MATRIK I EKO MM

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Pengenalan Ekonomi

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  • [email protected]*Hand Out Matrikulasi Teori EkonomiProf. Dr. H. Didik Susetyo, SE., MSiA Teori Ekonomi MikroDefinisi, asumsi, dan analisis pendekatanTeori Permintaan dan PenawaranPreferensi, Utilitas, dan Elastisitas (e = dQ/dP.P/Q)Teori Produksi dan BiayaKonsepsi Pasar Barang dan Faktor Produksi

    B Teori Ekonomi MakroDefinisi, asumsi, dan pendekatanTeori Pendapatan Nasional: Y = C + I + G + (X-M)Teori Konsumsi ( C = a + b Yd) dan investasi (I = f(i, y))Konsep AD, AS, dan KeseimbanganKebijakan Fiskal dan Moneter*

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  • *[email protected]*Pengetahuan & IlmuAPA PERBEDAAN KNOWLEDGE & SCIENCE?Knowledge: pengetahuan (sumber: revelasi, otoritas, intuisi, common sense, dan ilmu)Science: ilmu (definisi: akumulasi pengetahuan, sistematik, rasional, metodik, ilmiah (scientific method)

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  • *[email protected]*Pengetahuan & IlmuPengetahuan (knowledge) adalah sesuatu yang diperoleh dari proses keingin tahuan manusia yang biasanya kebenaran bersifat non-ilmiah (kebetulan, common sense, wahyu, intuitif, trial & error, spekulasi, dan kewibawaan) Ilmu (science) adalah akumulasi pengetahuan yang menjelaskan kausalitas yang tersusun secara sistematis, rasional, logik, dan metodik yang ditemukan secara empirik melalui penelitian oleh ilmuan (atau akumulasi pengetahuan yang telah disistematiskan, diorganisasikan, dan memiliki metode yang mapan)

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  • *[email protected]*Teori & Ekonomi MakroAPA ITU TEORI? Abstraksi dari dunia nyata(unsur teori: definisi variabel, asumsi, hipotesis, dan prediksi)APA DEFINISI EKONOMI MAKRO?ilmu yang mempelajari kegiatan ekonomi secara agregatif (keseluruhan)Variabel makro: pendapatan nasional, inflasi, pengangguran, ekspor, impor, tingkat bunga, etc.

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  • *[email protected]*Lingkup KajianRUANG LINGKUP:-Pendapatan Nasional (GNP, GDP, NI, DI, PI)-Agregate Demand & Supply (IS & LM)-Employment & Unemployment-Price & Inflation-Kebijakan Makroekonomi: Kebijakan Fiskal, Kebijakan Moneter, Ketenagakerjaan, Harga, Perdagangan, Investasi, etc.

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  • [email protected]* Welcome to Macroeconomics!*

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  • [email protected]*Economists use models to understand what goes on in the economy.Here are two important points about models: endogenous variables and exogenous variables. Endogenous variables are those which the model tries to explain. Exogenous variables are those variables that a model takes as given. In short, endogenous are variables within a model, and exogenous are the variables outside the model.*

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  • [email protected]*Market clearing is an alignment process whereby decisions between suppliers and demanders reach an equilibrium. Heres how it works.Remember that the demand curve slopes downward meaning thatas you increase the price (by moving along the demand curve), the quantity demanded decreases. Conversely, the supply curve slopes upward implying that as the price increases (by moving along the supply curve), the amount supplied will increase.Lets say you begin with a demand and supply curve for CDs.Now, suppose that there is a sudden increase in the demand for CDs. Demand will shift from D to D.The center point A is where market decisions reach an equilibrium.The increase in demand places upward pressure on the price to point B since the original price, P* no longer clears the market.*

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  • [email protected]*SHIFTS IN DEMAND: Suppose your incomerises? Your demand for a given product, say pizza for example, will also increase. This translates into a rightward shift in thedemand curve from D to D'. Result:both price and quantity are higher.SHIFTS IN SUPPLY: A fall in the price of materials increases the supply of pizza; at any given price, pizzerias find that the sale of pizza is more profitable, and thus the supply of pizza rises. This translates into a rightward shift in supplyfrom S to S' .Result: price falls, quantity rises.*

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  • [email protected]*Economists typically assume that the market will go into an equilibrium of supply and demand, which is called the market clearing process. This assumption is central to the pizza example on the previous slide. But, assuming that markets clear continuously is not realistic. For markets to clear continuously, prices would have to adjust instantly to changes in supply and demand. But, evidence suggests that prices and wages often adjust slowly.

    So, remember that although market clearing models assume that wages and prices are flexible, in actuality, some wages and prices are sticky.

