Studi Kelayakan Proyek Kereta API Cepat Jakarta-Bandung Tahap I
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Transcript of Studi Kelayakan Proyek Kereta API Cepat Jakarta-Bandung Tahap I
-
JICA Study Team
Feasibility Study for Jakarta-BandungHigh Speed Railway Project
(as a part of Jakarta-Surabaya) Phase I
Final Coordination Meeting
10th of April, 2015
JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY
Japan International Consultants for Transportation Co., Ltd.
Universitas Gadjah Mada
COOPERATIVE
FIRMSPT Matra Rekayasa InternasionalENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT
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JICA Study Team
Table of Contents
Project Schedule and Progress P 3
Worldwide High Speed Railway Systems P 4
Route Alignment P 5
Demand Forecast P 7
Preliminary Environment and Social Considerations P 9
Cost Estimation (Project Cost) P 10
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan P 12
Economic and Financial Analysis P 23
Overall Study Summary P24
Phase I Study Conclusions P25
Recommendations & Way Forward P 26
Implementation Schedule P 30
Possible Financing Resources in Future P 28
Project Effects P 11
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JICA Study Team
Project Schedule and Progress2014 2015
Feasibility Study Phase I Feasibility Study Phase II Engineering Service
Construction
Oct. 17th
MoM
Phase I
Preliminary analysis on JKT-BDG-SBY
Feasibility of JKT-BDG Demand forecast Comparison of
technical spec. Route alignment Location of station Preliminary
environment and social consideration
Implementing structure and scheme
Economic and financial analysis
E/S
Detailed design PPP design Tender documents
preparation Tender assistance
Phase II
Review of route alignment
Detailed technical and engineering studies
Operation and maintenance
Detailed project implementation plan
Detailed cost estimation
EIA report/ LARAP Detailed economic
and financial analysis
3
Follow Up
Inauguration
Follow up and preparation are essential to go
to Phase II.
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JICA Study Team
Worldwide High Speed Railway Systems
4
* Earthquake frequency is counted over magnitude 7.0 in each country since year 2000.
* Annual rainfall in Indonesia; 1,480mm(Jakarta), 1,656mm(Bandung)
Country Japan France Spain China South Korea
First Inauguration year 1964 1981 1992 2007 2004
Veh
icle
per
form
ance
Class E5 TGV-POS S112 CHR3C KTX-Sancheon
Maximum speed(in commercial operation)
320km/h 320km/h 300km/h 300km/h 300km/h
Output/Passenger capacity 13.1kW 26.0KW 22.0kW 15.8kW 24.2kW
Weight/ Passenger Capacity 0.62t 1.18t 0.89t 0.76t 1.11t
Top
ogr
aph
yan
d
wea
ther
Maximum Gradient 35 35 * 12.5 20 15
Earthquake Frequency* 29 0 0 5 0
Earthquake Experience Much Little Little Little Little
Annual Rainfall* Tokyo1,529mm
Paris653mm
Madrid437mm
Beijing534mm
Seoul1,429mm
* 35 in less than 4km gradient. 25 when longer.
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JICA Study Team
Route Alignment
5
1.Jakarta Kota
2.Kemayoran
4.Pasar Senen
3.Gambir
5.Dukuh Atas
6.Manggarai
7.Senayan
8.Halim
Dukuh Atas (underground) is advisable for Jakarta Sta. due to ridership
and connection with other transportation.
Commercial and business district
Discussion with the related organizations
Selection of the Candidate Sites
Current state of open space (Existence of construction space)
Future scalability
Hazardous area of natural disaster
Primary Selection
Technical aspect
Economic aspect
Environmental aspect
Secondary Selection
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JICA Study Team
Route Alignment
Only 37 minutes from Jakarta to Bandung
*1 Manggarai : after Manggarai redevelopment plan is implemented
*2 Karawang : when new airport inaugurates in future
*3 Walini : after Walini development as a new administration center of West Java Province Gov.
