REDD REDD dandanREDD Plus REDD Plus ......1.5% 1 Bogor, 23 Oktober 2009 REDD REDD dandanREDD Plus...

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Bogor, 23 Oktober 2009

REDD REDD dandan REDD Plus REDD Plus

DalamDalam StrukturStruktur

NegosiasiNegosiasi Global Global

Doddy S. SukadriDewan Nasional

Perubahan Iklim ( DNPI)

Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI

REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen

Outline Outline

Struktur Negosiasi Global

Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita ?

Pandangan ke depan: REDD dan REDD Plus

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Some energy is radiated back

into space by the earth in

the form of infrared waves

Some energy is radiated back

into space by the earth in

the form of infrared waves

Some of this outgoing

infrared radiation is

trapped by the earth’s

atmosfir and warms it

Some of this outgoing

infrared radiation is

trapped by the earth’s

atmosfir and warms it

Most of this radiation

is absorbed by the

Earth and warms it

Most of this radiation

is absorbed by the

Earth and warms it

Skema terjadinya pemanasan global dan

perubahan iklim di dunia

Kegiatan manusia

menjadi penyebab utama pemanasan global

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PerkiraanPerkiraan emisiemisi karbonkarbon duniadunia sampaisampai

tahuntahun 21002100

•IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) range from 0 to 250 GT / y

•E = P*A*Twhere

P = Population

A = GDP / cap;

T = EMI * ENI;

EMI = Emission intensity of energy;

ENI = Energy intensity of the economy (Energy

used per unit of GDP)

SelamaSelama 650 650 tahuntahun, , emisiemisi karbonkarbon tidaktidak pernahpernahsetinggisetinggi iniini

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KonsentrasiKonsentrasi karbonkarbon didi atmosfiratmosfir dandan ratarata--rata rata temperaturtemperatur selamaselama 1000 1000 tahuntahun terakhirterakhir

1 Scientists believe that reducing global CO2e emissions to the 450 ppm level provides a 40-60% chance of preventing global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius.

2 Business as Usual

Perubahan relative

dibanding BAU 1, %29 20

Change relative to

BAU2, %-9 -29

SOURCE: IPCC, McKinsey & Company Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy, 2009

Sampai 2030 emisi GRK dunia perlu diturunkan untuk

mencapai 450 ppm

Global emission per

year (Gt CO2e)

BAU2

450 ppm with overshoot (peak at 510 ppm)

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1990 2000 2010 2020 20300

45

55

65

75

-17 -35

61

70

52

4744 35

-3

-50

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DewanDewan NasionalNasional PerubahanPerubahan IklimIklim

(DNPI) (DNPI) PeraturanPeraturan PresidenPresiden NomorNomor 46 /2008 46 /2008

ORGANIZATION MANDATES

PengurusPengurus HarianHarian DNPI DNPI

KetuaHarian

Mitigation Task Force

Members

Adaptation Task Force

Members

Finance Task Force

Members

Post Kyoto Task Force

Members

Tech. transfer

Task Force

Scientific based Task

Force

LULUCF Task Force

Marine

Task Force

Secretariat

Members Members Members Members

Para ketua dan anggota Kelompok Kerja terdiri dari para pihak utama, terdiri dari

unsur-unsur Pemerintah, LSM, Swasta, akademisi dan profesional.

Divisions

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Executive Secretary

International Cooperation

Communica-tion, Informa-

tion, and Education

Research and Capacity

Building

Clean Development Mechanism

Internal Relations and Legal Aspects

Finance and Administration

KoordinatorKoordinator kegiatankegiatan didi

bawahbawah SekretariatSekretariat

DNPIDNPI



Outline Outline




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COP-11995BerlinMandate

COP-41998

Buenos AiresPlan ofAction

COP-51999Bonn

COP-6 2000The Hague

COP-6 bis2001Bonn

Agreements

COP-72001

MarrakeshAccord

COP-92003Milan

A/R CDM

COP-31997

Kyoto Protocol

COP-21996GenevaMinisterialDeclaration

COP-102004

Buenos Aires Programof Work

COP-112005

MontrealMOP1AWG

COP-122006

Nairobi WorkProgram

COP-13Nusa DuaIndonesia

BALI ROADMAP

COP – 142008Poznan

COP – 152009

CopenhagenAGREED OUTCOME

COP-82002

New DelhiDeclaration

EmpatEmpat jalurjalur negosiasinegosiasi UNFCCCUNFCCC

AWG-LCA 6

•REDD

•Annex I

Commitments

•Adaptation

•TT and

Capacity

building

SBSTA 30

•REDD•CDM

Reform

•Adaptation

•Response

measures

SBI 30

•TT and

Capacity

building

•Adaptation

•Response

measures

AWG-KP8

•Annex I

Commitments

•CDM Reform

•Response

measures

Overlapping areas

UNFCCC = UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Kyoto Protocol (KP)COP

