Sistem Keuangan Inklusif 01

Oleh:

Oleh:

DR.AriesMuftie,SE.,SH.,MH.

Wh

enyou

rebro

ke

go

and

get

alo

anTak

eou

tan

oth

erm

ort

gag

eon

you

rh

om

eC

on

soli

dat

eso

you

can

affo

rdTo

go

and

spen

dso

me

more

wh

en

Gre

edin

ess

&co

nsu

mer

ism

:Sh

ania

Tw

ain

’sen

ciet

y

Ka

Ch

ing

To

go

and

spen

dso

me

more

wh

enY

ou

get

bore

d

All

we

ever

wan

tis

more

Alo

tm

ore

than

we

had

bef

ore

So

tak

em

eto

the

nea

rest

store

We

live

ina

gre

edy

litt

lew

orl

dT

hat

teac

hes

ever

yli

ttle

boy

and

gir

lTo

earn

as

mu

chas

they

can

poss

ibly

Th

entu

rnar

ou

nd

and

Sp

end

itfo

oli

shly

So

tak

em

eto

the

nea

rest

store

[rep

eat

choru

s]

Let

ssw

ing

Di

di

kt

py

Wev

ecr

eate

du

sa

cred

itca

rdm

ess

We

spen

dth

em

on

eyth

atw

ed

on

tp

oss

ess

Ou

rre

lig

ion

isto

go

and

blo

wit

all

So

its

shop

pin

ever

ysu

nd

ayat

the

mal

l

Dig

dee

per

inyou

rp

ock

etO

h,y

eah

,h

aC

om

eon

Ikn

ow

you

ve

got

itD

igd

eep

erin

you

rw

all

etO

h

All

we

ever

wan

tis

more

Alo

tm

ore

than

we

had

bef

ore

So

tak

em

eto

the

nea

rest

store

[ch

oru

s:]

All

we

ever

wan

tis

more

Alo

tm

ore

than

we

had

bef

ore

So

tak

em

eto

the

nea

rest

store

[h

][

]C

anyou

hea

rit

rin

gIt

mak

esyou

wan

na

sin

gIt

ssu

cha

bea

uti

fulth

ing

ka

chin

g!

Lots

of

dia

mon

dri

ng

sT

he

hap

pin

ess

itbri

ng

s

[rep

eat

choru

s]

Can

you

hea

rit

rin

gIt

mak

esyou

wan

na

sin

gY

ou

llli

ve

lik

ea

kin

g

1

eap

pi

ei

ig

You

llli

ve

lik

ea

kin

gW

ith

lots

of

mon

eyan

dth

ing

s

Wit

hlo

tsof

mon

eyan

dth

ing

sK

ach

ing!

1

Agenda

Agenda

1LatarBelakang

a.

KrisisGlobal

b.

DampakterhadapIndonesia

c.EthicalEconomic(M

aqasidalSharia)

II

(q

)

Karakteristik&ProspekEkonomidiIndonesia

a.

Seja

rah

b.

Eco

no

mi &

Bis

nis

III

c.

Sis

tem

Keu

an

gan

Inklu

sif

ata

uC

reati

ve M

icro

no

mic

s

ApaYangHarusKitaLakukan?

Ekspektasi

Ekspektasi

IV

2

I.L

ATA

R B

EL

AK

AN

G

a.

Glo

bal

Cri

sis

I. L

ata

rB

ela

ka

ng

4

Glo

bal

Eco

nom

icSlo

wd

ow

nSou

rce:

IMF,

Nov

2008,

BSM

sou

rce

2

a.G

lobal

Cri

sis

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

Seb

agia

nbes

arh

uta

ng

AS

ber

asal

dar

ilu

arA

S,se

hin

gg

ak

ii

diA

Sk

jl

kk

risi

sd

iA

Sak

an

men

jala

rk

en

egar

an

egar

ala

in(k

red

itor)

…globalfinancialsystemhitbyaseverecreditcrunch(was)triggeredinitiallybythe

collapseintheUnitedStatesofthesubprimemortgagemarket…

IMFSurvey,13October2008

5

Link:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/NEW101308A.htm

Source:BSMResearch

3

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

a.GlobalCrisis

AnalistOpinion

AccordingJack&SuzyWelch:

