ALASAN PAKISTAN MELAKUKAN UJI COBA RUDAL TAHUN 2012

SKRIPSI

Disusun dan diajukan untuk memenuhi salah satu syarat memperoleh gelar Sarjana Ilmu Politik (S.IP) Strata-1

GUSTI SOVIA FATURAHMAN

201310360311168

PROGRAM STUDI HUBUNGAN INTERNASIONAL

FAKULTAS ILMU SOSIAL DAN ILMU POLITIK

UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH MALANG

2017

LEMBAR PENGESAHAN

Nama : Gusti Sovia Faturahman

NIM : 201310360311168

Program Studi : Hubungan Internasional

Fakultas : Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik

Judul Skripsi : Alasan Pakistan Melakukan Uji Coba Rudal Tahun 2012

Telah dipertahankan di hadapan Dewan Penguji Ujian Skripsi

Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik

Program Studi Hubungan Internasional

dan dinyatakan LULUS

Pada hari : Rabu, 25 Oktober 2017

Tempat : Kantor Jurusan Hubungan Internasional UMM

Mengesahkan,

Dekan FISIP-UMM

(Dr. Rinikso Kartono, M.Si.)

Dewan Penguji :

1. Najamuddin Khairur Rijal, M.Hub.Int. Penguji I ( )

2. Dion Maulana Prasetya, M.Hub.Int. Penguji II ( )

3. Ruli Inayah Ramadhoan, M.Si. Pembimbing I ( )

4. Haryo Prasodjo, M.A. Pembimbing II ( )

KATA PENGANTAR

Alhamdulillahirabbil’alamin. Puji syukur kehadirat Allah SWT atas limpahan

rahmat dan hidayah-Nya sehingga penulis mampu menyelesaikan skripsi yang

berjudul “Alasan Pakistan Melakukan Uji Coba Rudal Tahun 2012”. Adapun

penyusunan skripsi ini dilatarbelakangi oleh ketertarikan dan rasa keingintahuan

penulis tentang senjata pemusnah massal, khususnya nuklir. Selain itu, penulis yang

telah menempuh mata kuliah HI Asia Selatan mempelajari adanya persaingan

nuklir antara India dan Pakistan sehingga semakin mendorong penulis untuk

meneliti lebih lanjut tentang persaingan nuklir antara kedua negara tersebut.

Penyusunan skripsi ini merupakan tugas akhir sebagai bagian dari perjuangan

penulis untuk menempuh pendidikan Strata-1 dalam program studi Ilmu Hubungan

Internasional di Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang. Perjuangan penulis selama

menjalani kehidupan di bangku kuliah tidak terlepas dari kehadiran berbagai pihak.

Oleh karena itu, pada kesempatan ini penulis mengucapkan terima kasih kepada

pihak yang telah memberikan banyak hal, baik berupa pengetahuan tentang

berbagai hal yang tidak penulis ketahui sebelumnya, pelajaran hidup yang

disampaikan secara langsung maupun tidak langsung, serta dukungan materi yang

diberikan. Ucapan terima kasih yang pertama untuk keluarga terhebat sepanjang

sejarah bagi penulis (Ibu, Ayah, Kakak).

Ucapan terima kasih yang kedua untuk para tenaga pendidik yang telah

bersedia membimbing penulis selama menempuh pendidikan di perguruan tinggi

(Pak Gonda, Pak Ruli, Pak Anwar, Mrs. Onny, Ms. Rifa, Bu Peggy, Bu Purwati,

Mr. Tamas, Bu Su’adah, Pak Nurhakim, Pak Primadi, Mr. Yarooslav, Mr. Ali Musa,

Pak Tedjo, Pak Zein, Pak Nurudin, Bu Helmia, Pak Syaprin, Pak Zainal, Pak Bayu,

Bu Juli, Mr. Ibe, Mr. Sugeng, Bu Ningrum, Pak Hafid Adim, Pak Oman, Ms. Maria,

Ms. Morgan, Pak Yana, Pak Havidz Ageng, Pak Najamuddin, Pak Fatur, Mr. Arthur,

Bu Yekti, Pak Haryo, Pak Tony, Pak Lukmanul Hakim, Pak Dedik, Pak Dion, Bu

Dyah, 시티 선생님, 키키 언니, 아디사 언니, 하나 선생님).

