Efektifitas Kebijakan Moneter

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@e` =MIMDVBIBVEX DM@BNEDEO GKOMVMP

E/ Vkaed ]d}p Xve`babvex Gkomvmp Xmvbes dm`bnedeo reol fbaed}deo kamj smgmpbovej jep}x gmgbabdb veplmv feo}d}peo dm`mpjexbaeo/ Jea bob smovbol! }ov}d gmol}d}p eve} xmèleb eh}eo!esedej dm`bnedeo vmpxm`}v `mpjexba eve} vbfed/ Feaeg smpmdkokgbeo`m`mpese bofdevkp reol `bexeore fbl}oedeo }ov}d gmobaeb dm`bnedeo gkomvmp efeaej >5/ N}gaej ]eol @mpmfep *N]@"0/ Aen} boiaexb reol h}d}s pmofej vmpdmofeab8/ X}d} `}ole sefe vboldev reol |enep 6/ Obaeb v}dep p}sbej reol pmeabxvbx! feo=/ Mdxsmdvexb+jepeseo gexrepedev vmpjefes gkomvmp

Fepb dmabge bofbdevkp vmpxm`}v! jeore N]@ reol vbfed fesev fbgkobvkp feofbpexedeo aeox}ol kamj gexrepedev! xmgmovepe bv} bofbdevkp okgkp 0 xegsebfmoleo =! pmaevbi fesev fbabjev feo fbpexedeo aeolx}ol kamj gexrepedev/Fmoleo eaexeo bob! `mpbd}v bob edeo fbnmaexdeo xmhepe pboldex fepb dmmgsevbofbdevkp vmpxm`}v/

Aen} Boiaexb

@elb f}obe smpèodeo aen} boiaexb reol vbollb edeo gmobg`}deo dmx}abveo èlb@eod }ov}d gmolmpejdeo feoe gexrepedev! depmoe fmoleo boiaexb reolvbollb vmpxm`}v! vboldev `}ole pbba *`}ole okgboea'boiaexb" edeo gmo}p}o!xmjbolle gmol}peolb dmbolboeo gexrepedev }ov}d gmorbgseo dmdereeoorefeaeg spkf}d'spkf}d smpèodeo/

Fegsed xmaeon}vore efeaej! `}ole pbba reol gmo}p}o `bae fbèofboldeovboldev `}ole pbba fb a}ep omlmpb edeo gmgbh} aepbore feoe gexrepedev dm a}ep omlmpb! depmoe fbpexedeo gexrepedev am`bj gmol}ov}oldeo gmorbgseofeoeore fb a}ep omlmpb/

Dmf}e fegsed boiaexb fbevex edeo gmormè`deo Smp̀ eodeo dmd}peoleofeoe reol `mpexea fepb gexrepedev! feo bob `mpepvb dmgegs}eo @eod feaeggmormfbedeo feoe }ov}d boymxvexb n}le v}p}v `mpd}peol! edbèvore aen}smpv}g`}jeo spkf}dxb feo mdkokgb n}le edeo gmaegèv/

Xmaebo bv}! boiaexb reol vbollb n}le edeo gmgbh} dmvbfedsexvbeo feaeg èorededvbybvex mdkokgb gexrepedev! dj}x}xore feaeg jea smpmoheoeeo feoksmpexbkoea smp}xejeeo! vmpgex}d feaeg smpèodeo/

@ejeo D}abej Mdkokgb Gkomvmp ‘ Epbx @/ Xmvre|eo =8



Xmaege smpbkfm 5223 x/f 0338! dbompne bofbdevkp Boiaexb bob efeaej >

Legèp =/5/ Smpdmgèoleo Boiaexb fb Bofkomxbe

X}d} @}ole

Xmaebo reol vmaej xmpbol fbnmaexdeo xm`ma}gore! èj|e fepb xbxb gexrepedevvbollbore x}d} `}ole gmgeol edeo gmoegèj dmbolboeo gexrepedev }ov}dgmorbgseo feoeore fb èod! oeg}o fb xbxb aebo! vbollbore x}d} `}olevmpxm`}v edeo gmol}peolb obev f}obe }xeje }ov}d gmoleg b̀a dpmfbv èlbsmolmgèoleo }xejeore/ Edbèvore feoe reol x}fej vmpaen}p gex}d dmsmpèodeo fmoleo efeore `}ole vbollb vmpxm`}v! vbfed fesev vmpxea}pdeo feo

gmobg`}adeo smpgexeaejeo èp} èlb smpèodeo! redob! Dmgeoe feoegexrepedev vmpxm`}v edeo fbxea}pdeo ; Ese`bae gexeaej bob vbfed xmlmpegmofesev neaep dma}ep! gede smpèodeo vmpeoheg edeo gmoljefesb gexeaejabd}bfbvex feo vmov} xene gexeaej smoljexbaeo fepb `}ole reol xmjep}xorefbsmpkamj/

