Pipeline Risk Assessment by Ahmad Taufik

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Metal Performance Assessment Group Engineering Consulting and Training Services dan Rekayasa Pertambangan - Program Pasca Sarjana Institut Teknologi Bandung Pipeline Risk Assessment Ahmad Taufik

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handout untuk mempelajari pipeline risk assesment

Transcript of Pipeline Risk Assessment by Ahmad Taufik

Page 1: Pipeline Risk Assessment by Ahmad Taufik

Metal Performance Assessment GroupEngineering Consulting and Training Services

dan

Rekayasa Pertambangan - Program Pasca SarjanaInstitut Teknologi Bandung

Pipeline Risk Assessment

Ahmad Taufik

Page 2: Pipeline Risk Assessment by Ahmad Taufik

MENGAPA ADA RISK ?

1. Pipeline memiliki masalah dalam disain & konstruksi

2. Pipeline mengalirkan fluida berbahaya

3. Pipeline sudah dioperasikan untuk waktu yang cukup

lama (aging)

4. Adanya mekanisme kerusakan yang terjadi sehingga

pipa gagal (mis : akibat faktor lingkungan/korosi)

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Damage Mechanism & Failure Modes

1. Fatigue 2. Corrosion3. Brittle Fracture4. Buckling / Plastic Deformation5. Stress Corrosion Cracking6. Hydrogen Embrittlement

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The Origin of Failure

Design FaultyManufacture DefectConstruction DefectOperation MisconductMaintenance/AssemblingInspectionsNature

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1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

250

200

150

100

50

0

No. ofIncidentsFatalitiesProperty Damage($MM)

DOT Gas Distribution Incidents : 1986-99

Data statistik memperlihatkan bahwa risk dari pipeline dapat dikurangi, dikendalikan, atau diubah tetapi tidak dapat dihilangkan menjadi nol.

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28.4

5.5

5.5

58.7

0.9

0.9

33.3

5.6

3.7

54.6

2.8

0

20.9

5.2

3.7

65.7

4.5

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Other

Accidently Caused byOperator

Construcion/OperatingError

Damage from OutsideForces

External Corrosion

Internal Corrosion

1998 1997 1996

FAILURE DATA FOR PIPELINE (contoh di USA & Eropa)

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Risk = Probability of Failure x Consequences of Failure

Risk = LoF (t) x CoF (t)

Probability adalah peluang terjadinya sebuah kegagalan (0 ≤ p ≤ 100%). P = 0, kegagalan tidak mungkin terjadi, jika P = 1, kegagalan pasti terjadi.

Likelihood adalah deskripsi kualitatif dari probability dan frekwensi kegagalan

Safety adalah perlindungan terhadap publik, lingkungan dan kepemilikan, sedangkan Risk adalah ancaman terhadap pencapaian tujuan tersebut.

Hazard (“bahaya”) adalah karakteristik (atau sebuah kelompok karakteristik) yang berpotensi menghasilkan kerugian - loss (mis : flammability, toxicity, reactivity).

Pipeline Incident hasil dari satu atau lebih kejadian dalam urutan yang menyebabkanpipeline kehilangan integritas dan kehilangan isinya baik produk cair maupun gas.

DEFINISIRisk adalah produk dari peluang (likelihood / probability) kegagalan dan dampak nya (consequences) yang tidak diinginkan (accidental event).

Consequences menjelaskan akibat atau dampak (-) dari sebuah accidental event.

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KARAKTERISTIK RESIKO

1. Istilah “Risk” artinya kita tidak dapat menentukan secara tepat nilai atau besarnya sebab kedua faktor diatas (peluang kegagalan dan dampaknya) masih memiliki unsur ketidakpastian (uncertainty).

2. Risk memiliki dimensi yang beragam :a. Score (tanpa satuan, 344, 45, 6B, 1A, ….. )b. Jumlah kecelakaan/kematian per tahunc. Jumlah kerugian pertahun ($/yr), dsb.

3. Risk memiliki nilai relatif dan tidak dapat berdiri sendiri, jadi perhitungan risk membutuhkan konsistensi dalam metodologi

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DefineObjectives

SegmentIdentification

Data & InfoGathering

Likelihood ofFailure

Consequences ofFailure (Hazard)

Risk Estimation

AcceptableRisk?

