Materi After UTS Risiko Negara (Country Risk)
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Transcript of Materi After UTS Risiko Negara (Country Risk)
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CARA MENGHITUNG RISIKO NEGARA (COUNTRY RISK)DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*PENDAHULUANCountry Risk suatu negara mempengaruhi ekspektasi masyarakat terhadap perekonomian negara yang bersangkutan, yang tercermin dari keputusan-keputusan investasi yang dilakukan di negara tersebut. Makin tinggi resiko suatu negara maka akan semakin beresiko untuk melakukan investasi di negara tersebut.Tingginya resiko negara juga menurunkan kepercayaan investor asing dan pemilik modal untuk memegang mata uang negara yang bersangkutan, yang pada akhirnya menimbulkan tekanan pada mata uang tersebut, sehingga mata uang negara yang bersangkutan mengalami depresiasi nilai tukar. DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*KOMPONEN PENILIAN RISIKO NEGARARisiko Politik Untuk mengukur risiko negara, selanjutnya selanjutnya dibuat suatu indeksasi risiko negara, yang terdiri dari ketiga indeks komponen tersebut.Risiko Keuangan Risiko Ekonomi Menurut International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), dalam menilai country risk suatu negara terdiri dari tiga komponen resiko, yaitu:DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIKResiko politik memperlihatkan tingkat kestabilitas politik yang dicapai suatu negara pada waktu tertentu. Kestabilan politik ini dilihat dari berbagai segi, seperti: stabilitas pemerintah, kondisi sosial ekonomi, profil investasi, konflik internal maupun eksternal, korupsi, peran militer dalam politik, peran agama dalam politik, hukum dan peraturan, ketegangan etnik, pertanggung-jawaban demokrasi, dan kualitas birokrasi. Semakin tinggi kemampuan suatu negara dalam menjaga stabilitas politik, semakin besar poin indeks resiko politiknya, yang berarti semakin rendah resiko politik pada negara yang bersangkutan DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO KEUANGANResiko keuangan memperlihatkan kemampuan suatu negara dalam mengelola keuangan pemerintah, dan kemampuan dalam membayar kewajiban-kewajiban utang perdagangan. Kemampuan suatu negara dalam mengelola keuangannya dapat dilihat dari segi; persentase utang terhadap GDP, persentase pembayaran utang terhadap total ekspor, persentase current account terhadap ekspor, kemampuan berapa bulan cadangan resmi pemerintah dalam meng-cover impor, dan stabilitas nilai tukar.Semakin tinggi kemampuan mereka dalam mengelola keuangan, semakin besar poin indeks resiko finansialnya, yang berarti semakin rendah resiko keuangan negara yang bersangkutan. DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO EKONOMIResiko ekonomi memperlihatkan penilaian terhadap kekuatan dan kelemahan ekonomi suatu negara.Kuat lemahnya ekonomi suatu negara dapat diukur dari indikator; persentase PDB per kapita terhadap GDP seluruh negara, tingkat pertumbuhan PDB riil, tingkat inflasi tahunan, APBN sebagai persentase dari PDB, dan persentase current account terhadap PDB. Apabila kekuatan ekonomi suatu negara lebih besar dari kelemahannya, maka akan menghasilkan resiko ekonomi yang rendah, dan jika kelemahan lebih besar dibandingkan kekuatannya tentu saja akan menghasilkan resiko ekonomi yang tinggi. DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*KOMPONEN DAN SUB KOMPONEN
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1-*FORMULA INDEKS RISIKO NEGARA Formula yang digunakan untuk menghitung country risk index (CRI), sebagaimana rumus yang diberikan oleh ICRG, sebagai berikut :Dimana: CRI =Country risk indexPR= Total political risk indikatorER=Total economic risk indikatorFR=Total financial risk indikator CRI = 0,5 * (PR + ER + FR) . (1) DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*FORMULA INDEKS RISIKO NEGARANegara yang memiliki nilai poin tinggi berarti di negara tersebut mengandung tingkat resiko yang rendah Negara yang memiliki nilai poin rendah berarti di negara yang bersangkutan mengandung tingkat resiko yang tinggi Besarnya poin untuk indek resiko negara (CRI) merupakan kombinasi dari ketiga resiko di atas, yang secara keseluruhan berkisar antara 0 sampai dengan 100 poin, dengan kriteria ; DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*TINGKATAN RISIKO NEGARATingkatan Resiko Gabungan 3 Komponen Risiko Sumber: Political Risk Service (PRS) Group and ICRG, 2001 DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
KeteranganBesarnya Poin CRIRisiko Sangat Tinggi 0 49,9Risiko Tinggi50 59,9 Risiko Moderat60 69,9 Risiko Rendah70 79,9 Risiko Sangat Rendah80 100
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*TINGKATAN RISIKO NEGARAKriteria Tingkatan Resiko Politik, Finansial, dan Ekonomi Sumber: Political Risk Service (PRS) Group and ICRG, 2001 DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK Stabilitas Pemerintah - 12 Merupakan penilaian terhadap kemampuan pemerintah untuk melaksanakan program yang dicanangkan dan kemampuan untuk menjaga keberlanjutan pemerintahan.Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin sama dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Kesatuan pemerintah 4 poinKekuatan legistatif 4 poinDukungan populer 4 poin DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont.)Kondisi Sosial Ekonomi - 12 Merupakan penilaian dari tekanan sosial-ekonomi di tempat kerja dalam masyarakat yang dapat membatasi aksi pemerintah atau penyebab ketidakpuasan sosial.Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin samna dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Pengangguran 4 poinKeyakinan Konsumen 4 poinKemiskinan 4 poin DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Profil Investasi - 12 Merupakan penilaian faktor yang mempengaruhi risiko investasi yang tidak tercakup oleh komponen risiko politik, komponen risiko ekonomi dan keuangan.Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin sama dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Keberlangsungan/ Perampasan Kontrak 4 poinPengembalian Keuntungan 4 poinPenundaan Pembayaran 4 poin DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Konflik Internal - 12 merupakan penilaian kekerasan politik di negeri dan berbagai dampak aktual atau potensial yang ditimbulkan bagi pemerintahan. Peringkat tertinggi diberikan kepada negara-negara dimana tidak ada oposisi bersenjata kepada pemerintah dan pemerintah tidak melakukan kekerasan sewenang-wenang, langsung atau tidak langsung, terhadap penduduknya .Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin sama dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Perang Sipil 4 poinTerorisme/ Kekerasan Politik 4 poinGangguan Sipil 4 poin DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Konflik Eksternal - 12 Ukuran konflik eksternal adalah penilaian terhadap risiko pemerintah yang berkuasa dari tindakan asing, mulai dari tekanan eksternal non-kekerasan (tekanan diplomatik, pemotongan bantuan, pembatasan perdagangan, sengketa teritorial, sanksi, dll) maupun tekanan eksternal kekerasan (konflik di perbatasan yang mengarah pada perang).Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin sama dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Perang 4 poinKonflik di Perbatasan 4 poinTekanan Asing 4 poin Konflik eksternal dapat mempengaruhi usaha asing dalam banyak hal, mulai dari pembatasan operasi, sanksi perdagangan dan investasi, distorsi dalam alokasi sumber daya ekonomi, dan mengubah kekerasan dalam struktur masyarakat. DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Korupsi - 6 Merupakan penilaian korupsi dalam sistem politik. Korupsi seperti ini merupakan ancaman bagi investasi asing karena beberapa alasan, diantaranya: mendistorsi ekonomi dan lingkungan keuangan, mengurangi efisiensi pemerintah dan bisnis dengan memungkinkan orang untuk mengasumsikan posisi kekuasaan melalui perlindungan daripada kemampuan, dan, tidak kalah pentingnya adalah memperkenalkan sebuah ketidakstabilan yang melekat dalam proses politik.Jenis korupsi demikian sangat berbahaya dan memiliki potensi risiko lebih besar bagi bisnis asing, dimana dapat menyebabkan ketidakpuasan populer, kontrol tidak realistis dan tidak efisien terhadap perekonomian negara, dan mendorong perkembangan pasar gelap.Bentuk yang paling umum dari korupsi yang berkaitan langsung dengan bisnis adalah korupsi keuangan dalam bentuk tuntutan untuk pembayaran khusus dan suap terhubung dengan izin impor dan ekspor, kontrol devisa, ketetapan pajak, perlindungan polisi, atau pinjaman. Korupsi tersebut menyebabkan sulitnya untuk melakukan usaha secara efektif, dan dalam beberapa kasus memiliki kekuatan penarikan atau menahan investasi.Risiko terbesar dalam korupsi tersebut adalah bahwa pada suatu waktu akan mengemuka, atau beberapa skandal besar tiba-tiba akan terungkapkan dan memicu reaksi yang populer, sehingga dapat menjatuhkan atau menggulingkan pemerintah. Sebuah reorganisasi besar atau restrukturisasi lembaga politik negara, atau, paling buruk, gangguan dalam hukum dan ketertiban, dan membuat negara tak terkendali.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Militer dalam Politik - 6 Militer tidak dipilih oleh siapapun. Oleh karena itu, keterlibatannya dalam politik, bahkan pada tingkat perangkat, adalah penurunan akuntabilitas demokratis .Sebuah pengambilalihan militer atau ancaman pengambilalihan juga dapat merupakan risiko tinggi jika itu merupakan indikasi bahwa pemerintah tidak dapat berfungsi secara efektif dan bahwa negara itu memiliki lingkungan tidak nyaman untuk bisnis asing .Pihak militer mungkin, terlibat dalam pemerintahan karena ancaman internal atau eksternal dalam waktu dekat. Situasi demikian akan berarti distorsi kebijakan pemerintah dalam rangka memenuhi ancaman ini, misalnya dengan meningkatkan anggaran pertahanan dengan mengorbankan alokasi anggaran lainnya .Sebuah rezim militer berskala penuh menimbulkan risiko terbesar. Dalam jangka pendek rezim militer dapat memberikan stabilitas baru dan dengan demikian mengurangi risiko usaha. Namun, dalam jangka panjang risiko hampir pasti akan naik, sebagian karena sistem pemerintahan akan menjadi rusak dan sebagian lagi karena kelanjutan pemerintahan semacam ini cenderung untuk menciptakan oposisi bersenjata .DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Ketegangan Agama - 6 Ketegangan agama mungkin berasal dari dominasi masyarakat dan / atau pemerintahan oleh sekelompok agama tunggal yang berusaha untuk menggantikan hukum perdata dengan hukum agama dan untuk mengecualikan agama-agama lain dari proses politik dan / atau sosial; keinginan sebuah kelompok keagamaan tunggal untuk mendominasi pemerintahan; penindasan dari kebebasan beragama; keinginan dari kelompok agama untuk mengekspresikan identitasnya sendiri, terpisah dari negara secara keseluruhan.Risiko yang terlibat dalam situasi ini berkisar dari orang-orang yang berpengaruh, memaksakan kebijakan tidak tepat melalui perbedaan pendapat sipil dalam perang saudara.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Hukum dan Ketertiban - 6 Hukum dan Ketertiban dinilai secara terpisah, dengan setiap sub-komponen yang terdiri dari nol hingga tiga poin.
