Materi After UTS Risiko Negara (Country Risk)

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CARA MENGHITUNG RISIKO NEGARA (COUNTRY RISK) DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

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Risiko Negara (Country Risk)

Transcript of Materi After UTS Risiko Negara (Country Risk)

  • CARA MENGHITUNG RISIKO NEGARA (COUNTRY RISK)DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*PENDAHULUANCountry Risk suatu negara mempengaruhi ekspektasi masyarakat terhadap perekonomian negara yang bersangkutan, yang tercermin dari keputusan-keputusan investasi yang dilakukan di negara tersebut. Makin tinggi resiko suatu negara maka akan semakin beresiko untuk melakukan investasi di negara tersebut.Tingginya resiko negara juga menurunkan kepercayaan investor asing dan pemilik modal untuk memegang mata uang negara yang bersangkutan, yang pada akhirnya menimbulkan tekanan pada mata uang tersebut, sehingga mata uang negara yang bersangkutan mengalami depresiasi nilai tukar. DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*KOMPONEN PENILIAN RISIKO NEGARARisiko Politik Untuk mengukur risiko negara, selanjutnya selanjutnya dibuat suatu indeksasi risiko negara, yang terdiri dari ketiga indeks komponen tersebut.Risiko Keuangan Risiko Ekonomi Menurut International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), dalam menilai country risk suatu negara terdiri dari tiga komponen resiko, yaitu:DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIKResiko politik memperlihatkan tingkat kestabilitas politik yang dicapai suatu negara pada waktu tertentu. Kestabilan politik ini dilihat dari berbagai segi, seperti: stabilitas pemerintah, kondisi sosial ekonomi, profil investasi, konflik internal maupun eksternal, korupsi, peran militer dalam politik, peran agama dalam politik, hukum dan peraturan, ketegangan etnik, pertanggung-jawaban demokrasi, dan kualitas birokrasi. Semakin tinggi kemampuan suatu negara dalam menjaga stabilitas politik, semakin besar poin indeks resiko politiknya, yang berarti semakin rendah resiko politik pada negara yang bersangkutan DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO KEUANGANResiko keuangan memperlihatkan kemampuan suatu negara dalam mengelola keuangan pemerintah, dan kemampuan dalam membayar kewajiban-kewajiban utang perdagangan. Kemampuan suatu negara dalam mengelola keuangannya dapat dilihat dari segi; persentase utang terhadap GDP, persentase pembayaran utang terhadap total ekspor, persentase current account terhadap ekspor, kemampuan berapa bulan cadangan resmi pemerintah dalam meng-cover impor, dan stabilitas nilai tukar.Semakin tinggi kemampuan mereka dalam mengelola keuangan, semakin besar poin indeks resiko finansialnya, yang berarti semakin rendah resiko keuangan negara yang bersangkutan. DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO EKONOMIResiko ekonomi memperlihatkan penilaian terhadap kekuatan dan kelemahan ekonomi suatu negara.Kuat lemahnya ekonomi suatu negara dapat diukur dari indikator; persentase PDB per kapita terhadap GDP seluruh negara, tingkat pertumbuhan PDB riil, tingkat inflasi tahunan, APBN sebagai persentase dari PDB, dan persentase current account terhadap PDB. Apabila kekuatan ekonomi suatu negara lebih besar dari kelemahannya, maka akan menghasilkan resiko ekonomi yang rendah, dan jika kelemahan lebih besar dibandingkan kekuatannya tentu saja akan menghasilkan resiko ekonomi yang tinggi. DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*KOMPONEN DAN SUB KOMPONEN

  • 1-*FORMULA INDEKS RISIKO NEGARA Formula yang digunakan untuk menghitung country risk index (CRI), sebagaimana rumus yang diberikan oleh ICRG, sebagai berikut :Dimana: CRI =Country risk indexPR= Total political risk indikatorER=Total economic risk indikatorFR=Total financial risk indikator CRI = 0,5 * (PR + ER + FR) . (1) DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*FORMULA INDEKS RISIKO NEGARANegara yang memiliki nilai poin tinggi berarti di negara tersebut mengandung tingkat resiko yang rendah Negara yang memiliki nilai poin rendah berarti di negara yang bersangkutan mengandung tingkat resiko yang tinggi Besarnya poin untuk indek resiko negara (CRI) merupakan kombinasi dari ketiga resiko di atas, yang secara keseluruhan berkisar antara 0 sampai dengan 100 poin, dengan kriteria ; DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*TINGKATAN RISIKO NEGARATingkatan Resiko Gabungan 3 Komponen Risiko Sumber: Political Risk Service (PRS) Group and ICRG, 2001 DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    KeteranganBesarnya Poin CRIRisiko Sangat Tinggi 0 49,9Risiko Tinggi50 59,9 Risiko Moderat60 69,9 Risiko Rendah70 79,9 Risiko Sangat Rendah80 100

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*TINGKATAN RISIKO NEGARAKriteria Tingkatan Resiko Politik, Finansial, dan Ekonomi Sumber: Political Risk Service (PRS) Group and ICRG, 2001 DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK Stabilitas Pemerintah - 12 Merupakan penilaian terhadap kemampuan pemerintah untuk melaksanakan program yang dicanangkan dan kemampuan untuk menjaga keberlanjutan pemerintahan.Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin sama dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Kesatuan pemerintah 4 poinKekuatan legistatif 4 poinDukungan populer 4 poin DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont.)Kondisi Sosial Ekonomi - 12 Merupakan penilaian dari tekanan sosial-ekonomi di tempat kerja dalam masyarakat yang dapat membatasi aksi pemerintah atau penyebab ketidakpuasan sosial.Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin samna dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Pengangguran 4 poinKeyakinan Konsumen 4 poinKemiskinan 4 poin DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Profil Investasi - 12 Merupakan penilaian faktor yang mempengaruhi risiko investasi yang tidak tercakup oleh komponen risiko politik, komponen risiko ekonomi dan keuangan.Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin sama dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Keberlangsungan/ Perampasan Kontrak 4 poinPengembalian Keuntungan 4 poinPenundaan Pembayaran 4 poin DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Konflik Internal - 12 merupakan penilaian kekerasan politik di negeri dan berbagai dampak aktual atau potensial yang ditimbulkan bagi pemerintahan. Peringkat tertinggi diberikan kepada negara-negara dimana tidak ada oposisi bersenjata kepada pemerintah dan pemerintah tidak melakukan kekerasan sewenang-wenang, langsung atau tidak langsung, terhadap penduduknya .Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin sama dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Perang Sipil 4 poinTerorisme/ Kekerasan Politik 4 poinGangguan Sipil 4 poin DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Konflik Eksternal - 12 Ukuran konflik eksternal adalah penilaian terhadap risiko pemerintah yang berkuasa dari tindakan asing, mulai dari tekanan eksternal non-kekerasan (tekanan diplomatik, pemotongan bantuan, pembatasan perdagangan, sengketa teritorial, sanksi, dll) maupun tekanan eksternal kekerasan (konflik di perbatasan yang mengarah pada perang).Penilaian resiko yang dihitung adalah jumlah dari tiga subkomponen, masing-masing dengan skor maksimum empat poin dan skor minimal 0 poin. Skor 4 poin sama dengan Risiko Sangat Rendah dan skor dari 0 poin untuk Risiko Sangat Tinggi. Subkomponennya adalah:Perang 4 poinKonflik di Perbatasan 4 poinTekanan Asing 4 poin Konflik eksternal dapat mempengaruhi usaha asing dalam banyak hal, mulai dari pembatasan operasi, sanksi perdagangan dan investasi, distorsi dalam alokasi sumber daya ekonomi, dan mengubah kekerasan dalam struktur masyarakat. DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Korupsi - 6 Merupakan penilaian korupsi dalam sistem politik. Korupsi seperti ini merupakan ancaman bagi investasi asing karena beberapa alasan, diantaranya: mendistorsi ekonomi dan lingkungan keuangan, mengurangi efisiensi pemerintah dan bisnis dengan memungkinkan orang untuk mengasumsikan posisi kekuasaan melalui perlindungan daripada kemampuan, dan, tidak kalah pentingnya adalah memperkenalkan sebuah ketidakstabilan yang melekat dalam proses politik.Jenis korupsi demikian sangat berbahaya dan memiliki potensi risiko lebih besar bagi bisnis asing, dimana dapat menyebabkan ketidakpuasan populer, kontrol tidak realistis dan tidak efisien terhadap perekonomian negara, dan mendorong perkembangan pasar gelap.Bentuk yang paling umum dari korupsi yang berkaitan langsung dengan bisnis adalah korupsi keuangan dalam bentuk tuntutan untuk pembayaran khusus dan suap terhubung dengan izin impor dan ekspor, kontrol devisa, ketetapan pajak, perlindungan polisi, atau pinjaman. Korupsi tersebut menyebabkan sulitnya untuk melakukan usaha secara efektif, dan dalam beberapa kasus memiliki kekuatan penarikan atau menahan investasi.Risiko terbesar dalam korupsi tersebut adalah bahwa pada suatu waktu akan mengemuka, atau beberapa skandal besar tiba-tiba akan terungkapkan dan memicu reaksi yang populer, sehingga dapat menjatuhkan atau menggulingkan pemerintah. Sebuah reorganisasi besar atau restrukturisasi lembaga politik negara, atau, paling buruk, gangguan dalam hukum dan ketertiban, dan membuat negara tak terkendali.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Militer dalam Politik - 6 Militer tidak dipilih oleh siapapun. Oleh karena itu, keterlibatannya dalam politik, bahkan pada tingkat perangkat, adalah penurunan akuntabilitas demokratis .Sebuah pengambilalihan militer atau ancaman pengambilalihan juga dapat merupakan risiko tinggi jika itu merupakan indikasi bahwa pemerintah tidak dapat berfungsi secara efektif dan bahwa negara itu memiliki lingkungan tidak nyaman untuk bisnis asing .Pihak militer mungkin, terlibat dalam pemerintahan karena ancaman internal atau eksternal dalam waktu dekat. Situasi demikian akan berarti distorsi kebijakan pemerintah dalam rangka memenuhi ancaman ini, misalnya dengan meningkatkan anggaran pertahanan dengan mengorbankan alokasi anggaran lainnya .Sebuah rezim militer berskala penuh menimbulkan risiko terbesar. Dalam jangka pendek rezim militer dapat memberikan stabilitas baru dan dengan demikian mengurangi risiko usaha. Namun, dalam jangka panjang risiko hampir pasti akan naik, sebagian karena sistem pemerintahan akan menjadi rusak dan sebagian lagi karena kelanjutan pemerintahan semacam ini cenderung untuk menciptakan oposisi bersenjata .DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Ketegangan Agama - 6 Ketegangan agama mungkin berasal dari dominasi masyarakat dan / atau pemerintahan oleh sekelompok agama tunggal yang berusaha untuk menggantikan hukum perdata dengan hukum agama dan untuk mengecualikan agama-agama lain dari proses politik dan / atau sosial; keinginan sebuah kelompok keagamaan tunggal untuk mendominasi pemerintahan; penindasan dari kebebasan beragama; keinginan dari kelompok agama untuk mengekspresikan identitasnya sendiri, terpisah dari negara secara keseluruhan.Risiko yang terlibat dalam situasi ini berkisar dari orang-orang yang berpengaruh, memaksakan kebijakan tidak tepat melalui perbedaan pendapat sipil dalam perang saudara.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Hukum dan Ketertiban - 6 Hukum dan Ketertiban dinilai secara terpisah, dengan setiap sub-komponen yang terdiri dari nol hingga tiga poin.

