrats control the delegation in only 18 states). In the

2012 campaign, Romney made headlines in Maine by expressly

concentrating on flipping U.S. House district 2; Republicans

in the 2011 Legislature were able to move 2,500 more

registered Republicans into the district, and unsuccessfully

attempted to add more.6

Any other reason why Northern Maine is so important?

Sean Trende says The Missing White Voter diagonal starts

there:

The drop in turnout occurs in a rough diagonal, stretching from northern Maine, across upstate New York (perhaps surprisingly, turnout in post-Sandy New York City dropped off relatively little), and down into New Mexico. Michigan and the non-swing state, non-Mormon Mountain West also stand out. Note also that turnout is surprisingly stable in the Deep South; Romney’s problemwas not with the Republican base or evangelicals (who constituted a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2004).7

Moreover, Maine in 1992 was one of two states where Ross

Perot finished second8 and according to Sean Trende, the

best indicator for Missing White Voters is an above-national

Ross Perot vote:

6 Portland Press-Herald, September 20, 2012, “Republicans Think Romney could split Maine” (John Richardson); Bangor Daily News, November 6, 2012, “Romney’s results in northern Maine could make Electoral College history” (Christopher Cousins); Michael Barone, The Almanac of American Politics 2014, pages 752 (“Presidential politics”, saying “In 2012, Maine was not at all a target state”) and 753 (“Congressional redistricting”).

7 Sean Trende June 21, 2013 article in Real Clear Politics.

8 The other is Utah, where national winner Bill Clinton was pushed down to third place.

4

For those with long memories, this [diagonal] stands out as the heart of the “Perot coalition.” That coalition was strongest with secular, blue-collar, often rural voters who were turned off by Bill Clinton’s perceived liberalism and George H.W. Bush’s elitism. They were largely concentrated in the North and Mountain West: Perot’s worst 10 national showings occurred in Southern and border states. His best showings? Maine, Alaska, Utah, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, Montana, Wyoming, Oregon and Minnesota.

In 1992 Maine, Ross Perot scored 30.44 percent (national

plus 11.53), and in the 16 Maine counties, carried three and

finished second in seven others. The incumbent President

and Kennebunkport summer home owner (Bush the Elder)

achieved no higher than 34.09% (in York County, home of

Kennebunkport). The Ross Perot Air Raid of 1992 effectively

cratered the Republican majority in Maine, which in 1988 had

given candidate Bush 55.34% and majorities in each of the 16

counties.

The 1988 Bush win was the last gasp of more than a

century of steady Republican majorities that gave rise to

the aphorism “As Maine Goes, So Goes The Nation.” In the 34

Presidential elections between 1856 and 1988, Maine went

Democratic only three times: a plurality for Woodrow Wilson

in 1912, a landslide for President Johnson in 1964, and a

small landslide in 1968 for the Humphrey-Muskie ticket. In

the six elections between 1992 and 2012, Maine has gone

Democratic every time (for six tickets from Arkansas-

Tennessee, Tennessee-Connecticut, Massachusetts-North

Carolina, and Illinois-Delaware), and no Republican

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candidate has achieved better than 44.58% (President Bush

the Younger, 2004).

So why do Republicans think they can poach an electoral

vote from northern Maine? Because U.S. House district 2 is

more rural than Portland-centered U.S. House district 1

(“Portlandia”), and Democratic percentages post-1988 have

been as low as 37.62% (Clinton 1992), 47.43% (Gore 2000) and

no higher than 54.61% (Obama 2008). In 2012, the Obama

percentage fell to 52.75%. The latter is only 1.74

percentage points above national, so Republicans will likely

keep trying, although the closest raw margin loss for any

post-1988 Republican was 5,660 in 2000, and the closest raw

margin since the split electoral votes began in 1972 was the

President Ford 1976 margin of 620, which means that Jimmy

Carter almost became the first Presidential candidate to

split an electoral vote in Maine since Andrew Jackson in

1828, two largely forgotten facts.

Four reasons why the GOP cannot flip Maine-2. However,

there are at least four reasons why The Missing White Voter

Theory will not flip Maine-2 for the Republicans in 2016 or

2020:

First, the linchpin of The Theory is a surge from

Republican voters of 2004 who missed 2008 and 2012 – yet in

the six northern Maine rural counties in U.S. House district

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29, the growth in the number of registered nonvoters between

2004 and 2012 was all of two hundred fourteen, and in the five

metropolitan counties wholly or partially in district 210,

the 2004-2012 registered nonvoter growth was all of 9,902.

Republicans in 2016 could turn out and win all 10,116 of

these votes, and still lose Maine-2, because the 2012 Obama

margin there was 28,438.11

Second, the number of 2012 registered nonvoters in the

six District 2 rural counties was 62,927, and in the five

metropolitan counties was 112,803. Assuming all of these

175,730 registered 2012 nonvoters are in district 212, at

the 55 percent turnout rate used by Sean Trende in his

articles13 , only 96,651 new voters are added, and to defeat

the 2012 Obama district 2 margin of 28,438, the new voters

9 From Down East to west: Washington (Lubec-Eastport), Aroostook (Fort Kent-Presque Isle), Piscataquis, Somerset, Oxford, and Franklin. 10 Wholly within district 2: Waldo (Belfast), Hancock (Bar Harbor), Penobscot (Bangor), Androscoggin (Lewiston). Split between districts 2 and 1: Kennebec (Augusta-Waterville).

District 1 includes all of Cumberland (Portland), York (Kennebunkport), Sagadahoc, Lincoln and Knox.

11 The 2008 Obama margin in Maine-2 was 39,109.

12 Some of them probably are not, because in 2004, 2008 and 2012, Kennebec County was split between the two districts. The other four (Hancock, Waldo, Penobscot and Androscoggin) were wholly within district2. Unfortunately, the Maine Secretary of State website does not break down registration data by congressional district.13

? In his June 21, 2013 article, Trende stated under point 1: “If we assume that these “new” voters would vote at a 55 percent rate . . .”

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would have to break 64 percent Republican, 33 percent

Democratic, and 3 percent Others14; to top the 2008 Obama

district 2 margin of 39,109, the additional turnout would

need to break 70 percent Republican, 27 percent

Democratic.15

Third, between 2004 and 2012, the Republican raw vote

for President in district 2 fell by 15,532, whereas the

Democratic vote fell by only 7,85616. In Portland-centered

district 1 -- which Sean Trende concedes to the Democrats –

the Republican raw vote for President fell by 13,251,

whereas the Democratic vote rose by 10,249. Note that 2004

produced the highest Republican Presidential raw vote in

Maine (330,201) since the President Reagan 1984 number of

336,500, which still holds the all-time Republican record.

Fourth, the only party gaining registrants in rural

northern Maine is the Green Independent party, which between

14 “Others” in Maine received 2.75 percent in 2012, 3.43% in 1996, 3.02%in 1996; between 1.50 and 1.91 percent in 2000, 2004 and 2008; 1.95 percent in 1980; and 3.02% in 1976.

The calculation in the text above assumes the 96,651 break Republican 64% (R + 61,856), offset by Democratic 33% (31,894), with Others taking 3% (2,899), resulting in a net Republican gain of 29,962, topping the Obama 2012 margin of 28,438 by 1,524 votes. 15 This calculation assumes the 96,651 break Republican 70% (R + 67,655), offset by Democratic 27% (26,095), with Others taking 3% (2,899), resulting in a net Republican gain of 41,560, topping the Obama2008 margin of 39,109 by 2,451 votes.

16 Statistics taken from the David Leip U.S. Election Atlas website, www.uselectionatlas.org The 2011 redistricting shifted parts of Kennebec County between districts 1 and 2.

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2004 and 2012 in the six rural northern Maine district 2

counties added 3,063, and in the five metropolitan District

2 counties, added 6,331 – at 9,394, this growth in Green

Independent registration is almost equal to the 10,116

registered nonvoter growth that is the linchpin of The

Theory.

The Theory also will not flip Maine-1 or the two

electoral votes for the statewide winner, since in the five

counties wholly within Portland-centered district 1, the

registered nonvoter growth between 2004 and 2012 is 10,430;

the Democratic raw vote for President rose by 11,200,

whereas the Republican fell by 17,623; Democratic partisan

voter registration rose by 15,745, whereas the Republican

number fell by 7,319.

If these trends hold up in 2016 and 2020, Maine, New

Hampshire and Pennsylvania will serve as 28 critical

electoral votes in the Democratic Blue Wall of 257 electoral

votes17, insuring Democrats will win the Electoral College

by adding the 13 electoral votes from Virginia, or 18 from

Ohio, or 29 from Florida, or 15 from the combination of

Colorado and Nevada. Thus, because The Missing White Voter

Theory does not work in rural Maine, New Hampshire or

Pennsylvania – the three Blue Wall electoral vote

jurisdictions targeted by the Republicans in 2000, 2004, 17 20 from Pennsylvania, 4 from New Hampshire, 4 from Maine, 218 from the other John Kerry 2004 jurisdictions, 6 from Iowa and 5 from New Mexico.

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2008 and 2012 -- it does not matter in 2016 or 2020,18

except as a secret Democratic black propaganda effort to

divert Republican resources (and this author knows nothing).

The Missing White Voter Theory: It Began With Non-Final Ohio returns

That Did Not Include Provisional Ballots

Two days after Election Night 2012, Real Clear Politics

Senior Elections Analyst Sean Trende, extrapolating from

non-final Ohio numbers19, opined that Romney lost the

national popular vote because (nationwide) 6.5 million

Caucasian Republican eligible voters “stayed home,”

including allegedly enough rural 2004 or 2008 Republican

voters to give Ohio to Obama.20 The Trende theory began in

Ohio, and likely ends in rural Maine somewhere between Fort

Kent and Bar Harbor. Caucasian turnout may have been down,

but not in the magnitude Trende claims – and not by enough

to alter the Maine-2 result, and with Maine and New

Hampshire, followed by Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia, went

18 In the next articles in this “Electoral College Junket” series, the author will analyze Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida, then North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri and Montana.

19 That did not include the 173,765 ultimately counted provisional ballots. Under Ohio law, absentees are counted first, followed by the machine ballots, but the counting of the provisionals does not begin until ten days after Election Day.

20 Sean Trende, Real Clear Politics, November 8, 2012, “The Case of the MissingWhite Voters.”

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any Republican hopes for the Electoral College. The “Missing

White Voter” route has become the proverbial yellow- or red-

bricked road for the rightwing commentariat and blogosphere.

However, The Missing White Voter Theory is more of a long

dead end road rather than a through street to victory for

the Republicans, because:

It is not based on actual registered voters or actual

voting, but on a post-election Census survey that in

2004, 2008 and 2012, did not come close to matching the

actual registered or voting population, not nationally,

not in Maine, not in New Hampshire, not in

Pennsylvania, and not in the swing states of Ohio or

Virginia.

In Maine, even using the Trende linchpin Census survey

estimates of the unregistered and registered nonvoters,

Republican cannot win except with 100 percent turnout

entirely in district 2 and a Republican percentage of 98

percent.

In the 2004, 2008 and 2012 Presidential year elections,

the registered nonvoter numbers in the six rural

Northern Maine counties were 62,927 in 2004 , 70,129 in

2008, and 62,713 in 2012. It is highly unlikely that

Caucasian solidarity appeals will stimulate a

sufficiently large Republican turnout to outpace the

28,438 President Obama district 2 margin from 2012 --

because this constituency is one that has regularly

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registered and failed to vote. In addition, the Presidential

elector ballot line was skipped by 11,578 Maine voters

in 201221.

If the reach of The Theory is expanded to the

unregistered population, the Census estimates for

eligible voters underperform the actual Maine total

registered voter numbers – by a rounded 17,000 in 2004,

53,000 in 2008, and 5,000 in 2012. In other words, the

only gap in Maine between the Census-estimated eligible

population and the actual registered population is a

reverse one.

The total number of actual net lost Republican votes

between 2004 and 2012 in the six Rural Northern Maine

counties is 8,568 – almost double the Democratic loss

of 4,365, which works out to a Republican margin loss

of 4,203, which is only 14.77 percent of the 2012

Obama district 2 margin of 28,438.

The total number of actual net lost Republican votes

between 2004 and 2012 in the five Metropolitan District

2 counties is not much larger – 12,632, almost three

times the Democratic loss of 4,406, which works out to

a Republican margin loss of 8,226, which is 28.92 per

cent of the 2012 Obama district 2 margin. Moreover,

between 2004 and 2012, Republicans carried only two of

these 11 counties – Washington County in 2004 only, and

21 The Maine Secretary of State website refers to these as “blank ballots”, but only has this number for 2012.

12

Piscataquis County in all three. The Romney margin in

Piscataquis was all of 381; the McCain margin was 355;

the Bush the Younger margin was 890. The 2004

Washington County Bush win was by a margin of 228. In

contrast, the Androscoggin (Lewiston-Auburn) margins

for Democrats in 2012, 2008 and 2004 were 6,757, 8,346,

and 5,984.

