43

LAMPIRAN

Data Mentah

Tahun EKSPOR (USD) Inflasi (%)

Cadangan Devisa (USD)

Nilai Tukar (Rupiah)

1979 15,453,888,931.61 16.23 4,205,180,824.74 623.06

1980 22,088,390,908.48 18.04 6,802,959,429.33 626.99

1981 23,629,067,635.25 12.27 6,248,009,714.47 631.76

1982 20,176,590,282.75 9.45 4,562,680,197.54 661.42

1983 22,488,286,937.06 11.80 4,902,569,210.57 909.26

1984 23,177,770,004.16 10.46 5,729,969,488.11 1,025.94

1985 20,279,854,572.57 4.72 5,989,249,388.40 1,110.58

1986 16,387,068,862.14 5.82 5,264,622,147.94 1,282.56

1987 18,661,070,326.12 9.28 7,094,971,196.78 1,643.85

1988 21,110,162,562.00 8.05 6,321,735,766.93 1,685.70

1989 24,640,067,882.58 6.42 6,699,438,101.01 1,770.06

1990 28,982,531,189.76 7.82 8,656,792,855.20 1,842.81

1991 33,063,806,609.37 9.42 10,357,989,011.23 1,950.32

1992 38,801,726,176.40 7.52 11,482,019,252.79 2,029.92

1993 42,274,397,859.50 9.67 12,474,062,370.51 2,087.10

1994 46,896,633,113.50 8.53 13,321,136,813.01 2,160.75

1995 53,185,312,942.04 9.42 14,907,558,865.92 2,248.61

1996 58,717,201,041.71 7.97 19,396,148,967.36 2,342.30

1997 60,106,038,403.58 6.23 17,486,799,642.90 2,909.38

1998 50,555,726,234.55 58.45 23,605,842,945.52 10,013.62

1999 49,720,260,589.81 20.48 27,345,097,667.36 7,855.15

2000 67,621,169,165.83 3.69 29,352,929,561.48 8,421.78

2001 62,625,875,833.91 11.50 28,103,636,180.34 10,260.85

2002 63,956,798,804.50 11.90 32,033,585,247.44 9,311.19

2003 71,553,141,044.99 6.76 36,256,203,641.60 8,577.13

2004 82,744,351,781.02 6.06 36,310,733,909.32 8,938.85

2005 97,387,627,234.84 10.45 34,730,799,049.25 9,704.74

2006 113,143,424,880.16 13.11 42,597,040,281.59 9,159.32

2007 127,226,102,177.01 6.41 56,935,744,023.30 9,141.00

2008 152,090,401,421.80 10.23 51,640,625,721.32 9,698.96

2009 130,357,798,591.19 4.39 66,118,917,968.14 10,389.94

2010 183,480,563,627.39 5.13 96,210,980,584.04 9,090.43

2011 235,095,130,017.56 5.36 110,136,597,662.44 8,770.43

2012 225,744,402,474.11 4.28 112,797,627,833.07 9,386.63

2013 218,308,408,827.83 6.41 99,386,826,239.08 10,461.24

2014 210,820,082,760.73 6.39 111,862,594,562.00 11,865.21

2015 182,158,299,305.40 6.36 105,928,847,088.72 13,389.41

44

2016 177,886,012,771.60 3.53 116,369,601,851.06 13,308.33

2017 204,999,366,082.65 3.81 130,215,330,382.96 13,380.83

2018 218,498,866,082.38 3.20 120,660,974,090.95 14,236.94

45

Estimation

Dependent Variable: CADANGAN_DEVISA__USD_

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/01/20 Time: 10:28

Sample: 1979 2018

Included observations: 40

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -2.795826 1.253026 -2.231260 0.0320

EKSPOR__USD_ 0.986599 0.065426 15.07960 0.0000 INFLASI____ -0.000563 0.002960 -0.190163 0.8502

NT 0.260718 0.052912 4.927351 0.0000

R-squared 0.984740 Mean dependent var 23.86021 Adjusted R-squared 0.983468 S.D. dependent var 1.141144 S.E. of regression 0.146723 Akaike info criterion -0.905899 Sum squared resid 0.774997 Schwarz criterion -0.737011 Log likelihood 22.11798 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.844834 F-statistic 774.3697 Durbin-Watson stat 1.106909

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

46

Uji Normalitas

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Series: ResidualsSample 1979 2018Observations 40