Hukum sub-komponen penilaian terhadap kekuatan dan ketidakberpihakan sistem hukum, Sementara Ketertiban sub-komponen merupakan penilaian ketaatan populer hukum.
Dengan demikian, suatu negara dapat menikmati rating tinggi - 3 - dalam hal sistem peradilan, tetapi peringkat rendah - 1 - jika menderita tingkat kejahatan sangat tinggi jika hukum secara rutin diabaikan tanpa sanksi yang efektif (misalnya, secara luas aksi mogok ilegal) .DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Ketegangan Etnik - 6 Komponen ini merupakan penilaian tingkat ketegangan di dalam sebuah negara yang timbul ras, kebangsaan, atau divisi bahasa.
Peringkat yang lebih rendah diberikan kepada negara di mana ketegangan rasial dan kebangsaan yang tinggi karena kelompok-kelompok yang menentang tidak toleran dan tidak mau berkompromi.
Peringkat yang lebih tinggi diberikan kepada negara-negara dimana ketegangan yang minimal, meskipun perbedaan tersebut mungkin masih ada.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Pertanggungjawaban Demokrasi - 6 Ini adalah ukuran tentang bagaimana pemerintah responsif adalah untuk rakyatnya, atas dasar bahwa kurang responsif itu adalah, semakin besar kemungkinan bahwa pemerintah akan jatuh, damai dalam masyarakat demokratis, tapi mungkin kekerasan dalam satu non-demokratis.Pertanggungjawaban Demokrasi - 6 Kekuatan kelembagaan dan kualitas birokrasi merupakan peredam kejut yang cenderung meminimalkan revisi kebijakan ketika pemerintah berubah. Oleh karena itu, poin tinggi diberikan kepada negara-negara dimana birokrasi memiliki kekuatan dan keahlian untuk memerintah tanpa perubahan drastis dalam kebijakan atau gangguan dalam pelayanan pemerintah. Dalam negara berisiko rendah, birokrasi cenderung agak otonom dari tekanan politik dan memiliki mekanisme perekrutan dan pelatihan yang baik terhadap kelembagaannya.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO KEUANGAN Rasio ULN Terhadap GDP - 10Memperkirakan ULN (dalam US$) pada tahun tertentu, dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari GDP (dalam US$) pada tahun yang sama. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut:DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
ULNRatio (%) thp GDPPoin0.0 to 4.910.05.0 to 9.99.510.0 to 14.99.015.0 to 19.98.520 to 24.98.025.0 to 29.97.530.0 to 34.97.035.0 to 39.96.540.0 to 44.96.045.0 to 49.95.550.0 59.95.060.0 to 69.94.570.0 to 79.94.080.0 to 89.93.590.0 to 99.93.0100.0 to 109.92.5110.0 to 119.92.0120.0 to 129.91.5130.0 to 149.91.0150.0 to 199.90.5200.0 plus0.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO KEUANGAN (Cont) Rasio Pembayaran ULN terhadap Ekspor Barang dan Jasa - 10
Memperkirakan Pembayaran ULN (dalam US$) pada tahun tertentu, dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari Ekspor barang dan Jasa (dalam US$) pada tahun yang sama. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut :DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
Debt Service % XGSRatio (%)Points0.0 to 4.910.05.0 to 8.99.59.0 to 12.99.013.0 to 16.98.517.0 to 20.98.021.0 to 24.97.525.0 to 28.97.029.0 to 32.96.533.0 to 36.96.037.0 to 40.95.541.0 to 44.95.045.0 to 48.94.549.0 to 52.94.053.0 to 56.93.557.0 to 60.93.061.0 to 65.92.566.0 to 70.92.071.0 to 75.91.576.0 to 79.91.080.0 to 84.90.585.0 plus0.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*Rasio CA terhadap Ekspor Barang dan Jasa - 15
Memperkirakan Rasio CA (dalam US$) pada tahun tertentu, dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari Ekspor barang dan Jasa (dalam US$) pada tahun yang sama. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut.RISIKO KEUANGAN (Cont) DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
Current Account as % XGSRatio (%)Points25.0 plus15.020.0 to 24.914.515.0 to 19.914.010.0 to 14.913.55.0 to 9.913.00.0 to 4.912.5-0.1 to 4.912.0-5.0 to 9.911.5-10.0 to -14.911.0-15.0 to 19.910.5-20.0 to 24.910.0-25.0 to 29.99.5-30.0 to 34.99.0-35.0 to 39.98.5-40.0 to 44.98.0-45.0 - to 49.97.5-50.0 to 54.97.0-55.0 to 59.96.5-60.0 to 64.96.0-65.0 to 69.95.5-70.0 to 74.95.0-75.0 to 79.94.5-80.0 to 84.94.0-85.0 to 89.93.5-90.0 to 94.93.0-95.0 to 99.92.5-100.0 to 104.92.0-105.0 to 109.91.5-110.0 to 114.91.0-115.0 to 119.90.5Below 120.00.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO KEUANGAN (Cont) Cadangan Devisa dalam Bulan Impor - 5
Merupakan Cadangan Devisa yang dimiliki oleh suatu negara (dalam US$) pada tahun tertentu, dinyatakan dalam banyaknya bulan impor yang dapat di-cover oleh cadangan tersebut. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
Net Liquidity in MonthsBanyaknya BulanPoin15 plus5.012.0 to 4.94.59.0 to 11.94.06.0 to 8.93.55.0 to 5.93.04.0 to 4.92.53.0 to 3.92.02.0 to 2.91.51.0 to 1.91.00.6 to 0.90.50.0 to 0.5.90.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*RISIKO KEUANGAN (Cont) Stabilitas Nilai Tukar - 10
Merupakan apresiasi atau depresiasi nilai tukar suatu negara terhadap US$ dalam periode 12 bulan terakhir sebagai persentase perubahan. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut:DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
Stabilitas Nilai TukarPerubahan ApresiasiPerubahan DepresiasiPoin0.0 to 9.9-0.1 to 4.910.010.0 to 14.9-5.0 to -7.49.514.5 to 19.9-7.5 to -9.99.020.0 to 22.4-10.0 to -12.48.522.5 to 24.9-12.5 to -14.98.024.9 to 27.4-15.0 to -17.47.527.5 to 29.9-17.5 to -19.97.030.0 to 34.9-20.0 to -22.46.535.0 to 39.9-22.5 to -24.96.040.0 to 49.9-25.0 to -29.95.550 plus-30.0 to -34.95.0-35.0 to -39.94.5-40.0 to -44.94.0-45.0 to -49.93.5-50.0 to -54.93.0-55.0 to -59.92.5-60.0 to -69.92.0-70.0 to -79.91.5-80.0 to -89.91.0-90.0 to -99.90.5-100 plus0.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
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1-*GDP PER KAPITA - 5GDP Per Kapita dihitung untuk tahun tertentu dan di konversi ke dalam US Dolar, di ekspresikan sebagai persentase dari rata-rata perkiraan total GDP untuk seluruh negara. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut:RISIKO EKONOMI DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
GDP Per Kapita% dari rata-rataPoin250.0 lebih5.0200.0 - 249.94.5150.0 - 199.94.0100.0 - 149.93.575.0 - 99.93.050.0 - 74.92.540.0 - 49.92.030.0 - 39.91.520.0 - 29.91.010.0 - 19.90.5Hingga 9.90.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
-
1-*RISIKO EKONOMI (Cont) Pertumbuhan GDP Riil - 10
Merupakan perubahan tahunan dalam estimasi GDP, yang didasarkan atas harga konstan dari negara tertentu, dinyatakan sebagai persentase peningkatan atau penurunan.. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut :DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
Pertumbuhan GDP RiilChange (%)Poin6.0 lebih10.05.0 to 5.99.54.0 to 4.99.03.0 to 3.98.52.5 to 2.98.02.0 to 2.47.51.5 to 1.97.01.0 to 1.46.50.5 to 0.96.00.0 to 0.45.5-0.1 to -0.45.0-0.5 to -0.94.5-1.0 to -1.44.0-1.5 to -1.93.5-2.0 to -2.43.0-2.5 to -2.92.5-3.0 to -3.42.0-3.5 to -3.91.5-4.0 to -4.91.0-5.0 to -5.90.5-6.0 lebih0.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
-
1-*Tingkat Inflasi Tahunan - 10
Perkiraan tingkat inflasi tahunan (atas dasar CPI) dihitung sebagai persentase perubahan. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut.RISIKO EKONOMI (Cont) DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
Rata-rata Inflasi TahunanPerubahan (%)Poin0.0 to 1.910.02.0 to 2.99.53.0 to 3.99.04.0 to 5.98.56.0 to 7.98.08.0 to 9.97.510.0 to 11.97.012.0 to 13.96.514.0 to 15.96.016.0 to 18.95.519.0 to 21.95.022.0 to 24.94.525.0 to 30.94.031.0 to 40.93.541.0 to 50.93.051.0 to 65.92.566.0 to 80.92.081.0 to 95.91.596.0 to 110.91.0111.0 to 129.90.5130.0 plus0.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
-
1-*RISIKO EKONOMI (Cont) % APBN Terhadap GDP - 10
Perkiraan APBN (termasuk Hibah) untuk tahun tertentu dalam mata uang negara tersebut, dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari GDP. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut :DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
APBN% GDPPoin4.0 plus10.03.0 to 3.99.52.0 to 2.99.01.0 to 1.98.50.0 to 0.98.0-0.1 to -0.97.5-1.0 to -1.97.0-2.0 to -2.96.5-3.0 to -3.96.0-4.0 to -4.95.5-5.0 to -5.95.0-6.0 to -6.94.5-7.0 to -7.94.0-8.0 to -8.93.5-9.0 to -9.93.0-10.0 to -11.92.5-12.0 to -14.92.0-15.0 to -19.91.5-20.0 to -24.91.0-25.0 to -29.90.5-30.0 plus0.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
-
1-*RISIKO EKONOMI (Cont) % CA Terhadap GDP - 15
Merupakan nilai rasio neraca berjalan (dalam US$) untuk tahun tertentu, terhadap GDP (dalam US$) untuk negara yang bersangkutan. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut:DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