Len

der

s:fo

rta

kin

gad

van

tage

ofu

nqu

alif

ied

and

vu

lner

able

hom

ebu

yer

sH

ome

buyer

s:fo

rget

tin

gov

erth

ehea

ds

Whit

eH

ouse

:fo

rle

ttin

gba

nki

ng

regu

lati

ons

beco

me

too

loos

eF

inan

ceex

ecu

tives

:fo

rse

llin

gpro

du

cts

they

did

n’t

un

der

stan

dw

hil

een

joyin

gou

tsiz

edpro

fits

Mar

kto

mar

ket

acco

un

tin

g:f

orac

cele

rati

ng

dow

ntu

rnM

ark

tom

arke

tac

cou

nti

ng:f

orac

cele

rati

ng

dow

ntu

rnR

atin

gag

enci

es:fo

rm

isch

arac

teri

zin

gpap

erS

hor

tse

llin

ghed

ge

fun

ds:

for

bett

ing

ondoo

msd

ayT

he

tran

sfor

mat

ion

ofin

ves

tmen

tba

nks

from

pri

vat

epar

tner

ship

sin

topu

blic

lytr

aded

com

pan

ies

Source:Jack

,Suzy

Welch(2008,S

eptember25).BusinessWeek

Link:

http

://w

ww

.busi

nes

swee

k.co

m/m

agaz

ine/

conte

nt/

08_4

0/b

4102084

769835.h

tm

Sebagianbesaralasanberkaitandenganaspek

6

gg

pREGULASI,SPEKULASI,&MANAJEMENRISIKO

Source:BSMResearch

4

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

a.GlobalCrisis

Consumerism

Consumerism

StimulusFactor

Greediness

CR

ISIS

CR

ISIS

Regula

tion

Regula

tion

(Greedy&

Corrupt)

Sp

ecu

latio

nS

pe

cu

latio

nS

pe

cu

latio

nS

pe

cu

latio

n

7Source:BSMResearch

5

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

a.GlobalCrisis

REGULATIONASPECT

TheFedInterest

GrowthCreditvsIncome

SOURCE:TheWashingtonPost

Link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp

/buie/daily/ahi/fedfud111004htl

CreditRatiotoGDP

srv/business/daily/graphics/fedfund_111004.html

Kebijakansukubungarendah(sejak2001)memicu

pertumbuhankredit(pemerintah,swasta,dan

individu).Sementara,pertumbuhanpendapatan

8

individu).Sementara,pertumbuhanpendapatan

tidak

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

a.GlobalCrisis

REGULATIONASPECT

Kreditmacetsubprime

mortgagetertinggi

Kreditperumahanberisikotinggi(subprime

9

pgg

pmortgage)tumbuhterlalucepat,bersamaandengan

tingginyakreditmacetdisektortsb.

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

a.GlobalCrisis

PRACONDITION:SPECULATION

Period 2

000-2

008

Deposits G

rew

$ 3

,000B

n!

Avera

ge

gro

wth

$375B

n/y

r

Period 2

000-2

008

Deposits G

rew

$ 3

,000B

n!

Avera

ge

gro

wth

$375B

n/y

rA

vera

ge

gro

wth

-$375B

n/y

r

10.4

% C

AG

R!!

Period 1

996-2

000

Deposits G

rew

$ 7

00B

n…

Ath

$175B

/

Avera

ge

gro

wth

-$375B

n/y

r

10.4

% C

AG

R!!

Period 1

996-2

000

Deposits G

rew

$ 7

00B

n…

Ath

$175B

/A

vera

ge g

row

th -

$175B

n/y

r

5.1

7%

CA

GR

Avera

ge g

row

th -

$175B

n/y

r

5.1

7%

CA

GR

Implie

s p

rolif

ic in

flux o

f fu

nds into

US

in last 8 y

ears

.

Per A

naly

sis

, sourc

e o

f fu

nds u

nknow

n.

We k

now

how

it w

as u

tiliz

ed (

sub-p

rim

e w

as o

ne o

f th

e c

ard

s d

ealt)

Implie

s p

rolif

ic in

flux o

f fu

nds into

US

in last 8 y

ears

.

Per A

naly

sis

, sourc

e o

f fu

nds u

nknow

n.