Station NameDistance
from Jakarta
Jakarta(underground)
0km
(Manggarai*1)(underground)
(3.5km)
Bekasi 26.1km
Cikarang 42.0km
(Karawang*2) (59.3km)
(Walini*3) (100.6km)
Bandung 128.5km
Gedebage 140.0km
6
Embankment,
24.7%
Cutting, 16.9%
Viaduct, 26.9%
Bridge, 1.1%
Cut & Cover, 0.4%
NATM, 20.1%
TBM (Shield
Tunnel), 10.0%
Stations to be opened in future
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JICA Study Team
Demand Forecast
7
161.000
252.000
323.000
44.000
68.000
115.000
148.000
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
2020 2030 2040 2050
HSR
rid
ersh
ip (p
ax /
day
)
year
JKT-SBY JKT-BDG
Car
65%
Bus
12%
Conv. Rail
5%
Air
18%
Car
Bus Conv. Rail
4%
Result of Demand Forecast
Conversion share from Each Transportation mode
(Jakarta Bandung in 2020)
Conversion share from Each Transportation mode
(Jakarta Surabaya in 2050)
Jakarta - Bandung Jakarta - Surabaya
Rp 200,000 Rp 800,000
HSR Fare
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JICA Study Team
Demand Forecast
8
Type Line DistanceYearly
Passenger Volume
Year of Statistics
Java (Study) Jakarta Bandung 140 km 16,060,000 2020 (Estimated)
Java (Study) Jakarta Bandung 140 km 54,020,000 2050 (Estimated)
KTX Gyeongbu 412 km 15,220,000 2009
TGV Atlantique 290 km 32,000,000 2008
Taiwan HSR 339 km 46,310,000 2013
Shinkansen Tokaido 515 km 154,820,000 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Transportation Density
Java HSR will have a high level transportation density among the world wide HSR
Comparison on Transportation Density
Comparison on Fare and Wage
(Pax/day/km)
HSR Fare Wage/day Remarks
(A) (B) (C)=(A)/(B)
Indonesia DKI
Low income
(2013)
Rp. 200,000 Rp. 204,501 1.0
Non-agricultural
low income level
urban household
DKI
High income
(2013)
Rp. 200,000 Rp. 445,517 0.4
Non-agricultural
high income level
urban household
Taiwan All Area
(2007)NT$ 1,490 NT$ 1,480 1.0
Japan All Area
(1964)\ 2,480 \ 1,191 2.1
All Area
(1992)\ 14,430 \ 13,620 1.1
Planned HSR fare is reasonable price as compared with Shinkansen fare
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JICA Study Team
Preliminary Environment and Social Considerations
9
Refined cost estimates associated with land acquisition and resettlement
Estimated market price for lands and structures through sample survey in each Kota /Kabupaten
Incorporated special requirements of compensation for forest and paddy fields
Estimated allowance and other costs associated with LARAP implementation
Province Land (ha) Household No.
DKI Jakarta 6.6 247
West Java 265.1*1 2,941
Total 271.7 3,188 Approx. IDR 3,960 billion
compensation (land, structure, underground space)
allowance indirect cost contingency
cost for preparing irrigated paddy field etc.
Planning
(Phase II)
Preparation (max 289 days)
Implementation (max 257 days)
Handover (37 days)
Timeline for land acquisition (Phase II + min 319 / max 583 working days)
Reviewed mechanism and schedule for LARAP implementation
*1: This figure includes 31ha of irrigated paddy field and 32ha of forest.
