Analisa Senoro

ANALISIS EKONOMI PLTGU SENORO 2 X 120 MW

Biaya Pembangkitan Energi Listri PLTGU Senoro 2 x 120 MW

KeteranganSuku Bunga

6% 9%Biaya Pembangunan ($/KW) 1050 1050Umur Operasi (Tahun) 25 25Kapasitas (KW) 240000 240000Biaya Bahan Bakar ($/KW) 0.046 0.046Biaya O&M ($/KW) 0.0049 0.0049Biaya Modal ($/KW) 0.01430 0.01760Biaya Total ($/KW) / LCOE 0.0657 0.0690Investasi (Juta $) 250 250Sumber : Studi Pembangunan PLTGU Senoro 2 x 120 MW, Tedy Rikusnandar. ITS 2009

Formula Perhitungan Biaya ModalANALISIS EKONOMI PLTGU SENORO 2 X 120 MW

DiketahuiBiaya Pembangkitan Energi Listri PLTGU Senoro 2 x 120 MW Faktor Kapasitas (m) 0.85

Suku Bunga Jam dalam Setahun (To) 876012% Biaya Total Investasi 250000000 i =

1050 Kapasitas Pembangkit 240000 n =25 Dicari Fs =

240000 Faktor suku bunga (Fs) 0.1270.046 Faktor penyusutan (fd) 0.024

0.0049 Biaya Modal (Ps) 1041.70.02120 Capital Cost (CC) 0.02120

0.0725 i =250 n =

Sumber : Studi Pembangunan PLTGU Senoro 2 x 120 MW, Tedy Rikusnandar. ITS 2009 Fd =

DiketahuiFaktor Kapasitas (m) 0.85Jam dalam Setahun (To) 8760Biaya Total Investasi 250000000 i =Kapasitas Pembangkit 240000 n =

Dicari Fs =Faktor suku bunga (Fs) 0.102Faktor penyusutan (fd) 0.024Biaya Modal (Ps) 1041.7Capital Cost (CC) 0.01760

i =n =

Fd =

DiketahuiFaktor Kapasitas (m) 0.85Jam dalam Setahun (To) 8760Biaya Total Investasi 250000000 i =Kapasitas Pembangkit 240000 n =

Dicari Fs =Faktor suku bunga (Fs) 0.078Faktor penyusutan (fd) 0.024Biaya Modal (Ps) 1041.7Capital Cost (CC) 0.01430

i =n =

Fd =

Capital Cost (CC)= ((Fs+Fd).Ps)/(m.To)

Fs=(i(1+i)^n)/((1+i)^n-1)

Fd=i/((1+i)^n-1)


Fs=(i(1+i)^n)/((1+i)^n-1)

Fd=i/((1+i)^n-1)


Fs=(i(1+i)^n)/((1+i)^n-1)

Fd=i/((1+i)^n-1)

Formula Perhitungan Biaya Modal Formula Perhitungan Biaya Bahan Bakar

DiketahuiPemakaian PLTGU Senoro 2 x 120 MW

Kebutuhan energi panas (kcal/tahun)12% Biaya Inv. 250000000 Energi listrik per tahun (kWh/tahun)25 Kap. 240000 Kebutuhan gas pertahun (mmscf)

0.127499969809508 Ps = 1041.66666666667 Kebutuhan gas 25 tahun (mmscf)

Energi Listrik per TahunKapasitas (kW)Faktor Daya (%)

4% Jam Pertahun (jam)25

0.024011962786455 Biaya Bahan BakarEnergi Listrik PertahunKebutuhan gas per tahunHarga Gas

Keterangan Asumsi9% Biaya Inv. 250000000 HHV Gas Alam diasumsikan 1000 BTU/SCF25 Kap. 240000 HHV = LHV x 1.105

0.101806250518572 Ps = 1041.66666666667 1000 MMBTU = 1 MMSCF1 MMBTU = 293 kWh

4%25

0.024011962786455

6% Biaya Inv. 25000000025 Kap. 240000

0.078226718212274 Ps = 1041.66666666667

4%25

0.024011962786455

Fs=(i(1+i)^n)/((1+i)^n-1)

Fd=i/((1+i)^n-1)

Ps=(Biaya Total Investasi)/(Kapasitas Pembangkit)

Fs=(i(1+i)^n)/((1+i)^n-1)

Fd=i/((1+i)^n-1)


Fs=(i(1+i)^n)/((1+i)^n-1)

Fd=i/((1+i)^n-1)