We k

now

how

it w

as u

tiliz

ed (

sub-p

rim

e w

as o

ne o

f th

e c

ard

s d

ealt)

10

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2007/0507/02banfin.cfm

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

a.GlobalCrisis

PRACONDITION:SPECULATION

Sumber:FDIC

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/regional/ro20062q/n

a/images/OutlookChart05.gif

PortofolioderivatifbankdiAS

Sumber:http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Components_of_the_United_States_money_supply.svg

Dikiikit

ktiit

kli

ki

PorsiM1menurun

11

Diyakini,kegiatanaktivitasspekulasisemakin

tinggidenganmenurunnyaporsiM1

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

a.GlobalCrisis

PRACONDITION:CONSUMERISM

Kreditmacet

Savingmenurun

drastis

Kreditmacet

meningkat

http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/risk/2006_02/imgs/Chart24.gif

PersonalsavingwargaAmerikamenurun:

Rhd

jlkh

12

•Rentanterhadap

gejolakharga

•R

epay

men

tca

pac

itymenurun,

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

a.GlobalCrisis

PRACONDITION:CONSUMERISM

Kreditmacet

Kreditmacet

meningkat

Penyalurankredit

bank

Dampakkegagalankredit

subp

rim

em

ortg

agelebih

besarkarenabankmenempatkandanadisurat

berhargayangmemilikiunder

lyin

gtr

ansa

ctio

nsampai

13

berhargayangmemilikiunder

lyin

gtr

ansa

ctio

nsampai

yangtidak

Sumber:FDIC

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/regional/ro20062q/n

a/images/OutlookChart05.gif

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

a.GlobalCrisis

GREEDY FDIC(FederalDepositInsuranceCorporation)regardingfailureofFirstStateBank:

“Theban

kshistoricallystrongearningsperform

ance

has

beenim

pactedby

deteriorationin

theloan

portfolioan

drisingoverheadexpen

ses.Net

incomeis

overstated

by$5

00,000

dueto

aninad

equateAllowan

ceforLoan

andLease

Losses,

whichhas

notincreaseddespitesignifican

tloan

growth.A

fter

mak

ingtherequired

provision,R

eturn

onAssets(R

OA)declines

to0.87

%from

1.14

%as

reported

onthe

Decem

ber

31,200

4,UBPR.T

hisiswellbelow

thepeergroupratioof1.26

%.

Sumber:h

ttp://w

ww.fdic.gov/reg

ulations/resources/directors_colleg

e/sfcb/roe.htm

l

(08/03

/200

5)

Leh

man

BrothersChairm

anan

dCEO

RichardFuld

Jr.m

ade$3

4millionin

2007

ofBONUS.

Leh

man

(OTC:LEHMQ)filedforChap

ter11

Ban

kruptcyprotectionearlierthismonth.F

uld

also

sold

nearlyahalfbillion–$

490million–from

sellingLEH

stock

;Note:L

ehman

’sAsset

Eqiv.R

p6.39

0T

Sumber:http://bigpicture.typep

ad.com/commen

ts/2008/09/ceo

claw

backpr.htm

l

14Source:BSM

Research

I. B

ack G

rou

nd

b.DampakterhadapIndonesia

Eu

rop

ean

Cri

sis

an

d G

lob

al

Eco

no

mic

Eu

rop

ean

Cri

sis

an

d G

lob

al

Eco

no

mic

TR

AD

E A

ND

CO

MM

OD

ITY

PR

ICE

SH

OC

KS

Fin

an

cia

l S

ecto

rF

inan

cia

l S

ecto

rTra

din

g a

nd

Pri

cin

g P

rim

ary

Co

mm

od

ity

Tra

din

g a

nd

Pri

cin

g P

rim

ary

Co

mm

od

ity

Fu

nd

am

en

talE

co

no

my

Fu

nd

am

en

talE

co

no

my

Do

me

stic P

olic

y R

esp

on

dD

om

estic P

olic

y R

esp

on

d

It

Sti

tI

tS

tit

Inv

es

tor

Se

nti

me

nt

Inv

es

tor

Se

nti

me

nt

Imp

act

to In

do

nesia

nIm

pact

to In

do

nesia

n

6

I. B

ack G

rou

nd


Slowdown

ofglobal

growth

Decliningcommodity

prices

Exportdecline

Importremainstrongdueto

excessaggregateddemand

Currentaccount

Cuetaccout

deficit

1.FDIweak

2.BOPwilldecline

3.Currencywillbe

depreciated

depreciated

Rupiahakanterdepresiasi

16

I. B

ack G

rou

nd


EuropeanCrisisContributionandIndonesianGlobalBondInvestor

Source:ISEI,AnggitoAbimanyu


I. B

ack G

rou

nd

NamunKomposisiInvestordiPasarModal

(Asing&Lokal)TidakTerlaluBerubah

2011

39%

39%

Asing

Lokal

2010

61%

37%

63%


Diki

jdiObli

iR

ih


I. B

ack G

rou

nd

DemikianjugadiObligasiRupiah....


Sistem Keuangan Inklusif 01

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