    Hukum sub-komponen penilaian terhadap kekuatan dan ketidakberpihakan sistem hukum, Sementara Ketertiban sub-komponen merupakan penilaian ketaatan populer hukum.

    Dengan demikian, suatu negara dapat menikmati rating tinggi - 3 - dalam hal sistem peradilan, tetapi peringkat rendah - 1 - jika menderita tingkat kejahatan sangat tinggi jika hukum secara rutin diabaikan tanpa sanksi yang efektif (misalnya, secara luas aksi mogok ilegal) .DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Ketegangan Etnik - 6 Komponen ini merupakan penilaian tingkat ketegangan di dalam sebuah negara yang timbul ras, kebangsaan, atau divisi bahasa.

    Peringkat yang lebih rendah diberikan kepada negara di mana ketegangan rasial dan kebangsaan yang tinggi karena kelompok-kelompok yang menentang tidak toleran dan tidak mau berkompromi.

    Peringkat yang lebih tinggi diberikan kepada negara-negara dimana ketegangan yang minimal, meskipun perbedaan tersebut mungkin masih ada.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO POLITIK (Cont) Pertanggungjawaban Demokrasi - 6 Ini adalah ukuran tentang bagaimana pemerintah responsif adalah untuk rakyatnya, atas dasar bahwa kurang responsif itu adalah, semakin besar kemungkinan bahwa pemerintah akan jatuh, damai dalam masyarakat demokratis, tapi mungkin kekerasan dalam satu non-demokratis.Pertanggungjawaban Demokrasi - 6 Kekuatan kelembagaan dan kualitas birokrasi merupakan peredam kejut yang cenderung meminimalkan revisi kebijakan ketika pemerintah berubah. Oleh karena itu, poin tinggi diberikan kepada negara-negara dimana birokrasi memiliki kekuatan dan keahlian untuk memerintah tanpa perubahan drastis dalam kebijakan atau gangguan dalam pelayanan pemerintah. Dalam negara berisiko rendah, birokrasi cenderung agak otonom dari tekanan politik dan memiliki mekanisme perekrutan dan pelatihan yang baik terhadap kelembagaannya.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO KEUANGAN Rasio ULN Terhadap GDP - 10Memperkirakan ULN (dalam US$) pada tahun tertentu, dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari GDP (dalam US$) pada tahun yang sama. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut:DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    ULNRatio (%) thp GDPPoin0.0 to 4.910.05.0 to 9.99.510.0 to 14.99.015.0 to 19.98.520 to 24.98.025.0 to 29.97.530.0 to 34.97.035.0 to 39.96.540.0 to 44.96.045.0 to 49.95.550.0 59.95.060.0 to 69.94.570.0 to 79.94.080.0 to 89.93.590.0 to 99.93.0100.0 to 109.92.5110.0 to 119.92.0120.0 to 129.91.5130.0 to 149.91.0150.0 to 199.90.5200.0 plus0.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO KEUANGAN (Cont) Rasio Pembayaran ULN terhadap Ekspor Barang dan Jasa - 10

    Memperkirakan Pembayaran ULN (dalam US$) pada tahun tertentu, dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari Ekspor barang dan Jasa (dalam US$) pada tahun yang sama. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut :DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    Debt Service % XGSRatio (%)Points0.0 to 4.910.05.0 to 8.99.59.0 to 12.99.013.0 to 16.98.517.0 to 20.98.021.0 to 24.97.525.0 to 28.97.029.0 to 32.96.533.0 to 36.96.037.0 to 40.95.541.0 to 44.95.045.0 to 48.94.549.0 to 52.94.053.0 to 56.93.557.0 to 60.93.061.0 to 65.92.566.0 to 70.92.071.0 to 75.91.576.0 to 79.91.080.0 to 84.90.585.0 plus0.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*Rasio CA terhadap Ekspor Barang dan Jasa - 15

    Memperkirakan Rasio CA (dalam US$) pada tahun tertentu, dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari Ekspor barang dan Jasa (dalam US$) pada tahun yang sama. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut.RISIKO KEUANGAN (Cont) DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    Current Account as % XGSRatio (%)Points25.0 plus15.020.0 to 24.914.515.0 to 19.914.010.0 to 14.913.55.0 to 9.913.00.0 to 4.912.5-0.1 to 4.912.0-5.0 to 9.911.5-10.0 to -14.911.0-15.0 to 19.910.5-20.0 to 24.910.0-25.0 to 29.99.5-30.0 to 34.99.0-35.0 to 39.98.5-40.0 to 44.98.0-45.0 - to 49.97.5-50.0 to 54.97.0-55.0 to 59.96.5-60.0 to 64.96.0-65.0 to 69.95.5-70.0 to 74.95.0-75.0 to 79.94.5-80.0 to 84.94.0-85.0 to 89.93.5-90.0 to 94.93.0-95.0 to 99.92.5-100.0 to 104.92.0-105.0 to 109.91.5-110.0 to 114.91.0-115.0 to 119.90.5Below 120.00.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO KEUANGAN (Cont) Cadangan Devisa dalam Bulan Impor - 5

    Merupakan Cadangan Devisa yang dimiliki oleh suatu negara (dalam US$) pada tahun tertentu, dinyatakan dalam banyaknya bulan impor yang dapat di-cover oleh cadangan tersebut. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut.DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    Net Liquidity in MonthsBanyaknya BulanPoin15 plus5.012.0 to 4.94.59.0 to 11.94.06.0 to 8.93.55.0 to 5.93.04.0 to 4.92.53.0 to 3.92.02.0 to 2.91.51.0 to 1.91.00.6 to 0.90.50.0 to 0.5.90.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO KEUANGAN (Cont) Stabilitas Nilai Tukar - 10

    Merupakan apresiasi atau depresiasi nilai tukar suatu negara terhadap US$ dalam periode 12 bulan terakhir sebagai persentase perubahan. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut:DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    Stabilitas Nilai TukarPerubahan ApresiasiPerubahan DepresiasiPoin0.0 to 9.9-0.1 to 4.910.010.0 to 14.9-5.0 to -7.49.514.5 to 19.9-7.5 to -9.99.020.0 to 22.4-10.0 to -12.48.522.5 to 24.9-12.5 to -14.98.024.9 to 27.4-15.0 to -17.47.527.5 to 29.9-17.5 to -19.97.030.0 to 34.9-20.0 to -22.46.535.0 to 39.9-22.5 to -24.96.040.0 to 49.9-25.0 to -29.95.550 plus-30.0 to -34.95.0-35.0 to -39.94.5-40.0 to -44.94.0-45.0 to -49.93.5-50.0 to -54.93.0-55.0 to -59.92.5-60.0 to -69.92.0-70.0 to -79.91.5-80.0 to -89.91.0-90.0 to -99.90.5-100 plus0.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*GDP PER KAPITA - 5GDP Per Kapita dihitung untuk tahun tertentu dan di konversi ke dalam US Dolar, di ekspresikan sebagai persentase dari rata-rata perkiraan total GDP untuk seluruh negara. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut:RISIKO EKONOMI DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    GDP Per Kapita% dari rata-rataPoin250.0 lebih5.0200.0 - 249.94.5150.0 - 199.94.0100.0 - 149.93.575.0 - 99.93.050.0 - 74.92.540.0 - 49.92.030.0 - 39.91.520.0 - 29.91.010.0 - 19.90.5Hingga 9.90.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO EKONOMI (Cont) Pertumbuhan GDP Riil - 10

    Merupakan perubahan tahunan dalam estimasi GDP, yang didasarkan atas harga konstan dari negara tertentu, dinyatakan sebagai persentase peningkatan atau penurunan.. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut :DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    Pertumbuhan GDP RiilChange (%)Poin6.0 lebih10.05.0 to 5.99.54.0 to 4.99.03.0 to 3.98.52.5 to 2.98.02.0 to 2.47.51.5 to 1.97.01.0 to 1.46.50.5 to 0.96.00.0 to 0.45.5-0.1 to -0.45.0-0.5 to -0.94.5-1.0 to -1.44.0-1.5 to -1.93.5-2.0 to -2.43.0-2.5 to -2.92.5-3.0 to -3.42.0-3.5 to -3.91.5-4.0 to -4.91.0-5.0 to -5.90.5-6.0 lebih0.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*Tingkat Inflasi Tahunan - 10

    Perkiraan tingkat inflasi tahunan (atas dasar CPI) dihitung sebagai persentase perubahan. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut.RISIKO EKONOMI (Cont) DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    Rata-rata Inflasi TahunanPerubahan (%)Poin0.0 to 1.910.02.0 to 2.99.53.0 to 3.99.04.0 to 5.98.56.0 to 7.98.08.0 to 9.97.510.0 to 11.97.012.0 to 13.96.514.0 to 15.96.016.0 to 18.95.519.0 to 21.95.022.0 to 24.94.525.0 to 30.94.031.0 to 40.93.541.0 to 50.93.051.0 to 65.92.566.0 to 80.92.081.0 to 95.91.596.0 to 110.91.0111.0 to 129.90.5130.0 plus0.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO EKONOMI (Cont) % APBN Terhadap GDP - 10

    Perkiraan APBN (termasuk Hibah) untuk tahun tertentu dalam mata uang negara tersebut, dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari GDP. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut :DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    APBN% GDPPoin4.0 plus10.03.0 to 3.99.52.0 to 2.99.01.0 to 1.98.50.0 to 0.98.0-0.1 to -0.97.5-1.0 to -1.97.0-2.0 to -2.96.5-3.0 to -3.96.0-4.0 to -4.95.5-5.0 to -5.95.0-6.0 to -6.94.5-7.0 to -7.94.0-8.0 to -8.93.5-9.0 to -9.93.0-10.0 to -11.92.5-12.0 to -14.92.0-15.0 to -19.91.5-20.0 to -24.91.0-25.0 to -29.90.5-30.0 plus0.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*RISIKO EKONOMI (Cont) % CA Terhadap GDP - 15

    Merupakan nilai rasio neraca berjalan (dalam US$) untuk tahun tertentu, terhadap GDP (dalam US$) untuk negara yang bersangkutan. Poin risiko dihitung mengikuti skala berikut:DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    Current Account% GDPPoin10.0 plus15.08.0 to 9.914.56.0 to 7.914.04.0 to 5.913.52.0 to 3.913.01.0 to 1.912.50.0 to 0.912.0-0.1 to -0.911.5-1.0 to -1.911.0-2.0 to -3.910.5-4.0 to -5.910.0-6.0 to -7.99.5-8.0 to -9.99.0-10.0 to -11.98.5-12.0 to -13.98.0-14.0 to -15.97.5-16.0 to -16.97.0-17.0 to -17.96.5-18.0 to -18.96.0-19.0 to -19.95.5-20.0 to -20.95.0-21.0 to -21.94.5-22.0 to -22.94.0-23.0 to -23.93.5-24.0 to -24.93.0-25.0 to -26.92.5-27.0 to -29.92.0-30.0 to -32.51.5-32.5 to -34.91.0-35.0 to -39.90.5-40.0 plus0.0