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JICA Study Team
Cost Estimation(Project Cost)
10
Project Cost = 6,223 million USD (Total Length = 140km)Construction Cost = 4,429 million USD (31.6 million USD/km)
ItemF/C
(million USD)L/C
(billion IDR)Total
(million USD)
(1)C
on
stru
ctio
n /
Pro
cure
me
nt
Co
st Civil Works 140 km 916 16,253 2,591
Disaster Prevention Equipment 1 LS 19 10 20
Track Works 140 km 131 1,924 329
Station Works 1 LS 78 617 141
Depot/ Workshop 1 LS 228 1,399 372
Electric Facility 1 LS 440 1,312 576
System/Automatic Fare Collection 1 LS 35 0 35
Signaling and Telecommunications Facility 1 LS 224 1,364 364
Rolling Stock 84 cars 360 0 360
Maintenance Equipment 1 LS 22 0 22
Preparation for Operation 1 LS 10 98 20
Construction/Procurement Cost (sub-total) 140 km 2,463 22,977 4,831
(2) Land Acquisition Cost 272 ha 0 3,962 408(3) Consulting Service Cost 1 LS 104 1,144 221(4) Management Cost (3)x 10% 1 LS 0 215 22
(5) Contingency (1)(3) - Rolling Stock Costx 5% 1 LS 110 1,206 235(6) Value-added Taxes (1)(3)x 10% 1 LS 0 4,902 505
Project Cost 140 km 2,677 34,406 6,223
Project Cost (USD) 140 km 2,677 3,547 6,223
Project Cost (%) 43.0 57.0 100.0
: (1) - (Rolling Stock + Maintenance Eq. + Preparation for OP.) The base month for the calculation is March 2014. {(1) - (Rolling Stock + Maintenance Eq. + Preparation for OP.)} 5% 1 USD=9,701IDR=99.24JPY
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JICA Study Team
(Almost double of initial construction cost)
(Unit: billion IDR)
Investment
VOC*Reduction
TravelTime
Saving
Economic Benefit
Increase
in Consumption
O&M
Increase
in demand
Increase in demand for
relevant industrial sector
Effect of Construction Effect of Operation
2.400 4.500
6.900 8.000
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
2020 2030 2040 2050
Project Effects
Employment creation in construction stage Approx. 35,000 workers
44,800 billion IDR 2,400 8,000 billion IDR
11
HSR Development
*: Vehicle Operation Cost
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JICA Study Team
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan
12
Preconditions for examination of the institutional framework
Preference of the Indonesian side on the project modality
Consideration of private participation in the project implementation
Financial constraint of the state government
PPP-based Model: Preferred
Vertical Separation Model: Alternative (with establishment of two SOEs)=> Similar to the structure of Japan and France
Evaluation of Options
Implementation Structure
A new authority (High Speed Railway Authority) under the MoT
Need the authority for technical control of HSR
A new SOE engaged in HSR infrastructure development
An entity that can be a borrower of external debt
Introduction of new technology (i.e. standards, safety control, paradigm) that is different from the conventional lines
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JICA Study Team
Proponent
SoE(Development and Asset
Management Company)
Business Entity
SPV(Operating Company)
PropertyDevelopment
(Station Building, etc.)
New unit of HSR(HSR-A)
MoT (DGR )
O&M of HSRAssociated Business
(Retail, advertising,
etc.)
MoFDonorODA Loan for Engineering
Services (E/S)
Recurrentcost for the
new
authority
Direct Appointment
On-lending/transfer for
E/S
Tender Process for PPP
Capital Injection
Financial Institutions
Investors
Debt
Equity
TA ProviderPMU
Civil Works, Depot, Other Facilities
Railway Systems & Track Works, Supplier:
Rolling Stock
Consulting ServicesPhase-1: Engineering Services*** Basic Design, Detail Design*** Project Modality Design*** Tender Document Preparation
& Tender Assistance for Civil Works, Procurement and PPP
GCA
Establishing a new authority for HSR and
PMU
Tender Process
Technical Support contract for O&M
Supporting Entity
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
13
Establishment of HSR Authority (HSR-A) and SOE for HSR development
Technical assistance to HSR-A Engineering services to SOE PPP for O&M and concession for
business around stations
[Stage 1: Engineering Services ]
: Financial Flow
: Other control/permit/contract
: PPP procurement process
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JICA Study Team
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
14
Technical assistance to HSR-A Direct lending by SOE for construction Engineering services to SOE Cost sharing between Gov., SOE
(development company) and SPV
[Stage 2: Construction ]
Matching by SOE Inspection by SPV before leasing
: Financial Flow
: Other control/permit/contract
: PPP contract
Proponent
SoE(Development and Asset
Management Company)
Business Entity
SPV(Operating Company)
Property Development
(Station Building, etc.)