Why compare 2004 and 2012? Because 2004 represents the

all-time high Republican raw number in the United States

(62,039,572), and in Maine after 1984, where the President

Bush 2004 number of 330,201 is only 6.299 behind the all-

time high Republican raw number achieved by President Reagan

in 1984. As for 2012, it represents a Democratic comedown

from the all-time raw number high achieved in the 2008

United States (69,499,428), and in Maine, where the 2012

President Obama number of 401,306 is a come-down by 20,617

from the all-time Democratic high raw number, which is the

candidate Barack Obama 2008 number of 421,923 – both of

these Obama numbers are the first-ever Maine Presidential

raw vote numbers above 400,000. In contrast, Romney lost

2,997 votes from the McCain raw number, and achieved only

292,276, 37,925 behind the Bush 2004 raw number of 330,201.

Nationally, Barack Obama between 2008 and 2012 lost

3,582,171 raw votes, but because Mitt Romney added only a

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net 981,912, Obama won the national popular vote by

4,985,022, a comedown from the 2008 margin of 9,549,105.22

The Missing White Voter Theory Explained

Before diving deeper into actual Maine registration and

voting statistics, let’s discuss The Missing White Voter

Theory. The Missing White Voter Theory has been grasped by

Republicans to avoid facing the implications of what

actually happened in 2008 and 2012: back-to-back popular

vote and Electoral College majorities by a Democrat from a

national total vote that was 6.921 million larger than the

total vote in the 2004 reelection of President Bush the

Younger, and that flipped a net seven states and 115

electoral votes between 2004 and 2012. Moreover, the

Democratic President was reelected amid the worst Democratic

incumbent economic environment since Jimmy Carter in 1980,

the outgoing Woodrow Wilson administration in 1920, and the

second Grover Cleveland administration in 1896, with numbers

that caused two economic determinist modelers to predict

only 46 or 49 percent for Obama23, an economic determinist

22 Obama lost 33 electoral votes: 11 from Indiana, 15 from North Carolina, 1 from the Nebraska-2 U.S. House district, and 6 from Census net electoral vote losses in the double-Obama states.

23 The Professor Ray C. Fair Model in Fair, Predicting Presidential Elections (Stanford University Press, 2002), and available for 2004-2008-2012 at www.fairmodel.yale.edu, and the Professor Douglas Hibbs Bread and Peace Model, available at www.douglas-hibbs.com

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electoral vote modeler to predict Romney with 33024, Almanac

of American Politics founder Michael Barone to intone Romney 315

because of “fundamentals” -- and don’t forget Peggy Noonan

and her vibrating Northwest D.C. yard signs. Horror of

horrors, 2008 may have been a realigning election, and 2012

a confirming election . . . for the Democrats.

President Obama’s reelection triggered a rampage of

rage on the Republican right, but the one rational response

came from Almanac of American Politics 2014 co-author Sean Trende,

whose review of non-final Ohio returns two days after the

election started him on the road to a 2013 conclusion that

6.5 million eligible Caucasian voters skipped the election.

The Missing White Voter Theory is based on the contrast

between Census estimates of eligible Non-Hispanic White (NHW)

registration and turnout for 2008 and 2012 and the Census

estimate of the actual 2012 vote – based on the Census estimates

and using a 55 percent turnout rate for nonvoting eligibles.

Sean Trende did not distinguish between unregistered and

registered nonvoters; instead, he conflated and continues to

conflate the two categories.25

24 Two University of Colorado professors who shall remain nameless, and who looked only at state-level economic data and ignored electoral history and everything else. The predicted Romney 330 included Minnesota.

25 In contrast, The Emerging Republican Majority author Kevin Phillips in 1972 debunked the McGovern “youth vote” theory with a three-step sequential analysis of registration, turnout and percentage breakdown:

“Some 70 to 80 percent of the 18-24 year-olds will register. Of these, 70 to 80 per cent will actually vote. Thus, 49 per cent to

15

. Mr. Trende concluded that a national 6.5 million

eligible Caucasian voters did not vote in 2012, and

Republican opponents of immigration reform and minority

outreach26 seized upon The Theory as justification for

doubling down on the Republican obstructionism displayed in

the 2013 Fiscal Cliff and 2011 Debt Ceiling debacles, and

most recently on display in the Republican Government

Shutdown Temper Tantrum of Twenty-Thirteen.27 The Trende

series was (according to Trende) purposely vague on policy,

but appeared to urge Republican “libertarian populist”

appeals to downscale Caucasian voters turned off by the Bain

Capital persona and reality of Mitt Romney, although in this

author’s opinion, any actual proposals will amount to little

64 percent of those eligible will actually make it to the polls. Assume 60 percent (the national average) – or 15 million votes. Of these, McGovern will get 55 to 65 percent (8.25 to 9.75 million) and Richard Nixon will get 35-45 percent (5.25 to 6.75 million). By these calculations, then, the McGovern youth lead will range from 1.5 million to a very improbable 4.5 million”

which Phillips predicted (correctly) would be swamped by George Wallace voters and 1968 Humphrey voters switching to Nixon.

New York Times Magazine, August 6, 1972, “Why Nixon Will Win” (Kevin Phillips), pages 33-34.

26 Note that Sean Trende does not oppose either immigration reform or Republican minority outreach; see his June 21, 2013 and subsequent Real Clear Politics articles.

27 Which Sean Trende does not favor -- in multiple Tweets available at “Sean Trende Twitter”, Mr. Trende expressly states the government shutdown plan had “no upside” for the Republicans, but he also stated that he did not see it having a major negative electoral impact on Republicans in the House or Senate.

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more than faux-populist flapdoodle. The electoral role model

for The Missing White Voter Theory appears to be Minnesota

Governor Tim Pawlenty, who before becoming a financial

services lobbyist was twice elected Governor of Minnesota –

but with percentages of 44.37 and 46.69 in three-way

engagements where the Jesse Ventura Independence Party

achieved 16.18 and 6.43 percentage points -- but where the

Democrats were held to 36.46 and 45.73.

Now for some actual voting numbers. Between 2004 and

2012, the Republican national raw vote fell by a net

1,107,377, from an all-time high of 62,039,572 to the

second-ever Republican total in excess of 60 million –

60,932,235. Between 2008 and 2012, the national Republican

raw number rose by all of 981,912.28

Chart I: The National Popular Vote, 2004-2012

Total Vote Republican Democratic Other

Margin

2004 122,293,468 62,039,572 59,027,115

1,226,781 R 3,012,457

2008 131,463,122 59,950,323 69,499,428

2,013,371 D 9,549,105

28 From 62,039,572 to 59,950,323, per the David Leip U.S. Election Atlaswebsite accessed October 7, 2013. These numbers do not include the additional 6,435 votes from Kings County (Brooklyn), New York discoveredand amended into the New York official totals on August 22, 2013, but not yet posted on the David Leip U.S. Election Atlas website.

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2012 129,215,421 60,932,235 65,917,257

2,365,929 D 4,985,022

04-12: + 6,921,953 minus 1,107,337 + 6,890,142

+ 1,139,148 D + 7,997,479

08-12: minus 2,247,701 + 981,912 minus 3,582,171 +

352,558 D min. 4,564,083

In the nine swing states – two that Romney re-flipped

from 2008 and seven that he missed – the Republican raw vote

between 2004 and 2012 rose by a net 352,719. As displayed

in Chart II below, Republicans won back Indiana even with a

vote drop of 58,895 and a Democratic gain of 183,876,

because the Republican base from the Nixon-Bush era was

large enough that it held the Democratic 2008 margin to

28,391, and Democrats in 2012 crashed by 221,152. Same story

in North Carolina: Democratic increase more than double the

Republican increase, but a high enough Bush 2004 number to

hold the 2008 Democratic margin to 14,177. Different story

in New Mexico: Republicans won the state by only 5,988 in

2004, and subsequently lost 41,142 as Democrats gained

44,393. Even worse story in Iowa: Republicans won the state

by only 10,059, then lost 21,340 while Democrats gained

80,646. Horrible story in Ohio: Republicans won the state by

118,601, then lost 198,331 as Democrats gained 86,542. In

Florida, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, Republicans added a

collective 433,352, but Democrats added a whopping

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2,082,408. In Virginia, Democrats added 517,078, more than

five times the 105,563 added by the Republicans. Maine is

not on this list because the last time a Republican carried

the Pine Tree State for President was in 1988, when Vice

President Bush the Elder achieved 55.34%, making Maine state

26 of the 40 states he carried – but then came the Ross

Perot air raid of 1992, which cratered Republican suburban

percentages from coast to coast through and likely well

beyond 2012, and that in Maine, pushed President Bush the

Elder down to an embarrassing third place.

Chart II: Swing States 2004 – 2012

State, R 2004 R. 2004-2012 Dem. 2004-2012

2012 Result

N.C. 435,317 + 309,229 + 652,542

Repub. Margin 92,004

Ind. 510,427 Minus 58,895 +

183,876 Repub. 267,656

N.M 5,988 Minus 41,142 + 44,393

Dem.. 79,547

Nev. 21,500 + 44,877 +

134,183 Dem. 67,806

Colo. 99,531 + 83,987 +

321,376 Dem. 137,858

Va. 262,217 + 105,563 +

517,078 Dem. 149,298

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Fla. 380,978 + 198,925 + 654,212

Dem. 74,309

Ohio 118,601 Minus 198,331 + 86,542

Dem. 166,272

Iowa 10,059 Minus 21,340 + 80,646

Dem. 91,927

Republicans have to carry at least six of the nine swing

states to win the White House in 2016 or 2020. The

Republicans must hold Indiana and North Carolina, and flip

Florida (29 electoral votes) plus three states with another

35 electoral votes: Ohio 18, Virginia 13, and either Iowa

(6), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), or New Mexico (5).

Alternatively, Republicans must dislodge the equivalent from

the Blue Wall Kerry-Obama states29 that have 246 current

electoral votes; Republicans will talk about flipping New

Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Michigan

(16), New Jersey (14) and even Minnesota (10), even though

the last year in which any of these states gave a majority

to a non-incumbent Republican was 1988 New Hampshire,

Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey; 1960 Wisconsin, and

1952 Minnesota.

29 Ron Brownstein, National Journal, January 17, 2009, “Dems Find Electoral Safety Behind A Wall Of Blue.” The author adds to this 246 the 6 from Iowa and the 5 from New Mexico.

20

However, if Republicans flip Pennsylvania’s 20

electoral votes, New Hampshire’s four, and one from Maine-2,

the Democratic Blue Wall number drops by 25 from 257 to 232,

meaning Democrats need 38 more to win instead of 13 –

meaning Virginia’s 13 is not enough, but must be added to

Florida (29) or a combination netting 25 from Ohio (18) plus

Colorado (9) -- winning Nevada (6) won’t be enough, because

along with Ohio it would only add up to 24 electoral votes,

meaning Republicans tie the Electoral College 269-269 and

win the White House unless Democrats increase their number

of majority U.S. House delegations from 18 to 26.30

If the Maine-2 result is close and the count of the

other 537 electoral votes breaks Republican 268-Democratic

26931, look for a below-freezing recount environment in the

11 Maine U.S. House district 2 counties where the county

30 Or if Republican 2012 states start moving -- plus North Carolina (15), Georgia (16) or Arizona (11).31

? Republican 268:

All Romney 2012 states (206 electoral votes) plus Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), New Hampshire (4), and Colorado (9).

Democratic 269:

D.C. (3) plus Maine statewide (2), Maine-1 (1), Vermont (3), Rhode Island (4), Massachusetts (11), Connecticut (7), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), New Mexico (5), Nevada (6), California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (12), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20),Michigan (16), Iowa (6), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18) plus Virginia (13).

A Democratic win of Maine-2 gives the Democrat a winning 270; a Republican win of Maine-2 gives the Republican a 269-269 tie that send the election to the House (and the Vice Presidency to the Senate).

21

seats are Paris (Oxford), Farmington (Franklin), Skowhegan

(Somerset), Dover-Foxcroft (Piscataquis), Houlton

(Aroostook), Bangor (Penobscot), Auburn (Androscoggin),

Augusta (Kennebec), Belfast (Waldo), Ellsworth (Hancock),

and Machias (Washington). The above scenario presents a

great incentive for Democrats to work overtime in sunny

Florida to win its’ 29 electoral votes, which in 2012 went

Democratic by only 74,309 or 88 one hundredths of a

percentage point. However, if Maine-2 flips, it will not

flip because of The Missing White Voter Theory.