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G77+China (132)

AOSIS (48)

ASIAN

GRULAC

EIT

LDC (43)

AFRICAN

EU (27)

WEOG

Umbrella (9)

KelompokKelompok negaranegara dalamdalam negosiasinegosiasiperubahanperubahan iklimiklim

Shared vision for

cooperative action Technology

Transfer

Adaptation Mitigation

Finance

BALI ACTION

PLAN

EmpatEmpat pilarpilar utamautama visivisi bersamabersamaperubahanperubahan iklimiklim

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VisiVisi bersamabersama


REDD: Dari Montreal to Copenhagen

Outline Outline




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REDD: Dari Montreal REDD: Dari Montreal keke KopenhagenKopenhagen

Montreal : Proposal PNG dan Costa Rica on REDD

Bali Action Plan: Policy approaches and possible incentives

Copenhagen: Decision on the Future of REDD post 2012

2005

2007

2009

DEFORESTASI = konversi lahan berhutan menjadi tidak

berhutan karena kegiatan manusia

Skim insentif yang dikembangkan bagi masyarakat dan

negara untuk melindungi hutannya dari kegiatan2 yang akan

meningkatkan emisi karbon karena kegiatan deforestasi dan

degradasi hutan

DEGRADASI HUTAN = Kerusakan ekosistem hutan akibat hilangnya

sebagian tutupan hutan, kerapatan hutan, penurunan kualitas biodiversity

DEFORESTASI DAN DEGRADASI HUTAN MENGURANGI KEMAMPUAN HUTAN MENYERAP KARBON DI ATMOSFIR

SEHINGGA MENINGKATKAN EFEK GRK

ApaApaApaApa ituituituitu REDDREDDREDDREDD ? ? ? ?

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MengapaMengapaHarusHarusREDD ??REDD ??

REDD, REDD Plus REDD, REDD Plus dandan AlihAlih GunaGuna LahanLahan (LULUCF)(LULUCF)

SFM

REDD

Conservation ECS

Source: Pedroni (2009) in Murdiyarso (2009)

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Outline Outline




-60

-20

20

40

60

-160

-140

-120

-80

-100

200 400 600 800

Reduction potential2

MtCO2e per year

0

-40

2,4002,2002,0000 1,8001,6001,4001,2001,000

REDD Indonesia REDD berpotensi mengurangi emisi

karbon sampai 2.3 Gt per tahun sampai 2030

SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve

GeothermalREDD from

small holders

High efficiency appliances

Internal combustion engine

improvements in passenger

cars

Switching to LEDs

Water mgmt.

& rewetting

in peatlandsLarge hydro

REDD –

timber

extraction

REDD – intensive

plantations dryland

forestReforestation

1 Societal perspective implies utilizing a 4% discount rate

2. The width of each bar represents the volume of potential reduction. The height of each bar represents the cost to capture each reduction initiative

Societal perspective1, 2030

Including more than 150 levers

from forestry, agriculture,

peatland , transportation,

building and cement industry

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Diduga memberikan kontribusi lebih dari

50 % emisi karbon dunia

(dari proses dekomposisi)

SOURCE: Hooijer et al 2006; Wetlands International; Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve

100%

Indonesia Neg tropis

lainnya1

Sisanya

di dunia

Emisi karbon dari proses dekomposisi

58 24 18

Luas 5 5 90

• Walaupun luasnya hanya 10% dari lahan gambut di dunia, namun lebih 80% emisi

karbon dunia dari proses dekomposisi terjadi di wilayah tropis;

• Dari jumlah tersebut, lebih dari separuhnya terjadi di Indonesia.

