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  • www.ovum.com

    Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    A glimpse on the Next BroadbandGeneration

    Dario Talmesio

    Principal Analyst and Practice Leader

    Ovum

    19th November 2015, Jakarta

  • 2 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    A glimpse on the Next Broadband Generation

    The Global wireless broadband technology evolution

    Market developments the state of LTE Data Services projections Video traffic and monetization

    Ovum View on the path to network transformation

    Network transformation roadmap to 2025 Cases studies from US and Europe

    The road to 5G

    Defining the 5G networks by requirements Early adopters and expectations Japan, Korea, China

  • 3 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    LTE is the fastest adopted mobile technology ever!

    0

    500.000.000

    1.000.000.000

    1.500.000.000

    2.000.000.000

    2.500.000.000

    3.000.000.000

    3.500.000.000

    4.000.000.000

    4.500.000.000

    5.000.000.000

    Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15

    On path to 1bn

    LTE subscribers

  • 4 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    4G LTE goes mass market in most regions

    1% 0%5% 5%

    7%

    52%

    20% 21%

    3% 3%

    15%11%

    19%

    71%

    42%

    50%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    LTE LTE LTE LTE LTE LTE LTE LTE

    Africa Central &Southern Asia

    Eastern Europe Latin America &the Caribbean

    Middle East North America Oceania, Eastern& South-Eastern

    Asia

    Western Europe

    Sum of Sep 15 Sum of Dec 17

    2017 - LTE nearing / exceeding the50% subscriptions mark in key

    regions

  • 5 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    ...meaning that Mobile Broadband video traffic willexplode!

    38,4%

    Mobile Network Traffic (%)2015

    Video GamesMusic Web browsingSocial Networking CommunicationsOther Data

    68.0%

    Mobile Network Traffic (%)20120

    Video GamesMusic Web browsingSocial Networking CommunicationsOther Data

  • 6 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    But also that Telecom Operators havenew opportunities and new threats

    Tele

    com

    Ope

    rato

    rs

    Digital Service Platform

    Traditional VAS

    Connectivity

    Telco Opportunity to build anecosystem to drive distributionof new Digital Services

    Protect existing busies anddrive efficiencies

    Monetize internet experienceand OTT service

  • 7 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    and operators try to monetize video traffice.g. Vodafone - OTT partnership model works

  • 8 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    but also bundling fixed-mobile TV offeringe.g. KPN s quad-paly with focus on TV

    Goals for KPN's multiplay/bundling strategy are to: reduce churn, stabilize revenues, aidthe move of mobile customers from prepaid to postpaid service plans.

    Key differences from other quad-play: 1) not based on offering heavy discountedservices 2) mobile is the anchor product for all bundles.

    KPN allows customers to continue to run their service contracts separately - customersmaintain contracts because they want to continue benefit from the bundle offer. e.g.benefits (double mobile voice, texts, and data; family calling; and additional TV and filmchannels).

  • 9 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    all supported by a wave of LTE innovation

    420+ operators have commerciallylaunched LTE in 143 countries.

    20% of all LTE operators (approx. 90operators) have commercially launchedLTE-Advanced.

    15 LTE-Advanced networks supportCategory 4 devices (above 100 Mbps up to150 Mbps peak downlink speed) while 73networks support Category 6 devices(above 150 Mbps up to 300 Mbps).

    LTE1800 is now used in 187commercially launched networks in 89countries representing over 44% of LTEnetwork deployments.

    Most operators (90%) deployed LTEnetworks in paired spectrum using the FDDmode, the LTE TDD mode (TD-LTE) foroperators with unpaired spectrum continuesto develop in all regions.

    Currently 59 operators, which is almost 1 in7 of all LTE operators, have commerciallylaunched LTE service using the TDDmode in 35 countries.

    Converged FDD and TDD LTE networksis gaining traction amongst manyoperators.

    The VoLTE market continues to advance.The report confirms that 103 operators areinvesting in VoLTE deployments, 13VoWiFi launches in 8 countries.