    *

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  • [email protected]**

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  • *[email protected]*Macroeconomic Indicator Assumption*Budget

    Macro Econ Indicator200420052006*2007*1. GDP (billion Rp)3,040,7713,531,0872. Ec growth yoy (%)5.06.06.26.33. Inflation (%)6.48.08.06.54. Exchange rate Rp-US$8,9399,5009,9009,3005. Interest rate SBI-3month7.398.259.58.56. Intl Oil Price (US$/barrel)37.1750.657.065.07. Oil prod (millionbarrel/day)1,0721,0751,0501,000

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  • *[email protected]*Learning objectivesThis moment introduces you tothe issues macroeconomists studythe tools macroeconomists usesome important concepts in macroeconomic analysis

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  • *[email protected]*Important issues in macroeconomicsWhy does the cost of living keep rising?Why are millions of people unemployed, even when the economy is booming?Why are there recessions? Can the government do anything to combat recessions? Should it??What is the government budget deficit? How does it affect the economy?Why does the U.S. have such a huge trade deficit? Why are so many countries poor? What policies might help them grow out of poverty?

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  • *[email protected]*U.S. Gross Domestic Product in billions of chained 1996 dollars

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    data

    Title:Real Gross Domestic Product, 1 Decimal

    Series ID:GDPC1

    Source:U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Release:Not Applicable

    Seasonal Adjustment:Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

    Frequency:Quarterly

    Units:Billions of Chained 1996 Dollars

    Date Range:1947-01-01 to 2003-01-01

    Last Updated:2003-05-29 10:37 AM CT

    Notes:A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United

    States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/an/nipaguid.pdf)

