Making Decisions and Solving...

15
Management, by Williams South-Western College Publishing Copyright © 2000 Making Decisions and Solving Problems Lecture Outlines, Kreitner Lecture Outlines, Kreitner

Transcript of Making Decisions and Solving...

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Making Decisions and Solving Problems

Lecture Outlines, KreitnerLecture Outlines, Kreitner

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Inti pengambilan keputusan:Inti pengambilan keputusan:

berarti memilih alternatif, yg jelas harus alternatif yg terbaik (the best alternative)

Contoh pengambilan keputusan tentang:Jenis usahaLokasi usahaPendanaanInvestasi, dll

Sumber : Mukhyi, 2008

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Certainty:Jika semua informasi yg diperlukan untuk membuat

keputusan diketahui secara sempurna & tdk berubah

Risk:Jika informasi sempurna tidak tersedia, tetapi seluruh

peristiwa yg akan terjadi besarta probabilitasnya diketahui

Uncertainty:Jika seluruh informasi yg mungkin terjadi diketahui,

tetapi tanpa mengetahui probabilitasnya masing-masing 

Sumber : Mukhyi, 2008

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin

Company. All rights reserved.

9–4

Decision-Making ConditionsDecision-Making Conditions

Level of ambiguity and chances of making a bad decision

Lower HigherModerate

Certainty UncertaintyRisk

The decisionmaker facesconditions of...

Figure 9.1Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin

Company. All rights reserved.

9–5

Tipe KeputusanTipe Keputusan

✔Keputusan yang terprogram; keputusan yang terstruktur, yang muncul berulang-ulang

✔Keputusan yang tidak terprogram ; muncul karena ada masalah yang luar biasa, tidak ada pedoman yang cukup rinci

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Figure 6.3Figure 6.3A General-A General-Decision Decision Making Making ModelModel

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin

Company. All rights reserved.

9–7

Proses Pengambilan KeputusanProses Pengambilan Keputusan

✔Identifikasi masalah (Produk, Lokasi, Pendanaan, Pemasaran, dll)

✔Analisis lingkungan yang relevan✔Mengembangkan alternatif keputusan✔Memilih alternatif yang terbaik✔Melakukan implementasi✔Memonitor keputusan

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin

Company. All rights reserved.

9–8

The Classical Model of Decision The Classical Model of Decision MakingMaking

When faced with a

decision situation,

managers should. . .

. . . and end up with

a decision that best

serves the interests

of the organization.

• obtain complete

and perfect information

• eliminate uncertainty

• evaluate everything

rationally and logically

Figure 9.2Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin

Company. All rights reserved.

9–9

Steps in the Rational Steps in the Rational Decision-Making ProcessDecision-Making Process

Step Detail Example

1. Recognizing and defining the decision situation

Some stimulus indicates that a decision must be made. The stimulus may be positive or negative.

A plant manager sees that employee turnover has in-creased by 5 percent.

2. Identifying alterna-tives

Both obvious and creative alternatives are desired. In general, the more important the decision, the more alterna-tives should be considered.

The plant manager can in-crease wages, increase bene-fits, or change hiring stan-dards.

3. Evaluating alterna-tives

Each alternative is evaluated to determine its feasibility, its satisfactoriness, and its consequences.

Increasing benefits may not be feasible. Increasing wages and changing hiring standards may satisfy all conditions.

Table 9.1aCopyright © by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin

Company. All rights reserved.

9–10

Steps in the Rational Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Process (cont’d)Decision-Making Process (cont’d)Step Detail Example

4. Selecting the best alternative

Consider all situational factors, and choose the alternative that best fits the manager’s situation.

Changing hiring standards will take an extended period of time to cut turnover, so increase wages.

5. Implementing the chosen alternative

The chosen alternative is implemented into the organizational system.

The plant manager may need permission from corporate headquarters. The human resource department establishes a new wage structure.

6. Following up and evaluating the results

At some time in the future, the manager should ascertain the extent to which the alternative chosen in step 4 and implemented in step 5 has worked.

The plant manager notes that, six months later, turnover has dropped to its previous level.

Table 9.1bCopyright © by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin

Company. All rights reserved.

9–11

Rule of thumbRule of thumb

✔Pengalaman, kejadian yang pernah dialami yang selalu dijadikan referensi

✔Stereotype, orang bali, jawa adalah pekerja yang baik

✔Anchoring, membandingkan sesuatu dengan yang ada di dalam otak.

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin

Company. All rights reserved.

9–12

Faktor Penghalang Pengambilan Keputusan Faktor Penghalang Pengambilan Keputusan yang Efektifyang Efektif

✔ Relaxed Avoidance : tidak bersedia bertindak karena tahu konsekuensi tidak terlalu besar.

✔ Relaxed Change : baru bertindak setelah memahami konsekuensinya cukup serius. Memilih alternatif yang pertama kali ditemukan, belum optimal

✔ Defensive Avoidance : membiarkan orang lain mengerjakan keputusan dengan menanggung konsekuensi keputusan tersebut. Memilih alternatif yang paling aman.

✔ Panic : mengambil keputusan yang tidak rasional atau tidak realistis.

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Four Constraints to Rational Four Constraints to Rational Decision MakingDecision Making

LimitedResources

InformationOverload

MemoryProblems

ExpertiseProblems

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin

Company. All rights reserved.

9–14

Advantages and Disadvantages ofAdvantages and Disadvantages ofGroup and Team Decision MakingGroup and Team Decision Making

Advantages Disadvantages

1. More information and knowledge are available.

2. More alternatives are likely to be generated.

3. More acceptance of the final decision is likely.

4. Enhanced communication of the decision may result.

5. Better decisions generally emerge.

1. The process takes longer than indi-vidual decision making, so it is cost-lier.

2. Compromise decisions resulting from indecisiveness may emerge.

3. One person may dominate the group. 4. Groupthink may occur.

Table 9.2Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

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Management, by WilliamsSouth-Western College PublishingCopyright © 2000

Beberapa teknik yg digunakan dlm pengambilan keputusan:Beberapa teknik yg digunakan dlm pengambilan keputusan:

Situasi keputusan Pemecahan Teknik Ada kepastian (Certainty)

Deterministik - Linear Programming- Model Transportasi- Model Penugasan- Model Inventori- Model Antrian- Model “network”

Ada risiko (Risk) Probabilistik - Model keputusan probabilistik- Model Inventori probabilistik- Model Antrian probabilistik

Tdk ada kepastian (Uncertainty)

Tak diketahui Analisis keputusan dlm keadaan ketidakpastian

Ada konflik (Conflict) Tergantung tindakan lawan

Teori permainan (game theory)

Sumber : Mukhyi, 2008