Current Account% GDPPoin10.0 plus15.08.0 to 9.914.56.0 to 7.914.04.0 to 5.913.52.0 to 3.913.01.0 to 1.912.50.0 to 0.912.0-0.1 to -0.911.5-1.0 to -1.911.0-2.0 to -3.910.5-4.0 to -5.910.0-6.0 to -7.99.5-8.0 to -9.99.0-10.0 to -11.98.5-12.0 to -13.98.0-14.0 to -15.97.5-16.0 to -16.97.0-17.0 to -17.96.5-18.0 to -18.96.0-19.0 to -19.95.5-20.0 to -20.95.0-21.0 to -21.94.5-22.0 to -22.94.0-23.0 to -23.93.5-24.0 to -24.93.0-25.0 to -26.92.5-27.0 to -29.92.0-30.0 to -32.51.5-32.5 to -34.91.0-35.0 to -39.90.5-40.0 plus0.0
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
-
1-*DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
Chart5
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PRI
Periode
Indeks
ndeks Resiko Politik Negara Indonesia
Master
OBSERPTBTHRRGDPMSNFAIALIATLPULNPUSXMCRIErf
1997:93,275.0020.181.1336,430.6866,258.0067,631.00363.41-597.291,242.001,474.934,707.103,452.5039.003,963.41
1997:103,670.0017.181.1736,561.4367,351.0066,902.00352.88-669.042,190.001,511.444,557.903,459.7038.884,342.71
1997:113,648.0015.161.1936,692.1769,856.0061,043.00342.34-740.791,298.001,547.954,679.003,254.1041.004,227.67
1997:124,650.0012.271.2836,822.9178,343.0067,985.00331.81-812.54-2,852.001,584.454,704.303,178.2039.005,294.49
1998:110,375.008.161.5433,560.1092,800.00146,691.00162.57-800.473,594.001,526.984,149.002,583.1041.0011,915.69
1998:28,750.004.681.6833,168.7592,509.00108,383.00127.61-859.32710.001,549.033,812.202,257.4042.3810,260.25
1998:38,325.0032.041.7732,777.4198,270.00112,930.0092.66-918.181,630.001,571.084,554.702,365.1041.3811,433.56
1998:47,970.0039.241.7732,386.0795,368.00127,655.0057.71-977.03-3,474.001,593.133,652.101,922.9042.1311,444.92
1998:510,525.0047.331.9131,994.73103,941.00174,014.0022.76-1,035.891,104.001,615.183,919.802,023.8041.3816,053.78
1998:614,900.0042.752.1031,603.38109,480.00246,557.00-12.19-1,094.742,723.001,637.234,481.402,150.4043.2521,941.74
1998:713,000.0036.332.2531,212.04105,822.00226,420.00-47.14-1,153.593,005.001,659.274,578.902,444.7043.2518,820.10
1998:811,075.0043.132.3330,820.70104,583.00204,788.00-82.09-1,212.451,140.001,681.324,091.802,182.4044.2516,536.08
1998:910,700.0051.852.4230,429.35102,563.00200,088.00-117.05-1,271.30-4,555.001,703.374,009.402,230.5041.7516,636.36
1998:107,550.0055.582.3730,038.0199,603.00133,661.00-152.00-1,330.165,213.001,725.423,826.602,416.5043.6311,748.56
1998:117,300.0048.882.3529,646.67100,971.00126,004.00-186.95-1,389.01-492.001,747.473,865.402,358.2043.7510,874.08
1998:128,025.0034.412.3629,255.33101,197.00141,677.00-221.90-1,447.864,200.001,769.523,906.302,401.9043.1310,895.54
1999:18,950.0029.482.4831,460.02101,953.00181,235.00-137.50-703.83846.002,151.593,017.901,772.2045.2511,832.80
1999:28,730.0031.322.5431,468.07103,458.00172,240.00-154.09-639.17747.002,229.033,193.101,808.7044.1311,563.76
1999:38,685.0032.152.5431,476.12105,705.00186,989.00-170.68-574.50-2,540.002,306.473,953.001,976.4042.2511,472.02
1999:48,260.0028.732.5231,484.16100,708.00151,590.00-187.27-509.83-3,255.002,383.913,886.102,121.9043.7510,624.01
1999:58,105.0024.602.4631,492.21103,301.00154,006.00-203.86-445.17-882.002,461.343,830.401,959.1042.8810,121.52
1999:66,726.0018.792.4131,500.26105,964.00112,077.00-220.45-380.50-853.002,538.783,595.001,896.3042.758,012.68
1999:76,875.0012.272.3431,508.31106,075.00121,101.00-237.05-315.83-2,066.002,616.224,233.802,007.0042.137,770.13
1999:87,565.007.282.3631,516.35109,564.00137,058.00-253.64-251.17-331.002,693.664,623.802,043.9042.388,167.93
1999:98,386.006.752.3931,524.40118,124.00166,188.00-270.23-186.503,390.002,771.094,537.102,154.9042.258,981.41
1999:106,900.007.432.4031,532.45116,315.00121,070.00-286.82-121.83-1,032.002,848.534,638.202,048.0043.507,404.39
1999:117,425.006.732.3031,540.50117,292.00140,851.00-303.41-57.17-113.002,925.974,457.102,059.7042.757,938.81
1999:127,100.004.452.3631,548.55124,633.00129,096.00-320.007.503,300.003,003.414,487.202,155.0043.887,538.78
2000:17,425.005.632.3932,401.78122,417.00138,940.00-310.18-405.27-3,204.002,258.284,394.002,169.5044.637,918.76
2000:27,505.006.502.3932,539.85122,160.00134,260.00-322.71-414.0599.001,246.004,793.802,120.4047.257,953.80
2000:37,590.005.572.3632,677.93124,663.00137,943.00-335.24-422.84-710.002,515.004,951.402,265.1047.007,984.68
2000:47,945.004.232.4032,816.00127,367.00145,903.00-347.76-431.62-644.001,600.005,012.002,338.9047.508,320.80
2000:58,620.003.512.4432,954.08130,225.00167,931.00-360.29-440.41-1,992.001,786.004,857.902,383.6048.388,985.49
2000:68,735.004.112.4333,092.15133,832.00181,904.00-372.82-449.192,557.003,679.005,346.202,473.5047.389,091.39
2000:79,003.003.132.1133,230.23135,739.00188,969.00-385.35-457.98-1,106.001,380.005,391.002,687.2047.139,379.33
2000:88,290.004.432.4633,368.31136,530.00165,519.00-397.88-466.76-1,277.001,820.005,576.003,236.5048.138,699.53
2000:98,780.005.552.3133,506.38135,430.00177,658.00-410.40-475.55-1,016.001,754.005,772.903,446.2047.389,226.90
2000:109,395.004.192.3333,644.46138,886.00206,401.00-422.93-484.33-807.001,288.005,563.303,488.3048.139,881.66
2000:119,530.004.102.5133,782.53141,204.00210,824.00-435.46-493.11628.001,767.175,239.303,573.9048.0010,040.81
2000:129,595.003.542.5233,920.61162,186.00210,733.00-447.99-501.901,068.001,718.065,226.003,331.6049.1310,116.01
2001:19,450.007.442.4833,756.93145,345.00207,581.00-439.03-315.14-1,496.001,432.004,890.302,941.1045.8810,124.73
2001:29,835.007.962.5733,848.58149,879.00226,194.00-448.25-293.84221.001,338.004,738.603,177.4047.5010,664.09
2001:310,400.008.402.6533,940.23148,375.00248,254.00-457.47-272.55-2,103.001,987.005,238.003,094.4048.2511,343.28
2001:411,675.009.022.7234,031.88154,297.00296,722.00-466.69-251.251,421.001,967.004,785.702,916.0048.1312,735.09
2001:511,058.009.382.7834,123.53155,791.00283,884.00-475.92-229.95262.002,061.004,850.602,912.9049.3812,170.43
2001:611,440.008.992.8634,215.18160,142.00293,223.00-485.14-208.65-1,096.002,418.004,846.702,703.2048.8812,640.06
2001:79,525.008.852.9134,306.83162,154.00232,702.00-494.36-187.35-1,182.001,472.004,865.702,453.3050.7510,543.22
2001:88,865.0011.362.8134,398.49166,851.00180,293.00-503.58-166.05-119.002,231.005,123.802,349.1050.509,890.68
2001:910,435.0012.832.8434,490.14164,237.00203,671.00-512.81-144.75178.002,047.004,350.102,133.0049.1311,793.64
2001:1010,430.0013.492.9534,581.79169,963.00229,202.00-522.03-123.45-1,714.001,113.004,519.502,079.0051.8811,872.47
2001:1110,430.0012.753.0234,673.44171,383.00231,748.00-531.25-102.16-1,102.00562.003,894.702,117.4051.5011,920.45
2001:1210,400.0013.463.0634,765.09177,731.00233,975.00-540.47-80.864,180.001,778.004,350.102,133.0050.7511927.76
ER
OBSER
1997:93,275.00
1997:103,670.00
1997:113,648.00
1997:124,650.00
1998:110,375.00
1998:28,750.00
1998:38,325.00
1998:47,970.00
1998:510,525.00
1998:614,900.00
1998:713,000.00
1998:811,075.00
1998:910,700.00
1998:107,550.00
1998:117,300.00
1998:128,025.00
1999:18,950.00
1999:28,730.00
1999:38,685.00
1999:48,260.00
1999:58,105.00
1999:66,726.00
1999:76,875.00
1999:87,565.00
1999:98,386.00
1999:106,900.00
1999:117,425.00
1999:127,100.00
2000:17,425.00
2000:27,505.00
2000:37,590.00
2000:47,945.00
2000:58,620.00
2000:68,735.00
2000:79,003.00
2000:88,290.00
2000:98,780.00
2000:109,395.00
2000:119,530.00
2000:129,595.00
2001:19,450.00
2001:29,835.00
2001:310,400.00
2001:411,675.00
2001:511,058.00
2001:611,440.00
2001:79,525.00
2001:88,865.00
2001:910,435.00
2001:1010,430.00
2001:1110,430.00
2001:1210,400.00
ER
ER
Periode Penelitian
Rupiah per dollar
Gambar 4.1. Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap US$
PTB
OBSRdep-Inainf-InaRdep-USInf-USOBSr-riil Inar-riil ASPTBData yang digunakan suku Bunga Deposito 1 Bulan
1997:926.581.095.560.251997:925.495.3120.18
1997:1023.881.395.550.251997:1022.495.3017.18
1997:1121.50.795.61-0.061997:1120.715.5515.16
1997:1219.741.725.88-0.121997:1218.025.7612.27
1998:120.386.885.530.191998:113.505.348.16
1998:222.7912.765.530.191998:210.035.344.68
1998:342.925.495.580.191998:337.435.3932.04
1998:449.164.555.560.191998:444.615.3739.24
1998:558.095.385.560.181998:552.715.3847.33
1998:652.834.635.570.121998:648.205.4542.75
1998:750.348.565.570.121998:741.785.4536.33
1998:854.876.305.560.121998:848.575.4443.13
1998:960.973.755.490.121998:957.225.3751.85
1998:1060.85-0.275.240.241998:1060.585.0055.58
1998:1154.120.085.160.001998:1154.045.1648.88
1998:1241.241.425.47-0.061998:1239.825.4134.41
1999:137.12.974.890.241999:134.134.6529.48
1999:237.321.264.860.121999:236.064.7431.32
1999:336.97-0.254.880.301999:336.724.5832.15
1999:433.46-0.614.840.731999:432.854.1128.73
1999:529.72-0.284.840.001999:529.444.8424.60
1999:624.14-0.345.010.001999:623.805.0118.79
1999:718.15-1.055.130.301999:717.104.8312.27
1999:813.22-0.935.250.241999:812.295.017.28
1999:912.44-0.825.340.481999:911.624.866.75
1999:1012.670.065.360.181999:1012.615.187.43
1999:1112.420.255.50.061999:1112.175.446.73
1999:1212.521.736.340.001999:1210.796.344.45
2000:112.391.325.740.302000:111.075.445.63
2000:211.810.075.830.592000:211.745.246.50
2000:311.21-0.456.010.822000:310.765.195.57
2000:410.830.566.10.062000:410.276.044.23
2000:510.730.846.490.122000:59.896.373.51