    DATEx-axisRGDP

    1970-01-0119703566.5

    1970-04-011970.253573.9

    1970-07-011970.53605.2

    1970-10-011970.753566.5

    1971-01-0119713666.1

    1971-04-011971.253686.2

    1971-07-011971.53714.5

    1971-10-011971.753723.8

    1972-01-0119723796.9

    1972-04-011972.253883.8

    1972-07-011972.53922.3

    1972-10-011972.753990.5

    1973-01-0119734092.3

    1973-04-011973.254133.3

    1973-07-011973.54117.0

    1973-10-011973.754151.1

    1974-01-0119744119.3

    1974-04-011974.254130.4

    1974-07-011974.54084.5

    1974-10-011974.754062.0

    1975-01-0119754010.0

    1975-04-011975.254045.2

    1975-07-011975.54115.4

    1975-10-011975.754167.2

    1976-01-0119764266.1

    1976-04-011976.254301.5

    1976-07-011976.54321.9

    1976-10-011976.754357.4

    1977-01-0119774410.5

    1977-04-011977.254489.8

    1977-07-011977.54570.6

    1977-10-011977.754576.1

    1978-01-0119784588.9

    1978-04-011978.254765.7

    1978-07-011978.54811.7

    1978-10-011978.754876.0

    1979-01-0119794888.3

    1979-04-011979.254891.4

    1979-07-011979.54926.2

    1979-10-011979.754942.6

    1980-01-0119804958.9

    1980-04-011980.254857.8

    1980-07-011980.54850.3

    1980-10-011980.754936.6

    1981-01-0119815032.5

    1981-04-011981.254997.3

    1981-07-011981.55056.8

    1981-10-011981.754997.1

    1982-01-0119824914.3

    1982-04-011982.254935.5

    1982-07-011982.54912.1

    1982-10-011982.754915.6

    1983-01-0119834972.4

    1983-04-011983.255089.8

    1983-07-011983.55180.4

    1983-10-011983.755286.8

    1984-01-0119845402.3

    1984-04-011984.255493.8

    1984-07-011984.55541.3

    1984-10-011984.755583.1

    1985-01-0119855629.7

    1985-04-011985.255673.8

    1985-07-011985.55758.6

    1985-10-011985.755806.0

    1986-01-0119865858.9

    1986-04-011986.255883.3

    1986-07-011986.55937.9

    1986-10-011986.755969.5

    1987-01-0119876013.3

    1987-04-011987.256077.2

    1987-07-011987.56128.1

    1987-10-011987.756234.4

    1988-01-0119886275.9

    1988-04-011988.256349.8

    1988-07-011988.56382.3

    1988-10-011988.756465.2

    1989-01-0119896543.8

    1989-04-011989.256579.4

    1989-07-011989.56610.6

    1989-10-011989.756633.5

    1990-01-0119906716.3

    1990-04-011990.256731.7

    1990-07-011990.56719.4

    1990-10-011990.756664.2

    1991-01-0119916631.4

    1991-04-011991.256668.5

    1991-07-011991.56684.9

    1991-10-011991.756720.9

    1992-01-0119926783.3

    1992-04-011992.256846.8

    1992-07-011992.56899.7

    1992-10-011992.756990.6

    1993-01-0119936988.7

    1993-04-011993.257031.2

    1993-07-011993.57062.0

    1993-10-011993.757168.7

    1994-01-0119947229.4

    1994-04-011994.257330.2

    1994-07-011994.57370.2

    1994-10-011994.757461.1

    1995-01-0119957488.7

    1995-04-011995.257503.3

    1995-07-011995.57561.4

    1995-10-011995.757621.9

    1996-01-0119967676.4

    1996-04-011996.257802.9

    1996-07-011996.57841.9

    1996-10-011996.757931.3

    1997-01-0119978016.4

    1997-04-011997.258131.9

    1997-07-011997.58216.6

    1997-10-011997.758272.9

    1998-01-0119988396.3

    1998-04-011998.258442.9

    1998-07-011998.58528.5

    1998-10-011998.758667.9

    1999-01-0119998733.2

    1999-04-011999.258775.5

    1999-07-011999.58886.9

    1999-10-011999.759040.1

    2000-01-0120009097.4

    2000-04-012000.259205.7

    2000-07-012000.59218.7

    2000-10-012000.759243.8

    2001-01-0120019229.9

    2001-04-012001.259193.1

    2001-07-012001.59186.4

    2001-10-012001.759248.8

    2002-01-0120029363.2

    2002-04-012002.259392.4

    2002-07-012002.59485.6

    2002-10-012002.759518.2

    2003-01-0120039562.9

    RGDP time series graph

    3566.5

    3573.9

    3605.2

    3566.5

    3666.1

    3686.2

    3714.5

    3723.8

    3796.9

    3883.8

    3922.3

    3990.5

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    4133.3

    4117

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    4130.4

    4084.5

    4062

    4010

    4045.2

    4115.4

    4167.2

    4266.1

    4301.5

    4321.9

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    4489.8

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    4576.1

    4588.9

    4765.7

    4811.7

    4876

    4888.3

    4891.4

    4926.2

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    4857.8

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    4997.3

    5056.8

    4997.1

    4914.3

    4935.5

    4912.1

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    5180.4

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    5402.3

    5493.8

    5541.3

    5583.1

    5629.7

    5673.8

    5758.6

    5806

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    5883.3

    5937.9

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    6128.1

    6234.4

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    6349.8

    6382.3

    6465.2

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    6579.4

    6610.6

    6633.5

    6716.3

    6731.7

    6719.4

    6664.2

    6631.4

    6668.5

    6684.9

    6720.9

    6783.3

    6846.8

    6899.7

    6990.6

    6988.7

    7031.2

    7062

    7168.7

    7229.4

    7330.2

    7370.2

    7461.1

    7488.7

    7503.3

    7561.4

    7621.9

    7676.4

    7802.9

    7841.9

    7931.3

    8016.4

    8131.9

    8216.6

    8272.9

    8396.3

    8442.9

    8528.5

    8667.9

    8733.2

    8775.5

    8886.9

    9040.1

    9097.4

    9205.7

    9218.7

    9243.8

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    9193.1

    9186.4

    9248.8

    9363.2

    9392.4

    9485.6

    9518.2

    9562.9

    RGDP

  • *[email protected]*Why learn macroeconomics?The macroeconomy affects societys well-being.example: Unemployment and social problemsEach one-point increase in the u-rate is associated with:920 more suicides650 more homicides4000 more people admitted to state mental institutions3300 more people sent to state prisons37, 000 more deathsincreases in domestic violence and homelessness

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  • *[email protected]*Why learn macroeconomics?The macroeconomy affects your well-being.Unemployment and earnings growth