Fmoleo smonmaexeo reol xmfbdbv `mp`mfe! pmofejore vboldev `}ole gmgeoledeo gmofkpkol èored smaed} f}obe }xeje }ov}d gmoleg`ba feoe fbsmpèodeo! oeg}o depmoe pmofejore vboldev `}ole vmpxm`}v! eseaelb `baefbèofboldeo fmoleo vboldev `}ole fb a}ep omlmpb4 gexrepedev edeo am`bjvmpvepbd gmorbgseo feoeore fb smpèodeo a}ep omlmpb! xmjbolle smpèodeo

feaeg omlmpb edeo dmd}peoleo feoe reol xmfeol fb`}v}jdeo kamj f}obe}xeje/ Fegsed am`bj ne}j aelb efeaej vmpjegèvore boymxvexb reol vmpnefb fbxmdvkp bof}xvpb depmoe dmx}abveo gmofesevdeo feoe! xmjbolle spkf}dxb edeogmaegèv/


Aegsbpeo 5 Feve feo Yepbe`ma Smomabvbeo

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Smpbkfm 5223 ' 0338

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5 = 2 58 5< 05 0= 02 88 8< 65 6= 62 =8

Smpbkfm 5223 ' 0338

Vd/@}ol

Xmaege smpbkfm 5223 x/f 0338! dbompne bofbdevkp x}d} `}ole bob efeaej >

Legèp =/0/ Smpdmgèoleo X}d} @}ole fb Bofkomxbe

Obaeb V}dep P}sbej

Obaeb v}dep reol xve`ba vmov} edeo am`bj gmg`mpb bdabg dmsexvbeo èlb xmg}esmae} }xeje! vmpgex}d xmdvkp smpèodeo! f}obe }xeje feo gexrepedev/ Obaebv}dep p}sbej reol pmofej xeev bob fesev fbnefbdeo xeev reol èbd f}obe }xejereol `mkpbmovexb mdxskp! feo bob fesev gmgbh} smoboldeveo smpgboveeo dpmfbvfepb f}obe }xeje }ov}d gmaeon}vdeo feo gmoboldevdeo spkf}d mdxskpore/Fmoleo dmnefbeo bob vmov} edeo gmol}ov}oldeo f}obe smpèodeo/

Smormx}ebeo obaeb v}dep reol vmpaea} hmsev edeo xeolev gmp}lbdeo depmoe jeabob fesev gmofkpkol `mplmpedore eabpeo feoe gexrepedev dm a}ep omlmpb/Fmoleo fmgbdbeo eovepe obaeb v}dep feo bobdevkp dm`bnedeo gkomvmp aebooregmgbabdb j}`}oleo reol xeolev mpev! dj}x}xore èlb dm`bnedeo smgmpbovejreol xmfeol fbvmgs}j }ov}d gmoxve`badeo feo gmoboldevdeo smpv}g`}jeomdkokgb/

@ejeo D}abej Mdkokgb Gkomvmp ‘ Epbx @/ Xmvre|eo ==



Mdxsmdvexb+jepeseo Gexrepedev

Gmxdbs}o am b̀j x}abv }ov}d fb}d}p! oeg}o mdxsmdvexb gexrepedev g}aebgmofesev smpjevbeo `mxep feaeg peolde smaedxeoeeo dm`bnedeo gkomvmp fbBofkomxbe/ Mdxsmdvexb }g}gore vmpnefb gmaea}b mdxsmdvexb gexrepedev

vmpjefes vboldev boiaexb feo mdxsmdvexb vmpjefes obaeb v}dep/

Mdxsmdvexb gexrepedev reol `mpam`bjeo vmpjefes `mxepeo boiaexb edeogmofkpkol xmgedbo vbollbore jeple'jeple! xmjbolle edeo gmol}peolbvboldev dkox}gxb feo fere xebol spkf}d feaeg omlmpb reol edeo mdxskp/

Xmgmovepe bv}! mdxsmdvexb gexrepedev reol omlevbi vmpjefes obaeb v}dep edeo`mpfegsed sefe gmo}p}oore dmsmphereeo gexrepedev sefe geve }eolp}sbej! xmjbolle fesev gmgbh} gmoleabpore feoe gexrepedev dma}ep omlmpb/Ese`bae jea bob vmpnefb! gede xmsmpvb vmaej fbnmaexdeo fb èlbeo e|ea è` bob!gede smpèodeo edeo dmx}abveo feaeg gmoljbgs}o feoe gexrepedev reol

xeolev fbsmpa}deo }ov}d dmsmpa}eo boymxvexb f}obe }xeje/

Fmoleo smonmaexeo dmmgsev bofbdevkp gkomvmp vmpxm`}v fb evex fesevfbxbgs}adeo èj|e xve`babvex feo smpv}g`}jeo mdkokgb Bofkomxbe! xeolevaejfbsmolep}jb kamj dmmgsev bofbdevkp vmpxm`}v! xmjbolle dm`bnedeo gkomvmp reolfbvmgs}j smgmpbovej edeo jea bv}! jep}x gmg`mpbdeo jexba reol èbd! feaeg epvbvmpdmofeab! |enep! feo pmeabxvbx/

