Basic Training:Saham sebagai

pilihan investasi &

Fundamental

Analysis, Technical

analysisOleh: Adi Nugroho Wicaksono, SE, MM

2

Tinjauan umum

Mengenal saham, Keuntungan & resiko, mekanisme

perdagangan, jenis investor.

Basic analisa fundamental

Basic analisa Teknikal

3

Apa itu “saham” ???

Bukti kepemilikan atau penyertaan

modal dalam perusahaan (perseroan

terbatas)

4

Dividen (pembagian keuntungan

perusahaan kepada pemegang saham)

Capital Gain (Keuntungan ketika

menjual saham lebih tinggi dari harga

beli)

“Keuntungan SAHAM dapat melampaui

keuntungan DEPOSITO”

Likuid

Keuntungan investasi saham

Dividen

Capital Gain

5

Risiko investasi saham

Capital Loss (Kerugian ketika menjual saham

lebih rendah dari harga beli)

Tidak ada pembagian dividen

Perusahaan bangkrut dan dilikuidasi

Saham disuspend oleh bursa

Saham di delist dari bursa

6

Keuntungan (return) saham vs. instrumen investasi lainnya

7

The risk and reward (in USD)

From bottom in 2008

JCI +381%

KLCI +79%

SET +376%

S&P 500 +247%

From bottom 1998

JCI +1772%

KLCI +473%

SET +931%

S&P 500 +199%

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17

Sumber: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE

8

Grafik pertumbuhan Jumlah Single Investor Identification (SID) (2012-2018)

281,256 320,506 364,465 434,107

894,116

1,120,000

1,610,000

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sumber: Ksei

9

investor asing dan lokal dalamkepemilikan saham

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Jul-11

Oct-

11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Jul-12

Oct-

12

Jan-1

3

Apr-

13

Jul-13

Oct-

13

Jan-1

4

Apr-

14

Jul-14

Oct-

14

Jan-1

5

Apr-

15

Jul-15

Oct-

15

Jan-1

6

Apr-

16

Jul-16

Oct-

16

Jan-1

7

Apr-

17

Jul-17

Oct-

17

Jan-1

8

Apr-

18

Jul-18

Oct-

18

Vol Foreign Vol Local

Sumber: BEI

600

1,100

1,600

2,100

2,600

Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Vol Foreign Vol Local

( Bil unit)

10

Jenis dari investor domestik danasing di Bursa Efek Indonesia

Jenis investor domestik Jenis investor asing

Sumber: BEI

11

Apa yang membuat harga saham“naik” atau “turun” ?

Perubahan Permintaan vs. Penawaran

Faktor yang mempengaruh:

- Kecenderungan untuk membeli/menjual dari pemegang

saham yang eksis.

- Kecenderungan pembelian dari calon pemegang saham.

- Insentif kepada investor yang minim

- Berita/newflow baik dari perusahaan (manajemen), maupun

media (faktor eksternal)

- Rekomendasi Analyst

12

Cara pembukaan rekening saham

13

Mekanisme perdagangan saham

14

Jenis Pasar di Bursa Efek

Pasar Perdana (pasar dimana saham dijual pertama

kali ke publik melalui proses IPO).

Pasar Sekunder :

a. Pasar reguler (transaksi saham setelah dicatatkan di

bursa)

b. Pasar Negosiasi. (transaksi saham melalui negosiasi

antar investor pribadi).

c. Pasar Tunai (transaksi saham pembayaran t+0)

15

Satuan Perdagangan saham1 lot saham-100 lembar saham

kelompok Harga Fraksi Harga Maksimum Perubahan

<Rp 200 Rp1 Rp10

Rp200, <Rp500 Rp2 Rp20

Rp500,<Rp2,000 Rp5 Rp50

Rp2,000,<Rp5000 Rp10 Rp100

>=Rp5,000 Rp25 Rp250

16

Basic Analisa Fundamental

Analisis yang menitiberatkan pada rasio finansial dan kejadian2

yang secara langsung maupun tidak langsung mempengaruhi

kinerja keuangan.