O&M of HSR(Pre-operation)
Associated Business(Retail, advertising,
etc.)
ODA Loan for Construction
and
Procurement(Direct
Lending)
Government Guarantee
PPP Agreement & Supervising
Repayment of ODA Loan for Engineering
Services
Government Budget forConstruction
MoT (DGR )MoFDonor
Financial Institutions
Investors
Debt
Equity
TA Provider
Supervising
Recurrentcost for the
new unit
Civil Works, Depot, Other Facilities
Railway Systems & Track Works, Rolling
Stock
Consulting ServicesPhase-2: Construction Management*** Supervision of Construction
Works and Procurement*** Supervision of SPV's property
development and pre-operation*** Technology transfer
Supervising
Technical Support contract for O&M
Supporting Entity
New unit of HSR(HSR-A)
PMU
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JICA Study Team
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
15
[Stage 3: Operation ] Lease of infrastructure and facilities to
SPV Lease fee payment by SPV to SOE Repayment of loan by SOE Technical control by HSR-A Necessity of government support to the
demand risk (ex. availability payment)
: Financial Flow
: Other control/permit/contract
: PPP contract
SoE(Development and Asset
Management Company)
Business Entity
SPV(Operating Company)
O&M of HSR(Full operation)
Associated Business(Retail, advertising,
etc.)
Controlling technical aspectRepayment of ODA Loan
for
Construction and
Procurement
Government Guarantee
Asset Leasing
Lease Fee Payment from Fare Box Revenue
Passengers
ServiceFare
Repayment of ODA Loan for Engineering
Services
Financial Institutions
Investors
Repayment
Dividend
Availability PaymentSharing the remaining Fare Box Revenue with the
government
Customers
ServiceCharge
MoT (DGR )MoFDonor
Negotiating fare changes
Controlling technical aspect
Recurrentcost for the
new unit
TA Provider
Technical Support contract for O&M
Supporting Entity
Property Development
Customers
ServiceCharge
New unit of HSR(HSR-A)
PMU
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JICA Study Team
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
16
Players Function/Action
DGR Approving technical standards prepared by HSR-A
(approval only, actual enforcement will be done by HSR-A)Stage 1,2,3
HSR Authority(HSR-A)
Developing HSR technical standards and certification systems Enforcing the regulations and standards Supervising the project implementation (including O&M by SPV)
Stage 1Stage 2,3Stage 2,3
SOE
Getting loans for the HSR development from donor(s) Conducting the basic and detail design (with Engineering Services) Preparing the tender documents (with Engineering Services) Procuring and supervising contractors and suppliers (with Engineering Services) Training the company staff (with Engineering Services) Managing the assets after construction Receiving lease fee from SPV and repaying the loan to donor(s)
Stage 1Stage 1Stage 1Stage 2
Stage 1,2,3Stage 3Stage 3
SPV
Implementing the PPP portion (station building construction, pre-operation, etc.)