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    graph

    2.489626556-0.7

    3.3195020747-0.3

    3.0428769018-0.7

    1.7832647462-0.5

    2.7322404372-0.5

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    2.1534320323-0.8

    2.7027027027-0.9

    2.5641025641-0.7

    2.294197031-1

    2.6990553306-0.9

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    1.6-0.8

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    0.3947368421-0.5

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    0.2638522427-0.2

    0.6570302234-0.1

    1.31752305670

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    1.0204081633-0.3

    1.1479591837-0.1

    1.0113780025-0.1

    1.3941698352-0.2

    1.3977128335-0.2

    1.14213197970

    1.126408010.3

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    0.12547051440.5

    0.37688442210.8

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    0.1251.4

    0.25062656641.5

    0.62735257211.6

    01.7

    -0.24813895781.8

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    0-0.2

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    1.221001221-0.9

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    0.7202881152-1.4

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    1.028277635-2.5

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    1.5483870968-0.1

    0.8997429306-0.4

    1.0309278351-0.1

    0.2564102564-0.6

    -1.0191082803-0.6

    -1.5267175573-0.8

    -1.2771392082-0.9

    -1.4120667522-1

    -1.5444015444-0.9

    -1.4175257732-0.9

    -1.4066496164-1.1

    -1.5325670498-1

    -1.6518424396-1.1

    -1.4012738854-0.9

    -1.0204081633-0.9

    -1.0230179028-0.9

    -0.7722007722-0.9

    -0.3875968992-0.9

    -0.2587322122-0.7

    -0.2604166667-0.8

    -0.1307189542-0.7

    -0.6535947712-0.4

    -0.3891050584-0.5

    -0.2594033722-0.6

    -0.5167958656-0.5

    -0.7751937984-0.4

    -0.5154639175-0.3

    -0.645994832-0.5

    -0.6485084306-0.7

    -0.7782101167-0.2

    -1.6861219196-0.4

    -1.3054830287-0.1

    -0.7853403141-0.2

    -0.5263157895-0.4

    -0.2604166667-0.1

    -0.5201560468-0.1

    -0.77922077920.1

    -0.52083333330.1

    -1.68393782380

    -1.3003901170.1

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    -0.91503267970.2

    -0.13192612140.2

    -0.3968253968-0.1

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    -1.58730158730.5

    -2.21932114880.6

    -2.6143790850.6

    -2.61780104710.8

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    -1.71277997361

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    -1.4550264551.6

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    -1.58520475561.5

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    -0.40322580651.2

    -0.13351134851

    0.13422818791.1

    0.13440860220.8

    0.13404825741

    00.9

    0.13422818790.8

    -0.13422818790.6

    -0.53547523430.7

    -0.40268456380.7

    -0.67294751010.9

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    0-0.5

    -0.1347708895-0.8

    0.1349527665-0.9

    0.4037685061-0.7

    0.4048582996-0.5

    0-0.5

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    0.136239782-0.9

    0-0.8

    -0.4092769441-0.8

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    0.4054054054-1

    0-1

    0-1

    -0.2680965147-1

    -0.2688172043-1.2

    -0.2699055331-1.1

    -0.4048582996-0.6

    -0.9433962264-0.5

    -0.4081632653-0.5

    0.272479564-0.4

    0.4109589041-0.3

    0.5412719892-0.3

    0.134589502-0.3

    0.40485829960

    0.40431266850.1

    0.40322580650.1

    0.13477088950.1

    0.13531799730.1

    0.406504065-0.3

    0.40816326530

    0.956284153-0.3

    0.1358695652-0.2

    0.6821282401-0.6

    0.5383580081-0.4

    0.1344086022-0.3

    0.2688172043-0.2

    0.6711409396-0.2

    0.5354752343-0.4

    1.0767160162-0.2

    1.6216216216-0.3

    1.3495276653-0.5

    1.7615176152-0.7

    1.4884979702-0.3

    1.6282225237-0.7

    1.7615176152-0.3

    1.6064257028-0.3

    2.1476510067-0.5

    2.8150134048-0.8

    2.2666666667-0.7

    2.6631158455-0.6

    3.0625832224-0.7

    2.9255319149-0.5

    2.9294274301-0.7

    2.7962716378-0.5

    2.5333333333-0.5

    2.6702269693-0.3

    2.9294274301-0.3

    2.766798419-0.4

    2.6281208936-0.2

    2.3468057366-0.2

    2.3468057366-0.3

    2.3346303502-0.4

    1.8087855297-0.2

    1.8087855297-0.5

    1.42302716690

    1.8134715026-0.2

    1.8205461638-0.2

    1.5604681404-0.2

    1.0349288486-0.3

    0.8974358974-0.3

    0.7682458387-0.4

    0.3821656051-0.3

    0.6369426752-0.3

    0.7604562738-0.3

    0.3807106599-0.3

    -0.3807106599-0.1

    0.7653061224-0.4

    0-0.1

    -0.2554278416-0.3

    0.3841229193-0.3

    growth rate of inflation-adjusted hourly earnings

    change in Unemployment rate

    %

    data

    National Employment, Hours, and Earnings

    Series Catalog:

    Series ID : EEU00500049

    Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Industry : Total private

    SIC Code : N/A

    Data Type : AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, 1982 DOLLARS

    (1982 $)

    avg hourlyearningsann earnann

    yearmonthearningsU rategr rated(Urate)gr rated(U rate)