Maine Electoral History: Republican Bastion Through 1988, Democratic

Thereafter

Now for some Maine electoral history, including the

post-1968 use of a districted electoral vote plan. Maine

became a state in 1820; before 1820, it had voted as part of

Massachusetts and elected 7 U.S. House Members in districts

named “Massachusetts 1st Eastern” through “Massachusetts 7th

Eastern.” In the 1820’s, Maine elected five of the last

Federalists to serve in the U.S. House, including the very

last one, Samuel Butman of Maine-7, elected on September 7,

1827 to the 20th Congress, and in 1828 to the 21st Congress,

but as an Adamsite. Maine reached the peak of its’ U.S.

House strength in the 1830 Census, which gave Maine 8 House

Members and 10 electoral votes. In the 1960 Census, Maine

22

lost its’ 3rd Congressional District, and since 1962, Maine

has had two House Members and four electoral votes. Maine’s

Presidential electoral votes were Democratic-Republican,

Jacksonian, or Democratic between 1832 and 1852 except in

1840 (Whig), but when the Republican Party was created in

1854, the U.S. House delegation flipped from 3 Democrats and

3 Whigs to 5 Republicans and 1 Democrat, and starting in

1856, Maine went Republican for President in every election

through 1960 except for 1912, when Democrat Woodrow Wilson

eked out a three-way 2.02 percentage point win over Bull

Mooser Theodore Roosevelt. Except for 1912, the Republican

Presidential percentage never went below 50.99% (1916,

Hughes), 51.46% (1880, Garfield), and 51.10% (1940,

Willkie). Even hapless President Herbert Hoover in 1932 and

46-state loser Alf Landon in 1936 carried Maine by landslide

percentages of 55.83% and 55.49%. In the 162 Maine U.S.

House engagements between 1858 and 1930, Maine elected 153

Republicans, a one-term Democrat in 1862 Maine-1, a two-term

Greenbacker-Democrat in 1878-1880 Maine-4, a two-term

Greenbacker in 1878-1880 Maine-5, a one-term Democrat in

1910 Maine-3, and a three-term Democrat in 1910-1912-1914

Maine-2. In the 45 Maine U.S. House engagements between 1932

and 1960, Maine elected 38 Republicans and only 7 Democrats:

a two-term Democrat to Maine-2 in 1932-1934, a one-term

Democrat to Maine-3 in 1932, a one-term Democrat to Maine-1

in 1934, a two-term Democrat in 1956-1958 Maine 2, and a

23

one-term Democrat in 1958 Maine-1. The latter was 1936-1938-

1940 Republican Congressman James Oliver, who avenged his

1942 primary loss to Robert Hale sixteen years later by

running as a Democrat and defeating Congressman Hale. The

quintessential Republican politicians of the era were

Speaker Thomas Reed, who represented Maine-1 from 1876

through 1899 and as Speaker in 1881-1883 and 1889-1891,

broke the House version of the filibuster32; Abraham

Lincoln’s first Vice President, Senator Hannibal Hamlin;

Republican 1884 White House loser Senator James G. Blaine;

and Senator Margaret Chase Smith, who represented Maine-2 in

the U.S. House from 1940 through 1948 and served in the

Class II U.S. Senate seat from 1948 through 1972, where she

and other New England Republicans played a major role in

censuring Joe McCarthy. Today the last representatives of

this tradition are Republicans Class II U.S. Senator Susan

Collins and former Class I U.S. Senator Olympia Snowe.

No Democrat had been popularly elected to the U.S.

Senate from Maine until 195833, when 1954 Governor Edmund

Muskie defeated 1952 Class I first-termer Frederick Payne;

this election, along with the 1954, 1956 and 1958 Democratic

gubernatorial wins and the 1956 and 1958 Democratic wins of

2 of the 3 U.S. House seats, broke the Republican lock and

32 James G. Grant, Mr. Speaker! (Simon & Schuster, 2011)

33 There were two legislatively elected Democrats in 1910-1916. CQ Guide to U.S. Elections, pages 1246-1247.

24

brought sustained two-party competition to Maine for the

first time since the 1850’s. Although Henry Cabot Lodge

helped Richard Nixon carry Maine in 1960, President Lyndon

Johnson carried Maine in 1964, both Maine Legislature

chambers went Democratic in 1964 for the first time since

1912, an all-Democratic U.S. House delegation was elected in

1966, the Humphrey-Muskie ticket carried Maine by a

landslide in 196834, and Margaret Chase Smith was defeated

in 1972 by Democrat Bill Hathaway. Kevin Phillips in The

Emerging Republican Majority’s Map 47 wrote off Maine, New

England, New York and Michigan as hopelessly Democratic in

the unfolding Nixon Era.35

The Maine Districted Electoral Vote System

A Maine Democratic legislator’s interest in Electoral

College reform after the 1968 Nixon-Humphrey-Wallace

nailbiter led to the creation of Maine’s split electoral

vote system, the first one to be adopted since the one-off

Michigan experiment in 1892.36 Amidst national discussion of

34 Maine’s first Presidential vote for a national Democratic loser since1848 (Lewis Cass).

35 Kevin Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority, page 472.36

? The Democratic 1890 Michigan Legislature and Governor, in order to pull out all the stops for the restoration of Grover Cleveland in 1892, created a districted electoral vote system that in 1892 gave 5 of 14 electors to Cleveland even though Benjamin Harrison carried the state. After 1892, some states that used separate ballots for Presidential electors elected split elector delegations, such as California and

25

abolishing the Electoral College, something Senator Margaret

Chase Smith had proposed in 1962, in 1969 Maine Democratic

State House member Glenn Starbird introduced a bill to

allocate all four Maine electoral votes by elector

districts, the system last used by Michigan in 189237 and

Maryland between 1796 and 1832. However, in 1966 the

Republicans had re-flipped the Maine House, so in committee

the four-district plan was replaced by a Republican bill (by

Representative Raymond Rideout) that created the current

Maine system – two electoral votes to the statewide winner,

and one vote to the winner of each U.S. House district..

The Republican measure passed both chambers with bi-partisan

majorities but ones that were less than two-thirds.

Democratic Governor Kenneth Curtis refused to veto the bill,

simply allowing it to become law without his signature, and

stating in his message that he preferred a national

solution. Until Nebraska adopted the Maine system effective

with the 1992 election, there was little attention to the

unique Maine system38, even though in 1976, Democrat Jimmy

Kentucky in 1896, Maryland in 1904 and 1908, California in 1912, and West Virginia in 1916. 37 Michigan actually used the 12 U.S. House districts, and then nested six in each of two “super districts” to allocate the other two electoralvotes.38

? Professor James Melcher (University of Maine-Farmington), “Electing toReform Maine and the District Plan for Selecting Presidential Electors”,paper presented to the New England Political Science Association 2004 Annual Meeting (available at www.academia.edu) .

26

Carter came within 620 raw votes of winning Maine-2 despite

losing Maine-1 by a raw 3,421 and the state by 4,041 –

thanks to the Eugene McCarthy siphon that took 4,849 in

district 2, 6,025 in district 1, and 10,874 statewide. New

York Times columnist Anthony Lewis on November 7, 1976

authored an extensive piece about the pros and cons of the

Electoral College, and noted that Eugene McCarthy likely

cost Carter the electoral votes of Maine, Iowa, Oklahoma and

Oregon – but nowhere did Lewis mention the Maine anomaly or

how close it came to creating the first districted electoral

vote since 1892.39

Maine’s Two U.S. House Districts, 1962-2020

In the 1960 Census, Maine lost its’ District 3 far

northern seat40, which last went Democratic for the U.S.

House in 1932, and actually threw out a Democrat in a year

(1934) when the national Democratic U.S. House seat gain was

a net nine seats. The 1962 two-district plan was also used

in 1971 and 1982: Portland-centered District 1 consisted of

the full counties of York, Cumberland (Portland), Lincoln,

Knox, Sagadahoc, Waldo and Kennebec (Augusta-Waterville),

and the remaining nine counties were in district 2, whose

39 New York Times, November 7, 1976, “Again: Why Keep the Electoral College?” (Anthony Lewis). 40

? Aroostook, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Hancock and Washington counties, per Kenneth C. Martis, Historical Atlas of Congressional Districts, page 234.

27

largest population centers are Androscoggin (Lewiston) and

Penobscot (Bangor). In the 1991 redistricting, half of

Waldo County (Belfast) was moved from district 1 to district

2. In the 2001 redistricting, all of Waldo County was

placed in district 2 along with the heavily Democratic

Waterville portion of Kennebec County. In the 2011

redistricting, all of Waldo County remained in district 2,

but Waterville in Kennebec County was moved back to District

1 and a collection of small Kennebec County towns with a

Democratic lean were switched to District 241.

Map of Maine’s Two Congressional Districts

Blue – always in district 1: York, Cumberland, Lincoln,

Knox, Sagadahoc

Yellow – partially or wholly in district 2 starting in 1992:

Waldo, Kennebec

Red – always in district 2: Androscoggin, Aroostook,

Franklin, Penobscot, Oxford, Somerset, Piscataquis, Hancock,

Washington

Democrats Performed Anemically In Maine In 1972 – 1988, Except In 1976

41

? See Michael Barone, The Almanac of American Politics Maine write-ups in the 1972, 1974,1982, 1984, 1992, 1994, 2002, 2004, 2012 and 2014 editions.

28

Except for 1976, Democrats between 1972 and 1988

performed anemically in Maine, contrary to the Kevin

Phillips’ prediction, and both U.S. House districts produced

similar results, although the underlying national trends can

be seen by comparing the statewide and district percentages.

As can be seen, in 1976, the rural-themed Jimmy Carter

campaign overperformed in rural northern district 2 and

underperformed in Portlandia district 1, although the Eugene

McCarthy siphon was large enough everywhere to cost Carter

all four electoral votes. In 1980 and 1984, Republican

Ronald Reagan overperformed in district 2, but in 1988, Vice

President Bush underformed there, perhaps because a bit of

the Texas-Louisiana rural appeal of Democratic Veep

candidate Lloyd Bentsen carried north to Maine.

Chart III: Maine, 1960 – 2012

Total Pres. Vote Winner All-Vote %, Raw Margin

1960: 421,767 Rep. Nixon

57.05% 59,449

1964: 380,965 Dem. Pres. LBJ

68.84% 143,563

1968: 392,936 Dem. Humphrey

55.30% 48,058

Districted System Begins

29

1972: 417,271 Rep. Pres. Nixon

61.46% 95,874

Dist. 1: 220,466

61.39% 50,310

Dist. 2: 196,805

61.54% 45,564

1976: 483,208 Rep. Pres. Ford

48.91% 4,041

Dist. 1: 257,923

49.25% 3,421

Dist. 2: 225,045

48.57% 620

1980: 523,011 Rep. Reagan

45.61% 17,548

Dist. 1: 280,208

45.06% 8,661

Dist. 2: 242,212

46.34% 8,887

1984: 553,144 Rep.Pres.Reagan

60.83% 121,985

Dist. 1: 293,979

59.69% 58,022

30

Dist. 2: 259,165

62.13% 63,963

1988: 555,035 Rep. Bush Elder

55.34% 63,562

Dist. 1: 302,762

55.92% 38,214

Dist. 2: 252,273

54.64% 25,348

1992: 679,499 Dem. Bill Clinton

38.77% 56,600 (Perot 206,820, Bush 206,504)

Dist.1: 365,200

39.76% 29,494 (Perot 102,828, Bush 115,697)

Dist.2: 314,299

37.62% 14,237 (Perot 103,992, Bush 90,807)

1996: 605,897 Dem. Pres.

Clinton 51.62% 126,410 (Perot 85,970, Nader 15,279)

Dist. 1: 317,121

52.05% 64,202 (Perot 39,845, Nader 8,409)

Dist. 2: 288,776

51.16% 62,208 (Perot 46,125, Nader 6,870)

31

2000: 651,817 Dem. Al Gore

49.09% 33,335 (Nader 37,127)

Dist. 1: 348,951

50.52% 27,675 (Nader 20,297)

Dist. 2: 302,866

47.43% 5,660 (Nader 16,830)

2004: 740,752 Dem. John Kerry

53.57% 66,641 (Nader 8,069)

Dist. 1: 384,392

55.07% 45,879 (Nader 4,004)

Dist. 2: 356,360

51.95% 20,762 (Nader 4,065)

2008: 731,163 Dem. Barack Obama

57.71% 126,650 (Nader 10,636, Green 2,900)

Dist. 1: 383,608

60.52% 87,541 (Nader 5,263, Green 1,362)

Dist. 2: 347,531

54.61% 39,109 (Nader 5,373, Green 1,538)

2012: 713,18042

56.27% 109,030 (Green 8,119)

Dist. 1: 373,830

59.37% 79,379 (Green 3,508)43

42 Does not include 11,578 blank ballots.43

32

Dist. 2: 336,104

52.75% 28,438 (Green 3,801 + Kennebec 810)

1992: The Ross Perot Air Raid Craters The Republican Majority

The Ross Perot air raid of 1992 cratered the Nixon-

Reagan-Bush majority everywhere outside the Old Confederacy.