2000:610.680.506.60.532000:610.186.074.11
2000:710.751.286.570.232000:79.476.343.13
2000:811.490.516.550.002000:810.986.554.43
2000:911.65-0.066.560.522000:911.596.045.55
2000:1011.731.166.550.172000:1010.576.384.19
2000:1111.931.326.570.062000:1110.616.514.10
2000:1212.051.946.62-0.062000:1210.116.563.54
2001:112.970.335.830.632001:112.645.207.44
2001:213.90.875.470.402001:213.035.077.96
2001:314.160.895.090.232001:313.274.868.40
2001:413.850.464.770.402001:413.394.379.02
2001:514.171.134.110.452001:513.043.669.38
2001:614.351.673.860.172001:612.683.698.99
2001:714.452.123.76-0.282001:712.333.488.85
2001:815.16-0.213.590.002001:814.953.5911.36
2001:916.010.642.990.452001:915.372.5412.83
2001:1016.260.682.43-0.342001:1015.582.0913.49
2001:1116.371.712.08-0.172001:1114.661.9112.75
2001:1216.591.621.9-0.392001:1214.971.5113.46
PTB
r-riil Ina
r-riil AS
PTB
Periode Penelitian
Persentase
Gambar 4.2. Perbedaan Suku Bunga Indonesia-Amerika
THR
OBSP-InaP-ASTHR
1997:91171021.13
1997:101201021.17
1997:111221031.19
1997:121311021.28
1998:11541011.54
1998:21681001.68
1998:31771001.77
1998:41771001.77
1998:51911001.91
1998:62101002.10
1998:72251002.25
1998:82321002.33
1998:9240992.42
1998:10235992.37
1998:11233992.35
1998:12233982.36
1999:1244992.48
1999:2249982.54
1999:3250982.54
1999:4249992.52
1999:52451002.46
1999:62421002.41
1999:72351012.34
1999:82401022.36
1999:92451032.39
1999:102411022.40
1999:112371032.30
1999:122421022.36
2000:12461032.39
2000:22491042.39
2000:32481052.36
2000:42521052.40
2000:52571052.44
2000:62611072.43
2000:72261072.11
2000:82621072.46
2000:92491082.31
2000:102521092.33
2000:112721082.51
2000:122751092.52
2001:12781122.48
2001:22831102.57
2001:32881092.65
2001:42981092.72
2001:53051102.78
2001:63111092.86
2001:73111072.91
2001:83011072.81
2001:93041072.84
2001:103081042.95
2001:113141043.02
2001:123141033.06
THR
P-Ina
P-AS
Periode Penelitian
Indeks Harga
Gambar 4.3. Tingkat Harga di Indonesia dan Amerika
RGDP
THR
Periode
Perbandingan
Gambar 4.4. Harga Relatif Indonesia-Amerika
MS
OBSRGDP
1997:936,430.68
1997:1036,561.43
1997:1136,692.17
1997:1236,822.91
1998:133,560.10
1998:233,168.75
1998:332,777.41
1998:432,386.07
1998:531,994.73
1998:631,603.38
1998:731,212.04
1998:830,820.70
1998:930,429.35
1998:1030,038.01
1998:1129,646.67
1998:1229,255.33
1999:131,460.02
1999:231,468.07
1999:331,476.12
1999:431,484.16
1999:531,492.21
1999:631,500.26
1999:731,508.31
1999:831,516.35
1999:931,524.40
1999:1031,532.45
1999:1131,540.50
1999:1231,548.55
2000:132,401.78
2000:232,539.85
2000:332,677.93
2000:432,816.00
2000:532,954.08
2000:633,092.15
2000:733,230.23
2000:833,368.31
2000:933,506.38
2000:1033,644.46
2000:1133,782.53
2000:1233,920.61
2001:133,756.93
2001:233,848.58
2001:333,940.23
2001:434,031.88
2001:534,123.53
2001:634,215.18
2001:734,306.83
2001:834,398.49
2001:934,490.14
2001:1034,581.79
2001:1134,673.44
2001:1234,765.09
MS
RGDP
Periode Penelitian
Dalam Milyar Rupiah
Gambar 4.5. Perkembangan GDP Riil
NFA
OBSMS
1997:966,258.00
1997:1067,351.00
1997:1169,856.00
1997:1278,343.00
1998:192,800.00
1998:292,509.00
1998:398,270.00
1998:495,368.00
1998:5103,941.00
1998:6109,480.00
1998:7105,822.00
1998:8104,583.00
1998:9102,563.00
1998:1099,603.00
1998:11100,971.00
1998:12101,197.00
1999:1101,953.00
1999:2103,458.00
1999:3105,705.00
1999:4100,708.00
1999:5103,301.00
1999:6105,964.00
1999:7106,075.00
1999:8109,564.00
1999:9118,124.00
1999:10116,315.00
1999:11117,292.00
1999:12124,633.00
2000:1122,417.00
2000:2122,160.00
2000:3124,663.00
2000:4127,367.00
2000:5130,225.00
2000:6133,832.00
2000:7135,739.00
2000:8136,530.00
2000:9135,430.00
2000:10138,886.00
2000:11141,204.00
2000:12162,186.00
2001:1145,345.00
2001:2149,879.00
2001:3148,375.00
2001:4154,297.00
2001:5155,791.00
2001:6160,142.00
2001:7162,154.00
2001:8166,851.00
2001:9164,237.00
2001:10169,963.00
2001:11171,383.00
2001:12177,731.00
NFA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
MS
Periode
Milyar Rupiah
Gambar 4.6. Penawaran Uang M1 (Money Supply)
IAL
OBSNFA
1997:967,631.003963.4117.0638630168
1997:1066,902.00
1997:1161,043.00
1997:1267,985.00
1998:1146,691.00
1998:2108,383.00
1998:3112,930.00
1998:4127,655.00
1998:5174,014.00
1998:6246,557.00
1998:7226,420.00
1998:8204,788.00
1998:9200,088.00
1998:10133,661.00
1998:11126,004.00
1998:12141,677.00
1999:1181,235.00
1999:2172,240.00
1999:3186,989.00
1999:4151,590.00
1999:5154,006.00
1999:6112,077.00
1999:7121,101.00
1999:8137,058.00
1999:9166,188.00
1999:10121,070.00
1999:11140,851.00
1999:12129,096.00
2000:1138,940.00
2000:2134,260.00
2000:3137,943.00
2000:4145,903.00
2000:5167,931.00
2000:6181,904.00
2000:7188,969.00
2000:8165,519.00
2000:9177,658.00
2000:10206,401.00
2000:11210,824.00
2000:12210,733.00
2001:1207,581.00
2001:2226,194.00
2001:3248,254.002.4595821443
2001:4296,722.00166,344.00
2001:5283,884.00
2001:6293,223.00
2001:7232,702.00
2001:8180,293.00
2001:9203,671.00
2001:10229,202.00
2001:11231,748.00
2001:12233,975.0010328.5822.6531550794
IAL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NFA
Periode
Milyar Rupiah
Gambar 4.7. Perkembangan Cadangan Devisa (NFA)
IATL
OBSIAL
1997:9363.41
1997:10352.88
1997:11342.34
1997:12331.81
1998:1162.57
1998:2127.61
1998:392.66
1998:457.71
1998:522.76
1998:6-12.19
1998:7-47.14
1998:8-82.09
1998:9-117.05
1998:10-152.00
1998:11-186.95
1998:12-221.90
1999:1-137.50
1999:2-154.09
1999:3-170.68
1999:4-187.27
1999:5-203.86
1999:6-220.45
1999:7-237.05
1999:8-253.64
1999:9-270.23
1999:10-286.82
1999:11-303.41
1999:12-320.00
2000:1-310.18
2000:2-322.71
2000:3-335.24
2000:4-347.76
2000:5-360.29
2000:6-372.82
2000:7-385.35
2000:8-397.88
2000:9-410.40
2000:10-422.93
2000:11-435.46
2000:12-447.99
2001:1-439.03
2001:2-448.25
2001:3-457.47
2001:4-466.69
2001:5-475.92
2001:6-485.14
2001:7-494.36
2001:8-503.58
2001:9-512.81
2001:10-522.03
2001:11-531.25
2001:12-540.47
IATL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
IAL
Periode
Juta Dollar Amerika
Gambar 4.8. Perkembangan Investasi Asing Langsung (FDI)
PULN
OBSIATL
1997:9-597.29
1997:10-669.04
1997:11-740.79
1997:12-812.54
1998:1-800.47
1998:2-859.32
1998:3-918.18
1998:4-977.03
1998:5-1,035.89
1998:6-1,094.74
1998:7-1,153.59
1998:8-1,212.45
1998:9-1,271.30
1998:10-1,330.16
1998:11-1,389.01
1998:12-1,447.86
1999:1-703.83
1999:2-639.17
1999:3-574.50
1999:4-509.83
1999:5-445.17
1999:6-380.50
1999:7-315.83
1999:8-251.17
1999:9-186.50
1999:10-121.83
1999:11-57.17
1999:127.50
2000:1-405.27
2000:2-414.05
2000:3-422.84
2000:4-431.62
2000:5-440.41
2000:6-449.19
2000:7-457.98
2000:8-466.76
2000:9-475.55
2000:10-484.33
2000:11-493.11
2000:12-501.90
2001:1-315.14
2001:2-293.84
2001:3-272.55
2001:4-251.25
2001:5-229.95
2001:6-208.65
2001:7-187.35
2001:8-166.05
2001:9-144.75
2001:10-123.45
2001:11-102.16
2001:12-80.86
PULN
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
IATL
Periode
Juta Dollar Amerika
Gambar 4.9. Perkembangan Investasi Asing Tidak Langsung
PUS
OBSPULNULN
1997:91,242.00135452.00
1997:102,190.00137642.00
1997:111,298.00138940.00
1997:12-2,852.00136088.00
1998:13,594.00139682.00
1998:2710.00140392.00
1998:31,630.00142022.00
1998:4-3,474.00138548.00
1998:51,104.00139652.00
1998:62,723.00142375.00
1998:73,005.00145380.00
1998:81,140.00146520.00
1998:9-4,555.00141,965.00
1998:105,213.00147,178.00
1998:11-492.00146,686.00
1998:124,200.00150,886.00
1999:1846.00151,732.00
1999:2747.00152,479.00
1999:3-2,540.00149,939.00
1999:4-3,255.00146,684.00
1999:5-882.00145,802.00
1999:6-853.00144,949.00
1999:7-2,066.00142,883.00
1999:8-331.00142,552.00
1999:93,390.00145,942.00
1999:10-1,032.00144,910.00
1999:11-113.00144,797.00
1999:123,300.00148,097.00
2000:1-3,204.00144,893.00
2000:299.00144,992.00
2000:3-710.00144,282.00
2000:4-644.00143,638.00
2000:5-1,992.00141,646.00
2000:62,557.00144,203.00
2000:7-1,106.00143,097.00
2000:8-1,277.00141,820.00
2000:9-1,016.00140,804.00
2000:10-807.00139,997.00
2000:11628.00140,625.00
2000:121,068.00141,693.00
2001:1-1,496.00140,197.00
2001:2221.00140,418.00
2001:3-2,103.00138,315.00
2001:41,421.00139,736.00
2001:5262.00139,998.00
2001:6-1,096.00138,902.00
2001:7-1,182.00137,720.00
2001:8-119.00137,601.00
2001:9178.00137,779.00
2001:10-1,714.00136,065.00
2001:11-1,102.00134,963.00
2001:124,180.00139,143.00
PUS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PULN
Periode
Juta Dollar Amerika
Gambar 4.9. Pertumbuhan Utang Luar Negeri
X
OBSPUS
1997:91,474.93
1997:101,511.44
1997:111,547.95
1997:121,584.45
1998:11,526.98
1998:21,549.03
1998:31,571.08
1998:41,593.13
1998:51,615.18
1998:61,637.23
1998:71,659.27
1998:81,681.32
1998:91,703.37
1998:101,725.42
1998:111,747.47
1998:121,769.52
1999:12,151.59
1999:22,229.03
1999:32,306.47
1999:42,383.91
1999:52,461.34
1999:62,538.78
1999:72,616.22
1999:82,693.66
1999:92,771.09
1999:102,848.53
1999:112,925.97
1999:123,003.41
2000:12,258.28
2000:21,246.00
2000:32,515.00
2000:41,600.00
2000:51,786.00
2000:63,679.00
2000:71,380.00
2000:81,820.00