5/ Xvpevmlb Dm`bnedeo Gkomvmp

]ov}d gmofesevdeo bofbdevkp gkomvmp xmsmpvb fbxrepevdeo fb evex! smgmpbovejreol feaeg jea bob kvkpbvex gkomvmp! gmgmpa}deo xvpevmb reol vmsev feoxmx}eb fmoleo dkofbxb fb Bofkomxbe

Xmhepe }g}g! xvpevmlb gkomvmp reol fesev fbsbabj eovepe aebo efeaej >

5/ Xvepvmlb Dm`bnedeo gkomvmp akollep *Mexr Gkomvepr Skabhr" eve}Xvpevmlb dm`bnedeo gkomvmp dmvev *Vbljv Gkomvepr Skabhr"

Dm b̀nedeo gkomvmp akollep edeo fbvmgs}j }ov}d gmollbevdeo dmgèabsmpmdkokgbeo reol xmfeol amx}! fmoleo hepe gmgsmpg}fej feo

gmoegèj n}gaej }eol `mpmfep! elep smpgboveeo dkox}gxb oebd

spkf}dxb oebd/

Oeg}o fmgbdbeo feaeg smpmdkokgbeo vmp`}de feo xbxvmg fmybxe `mèx!dm b̀nedeo gkomvmp reol akollep fesev gmobg`}adeo fegsed xmsmpvblegèp `mpbd}v bob/




Legèp =/6/ Fegsed Dm`bnedeo Gkomvmp Akollep

Xmgmovepe bv}! dm`bnedeo gkomvmp dmvev edeo gmg`mpb fegsedxmèabdore! vmp}vege feaeg peolde gmpmfeg dmoebdeo jeple eve} boiaexbreol `mpam b̀jeo! xmjbolle vmdeoeo vmpjefes ompehe smgèrepeo`mpd}peol depmoe spkf}d feaeg omlmpb dmgèab fesev `mpxebol! gmxdbs}ofmoleo dm b̀nedeo bob edeo `mpfegsed s}ae sefe gmo}p}oore

smpv}g`}jeo mdkokgb! depmoe n}gaej }eol reol `mpmfep fbd}peolb! reol`mpepvb smpgboveeo n}le `mpd}peol spkf}dxb `mpd}peol/

Xm`}ej fbamge gmgeol edeo vmpnefb! vevdeae smpmdkokgbeo Bofkomxbegmoljefesb f}e dkofbxb reol `mpxegeeo! redob amx}ore mdkokgb feovmpvmdeoore ompehe smgèrepeo eve} gmamgejore fere xebol spkf}dakdea/ Smompeseo dm`bnedeo gkomvmp akollep gmgeol edeogmormaegevdeo mdkokgb reol amx}! oeg}o edeo gmgsmpsepej dkofbxbompehe smgèrepeo Bofkomxbe…xmgmovepe smompeseo dm`bnedeo gkomvmp dmvev edeo gmormaegevdeo ompehe smgèrepeo feo geobddeo ferexebol! oeg}o edeo `mpfegsed sefe gmo}p}oore+amx}ore smpmdkokgbeo/

Dea} x}fej fmgbdbeo! dm`bnedeo geoe reol edeo fbsbabj ;

Fmoleo fbamge vmpxm`}v! smgmpbovej dmg}fbeo gmgeol fbv}ov}v }ov}dfesev gmpeg} dm`bnedeo reol seabol sex feo gmomvesdeo xdeae spbkpbvexsmgmhejeo gexeaej reol efe! xmjbolle amx}ore smpmdkokgbeo fesevfbevexb feo fere xebol spkf}d mdxskp Bofkomxbe n}le gmgèbd! feo bobgmgeol `}deo smdmpneeo reol g}fej/

@ejeo D}abej Mdkokgb Gkomvmp ‘ Epbx @/ Xmvre|eo =<

Dm`bnedeo

Gkomvmp Akollep

N]@ Gmoboldev Oebdore Dkox}gxb )