Mean 3.62e-15Median -0.007158Maximum 0.268205Minimum -0.326869Std. Dev. 0.140967Skewness -0.138749Kurtosis 2.639990

Jarque-Bera 0.344354Probability 0.841830

47

Uji Multikolerasi

Dependent Variable: EKSPOR__USD_

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/01/20 Time: 10:49

Sample: 1979 2018

Included observations: 40

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 18.93742 0.469762 40.31281 0.0000

INFLASI____ -0.019559 0.006706 -2.916572 0.0060 NT 0.735267 0.055370 13.27918 0.0000

R-squared 0.836347 Mean dependent var 24.83573 Adjusted R-squared 0.827501 S.D. dependent var 0.887675 S.E. of regression 0.368678 Akaike info criterion 0.914251 Sum squared resid 5.029162 Schwarz criterion 1.040917 Log likelihood -15.28502 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.960049 F-statistic 94.54419 Durbin-Watson stat 0.307729

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

48

Dependent Variable: INFLASI____

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/01/20 Time: 10:49

Sample: 1979 2018

Included observations: 40

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 191.5746 62.06456 3.086699 0.0038

EKSPOR__USD_ -9.557116 3.276832 -2.916572 0.0060 NT 6.698370 2.724870 2.458235 0.0188

R-squared 0.188876 Mean dependent var 9.675009 Adjusted R-squared 0.145032 S.D. dependent var 8.813782 S.E. of regression 8.149619 Akaike info criterion 7.105858 Sum squared resid 2457.403 Schwarz criterion 7.232524 Log likelihood -139.1172 Hannan-Quinn criter. 7.151656 F-statistic 4.307861 Durbin-Watson stat 1.538307

Prob(F-statistic) 0.020802

Dependent Variable: NT

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/01/20 Time: 10:50

Sample: 1979 2018

Included observations: 40

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -19.84301 2.124835 -9.338611 0.0000

EKSPOR__USD_ 1.124171 0.084657 13.27918 0.0000 INFLASI____ 0.020959 0.008526 2.458235 0.0188

R-squared 0.826981 Mean dependent var 8.279368 Adjusted R-squared 0.817628 S.D. dependent var 1.067486 S.E. of regression 0.455870 Akaike info criterion 1.338819 Sum squared resid 7.689233 Schwarz criterion 1.465485 Log likelihood -23.77637 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.384617 F-statistic 88.42457 Durbin-Watson stat 0.268760

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

49

Uji Autokorelasi

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic 5.141971 Prob. F(2,34) 0.0112 Obs*R-squared 9.289094 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0096

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/17/20 Time: 18:44

Sample: 1979 2018

Included observations: 40 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 0.133334 1.130949 0.117896 0.9068

EKSPOR__USD_ -0.009425 0.059072 -0.159555 0.8742 INFLASI____ 0.002003 0.002741 0.730745 0.4699

NT 0.009760 0.047810 0.204138 0.8395 RESID(-1) 0.555024 0.173593 3.197266 0.0030 RESID(-2) -0.202939 0.173471 -1.169873 0.2502

R-squared 0.232227 Mean dependent var -1.12E-15 Adjusted R-squared 0.119320 S.D. dependent var 0.140967 S.E. of regression 0.132290 Akaike info criterion -1.070161 Sum squared resid 0.595021 Schwarz criterion -0.816829 Log likelihood 27.40321 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.978564 F-statistic 2.056788 Durbin-Watson stat 1.980896

Prob(F-statistic) 0.095325

50

Uji Heterokedastsisitas

Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey

F-statistic 0.157052 Prob. F(3,36) 0.9245 Obs*R-squared 0.516743 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.9152 Scaled explained SS 0.343219 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.9517

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID^2

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/01/20 Time: 10:30

Sample: 1979 2018

Included observations: 40

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -0.107434 0.221910 -0.484134 0.6312 EKSPOR__USD_ 0.005976 0.011587 0.515727 0.6092

INFLASI____ 0.000238 0.000524 0.453249 0.6531 NT -0.002887 0.009371 -0.308053 0.7598

R-squared 0.012919 Mean dependent var 0.019375 Adjusted R-squared -0.069338 S.D. dependent var 0.025128 S.E. of regression 0.025985 Akaike info criterion -4.367988 Sum squared resid 0.024307 Schwarz criterion -4.199100 Log likelihood 91.35975 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.306923 F-statistic 0.157052 Durbin-Watson stat 2.187648