Ucapan terima kasih yang ketiga untuk orang-orang yang penulis kenal

sebagai sosok sahabat, teman, kakak, adik, orang tua, psikolog, matahari, guru,

diary, pemadam kebakaran, hujan, api, angin, laut, musik, bunga, obat, gula, langit

(Alam Christian, Desy Ariyanti, Nurhikmah, Husnul Chotimah Rahanyamtel, Dewi

Ayu Septawati, Anggun Dwi Cahyani, Bill Alexander, Ahmad Fauzan Zaman,

Rosyidah Anissa, Amelia Dewi Retnowati, Mella Silviana, Rufanis Khalisah Putri,

Ismiati Ainun Syarifuddin, Restya Herdiyanti, Nasikhah Nabilah, Yuli Asri, Yeni

Diah Pratiwi, Roshi Hana, Prameswari Widan, Winda Nur Qomariyah, dan anggota

kelompok 18 Pesmaba 2013, Class.HIC, Ibnu Sina P2KK, KKN 20 tahun 2016,

The Osmanthus, IRO, dan 방탄소년단).

Penulis menyadari bahwa kehadiran pihak-pihak tersebut menjadi inspirasi

dan motivasi bagi penulis untuk menyelesaikan skripsi ini. Akhir kata, semoga

skripsi ini dapat memberikan sumbangan pemikiran dan inspirasi bagi pembaca.

Wassalamualaikum, Wr. Wb.

DAFTAR ISI

Sampul

Lembar Pengesahan ..................................................................................... i

Lembar Persetujuan Skripsi ....................................................................... ii

Berita Acara Bimbingan Skripsi ................................................................. iii

Pernyataan Orisinalitas ............................................................................... iv

Kata Pengantar ............................................................................................ v

Motto ............................................................................................................ vii

Halaman Persembahan ................................................................................ viii

Abstraksi ...................................................................................................... ix

Abstract ......................................................................................................... x

Daftar Isi ...................................................................................................... xi

Daftar Tabel ................................................................................................. xiii

Daftar Gambar ............................................................................................. xiv

Daftar Grafik ............................................................................................... xv

Daftar Singkatan .......................................................................................... xvi

Bab I Pendahuluan

1.1 Latar Belakang ..................................................................................... 1 1.2 Rumusan Masalah ................................................................................ 5 1.3 Tujuan Penelitian .................................................................................. 6 1.4 Manfaat Penelitian ................................................................................ 6

1.4.1 Manfaat Akademis ...................................................................... 6 1.4.2 Manfaat Praktis ........................................................................... 6

1.5 Penelitian Terdahulu ............................................................................. 7 1.6 Landasan Pemikiran ............................................................................ 19

1.6.1 Security Dilemma ....................................................................... 19 1.6.2 Model Aksi-Reaksi ..................................................................... 26

1.7 Metode Penelitian ................................................................................ 28 1.7.1 Jenis Penelitian ........................................................................... 28 1.7.2 Variabel Penelitian dan Level Analisa ........................................ 29 1.7.3 Teknik Pengumpulan Data........................................................... 30 1.7.4 Teknik Analisis Data ................................................................... 30 1.7.5 Ruang Lingkup Penelitian ........................................................... 31

1.7.5.1 Batasan Waktu ................................................................ 31 1.7.5.2 Batasan Materi ................................................................ 31

1.8 Hipotesis ............................................................................................. 32 1.9 Sistematika Penulisan .......................................................................... 32

Bab II Persaingan India-Pakistan Dalam Pengembangan Nuklir dan Isu

Kepemilikan ICBM India

2.1 Pengembangan Nuklir India ................................................................. 34 2.1.1 Sejarah Pengembangan Nuklir India ........................................... 35 2.1.2 Uji Coba Nuklir India ................................................................. 40

2.2 Pengembangan Nuklir Pakistan ........................................................... 48 2.2.1 Sejarah Pengembangan Nuklir Pakistan ...................................... 48 2.2.2 Uji Coba Nuklir Pakistan ............................................................ 51

2.3 Uji Coba Rudal Agni-5 India Tahun 2012 ............................................ 59 2.4 Reaksi Pakistan Terhadap Uji Coba Agni-5 India ................................ 71

Bab III Analisa Uji Coba Rudal Pakistan Tahun 2012 Sebagai Reaksi

Terhadap ICBM India

3.1 Persepsi Pakistan Terhadap Uji Coba Agni-5 India .............................. 77 3.2 Analisa Faktor Pembentuk Persepsi Ancaman Bagi Pakistan ............... 80