2000:91,754.00
2000:101,288.00
2000:111,767.17
2000:121,718.06
2001:11,432.00
2001:21,338.00
2001:31,987.00
2001:41,967.00
2001:52,061.00
2001:62,418.00
2001:71,472.00
2001:82,231.00
2001:92,047.00
2001:101,113.00
2001:11562.00
2001:121,778.00
X
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PUS
Periode
Juta Dollar Amerika
Gambar 4.10. Pembayaran Utang Swasta
M
OBSX-MigasX-Non MigasTotal Ekspor
1997:9916.903790.204707.10
1997:10993.503564.404557.90
1997:11947.703731.304679.00
1997:121003.103701.204704.30
1998:1804.503344.504149.00
1998:2754.203058.003812.20
1998:3715.103839.604554.70
1998:4514.003138.103652.10
1998:5647.803272.003919.80
1998:6619.503861.904481.40
1998:7642.603936.304578.90
1998:8609.603482.204091.80
1998:9623.803385.604009.40
1998:10658.603168.003826.60
1998:11614.803250.603865.40
1998:12667.503238.803906.30
1999:1644.302373.603017.90
1999:2576.802616.303193.10
1999:3645.903307.103953.00
1999:4648.003238.103886.10
1999:5683.103147.303830.40
1999:6556.803038.203595.00
1999:7866.003367.804233.80
1999:81014.103609.704623.80
1999:9959.203577.904537.10
1999:101059.103579.104638.20
1999:11988.603468.504457.10
1999:121148.003339.204487.20
2000:11144.603249.404394.00
2000:21100.403693.404793.80
2000:31103.903847.504951.40
2000:4987.604024.405012.00
2000:51004.603853.304857.90
2000:61185.804160.405346.20
2000:71157.504233.505391.00
2000:81310.804265.205576.00
2000:91339.504433.405772.90
2000:101399.104164.205563.30
2000:111320.303919.005239.30
2000:121312.403913.605226.00
2001:11215.003675.304890.30
2001:21106.103632.504738.60
2001:31360.803877.205238.00
2001:41074.303711.404785.70
2001:51150.103700.504850.60
2001:61088.303758.404846.70
2001:71083.503782.204865.70
2001:81010.504113.305123.80
2001:9967.603382.504350.10
2001:10895.103624.404519.50
2001:11818.803075.903894.70
2001:12967.603382.504350.10
M
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
X-Migas
X-Non Migas
Total Ekspor
Periode
Juta Dollar Amerika
4.11. Perkembangan Ekspor (X)
Sheet1
OBSM-MigasM-Non MigasTotal Impor
1997:9322.803129.703,452.50
1997:10338.703121.003,459.70
1997:11245.503008.603,254.10
1997:12390.402787.803,178.20
1998:1430.202152.902,583.10
1998:2359.801897.602,257.40
1998:3198.502166.602,365.10
1998:4121.501801.401,922.90
1998:5206.101817.702,023.80
1998:6133.102017.302,150.40
1998:7205.402239.302,444.70
1998:8208.001974.402,182.40
1998:9221.602008.902,230.50
1998:10193.302223.202,416.50
1998:11137.202221.002,358.20
1998:12239.002162.902,401.90
1999:1236.401535.801,772.20
1999:2286.401522.301,808.70
1999:3175.501800.901,976.40
1999:4222.001899.902,121.90
1999:5196.001763.101,959.10
1999:6221.301675.001,896.30
1999:7365.501641.502,007.00
1999:8388.701655.202,043.90
1999:9505.601649.302,154.90
1999:10379.701668.302,048.00
1999:11321.701738.002,059.70
1999:12382.201772.802,155.00
2000:1427.301742.202,169.50
2000:2362.901757.502,120.40
2000:3477.601787.502,265.10
2000:4463.701875.202,338.90
2000:5445.401938.202,383.60
2000:6474.001999.502,473.50
2000:7499.702187.502,687.20
2000:8673.002563.503,236.50
2000:9684.602761.603,446.20
2000:10604.802883.503,488.30
2000:11609.402964.503,573.90
2000:12297.103034.503,331.60
2001:1234.302706.802,941.10
2001:2463.002714.403,177.40
2001:3487.002607.403,094.40
2001:4439.902476.102,916.00
2001:5607.802305.102,912.90
2001:6518.102185.102,703.20
2001:7530.101923.202,453.30
2001:8524.101825.002,349.10
2001:9477.701655.302,133.00
2001:10443.701635.302,079.00
2001:11365.001752.402,117.40
2001:12477.701655.302,133.00
Sheet1
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
M-Migas
M-Non Migas
Total Impor
Periode
Juta Dollar Amerika
Gambar 4.12. Perkembangan Impor (M)
CRI
OBSPRIERIFRICRI
1997:947.837.0023.0039.00
1997:104837.0022.5038.88
1997:114737.0033.0041.00
1997:1248.937.0023.0039.00
1998:15333.5024.5041.00
1998:25333.5030.0042.38
1998:35236.0025.5041.38
1998:45136.5030.0042.13
1998:55236.5025.0041.38
1998:65537.0026.0043.25
1998:75336.5030.5043.25
1998:85537.0030.0044.25
1998:95238.0025.0041.75
1998:105339.0029.5043.63
1998:115339.0030.0043.75
1998:125439.0025.5043.13
1999:15842.0023.0045.25
1999:25640.5024.0044.13
1999:35240.5024.5042.25
1999:45340.5028.5043.75
1999:55140.5029.0042.88
1999:65140.5028.5042.75
1999:75240.5024.0042.13
1999:85240.5025.0042.38
1999:95240.5024.5042.25
1999:105240.5029.5043.50
1999:115340.5024.5042.75
1999:125340.5029.0043.88
2000:15643.0023.5044.63
2000:26140.5026.5047.25
2000:36240.5023.5047.00
2000:46240.5025.5047.50
2000:56440.5025.0048.38
2000:66440.5021.0047.38
2000:76140.5026.0047.13
2000:86140.5030.0048.13
2000:96240.5025.0047.38
2000:106340.5026.0048.13
2000:116340.5025.5048.00
2000:126340.5030.0049.13
2001:15940.0025.5045.88
2001:26240.5025.5047.50
2001:36440.5024.5048.25
2001:46440.5024.0048.13
2001:56440.5029.0049.38
2001:66640.5023.0048.88
2001:76640.5030.5050.75
2001:86640.5029.5050.50
2001:96640.5024.0049.13
2001:106640.5035.0051.88
2001:116640.5033.5051.50
2001:126640.5030.5050.75
CRI
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PRI
Periode
Indeks
Gambar 4.13. Indeks Resiko Politik Negara Indonesia
ERF
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ERI
Periode
Indeks
Gambar 4.14. Indeks Resiko Ekonomi Indonesia
Interpolasi data
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
FRI
Periode
Indeks
Gambar 4.15. Indeks Resiko Keuangan Indonesia
CRi-data
OBSPRIERIFRICRI
1997:94837.0023.0039.00
1997:104837.0022.5038.88
1997:114737.0033.0041.00
1997:124837.0023.0039.00
1998:15333.5024.5041.00
1998:25333.5030.0042.38
1998:35236.0025.5041.38
1998:45136.5030.0042.13
1998:55236.5025.0041.38
1998:65537.0026.0043.25
1998:75336.5030.5043.25
1998:85537.0030.0044.25
1998:95238.0025.0041.75
1998:105339.0029.5043.63
1998:115339.0030.0043.75
1998:125439.0025.5043.13
1999:15842.0023.0045.25
1999:25640.5024.0044.13
1999:35240.5024.5042.25
1999:45340.5028.5043.75
1999:55140.5029.0042.88
1999:65140.5028.5042.75
1999:75240.5024.0042.13
1999:85240.5025.0042.38
1999:95240.5024.5042.25
1999:105240.5029.5043.50
1999:115340.5024.5042.75
1999:125340.5029.0043.88
2000:15643.0023.5044.63
2000:26140.5026.5047.25
2000:36240.5023.5047.00
2000:46240.5025.5047.50
2000:56440.5025.0048.38
2000:66440.5021.0047.38
2000:76140.5026.0047.13
2000:86140.5030.0048.13
2000:96240.5025.0047.38
2000:106340.5026.0048.13
2000:116340.5025.5048.00
2000:126340.5030.0049.13
2001:15940.0025.5045.88
2001:26240.5025.5047.50
2001:36440.5024.5048.25
2001:46440.5024.0048.13
2001:56440.5029.0049.38
2001:66640.5023.0048.88
2001:76640.5030.5050.75
2001:86640.5029.5050.50
2001:96640.5024.0049.13
2001:106640.5035.0051.88
2001:116640.5033.5051.50
2001:126640.5030.5050.75
CRi-data
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
PRI
ERI
FRI
CRI
Periode
Indeks Resiko
Gambar 4.13. Perkembangan Country Risk Index (CRI)
OBSR-sim-InaR-Sim-USEROBSERFSuku Bunga deposito 1 bulan
1997:926.585.563275.001997:93963.41
1997:1023.885.553670.001997:104342.71
1997:1121.505.613648.001997:114227.67
1997:1219.745.884650.001997:125294.49
1998:120.385.5310375.001998:111915.69
1998:222.795.538750.001998:210260.25
1998:342.925.588325.001998:311433.56
1998:449.165.567970.001998:411444.92
1998:558.095.5610525.001998:516053.78
1998:652.835.5714900.001998:621941.74
1998:750.345.5713000.001998:718820.10
1998:854.875.5611075.001998:816536.08
1998:960.975.4910700.001998:916636.36
1998:1060.855.247550.001998:1011748.56
1998:1154.125.167300.001998:1110874.08
1998:1241.245.478025.001998:1210895.54
1999:137.104.898950.001999:111832.80
1999:237.324.868730.001999:211563.76
1999:336.974.888685.001999:311472.02
1999:433.464.848260.001999:410624.01
1999:529.724.848105.001999:510121.52
1999:624.145.016726.001999:68012.68
1999:718.155.136875.001999:77770.13
1999:813.225.257565.001999:88167.93
1999:912.445.348386.001999:98981.41
1999:1012.675.366900.001999:107404.39
1999:1112.425.507425.001999:117938.81
1999:1212.526.347100.001999:127538.78
2000:112.395.747425.002000:17918.76
2000:211.815.837505.002000:27953.80
2000:311.216.017590.002000:37984.68
2000:410.836.107945.002000:48320.80
2000:510.736.498620.002000:58985.49
2000:610.686.608735.002000:69091.39
2000:710.756.579003.002000:79379.33
2000:811.496.558290.002000:88699.53
2000:911.656.568780.002000:99226.90
2000:1011.736.559395.002000:109881.66
2000:1111.936.579530.002000:1110040.81
2000:1212.056.629595.002000:1210116.01
2001:112.975.839450.002001:110124.7310328.5833333333
2001:213.905.479835.002001:210664.09
2001:314.165.0910400.002001:311343.28
2001:413.854.7711675.002001:412735.09
2001:514.174.1111058.002001:512170.43
2001:614.353.8611440.002001:612640.06
2001:714.453.769525.002001:710543.22
2001:815.163.598865.002001:89890.68
2001:916.012.9910435.002001:911793.64
2001:1016.262.4310430.002001:1011872.47
2001:1116.372.0810430.002001:1111920.45
2001:1216.591.9010400.002001:1211927.76
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ERF
Periode
Rupiah per dollar