1 Malaysia, Papua New Guinea; Democratic Republik of Congo, Brazil

2 Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, USA

Peat

fire

Decomposition

after drainage

Emisi lahan gambut disebabkan dekomposisi dan kebakaran

lahan yang telah terdegradasi. Pembukaan lahan gambut baru

akan meningkatkan emisi karbon dimasa depan

SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve

ILLUSTRATIVE

Pembukaanlahan gambutsaat ini

Pembukaanlahan gambutsaat ini

Di masadatang???Di masadatang???

Removal of biomass

above ground

(logging)

Decomposition

after drainage

Peat fire

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Note: The curve presents an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical GHG abatement measures below EUR 60 per tCO2e if each lever was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role different abatement measures and technologies will play. Assuming a 4% societal discount rate

6005003002001000

10

0

30

5

15

2020

25

1,200

15

11

7

Potensi biaya pengurangan emisiMtCO2e per year

44

1

1,100400 1,000900800700

6

Reducing deforestation and undertaking A/R could

potentially turn forestry sector to be the carbon sink by 2030

Sumber:: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve

REDD – small-

holder agriculture

Marginal land

afforestation

Forest

manage-

ment

Reforest-

ation

REDD –

timber

extraction

Cropland

afforest-

ation

REDD –

Intensive

plantation -

pulpwood

REDD –

Intensive

plantation –

palm oil

Perspektif sosial 2030

Preliminary finding

Pengurangan emisi karbon di Indonesia dapat dilakukan

dengan biaya relatif murahapabila dilakukan di sektor

kehutanan dan lahan gambut

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Possible scenario in forestry sector development

Sumber:: Min. of Forestry – Statistics 2000 and 2007; Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

• In a BAU

scenario’ a

constant

deforestation at

2000 to 2005

levels is assumed

• In an ‘abatement

scenario’, a

gradual limitation

of deforestation

and a massive

afforestation/

reforestation

effort will take

place

Chart Title

, 67.500005

, 120.100005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ax

is T

itle

Historical and future scenario of Indonesian forest area‘000 ha

Historical deforestation

BAU scenario

Abatement scenario

ILUSTRASI


REDD: Dari Montreal to Copenhagen

Outline Outline

Struktuir Negosiasi Global



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UsulanUsulan beberapabeberapa negaranegara untukuntuk

komitmenkomitmen pascapasca 2012 2012

1. “Copenhagen Agreement” (EU)

2. “Copenhagen Protocol” (Developed countries, but USA)

3. “Implementing Agreement” (USA)

4. Second period of commitment (China, South Africa, India, Brazil dan Saudi Arabia)

5. Legally binding instrument (Brazil and South Africa)

6. “COP Decision” (India and China)

7. “National Schedules” (Australia)

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� Recognize Bali Action Plan as a framework for

Copenhagen Agreed Outcome, including a shared

vision that will not only underline long-term

stabilization goal but also incorporate the four building

blocks (mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology

transfer);

� Recognize the need of contribution of all Parties to the

post-2012 framework and will actively participate on

the development of appropriate forms of NAMAs and

the MRV criteria for the finance and technology

support by developed countries

UsulanUsulan Indonesia Indonesia

PerlunyaPerlunya lima lima kejelasankejelasan politispolitis dalamdalam

negosiasinegosiasi perubahanperubahan iklimiklim global global �The Annex-1 target for both aggregate and individual

numbers

�Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Commitment and

Actions (NAMACs) of the developed countries vs the

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) for the

developing countries

�Financing clarity for adaptation and mitigation efforts in

developing countries

�Governance structures for taking care the financing and

technology transfer

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� Understanding the role of developed and developing countries in

tackling the climate change threats

� Understanding the CO2 emission from inside and outside of

forestry sectors, based on scientific arguments (for the medium

and long term emission reduction);

� Understanding REDD and REDD Plus, including pre-requisites

conditions, such as MRV and financing scheme.

� Understanding the policy and strategic options for carbon

emission reduction

MenjelangMenjelang KopenhagenKopenhagen : : SudahSudah siapkansiapkan kitakita??

IT IS ONLY FOURTY FIVE DAYS TO GO !!

Would there be any change in the climate change policy ?

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REDD REDD dandanREDD Plus REDD Plus ......1.5% 1 Bogor, 23 Oktober 2009 REDD REDD dandanREDD Plus...

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