Analisis penilaian terhadap aset secara individual, untuk

mengetahui mendeteksi aset-aset yang tampaknya mispriced

Seorang fundamentalis mencoba mempelajari hubungan antara

harga aset dengan kondisi perusahaan. Nilai saham mewakili

nilai perusahaan. Nilai intrinsik saham < harga pasar adalah

Undervalued, sebaliknya nilai intrinsik saham > harga pasar

disebut Overvalued.

17

Peran research

Memberikan informasi/analisa berita-berita

baik dari dalam negeri maupun luar negeri

yang terkait dengan pasar modal/saham.

Merekomendasikan saham-saham yang layak

dibeli dan dijual berdasarkan analisa

fundamental/ teknikal

18

Metode research

Library research

Mempelajari informasi yang tersedia di publik mengenai

perusahaan dan industri (laporan keuangan, prospektus,

media, jurnal industri, dll)

Field research

Mengunjungi perusahaan

Juru bicara perusahaan – Direktur, Investor Relation, dll

Fasilitas produksi

Studi banding dengan pesaing

Nara sumber industry (AISI, Gaikindo, Pinsar)

19

Informasi yang berpengaruhterhadap saham

Pergerakan saham juga dipengaruhi oleh informasi/berita yang bersifat systematic risk (faktor risikoyang berpengaruh terhadap pasar secara keseluruhan), seperti:

Informasi dari bursa regional dan Wall Street.

Informasi kebijakan pemerintah (contoh kenaikan harga BBM)

Informasi pengumuman data-data makro ekonomi (inflasi, Suku bunga BI rate)

Informasi nilai tukar, minyak dunia.

Sementara pergerakan saham yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor unsystematic risk (risiko pada sahamsecara individual atau sektor), seperti :

Informasi data harga-harga tambang (metal, batu bara), dan kelapa sawit.

Informasi corporate action (pembagian deviden, pengumuman stock split, reverse stock split,saham bonus, dan rights issue (penambahan modal dengan hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu).M&A (merger & acquisition), divestasi.

Informasi kebijakan pemerintah yang berpengaruh terhadap sektor tertentu (contoh: laranganekspor bijih mineral).

Informasi saham secara individual (hasil riset report, berita saham individual, reputasipemilik/GCG)

20

Laporan keuangan

Neraca: Menggambarkan posisi keuangan

perusahaan pada suatu tanggal tertentu

Perhitungan laba rugi: Menggambarkan jumlah

pendapatan, biaya, dan laba/rugi perusahaan

pada suatu periode tertentu.

Laporan arus kas: Memuat sumber dan

pengeluaran kas perusahasan selama satu

periode.

21

Neraca

22

Laba dan Rugi

23

Kinerja P&L apakah sesuaiekspektasi analyst

24

Laporan Arus kas

Aktivitas

pembiayaanAktivitas

Operasi

Aktivitas

pembiayaanAktivitas

Investasi

Aktivitas

Operasi

Aktivitas

Investasi

25

Contoh Arus kas perusahaan

Net

Capex

Free

Cashflow:

Operating

cashflow-

capex

26

5 elemen kunci analisa keuangan

1. Growth ratio (Revenue growth, Operating.profit growth, Net profit

growth).

2. Profitability ratio:

Margin kotor (laba kotor/penjualan)

Laba usaha (Laba usaha/penjualan)

Net margin (laba kotor/ penjualan)

3. Operating efficiency:

Perputaran piutang: penjualan/rata-rata piutang

Perputaran persediaan: Harga pokok penjualan/rata-rata

persediaan.

27

5 elemen kunci analisa keuangan

4. Capital efficiency dan solvency

ROE: Return on Equity (net profit/modal)

ROA: Return on Asset (net profit/asset).

