A quantitative analysis of the informal market in the wine and spirits fields

A QuANTITATIVE ANALYsIs Of THE INfOrMAL MArKET IN THE WINE ANd spIrITs fIELd

pIErsTEfANO BErTADirector of OICCE - Canelli (Italia)

Wine, a “global” product

To address the global market, it is necessary to be acquainted with it, risks andcomplexities included.

As was said in the presentation of this congress, for Italian producers entering theinternational market is no easy matter. Many problems emerge, sometimes too late to beadequately solved.

This congress was organized to suggest possible skills to adopt, to offer advice forconsideration and to outline the market context Italian wine exporters have to cometo terms with.

This is the background against which the following analysis has been made, its aimbeing to highlight the most problematic elements of the global market.

Wine really has become a “global” product, consumed and enjoyed today on everycontinent. suffice it to think that, in just ten years, wine’s international exchange value hasrisen to 25 billion dollars - recording growth of more than 100% - against substantiallystable consumption at world level.

The data presented in 2013 by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV)show how this positive trend is continuing, with an increase by 9.8% in the 2011-2012period. The European union accounts for 45% of total imports, while North Americaaccounts for 22.5% and Asia for 14.5%.

Analysing trends in individual countries, the OIV data also show a sharp marketdrop among traditional consumers, especially in romania, spain, Italy and Argentina,the countries where markets declined most in the 2000-2012 period, i.e over 20%. Themarkets that grew the most, on the other hand, were russia (up 120%), China (up60%), Australia and the usA.

With domestic consumption of around 29 million hectolitres in 2012 (a 37%increase since 2000), the united states is becoming the largest market in the world

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in terms of volume. In other words, consumption has literally “migrated” from traditional wine producing

countries to markets that are currently enjoying significant economic development. In Italy, for example, while almost 37 million hectolitres of wine were being consumed

in the late 1980s and 31 million in 2000, the figure has now dropped by more than 37%to 23 million. In other words, Italians now drink fewer than 40 litres a year against morethan 60 almost 20 years ago. The same trend is being recorded in france, whereconsumption per capita has fallen from 66 litres to 53, and spain, where it has gone downfrom 40 to 30.

Italian producers are now having to face tough challenges. referring to this scenario,in an article published recently in the OICCE Times magazine, paolo de Castro, chair ofthe European parliament’s Committee on Agriculture and rural development, wrote that“the watchword is now becoming … ‘export’”[1].

Overseas sales of Italian wine are growing every year. In the period from August 2012to August 2013, they reached the record figure of 4.8 billion euros, the equivalent of morethan 20 million hectolitres. Compared to ten years ago, their value has grown by more than80%.

In terms of value, three markets absorb more than half of Italian bottled wine exports.They are: the united states (24%), Germany (19%) and the united Kingdom (12%). Ninecountries account for more than 80% of Italian exports.

The Italian presence in the five BrICs countries (Brazil, russia, India, China andsouth Africa) is still limited. The latest data from the Italian National Institute of statistics(IsTAT) show that russia contributes to less than 2% of the total value of Italian exports,China to just 1.5%. None of the BrICs countries appears among the top ten importers. Itwill not be easy to penetrate these markets and it will take a huge effort to do so. At therisk of sounding obvious, the efforts that need to be made are directly proportional to thegeographical distance that separates the countries in question.

The further away countries are, the greater the efforts have to be and the more businesssize becomes an important competitive factor. from this point of view, alas, Italian winecompanies are numerous but small.

suffice it to think that the top ten companies account for just 15% of total sales in thesector and 25% of exports. As de Castro pointed out, even if it cannot serve as abenchmark for Italy, it is worth considering the significant example of Chile, where thethree best-selling companies account for 52% of the country’s total wine exports.

The fact is that large companies can bank upon greater financial, organizational andentrepreneurial capacities, all conditions necessary to respond to the constraints anddemands of business operators on emerging markets.

It is thus fundamental to be able to cover the market, which means having a permanentpresence in the countries in question, understanding their food traditions, distributionmechanisms, tariff constraints and specific characteristics.