Maine as Ross Perot’s best state (at 30.44%) and Maine-2 as

the Number One Ross Perot U.S. House district in the entire

United States in both 1992 and 199644, exemplify the post-

1988 Republican crash and the 1992-2012 path of the Perot

vote, both metropolitan and rural, and can best be analyzed

by looking at the partisan raw vote streams between the

President Reagan 1984 landslide and all-time high Maine

Republican raw number to the President Obama reelection in

2012.

Chart IV: Maine Presidential Raw Numbers, 1984 – 2012

? District 1 and 2 Green numbers are approximations because for 2012 (unlike 2008 and 2004) the Maine Secretary of State website does not break down the Presidential vote by congressional district. District 1 number is York, Cumberland, Sagadahoc, Lincoln and Knox combined number,and does include Kennebec, much of which is in district 1. District 2 number is ten full District 2 counties plus separately stated Kennebec number.

44 Michael Barone, The Almanac of American Politics 2014, page 763.

33

Total Pres. V. Rep. Dem. Other

1984 Maine: 553,144 336,500 214,515

2,129

Dist. 1: 293,979 175,472

117,450 1,057

Dist. 2: 259,165 161,028

97,065 1,072

1988 Maine 555,035 307,131 243,569

4,335

Dist. 1: 302,762 169,292

131,078 2,392

Dist. 2: 252,273 137,839

112,491 1,943

1984-1988: TV + 1,891 R minus 29,369 D + 29,054

Other + 2,206

Dist. 1: TV + 8,783 R minus 6,180 D +

13,628 Other + 1,335

Dist. 2: TV minus 6,892 R minus 23,189 D + 15,426

Other + 871

34

1992 Maine: 679,499 206,504 263,420

Perot 206,820 + 2,755

Dist.1: 365,200 115,697 145,191

Perot 102,828 + 1,484

Dist.2: 314,299 90,807 118,229

Perot 103,992 + 1,271

1988-1992: TV + 124,464 R minus 100,627 D + 19,851

Perot 206,820

Dist. 1: TV + 59,438 R minus 53,595 D +

14,113 Perot 102,828

Dist.2: TV + 62,026 R minus 47,032 D +

5,738 Perot 103,992

1996 Maine: 605,897 186,378 312,788

Perot 85,970, Nader 15,279, Other 5,482

Dist. 1: 317,121 100,851 165,053

Perot 39,845, Nader 8,409, Other 2,963

Dist. 2: 288,776 85,527 147,735

Perot 46,125, Nader 6,870, Other 2,519

1992-1996: TV minus 73,602 R minus 20,126 D + 49,368

Perot minus 120,850

Dist.1: TV minus 48,079 R minus 14,846 D + 19,862

Perot minus 62,983

Dist.2: TV minus 25,523 R minus 5,280 D + 29,506

Perot minus 57,867

35

2000 Maine: 651,817 286,616 319,951

Nader 37,127, Other 8,123

Dist. 1: 348,951 148,618 176,293

Nader 20,297, Other 3,743

Dist. 2: 302,866 137,998 143,658

Nader 16,830, Other 4,380

1996-2000: TV + 45,920 R + 100,238 D + 7,163

Nader + 21,848, Other + 2,641

Dist.1: TV + 31,830 R + 47,767 D + 11,240

Nader + 11,888, Other + 780

Dist.2: TV + 14,090 R + 47,191 D minus 4,077

Nader + 9,960, Other + 1,861

2004 Maine: 740,752 330,201 396,842

Nader 8,069, Other 5,640

Dist. 1: 384,392 165,824 211,703

Nader 4,004, Other 2,861

Dist. 2: 356,360 164,377 185,139

Nader 4,065, Other 2,779

36

2000-2004: TV + 88,935 R + 43,585 D + 76,891

Nader minus 29,058, Other minus 2,483

Dist.1: TV + 35,441 R + 17,206 D + 35,410

Nader minus 16,293, Other minus 882

Dist.2: TV + 53,494 R + 26,379 D + 41,481

Nader minus 12,765, Other minus 1,601

2008 Maine: 731,163 295,273

421,923 Nader 10,636, Green 2,900, Other 431

Dist. 1: 383,608 144,604

232,145 Nader 5,263, Green 1,362, Other 234

Dist. 2: 347,531 150,669

189,778 Nader 5,373, Green 1,538, Other 173

2004-2008: TV minus 9,589 R minus 34,298 D + 25,081

Nader + 2,567

Dist.1: TV minus 784 R minus 21,220 D +

20,442 Nader + 1,259

Dist.2: TV minus 8,829 R minus 13,708 D + 4,639

Nader + 1,308

2012 Maine: 713,18045 292,276 401,306

Green 8,119, Other 11,479

Dist. 1: 373,830 142,573 221,952

Green 3,508, Other 5,797

45 Does not include 11,578 blank ballots.

37

Dist. 2: 336,104 148,845 177,283

Green 4,611, Other 5,365

2008-2012: TV minus 17,983 R minus 2,997 D minus 20,617

Green + 5,219

Dist.1: TV minus 9,778 R minus 2,031 D minus

10,193 Green + 2,146

Dist.2: TV minus 11,427 R minus 1,824 D minus 12,495

Green + 3,073

Maine: The Republican Three-Decade Lost Majority

As can be seen, between the President Reagan landslide

in 1984 and the President Obama reelection in 2012, the

total Presidential vote in Maine (statewide) rose by

160,036, from the 1988 number of 553,144 to the 2012 number

of 713,180, meaning 160,036 or 28.93 percent more voters

have joined the Maine electorate after the last incumbent

Republican Presidential elector win. The Democratic raw vote

rocketed from 214,515 in 1984 to 401,306 in 2012, a gain of

186,791 or 87.07 percent. In contrast, the Republican vote has

fallen by 44,224, from 336,500 in 1984 to 292,276 in 2012.

Thus, in 28-year period in which the Maine Presidential

total vote has grown by 160,036, the once-dominant

Republican Party vote has fallen by 44,224, whereas the

38

Democratic vote has grown by 186,791, a net Democratic

margin gain of 231,015.

What happened to the Republican vote? George Herbert

Walker Bush and Ross Perot, that’s who. It started in 1988,

when the Republican vote from Reagan to Bush the Elder fell

by 29,369 whereas the Democratic vote from Walter Mondale to

Tax-Hike Mike from Taxachusetts rose by 29,054 – not much

home-state appeal by The Man from Kennebunkport. Then came

the Great Recession of 1989-1992 and the Ross Perot Air Raid

of 1992, which simultaneously rocketed the statewide total

vote upward by 124,464 and crashed the Republican statewide

vote by 100,627 – but increased the Democratic vote by only

19,851; it also gave 206,920 to Ross Perot, enabling

Democrat Bill Clinton to win by 56,600. In 1996, the total

vote fell by 73,602, the Perot vote fell by 120,850, the

Republican vote fell by another 20,126, and the Democratic

vote rose by 49,368, enabling President Clinton to win by

126,410 with 51.62 percent, despite the first Ralph Nader

campaign taking 15,279 and assisted by the encore Ross Perot

campaign taking 85,970, making President Clinton the first

reelected Democratic President to win Maine since Andrew

Jackson in 1832.46

In 2000, President Clinton could not run again, Vice

President Gore took the Democratic baton, Ross Perot exited

46 Unless one considers President Johnson in 1964 to be the reelection of President Kennedy from 1960.

39

the stage, Ralph Nader ran the most effective of his four

campaigns, and the Democratic national popular vote

percentage fell by 85 one hundredths of a percentage point.

In Maine, the total vote rose by 45,920, Ralph Nader

increased his vote by 21,848, and for the first time since

1984, the Republican vote rose47 – and by a whopping

100,238. The Democratic vote rose by only 7,163, but Vice

President Gore prevailed by 33,335 with 49.09 percent,

because post-1984, the Republican vote was still down by

49,984, whereas the Democratic vote was up by more than

double the GOP number – 105,436. Thus, from the Bush

collapse to the end of the Perot air raid, Republicans had

recovered only 49,984, whereas Democrats gained 105,436.

Republicans in 2000-2004 led by Ken Mehlman and Karl

Rove, and Democrats led by the Kerry campaign and Howard

Dean, increased the national total vote by 16.876 million.

In Maine, the total vote rose by 88,935, but only 43,585

went to the Republicans, whereas the Democrats added 76,891,

in part from the Nader vote falling by 29,058, but with the

Kerry campaign responsible for that plus the remaining

47,833, 4,248 more than the Bush campaign added.

The Republican vote post-1984 peaked in 2004 at 330,201

-- in percentage terms, this penciled out to a landslide

loss 44.58 percent. In 2008, the Republican vote fell by

34,298, and in 2012, fell by another 2,997. In contrast,

47 The 1980 Reagan vote in Maine statewide was 238,522; the 1984 President Reagan vote was 336,500.

40

the Democratic vote rose by 25,081 in 2008, and fell by

20,617 in 2012, meaning that because candidate Obama won

Maine by 126,650 in 2008, the loss of 20,617 and the Romney-

driven loss of 2,997 meant President Obama would still win

by 109,030.

District 1 in Portland: Super-Landslide Democratic Margins Drive The

Democratic Statewide Margins

District 1 Democratic super-landslides drive the Maine

statewide margin and guarantee 3 of the 4 electoral votes.

In 1984 and 1988, Republicans Reagan and Bush the Elder

carried every county in Maine, even ancestrally Democratic

Androscoggin (Lewiston) that George McGovern in 1972 carried

by 103 votes. Four years after 1988, in Portlandia district

1, the 1992 Ross Perot air raid drove President Bush down to

34.09 percent in his vacation home county of York

(Kennebunkport) and to 31.68 percent district-wide, meaning

Democrat Bill Clinton won district 1 by 29,494, 52.10

percent of his statewide margin of 56,600. In the six

Presidential elections between 1992 and 2012, Democrats have

carried each one of the five wholly district 1 counties, and

have generated district 1 margins that are always at least

50 percent of the statewide margin.

Chart V: Maine Democratic Margins, 1992 – 2012

41

Statewide District 1 1% S

District 2

1992: 29,494 56,600 52.10

27,106

1996: 126,410 64,202 50.78

62,208

2000: 33,335 27,675 83.29%

5,660

2004: 66,641 45,879 68.84%

20,762

2008: 126,650 87,541 69.12%

39,109

2012: 109,030 79,379 72.80%

28,438

Maine’s 16 Counties

Neither Maine statewide nor the Maine Second U.S. House

District have a sufficiently large pool of rural “missing

white voters” to flip Maine-2, much less the state, even

though according to the 2012 exit polls in 31 states, the

Maine electorate Caucasian percentage was 96 percent. Of the

16 Maine counties, six can fairly be described as rural ones

in district 2 – potato-farming Aroostook, blueberry capital

42

Washington48, the Republican reboubt of Piscataquis49, and

forested Somerset, Franklin and Oxford. Although the 2010

Census Caucasian percentages in these counties are between

90.9 in Washington50 and 96.4 in Franklin, only two of these

six counties went for a Republican Presidential candidate in

2004, 2008 or 2012 – Piscataquis in all three elections, and

Washington in 2004. As indicated in Chart X at the end of

this article, in 2012, President Obama won these combined

six counties by 67,642 to 57,441, a two-party margin of

10,201, and in 2004, John Kerry won them 72,007 to 66,009, a

two-party margin of 5,998. In other words, in the six counties where The

Missing White Voter Diagonal supposedly begins, Democrats gained 4,203 in

margin between 2004 and 2012. As for any “missing” white voters,

as displayed in the registered voter turnout data in Chart

IX at the end of this article, the registered nonvoter

number for 2004 is 62,713, and in 2012 it is 62,927 – an

increase of two hundred and fourteen, seven one thousandths

of one percent of the 2012 Obama margin.

As for the other five metropolitan counties in district

2 – whole counties Hancock, Waldo, Penobscot and

Androscoggin, and partial county Kennebec:

48 Michael Barone, The Almanac of American Politics 2014, page 763 (noting Washington County produces more than 90 percent of America’s wild blueberry crop).

