PERFORMA SEKTORPERTANIAN, DIVERSITAS, DAN KETIDAKPASTIAN .DIVERSITAS, DAN KETIDAKPASTIAN Raditya

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Transcript of PERFORMA SEKTORPERTANIAN, DIVERSITAS, DAN KETIDAKPASTIAN .DIVERSITAS, DAN KETIDAKPASTIAN Raditya

PERFORMA SEKTOR PERTANIAN, DIVERSITAS, DAN KETIDAKPASTIAN

Raditya Nugraha (286681)

Nicko Febrianto (282676)

Proborini (282887)

Syarifudin Zuhdi (288824)

Frengki Parama Putra (283749)

Fuat Wahyu Prabowo (282599)

1

Background

Pertumbuhan penduduk seperti deret ukur, sedangkan pertumbuhan makanan seperti deret hitung (Malthus, 1798) Permasalahan: 1. Meningkatnya kelangkaan sumberdaya 2. Resiko perubahan iklim yang tidak menentu 3. Tingginya harga energi 4. Permintaan atas biofuel 5. Kekhawatiran atas kecepatan proses teknikal yang

berimplikasi terhadap performa sektor pertanian

2

Outline

Productivity growth in developing countries drove agricultures global success Developing countries have led agricultural growth Better technology and better policy have been major sources of

growth

Growth across regions and countries has been uneven Differences in performance reflect different underlying conditions

Both agroecological conditions and market access matter

Opportunities for a new agriculture through diversification The horticulture revolution The livestock and aquaculture revolutions Diversifying through export markets Biofuelsa revolution In the making?

3

Outline (contd)

Future perspectives: confronting challenges and rising uncertainties A business as usual scenario Looming land constraints Acute water scarcity Uncertain effects of climate change High energy prices: pressure on food Prices from two sides Will science deliver? The bottom line: a more Uncertain future? A growing divide among regions?

Conclusiona continuing production challenge Biofuels: the promise and the risks

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Productivity Growth in Developing Countries Drove Agricultures Global Success

Raditya Nugraha

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Productivity Growth in Developing Countries Drove Agricultures Global Success

Dari 1980-2004, pertumbuhan GDP di sektor pertanian meningkat 2%, sedangkan pertumbuhan penduduk hanya meningkat 1,6%.

Peningkatan produktivitas menyebabkan harga riil padi-padian di pasar dunia turun 1,8% tiap tahunnya.

6

Developing Countries Have Led Agricultural Growth

Pertumbuhan sektor pertanian di negara berkembang lebih cepat dibanding negara industri (2,6% per tahun berbanding 0,9% per tahun) pada rentang waktu 1980-2004.

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Better Technology and Better Policy Have Been Major Sources of Growth

Penggunaan teknologi pada irigasi, peningkatan varietas benih, dan penggunaan fertilisasi menjadi kunci utama pertumbuhan sektor pertanian.

8

Growth Across Regions and Countries has been Uneven

Sub-Saharan Afrika masih memiliki tingkat perbandingan yang rendah pada produktivitas di sektor pertanian.

Stagnation in Sub-Saharan African Growth in agricultural GDP per agricultural population

9

Differences in Performance Reflect Different Underlying Conditions

Nicko Febrianto

10

Differences in Performance Reflect Different Underlying Conditions

The different performances of countries and regions in part reflect the huge diversity of agricultural production systems, such as;

Agro climatic potential

Population density

Infrastructure.

etc.

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Rain Fed

Two-thirds (1.8 billion) of the developing worlds rural population lives in areas with favorable agro ecological potentialthat is, irrigated areas.

But one-third (820 million people) live in less favored rain fed regions, characterized by frequent moisture stress that limits agricultural production.

Although these less-favored areas account for 54 percent of the agricultural area, they produce only 30 percent of the total value of agricultural production.

Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa all have fairly high shares of rural population in these moisture-stressed areas.

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Market Access

In developing countries 16 percent of the rural population (439 million people) lives in areas with poor market access.

About half the agricultural area in these remote regions has good agricultural potential.

In Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa, the percentage of rural population with poor market access is more than 30 percent.

In South Asia, only 5 percent live in remote areas, and 17 percent in East Asia and the Pacific.

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Favored Regions

Favored regions are those that are irrigated or have good rainfall and have medium to high access to markets.

Sixty percent of the rural population live in these areas. Almost two-thirds of the Sub-Saharan rural population

are in less-favored areas with either or both low agricultural potential or poor market access, compared with only 25 percent for South Asia.