    196411964.08333333337.235.6

    196421964.16666666677.235.40.00-0.20

    196431964.257.235.40.000.00

    196441964.33333333337.295.39.96-0.10

    196451964.41666666677.325.14.94-0.20

    196461964.57.335.21.640.10

    196471964.58333333337.314.9-3.27-0.30

    196481964.66666666677.3658.210.10

    196491964.757.435.111.410.10

    1964101964.83333333337.45.1-4.850.00

    1964111964.91666666677.414.81.62-0.30

    19641219657.4150.000.20

    196511965.08333333337.414.90.00-0.102.489626556-0.7

    196521965.16666666677.475.19.720.203.3195020747-0.3

    196531965.257.454.7-3.21-0.403.0428769018-0.7

    196541965.33333333337.424.8-4.830.101.7832647462-0.5

    196551965.41666666677.524.616.17-0.202.7322404372-0.5

    196561965.57.54.6-3.190.002.3192360164-0.6

    196571965.58333333337.54.40.00-0.202.5991792066-0.5

    196581965.66666666677.54.40.000.001.902173913-0.6

    196591965.757.594.314.40-0.102.1534320323-0.8

    1965101965.83333333337.64.21.58-0.102.7027027027-0.9

    1965111965.91666666677.64.10.00-0.102.5641025641-0.7

    19651219667.584-3.16-0.102.294197031-1

    196611966.08333333337.6144.750.002.6990553306-0.9

    196621966.16666666677.593.8-3.15-0.201.6064257028-1.3

    196631966.257.573.8-3.160.001.610738255-0.9

    196641966.33333333337.583.81.590.002.1563342318-1

    196651966.41666666677.613.94.750.101.1968085106-0.7

    196661966.57.623.81.58-0.101.6-0.8

    196671966.58333333337.633.81.570.001.7333333333-0.6

    196681966.66666666677.563.8-11.010.000.8-0.6

    196691966.757.683.719.05-0.101.185770751-0.6

    1966101966.83333333337.633.7-7.810.000.3947368421-0.5

    1966111966.91666666677.633.60.00-0.100.3947368421-0.5

    19661219677.63.8-4.720.200.2638522427-0.2

    196711967.08333333337.663.99.470.100.6570302234-0.1

    196721967.16666666677.693.84.70-0.101.31752305670

    196731967.257.673.8-3.120.001.3210039630

    196741967.33333333337.673.80.000.001.18733509230

    196751967.41666666677.713.86.260.001.3140604468-0.1

    196761967.57.723.91.560.101.3123359580.1

    196771967.58333333337.753.84.66-0.101.57273918740

    196781967.66666666677.733.8-3.100.002.24867724870

    196791967.757.793.89.310.001.43229166670.1

    1967101967.83333333337.841.540.202.22804718220.3

    1967111967.91666666677.813.91.54-0.102.35910878110.3

    19671219687.763.8-7.68-0.102.10526315790

    196811968.08333333337.823.79.28-0.102.088772846-0.2

    196821968.16666666677.853.84.600.102.08062418730

    196831968.257.843.7-1.53-0.102.2164276402-0.1

    196841968.33333333337.843.50.00-0.202.2164276402-0.3

    196851968.41666666677.913.510.710.002.5940337224-0.3

    196861968.57.893.7-3.030.202.2020725389-0.2

    196871968.58333333337.873.7-3.040.001.5483870968-0.1

    196881968.66666666677.883.51.52-0.201.9404915912-0.3

    196891968.757.993.416.75-0.102.567394095-0.4

    1968101968.83333333337.983.4-1.500.002.3076923077-0.6

    1968111968.91666666677.963.4-3.010.001.9206145967-0.5

    19681219697.963.40.000.002.5773195876-0.4

    196911969.08333333337.973.41.510.001.9181585678-0.3

    196921969.16666666677.963.4-1.510.001.4012738854-0.4

    196931969.257.923.4-6.030.001.0204081633-0.3

    196941969.33333333337.933.41.520.001.1479591837-0.1

    196951969.41666666677.993.49.080.001.0113780025-0.1

    196961969.583.51.500.101.3941698352-0.2

    196971969.58333333337.983.5-3.000.001.3977128335-0.2

    196981969.66666666677.973.5-1.500.001.14213197970

    196991969.758.083.716.560.201.126408010.3

    1969101969.83333333338.063.7-2.970.001.00250626570.3

    1969111969.91666666678.053.5-1.49-0.201.13065326630.1

    19691219707.983.5-10.430.000.25125628140.1

    197011970.08333333337.983.90.000.400.12547051440.5

    197021970.16666666677.994.21.500.300.37688442210.8

    197031970.258.014.43.000.201.13636363641

    197041970.33333333337.974.6-5.990.200.50441361921.2

    197051970.416666666784.84.520.200.12515644561.4

    197061970.58.014.91.500.100.1251.4

    197071970.583333333385-1.500.100.25062656641.5

    197081970.66666666678.025.13.000.100.62735257211.6

    197091970.758.085.48.980.3001.7

    1970101970.83333333338.045.5-5.940.10-0.24813895781.8