5. Liquidity:

Current ratio: (current asset/current liabilities)

28

+8%

+11%

+25%

+55%

+40%

Gross Margin: 34% 2018 vs.33% 2017

OP. Margin: 17% 2018 vs. 14% 2017

Net Margin: 15% 2018 vs. 12% 2017

29

Breakdown kinerja laba PGAS

30

LK PGAS 2010-2018 vs. harga saham

31

LK United Tractor 2018/2017

Gross Margin: 25% 2018 vs.22% 2017

OP. Margin: 20% 2018 vs. 17% 2017

Net Margin: 13% 2018 vs. 11% 2017

32

Breakdown kinerja UNTR

33

Price is a leading indicator

United Tractors Cuts

This Year’s Heavy

Equipment Sales

Outlook to be around

4,000 units this year

compared to previous

guidance at 4,900-5,000

units. (18/1/19)

34

Metode valuasi dasar

Asset approach: Nilai buku= Nilai pasar asset-nilai

pasar hutang perusahaan.

Market approach:

Harga saham dinyatakan dalam kelipatan (x)

Beberapa contoh: PER, PBV

Pada umumnya semakin rendah valuation multiple

dibandingkan dengan perusahaan sejenis, semakin murah

harga saham – ada perkecualian dan pertimbangan lain

Income approach:

Dihitung dengan melakukan present value dari laba bersih

yang didapatkan di masa datang.

35

Metode Valution multiples

Valuation multiples:

Price earning ratio (PER): harga saham /EPS (laba

bersih per saham).

Price earning ratio (PBV): harga saham/ BVPS (nilai

buku per saham).

36

Interprestasi valuasi multiple

Interprestasi P/E : Umumnya semakin tinggi P/E mencerminkan

investor terhadap pertumbuhan laba perusahaan di masa yang

akan datang.

Interprestasi P/BV: Investor menggunakan P/BV rasio karena

book value menyajikan kondisi keuangan yang relatif stabil. P/BV

biasanya juga digunakan ketika perusahaan mencatat rugi usaha,

sehingga P/E tidak bisa digunakan untuk mengukur valuasi.

Umumnya P/BV digunakan untuk segmen bisnis keuangan (bank).

37

Kwadran chart

P/E

ROE

High P/E

High ROE, earning

growth

High P/E

Low ROE,

earning growth

Low P/E

Low ROE,

earning growth

Low P/E

High ROE, earning

growth

Fair price/ fully valued

Undervalued/murah

Overvalued/mahal

Fair price/ fully valued

38

Contoh saham Low PER, High ROE menjadi high PER, High ROE

5x PER.

ROE 12.6%

22.6x P/E,

ROE: 12.6%.

39

Relative valuation in the sector

Company Market capsCountry

(USD m) FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19

Sri Rejeki Isman 521.1 Indonesia 7.6 5.4 6.4 5.3 1.0 0.8 0.0% 0.0% 9% 40%

Regional sector average

Bros Eastern Co 1,108.2 China 12.5 10.8 11.2 9.7 1.0 0.9 8.0% 8.6% 24.2% 15.0%

Eclat Textile company 3,486.1 Taiwan 23.9 21.0 17.0 14.7 6.4 5.8 28.0% 28.6% 46.6% 14.0%

Far Eastern New Century Corp5,528.3 Taiwan 13.0 12.1 9.9 9.2 0.9 0.8 6.2% 6.7% 53.4% 10.0%

Makalot Industrial Co Ltd 1,125.6 Taiwan 22.6 19.5 14.2 12.3 4.1 3.9 18.0% 20.3% 18.3% 16.1%

Vardhman Textile Ltd 836.8 India 8.8 7.5 6.0 5.3 1.1 1.0 13.1% 13.6% 19.9% 20.0%

Arvind Ltd 1,128.9 India 20.2 15.3 10.4 8.7 2.0 1.8 10.1% 12.8% 28.4% 37.4%

Pacific Textile Holdings 1,468.4 Hongkong 12.4 11.4 9.1 8.5 3.2 3.1 27.0% 28.2% 25.7% 8.7%