Of course, many additional elements of less-favored areas should also be considered, including the fragility of the natural resource base (Chapter 8) and social conditions.

17

Favored Regions

For much of Sub-Saharan Africa, poor market access is almost as important a constraint (34 percent) as rainfall (45 percent).

In Ethiopia, 68 percent of the rural population lives in medium- to high rainfall areas, but on average 10 km from the nearest road and 18 km from the nearest public transport.

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Farming Systems and Strategies

These distinctions determine the choice of farming systems and strategies.

In Ethiopia a disproportionate share of vegetable production is in high access areas (63 percent of production), while cereals are concentrated in less favored areas, whether defined by rainfall or by market access.

These characteristics are not immutable, investments can convert less-favored areas with low rainfall or poor roads into high potential areas.

Beyond infrastructure, agricultural investments in new varieties to improve yield stability and in natural resource management can be effective in less favored areas (chapter 8).

Over the long term, investments in human and social capital to enhance income diversification and out-migration may be the best option for many areas (chapter 9).

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Center Pivot Irrigation

Libyan pivot irrigation at Al KHufrah Oasis 20

Libya's Pivot Irrigation in the Sahara Proves Money Can Do Anything

In a country like Libya, where more than 95% of the country consists of the near-waterless Sahara.

This type of agriculture is not cheap, and is only possible by being able to tap underground fossil water deposits from a large underground aquifer.

Each circular plot is about 1 km in diameter, and is able to grow a number of different crops include grains, fruits and vegetables, and crops for animal fodder.

21

Pivot Irrigation 22

Pivot irrigation in Jordan 23

Opportunities for a new agriculture through diversification

Proborini

24

Peluang bagi Pertanian Baru melalui Diversifikasi

Petani yang berada di daerah potensi pertanian yang baik dan dengan akses pasar yang baik-sekitar 60 persen dari penduduk pedesaan di dunia berkembang-memiliki kesempatan yang bagus di pasar baru.

Dengan mendiversifikasi ke produk yang memiliki nilai tinggi, mereka dapat mengimbangi penurunan harga produk padi-padian dan ekspor tradisional.

Perubahan pola makan konsumen- yang dipicu oleh pertumbuhan pendapatan yang cepat dan meningkatnya urbanisasi. Sudah cukup kuat untuk menggerakkan diversifikasi.

Terutama di negara-negara yang mengalami transformasi dan urban, pola makan mulai meninggalkan padi-padian, akar-akaran, umbi-umbian, dan kacang-kacangan untuk beralih pada berbagai produk peternakan, minyak sayur, buah-buahan, dan sayuran .

Revolusi hortikultura

Buah-buahan dan sayuran merupakan salah satu pasar pertanian yang tumbuh paling pesat di negara-negara berkembang.

Dengan peningkatan produksi sebesar 3,6 persen per tahun untuk buah-buahan dan sayuran 5,5 persen untuk selama 1980-2004. Selama periode ini, 58 persen dari peningkatan produksi hortikultura seluruh dunia berasal dari China , 38 persen dari semua negara-negara berkembang lainnya, dan 4 persen sisanya dari negara-negara maju.

Revolusi holtikultura meningkatkan pendapatan dan membuka lapangan kerja.

Holtikultura juga dapat menyebabkan masalah yang besar bagi lingkungan: holtikultura mengambil bagian sebesar 28 persen dari penggunaan pestisida global.

Revolusi hortikultura, tidak seperti revolusi hijau, terutama digerakkan oleh sektor swasta dan pasar.

Revolusi peternakan dan budidaya

Revolusi peternakan dan budidaya telah terkenal di negara-negara yang mengalami transformasi dan urban di Asia dan Amerika Latin.

Lebih dari 90 persen dari produksi perikanan budidaya terjadi di negara berkembang, dan China sendiri menyumbang 67 persen dari produksi global.

Akuakultur dapat memberikan sumber kehidupan yang penting bagi masyarakat miskin pedesaan, menghasilkan pendapatan melalui penjualan langsung produk dan pekerjaan dalam produksi ikan dan jasa, terutama dalam pengolahan.

metode produksi intensif dan konsentrasi pertumbuhan hewan di dekat daerah perkotaan dan pinggir kota dari negara-negara berkembang dapat meningkatkan polusi limbah dan kejadian penyakit seperti tuberkulosis dan flu burung

Diversifikasi melalui pasar ekspor Produk bernilai tinggi juga membuat bagian yang berkemba