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

  • 1-*DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    Chart5

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    PRI

    Periode

    Indeks

    ndeks Resiko Politik Negara Indonesia

    Master

    OBSERPTBTHRRGDPMSNFAIALIATLPULNPUSXMCRIErf

    1997:93,275.0020.181.1336,430.6866,258.0067,631.00363.41-597.291,242.001,474.934,707.103,452.5039.003,963.41

    1997:103,670.0017.181.1736,561.4367,351.0066,902.00352.88-669.042,190.001,511.444,557.903,459.7038.884,342.71

    1997:113,648.0015.161.1936,692.1769,856.0061,043.00342.34-740.791,298.001,547.954,679.003,254.1041.004,227.67

    1997:124,650.0012.271.2836,822.9178,343.0067,985.00331.81-812.54-2,852.001,584.454,704.303,178.2039.005,294.49

    1998:110,375.008.161.5433,560.1092,800.00146,691.00162.57-800.473,594.001,526.984,149.002,583.1041.0011,915.69

    1998:28,750.004.681.6833,168.7592,509.00108,383.00127.61-859.32710.001,549.033,812.202,257.4042.3810,260.25

    1998:38,325.0032.041.7732,777.4198,270.00112,930.0092.66-918.181,630.001,571.084,554.702,365.1041.3811,433.56

    1998:47,970.0039.241.7732,386.0795,368.00127,655.0057.71-977.03-3,474.001,593.133,652.101,922.9042.1311,444.92

    1998:510,525.0047.331.9131,994.73103,941.00174,014.0022.76-1,035.891,104.001,615.183,919.802,023.8041.3816,053.78

    1998:614,900.0042.752.1031,603.38109,480.00246,557.00-12.19-1,094.742,723.001,637.234,481.402,150.4043.2521,941.74

    1998:713,000.0036.332.2531,212.04105,822.00226,420.00-47.14-1,153.593,005.001,659.274,578.902,444.7043.2518,820.10

    1998:811,075.0043.132.3330,820.70104,583.00204,788.00-82.09-1,212.451,140.001,681.324,091.802,182.4044.2516,536.08

    1998:910,700.0051.852.4230,429.35102,563.00200,088.00-117.05-1,271.30-4,555.001,703.374,009.402,230.5041.7516,636.36

    1998:107,550.0055.582.3730,038.0199,603.00133,661.00-152.00-1,330.165,213.001,725.423,826.602,416.5043.6311,748.56

    1998:117,300.0048.882.3529,646.67100,971.00126,004.00-186.95-1,389.01-492.001,747.473,865.402,358.2043.7510,874.08

    1998:128,025.0034.412.3629,255.33101,197.00141,677.00-221.90-1,447.864,200.001,769.523,906.302,401.9043.1310,895.54

    1999:18,950.0029.482.4831,460.02101,953.00181,235.00-137.50-703.83846.002,151.593,017.901,772.2045.2511,832.80

    1999:28,730.0031.322.5431,468.07103,458.00172,240.00-154.09-639.17747.002,229.033,193.101,808.7044.1311,563.76

    1999:38,685.0032.152.5431,476.12105,705.00186,989.00-170.68-574.50-2,540.002,306.473,953.001,976.4042.2511,472.02

    1999:48,260.0028.732.5231,484.16100,708.00151,590.00-187.27-509.83-3,255.002,383.913,886.102,121.9043.7510,624.01

    1999:58,105.0024.602.4631,492.21103,301.00154,006.00-203.86-445.17-882.002,461.343,830.401,959.1042.8810,121.52

    1999:66,726.0018.792.4131,500.26105,964.00112,077.00-220.45-380.50-853.002,538.783,595.001,896.3042.758,012.68

    1999:76,875.0012.272.3431,508.31106,075.00121,101.00-237.05-315.83-2,066.002,616.224,233.802,007.0042.137,770.13

    1999:87,565.007.282.3631,516.35109,564.00137,058.00-253.64-251.17-331.002,693.664,623.802,043.9042.388,167.93

    1999:98,386.006.752.3931,524.40118,124.00166,188.00-270.23-186.503,390.002,771.094,537.102,154.9042.258,981.41

    1999:106,900.007.432.4031,532.45116,315.00121,070.00-286.82-121.83-1,032.002,848.534,638.202,048.0043.507,404.39

    1999:117,425.006.732.3031,540.50117,292.00140,851.00-303.41-57.17-113.002,925.974,457.102,059.7042.757,938.81

    1999:127,100.004.452.3631,548.55124,633.00129,096.00-320.007.503,300.003,003.414,487.202,155.0043.887,538.78

    2000:17,425.005.632.3932,401.78122,417.00138,940.00-310.18-405.27-3,204.002,258.284,394.002,169.5044.637,918.76

    2000:27,505.006.502.3932,539.85122,160.00134,260.00-322.71-414.0599.001,246.004,793.802,120.4047.257,953.80

    2000:37,590.005.572.3632,677.93124,663.00137,943.00-335.24-422.84-710.002,515.004,951.402,265.1047.007,984.68

    2000:47,945.004.232.4032,816.00127,367.00145,903.00-347.76-431.62-644.001,600.005,012.002,338.9047.508,320.80

    2000:58,620.003.512.4432,954.08130,225.00167,931.00-360.29-440.41-1,992.001,786.004,857.902,383.6048.388,985.49

    2000:68,735.004.112.4333,092.15133,832.00181,904.00-372.82-449.192,557.003,679.005,346.202,473.5047.389,091.39

    2000:79,003.003.132.1133,230.23135,739.00188,969.00-385.35-457.98-1,106.001,380.005,391.002,687.2047.139,379.33

    2000:88,290.004.432.4633,368.31136,530.00165,519.00-397.88-466.76-1,277.001,820.005,576.003,236.5048.138,699.53

    2000:98,780.005.552.3133,506.38135,430.00177,658.00-410.40-475.55-1,016.001,754.005,772.903,446.2047.389,226.90

    2000:109,395.004.192.3333,644.46138,886.00206,401.00-422.93-484.33-807.001,288.005,563.303,488.3048.139,881.66

    2000:119,530.004.102.5133,782.53141,204.00210,824.00-435.46-493.11628.001,767.175,239.303,573.9048.0010,040.81

    2000:129,595.003.542.5233,920.61162,186.00210,733.00-447.99-501.901,068.001,718.065,226.003,331.6049.1310,116.01

    2001:19,450.007.442.4833,756.93145,345.00207,581.00-439.03-315.14-1,496.001,432.004,890.302,941.1045.8810,124.73

    2001:29,835.007.962.5733,848.58149,879.00226,194.00-448.25-293.84221.001,338.004,738.603,177.4047.5010,664.09

    2001:310,400.008.402.6533,940.23148,375.00248,254.00-457.47-272.55-2,103.001,987.005,238.003,094.4048.2511,343.28

    2001:411,675.009.022.7234,031.88154,297.00296,722.00-466.69-251.251,421.001,967.004,785.702,916.0048.1312,735.09

    2001:511,058.009.382.7834,123.53155,791.00283,884.00-475.92-229.95262.002,061.004,850.602,912.9049.3812,170.43

    2001:611,440.008.992.8634,215.18160,142.00293,223.00-485.14-208.65-1,096.002,418.004,846.702,703.2048.8812,640.06

    2001:79,525.008.852.9134,306.83162,154.00232,702.00-494.36-187.35-1,182.001,472.004,865.702,453.3050.7510,543.22

    2001:88,865.0011.362.8134,398.49166,851.00180,293.00-503.58-166.05-119.002,231.005,123.802,349.1050.509,890.68

    2001:910,435.0012.832.8434,490.14164,237.00203,671.00-512.81-144.75178.002,047.004,350.102,133.0049.1311,793.64

    2001:1010,430.0013.492.9534,581.79169,963.00229,202.00-522.03-123.45-1,714.001,113.004,519.502,079.0051.8811,872.47

    2001:1110,430.0012.753.0234,673.44171,383.00231,748.00-531.25-102.16-1,102.00562.003,894.702,117.4051.5011,920.45

    2001:1210,400.0013.463.0634,765.09177,731.00233,975.00-540.47-80.864,180.001,778.004,350.102,133.0050.7511927.76

    ER

    OBSER

    1997:93,275.00

    1997:103,670.00

    1997:113,648.00

    1997:124,650.00

    1998:110,375.00

    1998:28,750.00

    1998:38,325.00

    1998:47,970.00

    1998:510,525.00

    1998:614,900.00

    1998:713,000.00

    1998:811,075.00

    1998:910,700.00

    1998:107,550.00

    1998:117,300.00

    1998:128,025.00

    1999:18,950.00

    1999:28,730.00

    1999:38,685.00

    1999:48,260.00

    1999:58,105.00

    1999:66,726.00

    1999:76,875.00

    1999:87,565.00

    1999:98,386.00

    1999:106,900.00

    1999:117,425.00

    1999:127,100.00

    2000:17,425.00

    2000:27,505.00

    2000:37,590.00

    2000:47,945.00

    2000:58,620.00

    2000:68,735.00

    2000:79,003.00

    2000:88,290.00

    2000:98,780.00

    2000:109,395.00

    2000:119,530.00

    2000:129,595.00

    2001:19,450.00

    2001:29,835.00

    2001:310,400.00

    2001:411,675.00

    2001:511,058.00

    2001:611,440.00

    2001:79,525.00

    2001:88,865.00

    2001:910,435.00

    2001:1010,430.00

    2001:1110,430.00

    2001:1210,400.00

    ER

    ER

    Periode Penelitian

    Rupiah per dollar

    Gambar 4.1. Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap US$

    PTB

    OBSRdep-Inainf-InaRdep-USInf-USOBSr-riil Inar-riil ASPTBData yang digunakan suku Bunga Deposito 1 Bulan