3.2.1 Agni-5 Sebagai Weapon Mass Destruction (WMD) .................... 80 3.2.2 Letak Geografis dan Hubungan India-Pakistan ............................ 86

3.3 Analisa Pertimbangan Uji Coba Rudal Pakistan Tahun 2012 ............... 93 3.4 Aksi-Reaksi Antara India-Pakistan Dalam Uji Coba

Nuklir dan Rudal ................................................................................. 96

Bab IV Penutup

4.1 Kesimpulan ........................................................................................ 105 4.2 Saran .................................................................................................. 106

Daftar Pustaka ............................................................................................. 107

DAFTAR TABEL

Tabel 1.1 Posisi Penelitian ............................................................................ 15 Tabel 1.2 Matriks Empat Dunia (Four Worlds) Robert Jervis ....................... 24 Tabel 2.1 Daftar Senjata Nuklir India ........................................................... 39 Tabel 2.2 Timeline Uji Coba Nuklir dan Rudal India .................................... 40 Tabel 2.3 Daftar Senjata Nuklir Pakistan ...................................................... 51 Tabel 2.4 Timeline Uji Coba Nuklir dan Rudal Pakistan ............................... 52 Tabel 2.5 ICBM yang Dikembangkan oleh Beberapa Negara ....................... 67

DAFTAR GAMBAR

Gambar 2.1 Kondisi Wilayah Uji Coba Nuklir Pokhran-I ............................ 43 Gambar 2.2 Kondisi Wilayah Uji Coba Nuklir Pokhran-II ........................... 44 Gambar 2.3 Kondisi Wilayah Uji Coba Nuklir Pokhran-II ........................... 45 Gambar 2.4 Uji Coba Rudal Agni-2 India .................................................... 46 Gambar 2.5 Uji Coba Rudal Ghauri-1 Pakistan ............................................ 54 Gambar 2.6 Kondisi Wilayah Uji Coba Nuklir Chagai ................................. 56 Gambar 2.7 Uji Coba Rudal Ghauri-2 Pakistan ............................................ 57 Gambar 2.8 Uji Coba Pertama Rudal Agni-5 ............................................... 60 Gambar 2.9 Perbandingan Bentuk Rudal India ............................................ 61 Gambar 2.10 Perbandingan Jarak Jangkau Rudal Agni .................................. 62 Gambar 2.11 Spesifikasi Rudal Agni-5 India ................................................. 64 Gambar 2.12 Rudal Agni-5 Dipamerkan Dalam Parade ................................. 66 Gambar 2.13 Uji Coba Rudal Shaheen-1A Pakistan ...................................... 71 Gambar 2.14 Jarak Jangkau Rudal Shaheen-1A ............................................. 72 Gambar 2.15 Uji Coba Rudal Ghaznavi Pakistan ........................................... 74 Gambar 2.16 Uji Coba Rudal Jelajah Ra’ad Pakistan ..................................... 75 Gambar 3.1 Perbatasan India-Pakistan ......................................................... 88 Gambar 3.2 Jarak Antara Pulau Wheeler dan Islamabad .............................. 91 Gambar 3.3 Pola Aksi-Reaksi India Pakistan dalam Uji Coba Rudal

Tahun 2012 .............................................................................. 96 Gambar 3.4 Pola Aksi-Reaksi Uji Coba Rudal-Nuklir India dan Pakistan

Tahun 1998-2012 .................................................................... 103

DAFTAR GRAFIK

Grafik 3.1 Intensitas Uji Coba Nuklir dan Rudal India-Pakistan .................... 102

DAFTAR SINGKATAN

ASFC (Army Strategic Forces Command) ASCCS (Automated Strategic Command and Control System) BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) DAE (Department of Atomic Energy) DCC (Defence Committee of the Cabinet) DRDO (Defense Research and Development Organization) GPS (Global Positioning System) IAEC (India Atomic Energy Comission) ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) KRL (Khan Research Laboratory) MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles) MRBM (Medium Range Ballistic Missile) MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) PAEC (Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission) RUDAL (Peluru Kendali) SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) SPD (Strategic Plans Division) SRBM (Short Range Ballistic Missile) WMD (Weapon Mass Destruction)

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Skripsi dan Tesis :

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