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A quantitative analysis of the informal market in the wine and spirits field

World wine consumption: a consistent level

Global estimates for world wine consumption - OIV forecast a total of 243.2 millionhectolitres in 2012 - were stable with respect to 2011, an excellent result. The increase withrespect to 2000 was sizable, the equivalent of 17 million hectolitres [2].

france still has the largest domestic wine market (with annual consumption of 30.3million hectolitres), but its position is no longer unopposed, with second-placed usArecording a further increase that raises its annual consumption to 29 million hectolitres.Italy has once more reduced its consumption, this time by 420,000 hectolitres, and nowshows an annual figure of 22.6 million hectolitres. since 2000, the constant drop in wineconsumption in Italy has caused its domestic market to lose as many as 8.2 millionhectolitres - the largest single decrease in the world.

The German market is stable at 20 million hectolitres, while interesting data wererecorded in the united Kingdom, with consumption at 12.5 million hectolitres (a 32%increase compared to 2000 figures) and China, where the domestic demand exceeded17.8 million hectolitres, a 67% increase with respect to 2000 figures.

International trade: Italian leadership

In 2012, international trade exchanges, considered as all the exports of all theproducing countries, were marked by a sharp growth in value of 8.3% and an overall totalvalue of 25.3 billion euros. The increase in value was, however, accompanied by a 1.7%decrease in volume. Global exports thus total 99 million hectolitres, with average priceup by 10.2%.

The increased cost of wine recorded on the world market in 2012 is the result of a dropin supply due to the limited volumes produced and a trend in trade exchanges that led tolower exports of bulk wine.

Europe boasts the world leadership in wine exports. Italy leads the field with exportsat 21.2 million hectolitres in 2011, followed by spain (19.5 million hectolitres) and france(15 million hectolitres). In terms of value, however, france leads the field easily withexports worth 7.8 billion euros at an average value of 5.23 euros per litre. Italy comessecond with exports worth 4.7 billion euros (2.21 euros per litre), spain third with exportsworth 2.4 billion euros.

In fourth place comes Australia with exports worth 1.5 billion euros (7.3 millionhectolitres), ahead of Chile (7.5 million hectolitres) and the united states (4 millionhectolitres).

Knowing each market

The picture of imports by macro-areas is well outlined by OIV in its annual reports.

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Analyzing the OIV Vine and Wine Outlook 2008-2009 survey, published in february2013, a very interesting picture emerges [3]:

• African wine imports showed an increase once more, totalling 2.9 Mhl (millionhectolitres) in 2009 (11.8% up on 2008). Angola, Ivory Coast and south Africa continueto be the continent’s leading importers.

• North and south America show a constant import growth trend with a total of 15 Mhl,8.2% up on 2008. With imports of 9.2 Mhl in 2009 (11.7% up on 2008), the united statesis once more the world’s third largest wine importer.

• Asia continues to see its imports rise in 2009 with a total of 5.47 Mhl, 7.2% up on2008. A number of countries recorded increases, in particular China whose import volumehas increased by 15.3% since 2008.

• Europe still holds the highest share of total world volume with 60.6Mhl (72% of allimports) in 2009.

• Oceania, with 1 Mhl, saw the already modest level of its imports fall in 2009, by 14%with respect to 2008, thus returning to its 2007 level.

The global picture is based on the sum of the trends and behaviours of individualnational markets. These differ greatly one from another and it is necessary to be acquaintedwith them in detail to address them appropriately.

One possible classification is that presented by Wine Intelligence, distinguishingbetween Established countries and Emerging countries [4].

The “Established” countries can be divided into three large groups:

Traditional Established: wine producing countries with high residual per capitaconsumption, but stable or declining.

Mature Established: markets with strong historical growth which is tailing off. High-growth Established: markets where wine is becoming a mainstream product and

is experiencing above-trend growth.

The “Emerging” countries can be divided into two groups:

Emerging: markets where wine is experiencing rapid growth from a relatively lowbase.

