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Pertemuan 20Informasi Relevan Dalam Manajemen

Resiko

Matakuliah : J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen

Tahun : 2005

Versi : 01/00

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Learning Outcomes

Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa

akan mampu :

• Memahami pentingnya para pengambil keputusan untuk berani menghadapi ketidak pastian

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Outline Materi

• Perubahan lingkungan bisnis dan ekonomi

• Pengambilan keputusan dan balas jasa

• Pengertian ketidakpastian

• Alternatif keputusan dalam ketidakpastian

• Menjadi creative thinker

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The Changing Business Environment

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Decision Making

Identifying alternative courses of action.Identifying alternative courses of action.

Selecting an appropriate alternative.Selecting an appropriate alternative.

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Rewards and Sacrifices

In general, the aim of all decisionsIn general, the aim of all decisionsis to obtain some type of reward,is to obtain some type of reward,

either economic or personal.either economic or personal.

Reward requires sacrifice.Reward requires sacrifice.

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Opportunity Cost

It is the reward we give up becauseIt is the reward we give up becausewe choose a particular alternativewe choose a particular alternative

instead of another.instead of another.

Examining the relationship betweenExamining the relationship betweenrewards and sacrifices is known asrewards and sacrifices is known as

cost/benefit analysiscost/benefit analysis..

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Types of Rewards

ExtrinsicExtrinsic IntrinsicIntrinsic

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Coping with Uncertaintyand Risk

Uncertainty in any given decisionUncertainty in any given decisionsituation increases the chancessituation increases the chances

of making the wrong choice.of making the wrong choice.

The higher the degree ofThe higher the degree ofuncertainty, the greater the risk.uncertainty, the greater the risk.

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Routine and Non-routine Decisions

RoutineRoutinedecisionsdecisions

SituationSituationrecursrecurs

Non-routineNon-routinedecisionsdecisions

UnfamiliarUnfamiliarcircumstancescircumstances

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Uncertainty

One common technique for addressing the impact of uncertainty is

sensitivity analysis - a way to determine what would happen in a decision analysis if a key prediction or assumption proved to

be wrong.

One common technique for addressing the impact of uncertainty is

sensitivity analysis - a way to determine what would happen in a decision analysis if a key prediction or assumption proved to

be wrong.

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

• Maximax

• Maximin

• Equally likely (Laplace)

• Criterion of Realism

• Minimax

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Risk and Decision Making

Is the decision maker a Risk Seeker or Risk Adverse?

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21st Century Accountants

Attributes of 21st Century accountants

CommunicationSkills

InterpersonalSkills

IntellectualSkills

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Creative Thinking

• Creative thinking is the process of actively generating new ideas to discover solutions to a problem.

Creative

Thinkers

Inquisitive Mind(questioning

attitude)

Fluency(number of ideas generated for a

solution)

Flexibility(broad array of

ideas for solving a problem)

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Creative Thinking StrategiesBrainstorming..

generating plenty of “harebrained” as well as

reasonably possible ideas

Piggybacking… generating new ideas

from other ideas

Drawing analogies… connecting facts, ideas, or experiences that are normally considered separate

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Questions for CreativeThinkers to Ask

• What is it about this idea that stimulates my curiosity?

• Can I come up with more ideas?

• Can I come up with a great variety of ideas?

• Do I develop ideas independently and not eliminate them because of social influences?

• Do I consider several alternatives before acting?

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Critical Thinking

• Critical thinking is the process that evaluates the ideas generated by creative thinking.

Critical Thinkers Have Grit!

Independent (in process of

evaluating ideas)

Objectivity(being unbiased in the

evaluation process; valuing truth)

Tolerate Ambiguity/Willingly

Defer Judgment(to collect information

and evaluate solutions)

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Questions for CriticalThinkers to Ask

• If an issue is controversial, do I accept my first

reaction or do I debate the issue in my head

first?

• Do I tend to reject new evidence that

contradicts my current opinion on the subject,

or do I evaluate the new evidence and then

decide whether to accept it or reject it?

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Questions for CriticalThinkers to Ask

• When I am trying to solve a problem, do I

usually accept the first solution that “works” or

do I generate multiple solutions and then

choose the best one?

• When others disagree with me, do I usually

listen to them with an open mind and critically

evaluate their ideas, or do I try or defend my

own ideas?

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Critical Thinking and Logic

• Critical thinkers use a variety of skills in the problem-solving process. Among these skills is the ability to use logic.

LOGIC

Inductive logic Reasoning that moves from a specific conclusion to a general statement.

Reasoning that moves from a

general statement to a specific

conclusion. Deductive logic