    1997:926.581.095.560.251997:925.495.3120.18

    1997:1023.881.395.550.251997:1022.495.3017.18

    1997:1121.50.795.61-0.061997:1120.715.5515.16

    1997:1219.741.725.88-0.121997:1218.025.7612.27

    1998:120.386.885.530.191998:113.505.348.16

    1998:222.7912.765.530.191998:210.035.344.68

    1998:342.925.495.580.191998:337.435.3932.04

    1998:449.164.555.560.191998:444.615.3739.24

    1998:558.095.385.560.181998:552.715.3847.33

    1998:652.834.635.570.121998:648.205.4542.75

    1998:750.348.565.570.121998:741.785.4536.33

    1998:854.876.305.560.121998:848.575.4443.13

    1998:960.973.755.490.121998:957.225.3751.85

    1998:1060.85-0.275.240.241998:1060.585.0055.58

    1998:1154.120.085.160.001998:1154.045.1648.88

    1998:1241.241.425.47-0.061998:1239.825.4134.41

    1999:137.12.974.890.241999:134.134.6529.48

    1999:237.321.264.860.121999:236.064.7431.32

    1999:336.97-0.254.880.301999:336.724.5832.15

    1999:433.46-0.614.840.731999:432.854.1128.73

    1999:529.72-0.284.840.001999:529.444.8424.60

    1999:624.14-0.345.010.001999:623.805.0118.79

    1999:718.15-1.055.130.301999:717.104.8312.27

    1999:813.22-0.935.250.241999:812.295.017.28

    1999:912.44-0.825.340.481999:911.624.866.75

    1999:1012.670.065.360.181999:1012.615.187.43

    1999:1112.420.255.50.061999:1112.175.446.73

    1999:1212.521.736.340.001999:1210.796.344.45

    2000:112.391.325.740.302000:111.075.445.63

    2000:211.810.075.830.592000:211.745.246.50

    2000:311.21-0.456.010.822000:310.765.195.57

    2000:410.830.566.10.062000:410.276.044.23

    2000:510.730.846.490.122000:59.896.373.51

    2000:610.680.506.60.532000:610.186.074.11

    2000:710.751.286.570.232000:79.476.343.13

    2000:811.490.516.550.002000:810.986.554.43

    2000:911.65-0.066.560.522000:911.596.045.55

    2000:1011.731.166.550.172000:1010.576.384.19

    2000:1111.931.326.570.062000:1110.616.514.10

    2000:1212.051.946.62-0.062000:1210.116.563.54

    2001:112.970.335.830.632001:112.645.207.44

    2001:213.90.875.470.402001:213.035.077.96

    2001:314.160.895.090.232001:313.274.868.40

    2001:413.850.464.770.402001:413.394.379.02

    2001:514.171.134.110.452001:513.043.669.38

    2001:614.351.673.860.172001:612.683.698.99

    2001:714.452.123.76-0.282001:712.333.488.85

    2001:815.16-0.213.590.002001:814.953.5911.36

    2001:916.010.642.990.452001:915.372.5412.83

    2001:1016.260.682.43-0.342001:1015.582.0913.49

    2001:1116.371.712.08-0.172001:1114.661.9112.75

    2001:1216.591.621.9-0.392001:1214.971.5113.46

    PTB

    r-riil Ina

    r-riil AS

    PTB

    Periode Penelitian

    Persentase

    Gambar 4.2. Perbedaan Suku Bunga Indonesia-Amerika

    THR

    OBSP-InaP-ASTHR

    1997:91171021.13

    1997:101201021.17

    1997:111221031.19

    1997:121311021.28

    1998:11541011.54

    1998:21681001.68

    1998:31771001.77

    1998:41771001.77

    1998:51911001.91

    1998:62101002.10

    1998:72251002.25

    1998:82321002.33

    1998:9240992.42

    1998:10235992.37

    1998:11233992.35

    1998:12233982.36

    1999:1244992.48

    1999:2249982.54

    1999:3250982.54

    1999:4249992.52

    1999:52451002.46

    1999:62421002.41

    1999:72351012.34

    1999:82401022.36

    1999:92451032.39

    1999:102411022.40

    1999:112371032.30

    1999:122421022.36

    2000:12461032.39

    2000:22491042.39

    2000:32481052.36

    2000:42521052.40

    2000:52571052.44

    2000:62611072.43

    2000:72261072.11

    2000:82621072.46

    2000:92491082.31

    2000:102521092.33

    2000:112721082.51

    2000:122751092.52

    2001:12781122.48

    2001:22831102.57

    2001:32881092.65

    2001:42981092.72

    2001:53051102.78

    2001:63111092.86

    2001:73111072.91

    2001:83011072.81

    2001:93041072.84

    2001:103081042.95

    2001:113141043.02

    2001:123141033.06

    THR

    P-Ina

    P-AS

    Periode Penelitian

    Indeks Harga

    Gambar 4.3. Tingkat Harga di Indonesia dan Amerika

    RGDP

    THR

    Periode

    Perbandingan

    Gambar 4.4. Harga Relatif Indonesia-Amerika

    MS

    OBSRGDP

    1997:936,430.68

    1997:1036,561.43

    1997:1136,692.17

    1997:1236,822.91

    1998:133,560.10

    1998:233,168.75

    1998:332,777.41

    1998:432,386.07

    1998:531,994.73

    1998:631,603.38

    1998:731,212.04

    1998:830,820.70

    1998:930,429.35

    1998:1030,038.01

    1998:1129,646.67

    1998:1229,255.33

    1999:131,460.02

    1999:231,468.07

    1999:331,476.12

    1999:431,484.16

    1999:531,492.21

    1999:631,500.26

    1999:731,508.31

    1999:831,516.35

    1999:931,524.40

    1999:1031,532.45

    1999:1131,540.50

    1999:1231,548.55

    2000:132,401.78

    2000:232,539.85

    2000:332,677.93

    2000:432,816.00

    2000:532,954.08

    2000:633,092.15

    2000:733,230.23

    2000:833,368.31

    2000:933,506.38

    2000:1033,644.46

    2000:1133,782.53

    2000:1233,920.61

    2001:133,756.93

    2001:233,848.58

    2001:333,940.23

    2001:434,031.88

    2001:534,123.53

    2001:634,215.18

    2001:734,306.83

    2001:834,398.49

    2001:934,490.14

    2001:1034,581.79

    2001:1134,673.44

    2001:1234,765.09

    MS

    RGDP

    Periode Penelitian

    Dalam Milyar Rupiah

    Gambar 4.5. Perkembangan GDP Riil

    NFA

    OBSMS

    1997:966,258.00

    1997:1067,351.00

    1997:1169,856.00

    1997:1278,343.00

    1998:192,800.00

    1998:292,509.00

    1998:398,270.00

    1998:495,368.00

    1998:5103,941.00

    1998:6109,480.00

    1998:7105,822.00

    1998:8104,583.00

    1998:9102,563.00

    1998:1099,603.00

    1998:11100,971.00

    1998:12101,197.00

    1999:1101,953.00

    1999:2103,458.00

    1999:3105,705.00

    1999:4100,708.00

    1999:5103,301.00

    1999:6105,964.00

    1999:7106,075.00

    1999:8109,564.00

    1999:9118,124.00

    1999:10116,315.00

    1999:11117,292.00

    1999:12124,633.00

    2000:1122,417.00

    2000:2122,160.00

    2000:3124,663.00

    2000:4127,367.00

    2000:5130,225.00

    2000:6133,832.00

    2000:7135,739.00

    2000:8136,530.00

    2000:9135,430.00

    2000:10138,886.00

    2000:11141,204.00

    2000:12162,186.00

    2001:1145,345.00

    2001:2149,879.00

    2001:3148,375.00

    2001:4154,297.00

    2001:5155,791.00

    2001:6160,142.00

    2001:7162,154.00

    2001:8166,851.00

    2001:9164,237.00

    2001:10169,963.00

    2001:11171,383.00

    2001:12177,731.00

    NFA

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    MS

    Periode

    Milyar Rupiah

    Gambar 4.6. Penawaran Uang M1 (Money Supply)

    IAL

    OBSNFA

    1997:967,631.003963.4117.0638630168

    1997:1066,902.00

    1997:1161,043.00

    1997:1267,985.00

    1998:1146,691.00

    1998:2108,383.00

    1998:3112,930.00

    1998:4127,655.00

    1998:5174,014.00

    1998:6246,557.00

    1998:7226,420.00

    1998:8204,788.00

    1998:9200,088.00

    1998:10133,661.00

    1998:11126,004.00

    1998:12141,677.00

    1999:1181,235.00

    1999:2172,240.00

    1999:3186,989.00

    1999:4151,590.00

    1999:5154,006.00

    1999:6112,077.00

    1999:7121,101.00

    1999:8137,058.00

    1999:9166,188.00

    1999:10121,070.00

    1999:11140,851.00

    1999:12129,096.00

    2000:1138,940.00

    2000:2134,260.00

    2000:3137,943.00

    2000:4145,903.00

    2000:5167,931.00

    2000:6181,904.00

    2000:7188,969.00

    2000:8165,519.00

    2000:9177,658.00

    2000:10206,401.00

    2000:11210,824.00

    2000:12210,733.00

    2001:1207,581.00

    2001:2226,194.00

    2001:3248,254.002.4595821443

    2001:4296,722.00166,344.00

    2001:5283,884.00

    2001:6293,223.00

    2001:7232,702.00

    2001:8180,293.00

    2001:9203,671.00

    2001:10229,202.00

    2001:11231,748.00

    2001:12233,975.0010328.5822.6531550794

    IAL

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    NFA

    Periode

    Milyar Rupiah

    Gambar 4.7. Perkembangan Cadangan Devisa (NFA)

    IATL

    OBSIAL

    1997:9363.41

    1997:10352.88

    1997:11342.34

    1997:12331.81

    1998:1162.57

    1998:2127.61

    1998:392.66

    1998:457.71

    1998:522.76

    1998:6-12.19

    1998:7-47.14

    1998:8-82.09

    1998:9-117.05

    1998:10-152.00

    1998:11-186.95

    1998:12-221.90

    1999:1-137.50

    1999:2-154.09

    1999:3-170.68

    1999:4-187.27

    1999:5-203.86

    1999:6-220.45

    1999:7-237.05

    1999:8-253.64

    1999:9-270.23

    1999:10-286.82

    1999:11-303.41

    1999:12-320.00

    2000:1-310.18

    2000:2-322.71

    2000:3-335.24

    2000:4-347.76

    2000:5-360.29

    2000:6-372.82

    2000:7-385.35

    2000:8-397.88

    2000:9-410.40

    2000:10-422.93

    2000:11-435.46

    2000:12-447.99

    2001:1-439.03

    2001:2-448.25

    2001:3-457.47

    2001:4-466.69

    2001:5-475.92

    2001:6-485.14

    2001:7-494.36

    2001:8-503.58

    2001:9-512.81

    2001:10-522.03

    2001:11-531.25

    2001:12-540.47

    IATL

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    IAL

    Periode

    Juta Dollar Amerika

    Gambar 4.8. Perkembangan Investasi Asing Langsung (FDI)

