SUBSIDI BBM SUDAH BERWUJUD KANKER GANAS

Faisal Basri 27 September 2014

Indonesias oil reservesSource: PricewaterhouseCoopers, Oil and Gas in Indonesia, various issues.

Chart1

51234490

50954659

47225025

44374657

43004310

41904440

43704560

39904410

37504470

43003700

42303530

40403690

37403660

35902013

36002014

Proven

Potential

Sheet1

ProvenPotentialSeries 3

20005,1234,490

20015,0954,659

20024,7225,025

20034,4374,657

20044,3004,310

20054,1904,440

20064,3704,560

20073,9904,410

20083,7504,470

20094,3003,700

20104,2303,530

20114,0403,690

20123,7403,660

20133,590

20143,600

Crude oil production and unit prices* First semester (January-June)Source: Bank Indonesia

Chart1

97693.5

94959.6

94577.7

902109.2

862110.7

826104

796106.05

Production (thousand barrels) per day, LHS

Unit prices (US$/barrel), RHS

Sheet1

Production (thousand barrels) per day, LHSUnit prices (US$/barrel), RHSColumn1

200897693.5

200994959.6

201094577.7

2011902109.2

2012862110.7

2013826104

2014*796106.05

Sumber: APBN 2014 dan khusus untuk tahun 2013 dari Paparan Menteri ESDM pada Rapat Kerja denganKomisi VII DPR tanggal 29 Januari 2014.Konsumsi BBM bersubsidi naik terus: mengapa justru solar yang dibatasi?Juta Kiloliter

Chart1

7.711.519

4.611.820.9

2.412.823

1.714.124.5

1.214.827.3

1.115.929.3

Minyak Tanah

Solar

Premium

Sheet1

Minyak TanahSolarPremiumTotalGrowth

20087.711.519.038.2

20094.611.820.937.3-2.4

20102.412.823.038.22.4

20111.714.124.540.35.5

20121.214.827.343.37.4

20131.115.929.346.36.9

Konsumsi BBM meroket, produksi minyak melorot, impor kian menganga, siap menerkam perekonomianSource: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.Thousand barrel/dayOil production: Includes crude oil, tight oil, oil sands and NGLs (the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately). Excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and derivatives of coal and natural gas.

Oil consumption: inland demand plus aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of biogasoline (such as ethanol), biodiesel and derivatives of coal and natural gas are also included.Imports741.000 barrel/dayConsumptionProduction

Chart1

1577396

1605442

1339457

1343448

1412477

1325468

1390494

1343512

1342537

1409571

1462653

1592692

1504745

1511786

1510807

1503879

1547923

15201026

1518981

14721024

14281156

13401138

12491184

11761222

11301299

10961285

10181247

9721299

10061294

9941334

10031449

9521572

9181579

8821623

Production

Consumption

Sheet1

ProductionConsumption

19801577.00396.00

19811605.00442.00

19821339.00457.00

19831343.00448.00

19841412.00477.00

19851325.00468.00

19861390.00494.00

19871343.00512.00

19881342.00537.00

19891409.00571.00

19901462.00653.00

19911592.00692.00

19921504.00745.00

19931511.00786.00

19941510.00807.00

19951503.00879.00

19961547.00923.00

19971520.001026.00

19981518.00981.00

19991472.001024.00

20001428.001156.00

20011340.001138.00

20021249.001184.00

20031176.001222.00

20041130.001299.00

20051096.001285.00

20061018.001247.00

2007972.001299.00

20081006.001294.00

2009994.001334.00

20101003.001449.00

2011952.001572.00

2012918.001579.00

2013882.001623.00

* January-JuneSources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.Trade account of oil

Chart1

3565-18401726

2827-13851442

2011-200110

1694-2035342

410-4238-3828

1349-8714-7365

316-8236-7920

169-9908-9739

2357-16684-14327

458-8876-8409

1872-14051-12179

2675-23357-20682

1490-24516-23026

-3381-24269-27650

-2283.2-11392-13675.2

Crude oil

Oil products

Total

Sheet1

Crude oilOil productsTotal

20003565-18401726

20012827-13851442

20022011-200110

20031694-2035342

2004410-4238-3828

20051349-8714-7365

2006316-8236-7920

2007169-9908-9739

20082357-16684-14327

2009458-8876-8409

20101872-14051-12179

20112675-23357-20682

20121490-24516-23026

2013-3381-24269-27650

2014*-2283.2-11392-13675.2

Lebih parah lagi, minyak mentah pun sudah defisit mulai tahun 2013* January-June.Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.(Oil trade account, US$ billions)

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014* Crude Oil Exports6,0905,7155,2285,6216,241 8,146 8,169 9,226 12,419 7,820 10,40313,82912,29310,2054,629.4 Imports-2,525-2,888-3,217 -3,928 -5,831-6,797-7,853-9,057-10,062-7,362 -8,531-11,154-10,803-13,586-6,912.6 (X - M)3,5652,8272,0111,6944101,3493161692,357 4581,8722,6751,490-3,381-2,283.2Oil Products Exports1,6521,1891,308 1,5481,6541,932 2,8442,879 3,547 2,262 3,9674,7774,1634,2991,938.6 Imports-3,491-2,574-3,309-3,583 -5,892-10,646-11,080 -12,787-20,231-11,129 -18,018-28,134-28,679-28,568-13,330.6 (X - M)-1,840-1,385-2,001 -2,035 -4,238 -8,714 -8,236 -9,908 -16,684 -8,876 -14,051-23,357-24,516-24,269-11,392Total Exports7,7426,9046,535 7,169 7,89610,07811,013 12,105 15,966 10,08214,37018,60616,45614,5046,568.0 Imports-6,016--5,462-6,526 -7,510-11,724-17,443-18,933 -21,844-30,293 -18,491 -26,549-39,288-39,482-42,154-20,243.2 (X - M)1,7261,44210342-3,828-7,365 -7,920-9,739-14,327-8,409-12,179 -20,682-23,026-27,650-13,675.2

Trade deficit: oil and gas* January-JuneSource: BPS-Statistic Indonesia.US$ billions

Chart1

1063106300

-34277657423

-382886804852

-7365107203355

-7920120394119

-97399895156

-1432712900-1427

-8409844738

-1212012843723

-2068221459777

-2303117439-5592

-2765015016.2-12633.8

-13675.27568.3-6106.9

Oil & oil products

Gas

Oil & gas

Sheet1

2002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014*

Oil & oil products10-342-3828-7365-7920-9739-14327-8409-12120-20682-23031-27650.0-13,675.20

Gas6310776586801072012039989512900844712843214591743915016.27,568.30

Oil & gas63007423485233554119156-142738723777-5592-12633.8-6,106.90

Jangan lagi berharap harga minyak murahCrude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) October 2014Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.5:14 p.m EDT $93.45 =

Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2013.Selain menekan rupiah, juga menekan APBN, lalu menyebar ke berbagai arahSubsidiBBMIDR = Rp 11,900/US$Auto growth = 5%Oil subsidy = Rp 4,800/ltrICP = US$105/barrel

Total subsidy = Rp 291 Tn(16.5% penerimaan negara atau 14,4% pengel. negara)

Subsidi BBM, defisit APBNSubsidi BBM telah merongrong APBN. Dalam 11 tahun terakhir, hampir selalu (10 tahun) subsidi BBM lebih besar dari nilai defisit APBN. Hanya tahun 2009 saja subsidi BBM lebih kecil dari defisit APBN.Defisit APBN ditutup dengan utang, yakni menerbitkan Surat Utang Negara (SUN).Berarti, secara tak langsung, subsidi BBM dibiayai oleh utang pemerintah.

Budget deficit and primary balancePrimary balance: central government revenues minus central government expenditure except for interest payments on the central government debt.* Prediction ** RAPBNSource: Ministry of Finance.

YearTotalRevenues (IDR trillion)TotalExpenditures(IDR trillion)Deficit(% of GDP))Primary balance (IDR trillion)200549551015 (0.5) 51 200663866729 (0.9) 50 2007 70875850 (1.3) 30 2008 9829864 (0.1) 84 2009 84993788 ( 1.6) 5 2010 9951,04247 (0.7) 42 2011 1,2111,29584 (1.1) 9 2012 1,3361,482146 (1.8) -46 2013 1,4301,639209 (2.3) -972014*1,5401,821281 (2.8)-1452015**1,7622,020258 (2.3)-104

Nilai tukar rupiah melemah sejak Septeber 2011 dan berlangsung paling lama dalam sejarahSource: Bank Indonesia(Rupiah per US$)24-26 Nov 2008 = 12,400Terkuat 2/8/11 = Rp 8.460

Getting to the root of the problem: balance of payments (US$ million)* First semester (January-June)Source: Bank Indonesia.

20102011201220132014*Q1-13Q2-13Q3-13Q4-13Q1-14 Q2-14 I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 5,144 1,685 -24,418-29,129-13,264-6,009-10,133-8,634 -4,345-4,151 -9,113 A. Goods, net (Trade account) 31,003 33,825 8,680 5,8332,876 1,602 -556 854,703 3,350 -474 1. Exports, f.o.b. 149,966 191,109 187,346 182,08988,132 44,945 45,244 43,824 48,07643,937 44,195 2. Imports, f.o.b. -118,963 -157,284 -178,667 -176,256-85,258-43,603-46,071-44,003-43,651 -40,588 -44,670 B. Services, net-9,791-9,803-10,564-12,072-5,153-2,633-3,552-2,781-3,106-2,231 -2,922 C. Primary Income, net -20,698-26,547-26,628-26,850-13,608 -6,054-7,027-6,808-6,961-6,354 -7,254 D. Secondary Income, net 4,6304,211 4,094 3,9592,6231,0761,0038621,0191,085 1,538II. CAPITAL ACCOUNT503351212175811III. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 26,47613,60324,85821,94222,158-6538,6204,9878,9877,646 14,512 1. Direct investment 11,10611,52813,71613,6698,2913,6333,6575,8515273,4674,824 2. Portfolio investment13,2023,8069,2069,53116,8292,7603,3891,5921,7909,1257,704 3. Financial derivatives-946913-334-86-10120-235-19-14054 4. Other investment2,262-1,8011,922-924-2,875-6,9451,553 -2,2216,689-4,8051,930IV. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS-1,327-3,465-275-158-2,53345-9711,006-238-1,430-1,103V. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS-30,343-11,857-2157,325-6,3636,6152,4772,645-4,412-2,066-4,297

Transaksi perdagangan (ekspor-impor)minyak dan non-migas jadi biang keladi* In parentheses is percent of GDP. Source: Bank IndonesiaAkun lancar (current account) dan komponennya, miliar US$

Current Non-oil OilGasServicesIncomeCurrentAccount*and gastransfer20080.1 (0.0%)15.1-8.416.1-13-15.25.4200910.6 (2.0%)25.6-4.09.4-9.7-15.14.620105.1 (0.7%)27.8-8.711.9-9.8-20.84.620111.7 (0.2%)34.5-17.516.9-10.6-26.74.2 Q12.9 (1.5)8.9-3.23.6-1.8-5.51.0 Q20.3 (0.1)10.6-5.84.4-3.1-6.81.0 Q30.8 (0.3)9.3-4.34.7-2.6-7.41.0 Q4-2.3 (-1.1)6.6-4.24.2-3.1-71.22012-24.4 (-2.8%)13.9-20.415.2-10.3-26.84.1 Q1-3.2 (-1.5%)4.7-5.34.4-2.0-6.01.0 Q2-8.1 (-3.7%)2.0-5.34.2-2.8-7.10.9 Q3-5.3 (-2.4%)4.0-4.23.4-2.4-7.00.9 Q4-7.8 (-3.6%)3.2-5.63.2-3.2-6.71.32013-29.1 (-3.3%)15.5-22.512.8-12.1-27.04.0 Q1-6.0 (-2.7%)4.4-6.43.5-2.6-6.11.1 Q2-10.1 (-4.5%)1.5-5.13.0-3.5-7.11.0 Q3-8.6 (-3.9%)2.7-5.73.0-2.8-6.80.9 Q4 -4.3 (-2.1%) 6.8-5.43.2-3.1-7.01.02014-13.3 (3.2%)8.8-12.26.3-5.1-13.62.6 Q1-4.2 (-2.0%)6.1-6.13.3-2.2-6.41.1 Q2 -9.1 (-4.3%)2.7-6.13.0-2.9-7.21.5

Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.Trade account: dalam 25 bulan terakhir, 15 bulan alami defisit; nonmigas 7 bulan

Chart1

16974082105

15381301668

1885-831802

1118-318799

22463932639

1058-488570

88-226-139

1768-2131555

2445832528

18224582280

2756-1312626

30676163683

2404-3572048

2598682665

16951851880

1992-3261666

30364253462

29683463315

120831211

32892833572

19204542374

1641-2161424

1769731842

764-162602

8921231016

966-137829

1449-523926

-205-560-765

-490283-207

-832-454-1286

-424160-264

762-529233

1222-672550

-707-1177-1884

744-1362-618

550-739-188

1238-1312-75

777-1075-298

1112-975138

-525-1177-1703

-18-509-527

-147-731-877

-474-1855-2329

1023-95272

498-1301-803

783-75924

1961-1172789

2328-8161512

605-1049-444

1571-728843

2022-1353669

-902-1061-1962

1400.9-133169.9

300-600-300

Non-oil and gas

Oil and gas

Total

Sheet1

Non-oil and gasOil and gasTotal

Jan'101,6974082,105

Feb1,5381301,668

Mar1,885-831,802

Apr1,118-318799

May2,2463932,639

Jun1,058-488570

Jul88-226-139

Aug1,768-2131,555

Sep2,445832,528

Oct1,8224582,280

Nov2,756-1312,626

Dec3,0676163,683

Jan'112,404-3572,048

Feb2,598682,665

Mar1,6951851,880

Apr1,992-3261,666

May3,0364253,462

Jun2,9683463,315

Jul1,20831,211

Aug3,2892833,572

Sep1,9204542,374

Oct1,641-2161,424

Nov1,769731,842

Dec764-162602

Jan'128921231,016

Feb966-137829

Mar1,449-523926

Apr-205-560-765

May-490283-207

Jun-832-454-1,286

Jul-424160-264

Aug762-529233

Sep1,222-672550

Oct-707-1,177-1,884

Nov744-1,362-618

Dec550-739-188

Jan'131,238-1,312-75

Feb777-1,075-298

Mar1,112-975138

Apr-525-1,177-1,703

May-18-509-527

Jun-147-731-877

Jul-474-1,855-2,329

Aug1,023-95272

Sep498-1,301-803

Oct783-75924

Nov1,961-1,172789

Dec2,328-8161,512

Jan'14605-1,049-444

Feb1,571-728843

Mar2,022-1,353669

Apr-902-1,061-1,962

May1,401-1,33170

Jun300-600-300

Akhirnya jebol: transaksi perdagangan defisit sejak 2012Billion US$Growth (yoy)Description* January-JuneSource: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

2011201220132014*2011201220132014*Total export203.5190.0182.688.829.0-6.6-3.9-2.5 Non-oil and gas162.0153.1149.973.124.9-5.5-2.0-2.1 Oil and gas41.537.032.615.748.3-10.9-11.8-3.9Total import177.4191.7186.690.030.78.0-2.6-1.4 Non-oil and gas136.7149.1141.468.226.29.0-5.2-5.7 Oil and gas40.742.645.321.848.44.66.4-1.4Surplus (Deficit)26.1(-1.6)(-4.1)-1.2 Non-oil and gas25.34.08.64.9 Oil and gas0.8(-5.6)(-12.6)-6.1

Oleh karena itu, harus ada upaya nyata:Meningkatkan produksi dalam jangka pendek cost recovery naik.Mempercepat eksplorasi untuk menemukan sumur baru agar proven reserves naikJangka menengah panjang: meningkatkan proven reserves setidaknya setara dengan tingkat kenaikan konsumsi.Dan/atau diversifikasi energi: gas untuk transportasi publik, biofuel untuk kendaraan pribadi dan pembangkit listrik.