49 Between 1856 and 2012, Democratic only in 1964, 1968 and 1996. 50 Washington is 4.7% Native American.

43

Hancock’s largest total vote town is the well-

known Greater Boston vacation spot of Bar Harbor,

meaning the 2012 Obama percentage of 71.07%

generated a margin of 1,363 that drove a county

margin of 5,245;

Waldo is part of the Down East coast upward from

Portland, and its’ largest town (Belfast City)

gave Obama a margin of 1,034 that drove a county

margin of 2,238;

Penobscot includes Bangor and the University of

Maine at Orono, and the margins from Bangor

(2,993) and Orono (2,365) drove a county margin

of 2,264;

Ancestrally Democratic Androscoggin includes

Auburn and Lewiston, and the Obama margins of

2,041 and 3,828 drove a county margin of 6,757;

Kennebec includes the state capital of Augusta

and heavily Democratic Waterville, and even

though these areas are not in 2012-2020 district

2, only two of the 29 towns in the county gave

Romney margins – Albion by 132 and Sidney by 14.

The last time any of these counties gave a margin to a

Republican was in 1988. It cannot be seriously argued that

there is a pool of “missing white Republican voters” in

these counties. The registered nonvoter number in 2004 was

44

102,901, and in 2012, it was 112,803 – an increase of 9,902,

less than one third of the 2012 Obama district 2 margin. If

one alternatively posits a 2016 surge of the 2012 registered

nonvoter number, in district 2 the rural-urban combined

number is 10,116, only 35.57 percent of the 2012 Obama

margin in district 2.

Maine 2004-2012: In District 2, Republicans Have Lost Twice As May Actual

Votes As Democrats

The Republicans have lost 15,532 votes in Maine-2

between 2004 and 2012, whereas Democrats have lost 7,856,

50.57 percent of the Republican number. In contrast, in 2004

the Bush campaign led by Ken Mehlman added 26,379 to the

candidate Bush district 2 number of 137,998, but in the next

eight years, McCain lost 13,708 in 2008, and in 2012, Romney

lost another 1,824. Democrats came out of 2000 ahead by only

5,660, but in 2004 moved up by thrice to 20,762; both

represent the first wins of Maine-2 by national Democratic

losers – 2000 in the Electoral College, 2004 in the college

and in the national popular vote. In 2008, Barack Obama

added 4,639 to create a margin of 39,109 -- the highest

post-1968 Democratic raw margin in district 2 -- meaning

that in 2012, President Obama could lose 12,495 and still

come out ahead by 28,438 and 8.46 percentage points

(national plus 4.61).

45

When the Maine polls closed on Election Night 2012 at

2000 hours Eastern Standard Time, the Pine Tree State

portion of the Blue Wall portion of the Electoral College

outcome was all over but the counting – as long as

Pennsylvania, Iowa and New Mexico held firm, the Blue Wall

257 was in place, meaning Democrats could close the sale in

Virginia (13), or Ohio (18), or Florida (29), or Colorado-

Nevada (9 plus 6). When Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack

Obama won Maine in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012, they made

history by achieving the first three, four, five and six

straight Democratic Presidential wins in Maine since the

1844-1852 string of James K. Polk, Lewis Cass and Franklin

Pierce. When the 2016 Democratic nominee wins Maine for the

seventh time in a row, she or he will make Democratic

history, but not partisan history, since Republicans won

Maine eleven straight times between 1920 and 1960, and

fourteen straight times between 1856 and 1908.

The Missing White Voter Theory says Rural Maine stayed

home. In his initial November 8, 2012, article, Mr. Trende

argued that Republican Ohio turnout rose in the white-collar

suburbia around Columbus and Cincinnati, but fell in blue-

collar or rural Ohio because these voters were turned off by

both President Obama and Mitt “47 percent” Romney. Trende

stated as follows on November 8, 2012:

We can see that the counties clustered around Columbus in the center of the state turned out in full force, as did the suburban

46

counties near Cincinnati in the southwest. These heavily Republican counties are the growing areas of the state, filled with white-collar workers.

Where things drop off are in the rural portions of Ohio, especially in the southeast. These represent areas still hard-hit by the recession. Unemployment is high there, and the area has seen almost no growth in recent years.

My sense is these voters were unhappy with Obama. But his negativead campaign relentlessly emphasizing Romney’s wealth and tenure atBain Capital may have turned them off to the Republican nominee aswell. The Romney campaign exacerbated this through the challenger’s failure to articulate a clear, positive agenda to address these voters’ fears, and self-inflicted wounds like the “47 percent” gaffe. Given a choice between two unpalatable options, these voters simply stayed home.

While these comments misstate the actual Ohio results that

would not be certified for another 28 days, they might apply

to rural Maine and U.S. House district 2, because according

to Trende:

The drop in turnout occurs in a rough diagonal, stretching from northern Maine, across upstate New York (perhaps surprisingly, turnout in post-Sandy New York City dropped off relatively little), and down into New Mexico. Michigan and the non-swing state, non-Mormon Mountain West also stand out. Note also that turnout is surprisingly stable in the Deep South; Romney’s problemwas not with the Republican base or evangelicals (who constituted a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2004).51

Trouble is, all of these areas have been trending Democratic

for decades, and last went Republican in 1988. The only

Maine counties carried by a Republican Presidential

candidate in 2004-2012 were lightly populated Piscataquis in

all three elections and lightly populated coastal Washington

County (Machias-Lubec-Eastport) only in 2004. 51 Sean Trende June 21, 2013 article in Real Clear Politics.

47

The Missing White Voter Theory Is Missing Actual Registrations and Actual

Voters

The Missing White Voter Theory has no actual voters.

Even though the final certified Ohio 2012 returns turned out

to be at variance with his November 8, 2012 article, Mr.

Trende in a subsequent four-part Real Clear Politics series52,

expanded his argument nationwide, arguing that “[t]he most

salient demographic change from 2008 to 2012 was the drop in

white voters” and claiming that a national 6.5 million

Caucasian eligible voters stayed home in 2012. Mr. Trende

stated in his 2013 articles that even if the missing 6.5

million broke 70-30 for Romney, by itself this group it

would not have won the 2012 election for the Republicans,

but in 2016 and in future elections Republican appeals that

turn them out, combined with reduced African-American

turnout, would carry the day for the GOP – because according

to Trende, it is fine that the Nineteenth Century anti-52 Real Clear Politics, June 21, 2013, “The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited”; June 25, 2013, “Does GOP Have to Pass Immigration Reform”; June 28, 2013, “The GOP and Hispanics: What the Future Holds”; July 2, 2013, “Demographics and the GOP, Part IV.” The July 2 article is a replyto critics Karl Rove, Jonathan Chait, and the concerned multitudes who expressed concern that GOP emphasis on running up Caucasian percentages would lead to unhealthy racial polarization.

48

slavery party has become the Twenty-first Century equivalent

of the 1868 Democratic “White Man’s Party”53 since “from a

purely electoral perspective, that’s not a terrible thing to

be.”54 By author Kamp’s calculations, since the Obama 2012

national popular vote margin was 4,985,022, if Romney won 90

percent of the “missing” 6.500 million, he would have won

the rounded national popular vote by 345,000 -- 66.782

million versus 66.437 million55, or a two-party vote

percentage of 50.13 percent.

With respect to the outcome-determinative Electoral

College, Mr. Trende (whose initial November 8, 2012 article

was premised on Ohio) never posted in the text of any

article actual raw numbers of registered nonvoting “missing white

voters” in any state, although he does include charts based

on estimated national vote ethnic percentages (but not showing

any state breakdowns) showing Republicans using a “racial

53 Statement of the 1868 Democratic nominee, New York Governor Horatio Seymour, quoted by Ed Kilgore, “Doubling Down on the White Man’s Party”,June 26, 2013, The Washington Monthly Political Animal blog, www.washingtonmonthly.com54 Trende stated as follows in his June 25, 2013 article: “Democrats liked to mock the GOP as the “Party of White People” after the 2012 elections. But from a purely electoral perspective, that’s not a terrible thing to be.”

55 Assuming the added 6.500 million divides 2 percent for “others” (130,000), 8 percent for Obama (plus 520,000 on top of actual 65,917,257 = 66,437,257) and 90 percent for Romney (plus 5.850 million on top of actual 60,932,235 = 66,782,235). Actual vote figures from theDavid Leip U.S. Election Atlas website, www.uselectionatlas.org, accessed September 15, 2013.

49

polarization scenario” and a Caucasian 63% Republican

percentage winning between 296 and 329 electoral votes in

every election through 2036, and an exact 270 in 2040; in

his fourth article, Trende stated that the GOP Caucasian

percentage is “capped” at 70 percent.56

The numbers used in The Missing White Voter Theory do

not represent actual registered voters or voting voters in

any state. Rather, as Trende expressly states, he is using

only Census estimates of 2008 and 2012 turnout to which Trende adds

2008 exit poll ethnic percentages57:

Using the most commonly accepted exit-poll numbers about the 2008 electorate*, we can roughly calculate the number of voters of eachracial group who cast ballots that year. Using census estimates, we can also conclude that all of these categories should have increased naturally from 2008 to 2012, due to population growth.

From mid-2008 to mid-2012, the census estimates that the number ofwhites of voting age increased by 3 million. If we assume that these “new” voters would vote at a 55 percent rate, we calculate that the total number of white votes cast should have increased byabout 1.6 million between 2008 and 2012.

***

Now, the raw exit-poll data haven’t come out yet, so we can’t calculate the 2012 data to tenths: The white vote for 2012 could

56 Trende stated on July 2, 2013: “Whatever the cause, the trend is real, and it’s not just due to Obama (in fact, the [Alan Abramowitz TimeFor A Change] model predicts the white vote in 2012 within two points). Now, the Democrats clearly have some sort of floor with whites -- it’s why I cap the Republican share of the white vote at 70 percent even in the “polarization” scenario. I just don’t think we’re at that floor yet.”

57 In 2012, exit polls were conducted in only 31 states. The quoted language comes from the Trende June 21, 2013 article under Point 1.

50

have been anywhere between 71.5 percent of the vote or 72.4 percent (with 26,000 respondents, analysis to tenths is very meaningful). So the final answer is that there were 6.1 million fewer white voters in 2012 than we’d have expected, give or take amillion.**

The Current Population Survey data roughly confirm this. As I noted earlier, if you correct the CPS data to account for over-response bias, it shows there were likely 5 million fewer whites in 2012 than in 2008. When you account for expected growth, we’d find 6.5 million fewer whites than a population projection would anticipate.

The Census Current Population Survey Is Not The Best Evidence -- It

Overstated the 2012 National Popular Vote by 3.7 Million, and Understated

Maine Actual Registration and Voting in 2004, 2008, and 2012

The Census Survey used for the Missing White Voter

Theory produces numbers too far from the actual results to

be useful. The Trende series inspired a cacophony of calumny

(and some informed commentary), but one salient point never

emerged: the Census survey data is not the equivalent of

state or county-level numbers of actual 2012 registered voters who

“stayed home” rather than voting for Romney. These numbers

cannot be found in the Census data, because the Census

states that its’ eligibility, registration and voting

numbers are derived from self-reporting by a sample of

roughly 50,000 respondents to the Current Population Survey

(CPS) as to their citizen 18-plus status, voter

registration58, and whether they voted. This is a

commendably large sample, but in 2012 it overstated the 58 Not required in the Nineteenth Century, but now a requirement in every state except North Dakota.

51

national total vote as 132.948 million, when the actual

total vote for President was 129,215,421.

In Maine statewide59, the CPS for 2012 reports 1.020

million citizen-eligible, 787 thousand registered, and 700

thousand voting. The Census CPS Voting Age population

number is not listed on the Maine Secretary of State

website, which has voter registration and turnout data back

to 1994 and county-level election returns back to 1990.

The Census citizen-eligible number is only a secondary

source to determine the potential for expanding the

electorate. Instead, one assigned to develop a 2016

Republican strategy for flipping Maine-2 or Maine statewide

would first go to the state-level and county-level registered

voter and actual voting numbers, augmented by voter file data as

to the number of and type of elections in which each

registered voter has participated (“flags” in the typical

precinct walk sheet or its’ Smartphone equivalent).

Registered voters need only be persuaded and turned out,

whereas the unregistered first need a registration drive.

The Census estimates for Maine registered voters and

actual voting for 2004, 2008 and 2012 differ substantially

from the actual registration and voting statistics on the

Maine Secretary of State website60: 59

? The CPS does not break down data below the state level.

60 The registration statistics add the separately listed active and inactive registrant numbers. The voting statistics are the total votes cast for any office.