Training the O&M staff Operating and maintaining HSR Paying the lease fee to the SOE Carrying out the associated business
Stage 1, 2
Stage 1,2,3Stage 3Stage 3
Stage 2,3
Task Allocation
Stage 1: Engineering Services / Stage 2: Construction / Stage 3: Operation
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JICA Study Team
Risk ExposureRisk Allocation
State Govt. HSR-A SOE SPV
Preparation Stage
Establishment of HSR-A and SOE XX
Land Acquisition XX
Selection of suitable loans XX (coordination)
Stage 1: Engineering Services
Approval process of the project XX
Procurement of SPV XX
Development cost and consultingfees
XX XX XX
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
Risk Allocation (1/2)
17
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JICA Study Team
Risk ExposureRisk Allocation
State Govt. HSR-A SOE SPV
Stage 2: Construction
Land development (coordination) XX
Design fault XX XX
Cost overrun and delay (Support) XX XX
Commissioning XX XX
Matching (System integration) XX
Stage 3: Operation
Inspection before leasing XX
Availability of facilities XX
Performance of services XX
Ridership XX
Government policy change XX XX
End of concession transfer XX XX XX XX
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
Risk Allocation (2/2)
18
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JICA Study Team
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
19
Financing Plan
Financing
Soft loan
Commercial Bank Loan
Major part of initial investment
Private investment portion
Avoiding cash flow financing to cover the repayment
Setting less annual lease fees paid by SPV (operating company)
Cost Sharing among Key Players
Civil works cost Borne by the government and SOE
Less risks uncontrolled by SPV
HSR core systems NOT to be separated
Avoiding the system integration risk
(Delay in full operation due to integration of separated systems)
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JICA Study Team 20
Share (%) to Total
Project Cost
Sub-Total
Gov SOE SPV
9.67 45.23 5.89
PPP Model
16% 74% 10%
Gov SPV
3.96 56.83
Private Model
6% 94%
(Unit: trillion IDR)
Total Project Cost
FIRR (%) 0.97
EIRR (%) 12.50
14.93
Equity IRR (%)
Project IRR (%)
109.69
DSCR (Minimum) 1.52
22.65
60.79 60.79
Project Year: 50 year
Social discount rate: 12%
Economic Benefit: supplier benefit,
reduction of travel costs, reduction of
vehicle operation cost
Loan conditions
SOE: interest rate 0.1%, 40 years repayment period
(10 years grace period
(assuming conditions of STEP Loan)
SPV: interest rate 14%, 10 years repayment period
Debt equity ratio of SPV: 85 - 15
Land Acquisition- Land Acquisition 6.5%- Engineering Services
(ES-I) 1.2%- Management Cost 0.1%- VAT exemption 8.2%
Direct Lending from donor to SOE (excluding management cost)
12.50
< Findings >Private model NOT feasible
due to continuous cash flow financing
Need concessionary loanssuch as STEP to reduce the financial cost
Need availability payment to attract business entities to participation in the project
Cash Flow for Private Model
Deficit balance over almost all the project years
Accumulated Loss in 2035: -91,675 billion Rp.
NOT Feasible
0.18
Negative Net Cash Flow
4.90
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
Negative Net Cash Flow
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JICA Study Team
Note: These figures are just for reference in order to examine the cost sharing among the government, SOE and SPV.
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
Optimizing the cost sharing
21
Unit: billiion IDR
Breakdown Gov SOE SPV Gov SOE SPV Gov SOE SPV Gov SOE SPV
Embankment 2,114 2,114 2,114 2,114
Cutting 766 766 766 766
U type Retaining Wall 167 167 167 167
Viaduct (Regular Bridge) 8,178 8,178 8,178 8,178
Bridge 419 419 419 419
Tunnel (Mountain Tunneling) 5,266 5,266 5,266 5,266
Shield Tunnel 6,402 6,402 6,402 6,402
Cut and Cover 881 881 881 881
Transverse 422 422 422 422
Service Road 358 358 358 358
Environmental Program 165 165 165 165
Sub-Total 0 25,138 0 0 25,138 0 0 16,959 8,178 0 16,959 8,178
Disaster Prevention Equipment 196 196 196 196
Track Works 3,193 3,193 3,193 3,193
Station Works 1,371 1,371 1,371 1,371