Without subsidy, oil trade deficit is still highScenario I: ICP = US$106.5/barrel; IDR = Rp 11,600/US$; Auto growth = 5%Scenario II: ICP = US$110.0/barrel; IDR = Rp 12.000/US$; Auto growth = 7%

Subsidy (Rp/liter)Scenario I (Rp trillion)Scenario II (Rp trillion)4,80024.825.34,60024.324.94,00023.423.93,00020.521.02,00018.218.71,00015.816.3013.413.9

Kapan sebaiknya harga BBM bersubsidi naik?Sebaiknya sekali di era pemerintahan SBY pada bulan September, setidaknya Rp 1.800.Sekali lagi pada Februari 2015.Lalu besarnya subsidi ditetapkan (fixed). Jika melewati harga naik otomatis.

Chart2

0.0105694343

0.0031418502

0.0033669509

0.0003842718

0.0027047749

0.0071740082

0.0103974311

0.0060620611

0.0042966391

0.0118261468

0.0039818978

0.0053982459

Selected

Seasonal Inflation Pattern in the Last 10 years

AnalysisSITC

78

Mar-1475

3

29Mar-14Mar-14Mar-14ExportImporSurplus

ExportImporTB

0DatesExportSITC!datesImportSITC!datesSurplusSITC!datesLastMoMYoYCumYoYLastMoMYoYCumYoYLastMoMYoYCumYoY

1Food and Live AnimalsExportSITC!DJPFDUMImportSITC!DJPFAJCSurplusSITC!series71996.22.3%9%2,897.1211.7%1,368.21.4%0%3,844.8613.4%(372.0)-1.0%-19%(947.74)18.9%

2Live Animal for FoodExportSITC!DJPFCEJImportSITC!DJPFAJWSurplusSITC!series726.14.9%-7%17.57-6.1%66.728.7%51%173.61152.8%(60.6)31.7%61%(156.03)212.3%

3Meat and Meat PreparationsExportSITC!DJPFCEKImportSITC!DJPFAJXSurplusSITC!series732.72.7%-33%8.28-7.6%47.188.8%111%134.19125.6%(44.3)99.2%143%(125.91)149.2%

4Dairy Product and EggsExportSITC!DJPFCELImportSITC!DJPFAJYSurplusSITC!series745.8-25.6%-28%23.744.7%128.7-19.0%10%424.5733.3%(122.9)-18.6%13%(400.83)35.5%

5Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs and PreparationsExportSITC!DJPFCEMImportSITC!DJPFAJZSurplusSITC!series75336.1-0.5%-1%1,011.273.0%18.4-25.0%24%59.802.7%317.71.4%-3%951.473.0%

6Cereals and Cereal PreparationsExportSITC!DJPFCENImportSITC!DJPFAKASurplusSITC!series7639.6-2.5%33%112.2127.9%361.05.6%-6%957.74-3.3%(321.3)6.7%-10%(845.53)-6.3%

7Fruits and VegetablesExportSITC!DJPFCEOImportSITC!DJPFAKBSurplusSITC!series7789.56.0%42%248.5953.3%129.5-24.9%-30%470.4121.7%(39.9)-54.6%-67%(221.82)-1.2%

8Sugar, Sugar Preparations, and HoneyExportSITC!DJPFCEPImportSITC!DJPFAKCSurplusSITC!series7818.6-28.3%4%60.5822.4%148.93.5%-8%479.497.3%(130.3)10.5%-10%(418.91)5.4%

9Coffee, Tea, Cocoa, and SpicesExportSITC!DJPFCEQImportSITC!DJPFAKDSurplusSITC!series79277.410.8%8%771.452.2%53.0-18.6%2%159.1917.8%224.421.2%9%612.25-1.2%

10Feeding Stuff for AnimalsExportSITC!DJPFCERImportSITC!DJPFAKESurplusSITC!series8066.9-12.3%5%201.3317.9%337.821.2%19%761.5013.9%(270.9)33.7%23%(560.17)12.6%

11Miscellaneous Food PreparationsExportSITC!DJPFCESImportSITC!DJPFAKFSurplusSITC!series81153.48.2%29%442.1231.3%77.3-11.3%-23%224.37-13.5%76.139.3%306%217.75181.7%

12Beverages and TobaccoExportSITC!DJPFDUNImportSITC!DJPFAJDSurplusSITC!series82110.110.3%14%296.5311.3%63.9-7.1%7%175.264.9%46.248.7%26%121.2722.3%

13BeveragesExportSITC!DJPFCETImportSITC!DJPFAKGSurplusSITC!series837.931.9%-29%19.41-14.3%13.346.7%15%31.1314.7%(5.4)75.4%1164%(11.72)160.2%

14Tobacco and Tobacco ManufacturedExportSITC!DJPFCEUImportSITC!DJPFAKHSurplusSITC!series84102.28.9%20%277.1213.7%50.6-15.3%5%144.133.0%51.651.2%40%132.9928.3%Indonesia Trade Balance based on SITC Classification as of Mar-14

15Crude Materials, InedibleExportSITC!DJPFDUOImportSITC!DJPFAJESurplusSITC!series85934.5-6.3%-44%2,922.98-39.9%805.1-17.2%-8%2,555.951.6%129.4431.8%-84%367.03-84.4%SurplusDeficit

16Hides, Skins and FurskinsExportSITC!DJPLAMFImportSITC!DJPFAKISurplusSITC!series860.0-89.5%0%0.000.0%0.4-1.5%-26%1.10-6.8%(0.4)-1.2%0%(1.10)0.0%1Coal, Coke, and Briquettes5.7Machinery & Transportation Equipments-7.79

17Oil Seeds, Nuts, and KernelsExportSITC!DJPFCEVImportSITC!DJPFAKJSurplusSITC!series878.379.5%306%21.83316.9%176.0-16.1%22%515.2619.5%(167.6)-18.3%18%(493.43)15.8%2Animal & Vegetable Oils/fats5.4Petroleum and Petroleum Products-7.31

18Crude RubberExportSITC!DJPFCEWImportSITC!DJPFAKKSurplusSITC!series88410.8-12.8%-35%1,351.73-31.2%56.5-23.6%-21%194.88-13.4%354.3-10.8%-37%1,156.85-33.6%3Fixed Vegetable Oils/fats4.8Chemicals-3.00

19Wood, Lumber, and CorkExportSITC!DJPFCEXImportSITC!DJPFAKLSurplusSITC!series8988.8-10.9%22%270.7427.6%11.6-3.5%10%33.3312.8%77.1-11.9%24%237.4130.0%4Gas; Natural and Manufactured3.6General Industrial Machinery and Equipments-1.99

20Pulp and Waste PaperExportSITC!DJPFCEYImportSITC!DJPFAKMSurplusSITC!series90138.2-4.2%-10%424.58-2.1%136.0-21.1%-18%448.57-4.0%2.1-107.5%-117%(23.99)-28.2%5Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles3.2Iron and Steel-1.74

21Textile Fibres and Their WasteExportSITC!DJPFCEZImportSITC!DJPFAKNSurplusSITC!series9151.12.1%-2%152.42-8.0%201.6-18.7%3%639.016.5%(150.5)-24.0%4%(486.59)12.1%6Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Etc2.0Machinery Specialized for Particular Industry-1.44

22Crude Fertilizers and Crude MineralsExportSITC!DJPFCFAImportSITC!DJPFAKOSurplusSITC!series9213.343.5%201%33.709.8%97.811.8%16%247.997.3%(84.5)8.1%5%(214.29)6.9%7Clothing1.7Plastics In Primary Forms-1.12

23Metalliferous Ores and Metal ScrapsExportSITC!DJPFCFBImportSITC!DJPFAKPSurplusSITC!series93187.93.9%-74%557.01-71.6%101.3-30.4%-45%407.35-14.0%86.6144.1%-84%149.66-89.9%8Crude Rubber1.2Telecommunication and Reproducers Apparatus-0.95

24Crude Animals and Vegetable MaterialsExportSITC!DJPFCFCImportSITC!DJPFAKQSurplusSITC!series9436.2-3.1%14%110.9623.2%23.93.2%7%68.4521.1%12.4-13.4%32%42.5226.6%9Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs and Preparations1.0Food and Live Animals-0.95

25Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, EtcExportSITC!DJPFDUPImportSITC!DJPFAJFSurplusSITC!series954,256.2-5.7%-19%13,479.26-10.9%3,744.80.7%9%11,501.634.4%511.4-35.9%-71%1,977.63-51.9%10Footwear0.9Cereals and Cereal Preparations-0.85

26Coal, Coke, and BriquettesExportSITC!DJPFCFDImportSITC!DJPFAKRSurplusSITC!series961,864.61.1%-19%5,752.40-14.6%24.177.8%352%73.46321.1%1,840.50.5%-20%5,678.94-15.5%11Wood and Cork Manufactured0.7Manufactured Goods-0.81

27Petroleum and Petroleum ProductsExportSITC!DJPFCFEImportSITC!DJPFAKSSurplusSITC!series971,088.10.7%-25%3,406.04-11.8%3,488.01.6%8%10,714.115.1%(2,399.9)2.1%35%(7,308.07)15.4%12Paper, Paperboard, and Manufactured Thereof0.7Power Generating Machine and Equipments-0.78

28Gas; Natural and ManufacturedExportSITC!DJPFCFFImportSITC!DJPFAKTSurplusSITC!series981,303.5-18.0%-13%4,320.81-4.6%232.7-14.3%6%713.98-10.7%1,070.7-18.8%-16%3,606.83-3.3%Source: CEICData, BahanaTCW

29Animal & Vegetable Oils/fatsExportSITC!DJPFDUQImportSITC!DJPFAJGSurplusSITC!series992,072.973.3%16%5,401.5819.1%15.70.0%-4%45.61-35.4%2,057.274.3%16%5,355.9720.0%

30Animal Oils and FatsExportSITC!DJPFCFGImportSITC!DJPFAKVSurplusSITC!series1000.1-80.0%-59%0.66-5.5%1.8-18.8%21%5.4022.0%(1.7)-7.0%32%(4.75)27.1%

31Fixed Vegetable Oils/fatsExportSITC!DJPFCFHImportSITC!DJPFAKWSurplusSITC!series1011,845.079.0%16%4,810.7420.6%7.113.3%-10%19.68-40.0%1,837.879.4%17%4,791.0521.1%

32Animal Vegetable Oils/fatsExportSITC!DJPFCFIImportSITC!DJPFAKXSurplusSITC!series102227.838.0%11%590.188.1%6.7-5.8%-4%20.52-38.4%221.140.0%12%569.6611.1%

33ChemicalsExportSITC!DJPFDURImportSITC!DJPFAJHSurplusSITC!series103992.23.2%1%2,954.257.3%1,904.6-13.0%-13%5,958.44-5.8%(912.5)-25.7%-24%(3,004.19)-15.9%

34Organic ChemicalsExportSITC!DJPFCFJImportSITC!DJPFAKYSurplusSITC!series104366.2-3.8%46%1,094.0847.2%511.7-17.0%-16%1,675.39-8.2%(145.4)-38.2%-60%(581.31)-46.3%

35Inorganic ChemicalsExportSITC!DJPFCFKImportSITC!DJPFAKZSurplusSITC!series10553.028.3%-27%131.30-17.1%134.4-16.7%-20%427.39-16.4%(81.4)-32.2%-15%(296.09)-16.0%

36Dyeing,tanning, and Colouring MaterialsExportSITC!DJPFCFLImportSITC!DJPFALASurplusSITC!series10628.8-5.7%-6%91.39-1.8%116.4-10.9%-10%353.52-2.6%(87.6)-12.4%-11%(262.13)-2.9%

37Medical and Pharmaceutical ProductsExportSITC!DJPFCFMImportSITC!DJPFALBSurplusSITC!series10746.635.2%14%125.2010.2%80.7-9.0%-12%242.70-5.4%(34.1)-37.1%-33%(117.50)-17.8%

38Essential Oils and Perfumery MaterialsExportSITC!DJPFCFNImportSITC!DJPFALCSurplusSITC!series108127.0-8.1%-12%399.90-2.8%119.6-13.6%-9%373.77-1.1%7.4-3827.0%-39%26.13-22.3%

39Manufactured FertilizersExportSITC!DJPFCFOImportSITC!DJPFALDSurplusSITC!series10946.61.2%-60%144.88-34.7%144.1-8.6%-19%434.97-5.4%(97.5)-12.6%60%(290.09)22.1%

40Plastics In Primary FormsExportSITC!DJPFCFPImportSITC!DJPFALESurplusSITC!series110105.2-7.3%14%324.7119.2%456.0-14.5%-10%1,447.97-2.5%(350.8)-16.4%-15%(1,123.26)-7.4%

41Plastics In Non-primary FormsExportSITC!DJPFCFQImportSITC!DJPFALFSurplusSITC!series11168.8-12.7%-6%220.954.1%91.2-11.6%-17%279.24-3.5%(22.4)-8.0%-39%(58.30)-24.6%

42Chemical Materials and Its Products, NesExportSITC!DJPFCFRImportSITC!DJPFALGSurplusSITC!series112149.853.3%-7%421.85-19.8%250.6-3.6%-5%723.50-4.2%(100.7)-37.9%-2%(301.64)31.7%

43Manufactured GoodsExportSITC!DJPFDUSImportSITC!DJPFAJISurplusSITC!series1132,110.65.2%4%5,905.952.5%2,220.2-11.8%-21%6,719.47-14.9%(109.5)-78.6%-86%(813.51)-61.9%