52

For 2004, the Census estimates a rounded 824

thousand registered and 736 thousand voting, but

the actual numbers are 1,023,956 registered and

803,465 voting for any office;

For 2008, the Census estimates 801 thousand

registered and 716 thousand voting, but the actual

numbers are 1,057,595 registered and 744,542

voting for any office;

And for 2012, the Census estimates 716 thousand

registered and 700 thousand voting, but the actual

numbers are 1,025,444 total registered and 724,758

voting for any office.

Every state except no-registration North Dakota reports per-

election voter registration on its’ election officer

website, and every state reports the total vote; Maine on

its’ Secretary of State website charts registration back to

1994, and has election results back to 1990. The David

Leip U.S. Election Atlas website in a single screen charts

Maine state-level total vote and Presidential partisan

numbers all the way back to 1856, with county-level numbers

back to 1912, and has per-election screen state-level data

back to 1824; it also has U.S. Senate state-level and

county-level returns for most elections back to 1960 (alas,

but not the historic 1958 Muskie landslide), and state- and

53

county-level gubernatorial returns back to 1990.

Congressional election returns scholar Michael Dubin has

published county-level Presidential returns for Maine for

the period from 1828 through 1860, and congressional

district returns for 1820, 1824 and 1828.61 The David Leip

U.S. Election Atlas website has the congressional district

Presidential vote breakdown all the way back to the first

use of the Maine System in 1972. These sources provide actual

registration and voting data, not estimates, and should be looked to first in the

search for the actual 6.5 million missing white voters.

The Census Estimate of the Citizen-Eligible Voters In Maine Is Less Than

The Actual 2012 Registration Number

If the unregistered are the target group, the Census

citizen-eligible estimate for 2012 Maine is less than the

actual 2012 registration number. The only reason to look at

the Census estimates: they provide the only statistics

available for the citizen-eligible population and

ethnic/gender breakdowns of the CPS respondents.62 The

61 United States Presidential Elections 1788-1860: The Official Results (McFarland and Company, 2002). County-level results from 1836 through 1892 are collected by Walter Dean Burnham in Presidential Ballots, 1836-1892; from 1896-1944 by Edgar Eugene Robinson in The Presidential Vote 1896-1932, and They Voted for Roosevelt. The Richard Scammon America At the Polls books have county-level Pennsylvania returns back to 1920.62 ? Another source for ethnic/racial breakdowns is the American National Election Study (ANES), as analyzed by Alan Abramowitz and Ruy Teixera onJuly 30, 2013, “The Missing White Voters: Round Two of the Debate.”

54

citizen-eligible population includes unregistered eligibles,

registered nonvoters, and registered actual voters. The

Census “citizen-eligible” survey response estimate for 2012 Maine

is 1.020 million, and it actually underperforms the actual

2012 registered number of 1,025,444. This is yet another

example of why the CPS estimate is useless for calculating

actual turnout or potential turnout in any state.

Another Census Estimate Element of the Missing White Voter Theory Adds

Only 24,000 New Voters, Less Than The Obama 2012 and 2008 Margins In

District 2

Another estimate relied upon by The Missing White Voter

Theory is the gap between Census Non-Hispanic White (NHW)

estimated registered versus the estimated NHW voting, but in

Maine this gap at 84,000 underperforms both the Obama 2012

and 2008 statewide margins. The Missing White Voter Theory

is premised on a 2008-2012 growth in the national eligible

NHW population offset against a national decline in NHW

registration and voting. Although the CPS has state-level

estimates, the Missing White Voter Theory articles do not

mention any of them. Here are the CPS estimates for Maine:

Chart VI: Maine Census Estimates of Eligible,

Registered and Voting NHW Voters

55

2004 2008 2012

4-12 8-12

Eligible 982 T 959 T

981 T minus 1 T + 22 T

Registered 803 T 770 T

762 T minus 41 T min. 8 T

Voting 717 T 691 T

678 T minus 39 T min. 13 T

As displayed:

estimated NHW eligibles in Maine fell by 1,000 between 2004

and 2012, but increased by 22,000 after 2008;;

estimated registered NHW fell by 33,000 between 2004 and

2008, and fell by another 8,000 after 2008;

and estimated voting NHW fell by 26,000 between 2004 and

2008, and then fell by another 13,000 after 2008.

These estimates are worthless in the context of the actual

numbers, but they “show” that in Maine, estimated NHW

registration fell by 41,000 between 2004 and 2012 – if these

“missing voters” are not registered, they cannot vote

(though under Maine law, if they actually exist they can

register on Election Day), and NHW voting also fell by the

nearly identical number of 39,000. These estimates show that

in Maine, any decline in NHW voting between 2004 and 2012

was accompanied by a decline in NHW registration, likely

56

because the voters moved south to Florida, west to Arizona,

or up to that great focus group in the sky. Moreover,

Republicans could find the 41,000 “missing registrations”,

register them on Election Day, and win 100 percent of them,

but would still fall short of both the Obama 2012 and 2008

statewide margins. If all of the 41,000 were in district 2,

at the 55 percent turnout rate used by Trende in his

articles63, only 22,550 new voters would be added, meaning

that the 2016 Republican could win 100 percent of them and

the Obama 2012 district 2 margin would still be ahead by

5,888. To top the 2012 Obama district 2 margin of 28,438,

Republicans would need to turn out 70 percent (28,700) and

win all but 262 of the turnout; at a highly improbable 100

percent turnout, the voting would have to break Republican

85 percent for the Republican to win by a raw 1,492.64

Actual Voter Registration and Voting In Maine

To find out if enough “missing white voters” actually

exist in Maine, the best sources are the state-level and

county-level registration, total vote, and partisan vote

changes between 2004 and 2012. The party registration 63 In his June 21, 2013 article, Trende stated under point 1: “If we assume that these “new” voters would vote at a 55 percent rate . . .”

64 This calculation assumes that the 41,000 break Republican 85 percent (R plus 34,850), offset by a Democratic 12 percent (4,920) with 3 percent to Others (1,230), resulting in a Republican net gain of 29,930,1,492 ahead of the 2012 Obama district 2 margin of 28,438.

57

statistics from the 16 counties provide additional

illumination not available in Ohio or Virginia, but like

Pennsylvania (and unlike New Hampshire), in Maine

“unenrolled” registrants cannot vote in either the

Democratic, Republican or Green Independent primaries or

caucuses. Despite this statutory disenfranchisement of

Unenrolled voters, in 2012 Maine (unlike 2012 Pennsylvania)

Unenrolled is ahead: – on the active voter list, 361,797

versus Democratic 314,993, Republican 269,589, Green

Independent 37,764 and Americans Elect 7765; on the inactive

list, it is Unenrolled 18,778, Democratic 11,869, Republican

8,549, Green Independent 2,028, meaning President Obama’s

victory came in part from undeclared registrants.

Registration in Maine by mail closes 21 days before Election

Day, but one can register in person through and including

Election Day (at the town or city clerk’s office66). Maine

is one of two states that permits incarcerated felons to

vote (by mail using their pre-jail address). Maine has no-

excuses absentee or mail ballot voting, as expressly stated

in the “Voter Rights” section of the Maine Secretary of

65 Post-2012, Americans Elect is no longer a recognized political party in Maine.66

? The accidental Republican Maine Legislature and gubernatorial embarrassment Paul LePage elected in 2010 repealed Election Day registration, but a referendum overturning this legislation stayed the effect of this law, and in November 2012, it was overturned. The vote was 237,024 for repeal (i.e., to reinstate Election Day registration) to155,156 with 3,627 blank ballots. See Maine Secretary of State website, www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/prior 10-11.htm

58

State website, which also expressly states that ID is not

required to vote (although proof of identity and residence

must be presented at registration).

Actual Maine Registration Data Show That Registration Rose And Voting

Fell Between 2004 and 2012

Between 2004 and 2012, Maine total registration rose by

1,488, but actual voting fell – down 15,994 for any office,

and down 27,572 for President.67 Between 2004 and 2008,

67

? The reason for the vote decline gap between “any office” and Presidentis that the 2012 “any office” number includes 11,578 blank ballots for President.

Registration change per the Maine Secretary of State website:

2004: 1,023,9562008: 1,057,595 (up 33,639)2012: 1,025,444 (down 32,151)

Total vote for any office change per the Maine Secretary of State website:

2004: 740,752 (Presidential vote; no report for “any office” vote2008: 744,542 (up 3,790)2012: 724,758 (includes 11,578 blank ballots) (down 19,784)

Total Presidential vote change from the David Leip U.S. Election Atlas website:

2004 – 740,7522008 – 731,163 (down 9,589)2012 – 713,180 (down 17,983)

Registered nonvoter for any office change:

2004: 283,204 2008: 313,053 (up 29,849)

59

registration went up by 33,639, but between 2008 and 2012,

registration dropped by 32,151. In other words, 32,151 of

the supposedly “missing white voters” actually fell off the

registration rolls between 2008 and 2012, likely because

they moved south to Florida, west to Arizona, or up to that

great focus group in the sky – and meaning they could not

have voted in 2012 Maine under any circumstances.

The partisan voter registration statistics show the

following movements between 2004 and 2012:

Chart VII: Maine Partisan Voter Registration, 2004 – 2012

2004 2008 2012 Change

04-12 08-12

Total Reg.: 1,023,956 1,057,595 1,025,444

+ 1,488 min.32,151

Dem. Reg.: 319,198 343,768 326,862

+ 7,664 min. 16,906

Rep. Reg.: 287,452 280,885 278,138

minus 9,314 min. 2,747

Unenrl. Reg: 393,151 398,971 380,575

minus 12,576 min. 18,396

2012: 300,686 (down 12,367)

Registered nonvoter for President change:

2004: 178,1232008: 247,288 (up 69,165)2012: 194,985 (down 52,303)

60

Green Reg.: 24,155 33,971 39,792

+ 15,637 + 5,821

Am. Elect: n/a n/a

77 + 77 + 77

As can be seen, between 2004 and 2012, the Maine Republican

Party that ran the Pine Tree State for much of 1860 through

1960 lost 9,314 registered voters, and Unenrolled lost

12,576, whereas Democrats gained 7,664, Green Independent

gained 15,637 and Americans Elect 77 as registration

increased by 1,488.

In the six rural District 2 counties68, registration

fell 8,833, with Republicans gaining 119 in Oxford and 302

in Somerset, but losing 1,806 in the other four counties.

The Green Independents gained 3,063 and Americans Elect 23;

Democrats lost 5,516, and Unenrolled lost 5,148. Still, in

this six-county grouping, Democrats outnumber Republicans,

58,105 to 56,886, but Unenrolled leads both with 72,774, the

Greens have 6,990, and Americans Elect 23.

In the five metropolitan District 2 counties69,

registration went up 3,397 in Penobscot, but fell a

collective 3,848 in the other four counties. Republicans

gained 774 in Penobscot, 513 in Androscoggin, but lost 1,89768 Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Piscataquis, Somerset and Washington.69

? Whole counties Androscoggin (Lewiston-Auburn), Penobscot (Bangor), Hancock (Bar Harbor), Waldo (Belfast) and split count Kennebec (Augusta-Waterville, both of which are now in district 1).

61

in the other three counties. Democrats gained 968 in

Hancock and 151 in Waldo, but lost 2,361 in ancestrally

Democratic Androscoggin, 222 in Penobscot and 1,101 in

Kennebec. Unenrolled gained 1,077 in Penobscot, but lost

4,353 in the other four counties. The Greens gained a

collective 6,331 and Americans Elect 20 from all five

counties. Democrats lead Republicans, 111,985 to 100,979,

thanks to a big lead in ancestrally Democratic Androscoggin

(26,315 to 18,150), but Unenrolled tops all at 135,134, with

Greens at 15,074 and Americans Elect 20.

In the five District 1 Portlandia counties70,

registration was up 13,449 in combined Cumberland, York and

Sagadahoc, offset by a decline of 2,677 in combined Knox and

Lincoln. Republicans fell a collective 7,319 in all five

counties; Democrats gained 15,745 from all five counties.

Unenrolled fell 4,072 in all five counties; the Greens

gained 6,384 and Americans Elect 34. Democrats lead

Republicans, 156,772 to 120,273, but Unenrolled tops all at

172,667, with Greens at 18,079 and Americans Elect at 34.

Thus, registration is falling in rural District 2 and

holding barely even in metropolitan District 2, but is

rising briskly in Portlandia District 1, as new Maine-iacs

maniacally register and vote (mostly Democratic). The only

party gaining in all 16 Maine counties is the Green

Independent party. The Maine Missing White Voters were

70 York (Kennebunkport), Cumberland (Portland), Knox, Lincoln and Sagadahoc.

62

missing in 2004 and fell off the registration rolls after

2008.