Prob(F-statistic) 0.924453

51

Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey

F-statistic 1.219720 Prob. F(3,36) 0.3166 Obs*R-squared 3.690608 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.2969 Scaled explained SS 3.301330 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.3475

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: LRESID2

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/01/20 Time: 10:32

Sample: 1979 2018

Included observations: 40

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 1.869611 18.01980 0.103753 0.9179

EKSPOR__USD_ -0.293031 0.940894 -0.311438 0.7573 INFLASI____ -0.077849 0.042565 -1.828950 0.0757

NT 0.130087 0.760934 0.170957 0.8652

R-squared 0.092265 Mean dependent var -5.084168 Adjusted R-squared 0.016621 S.D. dependent var 2.127787 S.E. of regression 2.110030 Akaike info criterion 4.425921 Sum squared resid 160.2802 Schwarz criterion 4.594809 Log likelihood -84.51842 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.486985 F-statistic 1.219720 Durbin-Watson stat 2.370787

Prob(F-statistic) 0.316588

52

Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser

F-statistic 0.046424 Prob. F(3,36) 0.9865 Obs*R-squared 0.154149 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.9846 Scaled explained SS 0.128472 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.9882

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: ARESID

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/01/20 Time: 10:33

Sample: 1979 2018

Included observations: 40

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -0.102544 0.725462 -0.141350 0.8884

EKSPOR__USD_ 0.011505 0.037880 0.303716 0.7631 INFLASI____ -0.000108 0.001714 -0.063155 0.9500

NT -0.008304 0.030635 -0.271076 0.7879

R-squared 0.003854 Mean dependent var 0.113381 Adjusted R-squared -0.079158 S.D. dependent var 0.081773 S.E. of regression 0.084948 Akaike info criterion -1.998916 Sum squared resid 0.259782 Schwarz criterion -1.830028 Log likelihood 43.97832 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.937851 F-statistic 0.046424 Durbin-Watson stat 2.275763

Prob(F-statistic) 0.986512

53

Heteroskedasticity Test: ARCH

F-statistic 0.295218 Prob. F(1,37) 0.5902 Obs*R-squared 0.308712 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.5785

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID^2

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/01/20 Time: 10:33

Sample (adjusted): 1980 2018

Included observations: 39 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 0.021137 0.005247 4.028510 0.0003

RESID^2(-1) -0.089432 0.164598 -0.543339 0.5902

R-squared 0.007916 Mean dependent var 0.019368 Adjusted R-squared -0.018897 S.D. dependent var 0.025456 S.E. of regression 0.025696 Akaike info criterion -4.435053 Sum squared resid 0.024430 Schwarz criterion -4.349743 Log likelihood 88.48354 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.404445 F-statistic 0.295218 Durbin-Watson stat 1.876646

Prob(F-statistic) 0.590155

54

Heteroskedasticity Test: White

F-statistic 2.033145 Prob. F(9,30) 0.0703 Obs*R-squared 15.15441 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.0868 Scaled explained SS 10.06550 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.3452

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID^2

Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/01/20 Time: 10:34

Sample: 1979 2018

Included observations: 40

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -5.671283 10.74777 -0.527671 0.6016

EKSPOR__USD_^2 -0.030059 0.029273 -1.026866 0.3127 EKSPOR__USD_*INFLASI____ 0.006076 0.003597 1.689235 0.1015

EKSPOR__USD_*NT 0.069193 0.045641 1.516036 0.1400 EKSPOR__USD_ 0.872379 1.112917 0.783867 0.4393 INFLASI____^2 -1.26E-05 5.18E-05 -0.242726 0.8099

INFLASI____*NT -0.003930 0.002418 -1.625276 0.1146 INFLASI____ -0.112544 0.072573 -1.550761 0.1314

NT^2 -0.031299 0.020023 -1.563203 0.1285 NT -1.154794 0.844770 -1.366992 0.1818

R-squared 0.378860 Mean dependent var 0.019375 Adjusted R-squared 0.192518 S.D. dependent var 0.025128 S.E. of regression 0.022580 Akaike info criterion -4.531184 Sum squared resid 0.015296 Schwarz criterion -4.108964 Log likelihood 100.6237 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.378523 F-statistic 2.033145 Durbin-Watson stat 2.241844

Prob(F-statistic) 0.070278