44Leather, Leather Med, NesExportSITC!DJPFCFSImportSITC!DJPFALHSurplusSITC!series11412.9-1.0%-1%36.91-4.1%41.7-18.8%2%133.9316.6%(28.8)-24.9%4%(97.02)26.9%

45Rubber Manufactured, NesExportSITC!DJPFCFTImportSITC!DJPFALISurplusSITC!series115184.4-1.3%-6%552.04-2.5%101.5-13.4%-28%317.01-15.2%82.919.2%51%235.0322.1%

46Wood and Cork ManufacturedExportSITC!DJPFCFUImportSITC!DJPFALJSurplusSITC!series116266.30.4%6%794.258.8%26.514.2%-6%68.14-7.8%239.8-0.9%7%726.1110.6%

47Paper, Paperboard, and Manufactured ThereofExportSITC!DJPFCFVImportSITC!DJPFALKSurplusSITC!series117325.51.0%-3%957.55-1.8%101.3-7.8%-9%300.00-3.4%224.15.6%-1%657.55-1.0%

48Textile Yarns, Fabrics, and Their ProductsExportSITC!DJPFCFWImportSITC!DJPFALLSurplusSITC!series118404.4-1.3%-7%1,209.32-1.8%522.5-11.6%-9%1,552.04-0.7%(118.0)-34.9%-15%(342.72)3.6%

49Non Metalic Minerals ManufacturedExportSITC!DJPFCFXImportSITC!DJPFALMSurplusSITC!series11978.6-0.4%-5%236.17-1.9%107.7-14.4%6%329.9511.0%(29.1)-38.0%59%(93.78)66.4%

50Iron and SteelExportSITC!DJPFCFYImportSITC!DJPFALNSurplusSITC!series120235.96.8%90%568.6051.5%765.5-11.3%-36%2,312.47-31.1%(529.6)-17.5%-50%(1,743.87)-41.5%

51Non Ferrous MetalsExportSITC!DJPFCFZImportSITC!DJPFALOSurplusSITC!series121470.556.1%2%1,060.55-13.6%266.2-10.9%-12%815.13-7.9%204.37322.7%28%245.42-28.5%

52Manufactured Of Metal, NesExportSITC!DJPFCGAImportSITC!DJPFALPSurplusSITC!series122132.1-36.7%9%490.5730.4%287.2-15.0%-9%890.81-4.0%(155.1)20.3%-21%(400.24)-27.5%

53Machinery & Transportation EquipmentsExportSITC!DJPFDUTImportSITC!DJPFAJJSurplusSITC!series1231,645.6-10.0%-7%5,309.32-1.3%4,140.3-13.7%-21%13,098.13-12.1%(2,494.7)-16.1%-27%(7,788.82)-18.2%

54Power Generating Machine and EquipmentsExportSITC!DJPFCGBImportSITC!DJPFALQSurplusSITC!series12478.8-9.8%-39%275.64-28.1%346.90.1%-7%1,053.60-11.6%(268.1)3.4%10%(777.96)-3.8%

55Machinery Specialized for Particular IndustryExportSITC!DJPFCGCImportSITC!DJPFALRSurplusSITC!series125178.4-3.4%-2%521.43-4.1%682.0-5.4%2%1,962.694.7%(503.6)-6.1%3%(1,441.26)8.3%

56Metalworking MachineryExportSITC!DJPFCGDImportSITC!DJPFALSSurplusSITC!series1267.8340.0%116%11.48-32.7%111.3-17.6%-32%372.20-23.3%(103.6)-22.3%-36%(360.72)-22.9%

57General Industrial Machinery and EquipmentsExportSITC!DJPFCGEImportSITC!DJPFALTSurplusSITC!series127163.01.5%19%492.4828.7%774.7-16.1%-17%2,486.20-7.9%(611.7)-19.9%-23%(1,993.72)-13.9%

58Office Machinery and Automatic Data ProcessingExportSITC!DJPFCGFImportSITC!DJPFALUSurplusSITC!series12879.90.1%-18%235.84-2.0%305.0-19.4%-13%1,003.99-8.8%(225.1)-24.7%-11%(768.16)-10.7%

59Telecommunication and Reproducers ApparatusExportSITC!DJPFCGGImportSITC!DJPFALVSurplusSITC!series129280.1-2.5%-16%845.02-16.4%562.1-20.0%-3%1,799.6412.0%(282.0)-32.1%15%(954.62)60.3%

60Electrical Machinery and ApparatusExportSITC!DJPFCGHImportSITC!DJPFALWSurplusSITC!series130486.1-6.5%-3%1,549.692.8%676.9-13.3%-20%2,154.32-11.5%(190.8)-26.9%-45%(604.62)-34.7%

61Road VehiclesExportSITC!DJPFCGIImportSITC!DJPFALXSurplusSITC!series131344.5-16.1%-6%1,222.298.7%579.4-12.3%-27%1,892.50-24.6%(234.9)-6.0%-46%(670.22)-51.6%

62Other Transportation EquipmentsExportSITC!DJPFCGJImportSITC!DJPFALYSurplusSITC!series13227.1-71.7%38%155.45-6.1%102.0-32.2%-79%372.98-62.7%(74.9)37.1%-84%(217.53)-73.9%

63Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesExportSITC!DJPFDUUImportSITC!DJPFAJKSurplusSITC!series1331,612.9-0.5%3%4,850.7112.1%505.8-18.6%-26%1,643.70-4.4%1,107.110.8%26%3,207.0123.1%

64Sanitary, Plumbing, and FittingsExportSITC!DJPFCGKImportSITC!DJPFALZSurplusSITC!series1348.0-4.0%12%25.466.5%27.1-3.6%1%76.8115.9%(19.1)-3.4%-3%(51.36)21.3%

65FurnitureExportSITC!DJPFCGLImportSITC!DJPFAMASurplusSITC!series135147.6-8.6%-6%475.250.8%26.3-24.1%-34%87.15-5.3%121.2-4.3%4%388.102.3%

66Traveling GoodsExportSITC!DJPFCGMImportSITC!DJPFAMBSurplusSITC!series13621.67.2%-7%62.102.8%15.81.6%-20%41.80-14.1%5.726.3%64%20.3072.7%

67ClothingExportSITC!DJPFCGNImportSITC!DJPFAMCSurplusSITC!series137628.4-4.1%-7%1,916.58-0.7%60.8-3.5%-8%176.537.8%567.5-4.2%-7%1,740.05-1.5%

68FootwearExportSITC!DJPFCGOImportSITC!DJPFAMDSurplusSITC!series138389.88.7%-1%1,025.542.8%38.0-13.9%-21%115.360.6%351.911.8%2%910.183.1%

69Professional, Scientific, and Contractor InstrumentsExportSITC!DJPFCGPImportSITC!DJPFAMESurplusSITC!series13928.3-2.3%-4%103.5214.6%109.9-27.8%-30%386.18-15.2%(81.6)-33.7%-36%(282.66)-22.6%

70Photographic Apparatus, Equipments and OpticsExportSITC!DJPFCGQImportSITC!DJPFAMFSurplusSITC!series14019.86.7%9%55.423.7%27.2-19.9%-18%89.92-12.3%(7.4)-52.1%-51%(34.50)-29.7%

71Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesExportSITC!DJPFCGRImportSITC!DJPFAMGSurplusSITC!series141369.40.0%46%1,186.8370.1%200.6-19.7%-32%669.94-1.0%168.841.4%-523%516.892329.3%

Budi HikmatSheet Trade1

AnalysisAuto

Last x years

7Jul-14Cummulative3

0Auto1!dates180Automobile SalesUnitMoMYoYUnitYoYLast Year7

1Auto1!DHAA180Car Total91,393-17.3%-18.5%733,7162.7%3,467,29872.3%1,229,916.0010%

2Auto1!DHAD180Car: Astra46,962-18.2%-18.2%381,4420.7%1,847,10264.4%654,573.008%

3Auto1!DHALAA103Car: Astra: Daihatsu16,1411.4%4.3%111,4647.3%523,16369.7%185,942.0014%

4Auto1!DHALAB103Car: Astra: Isuzu2,016-6.7%-19.7%16,506-11.9%93,89743.5%31,527.00-5%

5Auto1!DHALAC103Car: Astra: UD Trucks20-85.7%-84.8%680-39.5%7,11212.5%1,965.00-33%

6Auto1!DHALAD103Car: Astra: Toyota28,780-26.6%-26.7%252,756-0.7%1,222,20464.4%434,869.007%

7Auto1!DHALAE103Car: Astra: Peugeot50.0%-87.5%36-82.5%726163.0%270.00-19%

8Auto1!DHAG180Car: Non Astra44,431-16.4%-18.8%352,2744.9%1,620,19682.4%575,343.0013%

9Auto1!DHALBB103Car: Non Astra: Mitsubishi9,443-17.2%-32.6%86,056-5.9%445,82156.7%157,352.006%

10Auto1!DHALBC103Car: Non Astra: Suzuki12,001-4.1%-28.7%93,1931.0%425,342117.6%164,004.0030%

11Auto1!DHALBE37Car: Non Astra: Nissan2,51912.9%-57.6%22,306-40.2%179,102548.8%61,119.00-9%

12Auto1!DHALBA103Car: Non Astra: Honda12,984-24.6%52.7%95,65865.4%275,08084.7%91,493.0032%

13Auto1!DHALBD103Car: Non Astra: Others7,484-23.5%-20.8%55,061-3.3%294,85127.3%101,375.002%

14Auto1!DHBB180Motorcycle Total534,490-28.8%-23.9%4,736,7862.4%22,763,77810.5%7,743,879.0010%

15Auto1!DHBBA180Astra327,364-30.6%-21.2%2,950,5396.1%13,547,72738.7%4,696,999.0015%

16Auto1!DHBBB180Non Astra207,126-25.8%-27.8%1,786,247-3.3%9,216,051-14.9%3,046,880.002%

17Auto1!DHBBBA103Non Astra: Yamaha172,377-26.7%-24.9%1,502,344-0.3%7,596,277-15.4%2,492,596.003%

18Auto1!DHBBBB103Non Astra: Suzuki20,921-23.3%-50.3%187,377-25.3%1,186,828-25.0%393,803.00-6%

19Auto1!DHBBBC103Non Astra: Kawasaki12,709-19.4%-13.8%91,0128.7%404,92184.0%151,703.0023%

20Auto1!DHBBBE49Non Astra: TVS1,1192.9%78.2%5,51420.4%27,983-3.8%8,778.00-6%

21Auto1!DHBBBD75Non Astra: Others0.00.0%0.0%0.00.0%42-99.7%

526,231,07686.8%8,973,795.00

0Auto2!dates180Jun-14

1Auto2!DHCA180GAI110,56013.8%6.0%538,7287%3,464,946.0075.0%

2Auto2!DHCAF180GAI: Passenger: Seden1,819-20.5%-45.8%11,057-21%93,362.009.9%

3Auto2!DHCAHA180GAI: Passenger: Sedan: Below 1500 cc8990.3%-53.6%5,429-16%51,191.008.4%

4Auto2!DHCAHB180GAI: Passenger: Sedan: 1500 to 3000 cc912-34.0%-34.7%5,528-25%41,004.0012.7%

5Auto2!DHCAHC180GAI: Passenger: Sedan: Over 3000 cc8-27.3%-65.2%100-45%1,167.00-13.8%

6Auto2!DHCAHD180GAI: Passenger: Multi Purpose: Below 1500 cc52,96914.8%-8.0%252,765-9%1,759,280.0073.2%

7Auto2!DHCAHE180GAI: Passenger: Multi Purpose: 1500 to 2500 cc12,66917.1%2.6%56,528-15%429,300.0049.4%

8Auto2!DHCAHF172GAI: Passenger: Multi Purpose: 2500 to 3000 cc297262.2%58.0%743-48%8,402.009.8%

9Auto2!DHCAHG133GAI: Passenger: Multi Purpose: Over 3000cc369.1%157.1%307131%1,549.0011.0%

10Auto2!DHCAHI179GAI: Passenger: Sport Utilities: 1500 to 3000cc47529.8%-9.9%1,971-12%14,984.00104.4%

11Auto2!DHCAHJ180GAI: Passenger: Sport Utilities: Over 3000cc17465.7%46.2%98135%5,435.00138.8%

12Auto2!DHCAHQ3GAI: Passenger: Affordable Energy Saving Cars: 1200cc15,74428.5%0.0%71,3570%128,314.000.0%

13Auto2!DHCAHK180GAI: Commercial: Bus: 5 to 24 Ton245-21.5%-32.1%1,9825%12,240.0020.2%

14Auto2!DHCAHM180GAI: Commercial: Truck: Below 5 Ton15,3894.8%-8.9%80,6238%539,249.00101.9%

15Auto2!DHCAHN180GAI: Commercial: Truck: 5 to 24 Ton8,6708.8%-11.4%48,629-7%355,606.0058.6%

16Auto2!DHCAHO180GAI: Commercial: Truck: Over 24 Ton1,076-4.4%-46.5%6,687-18%58,047.0091.3%

17Auto2!DHCAHP144GAI: Commercial: Double Cabin: Below 5 Ton9962.4%-4.8%5,096-15%50,667.0023.9%

Input4Sinar

Performance The Last 10 YearsAcuan return SiNar

AnnualizedIHSGJangka Panjang15.2%Return IHSG dalam jangka panjang diprediksi sebagai annualized GDP nominal growth selama 10 tahun terakhir. Untuk jangka pendek menggunakan data 7 tahun terakhir plus 1 standard deviasi

0AntarAsset!dates121Jul-14AssetTotalAvgStdJangka pendek 201420.0%

1AntarAsset!series66120666.00JCI566.021.6%22.6%

2AntarAsset!series67121200.35Inflation Overall100.36.9%3.2%ObligasiJangka Panjang6.93%Berdasarkan rata-rata inflasi 10 tahun terakhir