Smpgboveeo Gexr/

Gmgbh} Dmoebdeo

Jeple + Boiaexb

Gmol}peolb Fere

Xebol Spkf}d FO

Ompehe Smgèrepeo

AO Vmpvmdeo

Fmybxe OmlepeGmo}p}o

@}ole pbba

V}p}o

Feoe gexrepedev

dm A}ep Omlmpb



0/ Hk}ovmphrhabhea Gkomvepr Skabhr eve} Ehhkgkfevbym Gkomvepr Skabhr

Hk}ovmphrhabhea Gkomvepr Skabhr

]ov}d gmgsmpa}oed dkon}olv}p+oebd v}p}oore smpmdkokgbeo! smgmpbovejsmpa} xmhepe edvbi geaed}deo bovmpymoxb fb sexep }eol! redob fmoleogmaed}deo mdxseoxb gkomvmp fbxeev smpmdkokgbeo gmolejefesb gexepmxmxb feo gmaed}deo dkoxvpedxb gkomvmp xeev smpmdkokgbeo gmoleaegb`kkg+aen} reol vmpaea} hmsev/ Smonmaexeo bob fesev fbabjev sefe legèp `mpbd}v >

Legèp =/=/ Fegsed Dm`bnedeo Hk}ovmphrhabhea

Am b̀j nmaexore! xeev edeo smpmdkokgbeo hmofmp}ol gmoleaegb pmxmxb!gede smgmpbovej jep}x xmlmpe gmaedxeoedeo dm`bnedeo gkomvmp reolam`bj mdxseoxbi fmoleo v}n}eo gmoboldevdeo n}gaej }eol `mpmfep fbgexrepedev/ Fmoleo fmgbdbeo! jexpev gexrepedev eve} smpgboveeodkox}gxb gexrepedev fbjepesdeo edeo gmoboldev! reol `mpepvb edeogmg`mpb fkpkoleo èlb f}obe }xeje }ov}d gmoboldevdeo spkf}dxbore/Sefe lbabpeoore! dkofbxb bob edeo gmofkpkol v}g`}jore mdkokgb fbBofkomxbe

Xmgmovepe bv}! fb xeev smpmdkokgbeo gmoleaegb `kkg! reol hmofmp}olgmgbh} oebdore jeple'jeple eve} boiaexb! smgmpbovej smpa} xmlmpe

gmompesdeo dm`bnedeo gkomvmp reol dmvev! fmoleo v}n}eo gmgsmpaegèvfeo gmol}peolb vboldev dkox}gxb feo smpgboveeo gexrepedev! xmjbolleaen} smpmdkokgbeo fesev fbsmpaegèv/

@ejeo D}abej Mdkokgb Gkomvmp ‘ Epbx @/ Xmvre|eo =:

` 7 vbfed efe dm`bnedeo

`5 7 efe dm`bnedeo

hk}ovmphrhabhea



Ehhkgkfevbhm Gkomvmpr Skabhr

Smofesev dmf}e gmolevedeo! èj|e xmèbdore smgmpbovej gmoljbofepbbovmpymoxb }ov}d gmgsmpa}oed dkon}olv}p smpmdkokgbeo reol vmpnefb! feogmg b̀epdeoore vmpnefb xmhepe eaegb/ Smofesev bob fbfexepdeo sefe

smgbdbpeo >5/ Mdxsmdvexb gexerepedev fesev gmoleaejdeo fegsed fepb yepbe`ma'yepbe`ma gkomvmp aeboore/ Fmoleo deve aebo! gexrepedev vmaejgmoeovbxbsexb xmvbes dm b̀nedeo reol edeo fbvmpesdeo kamjgexerepedev

0/ Dm`bnedeo smgmpbovej vbfed fesev gmg`mpb fegsed xmhepe aeolx}olfeo xmlmpe/ Xmèleb hkovkj4 dm`bnedeo gkomvmp akollep reolmdxseoxbi reol fbvmpesdeo xeev mdkokgb amx}+pmxmxb! vbfed edeo xmlmpedmabjeveo fegsedore xeev bv} n}le! oeg}o `}v}j |edv} feo bv} fesevvmpnefb n}xvp} dmvbde smpmdkokgbeo vmaej gmoheseb vejes `kkg/ @mlbv}s}ae dm`bnedeo gkomvmp dmvev+dkoxvpedxb reol fbvmpesdeo }ov}d

gmolevexb dkofbxb `kkg! èp} edeo vmpexe fegsedore n}xvp} xeevmdkokgb xmfeol pmxmxb/

Edbèvore efeaej! `}deo gexeaej pmxmxb feo `kkg reol vmpevexb!vmvesb n}xvp} dmf}e dkofbxb mdkokgb bv} edeo `mpvegèj sepej! xmsmpvbvmpabjev sefe legèp `mpbd}v bob/

Legèp =/9/ Fegsed Dm`bnedeo Ehhkgkfevbym

Kamj depmoe bv}! vbfed `bnedxeoe deae} smgmpbovej gmaed}deobovmpymoxb fmoleo dm`bnedeo gkomvmp xeev vmpnefb pmxmxb eve} `kkg/@bepdeo dmf}e dmnefbeo bv} `mpaeolx}ol ese efeore/ Deae}s}osmgmpbovej edeo gmgèov}! aed}deo fmoleo gmormbgeoldeo n}gaej}eol `mpmfep fmoleo dm`}v}jeo xeev bv}/