Maine Voting 2004 To 2012: Total Vote Down, Republicans Down,

Democrats Up

Between 2004 and 2012, the Maine statewide total vote

for any office fell by 15,994, the total vote for President

fell by 27,572 -- and the statewide Republican vote for

President fell by 37,925 whereas the Democratic vote for

President rose by 4,464. Simply comparing 2004 and 2012

District 2 on the David Leip U.S. Election Atlas website

shows the Republican vote fell by 15,532 and the Democratic

vote fell by 7,856. There was a redistricting change in 2012

that added approximately 2,500 Republican registrants to

district 2.

In the six Rural Maine district 2 counties, the total

vote for any office fell by 9,047 – down 3,217 in

Aroostook, 1,877 in Somerset, 1,472 in Oxford, 1,201 in

Washington, 834 in Piscataquis, and 446 in Franklin. In the

five metropolitan District 2 counties, the total vote for

any office fell by 10,353 – down 2,176 in split Kennebec,

and in the full counties, down 3,332 in Penobscot, 2,004 in

Androscoggin, 1,859 in Hancock, and 982 in Waldo. In the

five District 1 Portlandia full counties, the total vote

rose by 339 – up 2,567 in Cumberland, up 189 in Sagadahoc,

63

down 550 in York, down 726 in Knox, and down 1,141 in

Lincoln.

On the partisan vote for President front, Republicans

underperformed Democrats between 2004 and 2012 in all sixteen

counties ,beginning in the six Rural Maine district 2

counties, where the Republican vote fell 8,568 from declines

in all six counties – 2,368 in Aroostook, 2,120 in Oxford,

1,153 in Somerset, 1,069 in Washington, 1,009 in Franklin,

and 769 in Piscataquis. The Democratic vote fell a combined

4,365 -- 1,792 in Aroostook, 1,339 in Somerset, 588 in

Washington, 288 in Oxford, 260 in Piscataquis, and 98 in

Franklin. Both parties have lost votes in these six

counties between 2004 and 2012, but the Republican decline

was almost double the Democratic decline. In the five

District 2 metropolitan counties, the Republican vote fell

by 12,632, almost triple the Democratic decline of 4,406.

The Republican vote decline was steeper than the Democratic

decline in all four full district 1 counties: Penobscot

(Bangor), 3,771 versus 1,606; Androscoggin (Lewiston), 2,287

versus 1,514; Waldo (Belfast), 1,251 versus 259; Hancock

(Bar Harbor), 2,081 versus 479. In split Kennebec, the

Republican vote fell 3,242, whereas the Democratic vote only

fell 548. In the five Portlandia district 1 full counties,

the Democratic vote rose by a net 11,164, whereas the

Republican vote fell by 17,62371.

71 The Democratic vote fell by 36 in Lincoln but rose by 11,200 in the other four counties, led by 7,104 in Cumberland and 2,849 in York.

64

Thus, in Maine between 2004 and 2012:

Total registration rose by 1,488;

Democratic registration rose by 7,664,

Republican fell by 9,314; Unenrolled fell by

12,576, and Green Independent rose by 15,637.

The total vote for any office fell by 15,994,

and for President fell by 27,572, including

11,578 blank Presidential ballots in 2012.

The Democratic raw vote for President rose by

4,464, and the Republican raw vote fell by

37,925.

In the six Rural Maine district 2 counties,

Republicans between 2004 and 2012 lost twice

as many votes as the Democrats.

In the five metropolitan district 2 counties,

Republicans lost three times as many votes as

the Democrats.

In the five full Portlandia district 1

counties, Democrats went up and Republicans

went down by a combined margin of 28,787.

There Are Not Enough Registered Nonvoters in 2012 Rural Maine To Flip District

2, Much Less The State

65

The 55 percent turnout rate used by Sean Trende applied

to the 2012 Rural Maine district 2 registered 2012 nonvoter

numbers of 214 (rural 6 counties) and 9,902 (metropolitan 5

counties) results in all of 5,563 new voters. Even at 100

percent turnout, it only adds 10,116, less than half of the

2012 Obama district 2 margin.

In Every Presidential Year, Between 220 and 300 Thousand Registered

Maine Voters Do Not Vote

Each Presidential year, over 200,000 registered Maine

voters do not vote. Perusal of the Maine Secretary of State

website portals “Voter Registration Data and Election Data”

and “Election Results” statewide and county-by-county

charts72 reveals that between 220 and 300 thousand

registered Maine voters regularly “stay home” in

Presidential years should be kept in mind when evaluating

the turnout increases needed for The Missing White Voter

Theory to flip Maine or Maine-2.

Chart VIII: Regular Registered Nonvoters in Maine and

Maine-2

72

? For those who are interested, on the website each county is further broken down by precinct.

66

Registered Voting Registered Nonvoters %

2004 1,023,956 803,465 220,491

21.53%

Maine-2 Rural: 203,611 140,898 62,713 30.80%

Maine-2 Metro: 363,292 260,391 102,901 28.32%

2008 1,057,595 744,542 313,053

29.60%

Maine-2 Rural: 203,386 140,327 63,059 31.00%

Maine-2 Metro: 375,344 259,329 116,015 30.90%

2012 1,025,444 724,758 300,686

29.32%

Maine-2 Rural: 194,778 131,851 62,927 32.30%

Maine-2 Metro: 362,841 250,038 112,803 31.08%

4-12 + 1,488 minus 78,707 + 80,195

+ 7.79%

Maine-2 Rural: minus 8,833 minus 9,047 + 214 +

1.50%

Maine-2 Metro: minus 451 minus 10,353 + 9,902 +

2.76%

8-12 min. 32,151 min. 19,784 min.

12,367 min. 0.28%

Maine-2 Rural: min. 8,608 min. 8,476 min. 132

min. 1.68%

Maine-2 Metro: min. 12,503 min. 9,291 min. 3,212

+ 0.18%

67

Between 2004 and 2012, Maine experienced a statewide

increase of 92,562 registered nonvoters for any office

between 2004 and 2008, but lost 12,367 registered nonvoters

between 2008 and 2012. These amounts total 80,195, well

below the 2012 Obama statewide margin of 109,030, not to

mention the 2008 Obama margin of 126,650. In other words,

100 percent of the 2004-2012 registered nonvoters could turn

out and vote 100 percent Republican, and the 2016 Republican

nominee still loses statewide by 28,835 against the 2012

margin. At the 55 percent turnout rate used by Mr. Trende in

his articles, it results in the addition of only 44,107 new

votes, a number that also falls short of both the 2012 and

2008 Obama statewide margins. As for Maine-2, the Rural six-

county registered nonvoter is virtually identical in all three elections: 62,713 –

63,059 – 62,927, whereas the Metropolitan five-county registered

nonvoter number went up by 9,902.

Don’t expect a 2016 surge of 2012 registered nonvoters

in rural Maine-2. The steady sixty thousand Rural Maine-2

registered nonvoter number shows that this population has

regularly stayed home and is unlikely to surge en masse in

response to a Caucasian solidarity appeal. Even if 55

percent turned out, it would add no more than 34,682 new

voters.73 The 2016 Republican nominee would need a break of

73 Using the highest of these three numbers, the 2008 number of 63,059, multiplied times .55.

68

90 percent Republican, 7 percent Democratic, 3 percent

Others to achieve 28,768 and defeat the Obama 2012 district

2 margin of 28,438 by all of 330 raw votes.74

As for Metropolitan Maine-2, even with the illusory

inclusion of all of Kennebec County (Augusta-Lewiston-

Waterville, all in district 1), the registered nonvoter

number exceeded 100,000 in all three elections, and

increased by 9,902 between 2004 and 2012. Even if 55 percent

of the 2008 number of 116,015 turned out, only 63,808 would

be added, and the 2016 Republican nominee would need 71

percent to achieve 28,713 and defeat by Obama 2012 district

2 margin by all of 275 votes.75 The only recent

historical precedent for anything near a 100,000 total vote

gain is the 2000-2004 statewide total Presidential vote

surge of 88,935, 53,494 of which occurred in district 2.

However, as demonstrated above, between 2004 and 2012 voter

registration has declined in district 2 while increasing in

district 1.

A Republican Caucasian Solidarity Appeal in 2016 Will Simply

Increase Democratic Margins In The Ten Metropolitan Maine

Counties

74 34,682 x .90% Republican (plus 31,213) minus .07% Democratic (2,427),with 3% to Others (1,040).

75 63,808 x.71% Republican (plus 45,303) minus .26% Democratic (16,590)with 3% to Others (1,914).

69

In 2008 and 2012, candidate Barack Obama carried 15 of

the 16 Maine counties, flipping Washington from Bush and

losing only lightly populated Piscataquis, which LBJ and HHH

both carried in 1964-1968.76 If the 2016 Republican

campaign is premised on a Caucasian solidarity appeal, it

will likely alienate enough moderate Caucasian voters to

the point that the 2016 Democratic candidate will increase

the already substantial margins in the five Maine-1

Portlandia counties and go up even more in Kennebec,

Androscoggin and Penobscot, the three largest total 2012

Presidential vote counties in Maine-2, not to mention

Hancock (Bar Harbor), Waldo (Belfast) and Washington

(Machias). What happens in Oxford, Somerset, Franklin and

Piscataquis of lesser consequence, but outside of

Piscataquis, Republicans post-1988 have achieved a majority

only in 2000 Washington County.77

Instead of chasing nonexistent nonvoting or

unregistered Missing White Voters, Republicans would be

better off coming to terms with the consistent Democratic

post-1988 wins of every Maine county except Piscaqtaquis,

76 Humphrey lost the coastal Down East counties of Hancock, Waldo, Lincoln and Knox.77

? The Washington County 2000-2012 percentages:

2000: Bush 50.66%, margin 1,2572004: Bush 49.79%, margin 228.2008: Obama 49.51%, margin 169.2012: Obama 49.27%, margin 253.

70

especially the vote-heavy district 1 counties and the

district 2 counties of Androscoggin, Kennebec and Penobscot.

If Republicans persuade 55,000 statewide Maine Obama 2012

voters (40,000 in district 1, 15,000 in district 2),

Republicans can win Maine statewide by 970 votes, Maine-1 by

721 votes, and Maine-2 by 1,562 votes. As can be seen,

switches by one out of every 18 Obama 2012 voters in

Portlandia district 1 and one out of every 11 Obama voters

in rural district 2 would flip the state and both districts,

whereas targeting only the six Rural Maine district 2

counties requires a switch of one out every four of the

67,642 Obama 2012 in Piscataquis, Oxford, Franklin,

Somerset, Washington and Aroostook counties simply to flip

one electoral vote in district 2 (assuming no Democratic

gains in Metropolitan District 2 or Portlandia district 1,

which is unlikely).

71

The Solid East plus Ohio, Virginia, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New

Mexico and the Left Coast – The Coming Democratic 272 Lock on the Electoral

College

Since this article is the last one in the Electoral

College Junket series to focus on an Eastern state, it is

worthwhile to recap our discussion of Pennsylvania, New

Hampshire and Maine, the only three of the 12 Eastern

electoral vote jurisdictions seriously targeted by the

Republicans in 2000 et seq.78 The Missing White Voter Theory

will not flip any of the 112 Eastern electoral votes in 2016

or 2020, because:

In Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), the 2012

Obama margin is 309,840, but the increase in

registered nonvoters between 2004 and 2012 is

114,138; while the 2012 registered nonvoter number

is 759,964, at the 55 percent turnout rate only

417,980 are added, and Republicans would need 87

percent of this group that has consistently failed

to vote.

In New Hampshire (4), the 2012 Obama margin is

39,643, the 2004-2012 registered nonvoter increase

is only 15,068, and only 317 came from the three

of ten rural New Hampshire counties; the 2012

78 Michael Barone in The Almanac of American Politics 2014 claims that Maine was not a targeted state in 2014 (page 752), but as discussed above, the Bangor Daily News and Portland Press Herald saw district 2 as targeted.

72

registered nonvoter number in Rural New Hampshire

is only 19,028.

In Maine’s Second U.S. House District (1), the

2012 Obama margin was 28,438, but the 2004-2012

registered nonvoter increase was 214 in the six

rural counties and 9,902 in the five metropolitan

counties. The 62,927 registered nonvoter number in

the six rural counties was virtually identical to

the 2004 and 2008 numbers.

Even Sean Trende does not argue that any of the 87

electoral votes in the nine states, D.C. and

Maine-1 U.S. House district on the Acela corridor

between Portland, Maine and Union Station in D.C.

will flip from The Missing White Voter Theory,

likely because the Obama 2012 percentages range

from 56.27% (Maine statewide) to 90.91% (D.C.).