CPI!series9151108.60Inflation Core8.65.9%1.2%

3AntarAsset!series68121264.15>>Food164.19.6%5.4%

4AntarAsset!series69121180.63>>Education80.65.9%2.9%

5AntarAsset!series70116159.24Deposit rate59.20.0%0.0%

Source: CEIC, BahanaTCW

Historical Annualized Average until Jun-14

0GNOM!dates86Jun-14357101520

GNOM!DALA862480807.00GDP Nominal Growth

Avg10.5%12.0%13.9%15.2%15.3%17.1%

Std4.7%4.6%6.1%5.7%7.1%8.8%

IHSG!DZEA1IHSGMin 1std5.8%7.4%7.8%9.5%8.2%8.3%

IHSG!Dates222Plus 1std15.2%16.6%20.0%20.9%22.3%26.0%

1IHSG!DZEA4878.582IHSGIHSG

2IHSG!DZEB2378.224AgricultureAvg8.7%19.1%14.9%21.7%16.3%

3IHSG!DZEC1474.662MiningStd15.1%16.8%24.2%22.5%23.9%

4IHSG!DZED406.664PropertyMin 1std-6.4%2.2%-9.3%-0.8%-7.6%

5IHSG!DZEE647.937FinancePlus 1std23.8%35.9%39.1%44.3%40.2%

6IHSG!DZEF901.942Trade

7IHSG!DZEG517.077Basic IndustryAvg0.81.61.11.41.11.212.65492.5536941315

8IHSG!DZEH1282.726MiscellaneousStd3.23.73.94.03.43.6

9IHSG!DZEI2007.881Consumer Goods

10IHSG!DZEJ1261.298Manufacture

11IHSG!DZEK1075.549InfrastructureForecast GDP Nominal

12IHSG!DZEL822.668LQ 45GDP growth5.3

Infation6

11.3

Avg

IHSG8.7%19.1%14.9%21.7%16.3%

Agriculture3.6%11.6%12.8%31.3%19.3%

Mining-23.0%-1.4%7.0%22.3%21.4%

Property27.3%24.7%14.3%27.0%18.3%

Finance10.3%21.8%18.9%23.2%18.8%

Trade19.6%30.8%16.3%22.3%15.7%

Basic Industry10.5%22.1%18.2%26.8%12.9%

Miscellaneous5.9%25.6%25.5%28.2%19.7%

Consumer Goods18.9%30.0%23.9%24.2%18.8%

Manufacture12.1%26.0%21.9%24.7%16.8%

Infrastructure11.8%12.5%7.6%17.1%17.3%

LQ 457.2%16.5%12.6%19.6%15.2%

Std

IHSG15.1%16.8%24.2%22.5%23.9%

Agriculture23.6%23.3%37.0%37.1%37.7%

Mining24.8%25.1%41.3%37.7%39.7%

Property30.9%28.0%31.1%31.1%34.1%

Finance20.6%20.8%26.8%25.8%28.4%

Trade18.8%20.8%27.6%25.0%27.6%

Basic Industry21.0%21.5%29.1%28.2%28.9%

Miscellaneous20.4%24.7%33.3%31.0%29.4%

Consumer Goods15.1%19.1%20.0%19.2%22.9%

Manufacture14.2%18.4%23.8%22.3%23.6%

Infrastructure13.7%15.5%21.8%21.9%27.7%

LQ 4516.3%17.9%26.3%24.4%26.7%

Risk Adjusted

IHSG0.581.130.620.970.68

Agriculture0.150.500.350.840.51

Mining-0.93-0.050.170.590.54

Property0.880.880.460.870.54

Finance0.501.050.710.900.66

Trade1.041.480.590.890.57

Basic Industry0.501.030.630.950.45

Miscellaneous0.291.040.770.910.67

Consumer Goods1.261.571.191.260.82

Manufacture0.851.410.921.110.71

Infrastructure0.870.810.350.780.62

LQ 450.440.920.480.800.57

388.443

399.22

398.004

450.861

494.776

505.499

507.9848

529.675

597.652

625.546

617.084

691.895

752.932

761.081

735.677

783.413

732.516

732.401

756.983

754.704

820.134

860.487

977.767

1000.233

1045.435

1073.828

1080.165

1029.613

1088.169

1122.376

1182.301

1050

1079.275

1066.224

1096.641

1162.635

1232.321

Budi Hikmat:

Budi Hikmat:

Budi Hikmat:

Budi Hikmat:

Input4Sinar

GDP Nominal Growth

IHSG

CInflasiQ

1.374721706

0.9611260084

2.0420165343

1.0065645915

AnalysisCPI

House Keeping

CPI7Pilih Bulan

Bulan TerakhirJun-14

Name0Inflation in Jul-2014Forecast

0CPI!dates151Jul-14MoMYoYYtdMoMYoYYtdYtdYoYNaveAvg10y

1CPI!series1151Overall0.93%4.53%2.94%0.43%6.70%1.99%Overall2.94%4.53%4.536.23

2CPI!series2151Food1.94%3.19%4.41%0.99%6.74%2.42%Core2.40%4.05%4.05

3CPI!series3151Processed Food1.00%6.67%3.76%0.32%7.25%2.73%Administered3.72%6.78%

4CPI!series4151Housing0.45%5.36%2.67%0.38%5.36%2.21%Volatile4.26%2.48%

5CPI!series5151Clothing0.85%7.02%2.24%0.30%6.02%1.37%

6CPI!series7151Health0.39%4.81%3.24%0.36%4.81%2.84%

7CPI!series8151Educ,Recr Sports0.45%3.41%1.44%0.08%3.66%0.98%

8CPI!series6151TranspComm0.88%0.67%2.09%0.19%9.38%1.20%

9CPI!series9151Core0.52%4.05%2.40%0.25%4.54%1.88%

10CPI!series10151Administered1.32%6.78%3.72%0.45%13.72%2.37%

11CPI!series11151Volatile2.00%2.48%4.26%1.06%6.57%2.22%

12CPI!series13151Cereal, Cassava & Related Products0.66%

13CPI!series14151Meat and Meat Products2.11%

14CPI!series15151Fresh Fish2.24%

15CPI!series16151Preserved Fish1.50%

16CPI!series17151Eggs, Milk and Related Products1.16%

17CPI!series18151Vegetables4.36%

18CPI!series19151Beans and Nuts0.42%

19CPI!series20151Fruits3.13%

20CPI!series21151Spices2.51%

21CPI!series22151Fats and Oils0.95%

22CPI!series23151Other food1.61%

23CPI!series24151Prepared Food1.09%

24CPI!series25151Non Alcohol Beverages0.61%

25CPI!series26151Tobacco and Alcohol Beverages1.09%

26CPI!series27151Cost for Housing0.17%

27CPI!series28151Fuel, Electricity and Water1.18%

28CPI!series29151Household Equipment0.49%

29CPI!series30151Household Operation0.36%

30CPI!series31151For Men0.78%

31CPI!series32151For Women0.71%

32CPI!series33151For Children0.63%

33CPI!series34151Personal Effects1.16%

34CPI!series35151Health Service and Medicines0.10%

35CPI!series36151Medicines0.32%

36CPI!series37151Beauty Treatment Service0.54%

37CPI!series38151Beauty Treatment and Cosmetic0.63%

38CPI!series39151Education0.59%

39CPI!series40151Courses and Training0.62%

40CPI!series41151Educational Equipment0.49%

41CPI!series42151Recreation0.18%

42CPI!series43151Sports0.19%

43CPI!series44151Transport1.36%

44CPI!series45151Communication and Delivery-0.03%

45CPI!series46151Transport Equipment and Support0.17%

46CPI!series47151Financial Services0.00%

Inflation Mover

1Vegetables4.36%

2Fruits3.13%

3Spices2.51%

Communication and Delivery-0.03%

Financial Services0.00%

Health Service and Medicines0.10%

QuarterlyQoQYoY

CPI_QCPI_Q!dates124Jun-140.57%6.70%

CPI_Q!series48124Mar-141.41%7.32%

Dec-130.80%8.08%

Seasonal PatternAllSelectedScenario

Selected83Mar2.94%1.50%1.371.61

326June1.92%1.05%0.961.17

9Sep2.28%2.23%2.042.40

12Dec2.12%1.10%1.011.18

9.59%6.00%5.49%5.50.07

CPI_longestCPI_longest!dates372Monthly

CPI_longest!series1372Jul-14

Seasonal Inflation Pattern in the Last 10 years

AllSelectedLastQ

101Jan1.42%1.06%

1202Feb1.06%0.31%

3Mar0.38%0.34%1.7%

Annualized Average4Apr0.63%0.04%

35.45%5May0.65%0.27%

55.38%6Jun0.61%0.72%1.0%

75.89%7Jul1.08%1.04%

106.93%8Aug0.62%0.61%

Aug-839.10%9Sep0.53%0.43%2.1%

Last3y10Oct0.80%1.18%Source: CEIC, BahanaTCW

Last5y11Nov0.60%0.40%

Last7y12Dec0.70%0.54%2.1%

Last10y9.48%7.15%

Aug-836.97%

Wholesale Price IndexJul-14MoMYoYYdt

0WPI!dates1751.0%11.5%6.2%

2WPI!series580175

7

Budi Hikmat:

AnalysisCPI

Ytd

YoY

Inflation in Jul-2014

AnalysisTrade

Inflation Mover

ForecastDeficitOil

Selected

Seasonal Inflation Pattern in the Last 10 years

AnalysisIDXRealM1

Historical Inflation

AnalysisTBUSA

Housekeeping

478

0Trade1!dates78Jun-14US$ mnMoMYoYCumCumT-1YoY

1Trade1!DJAJAC78Trade Balance(305)-672.8%-65.2%(1,545.42)(2,969.48)-48.0%

2Trade1!DJAJAD78TB NOilGas299-78.4%-304.1%2,784.56422.47559.1%

3Trade1!DJAA78Exports15,4164.0%4.5%59,724.7160,677.65-1.6%

4Trade1!DJAG78Exports NOilGas12,6261.4%5.6%49,266.0649,570.79-0.6%

5Trade1!DJAGA78Exports OilGas2,79017.5%-0.4%10,458.6511,106.86-5.8%

6Trade1!DJAJAA78Imports15,7216.4%0.5%61,270.1363,647.12-3.7%

7Trade1!DJAJAAA78Imports NOilGas12,32711.4%1.8%46,481.5049,148.33-5.4%

8Trade1!DJAJAAB78Imports OilGas3,395-8.4%-3.9%14,788.6414,498.802.0%

9Trade1!series4978Deficit Oil1,885-21.5%-9.7%9,217.808,478.408.7%Untuk modeling deficit minyak

12

0ExportSelected!dates36Dec-13Indonesia Non-Oil-Gas Exports 12M2013

1ExportSelected!DJNZC36Agricultural Products436.51.8%3.0%5,763.34.0%CommodityValueYoY, %Share,%

2ExportSelected!DJMA36Rubber1-9.1%0.0%12.8-24.3%1Shrimps: Fresh and Frozen1,490.541.671.00

3ExportSelected!DJMB36Coffee65.86.5%-18.1%1,109.2-15.5%2Coffee1,109.2(15.52)0.74

4ExportSelected!DJMC36Shrimps: Fresh and Frozen133.8-4.4%32.7%1,490.541.7%3Fish986.8(9.02)0.66

5ExportSelected!DJMD36Tea9.8-11.7%-19.7%124.5-4.9%4Others Agricultural Products590.627.800.40

6ExportSelected!DJME36Spices33.911.9%8.0%543.4-12.3%5Spices543.4(12.34)0.36

7ExportSelected!DJMF36Tobacco9.626.3%-14.3%89.520.1%6Cocoa Beans367.3(2.26)0.25

8ExportSelected!DJMG36Cocoa Beans9.5-73.4%-72.6%367.3-2.3%1Others Industrial Products42,415.9(5.55)28.45

9ExportSelected!DJMI36Fish84.629.4%0.4%986.8-9.0%2Vegetable Oil: Palm Oil16,096.2(6.01)10.80

10ExportSelected!DJMJ36Seeds3.7146.7%76.2%52.340.2%3Electrical Apparatus Products9,525.348.606.39

11ExportSelected!DJMK36Pearl2.3187.5%2200.0%26.3-0.2%4Preparation Rubber Products8,922.1(12.81)5.99

12ExportSelected!DJML36Damar8.9-1.1%43.5%104.519.0%5Garments Products8,232.312.075.52

13ExportSelected!DJMN36Vegetables2.83.7%-15.2%64.8-22.0%6Processed Food Products5,663.411.003.80

14ExportSelected!DJMO36Fruits25.919.4%54.2%200.912.9%7Other Textiles Products4,276.1(18.38)2.87

15ExportSelected!DJMS36Others Agricultural Products44.911.7%14.5%590.627.8%8Paper and Paper Goods Products3,825.9(1.64)2.57

16ExportSelected!DJNZD36Industrial Products10063.53.9%12.0%114,022.2-1.1%9Chemicals Products3,677.71.222.47

17ExportSelected!DJNA36Plywood Products210.98.2%15.6%2,265.112.5%10Plywood Products2,265.112.551.52

18ExportSelected!DJNB36Sawnwood Products4.34.9%-2.3%48.5-5.8%Coal23,656.5(8.16)15.87

19ExportSelected!DJNC36Other Processed Wood Products116.5-3.0%16.5%1,355.010.2%Copper Ores and Concentrates2,620.12.441.76

20ExportSelected!DJND36Tin Products148.210.5%-30.4%1,868.9-16.7%Nickle Ores and Concentrates1,310.3(15.61)0.88

21ExportSelected!DJNE36Aluminum Products69.88.2%12.4%694.9-5.9%Bauxite1,166.082.990.78

22ExportSelected!DJNF36Matte Nickel Products72.9-6.7%4.6%910.1-18.1%Other Mining Products526.320.850.35

23ExportSelected!DJNG36Garments Products743-0.1%18.4%8,232.312.1%Souce: CEIC

24ExportSelected!DJNH36Other Textiles Products310.81.7%-30.4%4,276.1-18.4%5,622.73.8%

25ExportSelected!DJNI36Preparation Rubber Products663.4-3.1%-25.1%8,922.1-12.8%

26ExportSelected!DJNJ36Cattle Fodder Products58.1-26.3%4.9%770.715.8%Agricultural Products5,763.3

27ExportSelected!DJNK36Essential Oils Products50.42.0%4.3%575.27.7%Industrial Products114,022.2

28ExportSelected!DJNX36Vegetable Oil: Palm Oil1720.416.6%68.8%16,096.2-6.0%Total Mining Products Excluding Petroleum & Gas29,279.2

29ExportSelected!DJNM36Fatty Acids Products205.727.2%50.7%1,891.31.4%149,064.7

30ExportSelected!DJNN36Electrical Apparatus Products897.15.1%72.6%9,525.348.6%

31ExportSelected!DJNO36Processed Food Products507.14.3%17.7%5,663.411.0%

32ExportSelected!DJNP36Cement Products242.9%-16.7%54.9180.1%

33ExportSelected!DJNQ36Plaited Articles Products7.511.9%7.1%82.2-0.7%

34ExportSelected!DJNR36Chemicals Products361.59.5%23.6%3,677.71.2%

35ExportSelected!DJNS36Fertilizer Products534.1%3.9%655.35.4%

36ExportSelected!DJNT36Leather and Leather Goods Products17.60.0%-21.8%215.2-2.6%