@/ Mimdvbibvex Dm`bnedeo Gkomvmp

Reol fbgedx}f fmoleo mimdvbibvex dm b̀nedeo gkomvmp efeaej! xmne}j geoedm`bnedeo gkomvmp reol fbvmgs}j smgmpbovej *eses}o `mov}dore"! gmg`mpbfegsed skxbvbi èlb smpmdkokgbeo feo gexrepedev! feaeg epvb >

e/ fesev gmoboldevdeo smpv}g`}jeo mdkokgb`/ fesev gmoboldevdeo dmxmnejvmpeeo gexrepedevh/ fesev gmoboldevdeo dmxmgseveo dmpnef/ fesev gmoboldevdeo smompbgeeo fmybxe omlepem/ xmpve gmg`mpb smolep}j sefe dm`bnedeo gedpk aeboore

Vmkpb reol gmg`bhepedeo gmolmoeb mimdvbibvex dm`bnedeo gkomvmp bob fbeovepeoreefeaej >5/ Vmkpb Oev}pea Pevm Jrskvjmxbx! reol smphere èj|e dm`bnedeo jeore edeo

mimdvbi feo gmg`mpb fegsed feaeg neolde smofmd xene! oeg}o vbfed edeomimdvbi }ov}d neolde seoneol

0/ Vmkpb Pevbkoea Mzsmhvevbko Jrskvjmxbx! reol smphere èj|e èbd feaeg neolde smofmd ge}s}o feaeg neolde seoneol! dm`bnedeo gkomvmp vbfed edeomimdvbi

]ov}d gmg`mpb smgejegeo reol am b̀j èbd gmolmoeb dmf}e vmkpb vmpxm`}v!smpjevbdeo hkovkj dex}x `mpbd}v bob/

Xmsmpvb vmaej fbnmaexdeo xm`ma}gore! }ov}d gmoboldevdeo edvbybvex mdkokgbgmaea}b smoboldeveo dkox}gxb gexrepedev! smgmpbovej edeo gmomgs}jdm`bnedeo mdxseoxbi *dm`bnedeo gkomvmp akollep"/ Dmoebdeodkox}gxb+smpgboveeo gexrepedev bob edeo gmofkpkol dmoebdeo jeple'jeple!

reol èlb spkf}xmo dmoebdeo jeple bob edeo gmoebddeo dm}ov}oleoore!xmjbolle gmofkpkol spkf}xmo }ov}d gmoebddeo spkf}dxbore fmoleo jepeseodm}ov}oleo reol fbsmpkamj edeo xmgedbo `mxep/

]ov}d gmoboldevdeo spkf}dxbore vmpxm`}v! spkf}xmo edeo `mp}xejegmoegèj vmoele dmpne fmoleo hepe gmg`mpbdeo vboldev }sej reol am`bjvbollb fepb xm`ma}gore! elep gexrepedev `mpxmfbe gmoe|epdeo vmoeledmpneore am`bj èored aelb/ Dmoebdeo }sej okgboea bob `bexeore vbfed edeoam`bj vbollb fepb dmoebdeo jeple reol fbobdgevb spkf}xmo! xmjbolle }sej pbbareol fbvmpbge smdmpne xm`moepore gmo}p}o/ Gmxdbs}o fmgbdbeo! gexrepedevvmves `mpxmfbe gmoegèj ve|epeo vmoele dmpneore depmoe gmpexe èj|e

}sej reol fbvmpbgeore oebd *gkomr baa}xbko"/

Fepb dex}x fb evex!

Gmo}p}v vmkpb Oev}pea Pevm Jrskvjmxbx! dm`bnedeo mdxseoxbi smgmpbovej vmpxm`}vfeaeg neolde smofmd vmp`}dvb vmaej gegs} gmollebpejdeo smpmdkokgbeofmoleo gmoboldevdeo dkox}gxb gexrepedev reol `mpaeon}v fmoleo

@ejeo D}abej Mdkokgb Gkomvmp ‘ Epbx @/ Xmvre|eo 93



gmoboldevore spkf}dxb/ Oeg}o! feaeg neolde seoneol gmoboldevore dkox}gxbfeo dmlbeveo spkf}dxb reol gmoboldev vmpxm`}v xmhepe `mpaejeo edeo dmgèab dmdkofbxb xmg}ae depmoe feaeg neolde seoneol dmoebdeo jeple reol vmpnefb edeog}aeb gmg`mpevdeo gexrepedev xmjbolle hmofmp}ol edeo gmol}peolbdkox}gxbore! vmpam`bj aelb gexrepedev+smdmpne g}aeb gmorefepb èj|e }sej pbba

gmpmde v}p}o! feaeg epvb dmoebdeo }sej pbba reol gmpmde smpkamj g}aeb vbfedfesev gmolbgèolb dmoebdeo jeple èpeol'èpeol reol gmpmde dkox}gxb/