Gambar 4.14. Ekspektasi Nilai Tukar Rupiah (ERF)
TahunGDP
TahunIALIATL1996203442,396.008490.8180300501
1996619453171997238784,650.005135.0537634409
19974677-50151998256848,025.003200.4984423676
1998-356-134901999367307,100.005173.2394366197
1999-2745-41782000291719,595.003040.2292860865
2000-4549-544320012881410,400.002770.5769230769
2001-5877-2376378051.4
397934.3
Yt-2376411132.1Yt23858
Yt-1-5443Yt-1309301,474.932051.1875
1480972,396.00354840.411,511.442075.7291666667
0.08333333331416932,396.00339496.431,547.952100.2708333333
1391432,396.00333386.6281,584.452124.8125
1-315.1412,258.281,526.982071.3541666667
2-293.8480.0543191.631944444453958.333333333322,209.171,549.032083.8958333333
3-272.5583.1945438.618055555554618.532,160.061,571.082096.4375
4-251.2586.2647685.604166666755278.666666666742,110.941,593.132108.9791666667
5-229.9589.2649932.590277777855938.833333333352,061.831,615.182121.5208333333
6-208.6560.7640428.930555555666533.392361111162,012.721,637.232134.0625
7-187.3559.4740868.12568721.927083333371,963.611,659.272146.6041666667
8-166.0558.2541307.319444444470910.461805555581,914.501,681.322159.1458333333
9-144.7557.1141746.513888888973098.996527777891,865.391,703.372171.6875
10-123.4556.0342185.708333333375287.53125101,816.281,725.422184.2291666667
11-102.1655.0242624.902777777877476.0659722222111,767.171,747.472196.7708333333
12-80.8654.0643064.097222222279664.6006944444121,718.061,769.522209.3125
-2,376.0053.1543503.291666666781853.135416666723,858.002,151.592638.9375
52.2943942.486111111184041.67013888892,229.032715.6458333333
51.4744381.680555555586230.20486111112,306.472792.3541666667
50.6944820.87588418.73958333332,383.912869.0625
49.9545260.069444444490607.27430555562,461.342945.7708333333
49.4341786.038194444484540.67361111112,538.783022.4791666667
48.7141623.197916666785459.18752,616.223099.1875
48.0041460.357638888986377.70138888892,693.663175.8958333333
47.3141297.517361111187296.21527777782,771.093252.6041666667
46.6341134.677083333388214.72916666672,848.533329.3125
45.9740971.836805555689133.24305555562,925.973406.0208333333
45.3240808.996527777890051.75694444443,003.413482.7291666667
44.6840646.1562590970.27083333332,258.282719.6284722222
44.0640483.315972222291888.78472222222,209.171939
43.4540320.475694444492807.29861111112,160.063262
42.8540157.635416666793725.81252,110.941840
42.2639994.795138888994644.32638888892,061.832215
89.1228877.423958333332401.77534722222,012.723268
88.4228770.868541666732539.85104166671,963.611810
87.7228664.31312532677.92673611111,914.502269
87.0228557.757708333332816.00243055561,865.392171
86.3428451.202291666732954.0781251,816.281721
85.6528344.64687533092.15381944441,767.172194.6979166667
84.9828238.091458333333230.22951388891,718.062142.2048611111
84.3128131.536041666733368.30520833331886
83.6428024.98062533506.38090277781619
82.9827918.425208333333644.45659722222370
82.3327811.869791666733782.53229166672284
81.6827705.31437533920.60798611112828
82.9928015.579583333333,756.932809
82.6427973.150416666733,848.582016
82.2927930.7212533,940.233070
81.9527888.292083333334,031.881804
81.6027845.862916666734,123.531362
81.2627803.4337534,215.181471
80.9227761.004583333334,306.832479
80.5827718.575416666734,398.49
80.2427676.1462534,490.14
79.9127633.717083333334,581.79
79.5727591.287916666734,673.44
79.2427548.8587534,765.09
Indeks Resiko Ekonomi (Economic Risk Index) Negara IndonesiaIndeks Resiko Keuangan (Financial Risk Index) Negara IndonesiaIndeks Resiko Politik (Political Risk Index) Negara IndonesiaIndeks Resiko Politik (Political Risk Index) Negara IndonesiaIndeks Resiko Negara Indonesia (Country Risk Indeks)
Economi Risk Rating (ERR)Financial Risk Rating (FRR)OBS:Government Stability (A)Socioeconomic condition (B)Investment Profile (C)Internal Conflict (D)External Conflict (E)OBS:Other Categories (F)Overall - Political Risk Rating (PRR)OBS:ComponentCRI
OBSGDP/AVRRGDP GIRBB/GDPCA/GDPTotalOBSFD/GDPFDS/XCA/XOR (M)ERSTotalGULSPSSubUNCCPovSubCVPRPDSubCWTRRCDSubWCBCFPSubCMiPRiPL&OETDABQSubSub ASub BSub CSub DSub ESub FTotalPRRERRFRR
1997:90.505.5010.0010.0011.0037.001997:93.506.5011.501.500.0023.001997:920.001.003.001.001.001.003.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001997:91.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.003.003.004.009.0012.0017.0048.001997:948.0037.0023.0039.00
1997:100.505.5010.0010.0011.0037.001997:103.506.0011.501.500.0022.501997:1020.001.003.001.001.001.003.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001997:101.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.003.003.004.009.0012.0017.0048.001997:1048.0037.0022.5038.88
1997:110.505.5010.0010.0011.0037.001997:113.506.0012.001.5010.0033.001997:1120.001.003.001.001.001.003.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001997:111.001.005.001.005.001.002.0016.003.003.004.009.0012.0016.0047.001997:1147.0037.0033.0041.00
1997:120.505.5010.0010.0011.0037.001997:123.506.0012.001.500.0023.001997:1220.001.003.001.001.001.003.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001997:121.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.003.003.004.009.0012.0017.0048.001997:1248.0037.0023.0039.00
1998:10.003.508.0010.0012.0033.501998:14.506.0012.501.500.0024.501998:133.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001998:11.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.009.0012.0018.0053.001998:153.0033.5024.5041.00
1998:20.004.006.5010.0013.0033.501998:25.005.5012.502.005.0030.001998:233.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001998:21.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.009.0012.0018.0053.001998:253.0033.5030.0042.38
1998:30.004.008.5010.0013.5036.001998:35.006.0012.502.000.0025.501998:333.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.001.005.0011.001998:31.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.009.0011.0018.0052.001998:352.0036.0025.5041.38
1998:40.004.008.5010.0014.0036.501998:45.005.0013.002.005.0030.001998:433.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.001.005.0011.001998:41.001.005.002.005.001.002.0017.008.002.004.009.0011.0017.0051.001998:451.0036.5030.0042.13
1998:50.004.008.5010.0014.0036.501998:55.005.0013.002.000.0025.001998:533.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.001.005.0011.001998:51.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.009.0011.0018.0052.001998:552.0036.5025.0041.38
1998:60.004.008.5010.0014.5037.001998:65.006.0013.002.000.0026.001998:633.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.005.0012.005.001.005.0011.001998:61.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.0012.0011.0018.0055.001998:655.0037.0026.0043.25
1998:70.004.007.5010.0015.0036.501998:75.006.0013.001.505.0030.501998:733.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.005.0012.005.001.005.0011.001998:71.001.005.001.005.001.002.0016.008.002.004.0012.0011.0016.0053.001998:753.0036.5030.5043.25
1998:80.004.008.0010.0015.0037.001998:85.005.0013.501.505.0030.001998:833.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.003.004.005.0012.005.001.005.0011.001998:81.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.008.002.005.0012.0011.0017.0055.001998:855.0037.0030.0044.25
1998:90.004.009.0010.0015.0038.001998:95.005.0013.501.500.0025.001998:933.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001998:91.001.005.001.005.001.002.0016.008.002.005.0010.0011.0016.0052.001998:952.0038.0025.0041.75
1998:100.004.0010.0010.0015.0039.001998:105.004.5013.501.505.0029.501998:1033.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001998:101.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.008.002.005.0010.0011.0017.0053.001998:1053.0039.0029.5043.63
1998:110.004.0010.0010.0015.0039.001998:115.004.5014.001.505.0030.001998:1133.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001998:111.001.005.002.005.001.002.0017.008.002.005.0010.0011.0017.0053.001998:1153.0039.0030.0043.75
1998:120.004.0010.0010.0015.0039.001998:125.504.5014.001.500.0025.501998:1233.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001998:121.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.005.0010.0011.0018.0054.001998:1254.0039.0025.5043.13
1999:10.007.509.5010.0015.0042.001999:15.501.5013.502.500.0023.001999:133.002.008.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001999:11.001.005.002.005.005.002.0021.008.003.005.0010.0011.0021.0058.001999:158.0042.0023.0045.25
1999:20.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:25.502.0013.502.500.5024.001999:223.002.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.003.005.009.005.001.005.0011.001999:21.001.005.002.005.005.002.0021.007.003.005.009.0011.0021.0056.001999:256.0040.5024.0044.13
1999:30.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:35.503.0013.502.500.0024.501999:313.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.003.005.009.005.001.005.0011.001999:31.001.002.002.005.005.002.0018.006.003.005.009.0011.0018.0052.001999:352.0040.5024.5042.25