    1970111970.916666666785.9-5.970.40-0.62111801242.4

    19701219718.016.11.500.200.37593984962.6

    197111971.08333333338.095.911.99-0.201.37844611532

    197121971.16666666678.125.94.450.001.62703379221.7

    197131971.258.1462.960.101.62297128591.6

    197141971.33333333338.155.91.47-0.102.25846925971.3

    197151971.41666666678.195.95.890.002.3751.1

    197161971.58.195.90.000.002.24719101121

    197171971.58333333338.261.470.102.51

    197181971.66666666678.236.14.390.102.61845386531

    197191971.758.32613.12-0.102.97029702970.6

    1971101971.83333333338.335.81.44-0.203.60696517410.3

    1971111971.91666666678.286-7.200.203.50.1

    19711219728.3367.250.003.9950062422-0.1

    197211972.08333333338.435.814.41-0.204.2027194067-0.1

    197221972.16666666678.415.7-2.85-0.103.5714285714-0.2

    197231972.258.445.84.280.103.6855036855-0.2

    197241972.33333333338.495.77.11-0.104.1717791411-0.2

    197251972.41666666678.55.71.410.003.7851037851-0.2

    197261972.58.485.7-2.820.003.5409035409-0.2

    197271972.58333333338.55.62.83-0.103.6585365854-0.4

    197281972.66666666678.535.64.240.003.645200486-0.5

    197291972.758.615.511.25-0.103.4855769231-0.5

    1972101972.83333333338.635.62.790.103.6014405762-0.2

    1972111972.91666666678.595.3-5.56-0.303.7439613527-0.7

    19721219738.625.24.19-0.103.481392557-0.8

    197311973.08333333338.624.90.00-0.302.2538552788-0.9

    197321973.16666666678.595-4.180.102.1403091558-0.7

    197331973.258.564.9-4.19-0.101.4218009479-0.9

    197341973.33333333338.5751.400.100.9422850412-0.7

    197351973.41666666678.574.90.00-0.100.8235294118-0.8

    197361973.58.564.9-1.400.000.9433962264-0.8

    197371973.58333333338.614.87.01-0.101.2941176471-0.8

    197381973.66666666678.424.8-26.480.00-1.2895662368-0.8

    197391973.758.574.821.380.00-0.4645760743-0.7

    1973101973.83333333338.524.6-7.00-0.20-1.2746234067-1

    1973111973.91666666678.494.8-4.230.20-1.1641443539-0.5

    19731219748.444.9-7.070.10-2.0881670534-0.3

    197411974.08333333338.415.1-4.270.20-2.43619489560.2

    197421974.16666666678.355.2-8.560.10-2.79394644940.2

    197431974.258.285.1-10.06-0.10-3.27102803740.2

    197441974.33333333338.275.1-1.450.00-3.50058343060.1

    197451974.41666666678.315.15.800.00-3.03383897320.2

    197461974.58.315.40.000.30-2.92056074770.5

    197471974.58333333338.275.5-5.780.10-3.94889663180.7

    197481974.66666666678.235.5-5.800.00-2.25653206650.7

    197491974.758.325.913.120.40-2.91715285881.1

    1974101974.83333333338.266-8.650.10-3.05164319251.4

    1974111974.91666666678.196.6-10.170.60-3.53356890461.8

    19741219758.167.2-4.400.60-3.3175355452.3

    197511975.08333333338.158.1-1.470.90-3.09155766943

    197521975.16666666678.118.1-5.890.00-2.8742514972.9

    197531975.258.128.61.480.50-1.93236714983.5

    197541975.33333333338.118.8-1.480.20-1.93470374853.7

    197551975.41666666678.1291.480.20-2.28640192543.9

    197561975.58.118.8-1.48-0.20-2.40673886883.4

    197571975.58333333338.048.6-10.36-0.20-2.78113663853.1

    197581975.66666666678.098.47.46-0.20-1.70109356012.9

    197591975.758.178.411.870.00-1.80288461542.5

    1975101975.83333333338.138.4-5.880.00-1.57384987892.4

    1975111975.91666666678.128.3-1.48-0.10-0.85470085471.7

    19751219768.118.2-1.48-0.10-0.6127450981

    197611976.08333333338.157.95.92-0.300-0.2

    197621976.16666666678.177.72.94-0.200.7398273736-0.4

    197631976.258.177.60.00-0.100.6157635468-1

    197641976.33333333338.167.7-1.470.100.6165228113-1.1

    197651976.41666666678.217.47.35-0.301.1083743842-1.6

    197661976.58.187.6-4.380.200.8631319359-1.2

    197671976.58333333338.197.81.470.201.8656716418-0.8

    197681976.66666666678.227.84.400.001.6069221261-0.6

    197691976.758.337.616.06-0.201.9583843329-0.8

    1976101976.83333333338.37.7-4.320.102.0910209102-0.7

    1976111976.91666666678.347.85.780.102.7093596059-0.5

    19761219778.337.8-1.440.002.7127003699-0.4

    197711977.08333333338.347.51.44-0.302.3312883436-0.4

    197721977.16666666678.317.6-4.320.101.7135862913-0.1

    197731977.258.37.4-1.44-0.201.5911872705-0.2

    197741977.33333333338.37.20.00-0.201.7156862745-0.5