12 %

9 %

6 %

Formula Perhitungan Biaya Bahan Bakar

DiketahuiPemakaian PLTGU Senoro 2 x 120 MW

Kebutuhan energi panas (kcal/tahun) 3,915,572,573,000 Energi listrik per tahun (kWh/tahun) 1,787,040,000 Kebutuhan gas pertahun (mmscf) 15,218 Kebutuhan gas 25 tahun (mmscf) 380,450

Energi Listrik per Tahun 1787040000240000

85%8760

Biaya Bahan Bakar 0.046Energi Listrik Pertahun 1787040000Kebutuhan gas per tahun 15218

6Keterangan Asumsi

HHV Gas Alam diasumsikan 1000 BTU/SCF 10001.1

1000 MMBTU = 1 MMSCF 11 MMBTU = 293 kWh 293

Formula Kelayakan Investasi 6%

DiketahuiCash In Flow (CIF)

Total Cost 0.0657 $ 657BPP 974Kapasitas Pembangkit 240000Faktor Kapasitas 85Suku Bunga 6%

Cash Out Flow (COF)Investasi

250000000 $ 2500000000000

No CIF COF NPV BCR1 56649168 250000000 (196,557,389) 566491682 (196,557,389) (146,139,831) 1132983363 (146,139,831) (98,576,097) 1699475044 (98,576,097) (53,704,650) 2265966725 (53,704,650) (11,373,096) 2832458406 (11,373,096) 28,562,332 3398950087 28,562,332 66,237,264 3965441768 66,237,264 101,779,653 4531933449 101,779,653 135,310,208 509842512

10 135,310,208 166,942,808 56649168011 166,942,808 196,784,883 62314084812 196,784,883 224,937,784 67979001613 224,937,784 251,497,124 73643918414 251,497,124 276,553,106 79308835215 276,553,106 300,190,825 84973752016 300,190,825 322,490,559 90638668817 322,490,559 343,528,044 96303585618 343,528,044 363,374,729 101968502419 363,374,729 382,098,016 107633419220 382,098,016 399,761,494 113298336021 399,761,494 416,425,153 118963252822 416,425,153 432,145,586 124628169623 432,145,586 446,976,183 130293086424 446,976,183 460,967,312 135958003225 460,967,312 474,166,491 1416229200


Diketahui

Cash In Flow (CIF)Total Cost 0.069 $ 690BPP 974Kapasitas Pembangkit 240000Faktor Kapasitas 85Suku Bunga 9%


250000000 $ 2500000000000

No CIF COF NPV BCR1 50751936 250000000 (203,438,591) 507519362 (203,438,591) (160,721,702) 1015038723 (160,721,702) (121,531,895) 1522558084 (121,531,895) (85,577,944) 2030077445 (85,577,944) (52,592,668) 2537596806 (52,592,668) (22,330,947) 3045116167 (22,330,947) 5,432,100 3552635528 5,432,100 30,902,785 4060154889 30,902,785 54,270,387 456767424

10 54,270,387 75,708,553 50751936011 75,708,553 95,376,595 55827129612 95,376,595 113,420,671 60902323213 113,420,671 129,974,869 65977516814 129,974,869 145,162,206 71052710415 145,162,206 159,095,543 76127904016 159,095,543 171,878,421 81203097617 171,878,421 183,605,832 86278291218 183,605,832 194,364,925 91353484819 194,364,925 204,235,652 96428678420 204,235,652 213,291,366 101503872021 213,291,366 221,599,359 106579065622 221,599,359 229,221,372 111654259223 229,221,372 236,214,044 116729452824 236,214,044 242,629,339 121804646425 242,629,339 248,514,931 1268798400


DiketahuiCash In Flow (CIF)

Total Cost 0.0725 $ 725BPP 974Kapasitas Pembangkit 240000

Faktor Kapasitas 85Suku Bunga 12%


250000000 $ 2500000000000

No CIF COF NPV BCR1 44497296 250000000 (210,270,271) 444972962 (210,270,271) (174,797,299) 889945923 (174,797,299) (143,125,003) 1334918884 (143,125,003) (114,846,167) 1779891845 (114,846,167) (89,597,206) 2224864806 (89,597,206) (67,053,491) 2669837767 (67,053,491) (46,925,174) 3114810728 (46,925,174) (28,953,463) 3559783689 (28,953,463) (12,907,292) 400475664