    PULN

    OBSIATL

    1997:9-597.29

    1997:10-669.04

    1997:11-740.79

    1997:12-812.54

    1998:1-800.47

    1998:2-859.32

    1998:3-918.18

    1998:4-977.03

    1998:5-1,035.89

    1998:6-1,094.74

    1998:7-1,153.59

    1998:8-1,212.45

    1998:9-1,271.30

    1998:10-1,330.16

    1998:11-1,389.01

    1998:12-1,447.86

    1999:1-703.83

    1999:2-639.17

    1999:3-574.50

    1999:4-509.83

    1999:5-445.17

    1999:6-380.50

    1999:7-315.83

    1999:8-251.17

    1999:9-186.50

    1999:10-121.83

    1999:11-57.17

    1999:127.50

    2000:1-405.27

    2000:2-414.05

    2000:3-422.84

    2000:4-431.62

    2000:5-440.41

    2000:6-449.19

    2000:7-457.98

    2000:8-466.76

    2000:9-475.55

    2000:10-484.33

    2000:11-493.11

    2000:12-501.90

    2001:1-315.14

    2001:2-293.84

    2001:3-272.55

    2001:4-251.25

    2001:5-229.95

    2001:6-208.65

    2001:7-187.35

    2001:8-166.05

    2001:9-144.75

    2001:10-123.45

    2001:11-102.16

    2001:12-80.86

    PULN

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    IATL

    Periode

    Juta Dollar Amerika

    Gambar 4.9. Perkembangan Investasi Asing Tidak Langsung

    PUS

    OBSPULNULN

    1997:91,242.00135452.00

    1997:102,190.00137642.00

    1997:111,298.00138940.00

    1997:12-2,852.00136088.00

    1998:13,594.00139682.00

    1998:2710.00140392.00

    1998:31,630.00142022.00

    1998:4-3,474.00138548.00

    1998:51,104.00139652.00

    1998:62,723.00142375.00

    1998:73,005.00145380.00

    1998:81,140.00146520.00

    1998:9-4,555.00141,965.00

    1998:105,213.00147,178.00

    1998:11-492.00146,686.00

    1998:124,200.00150,886.00

    1999:1846.00151,732.00

    1999:2747.00152,479.00

    1999:3-2,540.00149,939.00

    1999:4-3,255.00146,684.00

    1999:5-882.00145,802.00

    1999:6-853.00144,949.00

    1999:7-2,066.00142,883.00

    1999:8-331.00142,552.00

    1999:93,390.00145,942.00

    1999:10-1,032.00144,910.00

    1999:11-113.00144,797.00

    1999:123,300.00148,097.00

    2000:1-3,204.00144,893.00

    2000:299.00144,992.00

    2000:3-710.00144,282.00

    2000:4-644.00143,638.00

    2000:5-1,992.00141,646.00

    2000:62,557.00144,203.00

    2000:7-1,106.00143,097.00

    2000:8-1,277.00141,820.00

    2000:9-1,016.00140,804.00

    2000:10-807.00139,997.00

    2000:11628.00140,625.00

    2000:121,068.00141,693.00

    2001:1-1,496.00140,197.00

    2001:2221.00140,418.00

    2001:3-2,103.00138,315.00

    2001:41,421.00139,736.00

    2001:5262.00139,998.00

    2001:6-1,096.00138,902.00

    2001:7-1,182.00137,720.00

    2001:8-119.00137,601.00

    2001:9178.00137,779.00

    2001:10-1,714.00136,065.00

    2001:11-1,102.00134,963.00

    2001:124,180.00139,143.00

    PUS

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    PULN

    Periode

    Juta Dollar Amerika

    Gambar 4.9. Pertumbuhan Utang Luar Negeri

    X

    OBSPUS

    1997:91,474.93

    1997:101,511.44

    1997:111,547.95

    1997:121,584.45

    1998:11,526.98

    1998:21,549.03

    1998:31,571.08

    1998:41,593.13

    1998:51,615.18

    1998:61,637.23

    1998:71,659.27

    1998:81,681.32

    1998:91,703.37

    1998:101,725.42

    1998:111,747.47

    1998:121,769.52

    1999:12,151.59

    1999:22,229.03

    1999:32,306.47

    1999:42,383.91

    1999:52,461.34

    1999:62,538.78

    1999:72,616.22

    1999:82,693.66

    1999:92,771.09

    1999:102,848.53

    1999:112,925.97

    1999:123,003.41

    2000:12,258.28

    2000:21,246.00

    2000:32,515.00

    2000:41,600.00

    2000:51,786.00

    2000:63,679.00

    2000:71,380.00

    2000:81,820.00

    2000:91,754.00

    2000:101,288.00

    2000:111,767.17

    2000:121,718.06

    2001:11,432.00

    2001:21,338.00

    2001:31,987.00

    2001:41,967.00

    2001:52,061.00

    2001:62,418.00

    2001:71,472.00

    2001:82,231.00

    2001:92,047.00

    2001:101,113.00

    2001:11562.00

    2001:121,778.00

    X

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    PUS

    Periode

    Juta Dollar Amerika

    Gambar 4.10. Pembayaran Utang Swasta

    M

    OBSX-MigasX-Non MigasTotal Ekspor

    1997:9916.903790.204707.10

    1997:10993.503564.404557.90

    1997:11947.703731.304679.00

    1997:121003.103701.204704.30

    1998:1804.503344.504149.00

    1998:2754.203058.003812.20

    1998:3715.103839.604554.70

    1998:4514.003138.103652.10

    1998:5647.803272.003919.80

    1998:6619.503861.904481.40

    1998:7642.603936.304578.90

    1998:8609.603482.204091.80

    1998:9623.803385.604009.40

    1998:10658.603168.003826.60

    1998:11614.803250.603865.40

    1998:12667.503238.803906.30

    1999:1644.302373.603017.90

    1999:2576.802616.303193.10

    1999:3645.903307.103953.00

    1999:4648.003238.103886.10

    1999:5683.103147.303830.40

    1999:6556.803038.203595.00

    1999:7866.003367.804233.80

    1999:81014.103609.704623.80

    1999:9959.203577.904537.10

    1999:101059.103579.104638.20

    1999:11988.603468.504457.10

    1999:121148.003339.204487.20

    2000:11144.603249.404394.00

    2000:21100.403693.404793.80

    2000:31103.903847.504951.40

    2000:4987.604024.405012.00

    2000:51004.603853.304857.90

    2000:61185.804160.405346.20

    2000:71157.504233.505391.00

    2000:81310.804265.205576.00

    2000:91339.504433.405772.90

    2000:101399.104164.205563.30

    2000:111320.303919.005239.30

    2000:121312.403913.605226.00

    2001:11215.003675.304890.30

    2001:21106.103632.504738.60

    2001:31360.803877.205238.00

    2001:41074.303711.404785.70

    2001:51150.103700.504850.60

    2001:61088.303758.404846.70

    2001:71083.503782.204865.70

    2001:81010.504113.305123.80

    2001:9967.603382.504350.10

    2001:10895.103624.404519.50

    2001:11818.803075.903894.70

    2001:12967.603382.504350.10

    M

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    X-Migas

    X-Non Migas

    Total Ekspor

    Periode

    Juta Dollar Amerika

    4.11. Perkembangan Ekspor (X)

    Sheet1

    OBSM-MigasM-Non MigasTotal Impor

    1997:9322.803129.703,452.50

    1997:10338.703121.003,459.70

    1997:11245.503008.603,254.10

    1997:12390.402787.803,178.20

    1998:1430.202152.902,583.10

    1998:2359.801897.602,257.40

    1998:3198.502166.602,365.10

    1998:4121.501801.401,922.90

    1998:5206.101817.702,023.80

    1998:6133.102017.302,150.40

    1998:7205.402239.302,444.70

    1998:8208.001974.402,182.40

    1998:9221.602008.902,230.50

    1998:10193.302223.202,416.50

    1998:11137.202221.002,358.20

    1998:12239.002162.902,401.90

    1999:1236.401535.801,772.20

    1999:2286.401522.301,808.70

    1999:3175.501800.901,976.40

    1999:4222.001899.902,121.90

    1999:5196.001763.101,959.10

    1999:6221.301675.001,896.30

    1999:7365.501641.502,007.00

    1999:8388.701655.202,043.90

    1999:9505.601649.302,154.90

    1999:10379.701668.302,048.00

    1999:11321.701738.002,059.70

    1999:12382.201772.802,155.00

    2000:1427.301742.202,169.50

    2000:2362.901757.502,120.40

    2000:3477.601787.502,265.10

    2000:4463.701875.202,338.90

    2000:5445.401938.202,383.60

    2000:6474.001999.502,473.50

    2000:7499.702187.502,687.20

    2000:8673.002563.503,236.50

    2000:9684.602761.603,446.20

    2000:10604.802883.503,488.30

    2000:11609.402964.503,573.90

    2000:12297.103034.503,331.60

    2001:1234.302706.802,941.10

    2001:2463.002714.403,177.40

    2001:3487.002607.403,094.40

    2001:4439.902476.102,916.00

    2001:5607.802305.102,912.90

    2001:6518.102185.102,703.20

    2001:7530.101923.202,453.30

    2001:8524.101825.002,349.10

    2001:9477.701655.302,133.00

    2001:10443.701635.302,079.00

    2001:11365.001752.402,117.40

    2001:12477.701655.302,133.00

    Sheet1

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    M-Migas

    M-Non Migas

    Total Impor

    Periode

    Juta Dollar Amerika

    Gambar 4.12. Perkembangan Impor (M)