New Emerging: markets where wine is still a relatively new and unknown beverage. As Wine Intelligence showed in a recent analysis, the positions of the countries in

these different groups vary greatly according to importance of brand, nation of origin andregion of origin.

The analysis was conducted on several countries and in it Wine Intelligence showshow Germany and russia, for example, are sensitive to country of origin and brand, howBrazil considers origin important but places the priority on price, how the usA appreciatebrand and variety and how countries like the united Kingdom, finally, regard price andvariety as highly important.

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Informal commerce…

Most international trade in wines and spirits is formalized and follows officialchannels, but a large part travels different routes.

We are referring to informal commerce, which, insofar as it is unrecorded, is hard tomonitor. But acquaintance with it is important to address the relative risks in the best waypossible.

It deliberately eludes official data for a number of reasons, which is precisely why itis particularly hard to analyse.

It is thus interesting to begin an analysis of the risks of the international market witha map of the informal market. To draw this, I have used the different public sources oforganizations that study the quantitative data of wine and spirits markets in general andsought to summarise them.

More specifically, the principal sources used in this analysis were documentspublished by:

CEps: Confederation of European spirits producers ICAp: International Center for Alcohol policies IWsr: International Wine and spirit research OIV: Organisation Internationale de la Vigne et du Vin WHO: World Health Organization The data from international studies show that a significant proportion of all alcohol

consumed globally is not reflected in the official statistics, such as production, trade andsales figures.

These beverages have been defined in different ways by the different institutions thatdealwith them: they come under the general definitions of noncommercial alcohol (ICAp)and unrecorded alcohol (WHO) and grey market (IWsr). They may be licit, semi-licitor illicit.

for the purpose of this analysis, I prefer to define this phenomenon as the “informalmarket”, which comprises nonofficial production, the black market and the grey market.The scheme shows a general picture of the informal market and its three subdivisions:

• Nonofficial production, which includes: traditional drinks produced informally forhome consumption or limited local trade, whether licit or illicit; substitute products, bottlesrefilled with other products, counterfeit products and illicit mass-produced beverages;surrogate or nonbeverage alcohol.

• The black market, which includes: organized contraband or contraband carried outby single travellers, false customs declarations and false statements by the producersresulting in undervalued goods or understated quantities for customs purposes.

• The grey market, which includes: the international parallel market, travellers’imports, cross-border shopping and duty free leaks.

Given that the products that fit into these groups circulate outside legally monitoredor recorded commercial settings, they evade or elude taxation and, in certain cases, do not

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undergo formal quality controls. This is why information about their production, quality and consumption models is

limited.Various economic and social factors drive production and consumption on the informal

market. It is necessary to stress that not all these phenomena are connected with criminal

operations or operations deemed to be illegal. High-quality artisan beverages aresometimes a prominent part of local culture, so their production and consumption are amatter of national pride.

demand on the informal market of alcoholic beverages is sometimes driven by thesignificant price differential between commercial and non-commercial products. The costof alcoholic beverages in Europe, for example, varies a lot from country to country andthis differential spawns cross-border shopping.

In certain countries, stringent controls on the trade in alcoholic beverages and limitson their physical availability drive the demand towards the black and grey markets.

Now let us take a brief round-the-world journey to view these phenomena bygeographical areas. for each macro-area, we shall seek to highlight the informalproduction volumes of wines and spirits, informal trafficking and identify the countries inwhich significant cases of counterfeiting have been recorded.

Western Europe

In this geographical area, it is possible to note two main phenomena. The first is the sizeable unrecorded production of traditional wines and alcoholic

drinks. It is possible to estimate a global informal production of 1.8 million cases of spirits(163,000 hectolitres) and 170 million cases of wine (15.3 million hectolitres).

The principal informal flows within the area are driven by different levels of taxationand include: the importation of 500,000 cases of spirits in spain (from the Caribbean,uruguay and portugal); the flow from spain to france (an estimated 2,2 million cases ofspirits) and to a lesser extent, from Italy to france; the flow towards the united Kingdom,mainly from france (an estimated 95,000 cases of spirits and 1 million cases of wine).