Depot/ Workshop 3,611 1,269 2,342 3,611 3,611
Electric Facility 5,584 5,584 5,584 5,584
System/Automatic Fare Collection 339 339 339 339
Signaling and Telecommunications Facility 3,535 3,535 3,535 3,535
Rolling Stock 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,490
Maintenance Equipment 216 216 216 216
Preparation for Operation 196 196 196 196
(1) Construction/Procurement Cost 0 41,550 5,317 0 39,354 7,513 0 36,907 9,961 0 33,100 13,767
(2) Land Acquisition Cost 3,962 3,962 3,962 3,962
(3) Consulting Service Cost 680 1,397 266 680 1,288 376 680 1,575 89 680 1,384 279
(4) Management Cost 68 139 27 68 129 38 68 157 9 68 138 28
(5) Contingency 34 2,147 279 34 2,032 394 34 1,924 502 34 1,724 702
(6) Value-added Taxes 4,921 4,921 4,921 4,921
9,665 45,233 5,889 9,665 42,803 8,321 9,665 40,563 10,561 9,665 36,347 14,777
16% 74% 10% 16% 70% 14% 16% 67% 17% 16% 60% 24%
Item
Pattern 1 (Base Case) Pattern 2 Pattern 3 Pattern 4
Co
nst
ructi
on
/ P
rocu
rem
en
t C
ost
Civ
il W
ork
s
Total Project Cost
Percentage to Total Project Cost
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JICA Study Team
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
22
Optimizing the cost sharing
Engineering Services
Construction & Others
Land Acquisition
VAT
Item Gov SOE SPV
3.96
4.94
9.67 45.23 5.89
5.8945.23
Base Case
(16%) (74%) (10%)
Gov SOE SPV
3.96
4.94
9.67 42.80 8.32
0.06 8.3242.80
Pattern 2
(16%) (70%) (14%)
Gov SOE SPV
3.96
4.94
9.67 40.56 10.56
0.06 10.5640.56
Pattern 3
(16%) (67%) (17%)
Gov SOE SPV
3.96
4.94
9.67 36.34 14.78
0.06 14.7836.34
Pattern 4
(16%) (60%) (24%)
VAT: Exemption by the Government
(Unit: trillion IDR)
0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
Financing
TotalPercentage to
total project cost
L-ES
GB
L-ES: ODA loan for engineering services GB: Government budget for other partL-C: ODA loan for construction OB: Own budget for management costE: Equity from investors CBL: Commercial bank loan for debt portion
L-C
OB
CBL
E
L-ES
GB
L-C
OB
CBL
E
L-ES
GB
L-C
OB
CBL
E
L-ES
GB
L-C
OB
CBL
E
60.79 60.79 60.79 60.79
0.06
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JICA Study Team 23
Optimizing the cost sharing
FIRR (%)
Equity IRR (%)
Project IRR (%)
Item Gov SOE SPV
109.69
Base Case
Gov SOE SPV
62.80
Pattern 2
Gov SOE SPV
24.71
Pattern 3
Gov SOE SPV
19.08
Pattern 4
0.97
EIRR (%) 12.50
14.93 0.97 12.35 0.98 9.91 0.97 8.69
DSCR (Minimum)
17.36 13.13 10.08
1.11 -1.701.52
22.65
0.76
Debt : Equity = 85 : 15
Economic and Financial Analysis (PPP Model)
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JICA Study Team
BLANK
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JICA Study Team
Overall Study Summary
24
Travel Time: 37minutes between Jakarta and Bandung Route: 140 km between Jakarta Gedebage with 5 stations at opening Train Operations: 12 car trains (Capacity 925 pax.) Passengers: 44,000 pax./day (2020) Fare (Jakarta Bandung ): Rp 200,000 Decline of Road Traffic: 30% in 2020, and 58% in 2030
(Jakarta - Bandung OD pair, if no road construction is made) Multiplier Effect: Almost double of initial construction cost
and 35,000 new employment creation Land Acquisition: 31ha of irrigated paddy field and 32ha of forest Project Cost: US$ 6,223 million Project Scheme: Public sector-led project funded its major part of initial
investment with; Concessional interest rate, and Ultra-long term maturity (e.g. 40 years)
EIRR: 12.50% (beyond Social benchmark of 12%) FIRR of SPV: 14.93% to 8.69% (SPV cost sharing: 10% to 24%)
FIRR of SOE: 0.97% to 0.98% (SOE cost sharing: 60% to 74%)
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JICA Study Team
Phase I Study Conclusions
25
1. HSR Jakarta Surabaya is necessary Accelerating and spreading high economic and social development by
reducing regional gaps among major cities Introducing an energy- and environment-friendly fast public transportation
mean compared to others
2. Jakarta Bandung is recommended as Priority 1st Phase Section As the first section with a high potential considering funding, managing
railway ability and demand Suitable for intensified technology transfer of HSR operation know-how and
technology