    CRI

    OBSPRIERIFRICRI

    1997:947.837.0023.0039.00

    1997:104837.0022.5038.88

    1997:114737.0033.0041.00

    1997:1248.937.0023.0039.00

    1998:15333.5024.5041.00

    1998:25333.5030.0042.38

    1998:35236.0025.5041.38

    1998:45136.5030.0042.13

    1998:55236.5025.0041.38

    1998:65537.0026.0043.25

    1998:75336.5030.5043.25

    1998:85537.0030.0044.25

    1998:95238.0025.0041.75

    1998:105339.0029.5043.63

    1998:115339.0030.0043.75

    1998:125439.0025.5043.13

    1999:15842.0023.0045.25

    1999:25640.5024.0044.13

    1999:35240.5024.5042.25

    1999:45340.5028.5043.75

    1999:55140.5029.0042.88

    1999:65140.5028.5042.75

    1999:75240.5024.0042.13

    1999:85240.5025.0042.38

    1999:95240.5024.5042.25

    1999:105240.5029.5043.50

    1999:115340.5024.5042.75

    1999:125340.5029.0043.88

    2000:15643.0023.5044.63

    2000:26140.5026.5047.25

    2000:36240.5023.5047.00

    2000:46240.5025.5047.50

    2000:56440.5025.0048.38

    2000:66440.5021.0047.38

    2000:76140.5026.0047.13

    2000:86140.5030.0048.13

    2000:96240.5025.0047.38

    2000:106340.5026.0048.13

    2000:116340.5025.5048.00

    2000:126340.5030.0049.13

    2001:15940.0025.5045.88

    2001:26240.5025.5047.50

    2001:36440.5024.5048.25

    2001:46440.5024.0048.13

    2001:56440.5029.0049.38

    2001:66640.5023.0048.88

    2001:76640.5030.5050.75

    2001:86640.5029.5050.50

    2001:96640.5024.0049.13

    2001:106640.5035.0051.88

    2001:116640.5033.5051.50

    2001:126640.5030.5050.75

    CRI

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    PRI

    Periode

    Indeks

    Gambar 4.13. Indeks Resiko Politik Negara Indonesia

    ERF

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    ERI

    Periode

    Indeks

    Gambar 4.14. Indeks Resiko Ekonomi Indonesia

    Interpolasi data

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    FRI

    Periode

    Indeks

    Gambar 4.15. Indeks Resiko Keuangan Indonesia

    CRi-data

    OBSPRIERIFRICRI

    1997:94837.0023.0039.00

    1997:104837.0022.5038.88

    1997:114737.0033.0041.00

    1997:124837.0023.0039.00

    1998:15333.5024.5041.00

    1998:25333.5030.0042.38

    1998:35236.0025.5041.38

    1998:45136.5030.0042.13

    1998:55236.5025.0041.38

    1998:65537.0026.0043.25

    1998:75336.5030.5043.25

    1998:85537.0030.0044.25

    1998:95238.0025.0041.75

    1998:105339.0029.5043.63

    1998:115339.0030.0043.75

    1998:125439.0025.5043.13

    1999:15842.0023.0045.25

    1999:25640.5024.0044.13

    1999:35240.5024.5042.25

    1999:45340.5028.5043.75

    1999:55140.5029.0042.88

    1999:65140.5028.5042.75

    1999:75240.5024.0042.13

    1999:85240.5025.0042.38

    1999:95240.5024.5042.25

    1999:105240.5029.5043.50

    1999:115340.5024.5042.75

    1999:125340.5029.0043.88

    2000:15643.0023.5044.63

    2000:26140.5026.5047.25

    2000:36240.5023.5047.00

    2000:46240.5025.5047.50

    2000:56440.5025.0048.38

    2000:66440.5021.0047.38

    2000:76140.5026.0047.13

    2000:86140.5030.0048.13

    2000:96240.5025.0047.38

    2000:106340.5026.0048.13

    2000:116340.5025.5048.00

    2000:126340.5030.0049.13

    2001:15940.0025.5045.88

    2001:26240.5025.5047.50

    2001:36440.5024.5048.25

    2001:46440.5024.0048.13

    2001:56440.5029.0049.38

    2001:66640.5023.0048.88

    2001:76640.5030.5050.75

    2001:86640.5029.5050.50

    2001:96640.5024.0049.13

    2001:106640.5035.0051.88

    2001:116640.5033.5051.50

    2001:126640.5030.5050.75

    CRi-data

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    PRI

    ERI

    FRI

    CRI

    Periode

    Indeks Resiko

    Gambar 4.13. Perkembangan Country Risk Index (CRI)

    OBSR-sim-InaR-Sim-USEROBSERFSuku Bunga deposito 1 bulan

    1997:926.585.563275.001997:93963.41

    1997:1023.885.553670.001997:104342.71

    1997:1121.505.613648.001997:114227.67

    1997:1219.745.884650.001997:125294.49

    1998:120.385.5310375.001998:111915.69

    1998:222.795.538750.001998:210260.25

    1998:342.925.588325.001998:311433.56

    1998:449.165.567970.001998:411444.92

    1998:558.095.5610525.001998:516053.78

    1998:652.835.5714900.001998:621941.74

    1998:750.345.5713000.001998:718820.10

    1998:854.875.5611075.001998:816536.08

    1998:960.975.4910700.001998:916636.36

    1998:1060.855.247550.001998:1011748.56

    1998:1154.125.167300.001998:1110874.08

    1998:1241.245.478025.001998:1210895.54

    1999:137.104.898950.001999:111832.80

    1999:237.324.868730.001999:211563.76

    1999:336.974.888685.001999:311472.02

    1999:433.464.848260.001999:410624.01

    1999:529.724.848105.001999:510121.52

    1999:624.145.016726.001999:68012.68

    1999:718.155.136875.001999:77770.13

    1999:813.225.257565.001999:88167.93

    1999:912.445.348386.001999:98981.41

    1999:1012.675.366900.001999:107404.39

    1999:1112.425.507425.001999:117938.81

    1999:1212.526.347100.001999:127538.78

    2000:112.395.747425.002000:17918.76

    2000:211.815.837505.002000:27953.80

    2000:311.216.017590.002000:37984.68

    2000:410.836.107945.002000:48320.80

    2000:510.736.498620.002000:58985.49

    2000:610.686.608735.002000:69091.39

    2000:710.756.579003.002000:79379.33

    2000:811.496.558290.002000:88699.53

    2000:911.656.568780.002000:99226.90

    2000:1011.736.559395.002000:109881.66

    2000:1111.936.579530.002000:1110040.81

    2000:1212.056.629595.002000:1210116.01

    2001:112.975.839450.002001:110124.7310328.5833333333

    2001:213.905.479835.002001:210664.09

    2001:314.165.0910400.002001:311343.28

    2001:413.854.7711675.002001:412735.09

    2001:514.174.1111058.002001:512170.43

    2001:614.353.8611440.002001:612640.06

    2001:714.453.769525.002001:710543.22

    2001:815.163.598865.002001:89890.68

    2001:916.012.9910435.002001:911793.64

    2001:1016.262.4310430.002001:1011872.47

    2001:1116.372.0810430.002001:1111920.45

    2001:1216.591.9010400.002001:1211927.76

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    ERF

    Periode

    Rupiah per dollar

    Gambar 4.14. Ekspektasi Nilai Tukar Rupiah (ERF)

    TahunGDP

    TahunIALIATL1996203442,396.008490.8180300501

    1996619453171997238784,650.005135.0537634409

    19974677-50151998256848,025.003200.4984423676

    1998-356-134901999367307,100.005173.2394366197

    1999-2745-41782000291719,595.003040.2292860865

    2000-4549-544320012881410,400.002770.5769230769

    2001-5877-2376378051.4

    397934.3

    Yt-2376411132.1Yt23858

    Yt-1-5443Yt-1309301,474.932051.1875

    1480972,396.00354840.411,511.442075.7291666667

    0.08333333331416932,396.00339496.431,547.952100.2708333333

    1391432,396.00333386.6281,584.452124.8125

    1-315.1412,258.281,526.982071.3541666667

    2-293.8480.0543191.631944444453958.333333333322,209.171,549.032083.8958333333

    3-272.5583.1945438.618055555554618.532,160.061,571.082096.4375

    4-251.2586.2647685.604166666755278.666666666742,110.941,593.132108.9791666667

    5-229.9589.2649932.590277777855938.833333333352,061.831,615.182121.5208333333

    6-208.6560.7640428.930555555666533.392361111162,012.721,637.232134.0625

    7-187.3559.4740868.12568721.927083333371,963.611,659.272146.6041666667

    8-166.0558.2541307.319444444470910.461805555581,914.501,681.322159.1458333333

    9-144.7557.1141746.513888888973098.996527777891,865.391,703.372171.6875

    10-123.4556.0342185.708333333375287.53125101,816.281,725.422184.2291666667

    11-102.1655.0242624.902777777877476.0659722222111,767.171,747.472196.7708333333

    12-80.8654.0643064.097222222279664.6006944444121,718.061,769.522209.3125

    -2,376.0053.1543503.291666666781853.135416666723,858.002,151.592638.9375

    52.2943942.486111111184041.67013888892,229.032715.6458333333

    51.4744381.680555555586230.20486111112,306.472792.3541666667

    50.6944820.87588418.73958333332,383.912869.0625

    49.9545260.069444444490607.27430555562,461.342945.7708333333

    49.4341786.038194444484540.67361111112,538.783022.4791666667

    48.7141623.197916666785459.18752,616.223099.1875

    48.0041460.357638888986377.70138888892,693.663175.8958333333

    47.3141297.517361111187296.21527777782,771.093252.6041666667

    46.6341134.677083333388214.72916666672,848.533329.3125

    45.9740971.836805555689133.24305555562,925.973406.0208333333

    45.3240808.996527777890051.75694444443,003.413482.7291666667

    44.6840646.1562590970.27083333332,258.282719.6284722222

    44.0640483.315972222291888.78472222222,209.171939

    43.4540320.475694444492807.29861111112,160.063262

    42.8540157.635416666793725.81252,110.941840

    42.2639994.795138888994644.32638888892,061.832215

    89.1228877.423958333332401.77534722222,012.723268

    88.4228770.868541666732539.85104166671,963.611810

    87.7228664.31312532677.92673611111,914.502269

    87.0228557.757708333332816.00243055561,865.392171

    86.3428451.202291666732954.0781251,816.281721

    85.6528344.64687533092.15381944441,767.172194.6979166667

    84.9828238.091458333333230.22951388891,718.062142.2048611111

    84.3128131.536041666733368.30520833331886

    83.6428024.98062533506.38090277781619

    82.9827918.425208333333644.45659722222370

    82.3327811.869791666733782.53229166672284

    81.6827705.31437533920.60798611112828

    82.9928015.579583333333,756.932809

    82.6427973.150416666733,848.582016

    82.2927930.7212533,940.233070

    81.9527888.292083333334,031.881804

    81.6027845.862916666734,123.531362

    81.2627803.4337534,215.181471

    80.9227761.004583333334,306.832479

    80.5827718.575416666734,398.49

    80.2427676.1462534,490.14

    79.9127633.717083333334,581.79

    79.5727591.287916666734,673.44

    79.2427548.8587534,765.09

    Indeks Resiko Ekonomi (Economic Risk Index) Negara IndonesiaIndeks Resiko Keuangan (Financial Risk Index) Negara IndonesiaIndeks Resiko Politik (Political Risk Index) Negara IndonesiaIndeks Resiko Politik (Political Risk Index) Negara IndonesiaIndeks Resiko Negara Indonesia (Country Risk Indeks)

    Economi Risk Rating (ERR)Financial Risk Rating (FRR)OBS:Government Stability (A)Socioeconomic condition (B)Investment Profile (C)Internal Conflict (D)External Conflict (E)OBS:Other Categories (F)Overall - Political Risk Rating (PRR)OBS:ComponentCRI

    OBSGDP/AVRRGDP GIRBB/GDPCA/GDPTotalOBSFD/GDPFDS/XCA/XOR (M)ERSTotalGULSPSSubUNCCPovSubCVPRPDSubCWTRRCDSubWCBCFPSubCMiPRiPL&OETDABQSubSub ASub BSub CSub DSub ESub FTotalPRRERRFRR

    1997:90.505.5010.0010.0011.0037.001997:93.506.5011.501.500.0023.001997:920.001.003.001.001.001.003.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001997:91.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.003.003.004.009.0012.0017.0048.001997:948.0037.0023.0039.00

    1997:100.505.5010.0010.0011.0037.001997:103.506.0011.501.500.0022.501997:1020.001.003.001.001.001.003.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001997:101.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.003.003.004.009.0012.0017.0048.001997:1048.0037.0022.5038.88

    1997:110.505.5010.0010.0011.0037.001997:113.506.0012.001.5010.0033.001997:1120.001.003.001.001.001.003.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001997:111.001.005.001.005.001.002.0016.003.003.004.009.0012.0016.0047.001997:1147.0037.0033.0041.00

    1997:120.505.5010.0010.0011.0037.001997:123.506.0012.001.500.0023.001997:1220.001.003.001.001.001.003.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001997:121.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.003.003.004.009.0012.0017.0048.001997:1248.0037.0023.0039.00

    1998:10.003.508.0010.0012.0033.501998:14.506.0012.501.500.0024.501998:133.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001998:11.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.009.0012.0018.0053.001998:153.0033.5024.5041.00