    197751977.41666666678.3272.89-0.201.3398294762-0.4

    197761977.58.297.2-4.330.201.3447432763-0.4

    197771977.58333333338.296.90.00-0.301.221001221-0.9

    197781977.66666666678.287-1.450.100.7299270073-0.8

    197791977.758.396.815.94-0.200.7202881152-0.8

    1977101977.83333333338.446.87.150.001.686746988-0.9

    1977111977.91666666678.416.8-4.270.000.8393285372-1

    19771219788.396.4-2.85-0.400.7202881152-1.4

    197811978.08333333338.466.410.010.001.4388489209-1.1

    197821978.16666666678.446.3-2.84-0.101.5643802647-1.3

    197831978.258.426.3-2.840.001.4457831325-1.1

    197841978.33333333338.436.11.43-0.201.5662650602-1.1

    197851978.41666666678.396-5.69-0.100.8413461538-1

    197861978.58.365.9-4.29-0.100.8443908323-1.3

    197871978.58333333338.376.21.440.300.9650180941-0.7

    197881978.66666666678.345.9-4.30-0.300.7246376812-1.1

    197891978.758.45615.830.100.7151370679-0.8

    1978101978.83333333338.435.8-2.84-0.20-0.1184834123-1

    1978111978.91666666678.415.9-2.850.100-0.9

    19781219798.4160.000.100.2383790226-0.4

    197911979.08333333338.425.91.43-0.10-0.4728132388-0.5

    197921979.16666666678.375.9-7.130.00-0.8293838863-0.4

    197931979.258.35.8-10.04-0.10-1.4251781473-0.5

    197941979.33333333338.225.8-11.570.00-2.4911032028-0.3

    197951979.41666666678.195.6-4.38-0.20-2.3837902265-0.4

    197961979.58.145.7-7.330.10-2.6315789474-0.2

    197971979.58333333338.095.7-7.370.00-3.3452807646-0.5

    197981979.66666666678.056-5.930.30-3.47721822540.1

    197991979.758.135.911.93-0.10-3.7869822485-0.1

    1979101979.83333333338.086-7.380.10-4.15183867140.2

    1979111979.91666666678.055.9-4.46-0.10-4.28061831150

    19791219808.016-5.960.10-4.75624256840

    198011980.08333333337.956.3-8.990.30-5.58194774350.4

    198021980.16666666677.886.3-10.570.00-5.85424133810.4

    198031980.257.826.3-9.140.00-5.78313253010.5

    198041980.33333333337.776.9-7.670.60-5.47445255471.1

    198051980.41666666677.737.5-6.180.60-5.61660561661.9

    198061980.57.697.6-6.210.10-5.52825552831.9

    198071980.58333333337.727.84.680.20-4.57354758962.1

    198081980.66666666677.727.70.00-0.10-4.0993788821.7

    198091980.757.787.59.33-0.20-4.30504305041.6

    1980101980.83333333337.87.53.080.00-3.46534653471.5

    1980111980.91666666677.787.5-3.080.00-3.35403726711.6

    19801219817.747.2-6.17-0.30-3.37078651691.2

    198111981.08333333337.797.57.750.30-2.01257861641.2

    198121981.16666666677.737.4-9.24-0.10-1.90355329951.1

    198131981.257.737.40.000.00-1.15089514071.1

    198141981.33333333337.717.2-3.10-0.20-0.77220077220.3

    198151981.41666666677.697.5-3.110.30-0.51746442430

    198161981.57.677.5-3.120.00-0.2600780234-0.1

    198171981.58333333337.617.2-9.39-0.30-1.4248704663-0.6

    198181981.66666666677.627.41.580.20-1.2953367876-0.3

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    1983111983.91666666677.828.51.54-0.301.5584415584-2.3

    19831219847.828.30.00-0.201.0335917313-2.5

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    19961219977.55.46.430.000.6711409396-0.2

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    199721997.16666666677.515.30.000.001.0767160162-0.2

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    199761997.57.55-1.600.101.4884979702-0.3

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    199781997.66666666677.514.83.200.001.7615176152-0.3

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    1997111997.91666666677.674.69.46-0.102.8150134048-0.8

    19971219987.674.70.000.102.2666666667-0.7

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    199951999.41666666677.864.23.06-0.101.8134715026-0.2

    199961999.57.834.3-4.580.101.8205461638-0.2

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    200072000.58333333337.8444.610.000.3841229193-0.3

  • *[email protected]*Why learn macroeconomics?The macroeconomy affects politics & current events.Inflation and unemployment in election yearsyear U rate inflation rate elec. outcome19767.7%5.8%Carter (D)19807.1%13.5%Reagan (R)19847.5%4.3%Reagan (R)19885.5%4.1%Bush I (R)19927.5%3.0%Clinton (D)19965.4%3.3%Clinton (D)20004.0%3.4%Bush II (R)