Deae}s}o dmg}fbeo gmpmde gmo}ov}v dmoebdeo }sej reol am`bj vbollb aelb!oeg}o spkf}xmo edeo g}aeb gmpexe dm}ov}oleoore `mpd}peol! xmjbollegmol}peolb dmbolboeoore }ov}d gmgsmpa}ex eve} gmoegèj spkf}dxb!xmjbolle feaeg neolde seoneol dmlbeveo spkf}dxb feosmpmdkokgbeo edeodmgèab gmamgej xmsmpvb xmg}ae/

Xmgmovepe bv}! gmo}p}v vmkpb Pevbkoea Mzsmhvevbko Jrskvjmxbx! dmxefepeogexrepedev edeo }sej pbba x}fej g}oh}a am b̀j e|ea! xmjbolle feaeg neolde

smofmds}o dm b̀nedeo smgmpbovej reol mdxseoxbi vmpxm`}v x}fej vbfed edeogmg`mpb fegsed ese'ese/ Vmkpb bob smphere! èj|e gexrepedev xmned e|eax}fej xefep èj|e }sej pbba gmpmde èjdeo gmo}p}o gmxdbs}o xmhepe okgboeagmoleaegb dmoebdeo! xmjbolle gexrepedev+smdmpne xmned e|ea x}fej vbfed`mpxmfbe gmoegèj ve|epeo vmoele dmpne gmpmde/ Fmoleo fmgbdbeo spkf}xmo

n}le vbfed fesev gmoegèj spkf}dxbore depmoe vbfed `mpjexba gmg`}n}dgexrepedev }ov}d `mdmpne am`bj èred aelb/

Deae} vkj gexrepedev `mpxmfbe `mdmpne am`bj èored! gmpmde edeo gmo}ov}vdmoebdeo }sej reol am`bj vbollb aelb! feo bob `mpepvb dm}ov}oleo spkf}xmo edeoxmgedbo `mpd}peol xmjbolle spkf}xmo n}le vbfed vmpvepbd aelb }ov}d gmoebddeo

spkf}dxbore/ @bae jea bob vmpnefb èbd feaeg neolde smofmd ge}s}o feaeg neoldeseoneol! smpv}g`}jeo mdkokgb vbfed edeo smpoej vmpnefb/

Dj}x}x smofesev fepb vmkpb Pevbkoea Mzsmhvevbko Jrskvjmxbx bob! gexbj vmp}xvmpnefb fbxd}xb reol gmofeaeg gmolmoeb vbfed efeore fegsed fepb dm`bnedeosmgmpbovej vmpxm`}v/ Smofesev reol smpvege vbfed smphere èj|e gexrepedevedeo `mlbv} seofeb feo vmabvbore edeo smp}èjeo feo smpdmgèoleosmpmdkokgbeo edbèv dm`bnedeo smgmpbovej vmpxm`}v! xmjbolle xm`ma}gore vmaejgmoleovbxbsexb xmvbes dm`bnedeo smgmpbovej reol efe/

Smofesev aeboore xeolev smphere èj|e gexrepedev! gmaea}b dmgen}eo

vmdokaklb! `mpèleb gmfbe reol efe! xmpve fmoleo xmgedbo gmpeveore bag}smolmvej}eo! edeo fmoleo hmsev fesev gmgejegb ese reol edeo vmpnefbfmoleo dm`bnedeo smgmpbovej! xmjbolle gexrepedev edeo gmaed}deo eovbxbsexbxmned e|ea vmpjefes fegsed dm`bnedeo smgmpbovej vmpxm`}v/ Fmoleo fmgbdbeofegsed reol fbjepesdeo vmpnefb kamj smgpbovej am`bj xmpbol lelea! depmoegexrepedev vmaej vej} feo gmoleovbxbsexb xm`ma}gore/




Dmvmpdebveo dm`bnedeo gkomvmp fmoleo dm`bnedeo gedpk aeboore

Reol smpa} fbdmvej}b! èj|e feaeg smpmdkokgbeo xm`}ej omlepe! dm b̀nedeogkomvmp gmp}sedeo dmxev}eo reol vbfed fesev fbsbxejdeo fmoleo dm`bnedeo'dm`bnedeo gedpk smgmpbovej aeboore! xmsmpvb dm`bnedeo ibxdea! dm`bnedeo mdkokgb

a}ep omlmpb! ge}s}o dm`bnedeo xmdvkp pbba aeboore/

Fmoleo fmgbdbeo eses}o sbabjeo dm b̀nedeo gkomvmp reol fbvmgs}j jep}xaejgmgbabdb dmvmpdebveo feo gmof}d}ol xexepeo feo v}n}eo fepb dm`bnedeo mdkokgbgedpk aeboore! xmjbolle xmhepe `mpxege fesev gmg`mpbdeo fegsed reolskxbvbi èlb dmxmnejvmpeeo gexrepedev/