    1998:20.004.006.5010.0013.0033.501998:25.005.5012.502.005.0030.001998:233.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.002.005.0012.001998:21.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.009.0012.0018.0053.001998:253.0033.5030.0042.38

    1998:30.004.008.5010.0013.5036.001998:35.006.0012.502.000.0025.501998:333.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.001.005.0011.001998:31.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.009.0011.0018.0052.001998:352.0036.0025.5041.38

    1998:40.004.008.5010.0014.0036.501998:45.005.0013.002.005.0030.001998:433.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.001.005.0011.001998:41.001.005.002.005.001.002.0017.008.002.004.009.0011.0017.0051.001998:451.0036.5030.0042.13

    1998:50.004.008.5010.0014.0036.501998:55.005.0013.002.000.0025.001998:533.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.002.009.005.001.005.0011.001998:51.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.009.0011.0018.0052.001998:552.0036.5025.0041.38

    1998:60.004.008.5010.0014.5037.001998:65.006.0013.002.000.0026.001998:633.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.005.0012.005.001.005.0011.001998:61.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.004.0012.0011.0018.0055.001998:655.0037.0026.0043.25

    1998:70.004.007.5010.0015.0036.501998:75.006.0013.001.505.0030.501998:733.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.001.004.003.004.005.0012.005.001.005.0011.001998:71.001.005.001.005.001.002.0016.008.002.004.0012.0011.0016.0053.001998:753.0036.5030.5043.25

    1998:80.004.008.0010.0015.0037.001998:85.005.0013.501.505.0030.001998:833.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.003.004.005.0012.005.001.005.0011.001998:81.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.008.002.005.0012.0011.0017.0055.001998:855.0037.0030.0044.25

    1998:90.004.009.0010.0015.0038.001998:95.005.0013.501.500.0025.001998:933.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001998:91.001.005.001.005.001.002.0016.008.002.005.0010.0011.0016.0052.001998:952.0038.0025.0041.75

    1998:100.004.0010.0010.0015.0039.001998:105.004.5013.501.505.0029.501998:1033.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001998:101.001.005.001.005.002.002.0017.008.002.005.0010.0011.0017.0053.001998:1053.0039.0029.5043.63

    1998:110.004.0010.0010.0015.0039.001998:115.004.5014.001.505.0030.001998:1133.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001998:111.001.005.002.005.001.002.0017.008.002.005.0010.0011.0017.0053.001998:1153.0039.0030.0043.75

    1998:120.004.0010.0010.0015.0039.001998:125.504.5014.001.500.0025.501998:1233.002.008.000.001.001.002.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001998:121.001.005.002.005.002.002.0018.008.002.005.0010.0011.0018.0054.001998:1254.0039.0025.5043.13

    1999:10.007.509.5010.0015.0042.001999:15.501.5013.502.500.0023.001999:133.002.008.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.004.005.0010.005.001.005.0011.001999:11.001.005.002.005.005.002.0021.008.003.005.0010.0011.0021.0058.001999:158.0042.0023.0045.25

    1999:20.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:25.502.0013.502.500.5024.001999:223.002.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.003.005.009.005.001.005.0011.001999:21.001.005.002.005.005.002.0021.007.003.005.009.0011.0021.0056.001999:256.0040.5024.0044.13

    1999:30.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:35.503.0013.502.500.0024.501999:313.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.003.005.009.005.001.005.0011.001999:31.001.002.002.005.005.002.0018.006.003.005.009.0011.0018.0052.001999:352.0040.5024.5042.25

    1999:40.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:45.502.5013.502.005.0028.501999:413.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.003.005.009.005.001.005.0011.001999:42.001.002.002.005.005.002.0019.006.003.005.009.0011.0019.0053.001999:453.0040.5028.5043.75

    1999:50.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:55.502.5013.502.505.0029.001999:513.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:52.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.005.008.0011.0018.0051.001999:551.0040.5029.0042.88

    1999:60.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:65.502.0013.502.505.0028.501999:613.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.002.005.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:62.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.005.008.0011.0018.0051.001999:651.0040.5028.5042.75

    1999:70.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:75.502.5013.502.500.0024.001999:713.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:72.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.006.008.0011.0018.0052.001999:752.0040.5024.0042.13

    1999:80.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:86.003.0013.502.500.0025.001999:813.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:82.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.006.008.0011.0018.0052.001999:852.0040.5025.0042.38

    1999:90.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:96.002.5013.502.500.0024.501999:913.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:92.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.006.008.0011.0018.0052.001999:952.0040.5024.5042.25

    1999:100.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:106.002.5013.502.505.0029.501999:1013.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.002.005.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:102.001.002.001.005.005.002.0018.006.003.006.008.0011.0018.0052.001999:1052.0040.5029.5043.50

    1999:110.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:116.002.5013.502.500.0024.501999:1113.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.001.006.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:112.001.002.002.005.005.002.0019.006.003.006.008.0011.0019.0053.001999:1153.0040.5024.5042.75

    1999:120.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.501999:126.002.0013.502.505.0029.001999:1213.002.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.001.001.006.008.005.001.005.0011.001999:122.001.002.002.005.005.002.0019.006.003.006.008.0011.0019.0053.001999:1253.0040.5029.0043.88

    2000:10.008.0010.0010.0015.0043.002000:13.504.0013.502.500.0023.502000:113.001.005.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:12.003.002.005.005.005.002.0024.005.003.006.007.0011.0024.0056.002000:156.0043.0023.5044.63

    2000:20.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:23.507.0013.502.500.0026.502000:233.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:22.003.002.005.005.005.005.0027.007.003.006.007.0011.0027.0061.002000:261.0040.5026.5047.25

    2000:30.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:33.504.0013.502.500.0023.502000:333.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:32.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.007.003.006.007.0011.0028.0062.002000:362.0040.5023.5047.00

    2000:40.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:43.506.5013.502.000.0025.502000:433.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:42.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.007.003.006.007.0011.0028.0062.002000:462.0040.5025.5047.50

    2000:50.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:53.506.0013.502.000.0025.002000:523.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.004.006.0010.005.001.005.0011.002000:52.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.006.003.006.0010.0011.0028.0064.002000:564.0040.5025.0048.38

    2000:60.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:63.502.0013.502.000.0021.002000:623.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.004.006.0010.005.001.005.0011.002000:62.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.006.003.006.0010.0011.0028.0064.002000:664.0040.5021.0047.38

    2000:70.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:73.507.0013.502.000.0026.002000:723.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:72.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.006.003.006.007.0011.0028.0061.002000:761.0040.5026.0047.13

    2000:80.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:83.506.5013.501.505.0030.002000:823.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:82.003.002.005.006.005.005.0028.006.003.006.007.0011.0028.0061.002000:861.0040.5030.0048.13

    2000:90.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:93.506.5013.501.500.0025.002000:923.001.006.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:93.003.002.005.006.005.005.0029.006.003.006.007.0011.0029.0062.002000:962.0040.5025.0047.38

    2000:100.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:103.507.5013.501.500.0026.002000:1033.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:103.003.002.005.006.005.005.0029.007.003.006.007.0011.0029.0063.002000:1063.0040.5026.0048.13

    2000:110.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:113.506.0013.501.501.0025.502000:1133.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:113.003.002.005.006.005.005.0029.007.003.006.007.0011.0029.0063.002000:1163.0040.5025.5048.00

    2000:120.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502000:123.506.5013.501.505.0030.002000:1233.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.001.005.0011.002000:123.003.002.005.006.005.005.0029.007.003.006.007.0011.0029.0063.002000:1263.0040.5030.0049.13

    2001:10.005.0010.0010.0015.0040.002001:13.506.5013.502.000.0025.502001:133.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.000.001.006.007.005.002.005.0012.002001:13.003.002.005.001.005.005.0024.007.003.006.007.0012.0024.0059.002001:159.0040.0025.5045.88

    2001:20.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:23.507.0013.501.500.0025.502001:233.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:23.003.002.005.001.005.005.0024.007.003.006.0010.0012.0024.0062.002001:262.0040.5025.5047.50

    2001:30.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:33.505.5013.502.000.0024.502001:333.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:33.003.004.005.001.005.005.0026.007.003.006.0010.0012.0026.0064.002001:364.0040.5024.5048.25

    2001:40.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:43.505.0013.502.000.0024.002001:433.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:43.003.004.005.001.005.005.0026.007.003.006.0010.0012.0026.0064.002001:464.0040.5024.0048.13

    2001:50.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:53.505.0013.502.005.0029.002001:533.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:53.003.004.005.001.005.005.0026.007.003.006.0010.0012.0026.0064.002001:564.0040.5029.0049.38

    2001:60.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:63.504.0013.502.000.0023.002001:633.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:63.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:666.0040.5023.0048.88

    2001:70.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:73.506.5013.502.005.0030.502001:733.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:73.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:766.0040.5030.5050.75

    2001:80.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:83.505.0013.502.505.0029.502001:833.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:83.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:866.0040.5029.5050.50

    2001:90.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:93.504.5013.502.500.0024.002001:933.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:93.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:966.0040.5024.0049.13

    2001:100.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:104.007.5013.502.507.5035.002001:1033.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:103.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:1066.0040.5035.0051.88

    2001:110.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:114.008.5013.502.505.0033.502001:1133.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:113.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:1166.0040.5033.5051.50

    2001:120.005.5010.0010.0015.0040.502001:124.005.5013.502.505.0030.502001:1233.001.007.000.002.001.003.002.001.003.006.003.001.006.0010.005.002.005.0012.002001:123.005.004.005.001.005.005.0028.007.003.006.0010.0012.0028.0066.002001:1266.0040.5030.5050.75

    Sumber : International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) - PRS Group, Inc.Sumber : International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) - PRS Group, Inc.Sumber : International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) - PRS Group, Inc.,Sumber : International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) - PRS Group, Inc.