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  • *[email protected]*Economic modelsare simplified versions of a more complex realityirrelevant details are stripped awayUsed to show the relationships between economic variablesexplain the economys behaviordevise policies to improve economic performance

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  • *[email protected]*Example: The supply & demand for new carsexplains the factors that determine the price of cars and the quantity soldassumes the market is competitive: each buyer and seller is too small to affect the market priceVariables:Q d = quantity of cars that buyers demandQ s = quantity that producers supplyP = price of new carsY = aggregate incomePs = price of steel (an input)shows that the quantity of cars consumers demand is related to the price of cars and aggregate income.

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  • *[email protected]*The effects of an increase in income:An increase in income increases the quantity of cars consumers demand at each price...which increases the equilibrium price and quantity.

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  • *[email protected]*The effects of a steel price increase:An increase in Ps reduces the quantity of cars producers supply at each pricewhich increases the market price and reduces the quantity.

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  • *[email protected]*APBN 2008

    AccountAPBNAPBN-PRealisasi%Pendapatan dan Hibah781.35894.99981.82109.70Belanja Negara854.66989.49985.2699.57Keseimbangan Primer18.060.2985.1893.49Surplus / (Defisit) Anggaran(73.31)(94.50)(3.44)3.64Pembiayaan73.3194.5083.770.00Kelebihan / (Kekurangan) Pembiayaan0.000.0080.330.00

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  • *[email protected]**[email protected]*Governments assumptions

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    didiksusetyo*didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*This slide and the next contain a list of some topical issues that macro can help students understand. Feel free to substitute others as new issues emerge. didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*This graph shows data on U.S. Gross Domestic Product. For now, it suffices for students to know that GDP is a measure of the economys total output and total income, and that the data in this chart have been adjusted to take out the effects of inflation. (In Chapter 2, students will learn the exact definition of GDP, how its measured, and how its corrected for inflation).

    There are two main points students should get from this graph.

    First, over the long run, theres a clear upward trend. One of the most important issues in macroeconomics is understanding this long run growth: what determines how fast a country grows over the long run, how do government policies affect the growth rate, and how could we achieve faster growth? This topic is critical, because its very tightly linked to our standard of living.

    (continued next slide.)

    didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*Source: Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison, The Deindustrialization of America (New York: Basic Books, 1982), Chapter 3, cited in Robert J. Gordon, Macroeconomics, 4th edition (Boston: Little, Brown and Company), p.334. If you know of more recent estimates, please email me so I can update this slide!!! Thanks! (My email address is [email protected])

    It might be useful to briefly define the unemployment rate so that students will be able to understand this and the next few slides.

    didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*Macroeconomics helps students understand forces that will affect their financial well-being. Heres an example.

    When the unemployment rate is rising, tens or hundreds of thousands of people are losing their jobs. Hopefully our students will not be among them. But the rising unemployment rate even affects those who dont lose their jobs. As the graph shows, during most years there is a clear negative relationship between the (12-month) change in unemployment and the annual growth rate of real wages. In plain English, rising unemployment is associated with falling (and often negative) wage growth. So when the economy goes into recession, even if our students get to keep their jobs, they will find it much harder to get a raise, and may have to accept a real wage cut.

    Students find this relationship intuitive. When unemployment is rising, the supply of workers is rising faster than demand, so wages grow more slowly or even fall. Conversely, falling unemployment gives workers more bargaining power over wages, as it becomes increasingly hard for employers to replace their workers, and increasingly easy for workers to find good opportunities with other companies. didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*Id also suggest you briefly define the inflation rate (as the percentage increase in the cost of living) to help students understand this slide.

    Main point of this data: The state of the economy has a huge impact on election outcomes. When the economy is doing poorly, there tends to be a change in the party that controls the White House.

    1976: The rates of inflation () and unemployment (u) both high. Incumbent (Ford, R) loses.1980: u still high, even higher. Incumbent (Carter, D) loses. 1984: u still high, but much lower. Incumbent (Reagan) wins. 1988: the same, u much lower. Incumbent party wins. 1992: low, but u much higher (and was higher yet in 1991). Incumbent loses. 1996: u much lower, incumbent wins.2000: Economy doing great, and incumbent party candidate (Gore, D) wins majority of popular vote, but loses electoral college to challenger.

    didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*Students will realize that the auto market is not competitive. However, if all we want to know is how an increase in the price of steel or a fall in consumer income affects the price and quantity of autos, then its fine to use this model.

    In general, making unrealistic assumptions is okay, even desirable, if they simplify the analysis without affecting its validity.

    didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*didiksusetyodidiksusetyo*didiksusetyodidiksusetyo**didiksusetyo