A certain amount of counterfeiting of scotch whisky, gin, vodka and brandy is reportedin spain, though it has decreased in recent years.

Moving to informal exports, flows are reported to Africa, from spain and france, toMalta from Italy (250,000 cases of wine). significant flows have also been reported inNorthern Europe, from Germany to denmark and from Belgium and The Netherlandsnorthwards.

The Netherlands in particular is home to companies specialized in parallel trafficking(even presenting their specialization publicly on the internet), but quantitative data aboutthem are lacking.

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Eastern Europe

In the Eastern European area too, it is possible to note a significant unrecordedproduction of spirits (concentrating in the north, especially in poland) and informalproduction of wine in traditional producing countries. In this area, global informalproduction can be estimated at 33 million cases of spirits (3,000,000 hectolitres) and 98million cases of wine (8.8 million hectolitres).

Large-scale counterfeiting is recorded in poland, where about 6 million cases of spiritsare undeclared. The falsification of international brands has also been recorded in serbia,while counterfeiting and refilling have been recorded in Greece and Turkey, as well asTurkish Cyprus.

Counterfeiting was carried out on a large scale in the Czech republic until 2012.According to the local organization of distillers, in 2010 about one bottle out of everyfour sold in the country was counterfeited [9]. In 2012 this situation led to very seriousproblems of methanol poisoning. After in-depth investigations, the Czech authoritiesannounced that the problems were correlated with the consumption of alcoholic beveragesof illegal origin, retailed with fake labels. These episodes have caused great damage to thelocal image and economy. On september 12 2012, the Czech health authorities declareda ban on retail sales of beverages with an alcohol content in excess of 30% (v/v) and onseptember 14 on those of beverages with an alcohol content in excess of 20% [10] [11].

Nordic Countries

With the exception of denmark and the Baltic countries, this region is characterizedby particularly high tax rates on spirits. As a result, there is a vast grey market in whichcitizens of one country go to buy alcoholic beverages in a neighbouring country that ismore economical because of lower taxes.

Thus danes buy 220,000 cases of spirits and 1.6 million cases of wine in Germany,swedes buy in denmark, Norwegians buy in sweden and finns in Estonia. The outcomeis a vast parallel market of 7 million cases of spirits and 4.4 million cases of wine. A totalof one million hectolitres of alcoholic beverages is thus bought through informal channels.Then comes home production. In the wake of the economic crisis, in the Baltic countriesthe proportion of undeclared production has increased considerably, in Latvia reaching45% of the total. This situation has caused the undeclared production of spirits in the areato rise to a figure of 4.5 million cases (400,000 hectolitres). If we consider that just 32million people live in the area, these data are staggering.

It is important to stress that the increased availability of spirits through public channelsin Norway, sweden and finland has brought about a drop in home production, whichwas very widespread in the past.

In the Baltic states, counterfeiting is a prominent phenomenon (limited in Estonia,more common in Latvia and Lithuania).

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Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

In russia unrecorded imports from other nations are very limited. Only low importsof vodka from finland and sales to ukraine, China and Lithuania are reported. Eveninformal duty free inflows have decreased considerably.

In this area, however, the unrecorded production of wine is significant, amounting toa total of 32.6 million cases.

There are also reports of a serious problem regarding the counterfeiting of brandy,vodka and still wines in russia and ukraine. The refilling of bottles of high-priced russianvodka is also widespread. A total of 6 million cases of counterfeited products has beenestimated in this area.

The most glaring phenomenon in russia, however, is unrecorded production byregistered producers, in private houses and in small villages and towns.

One of the country’s most popular alcoholic beverages is, in fact, samogon, whichmeans self-distilled. The drink is a direct competitor of vodka which, partly due to taxation,is more expensive. A 2002 study showed how, among rural families in Central russia,samogon is the most popular alcoholic beverage with a per capita consumption higherthan that of vodka by a ratio of 4.8 to 1.