37ExportSelected!DJNU36Paper and Paper Goods Products312.7-4.6%-4.1%3,825.9-1.6%

38ExportSelected!DJNV36Others Industrial Products3530.60.4%1.3%42,415.9-5.6%

39ExportSelected!DJUAAF36Total Mining Products Excluding Petroleum & Gas2050.714.6%-23.6%29,279.2-5.4%

40ExportSelected!DJUAAA34Copper Ores and Concentrates00.0%-100.0%2,620.12.4%

41ExportSelected!DJUAAB34Nickle Ores and Concentrates00.0%-100.0%1,310.3-15.6%

42ExportSelected!DJUAAC34Bauxite00.0%-100.0%1,166.083.0%

43ExportSelected!DJUAAD36Coal203814.3%-10.0%23,656.5-8.2%

44ExportSelected!DJUAAG36Other Mining Products12.798.4%-73.0%526.320.8%

0ImporType!dates796Jun-14$mn

1ImporType!DJCAAA79Consumer Goods1155.910.5%-6.3%6,297.26-2.1%7.0%

2ImporType!DJCAAB79Raw Materials11962.55.4%1.8%68,818.19-4.6%76.5%

3ImporType!DJCAAC79Capital Goods2602.79.6%-2.0%14,861.57-6.3%16.5%

0ImportSelected!dates785May-14Setahun Sebelumnya

1ImportSelected!DJCAAAA78CG: Food and Beverages for Household: Primary126.16-25.1%-28%666.9027%1,385.6-10.1%

2ImportSelected!DJCAAAB78CG: Food and Beverages for Household: Processed239.641.2%1%1,028.0510%2,443.0-13.9%

3ImportSelected!DJCAAAC78CG: Processed Fuel and Lubricants120.1822.7%14%527.182%1,350.9-5.9%

4ImportSelected!DJCAAAI78CG: Passenger Car63.78-3.5%-33%376.15-37%1,192.4-21.3%

5ImportSelected!DJCAAAD78CG: Transport Equipment not for Industry34.5921.9%-10%150.9114%386.110.2%

6ImportSelected!DJCAAAE78CG: Not Classified: Durable101.29-10.0%-36%552.90-9%1,599.50.9%

7ImportSelected!DJCAAAF78CG: Not Classified: Semi Durable176.81-10.9%-18%862.822%2,164.010.8%

8ImportSelected!DJCAAAG78CG: Not Classified: Non Durable179.62-10.2%-11%840.91-4%2,165.112.4%

9ImportSelected!DJCAAAH78CG: Others3.59-83.3%-94%135.56-17%452.271.0%

10ImportSelected!DJCAABA78RM: Food and Beverages for Industry: Primary485.57-13.3%-1%2,155.0722%4,354.46.2%

11ImportSelected!DJCAABB78RM: Food and Beverages for Industry: Processed296.56-9.3%-5%1,479.333%3,685.210.0%

12ImportSelected!DJCAABC78RM: Raw Material for Industry: Primary541.30-3.0%-3%2,462.84-7%6,299.311.7%

13ImportSelected!DJCAABD78RM: Raw Material for Industry: Processed4,702.66-11.1%-16%23,318.90-8%58,353.6-1.8%

14ImportSelected!DJCAABE78RM: Fuel and Lubricants: Primary1,316.9722.1%29%5,868.921%13,673.126.0%

15ImportSelected!DJCAABF78RM: Fuel and Lubricants: Processed1,199.965.8%17%5,851.072%14,977.2-5.4%

16ImportSelected!DJCAAAJ78RM: Motor Vehicle Fuel1,054.28-23.0%-16%6,157.55-3%14,839.25.5%

17ImportSelected!DJCAABG78RM: Spare Parts and Accessories: For Capital Goods1,235.55-16.4%-21%6,598.47-10%16,803.3-7.3%

18ImportSelected!DJCAABH78RM: Spare Parts and Accessories: For Transport Eq516.84-21.7%-31%2,963.55-25%8,972.62.9%

19ImportSelected!DJCAACA78Capital Goods: Excludes Transport2,072.45-11.3%-3%10,628.861%26,128.2-2.0%

20ImportSelected!DJCAACB78Capital Goods: Passenger Car63.78-3.5%-33%376.15-37%1,192.4-21.3%

21ImportSelected!DJCAACC78Capital Goods: Transport Equipment for Industry238.76-10.9%-61%1,253.86-39%4,211.3-57.8%

Cross check dibanding bulan sebelumnya1,045.6610.5%

11,349.695.4%

2,374.999.6%

Budi Hikmat:=INDEX(INDIRECT(B17),C17)

AnalysisCountryNonMigas

Housekeeping

6102BahanaTCW Macroeconomic Dashboard: Projecting Oil Trade Deficit

0DeficitOil!dates103Jun-14MoMYoYCumYoY

1DeficitOil!series49102Deficit Oil1,885.1-21.5%-9.7%13,675.42.5%27350.811900325.47452

2DeficitOil!series50103Auto861,389.02.9%12.8%4,844,619.07.0%

3DeficitOil!DPBA103ICP108.92.5%8.9%

4DeficitOil!series612103Subsidi4,600.08.2%80.4%

ModelCoefStatElasticityForecasting

Intercept(569.283)(2.81)Auto sales growth

Auto0.0013.530.527%7%7%7%7%10500

ICP7.3972.290.49106.50106.50111.82106.50106.5011600

Subsidi0.1993.830.424,800.004,600.002,000.001,000.000.010.5%

R276.0%Def/mo $mn2,085.952,046.231,569.251,331.261,132.65

IDR bisa diganti dengan rata-rata 1thStdError344.34Def/year $mn25,031.3624,554.7218,830.9515,975.0913,591.86

Selain asumsi APBNIDR11900Proyeksi Tahunan, Rptn297.87292.20224.09190.10161.74

3000MinAvgMaxConditional Forecast

6500Auto\Oil99107115100105110115120

70007.69%-10%218.16226.61235.06219.22224.50229.78235.06240.35

750015.38%-5%224.27232.72241.17225.32230.60235.88241.17246.45

800023.08%0%230.37238.82247.27231.42236.70241.98247.27252.55

850030.77%5%236.47244.92253.37237.52242.80248.08253.37258.65

900038.46%10%242.57251.02259.47243.62248.90254.19259.47264.75

950046.15%15%248.67257.12265.57249.72255.00260.29265.57270.85

1000053.85%Source: CEIC, BahanaTCW

Setiap IDR melemah 1%, defisit minyak meningkat idr2,5 tn

Info at year-endDec-13968,973,7959.7%

AnaVolM

HousekeepingForecasting JCI based on Real M1 growth

Jan-00Jul-14175Intercept6.40

0IDXRealM1g!dates175Slope0.05

1IDXRealM1g!DZEA175JCIReal M1 growthJCI_f 2014

2IDXRealM1g!series51175Real M1 growthWhenValueYoYLevelX year average2

3IDXRealM1g!series52175JCI YoYLast-4.287.304,919.9

11Y-0.0312.135,141.6

Since22Y5.0117.855,403.9

33Y8.3621.665,578.6

44Y8.8222.185,602.3

55Y8.3421.635,577.4

10.385088.80

Jul-14

0M1CPO!dates90

1M1CPO!series57790M1 growth0.05Y2404.005.34

2M1CPO!MPAAA90CPO2404.00X1InterceptSlopeCPOSlopeRubber

3M1CPO!series57690Rubber5.34X21 IndVar(1.525)0.00613.31

905.9141.02811.40

2 IndVar(1.159)0.0050.38312.34

M1 growth nominal12.3511.40

Inflation5.5

Estimated real M1 growth6.855.90

Forecast JCI19.9418.87

5,499.785,450.53

AnaVolX

6

LinkTBUSA

1

60

TBUSA!datesJun-144USA Trade Balance with Indonesia as of Jun-14Sensitivity w GDP

TBUSA!UAAAJCAAATBUSA!US: Real GDP: YoY: saUS GDPDefinition: M-XJun-14QoQYoYCumYoYCorrelElast

1TBUSA!series294TBUSA!Indonesia (ID)IDTBUSA!series2941Total2,380.7-15.9%7%10,023.66-0.64%-8%(0.01)

2TBUSA!series295TBUSA!Food and Live AnimalsIDTBUSA!series2952Food and Live Animals319.314.1%131%1,137.2623.77%-13%(0.05)

3TBUSA!series296TBUSA!Beverages and TobaccoIDTBUSA!series2963Beverages and Tobacco0.9-78.6%-75%(14.96)19.97%-4%(1.69)

4TBUSA!series297TBUSA!Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsIDTBUSA!series2974Crude Materials, Inedible, Except Fuels(139.5)-54.8%-4596%(626.45)-7074.49%15%1.43

5TBUSA!series298TBUSA!Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related MaterialIDTBUSA!series2985Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Material141.0-35.9%4%891.8195.07%-5%(0.02)

6TBUSA!series299TBUSA!Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesIDTBUSA!series2996Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes160.71.3%112%621.00170.58%-14%(0.16)

7TBUSA!series300TBUSA!Chemicals and Related Products, nesIDTBUSA!series3007Chemicals and Related Products, nes(78.7)-9.8%201%(294.74)13.37%-13%0.10

8TBUSA!series301TBUSA!Manufactured GoodsIDTBUSA!series3018Manufactured Goods481.615.0%15%1,744.035.68%5%0.01

9TBUSA!series302TBUSA!Machinery and Transport EquipmentIDTBUSA!series3029Machinery and Transport Equipment(464.6)-1572.1%-17%(1,378.41)54.06%17%0.29

10TBUSA!series303TBUSA!Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesIDTBUSA!series30310Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles1,956.7-7.1%-3%7,917.85-0.69%-21%(0.06)

11TBUSA!series304TBUSA!Commodities and Transactions, nesIDTBUSA!series30411Commodities and Transactions, nes3.3-62.0%-55%26.2749.70%11%0.18

12TBUSA!series305TBUSA!AustraliaAU

13TBUSA!series306TBUSA!Australia: Food and Live AnimalsAUUSA Trade Balance with Selected Countries for Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes

14TBUSA!series307TBUSA!Australia: Beverages and TobaccoAU6TBUSA!series2991Indonesia160.71.3%112%621.00170.58%-14%(0.16)

15TBUSA!series308TBUSA!Australia: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsAU17TBUSA!series3102Australia2.4-9.7%-86%11.71-32.55%-4%(1.31)

16TBUSA!series309TBUSA!Australia: Mineral Fuels,Lubricants,Relate MaterialAU28TBUSA!series3213Hong Kong(2.3)-66.3%3%(14.56)-41.98%-1%0.01

17TBUSA!series310TBUSA!Australia: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxeAU39TBUSA!series3324Russia(1.6)2783.6%-52967%(1.69)338.86%-18%0.32

18TBUSA!series311TBUSA!Australia: Chemicals and Related Products, nesAU50TBUSA!series3435Singapore(7.0)-2468.7%-240%(7.72)-508.63%-20%0.45

19TBUSA!series312TBUSA!Australia: Mfg Goods Classified Chiefly by MaterialAU61TBUSA!series3546Thailand0.873.9%167%1.66122.33%-48%(0.66)

20TBUSA!series313TBUSA!Australia: Machinery and Transport EquipmentAU72TBUSA!series3657China7.3-108.1%-120%(109.13)-72.06%-6%0.11

21TBUSA!series314TBUSA!Australia: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesAU83TBUSA!series3768India24.4-2.0%-43%87.17-419.24%23%1.08

22TBUSA!series315TBUSA!Australia: Commodities and Transactions, nesAU94TBUSA!series3879Japan(5.2)1500.0%-37%(4.16)-74.44%-0%0.00

23TBUSA!series316TBUSA!Hong KongHO105TBUSA!series39810Korea(5.1)35.1%67%(15.37)-79.47%14%(0.12)

24TBUSA!series317TBUSA!Hong Kong: Food and Live AnimalsHO116TBUSA!series40911Malaysia221.0-6.9%-30%895.82-29.56%-32%(0.25)

25TBUSA!series318TBUSA!Hong Kong: Beverages and TobaccoHO127TBUSA!series42012Taiwan0.9-48.2%6%3.14-53.96%1%(0.04)

26TBUSA!series319TBUSA!Hong Kong: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsHO138TBUSA!series63413Philippine40.1-27.8%44%172.102.38%-3%(0.02)

27TBUSA!series320TBUSA!Hong Kong: Mineral Fuels,Lubricants,Relate MaterialHO

28TBUSA!series321TBUSA!Hong Kong: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats & WaxesHOTotal10,023.66Malaysia895.816

29TBUSA!series322TBUSA!Hong Kong: Chemicals and Related Products, nesHOMiscellaneous Manufactured Articles7917.848Indonesia621.001

30TBUSA!series323TBUSA!Hong Kong: Manufactured GoodsHOManufactured Goods1744.026Philippine172.098

31TBUSA!series324TBUSA!Hong Kong: Machinery and Transport EquipmentHOFood and Live Animals1137.264India87.173

32TBUSA!series325TBUSA!Hong Kong: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesHOMineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Material891.81Australia11.707

33TBUSA!series326TBUSA!Hong Kong: Commodities and Transactions, nesHOAnimal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes621.001Taiwan3.137

34TBUSA!series327TBUSA!RussiaRUCommodities and Transactions, nes26.266Thailand1.663

35TBUSA!series328TBUSA!Russia: Food and Live AnimalsRUBeverages and Tobacco-14.962Russia-1.694

36TBUSA!series329TBUSA!Russia: Beverages and TobaccoRUChemicals and Related Products, nes-294.736Japan-4.158

37TBUSA!series330TBUSA!Russia: Crude Materials, Inedible, ex FuelsRUCrude Materials, Inedible, Except Fuels-626.449Singapore-7.719

38TBUSA!series331TBUSA!Russia: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Relate MaterialRUMachinery and Transport Equipment-1378.413Hong Kong-14.555

39TBUSA!series332TBUSA!Russia: Animal & Vegetable Oils, Fats & WaxesRUKorea-15.371

40TBUSA!series333TBUSA!Russia: Chemicals & Related Products, nesRU

41TBUSA!series334TBUSA!Russia: Manufactured GoodsRU

42TBUSA!series335TBUSA!Russia: Machinery and Transport EquipmentRU

43TBUSA!series336TBUSA!Russia: Misc Manufactured ArticlesRU

44TBUSA!series337TBUSA!Russia: Others not Classified ElsewhereRU

45TBUSA!series338TBUSA!Singapore (SG)SI

46TBUSA!series339TBUSA!SG: Food and Live AnimalsSG

47TBUSA!series340TBUSA!SG: Beverages and TobaccoSG

48TBUSA!series341TBUSA!SG: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsSG

49TBUSA!series342TBUSA!SG: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related MaterialSG

50TBUSA!series343TBUSA!SG: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesSG

51TBUSA!series344TBUSA!SG: Chemicals and Related Products, nesSG

52TBUSA!series345TBUSA!SG: Manufactured GoodsSG

53TBUSA!series346TBUSA!SG: Machinery and Transport EquipmentSG

54TBUSA!series347TBUSA!SG: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesSG

55TBUSA!series348TBUSA!SG: Commodities and Transactions, nesSG

56TBUSA!series349TBUSA!ThailandTH

57TBUSA!series350TBUSA!TH: Food and Live AnimalsTH

58TBUSA!series351TBUSA!TH: Beverages and TobaccoTH

59TBUSA!series352TBUSA!TH: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsTH

60TBUSA!series353TBUSA!TH: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related MaterialsTH

61TBUSA!series354TBUSA!TH: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesTH

62TBUSA!series355TBUSA!TH: Chemicals and Related Products, nesTH

63TBUSA!series356TBUSA!TH: Manufactured GoodsTH

64TBUSA!series357TBUSA!TH: Machinery and Transport EquipmentTH

65TBUSA!series358TBUSA!TH: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesTH

66TBUSA!series359TBUSA!TH: Commodities and Transactions, nesTH

67TBUSA!series360TBUSA!ChinaCH

68TBUSA!series361TBUSA!CN: Food and Live AnimalsCN

69TBUSA!series362TBUSA!CN: Beverages and TobaccoCN

70TBUSA!series363TBUSA!CN: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsCN

71TBUSA!series364TBUSA!CN: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related MaterCN

72TBUSA!series365TBUSA!CN: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesCN

73TBUSA!series366TBUSA!CN: Chemicals and Related Products, nesCN

74TBUSA!series367TBUSA!CN: Manufactured GoodsCN

75TBUSA!series368TBUSA!CN: Machinery and Transport EquipmentCN

76TBUSA!series369TBUSA!CN: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesCN

77TBUSA!series370TBUSA!CN: Commodities and Transactions, nesCN

78TBUSA!series371TBUSA!India (IN)IN

79TBUSA!series372TBUSA!IN: Food and Live AnimalsIN

80TBUSA!series373TBUSA!IN: Beverages and TobaccoIN

81TBUSA!series374TBUSA!IN: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsIN

82TBUSA!series375TBUSA!IN: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Related MaterialIN

83TBUSA!series376TBUSA!IN: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesIN

84TBUSA!series377TBUSA!IN: Chemicals and Related Products, nesIN

85TBUSA!series378TBUSA!IN: Manufactured Goods alIN

86TBUSA!series379TBUSA!IN: Machinery and Transport EquipmentIN

87TBUSA!series380TBUSA!IN: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesIN

88TBUSA!series381TBUSA!IN: Commodities and Transactions, nesIN

89TBUSA!series382TBUSA!JapanJA

90TBUSA!series383TBUSA!JP: Food and Live AnimalsJP

91TBUSA!series384TBUSA!JP: Beverages and TobaccoJP

92TBUSA!series385TBUSA!JP: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsJP

93TBUSA!series386TBUSA!JP: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Relate MaterialsJP

94TBUSA!series387TBUSA!JP: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesJP

95TBUSA!series388TBUSA!JP: Chemicals and Related Products, nesJP

96TBUSA!series389TBUSA!JP: Manufactured Goods alJP

97TBUSA!series390TBUSA!JP: Machinery and Transport EquipmentJP

98TBUSA!series391TBUSA!JP: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesJP

99TBUSA!series392TBUSA!JP: Commodities and Transactions, nesJP

100TBUSA!series393TBUSA!Korea (KR)KO

101TBUSA!series394TBUSA!KR: Food and Live AnimalsKR

102TBUSA!series395TBUSA!KR: Beverages and TobaccoKR

103TBUSA!series396TBUSA!KR: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsKR

104TBUSA!series397TBUSA!KR: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Relate MaterialKR

105TBUSA!series398TBUSA!KR: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesKR

106TBUSA!series399TBUSA!KR: Chemicals and Related Products, nesKR

107TBUSA!series400TBUSA!KR: Manufactured GoodsKR

108TBUSA!series401TBUSA!KR: Machinery and Transport EquipmentKR

109TBUSA!series402TBUSA!KR: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesKR

110TBUSA!series403TBUSA!KR: Commodities and Transactions, nesKR

111TBUSA!series404TBUSA!Malaysia (MY)MA

112TBUSA!series405TBUSA!MY: Food and Live AnimalsMY

113TBUSA!series406TBUSA!MY: Beverages and TobaccoMY

114TBUSA!series407TBUSA!MY: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsMY

115TBUSA!series408TBUSA!MY: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Relate MateriaMY

116TBUSA!series409TBUSA!MY: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesMY

117TBUSA!series410TBUSA!MY: Chemicals and Related Products, nesMY

118TBUSA!series411TBUSA!MY: Manufactured GoodsMY

119TBUSA!series412TBUSA!MY: Machinery and Transport EquipmentMY

120TBUSA!series413TBUSA!MY: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesMY

121TBUSA!series414TBUSA!MY: Commodities and Transactions, nesMY

122TBUSA!series415TBUSA!TaiwanTA

123TBUSA!series416TBUSA!TW: Food and Live AnimalsTW

124TBUSA!series417TBUSA!TW: Beverages and TobaccoTW

125TBUSA!series418TBUSA!TW: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsTW

126TBUSA!series419TBUSA!TW: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Rel MaterialsTW

127TBUSA!series420TBUSA!TW: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesTW

128TBUSA!series421TBUSA!TW: Chemicals and Related Products, nesTW

129TBUSA!series422TBUSA!TW: Manufactured Goods alTW

130TBUSA!series423TBUSA!TW: Machinery and Transport EquipmentTW

131TBUSA!series424TBUSA!TW: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesTW

132TBUSA!series425TBUSA!TW: Commodities and Transactions, nesTW

133TBUSA!series629TBUSA!PHPH

134TBUSA!series630TBUSA!PH: Food and Live AnimalsPH

135TBUSA!series631TBUSA!PH: Beverages and TobaccoPH

136TBUSA!series632TBUSA!PH: Crude Materials, Inedible, Except FuelsPH

137TBUSA!series633TBUSA!PH: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Rel MaterialsPH

138TBUSA!series634TBUSA!PH: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesPH

139TBUSA!series635TBUSA!PH: Chemicals and Related Products, nesPH

140TBUSA!series636TBUSA!PH: Manufactured Goods alPH

141TBUSA!series637TBUSA!PH: Machinery and Transport EquipmentPH

142TBUSA!series638TBUSA!PH: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesPH

143TBUSA!series639TBUSA!PH: Commodities and Transactions, nesPH

144TBUSA!series426TBUSA!USA: Food and Live AnimalsUS

145TBUSA!series427TBUSA!USA: Beverages and TobaccoUS

146TBUSA!series428TBUSA!USA: Crude Materials, Inedible except FuelsUS

147TBUSA!series429TBUSA!USA: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related MaterialsUS

148TBUSA!series430TBUSA!USA: Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and WaxesUS

149TBUSA!series431TBUSA!USA: Chemicals and Related Products, nesUS

150TBUSA!series432TBUSA!USA: Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by MaterialUS

151TBUSA!series433TBUSA!USA: Machinery and Transport EquipmentUS

152TBUSA!series434TBUSA!USA: Miscellaneous Manufactured ArticlesUS

AnaVolX

USA Trade Balance with Selected Countries for Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes

AnalysisREER

USA Trade Balance with Indonesia as of Jun-14

AnalysisCA

Selected Non-MigasLatest data, last q and a, share

303Jun-14MoMYoYCumCumYoY2013Last Q

0CountryNonMigas!dates30Trade Direction24

1CountryNonMigas!DJPFDJZ30ExportsTotal12625.71.4%5.6%36,714.7-2.0%149,079.48-1.8%ValueShareTrade PartnerJun-14QoQ

2CountryNonMigas!DJPFDCA30Japan1214.44.5%-7.5%3,536.6-12.6%15,552.29-7.5%1China21,118.0714.2%Japan3,571.69-13.0%

3CountryNonMigas!DJPFDCD30Korea, Republic Of474.7-1.3%-3.4%1,426.5-8.1%5,872.85-9.2%2Japan15,552.2910.4%Korea, Republic Of1,382.76-11.5%

4CountryNonMigas!DJPFDCE30Taiwan372.47.3%31.6%1,106.621.6%3,768.41-5.2%3United States15,157.9310.2%Taiwan938.154.1%

5CountryNonMigas!DJPFDCF30China1329.2-8.0%-13.2%4,043.2-18.9%21,118.070.7%4India12,524.988.4%China4,933.82-3.2%

6CountryNonMigas!DJPFDCK30Thailand439.911.4%-0.4%1,230.9-10.6%5,144.20-6.0%5Singapore10,000.616.7%Thailand1,308.37-5.1%

7CountryNonMigas!DJPFDCL30Singapore871.1-4.9%2.4%2,698.59.2%10,000.61-9.4%6Malaysia6,866.414.6%Singapore2,568.99-13.0%

8CountryNonMigas!DJPFDCN30Malaysia574.2-9.1%-1.8%1,716.7-7.7%6,866.41-13.8%7Korea, Republic Of5,872.853.9%Malaysia1,523.43-20.9%

9CountryNonMigas!DJPFDCW30India949.3-11.6%-8.4%2,920.4-17.1%12,524.98-0.7%8Thailand5,144.203.5%India2,759.50-14.9%

10CountryNonMigas!DJPFDFS30Australia243.8-20.8%22.7%996.649.7%3,323.841.5%9Taiwan3,768.412.5%Australia1,014.6852.8%

11CountryNonMigas!DJPFDGL30United States1408.79.3%9.7%4,072.57.4%15,157.933.4%10Australia3,323.842.2%United States3,829.072.0%

12CountryNonMigas!DJPFDID30United Kingdom157.810.5%18.8%439.46.3%1,645.88-0.8%11Germany2,875.421.9%United Kingdom395.263.2%

13CountryNonMigas!DJPFDIF30France90.2-5.6%-2.3%277.52.2%1,044.94-7.9%12United Kingdom1,645.881.1%France241.89-6.8%

14CountryNonMigas!DJPFDIG30Germany259.93.5%10.8%754.0-2.0%2,875.42-3.2%13France1,044.940.7%Germany674.38-1.0%

15CountryNonMigas!DJPFCCO30ImportsTotal12326.511.4%1.8%35,952.3-5.8%139,451.30-5.8%ImportsQoQ

16CountryNonMigas!DJPFBVP30Japan1529.221.6%-3.0%4,439.9-13.1%18,635.20-14.3%1China30,203.9821.7%Japan4,232.17-9.0%

17CountryNonMigas!DJPFBVS30Korea, Republic Of750.326.7%9.0%2,086.7-10.1%8,356.87-3.3%2Japan18,635.2013.4%Korea, Republic Of1,885.58-19.5%

18CountryNonMigas!DJPFBVT30Taiwan314.35.5%-7.9%968.8-9.6%4,053.94-4.2%3Thailand10,214.567.3%Taiwan895.75-11.0%

19CountryNonMigas!DJPFBVU30China2657.36.0%3.8%8,017.61.3%30,203.984.7%4Singapore10,160.237.3%China7,150.209.7%

20CountryNonMigas!DJPFBVZ30Thailand943.314.0%5.8%2,600.1-13.2%10,214.56-9.9%5United States8,937.936.4%Thailand2,361.06-14.5%

21CountryNonMigas!DJPFBWA30Singapore862.82.3%4.4%2,670.92.1%10,160.23-3.4%6Korea, Republic Of8,356.876.0%Singapore2,469.260.1%

22CountryNonMigas!DJPFBWC30Malaysia564.524.6%21.1%1,551.6-0.7%5,861.07-7.3%7Malaysia5,861.074.2%Malaysia1,440.70-4.5%

23CountryNonMigas!DJPFBWK30India344-2.7%-12.9%1,045.1-3.0%3,633.64-8.7%8Australia5,016.013.6%India899.71-13.1%

24CountryNonMigas!DJPFBYX30Australia53026.1%0.9%1,437.84.9%5,016.012.2%9Germany4,144.743.0%Australia1,202.2618.4%

25CountryNonMigas!DJPFBZK30United States822.520.0%10.9%2,348.5-11.1%8,937.93-17.1%10Taiwan4,053.942.9%United States1,984.123.3%

26CountryNonMigas!DJPFCAU30United Kingdom88.317.6%8.0%238.0-13.0%1,053.61-19.2%11India3,633.642.6%United Kingdom225.28-11.0%

27CountryNonMigas!DJPFCAW30France119.734.9%-40.7%329.4-21.4%1,507.29-19.7%12France1,507.291.1%France367.32-10.5%

28CountryNonMigas!DJPFCAX30Germany366.6-5.4%21.3%1,135.6-4.7%4,144.74-10.2%13United Kingdom1,053.610.8%Germany984.20-21.6%

29CountryNonMigas!series59830TBTotal299.2-78.4%-304.1%762.4-210.5%9,628.18156.9%Trade SurplusQoQ

30CountryNonMigas!series59930Japan-314.8228.6%19.0%(903.2)-15.1%(3,082.91)-37.5%1India8,891.34Japan(660.48)20.6%

31CountryNonMigas!series60030Korea, Republic Of-275.6147.9%39.9%(660.3)-14.2%(2,484.02)14.1%2United States6,220.00Korea, Republic Of(502.82)-35.5%

32CountryNonMigas!series60130Taiwan58.118.0%-199.6%137.8-185.0%(285.53)11.5%3Malaysia1,005.34Taiwan42.40-140.5%

33CountryNonMigas!series60230China-1328.125.0%29.1%(3,974.3)35.9%(9,085.90)15.5%4United Kingdom592.27China(2,216.38)56.2%

34CountryNonMigas!series60330Thailand-503.416.4%11.8%(1,369.3)-15.3%(5,070.36)-13.6%5Singapore(159.62)Thailand(1,052.69)-23.8%

35CountryNonMigas!series60430Singapore8.3-88.6%-65.6%27.7-118.9%(159.62)-130.7%6Taiwan(285.53)Singapore99.74-79.5%

36CountryNonMigas!series60530Malaysia9.7-94.6%-91.8%165.1-44.2%1,005.34-39.0%7France(462.35)Malaysia82.73-80.1%

37CountryNonMigas!series60630India605.3-16.0%-5.6%1,875.3-23.4%8,891.343.0%8Germany(1,269.32)India1,859.79-15.8%

38CountryNonMigas!series60730Australia-286.2154.3%-12.4%(441.2)-37.4%(1,692.17)3.6%9Australia(1,692.17)Australia(187.58)-46.7%

39CountryNonMigas!series60830United States586.2-2.8%8.0%1,724.050.0%6,220.0060.4%10Korea, Republic Of(2,484.02)United States1,844.950.7%

