STUDI IDENTIFIKASI KETAHANAN Tabel 3.3. Produksi Kedelai Nasional ... Tabel 5.1. Indeks Suhu dan...

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Transcript of STUDI IDENTIFIKASI KETAHANAN Tabel 3.3. Produksi Kedelai Nasional ... Tabel 5.1. Indeks Suhu dan...

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STUDI IDENTIFIKASI KETAHANAN PANGAN DAN PREFERENSI KONSUMEN TERHADAP KONSUMSI BAHAN PANGAN POKOK DAGING SAPI Dalam Upaya Mengembangkan Naskah Kebijakan Sebagai Masukan pada

RPJMN 2015 - 2019

KEMENTERIAN PPN/BAPPENAS DIREKTORAT PANGAN DAN PERTANIAN

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DAFTAR ISI

DAFTAR ISI ................................................................................................................................. 2

DAFTAR TABEL .......................................................................................................................... 4

DAFTAR GAMBAR ...................................................................................................................... 7

BAB 1. PENDAHULUAN .......................................................................................................... 9

1.1. Latar Belakang ............................................................................................................ 9

1.2. Tujuan ...................................................................................................................... 10

1.3. Manfaat .................................................................................................................... 11

1.4. Ruang Lingkup Materi .............................................................................................. 11

BAB 2. KERANGKA PENELITIAN ........................................................................................... 13

2.1. Alur Kerangka Berfikir .............................................................................................. 13

2.1.1. Identifikasi Permasalahan ........................................................................................ 13

2.2. Hipotesis Penelitian ................................................................................................. 14

2.2.1. Loop Kesetimbangan................................................................................................ 16

2.2.2. Loop Penguatan (Reinforcing loop) ......................................................................... 16

BAB 3. METODOLOGI PENELITIAN ....................................................................................... 18

3.1. Pendekatan dan Jenis Penelitian ............................................................................. 18

3.2. Prosedur Penelitian .................................................................................................. 18

3.3. Populasi dan Sampel ................................................................................................ 19

3.4. Teknik Pengumpulan Data ....................................................................................... 20

3.5. Teknik Pengolahan dan Analisa Data ....................................................................... 20

3.6. Lokasi Penelitian ...................................................................................................... 21

3.6.1. Tingkat Propinsi........................................................................................................ 21

3.6.2. Tingkat Kabupaten ................................................................................................... 24

3.7. Operasionalisasi Konsep .......................................................................................... 40

3.7.1. Supply Side ............................................................................................................... 40

3.7.2. Demand Side ............................................................................................................ 40

BAB 4. PENGERTIAN, KARAKTERISTIK DAN KONDISI UMUM KETAHANAN PANGAN ......... 42

4.1. Pengertian Ketahanan Pangan ................................................................................. 42

4.2. Kondisi Umum Bahan Pangan Pokok ....................................................................... 46

4.2.1. Kondisi Umum Tata Niaga Sapi dan Daging Sapi ..................................................... 48

4.2.2. Kondisi Umum Pelaku Usaha ................................................................................... 50

4.2.3. Kondisi Umum Pembentukan Harga ........................................................................ 63

4.2.4. Kondisi Umum Preferensi dan Pola Konsumsi ......................................................... 66

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BAB 5. HASIL PENELITIAN .................................................................................................... 67

5.1. Kapabilitas Strategis Produksi Daging Sapi .............................................................. 67

5.1.1. Isu Pergeseran Musim dan Fluktuasi Curah Hujan terhadap Kapabilitas Strategis

Produksi Daging Sapi ................................................................................................ 67

5.1.2. Produktifitas Sapi Potong Sebagai Variabel Supply Daging Sapi ............................. 70

5.1.3. Pondasi Dasar Sistem Produk Daging Sapi ............................................................... 78

5.2. Perkiraan Permintaan Daging Sapi Nasional Rumah Tangga dan Preferensi

Konsumsi Terhadap Kualitas Pangan Daging Sapi ................................................... 83

5.2.1. Perkiraan Demand Konsumsi Daging Sapi Rumah Tangga ...................................... 83

5.2.2. Preferensi Konsumsi terhadap Kualitas Pangan Daging Sapi dan Prediksi Kebutuhan

Kualitas Pangan Rumah Tangga Ekonomi Menengah Atas dalam 5 Tahun

Mendatang ............................................................................................................... 85

5.3. Perkiraan Permintaan Daging Sapi Nasional untuk Industri Berdasarkan Kategori

Potongan Daging Sapi .............................................................................................. 91

5.4. Rantai Pasokan Sebagai Alur Respon Persediaan dan Respon Produksi ................. 95

5.4.1. Mekanisme Pembentukan Harga Jual Beli Daging Sapi Lokal dan Impor ................ 97

5.4.2. Persepsi terhadap Kemandirian dan Stabilitas Pasokan Daging Sapi .................... 101

5.4.3. Arahan Penerapan Rantai Tata Niaga Bahan Pangan Pokok/ Supply Chain

Management Normatif berdasar Faktual .............................................................. 106

BAB 6. KESIMPULAN DAN REKOMENDASI ........................................................................ 111

6.1. Kesimpulan ............................................................................................................. 111

6.2. Rekomendasi untuk RPJMN 2015 2019 .............................................................. 116

6.2.1. Arah Kebijakan ....................................................................................................... 116

6.2.2. Strategi dan Fokus Prioritas ................................................................................... 118

6.2.3. Sasaran dan Indikator ............................................................................................ 122

DAFTAR PUSTAKA ................................................................................................................. 123

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DAFTAR TABEL

Tabel 3.1. Kategori Responden Penelitian ...................................................................... 19

Tabel 3.2. Produksi Padi Nasional ................................................................................... 21

Tabel 3.3. Produksi Kedelai Nasional .............................................................................. 22

Tabel 3.4. Produksi Jagung Nasional ............................................................................... 22

Tabel 3.5. Produksi Bawang Merah Nasional ................................................................. 22

Tabel 3.6. Produksi Cabai Nasional ................................................................................. 23

Tabel 3.7. Produksi Cabai Rawit Nasional ....................................................................... 23

Tabel 3.8. Produksi Tebu Nasional .................................................................................. 23

Tabel 3.9. Produksi Kelapa Sawit/CPO Nasional ............................................................. 24

Tabel 3.10. Produksi Sapi Nasional ................................................................................... 24

Tabel 3.11. Produksi Padi Jawa Barat ............................................................................... 25

Tabel 3.12. Produksi Padi Jawa Timur ............................................................................... 25

Tabel 3.13. Produksi Padi Jawa Tengah ............................................................................ 25

Tabel 3.14. Produksi Padi Sulawesi Selatan ...................................................................... 26

Tabel 3.15. Produksi Padi Sumetera Utara ....................................................................... 26

Tabel 3.16. Produksi Kedelai Jawa Timur .......................................................................... 26

Tabel 3.17. Produksi Kedelai Jawa Tengah ....................................................................... 27

Tabel 3.18. Produksi Kedelai NTB ............................................................................