Texwinca Holdings Ltd 474.6 Hongkong 11.0 8.8 4.9 4.2 0.7 0.7 6.3% 7.8% 11.4% 24.5%

Texhong Textile Group Ltd 1,152.0 Hongkong 6.1 5.1 5.1 4.5 1.2 1.0 14.2% 21.7% 14.2% 19.8%

Luthai Textile Co 1,059.2 Hongkong 10.0 9.0 6.3 5.9 1.1 1.0 11.3% 11.7% 5.4% 10.5%

Shenzhou Int.Group 18,331.2 Hongkong 27.2 22.6 20.7 17.4 5.5 4.8 22.3% 23.9% 20.6% 20.3%

Average 14.6 12.4 10.1 8.8 2.3 2.1 13.7% 15.3% 23.1% 19.7%

PER EV/EBITDA PBR EPS growthROE %

40

Metode valuation: Income approach

DCF (discounted cash flow Model)

Mengukur nilai sekarang dari laba di masa

yang akan datang.

Value of firm: σ𝑡=1𝑛 𝐹𝐶𝐹𝑡

(1+𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶)𝑡+𝐹𝐶𝐹𝑛+1/(𝑊𝑎𝑐𝑐−𝑔)

(1+𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶)𝑛

WACC = 𝐸

𝐷+𝐸(Coe) +

𝐷

𝐷+𝐸(Cod) (1-tax)

Cost of equity: CAPM: Rf +β (Rm-Rf)

G= constant growth rate. (country risk premium= expected market return- risk free rate.

Indonesia = 2.8%)

Free Cash flow: operating cash flow- net capex.

41

Metode valuation: Income approach

Value of Equity = Value of firm

- Interest bearing liabilities

+ Cash

42

Key driver for financial modelling

Revenue drivers: Volumex harga jual rata-rata

Cost: COGS breakdown, OPEX breakdown.

Margin: Gross, EBIT, pre-tax, net margin.

Working capital: Day receivable, Inventory-

days, Days- payable.

Capital expenditure (belanja modal).

Dividend, Tambahan/pelunasan hutang &

modal.

43

Metode valuation: Sum of The Part (SOTP)

Valuasi SOTP adalah kombinasi metode valuasi multiple, asset

based, serta Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). Biasanya digunakan

untuk mengihtung valuasi sektor kongmolerasi yang memiliki segmen

bisnis yang berbeda. Contoh: Saham Astra International (ASII).

Menghitung kinerja bisnis otomotif, plantation, alat berat

menggunakan DCF, sementara bisnis keuangannya, seperti : FIF,

BNLI mengunakkan PBV.

44

Membaca laporan riset

BUY: If potential upside

>10%

SELL: If potential

downside <10%

HOLD: If price between

+/-10%

45

Aksi korporasi

Right issue: langkah perusahaan publik

menerbitkan saham baru yang dijual ke publik

Dividen tunai: bagian laba yang dibagikan

kepada pemegang saham dalam bentuk tunai

Saham bonus: saham yang dibagikan secara

Cuma-Cuma kepada pemegang saham

Dividend saham: laba yang dibagikan kepada

pemegang saham dalam bentuk saham.

46

Aksi korporasi (2)

Stock split: pemecahan nominal saham sesuai

dengan rasio yang ditentukan.

Stock reverse: Penciutan nilai nominal saham

sesuai dengan rasio yang ditentukan.

Tender offer : Penawaran untuk membeli sisa

saham Perusahaan Terbuka yang wajib

dilakukan oleh pengendali baru.

47

Aksi korporasi (3)

Akuisisi : badan hukum yang mengambil alih saham

perseroan, yang mengakibatkan beralihnya

pengendalian atas perseroan tersebut.