40CountryNonMigas!series60930United Kingdom69.52.5%36.2%201.444.1%592.2766.7%11Japan(3,082.91)United Kingdom169.9830.8%

41CountryNonMigas!series61030France-29.5-533.3%-73.1%(52.0)-64.9%(462.35)-37.9%12Thailand(5,070.36)France(125.43)-16.8%

42CountryNonMigas!series61130Germany-106.7-21.9%57.5%(381.6)-9.6%(1,269.32)-22.9%13China(9,085.90)Germany(309.81)-46.0%

Budi Hikmat:=MONTH(F3)

AnalysisGDP

Housekeeping5Last Year

Feb-14Imports Volume in 2013

0VolumeM!dates29May-14MoMYoY26YoYKg mnYoY

1Volumem!DJPFAJM29Food and Live Animals2,245.49.3%5%22,0554%1Mineral Fules, Lubricants and etc49,86911.9%

2Volumem!DJPFAMI29Live Animal for Food24.137.6%50%13129%2Petroleum and Petroleum Products45,79511.2%

3Volumem!DJPFAMJ29Meat and Meat Preparations11.193.9%139%6340%3Manufactured Goods23,2533.1%

4Volumem!DJPFAMK29Dairy Product and Eggs32.3-17.9%-10%3807%4Food and Live Animals22,0553.9%

5Volumem!DJPFAML29Fish, Crustaceans,Molluscs and Preparations11.6-11.8%-9%156-3%5Crude Materials, Inedible20,5327.8%

6Volumem!DJPFAMM29Cereals and Cereal Preparations1,153.411.5%10%10,7094%6Chemical18,191-10.6%

7Volumem!DJPFAMN29Fruits and Vegetables120.0-24.6%-31%1,420-17%7Iron and Steel12,9301.1%

8Volumem!DJPFAMO29Sugar, Sugar Preparations, and Honey323.310.1%12%3,68718%8Cereals and Cereal Preparations10,7093.5%

9Volumem!DJPFAMP29Coffee, Tea, Cocoa, and Spices20.9-12.9%12%173-20%9Crude Fertilizers and Crude Minerals7,848-3.0%

10Volumem!DJPFAMQ29Feeding Stuff for Animals527.519.0%4%5,0743%10Machinery and Transport Equipments5,722-21.9%

11Volumem!DJPFAMR29Miscellaneous Food Preparations21.2-10.7%-20%26417%11Non Metalic Minerals Manufactured5,5849.8%

12Volumem!DJPFAJN29Beverages and Tobacco25.65.4%7%2595%12Feeding Stuff for Animals5,0742.8%

13Volumem!DJPFAMS29Beverages17.736.7%11%12328%13Metalliferous Ores and Metal Scraps5,02641.1%

14Volumem!DJPFAMT29Tobacco and Tobacco Manufactured7.9-30.3%-3%135-11%14Manufactured Fertilizers4,931-23.8%

15Volumem!DJPFAJO29Crude Materials, Inedible1,876.2-19.0%-7%20,5328%15Organic Chemicals4,3220.4%

16Volumem!DJPFAMU29Hides, Skins and Furskins0.365.6%3%353%16Pulp and Waste Paper3,8585.5%

17Volumem!DJPFAMV29Oil Seeds, Nuts, and Kernels262.0-16.5%24%2,092-2%17Sugar, Sugar Preparations, and Honey3,68717.8%

18Volumem!DJPFAMW29Crude Rubber27.4-16.5%-8%3481%18Inorganic Chemicals3,524-6.9%

19Volumem!DJPFAMX29Wood, Lumber, and Cork34.1-18.3%27%33424%19Gas; Natural and Manufactured3,4268.1%

20Volumem!DJPFAMY29Pulp and Waste Paper318.4-12.2%-17%3,8586%20Plastics In Primary Forms3,0118.7%

21Volumem!DJPFAMZ29Textile Fibres and Their Waste88.6-18.9%1%9995%Source: CEICDATA

22Volumem!DJPFANA29Crude Fertilizers and Crude Minerals851.92.7%11%7,848-3%

23Volumem!DJPFANB29Metalliferous Ores and Metal Scraps291.8-53.4%-44%5,02641%

24Volumem!DJPFANC29Crude Animals and Vegetable Materials, Nes1.7-13.5%-30%24-6%

25Volumem!DJPFAJP29Mineral Fules, Lubricants and etc4,215.63.4%8%49,86912%

26Volumem!DJPFAND29Coal, Coke, and Briquettes171.9102.4%977%647241%

27Volumem!DJPFANE29Petroleum and Petroleum Products3,770.52.5%4%45,79511%

28Volumem!DJPFANF29Gas; Natural and Manufactured273.2-13.8%1%3,4268%

29Volumem!DJPFANG18Electric Current0.0-100.0%-100%020%

30Volumem!DJPFAJQ29Animal and Vegetables Oils and Fats9.4-10.3%-3%208104%

31Volumem!DJPFANH29Animal Oils and Fats1.0-2.8%60%8-37%

32Volumem!DJPFANI29Fixed Vegetable Oils/Fats4.2-16.2%-8%114182%

33Volumem!DJPFANJ29Animal Vegetable Oils/Fats4.2-5.4%-8%8676%

34Volumem!DJPFAJR29Chemical1,572.3-16.8%-9%18,191-11%

35Volumem!DJPFANK29Organic Chemicals331.1-18.5%-12%4,3220%

36Volumem!DJPFANL29Inorganic Chemicals261.7-34.0%-28%3,524-7%

37Volumem!DJPFANM29Dyeing,Tanning, and Colouring Materials37.6-8.1%-10%43812%

38Volumem!DJPFANN29Medical and Pharmaceutical Products3.4-21.1%-35%46-67%

39Volumem!DJPFANO29Essential Oils and Perfumery Materials22.6-11.1%-1%2518%

40Volumem!DJPFANP29Manufactured Fertilizers512.6-13.8%7%4,931-24%

41Volumem!DJPFANQ29Plastics In Primary Forms250.0-12.7%-9%3,0119%

42Volumem!DJPFANR29Plastics In Non-Primary Forms33.4-12.3%-14%413-3%

43Volumem!DJPFANS29Chemical Materials and Its Products, Nes119.923.9%0%1,255-31%

44Volumem!DJPFAJS29Manufactured Goods1,718.2-18.1%-20%23,2533%

45Volumem!DJPFANT29Leather, Leather Med, Nes4.5-13.6%11%516%

46Volumem!DJPFANU29Rubber Manufactured, Nes20.6-10.3%-22%261-8%

47Volumem!DJPFANV29Wood and Cork Manufactured45.9-10.2%-29%73225%

48Volumem!DJPFANW29Paper, Paperboard, and Manufactured Thereof62.3-7.0%-5%7310%

49Volumem!DJPFANX29Textile Yarns, Fabrics, and Their Products89.2-10.5%-4%928-1%

50Volumem!DJPFANY29Non Metalic Minerals Manufactured414.5-36.1%15%5,58410%

51Volumem!DJPFANZ29Iron and Steel924.1-10.2%-32%12,9301%

52Volumem!DJPFAOA29Non Ferrous Metals71.8-13.5%-17%992-6%

53Volumem!DJPFAOB29Manufactured of Metal, Nes85.2-8.0%-5%1,045-0%

54Volumem!DJPFAJT29Machinery and Transport Equipments454.93.4%-15%5,722-22%

55Volumem!DJPFAOC29Power Generating Machine and Equipments43.8-5.0%-21%589-6%

56Volumem!DJPFAOD29Machinery Specialized for Particular Industry76.58.8%-12%904-42%

57Volumem!DJPFAOE29Metalworking Machinery9.9-18.0%-45%200-46%

58Volumem!DJPFAOF29General Industrial Machinery and Equipments90.8-16.1%-24%1,27311%

59Volumem!DJPFAOG29Office Machinery and Automatic Data Processing8.71.1%-9%108-19%

60Volumem!DJPFAOH29Telecommunication and Reproducers Apparatus11.4-9.0%-14%133-14%

61Volumem!DJPFAOI29Electrical Machinery and Apparatus43.1-24.5%-29%711-3%

62Volumem!DJPFAOJ29Road Vehicles75.1-8.5%-27%1,123-12%

63Volumem!DJPFAOK29Other Transportation Equipments95.6122.0%42%680-49%

64Volumem!DJPFAJU29Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles79.6-13.2%-19%1,0192%

65Volumem!DJPFAOL29Sanitary, Plumbing, and Fittings9.13.0%28%9517%

66Volumem!DJPFAOM29Furniture10.8-14.4%-29%1425%

67Volumem!DJPFAON29Traveling Goods2.60.6%-19%32-5%

68Volumem!DJPFAOO29Clothing9.9-2.1%-17%11320%

69Volumem!DJPFAOP29Footwear5.1-22.9%-32%59-2%

70Volumem!DJPFAOQ29Professional, Scientific, and Contractor Instruments5.1-22.2%-12%84-16%

71Volumem!DJPFAOR29Photographic Apparatus, Equipments and Optics2.2-30.3%-18%30-1%

72Volumem!DJPFAOS29Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles34.9-15.6%-24%4641%

73Volumem!DJPFAJV29Commodities and Other Special Transactions0.011.1%-100%16711%

74Volumem!DJPLAMC13Coin; Not Being Legal Tender0.00.0%-100%1158995%

75Volumem!DJPFAOT29Gold; Non Monetary0.014.5%1%030%

76Volumem!DJPLAMBGold Coin and Current Coin

AGDPNominalIn

Housekeeping5Last Year

Dec-13

0VolumeX!dates29May-14MoMYoY24YoY

1VolumeX!DJPFDUW29Food and Live Animals812.9-9.4%4%9,8315%1Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Etc468,7598.2%

2VolumeX!DJPFCGU29Live Animal for Food2.9-0.8%-12%374%2Coal, Coke, and Briquettes424,46110.4%

3VolumeX!DJPFCGV29Meat and Meat Preparations0.616.1%-30%86%3Crude Materials, Inedible167,70054.0%

4VolumeX!DJPFCGW29Dairy Product and Eggs4.2-0.3%-5%534%4Metalliferous Ores and Metal Scraps145,96060.2%

5VolumeX!DJPFCGX29Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs and Preparations87.97.2%-18%1,0311%5Animal & Vegetable Oils/fats25,93411.8%

6VolumeX!DJPFCGY29Cereals and Cereal Preparations21.6-5.8%29%2384%6Gas; Natural and Manufactured25,110-9.8%

7VolumeX!DJPFCGZ29Fruits and Vegetables104.7-1.3%23%1,10711%7Fixed Vegetable Oils/fats22,8598.2%

8VolumeX!DJPFCHA29Sugar, Sugar Preparations, and Honey49.6-53.2%51%60932%8Petroleum and Petroleum Products19,188-7.9%

9VolumeX!DJPFCHB29Coffee, Tea, Cocoa, and Spices86.98.9%-10%1,25711%9Manufactured Goods12,8996.4%

10VolumeX!DJPFCHC29Feeding Stuff for Animals360.9-9.9%0%4,5433%10Crude Fertilizers and Crude Minerals11,72832.3%

11VolumeX!DJPFCHD29Miscellaneous Food Preparations93.62.0%19%948-8%11Chemicals10,91614.9%

12VolumeX!DJPFDUX29Beverages and Tobacco23.35.7%-3%23715%12Food and Live Animals9,8314.8%

13VolumeX!DJPFCHE29Beverages12.617.1%-5%11920%13Feeding Stuff for Animals4,5433.0%

14VolumeX!DJPFCHF29Tobacco and Tobacco Manufactured10.6-5.3%-1%11810%14Paper, Paperboard, and Manufactured Thereof4,2531.1%

15VolumeX!DJPFDUY29Crude Materials, Inedible2,051.015.9%-84%167,70054%15Pulp and Waste Paper3,74516.9%

16VolumeX!DJPLAMG8Hides, Skins and Furskins0.00.0%0%0-87%16Organic Chemicals3,1508.2%

17VolumeX!DJPFCHG29Oil Seeds, Nuts, and Kernels71.11210.8%514%215-4%17Animal Vegetable Oils/fats3,07547.5%

18VolumeX!DJPFCHH29Crude Rubber228.2-7.8%-6%2,75611%18Crude Rubber2,75610.6%

19VolumeX!DJPFCHI29Wood, Lumber, and Cork269.0-31.6%26%2,38314%19Wood and Cork Manufactured2,72914.9%

20VolumeX!DJPFCHJ29Pulp and Waste Paper282.5-1.6%-8%3,74517%20Chemical Materials and Its Products, Nes2,53726.9%

21VolumeX!DJPFCHK29Textile Fibres and Their Waste34.9-1.1%19%365-0%

22VolumeX!DJPFCHL29Crude Fertilizers and Crude Minerals1,085.051.9%2020%11,72832%

23VolumeX!DJPFCHM29Metalliferous Ores and Metal Scraps25.623.2%-100%145,96060%

24VolumeX!DJPFCHN29Crude Animals and Vegetable Materials, Nes54.7-16.9%-2%5475%

25VolumeX!DJPFDUZ29Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, Etc39,660.21.3%-7%468,7598%

26VolumeX!DJPFCHO29Coal, Coke, and Briquettes36,408.12.1%-6%424,46110%

27VolumeX!DJPFCHP29Petroleum and Petroleum Products1,501.53.6%-21%19,188-8%

28VolumeX!DJPFCHQ29Gas; Natural and Manufactured1,750.5-13.7%-16%25,110-10%

29VolumeX!DJPFDVA29Animal & Vegetable Oils/fats2,367.580.1%1%25,93412%

30VolumeX!DJPFCHR29Animal Oils and Fats0.0-82.4%-68%0-60%

31VolumeX!DJPFCHS29Fixed Vegetable Oils/fats2,124.885.3%4%22,8598%

32VolumeX!DJPFCHT29Animal Vegetable Oils/fats242.744.6%-17%3,07547%

33VolumeX!DJPFDVB29Chemicals987.611.6%-11%10,91615%

34VolumeX!DJPFCHU29Organic Chemicals372.12.3%45%3,1508%

35VolumeX!DJPFCHV29Inorganic Chemicals114.116.0%-22%1,119-13%

36VolumeX!DJPFCHW29Dyeing,tanning, and Colouring Materials8.76.9%-13%15245%

37VolumeX!DJPFCHX29Medical and Pharmaceutical Products2.529.6%46%45104%

38VolumeX!DJPFCHY29Essential Oils and Perfumery Materials79.0-4.2%-11%94411%

39VolumeX!DJPFCHZ29Manufactured Fertilizers150.28.4%-54%1,83247%

40VolumeX!DJPFCIA29Plastics In Primary Forms82.6-7.6%13%8677%

41VolumeX!DJPFCIB29Plastics In Non-primary Forms22.8-7.9%-4%2721%

42VolumeX!DJPFCIC29Chemical Materials and Its Products, Nes155.7100.6%-14%2,53727%