3. Introducing Japanese HSR is relevant and appropriate Safety at most importance - Japan having no passenger fatalities and even no
injuries history over 50 years Technically most advanced - rich measures for earthquakes, steep gradient,
humidity and small tunnel cross section technology. Reliable and Punctual Service - by highly reputed Series E5 (Max.320km/h)
with 300km/h at the beginning of operation
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JICA Study Team
1. HSR Route to be Registered in Spatial Plans TOD plan at HSR station considering transfer to/from feeder services
and access to roads To regulate land use alongside the alignment To relax Floor to space index around stations
2. HSR Project to Start NOW Long preparation period is required to make legislations and regulations Rapid urbanization will make it difficult to conduct land acquisition of
suitable route
3. Land Acquisition to be Conducted in Quick Manner Compensation generated exclusively by Public Projects - Underground-
pass, Reduction of income tax, etc Compulsory Land Acquisition Law - Enactment and enforcement
Recommendations & Way Forward 1/2
26
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JICA Study Team
Recommendations & Way Forward 2/2
27
4. PPP Project Enabling Framework to be well Introduced Improvement of PPP regulations on government support to ridership risk
(provision of availability payment) Direct lending allowed to SOEs for Infrastructure Projects
5. Institutional Building for HSR to be Conducted Soon HSR-A for technology and safety: Basic specification, Pre-Opening
processes, Drivers license, Safety and investigation SOE Establishment for development of HSR infrastructure and facilities
6. Capacity Building for HSR-A and SOE to be done accordingly HSR-A: Technical assistance to develop technical regulations and
standards and certification systems SOE: Engineering services to support technical aspects of HSR
7. Possible New and Innovative Financing Tools to be Explored Possible financing sources in future Partial Risk Guarantee, REIT, LVC,
Town Planning Scheme and Station Area Development
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JICA Study Team
Conventional Financing Menu
Partial Risk Guarantee Private Sector Bank Loan rather short for
Infrastructure Finance World Bank & JBIC Offering Partial Risk
Guarantee beyond the period Private Sector Bank can assume
Innovative Financial Menu
From Japan (possibility)To Public Portion JICA ODA (Untied, STEP Loan)To Private Portion JICA PSIF Equity/Loan JBIC Export, Investment Loan JOIN Equity Investment Japanese Bank Infra Finance
From Indonesia PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (IIF)
Equity/Lending IIFF Lending - PT SMI with Partners (e.g. SMBC,
MUFG) PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (IIGF)
Guarantee Municipal Bond Issue
Real Estate Investment Trust(REIT)/Infrastructure Investment Trust(InvIT) listed to stock exchange, a perpetual certificate
Case: Private Sector Finance with Partial Risk Gurantee
Construction Period O&M Period
Loan Disbursement Loan Repayment Partial Risk Guarantee
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Case: ODA LOAN + REIT (10 years of grace)
Construction Period O&M Period
Loan Disbursement Grace Period Loan Repayment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
REIT
Possible Financing Resources in Future
28
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JICA Study Team 29
Land Value Capture Financing Financing Mechanism Capturing Future
Land Value Monetizing and Facilitating Infra / Urban
Development Implementation Well developed in USA, Japan and India
New Way of Financial Resources Suitable for PPP Projects Attractive to both Public and Private Sector Development-based LVC and Tax-based LVC
(1) Town Planning Scheme (TPS) No land acquisition necessary, but Local municipalities, railway station owners and
land owners are invited
(2) Station Development HSR/Railway Stations are not only Entry /
Departing Points for Passengers. Stations Facilities for Passengers but also
Visitors to Stations
HSR Impact to Regional Growth
Source: Shinkansens Local Impact, 2010, Christopher Hood, Oxford Univ.