    Source: Ovum, GSA

  • 10 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    A glimpse on the Next Broadband Generation

    The Global wireless BB technology evolution

    Market developments the state of LTE Data Services projections Video traffic and monetization

    Ovum View on the path to network transformation

    Network transformation roadmap to 2025 Cases studies from US and Europe

    The road to 5G

    Defining the 5G networks by requirements Early adopters and expectations Japan, Korea, China

  • 11 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    The road to network transformation to 2025

  • 12 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    Ovums outlook for SDN and NFV to 2025

  • 13 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    Case Study: AT&Ts transformation strategy

    User-Defined Network Cloud Initiative - a cloud-based architecture Virtualize hardware functions, cut costs, put more control of the network

    (actually network services) in users hands, emphasize open sourcesoftware.

    AT&T Integrated Cloud Nodes: Physical sites running virtualizedfunctions, plans for 29 nodes with 40 more by the EOY 2015, 4,600 COswill look more like DCs

    Domain 2.0 supplier program (announced in September 2013) Changing how AT&T works with the supplier community, AT&T is

    building its own ecosystem of vendors 10 announced vendors

    Set objective targets All IP network by 2020, convert 150 network functions, 75% of network

    virtualized by 2020, 5% in 2015 starting with connected car applicationsand MVNO services

    Goal is the transformation of AT&Ts network, anddriving AT&T to become a software company

  • 14 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    Case Study: AT&Ts transformation strategy

    Employ beachhead programs to progress towards goals AT&T Switched Ethernet Service provided by AT&T Network

    on Demand service available in 100 US cities, 4 customers vEPC for connected core and MVNO services Virtualized VoIP and VoLTE networks

    Manage organizational and cultural change Education and training helping employees to acquire

    software skills. Udacity and Georgia Tech. University (500,000 course

    enrollments) Hiring and compensation to attract and retain people with

    needed software skills

    $3bn reduction in 2015 capex partially credited to SDN/NFV

  • 15 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    Case Study: Telefonica evolving towards a fullyVirtualized Network

    Strategy: make progress through TCO-driven use caseswith no need to wait for a Big Bang of virtual networks

    Source: Telefonica

  • 16 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    With focus on subscribers QoE

    Source: Telefonica

  • 17 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    Using a 3 phases network transformationallleading to 5G

    Telefonica plans to follow a three-phase approach to implementing UNICA

    Virtualize non-critical systems, such as AAA and IP Media Subsystem(IMS), deploying them as virtual network functions (VNFs)

    Transform to NFV core networks like virtual Evolved Packet Core(vEPC) for LTE

    Virtualize critical systems like Home Subscriber Server (HSS) and HomeLocation Register (HLR)

    boundary between Core and Access networks to blurin 5G systems

  • 18 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    A glimpse on the Next Broadband Generation

    The Global wireless BB technology evolution

    Market developments the state of LTE Mobile data traffic projections data service subscribers in different areas)

    Ovum View on the path to business transformation

    Business transformation roadmap to 2025 Cases studies from US and Europe

    The road to 5G

    Defining the 5G networks by requirements Early adopters and expectations Japan, Korea, China

  • 19 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    5G defining it is still difficult but expectations arehigh across the wider community of stakeholders

    Which of the following you would regard as essential before a network should be considered to be a 5Gnetwork. Choose all that apply.

    Source: GSA

  • 20 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    Early 5G deployments everyone wants to befirst! Korea, China, Japan, from 2018

  • 21 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    Takeaways

    Mobile data explosion is a reality and deliver data (especiallyvideo) in a cost effective way will prove challenging with existingnetwork infrastructure and business models.

    The road to network transformation has started and will lead tohuge opportunities for efficiency and agility but also will requiredeep network, business and cultural changes in organizations

    5G will be a reality sooner than most think being there now willgive a clear competitive advantage to operators and vendorsalike

  • 22 Copyright Ovum 2015. All rights reserved.

    Thank you!

    Stay in touch!

    Dario Talmesio

    Principal Analyst and Practice Leader