In addition, our Electoral College Junket series has

explained why The Missing White Voter Theory is unlikely to

flip two East-adjacent states with another 31 electoral

votes:

Ohio (18), where the 2012 Obama margin was

166,272, but the total 2004-2012 increase in

registered nonvoters was only 104,891. Each

year, over two million registered Ohio voters

do not vote, but in 2012, only 425,044 were in

73

the 45 Rural Ohio counties where Sean Trende

discovered The Missing White Voter Theory, and

at the 55 percent turnout rate, only 233,774

are added, less than the Obama 2008 margin and

able to top Obama 2012 only at 85 percent

Republican.

Virginia (13), where the 2012 Obama margin was

149,298, but the 2004-2012 registered nonvoter

increase in the 76 Rural Virginia jurisdictions

was only 41,225, and a 55 percent turnout of

the 2012 Rural Virginia registered nonvoter

number of 395,683 adds only 217,625 (less than

the Obama 2008 margin), the Republican would

need 85 percent to top the Obama 2012 margin.

Add the 31 from Ohio and Virginia to the Solid East 112, the

Left Coast Firewall 7879, and another 51 from the default-

Democratic states of Michigan (16), Illinois (20), Minnesota

(10) and New Mexico (5), the 2016-2020 Democratic nominee

has 272 electoral votes without Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa,

Colorado or Nevada. No one seriously thinks The Missing

White Voter Theory will flip Illinois, but since Republicans

have targeted Michigan and Minnesota, and actually won New

Mexico in 2004, we will include them along with Wisconsin,

79 California (55), Washington (12), Oregon (7), and Hawaii (4).

74

Colorado, Nevada and Florida in our Electoral College Junket

series.

Next stop on our Electoral College Junket: Iowa.

Chart IX: 2012, 2004 TURNOUT In The 16 Maine Counties – active +

inactive; voting is votes for Pres + blank ballots for Pres for 2012; for

2004 no blank ballots on SOS so use Atlas Pres vote

County Registered Voting Difference 04 Reg 04 Vot

04 Diff

Rural District 2

Aroostook 52,025 34,516

17,509 55,046 37,733 17,313

Franklin 23,744 16,815

6,929 25,424 17,261 8,163

Oxford 44,349 30,074

14,275 44,845 31,546 13,299

Piscataquis 13,041 9,106

3,935 14,052 9,940 4,112

Somerset 37,609 25,231

12,378 38,336 27,108 11,228

Washington 24,010 16,109

7,901 25,908 17,310 8,598

75

Subtotal: 194,778 131,851

62,927 203,611 140,898 62,713

Total difference 4-12 + 214 more

2012 reg n/v: 62,927 x . 55 = 34,609. 2012 Obama 2 CD

margin 28,438. 92% R = 31,840 minus .06 D = 2,076 = net

R + 29,764 R by raw 1,326

100% 62,927 = R 70% = 44,048 minus D 18% 11,326 = net R

+ 32,722 R win by 4,284

Metropolitan District 2

Penobscot (Bangor) 115,270 78,780 36,490

111,873 82,112 29,761

Androscoggin (Lewiston) 78,398 54,063 24,335

79,940 56,067 23,873

Waldo 30,232 21,336

8,896 30,712 22,318 8,394

Hancock (Bar Harbor) 44,672 31,263 13,409

45,714 33,122 12,592

Kennebec (Augusta) 94,269 64,596 29,673

95,053 66,772 28,281

Subtotal: 362,841 250,038

112,803 363,292 260,391 102,901

Reg n/v diff: 4-12 + 9,902

76

2012 reg. n.v: 112,803 x . 55 = 62,041 at 72% R = 44,669

minus D 26% minus 16,130 = net R + 28,539 R win by a raw

101

District 1

Cumberland 229,107 165,529 63,578 219,167

162,962 56,205

Knox 30,058 22,521 7,537 30,919

23,247 7,672

Lincoln 28,094 21,001 7,093

29,910 22,142 7,768

Sagadahoc 29,034 21,268 7,766 28,627

21,079 7,548

York 151,532 109,483 42,049 148,430

110,033 38,400

Subtotal: 467,825 339,802 128,023 457,053

339,463 117,593

Reg n.v. 4-12 + 10,430

State UOCAVA: 3,067

not listed 2004

Statewide 1,025,444 724,758 300,686 1,023,956 803,465 220,491

Districted – first mentd Almanac 2000 state write up

US House District 2 shifted counties:

1972 map (Almanac 1974), Waldo and all of Kennebec in

district 1 (unnumbered back pages)

77

1982 map (Almanac 1984 pg 504) same as 1972

1992 map (Almanac 1994 pg555) all of Kenebec in district

1, half of Waldo moved to district 2

2002 map (Almanac 2010 pg 674 Kennebec-Augusta in

district 1, Kennebec-Waterville plus all of Waldo in

district 2

2012 map (Almanac 2014 pg 750 Waterville and Augusta in

Kennebec back in district 1, small piece of Kennebec

plus all of Waldo in district 2

Chart X: 2012, 2004 TWO-PARTY RAW VOTE In The 16 Maine Counties

County R 2012, 2004 D 2012, 2004 Difference

Rural District 2

Aroostook 15,196 – 17,564 17,777 – 19,569 R

minus 2,368, D minus 1,792

Franklin 6,369 – 7,378 9,367 – 9,465

R minus 1,009, D minus 98

Oxford 11,996 – 14,196 16,330 – 16,618

R minus 2,120, D minus 288

Piscataquis 4,530 – 5,299 4,149 – 4,409

R minus 769, D minus 260

Somerset 11,800 – 12,953 12,216 – 13,555

R minus 1,153, D minus 1,339

78

Washington 7,550 – 8,619 7,803 – 8,391

R minus 1,069, D minus 588

Subtotal: 57,441 – 66,009 67,642 – 72,007

R minus 8,568, D minus 4,365

Metropolitan District 2

Penobscot (Bangor) 36,547 – 40,318 38,811 – 40,417

R minus 3,771, D minus 1,606

Androscoggin (Lewiston) 22,232 – 24,519 28,989 –

30,503 R minus 2,287, D minus 1,514

Waldo (Belfast) 9,058 – 10,309

11,296 – 11,555 R minus 1,251, D minus 259

Hancock (Bar Harbor) 12,324 – 14,405 17,569 –

18,048 R minus 2,081, D minus 479

Kennebec (Augusta) 26,519 – 29,761 35,068

– 35,616 R minus 3,242, D minus 548

Subtotal: 106,680 – 119,312

131,733 – 136,139 R minus 12,632, D minus 4,406

District 1

Cumberland 57,821 – 65,384 101,950 -- 94,846

R minus 7,563, D + 7,104

Knox 8,248 – 10,143 13,223 –

12,690 R minus 1,895, D + 533

Lincoln 8,899 – 10,370 11,315 –

11,351 R minus 1,371, D minus 36

Sagadahoc 8,429 – 9,497 11,821 –

11,107 R minus 1,068, D + 714

79

York 43,900 – 49,526 61,551 –

58,702 R minus 5,626, D + 2,849

Subtotal: 127,297 – 144,920 199,860 –

188,696 R minus 17,623, D + 11,200, D minus 36, D net +

11,164

Overseas: 858 -- (not listed) 2,071

(not listed) (total 2012 overseas 3054)

Statewide 292,276 – 330,241 401,306 – 396,842 R minus 37,965, D +

4,464

CHART XI: Party Registration In The 16 Maine Counties

County 2012 2004 Difference

Rural District 2

Aroostook 52,025 55,046 minus 3,021

R 14,742 15,799 minus

1,057

D 17,745 19,661 minus

1,916

U 18,042 18,806 minus

764

80

G 1,491 780 +

711

AE 5 n/a

+ 5

Franklin 23,744 25,424 minus 1,680

R 7,345 7,378 minus

33

D 6,611 7,205 minus

594

U 8,664 10,144 minus

1,500

G 1,115 697 +

418

AE 9 n/a +

9

Oxford 44,349 44,845 minus 496

R 11,723 11,604 + 119

D 12,214 12,952 minus 738

U 18,569 19,365 minus 796

G 1,841 924 + 917

AE 2 n/a + 2

Piscataquis 13,041 14,052 minus 1,011

81

R 4,536 4,753 minus

217

D 3,470 4,055 minus

585

U 4,970 5,015 minus

45

G 462 229 + 23

AE 3 n/a +

3

Somerset 37,609 38,336 minus 727

R 11,236 10,934 + 302

D 11,014 11,910 minus 896

U 13,992 14,759 minus 767

G 1,365 733 + 632

AE 2 n/a + 2

Washington 24,010 25,908 minus 1,898

R 7,304 7,803 minus 499

D 7,051 7,838 minus 787

U 8,937 9,913 minus 976

G 716 354 + 362

AE 2 n/a + 2

82

Subtotal: Registration minus 8,833, R minus

1,806/+421 (net minus 1,385), D minus 5,516, U minus

4,848, Green + 3,063, AE + 23

Metropolitan District 2

Penobscot (Bangor) 115,270 111,873 +

3,397

R 34,342

33,568 + 774

D 34,112

34,334 minus 222

U 42,484

41,707 + 777

G 4,028

2,264 + 1,764

AE 4

n/a + 4

Androscoggin (Lewiston) 78,398 79,940 minus

1,542

R 18,150

17,637 + 513

D 26,315

28,676 minus 2,361

U 30,175

31,644 minus 1,469

83

G 3,754

1,983 + 1,771

AE 4

n/a + 4

Waldo (Belfast) 30,232 30,712

minus 480

R 8,833

9,486 minus 653

D 8,179

8,028 + 151

U 11,714

12,204 minus 490

G 1,503

994 + 509

AE 3

n/a + 3

Hancock (Bar Harbor) 44,672 45,714

minus 1,042

R 13,520

14,757 minus 1,237

D 13,240

12,272 + 968

U 16,154

17,399 minus 1,245

84

G 2,106

1,286 + 820

AE 3

n/a + 3

Kennebec (Augusta) 94,269 95,053

minus 784

R 26,134

26,141 minus 7

D 30,139

31,240 minus 1,101

U 34,307

35,456 minus 1,149

G 3,683

2,216 + 1,467

AE 6

n/a + 6

Subtotal: Registration minus 3,848, + 3,397 (net minus

451), R minus 1,897/plus 1,287 (net minus 610), D minus

3,684/plus 1,119 (net minus 2,565), U minus 4,353/plus

777 (net minus 3,576) Green + 6,331, AE + 20

District 1

Cumberland 229,107 219,167

+ 9,940

R 55,801

59,115 minus 3,314

85

D 83,193

72,940 + 10,253

U 80,346

80,961 minus 615

G 9,753

6,151 + 3,602

AE 14

n/a + 14

Knox 30,058

30,919 minus 861

R 8,883

9,941 minus 1,058

D 9,373

8,130 + 1,243

U 10,560

11,960 minus 1,400

G 1,238

888 + 350

AE 4

n/a + 4

Lincoln 28,094

29,910 minus 1,816

R 9,222

10,356 minus 1,134

86

D 7,783

7,636 + 147

U 9,974

11,166 minus 1,192

G 1,110

752 + 358

AE 5

n/a + 5

Sagadahoc 29,034 28,627 +

407

R 8,075

8,416 minus 341

D 8,741

8,167 + 574

U 11,098 11,265

minus 167

G 1,116

779 + 337

AE 4

n/a + 4

York 151,532 148,430 +

3,102

R 38,292 39,764

minus 1,472

87

D 47,682

44,154 + 3,528

U 60,689

61,387 minus 698

G 4,862

3,125 + 1,737

AE 7

n/a + 7

Subtotal: Registration + 13,449/minus 2,677 (net +

10,772), R minus 7,319, D + 15,745, U + 4,072, Green +

6,384, AE + 34

Statewide: Registration net + 1,488, R minus 9,314, D + 7,664, U minus

4,352, Green+ 15,778, AE + 77

2008 Reg NV Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Piscataquis, Somerset,

Washington

Aroostook: 2008 Reg 51,407 + 2480 2008 TV 37,056

Franklin 24,968 + 1636 17,562

Oxford 43,190 + 2097 32,387

Piscataquis 12,859 + 984 9,648

Somerset 36,954 + 1648 26,501

Washington 24,188 + 8045 17,173

TOTAL: 193,566 + 16,890 = 210,456 140,327 = 70,129

88

Androscoggin 72,908 + 7986

56,353

Penobscot 111,478 + 9679

82,442

Hancock 43,425 + 1964

30,941

Waldo 28,882 + 2566

22,319

Kennebec 90,590 + 5866

67,274

TOTAL: 347,283 + 28,061 = 375,344 259,329 =

116,015

89