Merger : Proses penggabungan dua perusahaan

dengan salah satu diantaranya tetap berdiri dengan

nama perseroan, sementara perusahaan yang

bergabung kekayaannya dimasukkan dalam

perusahaan yang berdiri tersebut.

Backdoor listing: Akusisi perusahaan non Tbk terhadap

perusahaan Tbk.

48

Basic teknikal analysis

Filosopi teknikal Segalanya tercermin pada harga pasar

Harga bergerak dalam trend, dan trend berlanjut.

Pergerakan harga adalah berulang

49

Basic chart types

Line : plot setiap penutupan harga

Bar : plot harga dalam satu hari perdagangan

(harga pembukaan, tertinggi, terendah, dan

penutupan harga)

Candlesticks: gabungan dalam bentuk lilin

warna dalam satu hari perdagangan (harga

pembukaan, tertinggi, terendah, penutupan

harga).

50

Trend

Time Frame:

» Primary trend9 mo – 2 yr

» Intermediate trend6 wk – 9 mo

» Minor trend2 wk - 6 wk

51

Contoh Bar chart

Bar chart dapat menjelaskan periode dalam harian, mingguan,

hingga bulanan. Namun bar chart lebih popular digunakan

dalam chart harian.

52

Candlesticks

Bearish

candle

Bullish

candle

High

Low

Close

Open

Open

Close

53

Pola chart

Trend:

Up trend: urutan dari posisi higher high dan higher low

Down trend:urutan dari posisi lower high dan lower low

Sideways : Ketika harga bergerak stabil tanpa menunjukan trend

Reversal : ketika trend berbalik dari meningkat menjadi menurun,

dan sebaliknya

Resistance: ketika harga dipercaya sulit untuk berlanjut menguat.

Support:Ketigak penurunan harga tidak berlanjut turun.

Channel: pararel antara garis resistance dan support.

54

Pola Trend line

HH

HL

HHHH

HL

Up trend

LL

LH

LH

LLLL

Down trend

Sideways

HH: Higher High

HL: Higher Low

LH: Lower High

LL: Lower Low

55

Reversal pattern

Head and shoulders

Head Right

Shoulder

x

Y

Inverse head and

shoulders

x

y

56

Support & Resistance: High & Low

Highs Resistance

57

Channel pattern

58

Candlestick pattern

Top Reversal:

» Bearish Engulfing Pattern

» Dark Could Cover

» Evening Star

» Gravestone Doji

» Hanging Man

Bottom Reversal:

» Bullish Engulfing Pattern

» Piercing Pattern

» Morning Star

» Dragonfly Doji

» Hammer

59

Candlestick pattern

60

Candestick Pattern

61

Candlestick Pattern

62

Candlestick Pattern

63

Candlestick Pattern

64

Volume analysis

Volume adalah aspek penting dalam teknikal

analysis karena digunakan untuk

mengkonfirmasi trend dan juga pola chart.

Volume to stock relationship

Price Volume Indication

Rising Up Strong

Rising Down Weak

Declining Up Weak

Declining Down Strong

65

Technical Indicator - RSI

Overbought

Overbought If >= 70Oversold If <= 30

Rupiah, Aug 2014

66

Technical Indicator-MACD

IHSG, Jan 2015 Death cross: Sell

Golden cross: Buy

Thank You

Thank You

68 January 2014 68Aug 8th, 2017

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Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting

or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.

DISCLOSURES

Legal Entities Disclosures

Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in

Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a

member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim

Eng Securities Limited (License Number: 117/GP-UBCK) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange

of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and

regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

69 January 2014 69Aug 8th, 2017

Disclosure of Interest

Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an

underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.

Singapore: As of 8 January 2014, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.

Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should

exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting

commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.

Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for

Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.

As of 8 January 2014, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.

MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned

in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive

compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.

OTHERS

Analyst Certification of Independence

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is

or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

Reminder

Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks

involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates),

time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the

product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.