  • 1-*DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    DR. INDRA SUHENDRA, SE., Msi, JURUSAN EKBANG UNTIRTA BANTEN

    Chart3

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    FRI

    Periode

    Indeks

    Indeks Resiko Keuangan Indonesia

    Master

    OBSERPTBTHRRGDPMSNFAIALIATLPULNPUSXMCRIErf

    1997:93,275.0020.181.1336,430.6866,258.0067,631.00363.41-597.291,242.001,474.934,707.103,452.5039.003,963.41

    1997:103,670.0017.181.1736,561.4367,351.0066,902.00352.88-669.042,190.001,511.444,557.903,459.7038.884,342.71

    1997:113,648.0015.161.1936,692.1769,856.0061,043.00342.34-740.791,298.001,547.954,679.003,254.1041.004,227.67

    1997:124,650.0012.271.2836,822.9178,343.0067,985.00331.81-812.54-2,852.001,584.454,704.303,178.2039.005,294.49

    1998:110,375.008.161.5433,560.1092,800.00146,691.00162.57-800.473,594.001,526.984,149.002,583.1041.0011,915.69

    1998:28,750.004.681.6833,168.7592,509.00108,383.00127.61-859.32710.001,549.033,812.202,257.4042.3810,260.25

    1998:38,325.0032.041.7732,777.4198,270.00112,930.0092.66-918.181,630.001,571.084,554.702,365.1041.3811,433.56

    1998:47,970.0039.241.7732,386.0795,368.00127,655.0057.71-977.03-3,474.001,593.133,652.101,922.9042.1311,444.92

    1998:510,525.0047.331.9131,994.73103,941.00174,014.0022.76-1,035.891,104.001,615.183,919.802,023.8041.3816,053.78

    1998:614,900.0042.752.1031,603.38109,480.00246,557.00-12.19-1,094.742,723.001,637.234,481.402,150.4043.2521,941.74

    1998:713,000.0036.332.2531,212.04105,822.00226,420.00-47.14-1,153.593,005.001,659.274,578.902,444.7043.2518,820.10

    1998:811,075.0043.132.3330,820.70104,583.00204,788.00-82.09-1,212.451,140.001,681.324,091.802,182.4044.2516,536.08

    1998:910,700.0051.852.4230,429.35102,563.00200,088.00-117.05-1,271.30-4,555.001,703.374,009.402,230.5041.7516,636.36

    1998:107,550.0055.582.3730,038.0199,603.00133,661.00-152.00-1,330.165,213.001,725.423,826.602,416.5043.6311,748.56

    1998:117,300.0048.882.3529,646.67100,971.00126,004.00-186.95-1,389.01-492.001,747.473,865.402,358.2043.7510,874.08

    1998:128,025.0034.412.3629,255.33101,197.00141,677.00-221.90-1,447.864,200.001,769.523,906.302,401.9043.1310,895.54

    1999:18,950.0029.482.4831,460.02101,953.00181,235.00-137.50-703.83846.002,151.593,017.901,772.2045.2511,832.80

    1999:28,730.0031.322.5431,468.07103,458.00172,240.00-154.09-639.17747.002,229.033,193.101,808.7044.1311,563.76

    1999:38,685.0032.152.5431,476.12105,705.00186,989.00-170.68-574.50-2,540.002,306.473,953.001,976.4042.2511,472.02

    1999:48,260.0028.732.5231,484.16100,708.00151,590.00-187.27-509.83-3,255.002,383.913,886.102,121.9043.7510,624.01

    1999:58,105.0024.602.4631,492.21103,301.00154,006.00-203.86-445.17-882.002,461.343,830.401,959.1042.8810,121.52

    1999:66,726.0018.792.4131,500.26105,964.00112,077.00-220.45-380.50-853.002,538.783,595.001,896.3042.758,012.68

    1999:76,875.0012.272.3431,508.31106,075.00121,101.00-237.05-315.83-2,066.002,616.224,233.802,007.0042.137,770.13

    1999:87,565.007.282.3631,516.35109,564.00137,058.00-253.64-251.17-331.002,693.664,623.802,043.9042.388,167.93

    1999:98,386.006.752.3931,524.40118,124.00166,188.00-270.23-186.503,390.002,771.094,537.102,154.9042.258,981.41

    1999:106,900.007.432.4031,532.45116,315.00121,070.00-286.82-121.83-1,032.002,848.534,638.202,048.0043.507,404.39

    1999:117,425.006.732.3031,540.50117,292.00140,851.00-303.41-57.17-113.002,925.974,457.102,059.7042.757,938.81

    1999:127,100.004.452.3631,548.55124,633.00129,096.00-320.007.503,300.003,003.414,487.202,155.0043.887,538.78

    2000:17,425.005.632.3932,401.78122,417.00138,940.00-310.18-405.27-3,204.002,258.284,394.002,169.5044.637,918.76

    2000:27,505.006.502.3932,539.85122,160.00134,260.00-322.71-414.0599.001,246.004,793.802,120.4047.257,953.80

    2000:37,590.005.572.3632,677.93124,663.00137,943.00-335.24-422.84-710.002,515.004,951.402,265.1047.007,984.68

    2000:47,945.004.232.4032,816.00127,367.00145,903.00-347.76-431.62-644.001,600.005,012.002,338.9047.508,320.80

    2000:58,620.003.512.4432,954.08130,225.00167,931.00-360.29-440.41-1,992.001,786.004,857.902,383.6048.388,985.49

    2000:68,735.004.112.4333,092.15133,832.00181,904.00-372.82-449.192,557.003,679.005,346.202,473.5047.389,091.39

    2000:79,003.003.132.1133,230.23135,739.00188,969.00-385.35-457.98-1,106.001,380.005,391.002,687.2047.139,379.33

    2000:88,290.004.432.4633,368.31136,530.00165,519.00-397.88-466.76-1,277.001,820.005,576.003,236.5048.138,699.53

    2000:98,780.005.552.3133,506.38135,430.00177,658.00-410.40-475.55-1,016.001,754.005,772.903,446.2047.389,226.90

    2000:109,395.004.192.3333,644.46138,886.00206,401.00-422.93-484.33-807.001,288.005,563.303,488.3048.139,881.66

    2000:119,530.004.102.5133,782.53141,204.00210,824.00-435.46-493.11628.001,767.175,239.303,573.9048.0010,040.81

    2000:129,595.003.542.5233,920.61162,186.00210,733.00-447.99-501.901,068.001,718.065,226.003,331.6049.1310,116.01

    2001:19,450.007.442.4833,756.93145,345.00207,581.00-439.03-315.14-1,496.001,432.004,890.302,941.1045.8810,124.73

    2001:29,835.007.962.5733,848.58149,879.00226,194.00-448.25-293.84221.001,338.004,738.603,177.4047.5010,664.09

    2001:310,400.008.402.6533,940.23148,375.00248,254.00-457.47-272.55-2,103.001,987.005,238.003,094.4048.2511,343.28

    2001:411,675.009.022.7234,031.88154,297.00296,722.00-466.69-251.251,421.001,967.004,785.702,916.0048.1312,735.09

    2001:511,058.009.382.7834,123.53155,791.00283,884.00-475.92-229.95262.002,061.004,850.602,912.9049.3812,170.43

    2001:611,440.008.992.8634,215.18160,142.00293,223.00-485.14-208.65-1,096.002,418.004,846.702,703.2048.8812,640.06

    2001:79,525.008.852.9134,306.83162,154.00232,702.00-494.36-187.35-1,182.001,472.004,865.702,453.3050.7510,543.22

    2001:88,865.0011.362.8134,398.49166,851.00180,293.00-503.58-166.05-119.002,231.005,123.802,349.1050.509,890.68

    2001:910,435.0012.832.8434,490.14164,237.00203,671.00-512.81-144.75178.002,047.004,350.102,133.0049.1311,793.64

    2001:1010,430.0013.492.9534,581.79169,963.00229,202.00-522.03-123.45-1,714.001,113.004,519.502,079.0051.8811,872.47

    2001:1110,430.0012.753.0234,673.44171,383.00231,748.00-531.25-102.16-1,102.00562.003,894.702,117.4051.5011,920.45

    2001:1210,400.0013.463.0634,765.09177,731.00233,975.00-540.47-80.864,180.001,778.004,350.102,133.0050.7511927.76

    ER

    OBSER

    1997:93,275.00

    1997:103,670.00

    1997:113,648.00

    1997:124,650.00

    1998:110,375.00

    1998:28,750.00

    1998:38,325.00

    1998:47,970.00

    1998:510,525.00

    1998:614,900.00

    1998:713,000.00

    1998:811,075.00

    1998:910,700.00

    1998:107,550.00

    1998:117,300.00

    1998:128,025.00

    1999:18,950.00

    1999:28,730.00

    1999:38,685.00

    1999:48,260.00

    1999:58,105.00

    1999:66,726.00

    1999:76,875.00

    1999:87,565.00

    1999:98,386.00

    1999:106,900.00

    1999:117,425.00

    1999:127,100.00

    2000:17,425.00

    2000:27,505.00

    2000:37,590.00

    2000:47,945.00

    2000:58,620.00

    2000:68,735.00

    2000:79,003.00

    2000:88,290.00

    2000:98,780.00

    2000:109,395.00

    2000:119,530.00

    2000:129,595.00

    2001:19,450.00

    2001:29,835.00

    2001:310,400.00

    2001:411,675.00

    2001:511,058.00

    2001:611,440.00

    2001:79,525.00

    2001:88,865.00

    2001:910,435.00

    2001:1010,430.00

    2001:1110,430.00

    2001:1210,400.00

    ER

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    ER

    Periode Penelitian

    Rupiah per dollar

    Gambar 4.1. Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap US$

    PTB

    OBSRdep-Inainf-InaRdep-USInf-USOBSr-riil Inar-riil ASPTBData yang digunakan suku Bunga Deposito 1 Bulan

    1997:926.581.095.560.251997:925.495.3120.18

    1997:1023.881.395.550.251997:1022.495.3017.18

    1997:1121.50.795.61-0.061997:1120.715.5515.16

    1997:1219.741.725.88-0.121997:1218.025.7612.27

    1998:120.386.885.530.191998:113.505.348.16

    1998:222.7912.765.530.191998:210.035.344.68

    1998:342.925.495.580.191998:337.435.3932.04

    1998:449.164.555.560.191998:444.615.3739.24

    1998:558.095.385.560.181998:552.715.3847.33

    1998:652.834.635.570.121998:648.205.4542.75

    1998:750.348.565.570.121998:741.785.4536.33

    1998:854.876.305.560.121998:848.575.4443.13

    1998:960.973.755.490.121998:957.225.3751.85

    1998:1060.85-0.275.240.241998:1060.585.0055.58

    1998:1154.120.085.160.001998:1154.045.1648.88

    1998:1241.241.425.47-0.061998:1239.825.4134.41

    1999:137.12.974.890.241999:134.134.6529.48

    1999:237.321.264.860.121999:236.064.7431.32

    1999:336.97-0.254.880.301999:336.724.5832.15

    1999:433.46-0.614.840.731999:432.854.1128.73

    1999:529.72-0.284.840.001999:529.444.8424.60

    1999:624.14-0.345.010.001999:623.805.0118.79

    1999:718.15-1.055.130.301999:717.104.8312.27

    1999:813.22-0.935.250.241999:812.295.017.28

    1999:912.44-0.825.340.481999:911.624.866.75

    1999:1012.670.065.360.181999:1012.615.187.43

    1999:1112.420.255.50.061999:1112.175.446.73

    1999:1212.521.736.340.001999:1210.796.344.45

    2000:112.391.325.740.302000:111.075.445.63

    2000:211.810.075.830.592000:211.745.246.50

    2000:311.21-0.456.010.822000:310.765.195.57

    2000:410.830.566.10.062000:410.276.044.23

    2000:510.730.846.490.122000:59.896.373.51

    2000:610.680.506.60.532000:610.186.074.11

    2000:710.751.286.570.232000:79.476.343.13

    2000:811.490.516.550.002000:810.986.554.43

    2000:911.65-0.066.560.522000:911.596.045.55

    2000:1011.731.166.550.172000:1010.576.384.19

    2000:1111.931.326.570.062000:1110.616.514.10

    2000:1212.051.946.62-0.062000:1210.116.563.54

    2001:112.970.335.830.632001:112.645.207.44

    2001:213.90.875.470.402001:213.035.077.96

    2001:314.160.895.090.232001:313.274.868.40

    2001:413.850.