10 (12,907,292) 1,419,647 44497296011 1,419,647 14,211,556 48947025612 14,211,556 25,632,903 53396755213 25,632,903 35,830,535 57846484814 35,830,535 44,935,564 62296214415 44,935,564 53,065,053 66745944016 53,065,053 60,323,526 71195673617 60,323,526 66,804,305 75645403218 66,804,305 72,590,716 80095132819 72,590,716 77,757,153 84544862420 77,757,153 82,370,044 88994592021 82,370,044 86,488,696 93444321622 86,488,696 90,166,065 97894051223 90,166,065 93,449,429 102343780824 93,449,429 96,381,005 106793510425 96,381,005 98,998,483 1112432400


DiketahuiCash In Flow (CIF) Rp566491680000.000 $56649168.000

Rp Keuntungan Perusahaan ( BPP - Total Cost )Rp Rp317.000

kWh Kapasitas Output ( Kapasitas x Faktor Kap x Jam )% 1787040000

6% Kurs US$ (Rp) 10000Cash Out Flow (COF)

Investasi2500000000000 Rp

BCR ROI NPV56649168 Rp (.773)

113298336 Rp (.547)169947504 Rp (.320)226596672 Rp (.094) 474,166,491 283245840 Rp .133 339895008 Rp .360 BCR396544176 Rp .586 453193344 Rp .813 509842512 Rp 1.039 566491680 Rp 1.266 18,410,979,600 623140848 Rp 1.493 3.638.381 %679790016 Rp 1.719 736439184 Rp 1.946 ROI793088352 Rp 2.172 849737520 Rp 2.399 906386688 Rp 2.626 963035856 Rp 2.852 466

1019685024 Rp 3.079 1076334192 Rp 3.305 PP 4.4131132983360 Rp 3.532 1189632528 Rp 3.759 1246281696 Rp 3.985 1302930864 Rp 4.212 1359580032 Rp 4.438 1416229200 Rp 4.665


Diketahui

NPV=∑_(t=0)^n▒〖〖 CIF〗 _t/(1+K)^t -COF〗

BCR=〖 Benefit〗 _t/(Investment Cost)

ROI=∑_t^n▒〖〖 Benefit〗 _t -Invest Cost〗 _t/(Invest Cost)

6 %

Cash In Flow (CIF) Rp507519360000.000 $50751936.000Rp Keuntungan Perusahaan ( BPP - Total Cost )Rp Rp284.000

kWh Kapasitas Output ( Kapasitas x Faktor Kap x Jam )% 1787040000

9% Kurs US$ (Rp) 10000Cash Out Flow (COF)

Investasi2500000000000 Rp

BCR ROI NPV50751936 Rp (.797)

101503872 Rp (.594)152255808 Rp (.391)203007744 Rp (.188) 248,514,931 253759680 Rp .015 304511616 Rp .218 BCR355263552 Rp .421 406015488 Rp .624 456767424 Rp .827 507519360 Rp 1.030 16,494,379,200 558271296 Rp 1.233 7.139.84 %609023232 Rp 1.436 659775168 Rp 1.639 ROI710527104 Rp 1.842 761279040 Rp 2.045 812030976 Rp 2.248 862782912 Rp 2.451 408 913534848 Rp 2.654 964286784 Rp 2.857 PP 4.926

1015038720 Rp 3.060 1065790656 Rp 3.263 1116542592 Rp 3.466 1167294528 Rp 3.669 1218046464 Rp 3.872 1268798400 Rp 4.075


DiketahuiCash In Flow (CIF) Rp444972960000.000 $44497296.000

Rp Keuntungan Perusahaan ( BPP - Total Cost )Rp Rp249.000

kWh Kapasitas Output ( Kapasitas x Faktor Kap x Jam )

NPV=∑_(t=0)^n▒〖〖 CIF〗 _t/(1+K)^t -COF〗



9 %

% 178704000012% Kurs US$ (Rp) 10000


2500000000000 Rp

BCR ROI NPV44497296 Rp (.822)88994592 Rp (.644)

133491888 Rp (.466)177989184 Rp (.288) 98,998,483 222486480 Rp (.110)266983776 Rp .068 BCR311481072 Rp .246 355978368 Rp .424 400475664 Rp .602 444972960 Rp .780 14,461,621,200 489470256 Rp .958 54.997.44 %533967552 Rp 1.136 578464848 Rp 1.314 ROI622962144 Rp 1.492 667459440 Rp 1.670 711956736 Rp 1.848 756454032 Rp 2.026 345 800951328 Rp 2.204 845448624 Rp 2.382 PP 5.618889945920 Rp 2.560 934443216 Rp 2.738 978940512 Rp 2.916

1023437808 Rp 3.094 1067935104 Rp 3.272 1112432400 Rp 3.450

NPV=∑_(t=0)^n▒〖〖 CIF〗 _t/(1+K)^t -COF〗



12 %

Analisa Senoro

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