1999:40.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:45.502.5013.502.005.0028.501999:413.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.003.005.009.005.001.005.0011.001999:42.001.002.002.005.005.002.0019.006.003.005.009.0011.0019.0053.001999:453.0040.5028.5043.75
1999:50.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:55.502.5013.502.505.0029.001999:513.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:52.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.005.008.0011.0018.0051.001999:551.0040.5029.0042.88
1999:60.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:65.502.0013.502.505.0028.501999:613.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:62.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.005.008.0011.0018.0051.001999:651.0040.5028.5042.75
1999:70.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:75.502.5013.502.500.0024.001999:713.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:72.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.006.008.0011.0018.0052.001999:752.0040.5024.0042.13
1999:80.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:86.003.0013.502.500.0025.001999:813.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:82.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.006.008.0011.0018.0052.001999:852.0040.5025.0042.38
1999:90.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:96.002.5013.502.500.0024.501999:913.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:92.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.006.008.0011.0018.0052.001999:952.0040.5024.5042.25
1999:100.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:106.002.5013.502.505.0029.501999:1013.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:102.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.006.008.0011.0018.0052.001999:1052.0040.5029.5043.50
1999:110.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:116.002.5013.502.500.0024.501999:1113.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.001.006.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:112.001.002.002.005.005.002.0019.006.003.006.008.0011.0019.0053.001999:1153.0040.5024.5042.75
1999:120.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:126.002.0013.502.505.0029.001999:1213.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.001.006.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:122.001.002.002.005.005.002.0019.006.003.006.008.0011.0019.0053.001999:1253.0040.5029.0043.88
2000:10.008.0010.0010.0015.0043.002000:13.504.0013.502.500.0023.502000:113.001.005.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:12.003.002.005.005.005.002.0024.005.003.006.007.0011.0024.0056.002000:156.0043.0023.5044.63
2000:20.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:23.507.0013.502.500.0026.502000:233.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:22.003.002.005.005.005.005.0027.007.003.006.007.0011.0027.0061.002000:261.0040.5026.5047.25
2000:30.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:33.504.0013.502.500.0023.502000:333.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:32.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.007.003.006.007.0011.0028.0062.002000:362.0040.5023.5047.00
2000:40.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:43.506.5013.502.000.0025.502000:433.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:42.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.007.003.006.007.0011.0028.0062.002000:462.0040.5025.5047.50
2000:50.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:53.506.0013.502.000.0025.002000:523.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.004.006.0010.005.001.005.0011.002000:52.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.006.003.006.0010.0011.0028.0064.002000:564.0040.5025.0048.38
2000:60.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:63.502.0013.502.000.0021.002000:623.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.004.006.0010.005.001.005.0011.002000:62.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.006.003.006.0010.0011.0028.0064.002000:664.0040.5021.0047.38
2000:70.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:73.507.0013.502.000.0026.002000:723.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:72.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.006.003.006.007.0011.0028.0061.002000:761.0040.5026.0047.13
2000:80.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:83.506.5013.501.505.0030.002000:823.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:82.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.006.003.006.007.0011.0028.0061.002000:861.0040.5030.0048.13
2000:90.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:93.506.5013.501.500.0025.002000:923.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:93.003.002.005.006.005.005.0029.006.003.006.007.0011.0029.0062.002000:962.0040.5025.0047.38
2000:100.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:103.507.5013.501.500.0026.002000:1033.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:103.003.002.005.006.005.005.0029.007.003.006.007.0011.0029.0063.002000:1063.0040.5026.0048.13
2000:110.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:113.506.0013.501.501.0025.502000:1133.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:113.003.002.005.006.005.005.0029.007.003.006.007.0011.0029.0063.002000:1163.0040.5025.5048.00
2000:120.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:123.506.5013.501.505.0030.002000:1233.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:123.003.002.005.006.005.005.0029.007.003.006.007.0011.0029.0063.002000:1263.0040.5030.0049.13
2001:10.005.0010.0010.0015.0040.002001:13.506.5013.502.000.0025.502001:133.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.002.005.0012.002001:13.003.002.005.001.005.005.0024.007.003.006.007.0012.0024.0059.002001:159.0040.0025.5045.88
2001:20.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:23.507.0013.501.500.0025.502001:233.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:23.003.002.005.001.005.005.0024.007.003.006.0010.0012.0024.0062.002001:262.0040.5025.5047.50
2001:30.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:33.505.5013.502.000.0024.502001:333.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:33.003.004.005.001.005.005.0026.007.003.006.0010.0012.0026.0064.002001:364.0040.5024.5048.25
2001:40.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:43.505.0013.502.000.0024.002001:433.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:43.003.004.005.001.005.005.0026.007.003.006.0010.0012.0026.0064.002001:464.0040.5024.0048.13
2001:50.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:53.505.0013.502.005.0029.002001:533.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:53.003.004.005.001.005.005.0026.007.003.006.0010.0012.0026.0064.002001:564.0040.5029.0049.38
2001:60.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:63.504.0013.502.000.0023.002001:633.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:63.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:666.0040.5023.0048.88
2001:70.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:73.506.5013.502.005.0030.502001:733.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:73.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:766.0040.5030.5050.75
2001:80.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:83.505.0013.502.505.0029.502001:833.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:83.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:866.0040.5029.5050.50
2001:90.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:93.504.5013.502.500.0024.002001:933.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:93.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:966.0040.5024.0049.13
2001:100.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:104.007.5013.502.507.5035.002001:1033.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:103.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:1066.0040.5035.0051.88
2001:110.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:114.008.5013.502.505.0033.502001:1133.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:113.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:1166.0040.5033.5051.50
2001:120.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:124.005.5013.502.505.0030.502001:1233.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:123.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:1266.0040.5030.5050.75
Sumber : International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) - PRS Group, Inc.Sumber : International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) - PRS Group, Inc.Sumber : International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) - PRS Group, Inc.,Sumber : International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) - PRS Group, Inc.