43VolumeX!DJPFDVC29Manufactured Goods1,220.60.5%13%12,8996%

44VolumeX!DJPFCID29Leather, Leather Med, Nes0.53.2%-6%8-6%

45VolumeX!DJPFCIE29Rubber Manufactured, Nes50.2-1.6%0%5716%

46VolumeX!DJPFCIF29Wood and Cork Manufactured250.01.8%14%2,72915%

47VolumeX!DJPFCIG29Paper, Paperboard, and Manufactured Thereof373.1-0.0%2%4,2531%

48VolumeX!DJPFCIH29Textile Yarns, Fabrics, and Their Products111.5-0.9%0%1,27111%

49VolumeX!DJPFCII29Non Metalic Minerals Manufactured146.419.3%-17%2,26533%

50VolumeX!DJPFCIJ29Iron and Steel205.2-11.5%229%822-22%

51VolumeX!DJPFCIK29Non Ferrous Metals47.017.9%-26%559-4%

52VolumeX!DJPFCIL29Manufactured Of Metal, Nes36.7-1.9%4%420-16%

53VolumeX!DJPFDVD29Machinery & Transportation Equipments145.7-4.1%-11%1,929-2%

54VolumeX!DJPFCIM29Power Generating Machine and Equipments7.1-3.6%-33%1085%

55VolumeX!DJPFCIN29Machinery Specialized for Particular Industry21.0-0.4%-14%266-2%

56VolumeX!DJPFCIO29Metalworking Machinery0.6310.4%147%57%

57VolumeX!DJPFCIP29General Industrial Machinery and Equipments17.723.7%-13%19416%

58VolumeX!DJPFCIQ29Office Machinery and Automatic Data Processing2.7-8.6%-17%34-8%

59VolumeX!DJPFCIR29Telecommunication and Reproducers Apparatus8.80.6%-21%128-9%

60VolumeX!DJPFCIS29Electrical Machinery and Apparatus36.8-6.5%-13%500-8%

61VolumeX!DJPFCIT29Road Vehicles42.9-10.7%0%527-1%

62VolumeX!DJPFCIU29Other Transportation Equipments8.0-18.2%8%166-2%

63VolumeX!DJPFDVE29Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles148.9-3.4%-14%1,7990%

64VolumeX!DJPFCIV29Sanitary, Plumbing, and Fittings2.0-17.2%52%31-5%

65VolumeX!DJPFCIW29Furniture47.9-5.5%-6%568-7%

66VolumeX!DJPFCIX29Traveling Goods1.8-4.6%-4%1710%

67VolumeX!DJPFCIY29Clothing43.5-3.2%-12%5405%

68VolumeX!DJPFCIZ29Footwear19.93.9%-8%2137%

69VolumeX!DJPFCJA29Professional, Scientific, and Contractor Instruments1.31.2%2%1610%

70VolumeX!DJPFCJB29Photographic Apparatus, Equipments and Optics0.4-9.9%-95%12303%

71VolumeX!DJPFCJC29Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles31.9-3.7%-17%4021%

72VolumeX!DJPFDVF29Special Commodities &transaction0.01.9%9%030%

73VolumeX!DJPFCJD17Coin; Not Being Legal Tender0.00.0%0%0183%

74VolumeX!DJPFCJE29Gold; Non Monetary0.01.9%9%01%

75VolumeX!DJPLAMI6Gold Coin and Current Coin0.00.0%0%0-95%

GDP

HousekeepingLast x year

MinMax2

0REER!dates246Jun-14MoMYoYREERWhenREERWhen

1REER!CMABOE246CNY114.030.1%-1.8%65.58Jan-94121.2Jan-144.9%

2REER!HMDW246HKD106.810.2%1.3%91.31Aug-11163.82Aug-984.6%

3REER!IMDPD246INR89.13-0.1%0.5%80.94Feb-96103.13Jul-11-1.7%

4REER!DMKCD246IDR84.63-2.7%-13.1%37.11Jun-98117.81Feb-97-12.5%

5REER!JMDVF246JPY77.75-0.2%-3.2%74.91Jan-14150.25Apr-95-24.2%

6REER!KMTDF246KRW112.860.6%11.9%71.69Jan-98131.91Apr-0615.6%

7REER!MMGID246MYR99.610.6%-0.8%85Jan-98130.46Mar-971.4%

8REER!PMHF246PHP109.40.7%0.6%73.14Feb-04119.19Apr-973.2%

9REER!SFMBF246SGD114.10.4%2.0%88.81Jun-05115.05Nov-134.2%

10REER!TMIAEBB246THP100.820.1%-4.3%67.02Jan-98117.07Mar-971.6%

11REER!BRMFVD246BRR92.82-0.2%3.4%42.02Oct-02110.02Jul-112.1%

12REER!TRMCK246TRY86.32-0.7%-5.1%48Apr-94103.96Aug-08-6.3%

CPI

Housekeeping

CountNameLast dataCurrent Account Balance

0CA!dates41Mar-14QoQYoY2013YoY$ bn1Q142013YoY

1CA!DJQMADR41Current Account (CA)(4,190.6)-3%-30%(29,090.06)0.1%Total(4.19)(29.09)0.1%

2CA!DJQMADS41CA: Goods3,545.5-26%118%6,015.6823.3%>Good3.556.0223.3%

3CA!DJQMADV41CA: Goods: Exports44,411.5-8%-2%183,343.78-1.5%>>Noilgas6.1715.7227.6%

4CA!DJQMADY41CA: Goods: Imports40,866.0-6%-6%177,328.11-2.4%>>Oil(5.92)(22.48)2.5%

5CA!DJQMADT41CA: Goods: Non Oil and Gas6,166.9-10%38%15,724.2327.6%

6CA!DJQMADW41CA: Goods: Exports: Non Oil and Gas36,682.7-8%-0%149,755.36-0.9%>Services(2.21)(12.07)6.5%

7CA!DJQMADZ41CA: Goods: Imports: Non Oil and Gas30,515.8-7%-5%134,031.13-3.8%>>Transport(2.03)(8.93)2.9%

8CA!DJQMADU41CA: Goods: Oil and Gas(2,621.4)23%-8%(9,708.56)31.4%>>Travel0.761.4426.2%

9CA!DJQMADX41CA: Goods: Exports: Oil and Gas7,728.8-11%-9%33,588.42-4.1%>>Insurance(0.23)(1.03)-5.2%

10CA!DJQMAEA41CA: Goods: Imports: Oil and Gas10,350.2-4%-9%43,296.982.0%>>Royalty(0.43)(1.68)6.9%

11CA!DJQPAAA41CA: Goods: Oil(5,922.9)10%-7%(22,483.13)2.5%

12CA!DJQPAAB41CA: Goods: Oil: Exports3,642.4-20%-15%17,888.77-2.1%Income(6.49)(27.00)2.0%

13CA!DJQPAAC41CA: Goods: Oil: Imports9,565.3-3%-10%40,371.900.4%

14CA!DJQPAAD41CA: Goods: Gas3,301.52%-6%12,774.58-12.1%

15CA!DJQPAAE41CA: Goods: Gas: Exports4,086.3-1%-2%15,699.65-6.3%

16CA!DJQPAAF36CA: Goods: Gas: Imports784.9-12%16%2,925.0828.5%

17CA!DJQPAAG41CA: Goods: General Merchandise (GM)2,504.8-31%203%2,276.3449.3%

18CA!DJQPAAH41CA: Goods: GM: Exports42,912.8-8%-2%177,789.08-1.7%

19CA!DJQPAAI41CA: Goods: GM: Exports o/w Oil and Gas7,262.1-11%-10%31,733.77-4.2%

20CA!DJQPAAJ41CA: Goods: GM: Imports40,408.0-6%-6%175,512.74-2.5%

21CA!DJQPAAK41CA: Goods: GM: Imports o/w Oil and Gas10,269.0-4%-9%42,985.802.0%

22CA!DJQPAAL41CA: Goods: Goods for Processing (GP)112.4-7%13%433.7711.8%

23CA!DJQPAAM41CA: Goods: GP: Exports292.2-7%14%1,127.9812.1%

24CA!DJQPAAN41CA: Goods: GP: Imports179.8-7%14%694.2112.4%

25CA!DJQPAAO37CA: Goods: Repairs on Goods (RG)(74.5)19%3%(247.66)-9.0%

26CA!DJQPAAP37CA: Goods: RG: Exports22.611%-21%126.574.8%

27CA!DJQPAAQ37CA: Goods: RG: Imports97.017%-4%374.23-4.9%

28CA!DJQPAAR37CA: Goods: Goods Procured in Ports by Carriers (GPP)485.2-2%15%1,790.230.8%

29CA!DJQPAAS37CA: Goods: GPP: Exports660.3-5%14%2,504.910.5%

30CA!DJQPAAT25CA: Goods: GPP: Exports o/w Oil and Gas466.7-8%8%1,854.65-3.1%

31CA!DJQPAAU37CA: Goods: GPP: Imports175.1-11%10%714.68-0.2%

32CA!DJQPAAV25CA: Goods: GPP: Imports o/w Oil and Gas81.22%7%311.189.6%

33CA!DJQPAAW41CA: Goods: Nonmonetary Gold (NG)517.6-6%47%1,763.005.7%

34CA!DJQPAAX41CA: Goods: NG: Exports523.6-6%45%1,795.234.9%

35CA!DJQPAAY25CA: Goods: NG: Imports6.0-28%-33%32.24-31.1%

36CA!DJQPAAZ25CA: Export: Agricultural Products (AP)1,297.4-18%4%5,787.694.4%

37CA!DJQPABA25CA: Export: AP: Coffee bean185.8-27%-23%1,166.41-15.4%

38CA!DJQPABB25CA: Export: AP: Tea30.6-3%-18%131.11-6.1%

39CA!DJQPABC25CA: Export: AP: Spices91.6-49%-11%554.14-12.2%

40CA!DJQPABD25CA: Export: AP: Tobacco21.3-16%-11%93.4623.3%

41CA!DJQPABE25CA: Export: AP: Cacao Bean48.7-59%-48%443.377.8%

42CA!DJQPABF25CA: Export: AP: Shrimp and Prawns431.61%51%1,467.2144.9%

43CA!DJQPABG25CA: Export: AP: Other Agri Products487.8-10%5%1,932.00-0.8%

44CA!DJQPABH25CA: Export: Manufacture Products (MP)30,071.6-2%5%115,903.870.4%

45CA!DJQPABI25CA: Export: MP: Textile & Textile Products3,212.13%1%12,770.972.4%

46CA!DJQPABJ25CA: Export: MP: Processed Wood Products950.5-2%18%3,510.3911.2%

47CA!DJQPABK25CA: Export: MP: Palm Oils4,390.8-5%4%16,518.53-4.6%

48CA!DJQPABL25CA: Export: MP: Chemicals1,042.710%21%3,498.631.6%

49CA!DJQPABM25CA: Export: MP: Base Metal Products1,976.3-15%-14%8,614.18-8.4%

50CA!DJQPABN25CA: Export: MP: Electrical Apparatus,measuring instr & opt2,547.1-5%-5%10,716.15-4.3%

51CA!DJQPABO25CA: Export: MP: Cement4.6-52%-11%49.66150.0%

52CA!DJQPABP25CA: Export: MP: Paper and paper products944.5-1%3%3,732.14-2.5%

53CA!DJQPABQ25CA: Export: MP: Processed Rubber2,045.2-9%-16%9,306.38-12.7%

54CA!DJQPABT25CA: Export: MP: Other Manufacture Products12,118.33%19%43,330.086.3%

55CA!DJQPABR25CA: Export: MP: Oil Products839.4-15%-14%3,846.2513.8%

56CA!DJQPABS25CA: Export: MP: Liquefied Petroleum Products0.1-96%-97%10.54-21.6%

57CA!DJQPABU25CA: Export: Mining & Oth Sector Products (MOP)12,312.2-20%-17%58,838.33-6.0%

58CA!DJQPABV25CA: Export: MOP: Copper ore128.3-89%-76%2,999.562.9%

59CA!DJQPABW25CA: Export: MOP: Nickel ore88.0-84%-82%1,677.37-18.4%

60CA!DJQPABX25CA: Export: MOP: Coal5,563.0-8%-12%24,359.17-8.3%

61CA!DJQPABY25CA: Export: MOP: Bauxite46.5-87%-79%1,318.7879.2%

62CA!DJQPACC25CA: Export: MOP: Other Mining Products61.5-63%-59%591.5512.5%

63CA!DJQPACD25CA: Export: MOP: Other Sector Products2.4-52%-38%14.932.9%

64CA!DJQPABZ25CA: Export: MOP: Crude Oil2,336.4-23%-19%12,187.86-6.1%

65CA!DJQPACA25CA: Export: MOP: Natural Gas4,086.3-1%-2%15,689.12-6.3%

66CA!DJQPACB25CA: Export: MOP: Natural Gas o/w Liquefied Natural Gas1,218.0-1%-10%5,120.66-44.5%

67CA!DJQPACE25CA: Export: Unclassified Exports730.2-5%12%2,813.891.4%

68CA!DJQPACI25CA: Imports: Consumption Goods (CG)6,345.6-5%-3%26,879.703.6%

69CA!DJQPACJ25CA: Imports: CG: Foods & Bev,Primary,mainly for household372.122%76%1,394.3222.6%

70CA!DJQPACK25CA: Imports: CG: Foods & Bev,Processed,mainly for household549.6-45%19%2,812.5820.9%

71CA!DJQPACL25CA: Imports: CG: Passenger Motor Cars246.334%-36%1,171.51-34.7%

72CA!DJQPACM25CA: Imports: CG: Transport Equipment, Non-industrial90.2-30%38%383.4910.9%

73CA!DJQPACN25CA: Imports: CG: Durable Consumer Goods333.3-13%1%1,624.974.2%

74CA!DJQPACO25CA: Imports: CG: Semi-Durable Consumer Goods472.0-9%-1%2,150.7811.3%

75CA!DJQPACP25CA: Imports: CG: Non-Durable Consumer Goods456.8-13%-6%2,154.699.6%

76CA!DJQPACQ25CA: Imports: CG: Fuel and Lubricants, Processed, Oil Products3,714.87%-8%14,736.640.1%

77CA!DJQPACR25CA: Imports: CG: Goods not Elsewhere Specified110.5-38%18%450.7254.0%

78CA!DJQPACS25CA: Imports: Raw Materials & Auxiliary Goods (RM)29,395.2-7%-7%128,415.35-1.1%

79CA!DJQPACT25CA: Imports: RM: Food & Bev,Primary,m