Enhancing business
opportunities of local
companies
Possible Financing Resources in Future
Cities with
HSR Stations
National
Average
Population Growth
(1975 - 1995)32% 12%
Company Number Growth
(1975 - 1991)46% 21%
Local Gov't Receipt Growth
(1980 - 1993)155% 110%
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JICA Study Team 30
Groundbreaking
Implementation Schedule (Conservative Case)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Responsible Entity
(1) Policy and Legal (Enabling) Framework
Amendment of law for direct lending to SOE MoF
Improvement of PPP regulations for Availability Payment MoF, Bappenas
Development of presidential decree on HSR-A & SOE establishment MoT, MoF, MoBUMN
(2) Institutional Building
Preparing for establishment of HSR-A MoT
Development of technical regulations and standards of HSR HSR-A
Preparing for establishment of SOE (Development Company) MoT
(3) Capacity Building
For government officials on HSR development
(legal, technical, safety, etc.)Coordination by CMEA
For HSR-A on technical regulations and standards and supervision
of development and operationHSR-A
For SOE (development company) on design,
procurement and supervision of construction worksSOE
For operation company (Training in the classroom & On-Site) SPV
(4) Possible New (and Innovative) Financial Tools
Consideration of possible financial resources in future Coordination by CMEA
Detail design (Project Implementation with PPP) Management by SOE
Tendering process Management by SOE
Construction works, rolling stock procurement and pre-operation Supervised by SOE
Phase II Study Donor & Consultant
[ Engineering Services (ES) ] Donor & ConsultantES - I
ES - II
Establishment
Establishment
Inauguration
On-Site
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JICA Study Team 31
Ground Breaking2019
Go Sign by Government of Indonesia
Implementation Schedule (Accelerated Case)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Responsible Entity
(1) Policy and Legal (Enabling) Framework
Amendment of law for direct lending to SOE MoF
Improvement of PPP regulations for Availability Payment MoF, Bappenas
Development of presidential decree on HSR-A & SOE establishment MoT, MoF, MoBUMN
(2) Institutional Building
Preparing for establishment of HSR-A MoT
Development of technical regulations and standards of HSR HSR-A
Preparing for establishment of SOE (Development Company) MoT
(3) Capacity Building
For government officials on HSR development
(legal, technical, safety, etc.)Coordination by CMEA
For HSR-A on technical regulations and standards and supervision
of development and operationHSR-A
For SOE (development company) on design,
procurement and supervision of construction worksSOE
For operation company (Training in the classroom & On-Site) SPV
(4) Possible New (and Innovative) Financial Tools
Consideration of possible financial resources in future Coordination by CMEA
Detail design (Project Implementation with PPP) Management by SOE
Tendering process Management by SOE
Construction works, rolling stock procurement and pre-operation Supervised by SOE
Phase II Study Donor & Consultant
[ Engineering Services (ES) ] Donor & ConsultantES - I
ES - II
Establishment
Establishment
Inauguration
On-Site
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JICA Study Team
Terima Kasih
32
HSR Transportation capacity corresponds to 10 lanes toll road
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JICA Study Team 33
APPENDIX
Concept of Transport NetworkWith
High Speed Railway Development
TOD (Transit Oriented Development) is recommended
centering on the new HSR stations.
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JICA Study Team
DKI Jakarta
34
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JICA Study Team
Bekasi
35
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JICA Study Team
Cikarang
36
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JICA Study Team
Bandung and Gedebage
37