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1-*DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN
Chart3
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30.5
FRI
Periode
Indeks
Indeks Resiko Keuangan Indonesia
Master
OBSERPTBTHRRGDPMSNFAIALIATLPULNPUSXMCRIErf
1997:93,275.0020.181.1336,430.6866,258.0067,631.00363.41-597.291,242.001,474.934,707.103,452.5039.003,963.41
1997:103,670.0017.181.1736,561.4367,351.0066,902.00352.88-669.042,190.001,511.444,557.903,459.7038.884,342.71
1997:113,648.0015.161.1936,692.1769,856.0061,043.00342.34-740.791,298.001,547.954,679.003,254.1041.004,227.67
1997:124,650.0012.271.2836,822.9178,343.0067,985.00331.81-812.54-2,852.001,584.454,704.303,178.2039.005,294.49
1998:110,375.008.161.5433,560.1092,800.00146,691.00162.57-800.473,594.001,526.984,149.002,583.1041.0011,915.69
1998:28,750.004.681.6833,168.7592,509.00108,383.00127.61-859.32710.001,549.033,812.202,257.4042.3810,260.25
1998:38,325.0032.041.7732,777.4198,270.00112,930.0092.66-918.181,630.001,571.084,554.702,365.1041.3811,433.56
1998:47,970.0039.241.7732,386.0795,368.00127,655.0057.71-977.03-3,474.001,593.133,652.101,922.9042.1311,444.92
1998:510,525.0047.331.9131,994.73103,941.00174,014.0022.76-1,035.891,104.001,615.183,919.802,023.8041.3816,053.78
1998:614,900.0042.752.1031,603.38109,480.00246,557.00-12.19-1,094.742,723.001,637.234,481.402,150.4043.2521,941.74
1998:713,000.0036.332.2531,212.04105,822.00226,420.00-47.14-1,153.593,005.001,659.274,578.902,444.7043.2518,820.10
1998:811,075.0043.132.3330,820.70104,583.00204,788.00-82.09-1,212.451,140.001,681.324,091.802,182.4044.2516,536.08
1998:910,700.0051.852.4230,429.35102,563.00200,088.00-117.05-1,271.30-4,555.001,703.374,009.402,230.5041.7516,636.36
1998:107,550.0055.582.3730,038.0199,603.00133,661.00-152.00-1,330.165,213.001,725.423,826.602,416.5043.6311,748.56
1998:117,300.0048.882.3529,646.67100,971.00126,004.00-186.95-1,389.01-492.001,747.473,865.402,358.2043.7510,874.08
1998:128,025.0034.412.3629,255.33101,197.00141,677.00-221.90-1,447.864,200.001,769.523,906.302,401.9043.1310,895.54
1999:18,950.0029.482.4831,460.02101,953.00181,235.00-137.50-703.83846.002,151.593,017.901,772.2045.2511,832.80
1999:28,730.0031.322.5431,468.07103,458.00172,240.00-154.09-639.17747.002,229.033,193.101,808.7044.1311,563.76
1999:38,685.0032.152.5431,476.12105,705.00186,989.00-170.68-574.50-2,540.002,306.473,953.001,976.4042.2511,472.02
1999:48,260.0028.732.5231,484.16100,708.00151,590.00-187.27-509.83-3,255.002,383.913,886.102,121.9043.7510,624.01
1999:58,105.0024.602.4631,492.21103,301.00154,006.00-203.86-445.17-882.002,461.343,830.401,959.1042.8810,121.52
1999:66,726.0018.792.4131,500.26105,964.00112,077.00-220.45-380.50-853.002,538.783,595.001,896.3042.758,012.68
1999:76,875.0012.272.3431,508.31106,075.00121,101.00-237.05-315.83-2,066.002,616.224,233.802,007.0042.137,770.13
1999:87,565.007.282.3631,516.35109,564.00137,058.00-253.64-251.17-331.002,693.664,623.802,043.9042.388,167.93
1999:98,386.006.752.3931,524.40118,124.00166,188.00-270.23-186.503,390.002,771.094,537.102,154.9042.258,981.41
1999:106,900.007.432.4031,532.45116,315.00121,070.00-286.82-121.83-1,032.002,848.534,638.202,048.0043.507,404.39
1999:117,425.006.732.3031,540.50117,292.00140,851.00-303.41-57.17-113.002,925.974,457.102,059.7042.757,938.81
1999:127,100.004.452.3631,548.55124,633.00129,096.00-320.007.503,300.003,003.414,487.202,155.0043.887,538.78
2000:17,425.005.632.3932,401.78122,417.00138,940.00-310.18-405.27-3,204.002,258.284,394.002,169.5044.637,918.76
2000:27,505.006.502.3932,539.85122,160.00134,260.00-322.71-414.0599.001,246.004,793.802,120.4047.257,953.80
2000:37,590.005.572.3632,677.93124,663.00137,943.00-335.24-422.84-710.002,515.004,951.402,265.1047.007,984.68
2000:47,945.004.232.4032,816.00127,367.00145,903.00-347.76-431.62-644.001,600.005,012.002,338.9047.508,320.80
2000:58,620.003.512.4432,954.08130,225.00167,931.00-360.29-440.41-1,992.001,786.004,857.902,383.6048.388,985.49
2000:68,735.004.112.4333,092.15133,832.00181,904.00-372.82-449.192,557.003,679.005,346.202,473.5047.389,091.39
2000:79,003.003.132.1133,230.23135,739.00188,969.00-385.35-457.98-1,106.001,380.005,391.002,687.2047.139,379.33
2000:88,290.004.432.4633,368.31136,530.00165,519.00-397.88-466.76-1,277.001,820.005,576.003,236.5048.138,699.53
2000:98,780.005.552.3133,506.38135,430.00177,658.00-410.40-475.55-1,016.001,754.005,772.903,446.2047.389,226.90
2000:109,395.004.192.3333,644.46138,886.00206,401.00-422.93-484.33-807.001,288.005,563.303,488.3048.139,881.66
2000:119,530.004.102.5133,782.53141,204.00210,824.00-435.46-493.11628.001,767.175,239.303,573.9048.0010,040.81
2000:129,595.003.542.5233,920.61162,186.00210,733.00-447.99-501.901,068.001,718.065,226.003,331.6049.1310,116.01
2001:19,450.007.442.4833,756.93145,345.00207,581.00-439.03-315.14-1,496.001,432.004,890.302,941.1045.8810,124.73
2001:29,835.007.962.5733,848.58149,879.00226,194.00-448.25-293.84221.001,338.004,738.603,177.4047.5010,664.09
2001:310,400.008.402.6533,940.23148,375.00248,254.00-457.47-272.55-2,103.001,987.005,238.003,094.4048.2511,343.28
2001:411,675.009.022.7234,031.88154,297.00296,722.00-466.69-251.251,421.001,967.004,785.702,916.0048.1312,735.09
2001:511,058.009.382.7834,123.53155,791.00283,884.00-475.92-229.95262.002,061.004,850.602,912.9049.3812,170.43
2001:611,440.008.992.8634,215.18160,142.00293,223.00-485.14-208.65-1,096.002,418.004,846.702,703.2048.8812,640.06
2001:79,525.008.852.9134,306.83162,154.00232,702.00-494.36-187.35-1,182.001,472.004,865.702,453.3050.7510,543.22
2001:88,865.0011.362.8134,398.49166,851.00180,293.00-503.58-166.05-119.002,231.005,123.802,349.1050.509,890.68
2001:910,435.0012.832.8434,490.14164,237.00203,671.00-512.81-144.75178.002,047.004,350.102,133.0049.1311,793.64
2001:1010,430.0013.492.9534,581.79169,963.00229,202.00-522.03-123.45-1,714.001,113.004,519.502,079.0051.8811,872.47
2001:1110,430.0012.753.0234,673.44171,383.00231,748.00-531.25-102.16-1,102.00562.003,894.702,117.4051.5011,920.45
2001:1210,400.0013.463.0634,765.09177,731.00233,975.00-540.47-80.864,180.001,778.004,350.102,133.0050.7511927.76
ER
OBSER
1997:93,275.00
1997:103,670.00
1997:113,648.00
1997:124,650.00
1998:110,375.00
1998:28,750.00
1998:38,325.00
1998:47,970.00
1998:510,525.00
1998:614,900.00
1998:713,000.00
1998:811,075.00
1998:910,700.00
1998:107,550.00
1998:117,300.00
1998:128,025.00
1999:18,950.00
1999:28,730.00
1999:38,685.00
1999:48,260.00
1999:58,105.00
1999:66,726.00
1999:76,875.00
1999:87,565.00
1999:98,386.00
1999:106,900.00
1999:117,425.00
1999:127,100.00
2000:17,425.00
2000:27,505.00
2000:37,590.00
2000:47,945.00
2000:58,620.00
2000:68,735.00
2000:79,003.00
2000:88,290.00
2000:98,780.00
2000:109,395.00
2000:119,530.00
2000:129,595.00
2001:19,450.00
2001:29,835.00
2001:310,400.00
2001:411,675.00
2001:511,058.00
2001:611,440.00
2001:79,525.00
2001:88,865.00
2001:910,435.00
2001:1010,430.00
2001:1110,430.00
2001:1210,400.00
ER
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ER
Periode Penelitian
Rupiah per dollar
Gambar 4.1. Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap US$
PTB
OBSRdep-Inainf-InaRdep-USInf-USOBSr-riil Inar-riil ASPTBData yang digunakan suku Bunga Deposito 1 Bulan
1997:926.581.095.560.251997:925.495.3120.18
1997:1023.881.395.550.251997:1022.495.3017.18
1997:1121.50.795.61-0.061997:1120.715.5515.16
1997:1219.741.725.88-0.121997:1218.025.7612.27
1998:120.386.885.530.191998:113.505.348.16
1998:222.7912.765.530.191998:210.035.344.68
1998:342.925.495.580.191998:337.435.3932.04
1998:449.164.555.560.191998:444.615.3739.24
1998:558.095.385.560.181998:552.715.3847.33
1998:652.834.635.570.121998:648.205.4542.75
1998:750.348.565.570.121998:741.785.4536.33
1998:854.876.305.560.121998:848.575.4443.13
1998:960.973.755.490.121998:957.225.3751.85
1998:1060.85-0.275.240.241998:1060.585.0055.58
1998:1154.120.085.160.001998:1154.045.1648.88
1998:1241.241.425.47-0.061998:1239.825.4134.41
1999:137.12.974.890.241999:134.134.6529.48
1999:237.321.264.860.121999:236.064.7431.32
1999:336.97-0.254.880.301999:336.724.5832.15
1999:433.46-0.614.840.731999:432.854.1128.73
1999:529.72-0.284.840.001999:529.444.8424.60
1999:624.14-0.345.010.001999:623.805.0118.79
1999:718.15-1.055.130.301999:717.104.8312.27
1999:813.22-0.935.250.241999:812.295.017.28
1999:912.44-0.825.340.481999:911.624.866.75
1999:1012.670.065.360.181999:1012.615.187.43
1999:1112.420.255.50.061999:1112.175.446.73
1999:1212.521.736.340.001999:1210.796.344.45
2000:112.391.325.740.302000:111.075.445.63
2000:211.810.075.830.592000:211.745.246.50
2000:311.21-0.456.010.822000:310.765.195.57
2000:410.830.566.10.062000:410.276.044.23
2000:510.730.846.490.122000:59.896.373.51
2000:610.680.506.60.532000:610.186.074.11
2000:710.751.286.570.232000:79.476.343.13
2000:811.490.516.550.002000:810.986.554.43
2000:911.65-0.066.560.522000:911.596.045.55
2000:1011.731.166.550.172000:1010.576.384.19
2000:1111.931.326.570.062000:1110.616.514.10
2000:1212.051.946.62-0.062000:1210.116.563.54
2001:112.970.335.830.632001:112.645.207.44
2001:213.90.875.470.402001:213.035.077.96
2001:314.160.895.090.232001:313.274.868.40
2001:413.850.