Xmèleb hkovkj! dm`bnedeo gkomvmp reol mdxseoxbi gmgeol edeo gmofkpkolsmpv}g`}jeo mdkokgb fb xev} xbxb! oeg}o fb xbxb aeboore! dm`bnedeo bob edeogmormè`deo dmoebdeo jeple'jeple *boiaexb"! xmjbolle edeo gmg`mpevdeoompehe smgèrepeo a}ep omlmpb depmoe spkf}d feaeg omlmpb edeo dmjbaeoleo

fere xebolore fb sexep a}ep omlmpb! reol `mpedbèv gmo}p}oore smompbgeeofmybxe omlepe/ Kamj depmoe bv} smpa} fbbgèolb dm b̀nedeo xmdvkp a}ep omlmpbdkof}xbi reol fesev gmolevexb jea vmpxm`}v! xmsmpvb gbxeaore fmoleo gmg`mpbdmg}fejeo mdxskp feo bovmoxb mdxskp aeboore/

@mlbv} s}ae fmoleo dm`bnedeo gkomvmp dmvev reol fbvmgs}j }ov}d v}n}eogmo}p}odeo vboldev boiaexb! edeo gmg`mpb fegsed omlevbi sefe xmdvkp pbba feaeggmoboldevdeo spkf}dxbore/ Feaeg dex}x bob! fbsmpa}deo f}d}oleo dm b̀nedeomdkokgb gedpk aeboore elep spkf}dxb vmves fesev fbvboldevdeo/ Dm`bnedeomdkokgb gedpk aebo reol smpa} fbaed}deo fbeovepeore fmoleo gmg`mpbdeoboxmovbi eve} dmpboleo sened èlb spkf}xmo! eve} fmoleo boxmovbi'boxmovbi aeboore

xmsmpvb smomveseo jeple dj}x}x }ov}d èjeo èdep bof}xvpb feo dm`bnedeodmg}fejeo smpbnboeo }xeje gbxeaore/

Fmoleo f}d}oleo `mpèleb dm`bnedeo gedpk aeboore vmpxm`}v! dm`bnedeo gkomvmp reol fbneaeodeo smgmpbovej edeo fesev gmoheseb xexepeo feo fesevfbgbobgeadeo fegsed omlevbiore/ Kamj depmoe bv} fbsmpa}deo xm`}ej peg}eo fepb`mpèleb dm`bnedeo gkomvmp feo dm`bnedeo gedpk aeboore! xmfmgbdbeo p}se! elep `mpèleb dm`bnedeo vmpxm`}v vbfed xeabol `mpvmoveoleo feo n}xvp} xeabolgmamoldesb feo gmof}d}ol dm`mpjexbaeoore! feaeg epvb neoleo xegseb reolvmpnefb efeaej >† Jeple'jeple xmgedbo oebd†

Fere xebol spkf}d feaeg omlmpb xmgdebo gmo}p}o† Fmybxe omlepe xmgedbo `mpd}peol† Obaeb v}dep p}sbej xmgedbo gmamgej† Fere `mab gexrepedev xmgedbo amgej† Spkf}dxb oexbkoea xmgdebo `mpd}peol† Smoleoll}peo xmgedbo gmoboldev† Smpmdkokgbeo xmgedbo amx}! feo† Dmxmnejvmpeeo gexrepedev xmgedbo gmg`}p}d




Smolep}j iedvkp mdvmpoea *A}ep Omlmpb" Vmpjefes Dm b̀nedeo Gkomvmp Bofkomxbe

Xeev bob! vbfed efe xev}s}o omlepe reol fesev jbf}s feo `mpvejeo veose

`mpj}`}oleo fmoleo omlepe reol aeboore/ Eaexeo }vegeore efeaej èj|ex}ev} omlepe vbfed fesev gmgmo}jb xmg}e dm`}v}jeoore xmofbpb depmoe vbfedxmvbes x}g`mp fere reol fb`}v}jdeo! efe feo fbgbabdb fb omlepe vmpxm`}v/

Xmèleb hkovkj! vbfed xmvbes omlepe gmgbabdb vegèol gbore! xmjbollegmg`}v}jdeo gbored fepb omlepe smoljexba gbored }ov}d gmgmo}jb dm`}v}jeogbored fb omlepe vmpxm`}v/ @mlbv} s}ae omlepe smoljexba gbored *Omlepe'omlepeEpe` feo Vbg}p Vmolej bxeaore"! vbfed gmgbabdb spkf}d'spkf}d smpveobeoxmjbolle smpa} gmolmdxskp fepb omlepe elpepbx aeboore/ Fmgbdbeo xmvmp}xore/