It would appear that producing homemade samogonwith sugar is cheaper than buyingan equivalent amount of vodka.

since 2011, the average cost of producing homemade samogon is somewhere inthe region of 30 roubles (about 0.70 euros) per litre, and is determined largely bythe price of sugar. The break-even point for “economy class” vodka is 100 roublesper litre (2.30 euros per litre), but taxes raise retail sale prices to as much as 280roubles per litre (6.40 euros per litre). possibly as a result of tax increases, per capitavodka consumption has been falling in russia since 2004. Among the lower classes,it has been largely replaced by samogon. some analysts expect the trend to translateinto increased samogon consumption among the middle classes, and that by 2014,sales of samogon will overtake those of vodka to make it the most popular alcoholicbeverage nationally [15] [16].

Estimates vary a lot from source to source. World Health Organization figures put thenumber of unrecorded cases of alcoholic beverages at about 250 million, whereas othersources estimate up to 730 million. The assumption taken into consideration of 370 millioncases is based essentially on figures released by the russian Ministry of the Interior in2009. However, the recent sharp drop in official sales of alcoholic beverages, probably tothe advantage of informal channels, suggests that these figures are underestimated [17].

The Persian Gulf

This is one of the informal market areas that has grown most in recent years, alcoholbeing in demand in Iraq, in countries, such as saudi Arabia, where it is forbidden, and in

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India. The driving force behind the trend is prohibitionist legislations [18] and, in the caseof India, high taxes.

The countries of origin of alcoholic beverages are Turkey, the Gulf states (djibouti,the uAE, Oman), Lebanon (and, to a lesser extent, syria) and Jordan. They also originatefrom ports in Europe, The Netherlands appearing very active according to some sources.The main beverages sold on this informal market are scotch whisky and vodka. There isalso a limited traffic in wine, but for obvious reasons of climate - the heat causes transportproblems - the volume is marginal.

The global estimate of informal traffic in this area is 4.3 million cases. The countriesthat import the most are saudi Arabia (1.3 million cases) and Iraq (1.8 million cases).

Counterfeiting has also been reported in Iraq and Iran, while a significant productionof arak and date wine has been reported in Iran.

India

The informal market - contraband, duty free leaks (worth 125,000 cases on theirown) and large-scale counterfeiting (valued at 950,000 cases for scotch whisky alone) -is very active on the Indian subcontinent in southern Asia.

Informal imports come from the persian Gulf, Europe, sri Lanka and singapore.Alcoholic beverages are also re-exported to neighbouring countries. Local production of alcoholic beverages is estimated at 200-350 million cases. Other

informal production is estimated at 80-185 million cases. The overall estimate exceeds 400million cases.

Informal production for the local market (15 million cases) and for export, to India andthe Maldives, would appear to be high in sri Lanka too.

Southeast Asia

singapore has become one of the hubs for all traffic in the southeast Asian region, bothfor regular products and for duty free leaks and for the Grey Market. In certain cases, theofficial data for imports and local consumption do not match. If we take as an examplethe official 2009 data for scotch whisky, while the overall figures for the region wererelatively balanced, in singapore consumption totalled 227,000 cases against imports of4 million cases. The vast majority of imports to singapore are evidently not consumedlocally but re-exported through informal channels. proof of the fact is that, in the sameyear, China, Vietnam and Thailand showed an official import deficit of about 2.8 millioncases of scotch with respect to the quantities actually consumed.

Hong Kong too has become a trafficking hotspot, especially for wine followingthe cancellation of excise duties. About one million cases of wine entered HongKong for subsequent re-exportation. Hence large-scale grey traffic to China,Taiwan, Vietnam and Macau.

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unrecorded production in China, mostly consisting of alcoholic beverages made withrice and other cereals, is estimated at about 100 million cases a year.

Counterfeiting, especially of scotch whisky and cognac, but also of Bordeaux redwines, is widespread in China.

The same applies in Indonesia with all imported spirits and in Malaysia, largely withspanish brandy and scotch whisky.

scotch whisky and cognac are widely counterfeited in Thailand and Vietnam as well. In Taiwan counterfeiting is regarded as endemic. Here it is said that each new

successful product is systematically counterfeited, and wine too has been counterfeited onnumerous occasions [19].