Risk Mitigation

MaintainingRIsk Level

AcceptableProtection

- Performcance Improvement- Conditioning Monitoring

Feedback

Yes

No

Pipe

line

Ris

k A

sses

smen

t

Pipe

line

Ris

k M

anag

emen

t

Flow Chart untuk Pipeline Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment

Risk Management

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PipelineData

Design

Assessment

Maintenance Inspection

Risk Management Life Cycle

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APA KEUNTUNGAN DARI APA KEUNTUNGAN DARI PENGELOLAAN RISK ?PENGELOLAAN RISK ?

Terjalin komunikasi yang baik antara pipeline operator, regulator, insurer, customer, dan pihak lainnya.Peningkatan safety dan reliability system pipeline.Penurunan biaya operasi, inspeksi dan maintenance pipeline.Keamanan bagi lingkungan dan masyarakat sekitarpipeline

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Masukan dalam Perhitungan Risk

Data disain dan kondisi operasi pipaSejarah kegagalan (jika ada) Rekaman temuan inspeksiData populasi dan distribusi penduduk Kondisi ROW aktivitas pihak ketigaKondisi geologi dan iklim

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DATA TEKNIS YANG PERLU DATA TEKNIS YANG PERLU MENDAPAT PERHATIAN SERIUS :MENDAPAT PERHATIAN SERIUS :

Review dari Fluida (minyak dan gas)

Product Hazard dan Faktor Dispersi

Sejarah Kebocoran (jika ada)

Data Penggalian

Suvey Potensial untuk Proteksi Cathodic

Survey Cacat Coating

Hasil Intelligent Pig

dll yang relevan

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Probability of Failure atau Likelihood of Failure

Peluang kegagalan merupakan komponen pertama dalam perhitungan resiko dan harus dapat ditentukan terlebih dahulu.

Peluang kegagalan merupakan indikator utama terhadap integritasstruktur dan keandalan pipa terhadap kerusakan yang dihasilkan.

Probability of Failure dapat dihitung / ditaksir dari :

1. Teori Reliability dan Probabilistik (mis : FOSM)2. Fault Tree Analysis3. Sejarah / Laju Kegagalan persatuan waktu (Frekwensi of Failure)4. Sistim score berdasarkan weighting faktor, dsb.

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Likelihood of Failure / Frequency of Failure Likelihood of Failure / Frequency of Failure

Accident probability Accident probability tergantungtergantung : : kondisi pipakondisi pipa, , management, human error, management, human error, dsbdsb..

1.1. high high F > 10F > 10--22 per yearper year2.2. low low 1010--22 > F>10> F>10--44 per yearper year3.3. very lowvery low 1010--44 > F>10> F>10--66 per yearper year4.4. rare rare 1010--66 > F >10> F >10--88 per yearper year5.5. extremely rare extremely rare F < 10F < 10--88 per year per year

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Failure rates untuk pipa dengan diameter ½ ”- 2”

FAILURE MODES FAILURE RATES

Small leak 10-9 per hr.m

Break 3.10-11 per hr.m

Failure Rates 5 x 10-4 (per km per yr)

Small x < 20 mm 87%

Medium 20 mm < x < 80 mm 10%

Large x > 80 mm 3%

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Annual Failure Frequency Ranking for One pipeline

Category Description Frequency

1(low)

So low frequency that event considered negligible. <10-5

2 Event rarely expected to occur. 10-4>10-5

3(medium)

Event individually not expected to happen, but when summarized over a large number of pipelines have the credibility to happen once a year.

10-3>10-4

4 Event individually may be expected to occur during the lifetime of the pipeline (Typically a 100 year storm)

10-2>10-3

5(high)

Event individually may be expected to occur than once during lifetime.

>10-2

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Consequence of FailureConsequence of Failure

Menjelaskan hasil atau akibat atau dampak (-) sebuah accidental event. Konsekewnsi biasanya dievaluasi dari sisi i) human savety, ii) environmental impact dan iii) economic loss atau besaran lain yang menyebabkan kerugian material atau non-material.