Evex fexep bv}aej dmvmpleov}oleo x}ev} omlepe vmpjefes omlepe aeboore xmaea}

efe! gmxdbs}o fmoleo obaeb bovmoxbvex reol vbfed xege! vmpleov}ol fepb xm`mpesegen} edvbybvex mdkokgb omlepe vmpxm`}v/ Xmèleb hkovkj omlepe Egmpbdegmgeol vmaej xeolev gen} feo `mxep vpeoxedxb mdkokbore xmjbolle feaeg`m`mpse jea xmsmpvb obaeb v}dep feo vboldev `}ole gbxeaore! xmhepe }g}g gmonefbeh}eo èlb omlepe'omlepe aeboore! vmpgex}d kamj Bofkomxbe/


Fbxvpb`}vbko ki ]/X/ Mzskpvx ehpkxx Hk}ovpbmxFbxvpb`}vbko ki ]/X/ Mzskpvx ehpkxx Hk}ovpbmx*bo `baabkox ki &"




Fbxvpb`}vbko ki Fbxvpb`}vbko ki

]/X/ Mzskpvx eof ]/X/ Mzskpvx eof BgskpvxBgskpvx

Hkgsepbol Bovmpmxv Pevmx Egkol H}ppmohbmxHkgsepbol Bovmpmxv Pevmx Egkol H}ppmohbmx

Eoo}eab~mf Xjkpv'Vmpg Bovmpmxv Pevmx egkol Hk}ovpbmx bo 0335



@m`mpese legèp fb evex gmo}on}ddeo èj|e `mxepore obaeb mdxskp omlepeEgmpbde dm `mpèleb omlepe fesev gmonefb eaexeo gmolese dm`bnedeo gkomvmp feo dm b̀nedeo gedpk aeboore fb Egmpbde edeo `mpfegsed sefe dm`bnedeogkomvmp feo dm`bnedeo aebo fb omlepe'omlepe aeboore! vmpgex}d Bofkomxbe/

Legèp fb evex n}le gmo}on}ddeo èj|e `mp`mfeeo vboldev `}ole fb `mpèlebomlepe vmpxm`}v edeo gmgsmolep}jb aea} abovex feoe fbeovepe omlepe'omlepevmpxm`}v/ Vboldev `}ole reol vbollb *exeadeo vbfed fbbd}vb fmoleo vboldev boiaexbreol vbollb"! edeo gmol}ofeol feoe exbol }ov}d gex}d! xmjbolle fesevgmollebpejdeo edvbybvex mdkokgb fb omlepe vmpxm`}v/

Nefb nmaexaej! èj|e dm`bnedeo gkomvmp reol fbvmgs}j kamj smgmpbovejBofkomxbe n}le edeo fbsmolep}jb kamj dm`bnedeo gkomvmp omlepe aebo! dj}x}xoreEgmpbde/ Vboldep `}ole reol fbvmvesdeo @eod Bofkomxbe! sefe }g}gore xmaea}gmoleh} sefe x}d} `}ole reol fbvmvesdeo kamj @eod Xmovpea Egmpbde/ @mlbv}s}ae dm`bnedeo }ov}d gmoxve`badeo obaeb v}dep p}sbej xmaea} fbdebvdeo fmoleo obaeb

fkaaep Egmpbde/

Esedej jea bob xeaej ;

Vmov} xene vbfed! xmaege smolep}j a}ep omlmpb vmpxm`}v fesev fbdmakae fmoleoèbd feo n}xvp} fesev fbgeoieevdeo }ov}d dmsmovboleo smpmdkokgbeo omlepeBofkombxbe/ Xmoeleb hkovkj gmamgejore p}sbej fesev fbnefbdeo gkgmo reolèbd }ov}d gmoboldevdeo obaeb mdxskp feo gmoboldevdeo fmybxe omlepe/

Smolep}j mdxvmpoea n}le fesev feveol fepb mdvbybvex mdkokgb omlepe'omlepeaeboore/ Xmèleb hkovkj! mdkokgb Hboe reol v}g`}j a}ep `bexe vmaej

gmgsmolep}jb edvbybvex mdkokgb fb Bofkomxbe gmaea}b èoredore spkf}d'spkf}dfepb omlepe Hboe reol gex}d dm Bofkomxbe! xmjbolle `bae vbfed fesev fbeovbxbsexbfmoleo `mp̀ eleb dm b̀nedeo gkomvmp feo dm b̀nedeo aebo reol `mpsbjed sefespkf}xmo feo spkf}d akdea! gede edeo èored spkf}xmo feo spkf}d akdeagmoleaegb dmx}abveo fmoleo gex}dore spkf}d'spkf}d fepb Hboe reol vmpdmoeadpmevbi feo `mpjeple g}pej vmpxm`}v/

@ejeo D}abej Mdkokgb Gkomvmp ‘ Epbx @/ Xmvre|eo 9=

Efektifitas Kebijakan Moneter

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