North and Central America

It is estimated that a total of 115,000 cases of spirits is produced informally in theusA. Officials in the us state of Virginia estimate that the state loses usd 20 milliondollars a year in tax revenue to the production and consumption of illicit whiskey, popularin some rural areas and poor inner cities [7]. Most informal traffic out of the united statesis directed towards Mexico (250,000 cases, mostly of scotch whisky).

The Caribbean and Central America import about 120,000 cases of spirits and 60,000cases of wine informally. A significant traffic in french products is carried on in theCaribbean, in saint Martin in particular.

products counterfeited in Asia also come into the region through panama. Central America - especially El salvador, Mexico and Colombia - is an important area

for counterfeiting and refilling. Albeit significant, the amounts of counterfeited alcoholic beverages produced in

Ecuador and Venezuela are lower.

South America

Informal trafficking in south America is centred round the huge Brazilian market.significant informal imports come into the country in the form of contraband scotchwhisky from uruguay and paraguay (290,000 cases) and duty free leaks (195,000 cases).Informal imports of about 300,000 cases of wine from uruguay and paraguay have alsobeen reported.

Counterfeiting is reportedly high in Bolivia, but lower in paraguay. It is also high insurinam, especially for exportation to Brazil.

Conclusions

summing up, this tour round the world of informal alcoholic beverage and winemarkets yields the following data:

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• Almost one billion cases of alcoholic beverages and 320 million cases of wine eludeformal production and control channels.

• Of the products bottled formally, 22 million cases of spirits and 10 million cases ofwine end up travelling through informal commercial channels, such as contraband and theblack and grey markets.

• Not all these products are illegal and many are connected with traditionally acceptedpractises in the communities in question.

• There are, however, about 23 nations in the world where counterfeiting is awidespread practise.

All these data might serve as an interesting starting point for a more in-depthdiscussion of the problems that need to be tackled and of the precautions in order whenaddressing the complex panorama of the world market.

Bibliography

[1] de Castro p. “Vino, risorsa per l’Europa” OICCE Times, numero 53 anno xIII - inverno 2012,pagg. 15-18

[2] Mainardi G., Berta B. (eds) “speciale 36° Congresso OIV - La Vite e il Vino tra tradizione emodernità” OICCE Times, numero 55 anno xIV - estate 2013, pag. 37

[3] OIV “Vine and Wine Outlook 2008-2009” OIV, paris, 2013

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[10] Ministero della salute “Intossicazioni da metanolo in repubblica Ceca, ecco le foto delleetichette contraffatte dei superalcolici” 18 settembre 2012 Available:http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_newsAree_2175_listafile_itemName_0_file.pdf

[11] “Czechs ban spirits after bootleg alcohol poisoning” BBC News Europe 15 september 2012Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19608461

[12] Weaver, C. (2009, March 12). Illegal vodka set to account for half of all sales. Moscow Times[Online]. Available:http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/illegal-vodka-set-to-account-for-half-of-all-sales/375218.html

[13] Ernst & Young “The contribution of the spirits industry to the uE economy” Amsterdam,

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december 2010

[14] “Turkey arrests after adulterated alcohol kills russians” BBC News Europe 7 June 2011Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13687187

[15] Titievsky V. “russia’s alcohol consumption more than 100% above critical level” rIA Novosti,Moscow, september 24, 2009 [Online]. Available:http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090924/156238102.html

[16] razvodovsky Yu. E. “Noncommercial Alcohol in Central and Eastern Europe” ICAp review3, International Center for Alcohol policies, Washington, 2008

[17] “Legal vodka production falls by one-third in russia” rT, Moscow, June 24, 2013 [Online].Available: http://rt.com/business/russia-vodka-production-falls-158/

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[19] “More bootleg red wine discovered in Changhua” CNA November 2, 2007 [Online]. Available:http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/local/changhua/2007/11/02/129161/More-bootleg.htm

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A quantitative analysis of the informal market in the wine and spirits fields

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