Resiko yang tidak diinginkan pada kegagalan pipeline

1. Fire2. Explosion3. Pollution

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Identifying Potential Consequences for PipelinePipeline contents

Human safety Environmental impact

Material Damage

Gas Relevant Normally not relevant4

Relevant

Condensate Relevant Relevant1 Relevant

Oil Relevant Relevant Relevant

Water Normally not relevant Relevant5 Relevant

Umbilical Normally not relevant2

Normally not relevant2,3

Relevant

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Safety Consequence Ranking

Category Description

1 (low) No person(s) are injured

2 (not used)

3 (medium) Serious injury, one fatality (working accident)

4 (not used)

5 (high) More than one fatality (gas cloud ignition)

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Spillage Ranking

Category Description Amount of release

1 (low) Non, small or insignificant of the environment. Either due to no release of internal medium or only insignificant release.

~ 0

2 Minor release of polluting media. The released media will decompose or be neutralized rapidly by air or seawater.

<1000 tonnes

3 (medium) Moderate release of polluting medium. The released media will use some time to decompose or neutralize by air or seawater, or can easily be removed.

<10000 tonnes

4 Large release of polluting medium which can be removed, or will after some time decompose or be neutralized by air or seawater.

<100000 tonnes

5 (high) Large release of high polluting medium which can not be removed and will use long time to decompose or be neutralized by air or seawater.

>100000 tonnes

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Economic Consequence Ranking

Category DescriptionProduction delay/Downtime

1 (low) Insignificant effect on operation, small or insignificant cost of repair

0 days

2 Repair can be deferred until scheduled shutdown, some repair costs will occur.

<1 month

3 (medium) Failure causes extended unscheduled loss of facility or system and significant repair costs. Rectification requires unscheduledunderwater operation with pre-qualified repair system before further production.

1-3 months

4 Failure causes indefinite shut down and significant facility of system failure costs. Rectification requires unscheduled underwater operation without pre-qualified repair system before further production, OR Failures resulting in shorter periods of shut down of major parts of (or all of) the hydrocarbon production for the field.

3-12 months

5 (high) Total loss of pipeline and possible also loss of other structural parts of the platform. Large cost of repair including long time of shut down of production. OR Failures resulting in shut down of the total hydrocarbon production for a longer period.

1-3 years

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16-23 J06-24 JO7-24 J05-18 C513-07

WO9-23

WO6-24

WO4-24 WO6-18

W11-18

W10-07

JO4-24

JO7-24 J11-18

4"0.48 km

12" 1 km 12" 0.5 km 12" 1.2 km 10" 1.0 km

10"0.48 km

8"0.48 km

6"0.48 km

3"0.4 km

10"0.6 km

PIPELINE SECTIONING

Pembagian seksi pipa perlu untuk mengidentifikasi bagian pipeline yang memiliki potensi risk tertinggi.

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PRESENTASI RISK - MATRIX

Representasi grafis untuk memudahkan mengkarakterisasi pipeline risk (merupakan rangkuman)

Consequenceevaluation

Human safety,Environmental Impact

Economical loss

Consequencevs

damage

Not acceptable

ALARP region

Acceptable

Event

Frequencyestimation

Frequencyvs

damage

Frequencyranking

1 2 3 4 5

1

234

5

Risk matrix

Process description of a risk assessment(figure is olny schematic, actual limits need to be given operator)

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0.0

1.4

2.8

4.2

5.6

7.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Ranking Matrix for "Natural Gas"

Consequences of Failure

Like

lihoo

d of

Fai

lure

Database of pipelines shown in a risk matrix

Consequences of Failure (CoF)

Like

lihoo

d of

Fai

lure

(CoF

)

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0

5

10

15

20

25

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Lokasi Pipeline (Km)

Scor

e

Likeliho o d

C o nsequences

R isk Sco re

Presentasi Risk – Kurva (plot ) Risk Score Vs Lokasi Pipeline

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1. Risk assessment perlu dilakukan untuk mengidentifikasi resiko

tertinggi dari jalur pipeline (khususnya aging pipeline)

2. Pipa dengan resiko tertinggi dapat dikelola untuk menurunkan

level risknya (risk mitigation), apakah peluang kegagalannya

yang diturunkan atau dampaknya yang dikurangi.

3. Jika no.1 & 2 dilakukan maka akan terjadi optimasi : i) inspeksi,

ii) maintenance, & iii) operational cost yang efektip dengan

tingkat safety dan keandalan tinggi dari pipeline.

Penutup dan Kesimpulan